Yes, that’s the worry. It’s now clear who you have to vote for, to stop Brexit. And it’s Jeremy bloody Corbyn.
There must be lots of anguished Remainers out there, staring at Corbyn’s economic policies and wondering if the risk is worth it.
How deranged would you need to be to ever consider the EU to be worth what Labour will do to the country.
It is utterly barmy.
Brexit is just as barmy, just as potentially damaging; possibly more so long term, and I say that as an ex Conservative party member and activist . If Corbyn stands any chance of getting near power it is the idiot Brexiteers who have given him that chance. Well done idiots, you have reduced the Conservative Party to being the party of the economically illiterate and only slightly less stupid than Corbyn's Labour Party.
How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?
My mother is a waspi but also a frothing Brexiteer who went to a Farage Brexit rally.
It has all suddenly gone quiet on getting Brexit done and we haven't had a recent conversation about the election.
Her £30k will be roughly the same as my additional income tax bill over a 5 year parliament but by the time you factor in all the additional taxes plus the impact of the 10% worker share scheme I could see the true cost nudging six figures for me.
It is democracy so you have to suck it up BUT if we escape a Corbyn government this time and there is no change in Labour direction before the next GE then it would be financial suicide to keep assets in the UK.
And if a no-mark like me is looking for the exit you can be sure that all the real money is either gone already or will be within hours of a Corbyn win.
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".
And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.
Pretty hard to criticise Boris Johnson on trust or come across as a serious alternative when you are using phrases like Prime Minister Jo Swinson.
The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.
Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today
It was but hindsight is a wonderful thing and, at the time, I thought they might hover up most of the 20% of the electorate that was up for Revoke off the back of it.
Turns out people don’t necessarily agree (literally) with the petitions that they sign and, even if they do, they are sometimes shocked when political parties do too.
Your partisan schadenfreude might turn out to be premature
Aaron must have had a very nasty shock when the resident in the picture at the top of this thread opened his front door to him ... at first glance he looks a dead ringer for Jeremy Corbyn!
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No, he's a dick, same way Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove get criticism.
People seem to hate Raab way more than they hate Gove or Mogg.
Equally to Mogg, but even more than Bozo, in my particular case. Bozo is a liar and a fraud, but one feels he might be fun to share a glass of something while listening to him tell funny stories about his favourite subject, himself.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Information from a couple of well placed Liberal sources I am pally with. Also confirms what my SCon contacts are telling me. Jamie himself told me a fortnight ago he is very worried about the SNP retaking the seat.
Interesting. I really had this down as a very safe hold.
I had an ickle dribble on the Tories in Edinburgh SW. Have I wasted my pound?
Brexit is just as barmy, just as potentially damaging; possibly more so long term, and I say that as an ex Conservative party member and activist . If Corbyn stands any chance of getting near power it is the idiot Brexiteers who have given him that chance. Well done idiots, you have reduced the Conservative Party to being the party of the economically illiterate and only slightly less stupid than Corbyn's Labour Party.
Brexit (even at its worst) would be no way near as damaging as Corbyn and i'm sure you know that.
And besides there is a democratic mechanism to rejoin the EU.
There is no turning back once the hundreds of billions have been spent...and we all know that as the election after this one approached there would be hundreds more spent bribing the electorate.
Your grand-kids and their kids are going to be the ones paying for it Nigel; you're loading up THEIR credit card with YOUR debt.
Yes, that’s the worry. It’s now clear who you have to vote for, to stop Brexit. And it’s Jeremy bloody Corbyn.
There must be lots of anguished Remainers out there, staring at Corbyn’s economic policies and wondering if the risk is worth it.
How deranged would you need to be to ever consider the EU to be worth what Labour will do to the country.
It is utterly barmy.
Brexit is just as barmy, just as potentially damaging; possibly more so long term, and I say that as an ex Conservative party member and activist . If Corbyn stands any chance of getting near power it is the idiot Brexiteers who have given him that chance. Well done idiots, you have reduced the Conservative Party to being the party of the economically illiterate and only slightly less stupid than Corbyn's Labour Party.
Corbyn was elected leader before Brexit. And he’s just a radical symptom of a world wide phenomenon: left and right populism surging in the face of globalisation. Trump, Brexit, Le Pen, Corbyn, Salvini, Orban, the SNP, Sanders, Catalan nationalism etc etc etc, are all fruit hanging from the same tree, which has its roots in social immobility, stagnant working class wages, the rise of China, identity politics, mass migration...
