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Byronic said:

Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today

At the time I thought it was a pretty shrewd decision.

The die-hard remainers were so noisy that it seemed there would be millions of extra votes in the revoke offer to pile on top of the 'never Corbyn'.

contrarian said:

humbugger said:

It's about time someone held Corbyn to account on WASPI and found out the detail of the proposal. Andrew Neil would be a good person to do so, like tonight.

Someone like......er.....the effing tories?

Trouble for them is the more they talk about it, the more people are going to realise "oh, I can get £30k if I tick this box?"

wooliedyed said:

The blues have an opening to attack labour on trust/corruption. Shadow home and foreign secretaries to trouser a waspi bung and tax increases set for earners just above the level of MPs. Enriching themselves. Powerful attack line.

It needs to happen. Boris needs to name all the beneficiaries in public and demand that they declare whether they will turn down this bung

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anti-extremist group @MainstreamUk issue a report with forward from former Labour MP @LouiseEllman naming 10 standing Labour candidates who have breached IHRA antisemitism definitions, full report here
https://t.co/4DuN4DeIv2 https://t.co/BNOGnZJFwu

I bet Andrew will have a copy

NorthCadboll said:

Alistair said:

NorthCadboll said:

Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.

Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?

Information from a couple of well placed Liberal sources I am pally with. Also confirms what my SCon contacts are telling me. Jamie himself told me a fortnight ago he is very worried about the SNP retaking the seat.

Interesting. I really had this down as a very safe hold.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

Not too bad.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

And hot off the presses, the updated tracker -- https://imgur.com/oUjR66V

Brom said:

Byronic said:

Barnesian said:

My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31.
Bath
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
Kingston and Surbiton
Leeds North West
Lewes
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Oxford West and Abingdon
Richmond Park
Sheffield, Hallam
Southport
St Albans
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Twickenham
Wells
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Winchester

If you were asked for a list of the 25 nicest places to live in England, it wouldn’t look very different to that

Would remove:

Cheadle
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Southport
Sutton & Cheam
Wells
Westmoreland
Winchester

Would add:

Cities of London
South Cambridgeshire

There’s a chance of a few left field ones like Kensington and Finchley. Possibly some surprise Home Counties seat. By definition national models can’t really predict surprises - like when the LibDems went from 20% to 45% and won Redcar in 2010. Maybe the YouGov model might give us some more prospects?

I too would be doubtful about Southport. I also wonder about Bermondsey. Eastbourne, Wells, Sutton and Winchester look good to me.

Mr. Byronic, whilst I agree the yellows should be doing a lot better, and that revoke is a crackers policy, politics is too turbulent to say they won't have another great opportunity.

They do seem to have failed to capitalise on this one. But there's still a little time to go.

wooliedyed said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

First poll fully after wasps and Tory manifesto

Do we have cross tabs by age?

Byronic said:

From the FT piece on the Libs (£)

“The mood in the Lib Dem camp is one of “concern, close to despair”, according to one senior party figure, and is in contrast to the bullish mood of the summer when the Lib Dems were confidently predicting they would win between 60 to 80 seats in the 650-strong Westminster parliament.“

You can get 8/1 on Luciana Berger for next leader #justsaying

SunnyJim said:

Byronic said:

Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today

At the time I thought it was a pretty shrewd decision.

The die-hard remainers were so noisy that it seemed there would be millions of extra votes in the revoke offer to pile on top of the 'never Corbyn'.

You seem to assume that as you call us die hard Remainers are one homogeneous group . Yes we’re angry and yes I detest Brexit but I said at the time the revoke policy wouldn’t work because I think what started with a referendum can only be changed with another referendum . And because I felt like that I expected many more Remainers would feel the same .

The Lib Dems are the strongest Remain party and never needed to go to revoke , it was self indulgent and they got swayed by the Euro elections .

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

*and exhale*

Byronic said:

SunnyJim said:

Byronic said:

Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today

At the time I thought it was a pretty shrewd decision.

