On the poster claiming the much quoted Rabbi is a Brexit-loving troll, Daniel Finkelstein takes the view that:
“As this has been sent to me several times by people, please note that this is the standard greeting of a prime minister on taking office. It is offensive nonsense to suggest it was a political statement of support.”
Chuka would be an excellent leader. Despite his flaws he is articulate, telegenic, persuasive. He’d also be the first BAME major party leader. A coup for the LDs. Sadly for them he is v unlikely to win.
I agree. Not that he would be unlikely to win (I think he might well) but that he would be a great choice for the LDs. He's not exactly choc-a-bloc with political principle but he is a VERY effective and articulate communicator. I know actual specific people in my real life - 2 of them, they're a married couple - who would vote for any party led by Chuka.
Chuka would be an excellent leader. Despite his flaws he is articulate, telegenic, persuasive. He’d also be the first BAME major party leader. A coup for the LDs. Sadly for them he is v unlikely to win.
I agree. Not that he would be unlikely to win (I think he might well) but that he would be a great choice for the LDs. He's not exactly choc-a-bloc with political principle but he is a VERY effective and articulate communicator. I know actual specific people in my real life - 2 of them, they're a married couple - who would vote for any party led by Chuka.
The LibDems should have shoved Chukka in at Sheffield Hallam. It shows a lack of ruthlessness and/or naivete on the part of the LibDems a) not to recognise his star quality and b) not to shunt the excellent Laura Gordon to a development seat.
Never mind the NHS , the documents reveal the UK will be a lap dog vassal stats told what to do by the lunatic in the WH.
Essentially the UK has to do what it’s told on international relations otherwise it doesn’t get its trade deal .
They really don’t say that. This is why read-outs of negotiations aren’t published. People don’t understand them.
But the passage of the document clearly suggests that in international forums the UK could complicate a trade deal if it dares to go against the US line .
Had 2 ladies knock on the door dressed all in red and thought it might be canvassers . . . but no it was Jehovah's Witnesses. Responded quite politely to me saying "no thanks I'm an atheist" rather than trying to continue the conversation as I've had before.
“quite politely to MY saying “no thanks..”
One case where correct grammar is useful. Your original statement is unclear. It could be the Jehovah’s Witness declaring atheism.
You're right that was a typo. But how many people would read that and think the dook-knocking Jehovah's Witnesses were declaring themselves to be atheist? Rather than that being my response?
I know I can be argumentative at times but I've never bothered trying to convince Jehovah's at the doorstep, if I'd gotten them to renounce their faith while at my door that would probably be a much more surprising story!
From the screen shot of YouGov model it is clear the trend is with Labour. It is unclear how the Tories change that....hung parliament incoming.
Up slightly over the campaign period, bu down in the last week. Fits with the polls really.
It all rather depends how much ground you think Labour must make up.
I find the movement in seats vs. polling interesting. Suggests some tight margins when such small polling movements have that impact.
It looks consistent with both the percentages and the seat numbers changing by something on the order of one percent per day. (By which I mean a hundredth for the percentages, not a percentage point.)
I'd be thrilled at these seat totals. Would put me in overall profit before a single constituency has been called. Might not be relying on the Friday afternoon late results to rescue me after all.
Sadly I think the next two weeks will see my position deteriorate substantially.
I'd be thrilled at these seat totals. Would put me in overall profit before a single constituency has been called. Might not be relying on the Friday afternoon late results to rescue me after all.
Sadly I think the next two weeks will see my position deteriorate substantially.
The fact that almost every Tory on this board would take that result must give you a sign of nerves...
You've been a bit 'ratty' today. Maybe was simply using a big word to express that. Or, as those prone to do so say, being sesquipedalian. I like to give them all the benefit of the doubt. Even the ones that don't deserve it.
Yes, "ratty", perfect description. Probably still smarting from Jeremy not taking my advice on what not to do when under the Neil cosh. I specifically told him (email to HQ) not to keep sniffing and fiddling with his beard and glasses. Yet he spent more time doing that than not. Starting to doubt whether he actually reads what I send in. Or if he does, that it fails to register. But anyway. Time for some Buddhism. Catch you anon.
I'd be thrilled at these seat totals. Would put me in overall profit before a single constituency has been called. Might not be relying on the Friday afternoon late results to rescue me after all.