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No he’s despised because he’s a vile odious slimebag. And he wants capitalism on steroids .
I could care less about his heritage . The fact hes also willing to sue the Dunn family for legal costs shows what a lowlife he is .
He has no empathy, is a liar and arrogant. Reasons enough to dislike him.
I completely understand why people dislike him. I criticised his actions on the Dunn case myself. But there is a particularly visceral dislike among some on PB and Twitter.
The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.
How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?
I meant they should have already hammered home the message, so that when the Waspi bung appeared it would have been universally met with the derision it deserves, without the Tories needing to do much more.
The Tory campaign has been lazy. They've forgotten how to argue, how to make a case, how to demolish an opponent's case.
How do you argue when the arguments that should be overwhelming such as the Opposition being patently unfit for office count for nothing? If Corbyn being an anti-semite marxist who will bankrupt us all is not enough then what would you suggest is?
Those are assertions rather than arguments. Patiently demolishing each of the manifesto promises, showing their absurdities, the unintended and harmful consequences, asking the questions to which your opponents have no answer, showing the contradictions between what Labour are saying and what Labour are promising are what's needed. Clearly lots of people don't think Labour is unfit for office. So merely saying it achieves nothing. Saying why in terms that make sense to people is what's needed. Shouting "Marxist" does not help. Stating that a tax policy will take away this much money from people on this low income e.g. the marriage tax allowance or that this promise cannot be paid without taxing you etc are what's needed.
Yes, the Tories should go hard on the economy and spend the last two weeks ripping apart Labour’s economic and fiscal case.
Show the bungs to be a complete chimera that we’ll all end up paying for but, stick with them, and real sustainable rewards will come.
That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates
Look at the Libs again. Down 3. Beyond MOE
Is it possible they could actually LOSE seats?
It would be the ultimate proof of the politically over engaged thinking they represented mainstream public opinion. Change UK/TIG made the same mistake.
OGH seems to have backed the Lib Dems in every way possible. Didn't he say he made them EVS to take John Redwoods seat?
May I nominate Adam Price of Plaid Cymru for the Manspreader of the Year Award? His intervew with Jo Coburn of the BBC shouldn't be missed. He sat with his feet a yard apart, toes pointed in opposite directions, and kept bouncing on his seat aiming his crotch in Jo's direction. Top work!
There's an award for this? Who knew? Don't tell Boris for goodness sake.
How deranged would you need to be to ever consider the EU to be worth what Labour will do to the country. It is utterly barmy.
Far from it. A rational Remainer - and let's face it most of them are - will know that the best that Labour can possibly do at this GE is minority government in a hung parliament. Such an administration, Corbyn or no Corbyn, will in practice be able to implement just one of their flagship radical policies - a second EU referendum. This policy is known in common parlance as "A great opportunity to stop Brexit. Indeed the only opportunity we will ever have to do so."
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No, he's a dick, same way Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove get criticism.
People seem to hate Raab way more than they hate Gove or Mogg.
I hate Mogg way more. Probably hate Raab the least out of those three actually. He's too dull to really loathe. Gove is a Scottish Tory and therefore an abomination against nature. Mogg is a useful reminder not to send your kids to private school. Raab is just a boring suburban Thatcherite straight out of central casting. All the likeable Tories seem to have left the party TBH. Javid seems all right, if even more boring than Raab, but I'd still never vote for him, obvs.
Nearly evening all I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave. The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative. That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month. For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
Interesting table in that about what voters biggest fear is about each party, split by previous voting groups. All but one of the groups (Lab 2017 voters, who voted Remain) say Corbyn as PM is their biggest fear. No groups say Johnson as PM is their biggest fear. Kinnock 1992 effect in play?
Still a way behind, but explains some of the Labour rise:
"Overall, 2017 Conservatives put their likelihood of staying with the party up a point at 77, with 2017 Labour voters’ chance of voting the same way again up from 55 to 60."
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No, he's a dick, same way Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove get criticism.
People seem to hate Raab way more than they hate Gove or Mogg.