The die-hard remainers were so noisy that it seemed there would be millions of extra votes in the revoke offer to pile on top of the 'never Corbyn'.

I said it was nuts at the time. Politically, electorally and morally stupid.

And yet you support Brexit, the most politically stupid thing this country has ever done, with the possible exception of offering a guarantee to the territorial integrity of Belgium. You justify said position on the grounds of a very marginal victory in a highly dubious referendum in 2016. Well done genius.

timmo said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

timmo said:

On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up.
What may happen?

A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.

And they print a lot of their own. Paper and ink are relatively inexpensive.

It's the number of bits that are coming with the post that make this not stand up

Except that there is the local campaign and the national campaign. I expect you are getting loads of messages about Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats generally. There do not count for local campaigning limits.

The Conservatives used to be very good at doing this - in fact I looked on them as the experts in the field - but the Lib Dems are learning fast. This is probably being helped by the fact that the Tories have lost so many of their previous funders in the business community, who have now put their cash behind the Lib Dems campaign. So the Lib Dems are fighting it out on nearly equal terms, and they have a much better ground game.

On top of this, of course, the Conservatives are hopelessly over-stretched, struggling to both win seats and defend seats all over the place.

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

timmo said:

On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up.
What may happen?

A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.

And they print a lot of their own. Paper and ink are relatively inexpensive.

Paper is inexpensive - ink not so cheap. All parties do a lot in-house. It just shows how ludicrous the expenses laws have become. The rot set in with local government when the limit was doubled and suddenly you could bombard your electors with 3 or 4 leaflets. That then meant that if you wanted to win you had to bombard your electors with 5 or 6 leaflets.

Very busy at the moment, but just popping in to say best of luck to Aaron in Newcastle!

Byronic said:

Cyclefree said:

Byronic said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

Look at the Libs again. Down 3. Beyond MOE

Is it possible they could actually LOSE seats?

Almost certainly because some of their current MPs are people who have defected, no?

Sorry, I was unclear. I mean: could the LDs suffer a net LOSS of seats?

Its possible. Unlikely but possible.

The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.

Lib Dems are lost between the cacophony of getting Brexit done and rounding up Jews.

Byronic said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Byronic said:

Cyclefree said:

Byronic said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

Look at the Libs again. Down 3. Beyond MOE

Is it possible they could actually LOSE seats?

Almost certainly because some of their current MPs are people who have defected, no?

Sorry, I was unclear. I mean: could the LDs suffer a net LOSS of seats?

Its possible. Unlikely but possible.

If they go much lower than 13% it will be certain

Do you mean relative to the 21 or 12?

At 13% I think its likely to be between the two figures. To go below the 12 they'd need to go into single digits surely.

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

Not too bad.

Cue Labour supporters now shitting the bed.

Yougov was 5% lead at roughly this point in 2017.

Brom said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

Not too bad.

Cue Labour supporters now shitting the bed.

Yougov was 5% lead at roughly this point in 2017.

I forget if these numbers feed into the MRP, or they use a different set.

wooliedyed said:

spudgfsh said:

I seriously believe that Margaret Beckett believes that she's in trouble in Derby South. Given her majority she shouldn't be but she was canvassing in my area today. That's the first time since I've lived in the area (18 years).

I keep seeing facebook ads from TBP and Tory so maybe there's something in it.

She's currently 1/10 to win but you can get 5/1 on the Tories.

I'd consider it if TBP weren't standing in the seat though

Never been Tory but very marginal in 83 and 87........

At the last boundary changes inner city derby areas which are much more labour were added to the seat (hence why derby north is now the marginal). That is what is confusing me about it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

No....Labour are through the 30% barrier now, with more Lib Dem vote to squeeze.

Mr. Nabavi, they'd find it easier if May hadn't thrown away the economic high ground and Boris Johnson weren't a fool who happily splurges away billions chasing headlines.

Of course, even the incumbent's propensity to spend too much pales into utter insignificance compared to the lunacy of Corbyn's far left madness.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can anyone remind me. Did the first MRP poll on 2017 show a Hung Parliament?