Sadly I think the next two weeks will see my position deteriorate substantially.
The fact that almost every Tory on this board would take that result must give you a sign of nerves...
All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
I’d have thought that the day before the launch of a party’s race and faith manifesto is exactly the time for a religious leader to make a comment about that party’s attitude to one particular faith/race. You also choose to ignore what the Hindu Council UK wrote about Labour - “It is a sad state of affairs that a major political party in our country which used to be a progressive socialist voice has veered towards what almost is a fascist ideology.".
Corbyn walks into a bear trap, hoping Johnson would do the same.
Clever move from CCHQ for once!
So instead of everyone saying AN crushed Johnson just like he did Corbyn et al he has isolated himself as the only one not willing to face journalistic scrutiny. And for every interview for the next week he will be asked why.
All Johnson has to do like May before him is hide from the backlash, pretend that he really had something more pressing on and watch the narrowing polls expand again as everyone realises that yes he is the man for the job.
Wow. We've had 7 Lib Dem leaflets and 1 Con so far in what's nominally a very safe Con seat. Nothing at all from Labour, which obviously hasn't stopped them whining about "the Lib Dems should have stood down for us".
But the passage of the document clearly suggests that in international forums the UK could complicate a trade deal if it dares to go against the US line .
That's a statement of the bleedin' obvious. To take a simple example, to do any kind of trade deal with the EU we'll have to sign up to keeping their regulations for Protected Designations of Origin (and a jolly good thing too). The US doesn't like these, because they want to be able to sell us fraudulent products masquerading as Parmesan etc. Clearly we can't please both. https://www.forbes.com/sites/larryolmsted/2012/11/19/the-dark-side-of-parmesan-cheese-what-you-dont-know-might-hurt-you/#67770a8c4645 The other crucial point to note is that, because of considerations like this, it follows that we can't finalise anything much in the way of trade deals outside the EU until we've finalised the relationship with the EU. So don't hold your breath for that US trade deal!
Corbyn walks into a bear trap, hoping Johnson would do the same.
Clever move from CCHQ for once!
So instead of everyone saying AN crushed Johnson just like he did Corbyn et al he has isolated himself as the only one not willing to face journalistic scrutiny. And for every interview for the next week he will be asked why.
All Johnson has to do like May before him is hide from the backlash, pretend that he really had something more pressing on and watch the narrowing polls expand again as everyone realises that yes he is the man for the job.
He should do it. I think the downsides of not going outweigh the downsides of going. As bad as the Corbyn interview was, it won't change anything.
He has, and was said to be at death's door some year ago, which I recall caused him some consternation when it was publicised.
My Nan died in the mid 1980s, and I remember her thinking Clive James had died because there was a show on TV that night called "The Late Clive James"... he looked old then!
All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
I’d have thought that the day before the launch of a party’s race and faith manifesto is exactly the time for a religious leader to make a comment about that party’s attitude to one particular faith/race. You also choose to ignore what the Hindu Council UK wrote about Labour - “It is a sad state of affairs that a major political party in our country which used to be a progressive socialist voice has veered towards what almost is a fascist ideology.".
Considering that the Hindu Council's objection to the Labour party is that the LP opposed Modi's closing of social media, locking up of activists and withdrawal of autonomy for Kashmir, so presumably not fascist enough for them!
Corbyn walks into a bear trap, hoping Johnson would do the same.
Clever move from CCHQ for once!
So instead of everyone saying AN crushed Johnson just like he did Corbyn et al he has isolated himself as the only one not willing to face journalistic scrutiny. And for every interview for the next week he will be asked why.
All Johnson has to do like May before him is hide from the backlash, pretend that he really had something more pressing on and watch the narrowing polls expand again as everyone realises that yes he is the man for the job.
He should do it. I think the downsides of not going outweigh the downsides of going. As bad as the Corbyn interview was, it won't change anything.
Of course he should do it. Just not until most of the postal votes are back...
Corbyn walks into a bear trap, hoping Johnson would do the same.
Clever move from CCHQ for once!
So instead of everyone saying AN crushed Johnson just like he did Corbyn et al he has isolated himself as the only one not willing to face journalistic scrutiny. And for every interview for the next week he will be asked why.