I hate Mogg way more. Probably hate Raab the least out of those three actually. He's too dull to really loathe. Gove is a Scottish Tory and therefore an abomination against nature. Mogg is a useful reminder not to send your kids to private school. Raab is just a boring suburban Thatcherite straight out of central casting. All the likeable Tories seem to have left the party TBH. Javid seems all right, if even more boring than Raab, but I'd still never vote for him, obvs.
loathe is a batter word than hate. I don't think you actually hate him anyway, if you do I feel very sorry for you./
Yes, that’s the worry. It’s now clear who you have to vote for, to stop Brexit. And it’s Jeremy bloody Corbyn.
There must be lots of anguished Remainers out there, staring at Corbyn’s economic policies and wondering if the risk is worth it.
How deranged would you need to be to ever consider the EU to be worth what Labour will do to the country.
It is utterly barmy.
Brexit is just as barmy, just as potentially damaging; possibly more so long term, and I say that as an ex Conservative party member and activist . If Corbyn stands any chance of getting near power it is the idiot Brexiteers who have given him that chance. Well done idiots, you have reduced the Conservative Party to being the party of the economically illiterate and only slightly less stupid than Corbyn's Labour Party.
Corbyn was elected leader before Brexit. And he’s just a radical symptom of a world wide phenomenon: left and right populism surging in the face of globalisation. Trump, Brexit, Le Pen, Corbyn, Salvini, Orban, the SNP, Sanders, Catalan nationalism etc etc etc, are all fruit hanging from the same tree, which has its roots in social immobility, stagnant working class wages, the rise of China, identity politics, mass migration...
Your analysis is crass, asinine and dim.
Anyone calling someone's analysis crass and dim while still believing in Brexit is ironic in the extreme. I hope you get all you want from Father Christmas, or the tooth fairy, but try not to be too disappointed deary! Night night!
“The mood in the Lib Dem camp is one of “concern, close to despair”, according to one senior party figure, and is in contrast to the bullish mood of the summer when the Lib Dems were confidently predicting they would win between 60 to 80 seats in the 650-strong Westminster parliament.“
The election has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem’s advantage.
May I nominate Adam Price of Plaid Cymru for the Manspreader of the Year Award? His intervew with Jo Coburn of the BBC shouldn't be missed. He sat with his feet a yard apart, toes pointed in opposite directions, and kept bouncing on his seat aiming his crotch in Jo's direction. Top work!
There's an award for this? Who knew? Don't tell Boris for goodness sake.
Watch the interview. Price has set a very high bar. Boris couldn't perform at that level. Price practically...well...just watch it... Top stuff. If a bloke sat opposite me on the Tube started with body language like that, I'd be scared.
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
As you're posting it and are particularly concerned about anti-semitism, I assume he's of Jewish background, but I wouldn't have known or cared, and really doubt if many people of any persuasion would. Also, is he really particularly hated?
Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
As long as Corbyn and his fellow travellers are removed from the picture i'd be more than happy for a 97-00 Blair-type Labour government.
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No, he's a dick, same way Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove get criticism.
People seem to hate Raab way more than they hate Gove or Mogg.
Gove is a Scottish Tory and therefore an abomination against nature.
Ahem. I think you will find you are more than a bit out of date with that. This will be yet another election where the Tories in Scotland will get more votes than Labour.
Yes, that’s the worry. It’s now clear who you have to vote for, to stop Brexit. And it’s Jeremy bloody Corbyn.
There must be lots of anguished Remainers out there, staring at Corbyn’s economic policies and wondering if the risk is worth it.
How deranged would you need to be to ever consider the EU to be worth what Labour will do to the country.
It is utterly barmy.
Brexit is just as barmy, just as potentially damaging; possibly more so long term, and I say that as an ex Conservative party member and activist . If Corbyn stands any chance of getting near power it is the idiot Brexiteers who have given him that chance. Well done idiots, you have reduced the Conservative Party to being the party of the economically illiterate and only slightly less stupid than Corbyn's Labour Party.
You really win hearts and minds with your posting style.
This time in GE 2017 (D-16) Panelbase released a poll that showed: Con 48% / Lab 33% / UKIP 4% / LDs 7% Just saying
True, but the average lead was around 11% at this stage, and had been falling hard for a fair while beforehand. If it's going to do the same now, it's going to be much more sudden, compared to a fairly flat lead so far.
Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
As long as Corbyn and his fellow travellers are removed from the picture i'd be more than happy for a 97-00 Blair-type Labour government.
And i'm a Tory.
I'm exactly the same. But the only way we'll get one is a 1983-style wipeout of Labour, and unlike 1983, promising the earth now works on enough of the electorate to prevent a Labour wipeout...