Yes, the headlines from 2017 were posted earlier today.

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.

How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?

I meant they should have already hammered home the message, so that when the Waspi bung appeared it would have been universally met with the derision it deserves, without the Tories needing to do much more.

Andrew said:

https://twitter.com/MoraleCurry/status/1199377842162802688

#plotsthatdontgotozero

Alistair said:

RobD said:

And hot off the presses, the updated tracker -- https://imgur.com/oUjR66V

Hmmm, the red line is... Surging?

Tories look like they have definitely hit that 42% ceiling. I don't see any reason why Labour will go backwards from here on in. All the antisemitism stuff is priced in, and Tories / Lib Dems are having a crap campaign.

Squeaky bum time.

Byronic said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Byronic said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Byronic said:

Cyclefree said:

Byronic said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

Look at the Libs again. Down 3. Beyond MOE

Is it possible they could actually LOSE seats?

Almost certainly because some of their current MPs are people who have defected, no?

Sorry, I was unclear. I mean: could the LDs suffer a net LOSS of seats?

Its possible. Unlikely but possible.

If they go much lower than 13% it will be certain

Do you mean relative to the 21 or 12?

At 13% I think its likely to be between the two figures. To go below the 12 they'd need to go into single digits surely.

Yes I mean the 21. The 12 are presumably cemented into place.

What a fuck up. Surely Swinson would go if she suffers a net loss. I would feel sorry for her, she’s not that bad and she’s a doughty defender of the union.

A doughty defender of the union who has an electoral pact with the Welsh nationalists.

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can anyone remind me. Did the first MRP poll on 2017 show a Hung Parliament?

Yes, the headlines from 2017 were posted earlier today.

Was that not the first published version? I believe the first record of it had a 9 point Tory lead but this may only have been published after the election. With 3 weeks to go MRP did show a hung parliament though suggesting there was not much change after this point in the election.

Looking at the numbers for each of the parties' polling, it looks to me as though the Tories have squeezed as much of the vote as they are going to get, so the 40-43% is their ceiling. It strikes me that Labour have more left to squeeze from the undecideds and from the LDs.

So a final vote count of 40-43% vs 33-39% (yes, I think there is much more uncertainty in the Labour vote), seems reasonable.

That gives a huge array of potential outcomes in the seat count.

Byronic said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.

And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".

And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.

Pretty hard to criticise Boris Johnson on trust or come across as a serious alternative when you are using phrases like Prime Minister Jo Swinson.

The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.

Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today

It was but hindsight is a wonderful thing and, at the time, I thought they might hover up most of the 20% of the electorate that was up for Revoke off the back of it.

Turns out people don’t necessarily agree (literally) with the petitions that they sign and, even if they do, they are sometimes shocked when political parties do too.

TimT said:

Looking at the numbers for each of the parties' polling, it looks to me as though the Tories have squeezed as much of the vote as they are going to get, so the 40-43% is their ceiling. It strikes me that Labour have more left to squeeze from the undecideds and from the LDs.

So a final vote count of 40-43% vs 33-39% (yes, I think there is much more uncertainty in the Labour vote), seems reasonable.

That gives a huge array of potential outcomes in the seat count.

Which - if this turns out to be the final result - would mean that Boris would have got no more than Mrs May. Oh the irony!!

Brom said:

Byronic said:

Barnesian said:

My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31.
Bath
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
Kingston and Surbiton
Leeds North West
Lewes
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Oxford West and Abingdon
Richmond Park
Sheffield, Hallam
Southport
St Albans
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Twickenham
Wells
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Winchester

If you were asked for a list of the 25 nicest places to live in England, it wouldn’t look very different to that

Would remove:

Cheadle
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Southport
Sutton & Cheam
Wells
Westmoreland
Winchester

Would add:

Cities of London
South Cambridgeshire

I’m not sure Winchester will go LD.