All Johnson has to do like May before him is hide from the backlash, pretend that he really had something more pressing on and watch the narrowing polls expand again as everyone realises that yes he is the man for the job.
Has he swerved it? I thought he should. Wont shift one vote
Nobody is denying the US pays more fot drugs. What is fake news is that we will pay US drug prices. That isn't going to happen.
You are probably right. The US wont do a trade deal without it though, and the US trade deal was one of the supposed prizes of Brexit.
Depends on the President. President Warren might use it to reduce US drug prices!
The Senate is unlikely to break democrat so Pres Warren likely also means no trade deal as the senate will block whatever she wants. I think the probability of getting a US trade deal by 2025 is sub 10%, and if we get one, it will be minimalistic simply to allow Johnson and Trump to claim personal success rather than achieve any benefit for either of the nations they are supposed to represent.
Nobody is denying the US pays more fot drugs. What is fake news is that we will pay US drug prices. That isn't going to happen.
You are probably right. The US wont do a trade deal without it though, and the US trade deal was one of the supposed prizes of Brexit.
Agriculture and healthcare are the objectives for the US in a trade deal with us. The only other area where there are substantive tariff or non tariff barriers is autos, and most of the cars produced in the US are too big to park in a supermarket car park over here. The UK seems very keen on a deal, and if it is to be done it will have to involve us moving towards their food rules (bad news for UK food producers who will then be shut out of EU markets) or giving ground on things like drug prices. A Tory govt with a big majority would I am sure try to push through a deeply unpopular trade deal with the US as part of a package of Thatcherite measures presented as "making Brexit work", alongside deregulation in labour and financial markets, maybe as economic shock therapy in response to a recession in 2021 triggered by leaving the single market on WTO terms. It is all fairly easy to predict. Vote Labour if you don't want it to happen.
Caveat on YouGov MRP: has any one pollster / polling method ever gotten the result spot on in two consecutive elections? If not, then shouldn't we discount its accuracy for that reason alone, despite the temptation to believe it because it was so good last time?
Caveat on YouGov MRP: has any one pollster / polling method ever gotten the result spot on in two consecutive elections? If not, then shouldn't we discount its accuracy for that reason alone, despite the temptation to believe it because it was so good last time?
From the screen shot of YouGov model it is clear the trend is with Labour. It is unclear how the Tories change that....hung parliament incoming.
I must be looking at different polling numbers to you.
I think we are going to see lead down to single figures this week and then Labour could throw out some more bribes / smear stories to try and to get it down to 5-6% by GE.
The Tories need to come up with something. So far again they have let Labour get away with a manifesto of horseshit and their own offering is totally forgettable.
Corbyn walks into a bear trap, hoping Johnson would do the same.
Clever move from CCHQ for once!
So instead of everyone saying AN crushed Johnson just like he did Corbyn et al he has isolated himself as the only one not willing to face journalistic scrutiny. And for every interview for the next week he will be asked why.
All Johnson has to do like May before him is hide from the backlash, pretend that he really had something more pressing on and watch the narrowing polls expand again as everyone realises that yes he is the man for the job.
He should do it. I think the downsides of not going outweigh the downsides of going. As bad as the Corbyn interview was, it won't change anything.
Of course he should do it. Just not until most of the postal votes are back...
Postal voters aren’t generally floating voters.
Those postal voters who send their votes back straight away certainly aren’t.
I have read the various comments about the BFB MRP (and other MRPs) with some interest. Why people insist on placing any reliance on individual constituency forecasts is beyond me. Whilst these models are a big step forward in forecasting overall results, they have similar weaknesses to traditional models in looking locally. In many ways they are similar to the general linearised models used in insurance pricing (and now superseded by more sophisticated models). These used many more variables, had a dataset comprising millions (often tens of millions) of risk years (rather than tens of thousands of respondents) - and still there were significant variances between postcodes (their equivalent to constituencies) which were forecast to produce a similar result.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
From the screen shot of YouGov model it is clear the trend is with Labour. It is unclear how the Tories change that....hung parliament incoming.
I must be looking at different polling numbers to you.
I think we are going to see lead down to single figures this week and then Labour could throw out some more bribes / smear stories to try and to get it down to 5-6% by GE.
The Tories need to come up with something. So far again they have let Labour get away with a manifesto of horseshit and their own offering is totally forgettable.