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".
And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.
Pretty hard to criticise Boris Johnson on trust or come across as a serious alternative when you are using phrases like Prime Minister Jo Swinson.
The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.
Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today
It was but hindsight is a wonderful thing and, at the time, I thought they might hover up most of the 20% of the electorate that was up for Revoke off the back of it.
Turns out people don’t necessarily agree (literally) with the petitions that they sign and, even if they do, they are sometimes shocked when political parties do too.
Your partisan schadenfreude might turn out to be premature
This must be one of those irregular verbs:
I’m a partisan poster You’re an objective commentator He’s a subjective fool prone to confirmation bias
Nearly evening all I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave. The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative. That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month. For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
As you're posting it and are particularly concerned about anti-semitism, I assume he's of Jewish background, but I wouldn't have known or cared, and really doubt if many people of any persuasion would. Also, is he really particularly hated?
There are a lot of Labour supporters who are very anti-Semitic. The Tories have their own problem with Islamophobia but Labour are doing nothing about anti Semitism apart from a "Shami" enquiry that "cleared" the Labour Party. If the leader of the Jews is as outspoken as he has been , you cannot attempt to sweep it under the carpet. (well you can but it will not wash.)
You are just trying to take the heat off Labour with a comment like that.
Tories look like they have definitely hit that 42% ceiling. I don't see any reason why Labour will go backwards from here on in. All the antisemitism stuff is priced in, and Tories / Lib Dems are having a crap campaign.
Any indications on how the Labour leadership is going to respond to the SWR train strike next week? Very difficult to believe such a prolonged action won’t have some effect in the affected areas?
The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.
How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?
I meant they should have already hammered home the message, so that when the Waspi bung appeared it would have been universally met with the derision it deserves, without the Tories needing to do much more.
The Tory campaign has been lazy. They've forgotten how to argue, how to make a case, how to demolish an opponent's case.
They've exhausted themselves with the years of squabbling amongst themselves. I'm mostly hiding behind the sofa.
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
As you're posting it and are particularly concerned about anti-semitism, I assume he's of Jewish background, but I wouldn't have known or cared, and really doubt if many people of any persuasion would. Also, is he really particularly hated?
There are a lopt of Labour supporters who are very anti-Semitic. The Tories have their own problem with islamophobia but Labour are doing nothing about anti Semitism apart from a "Shami" enquiry that "cleared" the Labour Party. If the leader of the Jews is as outspoken as he has been , you cannot attempt to sweep it under the carpet
You are just trying to take the heat off Labour with a comment like that.
I’m very anti the Israeli government and especially Netenyahu who is destroying any chance of a two state solution . I have nothing against Jewish people . I think that’s where the vast majority of the Labour Party is .
I think it's reasonable to look ahead beyond 12/12. I suspect it won't be long before the Conservatives hit their mid-term trough but so much will depend on how Labour react to defeat.
Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
As long as Corbyn and his fellow travellers are removed from the picture i'd be more than happy for a 97-00 Blair-type Labour government.
And i'm a Tory.
So was Tony, ask anyone still in the Labour party.
Any indications on how the Labour leadership is going to respond to the SWR train strike next week? Very difficult to believe such a prolonged action won’t have some effect in the affected areas?
Nationalised rail will see no strikes because the government will treat the workers brilliantly unlike those vile capitalists.
That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates
This time in GE 2017 (D-16) Panelbase released a poll that showed: Con 48% / Lab 33% / UKIP 4% / LDs 7% Just saying
It says nothing. A couple of days ago there was a poll with a 19 point Tory lead. Equally useless since it was from another company when comparing with a YouGov poll. The Yougov polls at the same point in 2017 showed between 9% and 5% lead.
This in particular is symptomatic of the near complete failure of the Conservatives, so far, to lay a glove on Labour on tax and the economy:
“The chances of “higher taxes for people like me” were thought to be only slightly higher under Labour (58/100) than under another Conservative government (51/100).”
May I nominate Adam Price of Plaid Cymru for the Manspreader of the Year Award? His intervew with Jo Coburn of the BBC shouldn't be missed. He sat with his feet a yard apart, toes pointed in opposite directions, and kept bouncing on his seat aiming his crotch in Jo's direction. Top work!
There's an award for this? Who knew? Don't tell Boris for goodness sake.