There’s a big very rural and Tory hinterland and not much left-wing vote left for LDs to squeeze, so they’d require significant Tory>LD switching to take it.

I’m not sure why that would happen this year when it didn’t in GE2017, particularly given Swinson’s current numbers.

SunnyJim said:

Byronic said:

Yes, that’s the worry. It’s now clear who you have to vote for, to stop Brexit. And it’s Jeremy bloody Corbyn.

There must be lots of anguished Remainers out there, staring at Corbyn’s economic policies and wondering if the risk is worth it.

How deranged would you need to be to ever consider the EU to be worth what Labour will do to the country.

It is utterly barmy.

Isn;t that exactly what Dominic Grieve thought?

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.

And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".

And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.

Pretty hard to criticise Boris Johnson on trust or come across as a serious alternative when you are using phrases like Prime Minister Jo Swinson.

The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.

Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today

It was but hindsight is a wonderful thing and, at the time, I thought they might hover up most of the 20% of the electorate that was up for Revoke off the back of it.

Turns out people don’t necessarily agree (literally) with the petitions that they sign and, even if they do, they are sometimes shocked when political parties do too.

They should have strongly argued for a second referendum rather than revoke. It was the revoke without going back to the people which has been the strategic mistake.

They assumed that those who voted revoke literally meant that as opposed to, say, taking a pause and looking at the issue again in light of what we know now.

FrancisUrquhart said:

So if its a hung parliament, where do we go from here?

Cancel Brexit and never speak of the last 3 and a half years ever again, the next morning we wake up to David Cameron stepping out of the shower and still being Prime Minister.

Not for the first time in its history, the fate of the Tory Party lies with the LibDems....

I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.

Byronic said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates

No....Labour are through the 30% barrier now, with more Lib Dem vote to squeeze.

Yes, that’s the worry. It’s now clear who you have to vote for, to stop Brexit. And it’s Jeremy bloody Corbyn.

There must be lots of anguished Remainers out there, staring at Corbyn’s economic policies and wondering if the risk is worth it.

It really depends how much of a red line it is .

I view it as 5 years of Corbyn or out of the EU with little chance of rejoining for many years if ever . Both sides have their Remain or Leave at all costs voters .

But that’s not enough to win an election . The fact Johnson has a deal which means at least an orderly exit with a year transition has allowed some Tory Remainers to feel more comfortable and has hurt the Lib Dems .

The only way their revoke policy had a hope was up against a no deal exit.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1199381314639675398
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1199381323565162499

Brom said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

Not too bad.

Cue Labour supporters now shitting the bed.

Yougov was 5% lead at roughly this point in 2017.

Yes Tories still the same as 2017 but LDs still polling higher at Labour's expense even with this week's squeeze of LD votes by Labour

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.

How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?

I meant they should have already hammered home the message, so that when the Waspi bung appeared it would have been universally met with the derision it deserves, without the Tories needing to do much more.

The Tory campaign has been lazy. They've forgotten how to argue, how to make a case, how to demolish an opponent's case.

How do you argue when the arguments that should be overwhelming such as the Opposition being patently unfit for office count for nothing? If Corbyn being an anti-semite marxist who will bankrupt us all is not enough then what would you suggest is?

Those are assertions rather than arguments. Patiently demolishing each of the manifesto promises, showing their absurdities, the unintended and harmful consequences, asking the questions to which your opponents have no answer, showing the contradictions between what Labour are saying and what Labour are promising are what's needed.
Clearly lots of people don't think Labour is unfit for office. So merely saying it achieves nothing. Saying why in terms that make sense to people is what's needed. Shouting "Marxist" does not help. Stating that a tax policy will take away this much money from people on this low income e.g. the marriage tax allowance or that this promise cannot be paid without taxing you etc are what's needed.

Brom said:

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1199372244713005056

Not too bad.

Cue Labour supporters now shitting the bed.

Yougov was 5% lead at roughly this point in 2017.

Or a 9pt YouGov lead depending on which way you look