politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ra

roserees64 said:

Well, well, it turns out that rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is a supporter of Boris Johnson. It's no coincidence that the Rabbi's statement came out on the eve of the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto.

Corbyn's long record of campaigning against anti-semitism is being airbrushed from history.

Rabbi Mirvis is probably a good man but he is also an open supporter of Boris Johnson and he has in the past tweeted a photo of himself with Boris. This was done to congratulate him on becoming Tory leader.

Yeah go on, smear him, cover up your boys racism like a good drone.

Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...

Ave_it said:

Should LAB be disqualified in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport?

https://order-order.com/2019/11/27/plymouth-labour-officer-boasts-breaking-law/

Community organizers for Jezza

IanB2 said:

Marcus01 said:

Brief update from an ultra marginal con lib dem seat in London where I have been canvassing and leafleting. The liberal democrats are paying to have their leaflets delivered and selecting voters by demographic rather than from canvassing. Given the profile of the seat I think it's interesting that there are not more people here on the ground helping with the campaign and I'm left wondering where they all are? it could be that they are completely confident of victory? What is particularly interesting is the lack of orange diamonds compared to previous elections we think they are down by about 40% on this stage of the last election. As always reading too much into canvas returns it's a fatal mistake 4 supporters but our vote does seem to be very firm and we have picked up some labour voters who said will switch to ensure Corbyn gets ousted "just this once, mind"

As your twelfth post on PB that is pretty pitiful. If you are going to peddle such stuff here you might at least make more of an effort with your spelling and grammar.

Oh dear, don't like the message shoot the messenger,says it all..

B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

Philip_Thompson said:

Artist said:

Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

How do you find individual seats?
I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.

Slightly manual, but if you work out, for example, that S44 is the town postcode for Bolsover, and then start typing, the postcode autofills.

Fine for half a dozen or so seats you are interested in, but no good whatsoever for flitting around 650 seats.

wooliedyed said:

Ave_it said:

Should LAB be disqualified in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport?

https://order-order.com/2019/11/27/plymouth-labour-officer-boasts-breaking-law/

Community organizers for Jezza

Vote early, vote often....it would be funny if we didn't have people openly talking about voting in person and via postal vote as a student, polling cards sent out to 16/17 year olds and now this.

And of course, if Jezza wins, it is votes for everybody with zero checks.

Pro_Rata said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Artist said:

Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP

West Bromwich East- Tories 3% ahead
Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
Stoke on Trent Central- Tories 2% ahead
Redcar- Labour 4% ahead
Cheltenham- Lib Dems 2% ahead

How do you find individual seats?
I tried but could only see the tactical voting site and that only worked via postcode and not seat name.

Slightly manual, but if you work out, for example, that S44 is the town postcode for Bolsover, and then start typing, the postcode autofills.

Fine for half a dozen or so seats you are interested in, but no good whatsoever for flitting around 650 seats.

Also writing in the seat name with dashes between words; for example:
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/st-albans/

Fysics_Teacher said:

Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...

You may have ticked a box to subscribe to the thread. I did that once by accident and got a hundred emails within an hour. You need to unsubscribe to the thread [or wait for a new thread but that could be a thousand emails later].

Philip_Thompson said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Comments from here are now being sent to me as emails. I’m not sure that I want that...

You may have ticked a box to subscribe to the thread. I did that once by accident and got a hundred emails within an hour. You need to unsubscribe to the thread [or wait for a new thread but that could be a thousand emails later].

Thanks!

rcs1000 said:

B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.

Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.

Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.

Oooh, Tory Gain of Sheffield Hallam when LDs have assumed its in the bag would be hilarious.

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1199701057515016193

Not clear if Boris Johnson has agreed to interview Andrew Neil.

Seems to be some disquiet over postal votes in Plymouth Devonport.

MRP has Labour holding both Leeds North West and Cambridge

Philip_Thompson said:

Andrew said:

So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.

Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.

A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.

Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.

We agree on something!

You're absolutely right. The largest and most expensive poll in history was also the most inaccurate!

2.4 million Readers' Digest respondents produced the infamous poll predicting that Landon would beat Roosevelt 57% to 43%. In fact, Roosevelt beat Landon 62% to 38%!

The far smaller Gallup poll was way more accurate.

The heart of the problem was selection bias and nonresponse bias.

I have a BIG concern that pollsters are still failing to connect with mobile phone users (who uses a landline anymore except old people?) and young people.

https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html

Casino_Royale said:

Think so.
Also worth bearing in mind that whilst MRP is good it’s not exactly John Curtice’s exit poll so, as I think Pulpstar said, it’ll be more interesting to see where the votes are gathering and where they are not.

Thanks. Yes, NOTHING beats the great Curtice exit poll. I'm guessing YouGov are doing 3 of these. Tonight, next Wed, then eve of poll on the 11th.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Artist said:

Tested a few interesting constituencies on the BestofBritain MRP
[snip]
Coventry South- Labour 11% ahead
Redcar- Labour 4% ahead

Labour 2.1 Coventry South, 1.2 Redcar.

Redcar Tory bets were good ones then.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

B4B MRP shows St Ives as an easy Conservative hold.

St Alban's as a very narrow LD gain.

Richmond Park is an easy LD gain.

Sheffield Hallam looks like an incredibly close three way marginal.