Watch the interview. Price has set a very high bar. Boris couldn't perform at that level. Price practically...well...just watch it... Top stuff. If a bloke sat opposite me on the Tube started with body language like that, I'd be scared.
Adam Price is gay.
I don't see why you would have much to be scared about if he sat opposite to you on the tube.
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
I doubt it. I am not of the left, and not many are in leafy Surrey where I live. But he is widely reviled, even by Conservatives who will cast a tribal vote for him, because of his revolting personality. Can you imagine many other MPs who would have their heavies physically prevent bereaved parents from attending a meeting and then harangue them on leaving?
Nearly evening all I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave. The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative. That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month. For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
Brexit might be "consigned to the footnote of history", or there might be an ongoing struggle to rejoin the EU. I'm sure Jo Swinson's LibDems would be right on that, although Lab and Con might be glad to see the back of the topic.
The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.
How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?
I meant they should have already hammered home the message, so that when the Waspi bung appeared it would have been universally met with the derision it deserves, without the Tories needing to do much more.
The Tory campaign has been lazy. They've forgotten how to argue, how to make a case, how to demolish an opponent's case.
How do you argue when the arguments that should be overwhelming such as the Opposition being patently unfit for office count for nothing? If Corbyn being an anti-semite marxist who will bankrupt us all is not enough then what would you suggest is?
Those are assertions rather than arguments. Patiently demolishing each of the manifesto promises, showing their absurdities, the unintended and harmful consequences, asking the questions to which your opponents have no answer, showing the contradictions between what Labour are saying and what Labour are promising are what's needed. Clearly lots of people don't think Labour is unfit for office. So merely saying it achieves nothing. Saying why in terms that make sense to people is what's needed. Shouting "Marxist" does not help. Stating that a tax policy will take away this much money from people on this low income e.g. the marriage tax allowance or that this promise cannot be paid without taxing you etc are what's needed.
It makes no difference. No one believes a word politicians say anymore. After all, if vast swathes of them can lie about carrying out Brexit at the last election why should anyone believe what they say this time around? Basically the failure to accept the public vote in 2016 has broken politics in this country completely. Which is why Corbyn can get away with saying anything he likes and no argument against him will work.
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
As you're posting it and are particularly concerned about anti-semitism, I assume he's of Jewish background, but I wouldn't have known or cared, and really doubt if many people of any persuasion would. Also, is he really particularly hated?
There are a lopt of Labour supporters who are very anti-Semitic. The Tories have their own problem with islamophobia but Labour are doing nothing about anti Semitism apart from a "Shami" enquiry that "cleared" the Labour Party. If the leader of the Jews is as outspoken as he has been , you cannot attempt to sweep it under the carpet
You are just trying to take the heat off Labour with a comment like that.
I’m very anti the Israeli government and especially Netenyahu who is destroying any chance of a two state solution . I have nothing against Jewish people . I think that’s where the vast majority of the Labour Party is .
I used to be skeptical of this idea: of rooted widespread anti-semitism in Labour. But now I believe it. There’s just too many examples, and some of it is quite outrageous
My theory is that Corbyn imported the worst of it, when he became leader with his £3 members. There is a far left faction which has normalized Jew-hatred over decades, conflating it with anti-Zionism. They are often allied with radical Islam, which is obviously problematic. This far left faction moved into Labour to elect Corbyn, and they brought their anti Semitic baggage with them.
Now they are there it will be very hard to root it out, and I see zero real effort to do so. Corbyn seems to prefer attacking the messenger. He doesn’t believe there is a problem and he wouldn’t really care if there was
Nearly evening all I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave. The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative. That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month. For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
Brexit might be "consigned to the footnote of history", or there might be an ongoing struggle to rejoin the EU. I'm sure Jo Swinson's LibDems would be right on that, although Lab and Con might be glad to see the back of the topic.
My view is we’ll move ever closer to the EU (from the outside) under future LD/Labour government’s without ever actually de jure re-joining it.
"Jeremy Corbyn has declined to apologise to the British Jewish community following criticism from the chief rabbi over how the party deals with anti-Semitism claims.
In an interview with the BBC's Andrew Neil, the Labour leader was asked four times whether he would like to apologise.
Mr Corbyn said he was "determined that our society is safe" for "all faiths" - but did not directly apologise."
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No he’s despised because he’s a vile odious slimebag. And he wants capitalism on steroids .