Labour admitting taxes could go up for those on lower incomes if they got in led the morning news cycle, along with the antisemitism today.
From the screen shot of YouGov model it is clear the trend is with Labour. It is unclear how the Tories change that....hung parliament incoming.
I must be looking at different polling numbers to you.
I think we are going to see lead down to single figures this week and then Labour could throw out some more bribes / smear stories to try and to get it down to 5-6% by GE.
The Tories need to come up with something. So far again they have let Labour get away with a manifesto of horseshit and their own offering is totally forgettable.
Labour admitting taxes could go up for those on lower incomes if they got in led the morning news cycle, along with the antisemitism today.
It is now gone though. We are all about the fake news Tories sell the NHS and all the deaths of well known people.
Given the amount of publicity Led by Donkeys achieved and the Tories hired the Kiwi Shitsters, why no clever posters etc. It is clear now with social media, you just put up one poster and then tweet it / retweet it. The more outrageous the better.
Caveat on YouGov MRP: has any one pollster / polling method ever gotten the result spot on in two consecutive elections? If not, then shouldn't we discount its accuracy for that reason alone, despite the temptation to believe it because it was so good last time?
I think the other MRP in 2017 predicted a May majority of 50, but has been buried by history. It is a method but isn't magic.
Never mind the NHS , the documents reveal the UK will be a lap dog vassal stats told what to do by the lunatic in the WH.
Essentially the UK has to do what it’s told on international relations otherwise it doesn’t get its trade deal .
They really don’t say that. This is why read-outs of negotiations aren’t published. People don’t understand them.
But the passage of the document clearly suggests that in international forums the UK could complicate a trade deal if it dares to go against the US line .
So basically be a lapdog !
It’s a readout. Someone is flagging risks/issues/opportunities. And to be honest saying that if you piss someone off they might not do your favours us stating the obvious. Nothing here reflects policy.
Also, I don't really do social media, and maybe I am not the target audience, but where is all the micro-targeted Facebook ads? So far, it has all just been traditional style Lib Dem paper propaganda.
I have read the various comments about the BFB MRP (and other MRPs) with some interest. Why people insist on placing any reliance on individual constituency forecasts is beyond me. Whilst these models are a big step forward in forecasting overall results, they have similar weaknesses to traditional models in looking locally. In many ways they are similar to the general linearised models used in insurance pricing (and now superseded by more sophisticated models). These used many more variables, had a dataset comprising millions (often tens of millions) of risk years (rather than tens of thousands of respondents) - and still there were significant variances between postcodes (their equivalent to constituencies) which were forecast to produce a similar result.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
I would suggest that another difference from the insurance models and political MRPs is that the quality and quantity of data from which the model can learn is vastly different. The problem with political models is that each electorate is different and the issues valued by the electorate at each election are different. So the value of historic data in the political context, unlike the insurance context, is diminished.
The BBC are acting very badly by telling Labour that Johnson was confirmed for AN when he wasn’t .
At least if he had been confirmed then if he then pulled out he might get some bad headlines , now he can just say that his busy timetable meant he couldn’t fit it in.
From the screen shot of YouGov model it is clear the trend is with Labour. It is unclear how the Tories change that....hung parliament incoming.
I must be looking at different polling numbers to you.
I think we are going to see lead down to single figures this week and then Labour could throw out some more bribes / smear stories to try and to get it down to 5-6% by GE.
The Tories need to come up with something. So far again they have let Labour get away with a manifesto of horseshit and their own offering is totally forgettable.
Three elections in a row and Tories have nothing to offer us but Brexit, which itself offers us nothing.
The BBC are acting very badly by telling Labour that Johnson was confirmed for AN when he wasn’t .
At least if he had been confirmed then if he then pulled out he might get some bad headlines , now he can just say that his busy timetable meant he couldn’t fit it in.
Well, you can't say we didn't warn the left about the dangers of state-owned industries...
All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.
I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.
I’d have thought that the day before the launch of a party’s race and faith manifesto is exactly the time for a religious leader to make a comment about that party’s attitude to one particular faith/race. You also choose to ignore what the Hindu Council UK wrote about Labour - “It is a sad state of affairs that a major political party in our country which used to be a progressive socialist voice has veered towards what almost is a fascist ideology.".