Oooh, Tory Gain of Sheffield Hallam when LDs have assumed its in the bag would be hilarious.

Just had our first leaflet of the campaign here in Maidenhead from the LDs which quotes the Best for Britain MRP (LDs a mere 17% behind).

It must be very out of date now though as it still includes the Brexit party who aren't standing here! I suspect the Yougov MRP will show Theresa home and hosed (she is still very popular locally and I would expect her to win by around 15k with the LDs moving back up to second)

rcs1000 said:

These MRP numbers are appalling for the LibDems - they could end up losing a third of their seats net, even while they increase their total vote share

PC hold Ceredgion easily on these numbers

FrancisUrquhart said:

Still no sign off a let up in the Lib Dem Propaganda arriving at Chez Urquhart!!!

Have you had one of those fake newspaper leaflets>?

LDs hold Edinburgh West in tight the way battle

squareroot2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Still no sign off a let up in the Lib Dem Propaganda arriving at Chez Urquhart!!!

Have you had one of those fake newspaper leaflets>?

I have had the full works. So many it is difficult to remember all of them.

LDs gain Cheadle by a smidgen

Philip_Thompson said:

Andrew said:

So this and the Datapraxis MRPs are based on YouGov data …… and then we get the YouGov MRP itself.

Be interesting to see differences. DP had 48 majority, but seemingly based on a far longer timescale of polls - lot more data so potentially more accurate, but _much_ more complicated to model.

A lot more data does not mean potentially more accurate.

Less data that is better sampled is superior to more data that is incorrectly sampled.

Yeah, 270,000 responses that went into DataPraxis would be the equivalent of over 5 weeks of YouGov MRP data as they do 7000ish a day for their model.

How were things 5 weeks ago?

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Looks to be like a very shaky Tory majority based on very marginal seats that could really go either way. Tactical voting is needed here and for undecideds to back Labour in most cases

Well as most elections are won and lost in the marginals isn't this nearly always the case? I mean that's why they are marginals.

LDs hold Carshalton by the slimmest of margins

I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

JohnLilburne said:

Stark_Dawning said:

glw said:

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1199639844097531904?s=20

Hilarious . No more evidence needed that the DT is just Bozos daily fan magazine . The DT has leaked loads of government documents and now is playing the martyr.

It's a bit different when it is the would-be PM not a journalist doing the leaking.

Er, what about Churchill using all those leaks from the civil service and military during the 1930s?

OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE isn't actually that sensitive. It's only one level above OFFICIAL the lowest level of classification. It can be sent by Royal Mail but not unsecured email. It is just stuff they'd rather that someone without a business need didn't see.

A bit like US "Top Secret", where millions of people can access it.

El_Capitano said:

Best for Britain MRP results are at https://gallery.mailchimp.com/a706d4e03dc82629db3f7acf9/files/ae6c2fb1-48aa-4c6f-8a3d-b5f8fd958956/Best_for_Britain_Recommendation_Seats.pdf .

If the SNP get within 1 point of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West I will purchase and eat a hat.

Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?

AlastairMeeks said:

I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

And it isn't as if we have long to wait for the big boys to release their MRP model.

RobD said:

wooliedyed said:

Sunderland central a dead heat with 13% bxp to squeeze. Tasty

That would be a fun way to start the night

I've been touting it as outer edge of expectations for 2 months!

Philip_Thompson said:

I've not received a single election leaflet yet.

I can forward you some of mine if you like....

rcs1000 said:

Mysticrose said:

Can anyone tell me where they are getting this MRP data?

B4B

Means nothing to me. Can you post a link?

Flint is toast on those figures then. Gosh.

Wow, am I reading this right? The Lib Dems overturn a Tory majority of 22,384 and 64% of the vote to seize Windsor from third place?

Libdems capture Wimbledon

Alistair said:

Yeah, 270,000 responses that went into DataPraxis would be the equivalent of over 5 weeks of YouGov MRP data as they do 7000ish a day for their model.

The 270k was pretty much my point - ie that it suggests they might not just be using recent data, but from previous elections.

The temporal component is something traditional MRP models haven't been good at handling, but if it can done properly there's plenty potential extra information there. Possibly more elections will be needed, YouGov only have data on the last four.

GIN1138 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

Think this is just the warm up for tonight's main event with the true YouGov/MRP poll.

Everyone else is getting their cheap knock-offs out early I see.

Stark_Dawning said:

And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?

Isn't that like the third safest Tory seat in the realm?

AlastairMeeks said:

I can't say this particular MRP model looks all that compelling to me, given the individual results it is spewing out.

Which ones struck you as particularly unconvincing?

148grss said:

Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?

If there was any chance of her losing, John Nicolson wouldn’t have scuttled off to Perth.

All I was saying is that Rabbi Mirvis is a friend and supporter of Boris Johnson so therefore not a neutral observer. The choice of date for the release of his comments just before the launch of Labour's race and faith manifesto made them less powerful because it was such a deliberate act.

I hope that Rabbi Mirvis and Corbyn now meet to discuss all the issues in a productive manner.

Stark_Dawning said:

And the Lib Dems oust Theresa in Maidenhead?

Err no, on the model she gets 55% of the total vote.

Which bookies will not suspend their election markets in the face of the YouGov MRP?