I could care less about his heritage . The fact hes also willing to sue the Dunn family for legal costs shows what a lowlife he is .
He has no empathy, is a liar and arrogant. Reasons enough to dislike him.
I completely understand why people dislike him. I criticised his actions on the Dunn case myself. But there is a particularly visceral dislike among some on PB and Twitter.
Like Dominic Raab, I'm half Jewish. Please, stop. This kind of absurd, hysterical wolf-crying is exactly the kind of thing that will make people take claims of antisemitism less seriously.
That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates
This time in GE 2017 (D-16) Panelbase released a poll that showed: Con 48% / Lab 33% / UKIP 4% / LDs 7% Just saying
It says nothing. A couple of days ago there was a poll with a 19 point Tory lead. Equally useless since it was from another company when comparing with a YouGov poll. The Yougov polls at the same point in 2017 showed between 9% and 5% lead.
What makes us think the poll profile rate of erosion must be equivalent to GE2017 as a rule of law? Ergo, because the “buffer” is higher at this stage of the game, the Tories will be ok?
It could be the same, or it could drop off more steeply, or bounce back, or just go nowhere.
LATEST: The Hindu Council has now written to the Chief Rabbi to express their support and to accuse the Labour Party of also becoming anti-Hindu. Major interventions in this election today from pretty much every major faith in Britain. Astonishing. https://t.co/J4fRtvIOLw
Quite - the real winning post for a practical majority is 320: 650 - Speaker - 3 deputies - 7 Sinn Fein = 639. 639/2 = 319.5.
But don't two of those deputies come from the overall Conservative column?
Hoyle is running as Speaker...no one is running as Deputy Speaker.
If so, I guess you need to win 322 seats on the night?
Good catch. Yes, 322 = majority of 1 in that case.
Having said that, I don't see why in our multi-party age we shouldn't break with convention to offer the SNP and LDs the privilege of holding Deputy Speakerships...
I get minicabs five or six days a week. Many but not all drivers are also working for Uber. If Uber does not get its licence back, I'd imagine the Uber drivers would revert to being straight minicab drivers. You won't see 45,000 added to the dole queue.
That should calm conservative nerves in view of the survey dates
This time in GE 2017 (D-16) Panelbase released a poll that showed: Con 48% / Lab 33% / UKIP 4% / LDs 7% Just saying
It says nothing. A couple of days ago there was a poll with a 19 point Tory lead. Equally useless since it was from another company when comparing with a YouGov poll. The Yougov polls at the same point in 2017 showed between 9% and 5% lead.
Fair enough but sticking to Panelbase: Panelbase GE17 Tory lead on D-16 = 15% Panelbase GE19 Tory lead on D-20* = 10% (*the latest GE19 Panelbase we have) Or with ICM: ICM GE17 Tory lead on D-18 = 14% ICM GE19 Tory lead on D-17 = 7% My point is not that the Tories are not doing better than GE17 (they are) but that it's not over yet.
LATEST: The Hindu Council has now written to the Chief Rabbi to express their support and to accuse the Labour Party of also becoming anti-Hindu. Major interventions in this election today from pretty much every major faith in Britain. Astonishing. https://t.co/J4fRtvIOLw
Inspiring to see a united front, just sad that it's necessary.
Nearly evening all I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave. The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative. That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month. For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
Brexit might be "consigned to the footnote of history", or there might be an ongoing struggle to rejoin the EU. I'm sure Jo Swinson's LibDems would be right on that, although Lab and Con might be glad to see the back of the topic.
My view is we’ll move ever closer to the EU (from the outside) under future LD/Labour government’s without ever actually de jure re-joining it.
The piece I'm currently writing for PB is
'If you want to ensure the UK's long term membership of the EU vote Conservative on December 12th'
Short version, we'll exit the EU with No Deal next December, sustained No Deal means us rejoining by 2030, once we're back in, we'll never leave, and we'll be fully integrated from the get go.
Could Labour perking up a bit be almost entirely due to the WASPI bung? People who wouldn't vote Labour unless you paid them, are literally getting paid to vote Labour. It would be interesting to see whether their vote share amongst females has increased, though the spouses could well be just as enthused.
There isn't really much the Tories can do. To attack the claim draws more people's attention to the free money.
All they can do is use the fact they've been conservative with the dosh so far, and come out with their own barrel of pork. Something eye catching to steal the agenda.
