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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reporting from the front Lyme
As regular readers will know, I am the Conservative candidate for Newcastle-under-Lyme, a seat that has been Labour for a century and has not elected a Conservative since 1880. However I am now facing a majority of just 30, in a seat that voted around 63% to Leave. That’s the official Borough figure – Professor Chris Hanretty has the constituency a touch lower at 61.6% but observers who were at the referendum count disagree with that adjustment!
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Weren't we assured by many remainers here that he would be blamed?
This is ICM!
https://twitter.com/ICMResearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=20
The question is why?
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199279263440154626?s=20
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1199302964705447936?s=20
One of the most confusing things to me about economic development in the Internet Age has been the strengthening dominance of big cities such as London (but seen worldwide too). Naively I would have expected geography to matter less and for towns to benefit - large enough to have good internet connectivity (compared to rural areas), and with more space than in a crowded city.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1199305424132091904?s=20
However, I read in the Guardian that McDonnell "has been looking at the issue for some 18 months", so it is reasonable for journalists to question him on it.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/nov/23/station-pension-age-women-labour-compensation
Is it the student issue? WASPI? Johnson's frankly rubbish performances in front of camera?
Or just Labour coming home?
What's it all about?
I think we should be told.
The reason I'm asking this is because this could be nothing more than a blip. Or it could be the beginning of the end of the Conservatives. Or something in between.
All the leaders are working their socks off. With all their criss-crossing they can't all make every venue exactly on time. Not Johnson. Not Sturgeon. Not Swinson. Not Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1198699068953899008
We also need to hear from Angela Rayner's constituency, but I have no idea how it would be titled.
Good Luck Aaron. I imagine Caroline Flint will be pleased to see you in the Potteries, too.
If this pans out it's squeaky bum. 7% is right on the cusp of a tory majority.
And last time the pollsters almost invariably underestimated the Labour share by up to 6%.
2.8 million new registrations, many of them youngsters. I just wonder. Labour's bag of tricks might be pulling people in. The end of tuition fees must be a huge draw?
In respect of leader ratings the gold standard MORI had a 1% swing to Jezza, I.e. meaningless. It updates tomorrow as does Mori VI.
There should be a YouGov out today and the mrp tomorrow evening
There's only one thing that is fatal Diane, and that is knife crime.
Hand-wringing bollocks.
I have you down as a 3,000 majority
Con/Lab/LD/BXP
49/42/7/1
I will suggest three reasons:-
1. There is not much in the Tory manifesto. No eye-catching retail offer. Something towards students / the young should have been included.
2. For all the talk about people disliking Corbyn etc I think a lot of Labour voters are able somehow to disassociate voting Labour with supporting Corbyn. So they feel able to be as rude about Corbyn as possible but still tick the Labour box.
3. The Tories really have not attacked the Labour manifesto - it’s unaffordability, the cost, the unintended consequences, its authoritarianism (a state owned internet, FFS! - like Iran or China). They are - much like May- letting Labour’s manifesto go by default. Where the hell is the Tory treasury team, for instance?
The beautiful irony of this is that Tony Blair warned that a General Election would be more than about just Brexit. But the Tories haven't shown any adaptation and are still in robotic mode.
They may still win but this is sooooooooooooo like 2017 again.
Other than that having avoided a dementia tax gaffe in the manifesto provided the LD vote stays over 10% unlike 2017 the Tories should win a majority
Looks like you are putting a few shifts in. However, I think you'd probably win if you sat with your feet up for a month!
(The good luck comes in hoping the centre don't cock it up for you!)
Basically, David Cameron's mum was right. And so was Kate Hoey, and pb's very own TSE, who wrote a header on this.
Neither Boris nor Jo Swinson look the part. Look at recent news of Boris and he is scruffy at the Cenotaph, or clowning around with a sheep, and he deliberately tousles his thinning hair like Stan Laurel.
Jeremy Corbyn wears a sharp suit and tie. He looks like a prime minister. Boris and Jo need to get down to Savile Row sharpish.
Btw, Boris's photo ops are stage-managed, so CCHQ disagrees with me. Boris is generally shown joining in with the workers, with a broom or mop, or indeed sheep. At hospitals he takes off his jacket and rolls up his sleeves as if he has just delivered a premature baby.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1199267891385905152
He disgusts her
“The total cash supply expenditure authorised for 2016-17 was £479,543,120,000 (2015-16: £474,091,620,000) and accordingly the maximum capital, including the permanent capital, available to the Contingencies Fund in 2017-18 was £9,590,862,000 (2016-17: £9,481,832,000).”.
Nowhere near the £58 billion McDonnell is proposing to spend and doesn’t even allow for other contingencies.
The full report can be found here - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/719821/Contingencies_Fund_2017-18.pdf.
Took me all of 5 minutes to find this. What the the hell is the Tory campaign doing? Or journalists for that matter?
* I'm exaggerating, but it seems to be the main talking point in the media and most voters won't even look at it.
The main thing I raised was that the Trump vote had the potential to be incredibly efficient, and get just enough across the rust belt (plus existing states) to inch him over the line.
Conversely the Dem vote was going to be horribly inefficient even if Clinton won.
With a massive overweight California delivering lots of popular vote but no extra electoral college votes.
I wish I had bet on such accurate an penetrative insight.
So, here is my musing in 2019 and how the Cons avoid getting an easy majority.
Is the Con surge to 42%ish predicated entirely on Brexit party candidates standing down in Con seats. Are we about to see Con rack up massive majorities in seats they already hold and Labour just hang on in everything they are defending?
This is why the YouGov MRP is so important for understanding what is happening.
"Right it's going well but Labour's attempts to buy votes look like they might be working"
"Anyone got a plan ?"
"Michael, can you"
"I know what to do, leave it to me"
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199256752841281537?s=20
You might also enjoy Michael Crick’s piece for Mail+ this morning. It is a bit daunting when Mr Crick suddenly turns up in your constituency and wants an interview with 30 minutes’ notice!
https://www.mailplus.co.uk/tv/the-michael-crick-report/665/how-brexit-and-corbyn-could-cost-labour-a-seat-it-has-held-for-100-years
The Tories are far too invisible. You may not like hearing it but the Tories are simply not ruthless enough and far too complacent and there is plenty in Labour’s manifesto which is superficially attractive eg making sure that rented accommodation is fit for the purpose, for instance.
https://twitter.com/DanVevers/status/1199302949232664580