Considering that the Hindu Council's objection to the Labour party is that the LP opposed Modi's closing of social media, locking up of activists and withdrawal of autonomy for Kashmir, so presumably not fascist enough for them!
That may well be so. But interesting to note nonetheless - especially when 2 years ago Labour was claiming that only they could unlock the potential of ethnic minorities. For years Labour was pretty much the default party for British Jews. Now it isn’t. Other minorities might well look at Labour and wonder: “Could we be thrown over too, if it suits a particular leader?”
Comments
Conclusion? Shut up and get Corbyn on the telly....
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1199720916151914496?s=20
I like to give them all the benefit of the doubt. Even the ones that don't deserve it.
RIP.
“As this has been sent to me several times by people, please note that this is the standard greeting of a prime minister on taking office. It is offensive nonsense to suggest it was a political statement of support.”
Who to believe?
Very sad news - he made some brilliant TV, alongside his writing.
Bold of Trump to claim credit for the passage of time..
Essentially the UK has to do what it’s told on international relations otherwise it doesn’t get its trade deal .
Corbyn walks into a bear trap, hoping Johnson would do the same.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/clive-james-late-reading-from-spotted-dick-to-the-bittersweet-joy-of-the-morbid-joke
It all rather depends how much ground you think Labour must make up.
So basically be a lapdog !
I know I can be argumentative at times but I've never bothered trying to convince Jehovah's at the doorstep, if I'd gotten them to renounce their faith while at my door that would probably be a much more surprising story!
Alongside a BXP leaflet and a Tory Anti-corbyn leaflet that focused on tax rises rather than Brexit.
Sadly I think the next two weeks will see my position deteriorate substantially.
Of course Bozo is going to chicken out .
It is an extraordinarily unfortunate position to be in, surrounded by convicted criminals yet as pure and innocent as Trump.
... this is an OPINION POLL!!! It's not even an exit poll.
There's another 2 weeks of campaigning even if postal votes will start filtering out soon.
Labour have some momentum though I reckon the antisemitism attack of yesterday will dent them (probably temporarily).
You also choose to ignore what the Hindu Council UK wrote about Labour - “It is a sad state of affairs that a major political party in our country which used to be a progressive socialist voice has veered towards what almost is a fascist ideology.".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-Ka6e8hPSk
The Betfair markets are indicating so with another lay on Con Maj 340+ being taken out at 1.8.
If I can close out the Con Maj lay at some point between now and the 12th then the dream scenario would be the Tories on 339.
All Johnson has to do like May before him is hide from the backlash, pretend that he really had something more pressing on and watch the narrowing polls expand again as everyone realises that yes he is the man for the job.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/larryolmsted/2012/11/19/the-dark-side-of-parmesan-cheese-what-you-dont-know-might-hurt-you/#67770a8c4645
The other crucial point to note is that, because of considerations like this, it follows that we can't finalise anything much in the way of trade deals outside the EU until we've finalised the relationship with the EU. So don't hold your breath for that US trade deal!
A Tory govt with a big majority would I am sure try to push through a deeply unpopular trade deal with the US as part of a package of Thatcherite measures presented as "making Brexit work", alongside deregulation in labour and financial markets, maybe as economic shock therapy in response to a recession in 2021 triggered by leaving the single market on WTO terms. It is all fairly easy to predict. Vote Labour if you don't want it to happen.
It is an opinion, which is shared by most informed observers of US politics.
The Tories need to come up with something. So far again they have let Labour get away with a manifesto of horseshit and their own offering is totally forgettable.
Those postal voters who send their votes back straight away certainly aren’t.
I suggest everyone focus on the big picture from MRPs and not get excited about individual constituencies. The variations will largely cancel out overall (although this may not be the case for smaller parties where factors not in use may become more important - the equivalent of age tails in pricing).
Given the amount of publicity Led by Donkeys achieved and the Tories hired the Kiwi Shitsters, why no clever posters etc. It is clear now with social media, you just put up one poster and then tweet it / retweet it. The more outrageous the better.
At least if he had been confirmed then if he then pulled out he might get some bad headlines , now he can just say that his busy timetable meant he couldn’t fit it in.
For years Labour was pretty much the default party for British Jews. Now it isn’t. Other minorities might well look at Labour and wonder: “Could we be thrown over too, if it suits a particular leader?”