Brexit might be "consigned to the footnote of history", or there might be an ongoing struggle to rejoin the EU. I'm sure Jo Swinson's LibDems would be right on that, although Lab and Con might be glad to see the back of the topic.
I'm loath to write the obituary of a campaign that still has two weeks to run but there's been an avalanche of nonsense written about the LD campaign and once we get past 12/12 I'll respond to it. You may be right - so much will depend on the future economic and political relationship hammered out next year. It may be we end up with something very close to BINO or it may be much more distant. I think the former will weaken the desire to campaign to rejoin but if the impact of the latter isn't positive it will strengthen the argument to rejoin. Those seeking REMAIN have been fighting the wrong battle - they should have agreed to the WA (thus respecting the 2016 Referendum result which merely stated the fact of leaving not the basis) and then campaigned hard for a BINO political declaration and trade deal.
It makes no difference. No one believes a word politicians say anymore. After all, if vast swathes of them can lie about carrying out Brexit at the last election why should anyone believe what they say this time around? Basically the failure to accept the public vote in 2016 has broken politics in this country completely. Which is why Corbyn can get away with saying anything he likes and no argument against him will work.
I think that is correct, although Brexit is not the only cause.
The poisonous lies over the Iraq War from New Labour, the pledges over tuition fees from all parties, the failure to hold any one to account over the banking crisis, the "We're all in it together" spiel from Cameron and Clegg as they walk over to multi-million pound jobs. All parties have contributed to a huge corrosion of trust, including those elected on a manifesto to implement Brexit who then spent 3 years doing the opposite.
Corbyn can pretty much offer to bung 30k at all women born between 1950 and 1960, and most people will say (while accepting the money will probably never materialise) that it is no worse than the dishonest actions of other politicians from other parties.
That's a well-designed poster, especially the use of smudgy grey with the black, red, and yellow. How much does it all add up to, compared with the abolition of tuition fees, the introduction of free broadband, and the tightening of rent controls, for the median person who's unlikely to pay much (or any) inheritance tax and who doesn't own a business?
Comments
I could care less about his heritage . The fact hes also willing to sue the Dunn family for legal costs shows what a lowlife he is .
It has all suddenly gone quiet on getting Brexit done and we haven't had a recent conversation about the election.
Her £30k will be roughly the same as my additional income tax bill over a 5 year parliament but by the time you factor in all the additional taxes plus the impact of the 10% worker share scheme I could see the true cost nudging six figures for me.
It is democracy so you have to suck it up BUT if we escape a Corbyn government this time and there is no change in Labour direction before the next GE then it would be financial suicide to keep assets in the UK.
And if a no-mark like me is looking for the exit you can be sure that all the real money is either gone already or will be within hours of a Corbyn win.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1199381940354404353
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/would-you-vote-tactically-what-worries-you-most-about-a-tory-or-labour-government-what-would-actually-happen-under-johnson-or-corbyn-week-3-of-my-general-election-dashboard/#more-16283
And besides there is a democratic mechanism to rejoin the EU.
There is no turning back once the hundreds of billions have been spent...and we all know that as the election after this one approached there would be hundreds more spent bribing the electorate.
Your grand-kids and their kids are going to be the ones paying for it Nigel; you're loading up THEIR credit card with YOUR debt.
Your analysis is crass, asinine and dim.
Show the bungs to be a complete chimera that we’ll all end up paying for but, stick with them, and real sustainable rewards will come.
Raab seems to be a grade A example.
OGH seems to have backed the Lib Dems in every way possible. Didn't he say he made them EVS to take John Redwoods seat?
I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave.
The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative.
That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month.
For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
All but one of the groups (Lab 2017 voters, who voted Remain) say Corbyn as PM is their biggest fear.
No groups say Johnson as PM is their biggest fear.
Kinnock 1992 effect in play?
"Overall, 2017 Conservatives put their likelihood of staying with the party up a point at 77, with 2017 Labour voters’ chance of voting the same way again up from 55 to 60."
What will you infer from that !
One of the reasons I believe is that they didn't weight by IndyRef result.
Nahhh, couldn't happen!
And i'm a Tory.
Con 48% / Lab 33% / UKIP 4% / LDs 7%
Just saying
True, but the average lead was around 11% at this stage, and had been falling hard for a fair while beforehand. If it's going to do the same now, it's going to be much more sudden, compared to a fairly flat lead so far.
I’m a partisan poster
You’re an objective commentator
He’s a subjective fool prone to confirmation bias
If the leader of the Jews is as outspoken as he has been , you cannot attempt to sweep it under the carpet. (well you can but it will not wash.)
You are just trying to take the heat off Labour with a comment like that.
Good evening, everyone.
Con .............349
Lab ............. 218
LidUnDem .... 15
Brexit ............ 0
SNP .............. 45
Green ............ 1
Plaid .............. 4
N.I. .............. 18
Total ........... 650
Con Maj ........ 48
“The chances of “higher taxes for people like me” were thought to be only slightly higher under Labour (58/100) than under another Conservative government (51/100).”
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1199388426870677508
I don't see why you would have much to be scared about if he sat opposite to you on the tube.
Hoyle is running as Speaker...no one is running as Deputy Speaker.
If so, I guess you need to win 322 seats on the night?
Tories to get a small majority due to performance in the right marginals and good defence against the SNP.
This forecast will self-destruct in five seconds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50544283
My theory is that Corbyn imported the worst of it, when he became leader with his £3 members. There is a far left faction which has normalized Jew-hatred over decades, conflating it with anti-Zionism. They are often allied with radical Islam, which is obviously problematic. This far left faction moved into Labour to elect Corbyn, and they brought their anti Semitic baggage with them.
Now they are there it will be very hard to root it out, and I see zero real effort to do so. Corbyn seems to prefer attacking the messenger. He doesn’t believe there is a problem and he wouldn’t really care if there was
Tragic, really.
"Jeremy Corbyn has declined to apologise to the British Jewish community following criticism from the chief rabbi over how the party deals with anti-Semitism claims.
In an interview with the BBC's Andrew Neil, the Labour leader was asked four times whether he would like to apologise.
Mr Corbyn said he was "determined that our society is safe" for "all faiths" - but did not directly apologise."
That will mean a long night/morning/day on 13 Dec !
All is plausible especially Scotland.
The biggest obstacle to a Tory majority will be the weather.
What makes us think the poll profile rate of erosion must be equivalent to GE2017 as a rule of law? Ergo, because the “buffer” is higher at this stage of the game, the Tories will be ok?
It could be the same, or it could drop off more steeply, or bounce back, or just go nowhere.
There are no laws.
Khan must hope that Uber win the appeal, or any ban happens after the mayoral election
Having said that, I don't see why in our multi-party age we shouldn't break with convention to offer the SNP and LDs the privilege of holding Deputy Speakerships...
Panelbase GE17 Tory lead on D-16 = 15%
Panelbase GE19 Tory lead on D-20* = 10% (*the latest GE19 Panelbase we have)
Or with ICM:
ICM GE17 Tory lead on D-18 = 14%
ICM GE19 Tory lead on D-17 = 7%
My point is not that the Tories are not doing better than GE17 (they are) but that it's not over yet.
'If you want to ensure the UK's long term membership of the EU vote Conservative on December 12th'
Short version, we'll exit the EU with No Deal next December, sustained No Deal means us rejoining by 2030, once we're back in, we'll never leave, and we'll be fully integrated from the get go.
There isn't really much the Tories can do. To attack the claim draws more people's attention to the free money.
All they can do is use the fact they've been conservative with the dosh so far, and come out with their own barrel of pork. Something eye catching to steal the agenda.
You may be right - so much will depend on the future economic and political relationship hammered out next year. It may be we end up with something very close to BINO or it may be much more distant. I think the former will weaken the desire to campaign to rejoin but if the impact of the latter isn't positive it will strengthen the argument to rejoin.
Those seeking REMAIN have been fighting the wrong battle - they should have agreed to the WA (thus respecting the 2016 Referendum result which merely stated the fact of leaving not the basis) and then campaigned hard for a BINO political declaration and trade deal.
Giggling like a schoolboy here.
The poisonous lies over the Iraq War from New Labour, the pledges over tuition fees from all parties, the failure to hold any one to account over the banking crisis, the "We're all in it together" spiel from Cameron and Clegg as they walk over to multi-million pound jobs. All parties have contributed to a huge corrosion of trust, including those elected on a manifesto to implement Brexit who then spent 3 years doing the opposite.
Corbyn can pretty much offer to bung 30k at all women born between 1950 and 1960, and most people will say (while accepting the money will probably never materialise) that it is no worse than the dishonest actions of other politicians from other parties.