By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX
And the numbers for the statement from the Muslim Council of Britain?
Deflection tactics. Why not accept labour has a problem
And I do not selective quote. If yougov has a poll then please let me know
First annual report of the new parliamentary complaints system is out: 704 calls were made to the helpline re bullying and 79 re sexual harassment. The report specifies they were expecting c. 200 https://t.co/B8mNuXz2Fh
On topic, Newcastle-under-Lyme is a good example of a seat that has consistently been trending Tory. In 1992, it was 26 points more Labour than the nation. By 2010, this was reduced to 11 points more Labour than the nation and in 2017 became 2 points more Labour than the nation.
If the demographic rate of change (1 point more Tory per year) continues then it should now be an even seat (so Lab would have to beat the Tory vote share nationally to hang on).
On current polls, Aaron could expect a 5-6k majority and have a good shot at a long career as a Tory MP.
By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX
Difficult to believe YouGov really asked people whether they agreed with advice to people that they should "vote with their conscience." Still, at least they didn't add "or should they vote Labour against their conscience?"!
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
Codswallop...we have recieved 7 leaflets since expenses kicked in
On topic, Newcastle-under-Lyme is a good example of a seat that has consistently been trending Tory. In 1992, it was 26 points more Labour than the nation. By 2010, this was reduced to 11 points more Labour than the nation and in 2017 became 2 points more Labour than the nation.
If the demographic rate of change (1 point more Tory per year) continues then it should now be an even seat (so Lab would have to beat the Tory vote share nationally to hang on).
On current polls, Aaron could expect a 5-6k majority and have a good shot at a long career as a Tory MP.
My current waters are telling me that we will end up with about a 4% nationwide swing lab to con but this will be north, Midlands, wales focused so maybe up to 10% in leave seats here and standing still in the south etc. Labour might pick up the odd gain (and I know its Midlands but watch broxtowe) the Tories should shoot through 50 or so up north and end up on a 40ish majority The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
Just logged on to Corbyn's facebook page. You'd think it would be a safe space but bloody hell he's unpopular. I suspect Twitter is where his supporters prefer to spend their time.
Think I'll watch tonight's Andrew Neil interview and see how he gets on.
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
Codswallop...we have recieved 7 leaflets since expenses kicked in
Which bit of 'A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in' did you fail to understand?
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Until Lord JohnO tells us he's in trouble I won't take the prospect seriously.
My current waters are telling me that we will end up with about a 4% nationwide swing lab to con but this will be north, Midlands, wales focused so maybe up to 10% in leave seats here and standing still in the south etc. Labour might pick up the odd gain (and I know its Midlands but watch broxtowe) the Tories should shoot through 50 or so up north and end up on a 40ish majority The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
I agree with most of your view, but add Surrey and various isolated remain leaning seats (Winchester, Cheltenham, Cheadle, St Albans etc) to the LD haul. Surrey is not London (although parts of London are in Surrey)!
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Within (my) living memory we've had a Foreign Secretary speaking from the Lords.
My current waters are telling me that we will end up with about a 4% nationwide swing lab to con but this will be north, Midlands, wales focused so maybe up to 10% in leave seats here and standing still in the south etc. Labour might pick up the odd gain (and I know its Midlands but watch broxtowe) the Tories should shoot through 50 or so up north and end up on a 40ish majority The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
I've said all the way along Con would get a majority of around 30-40 seats and no amount of #PBTory bed-wetting will change my mind lol!
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
You mean that two parties with £20,000,000 each from some pretty dodgy downers are trying to attack a smaller party with a few millions donated by ordinary people?
My current waters are telling me that we will end up with about a 4% nationwide swing lab to con but this will be north, Midlands, wales focused so maybe up to 10% in leave seats here and standing still in the south etc. Labour might pick up the odd gain (and I know its Midlands but watch broxtowe) the Tories should shoot through 50 or so up north and end up on a 40ish majority The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
I agree with most of your view, but add Surrey and various isolated remain leaning seats (Winchester, Cheltenham, Cheadle, St Albans etc) to the LD haul. Surrey is not London (although parts of London are in Surrey)!
Fair comment although I am sending less noise from these locations. The clamor is increasingly up the capital. May just be my tin ear though. I'll say it again , watch Broxtowe and Edinburgh SW
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Within (my) living memory we've had a Foreign Secretary speaking from the Lords.
Indeed, he was the Foreign Secretary when I joined the FCO
My current waters are telling me that we will end up with about a 4% nationwide swing lab to con but this will be north, Midlands, wales focused so maybe up to 10% in leave seats here and standing still in the south etc. Labour might pick up the odd gain (and I know its Midlands but watch broxtowe) the Tories should shoot through 50 or so up north and end up on a 40ish majority The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
I've said all the way along Con would get a majority of around 30-40 seats and no amount of #PBTory bed-wetting will change my mind lol!
Good on you Gin
My conservative candidate contact and I have been in text conversations this pm and he is confident of success and says the party is aware of the waspi bribe and potential damage and the party will keep it under review. He had met a waspi this afternoon who was fully aware of the bribe but does not believe labour can deliver on it, and she will be voting conservative
My current waters are telling me that we will end up with about a 4% nationwide swing lab to con but this will be north, Midlands, wales focused so maybe up to 10% in leave seats here and standing still in the south etc. Labour might pick up the odd gain (and I know its Midlands but watch broxtowe) the Tories should shoot through 50 or so up north and end up on a 40ish majority The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
I've said all the way along Con would get a majority of around 30-40 seats and no amount of #PBTory bed-wetting will change my mind lol!
We do want some cracking lol moments up north though
Give us a precis or let me guess. Corbyn's not a filthy anti-semite?
He doesn't get a mention. The article manages to discuss things such as zionism and jewish identity through a lens other than whether Jeremy Corbyn is an anitsemite or just antisemitic. I know!
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Nope.Raab is actually pretty popular in E and W unlike Ian Taylor who none of us could stand.
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Maybe
Tbf, I thought it was impossible for the Tories to lose Esher, but no one can accuse Raab of not doing his best to achieve the impossible. I still think it is unlikely but the way it is going I would not put it past him to mug a granny or eat a baby just to reinforce his image before the vote.
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Within (my) living memory we've had a Foreign Secretary speaking from the Lords.
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?
Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.
Well, of course it's difficult to tell what's an outlier and what isn't before we know the election result. :-)
I just think people need to acknowledge that there is less certainty about the outcome of this election than many are assuming.
No, you can tell what is an outlier by comparing it to other polls. What you can't tell is whether all the polls as a whole are systematically wrong.
Hmm. Well, I suppose it depends how you define an outlier. If you mean it just differs significantly from the other polls, I suppose you are right. On the other hand, when people talk about outliers I think there's an implicit assumption that sampling isn't biased. In that case, an outlier might be the result of bias. With your definition, an outlier might be the one accurate poll in a collection of otherwise biased ones!
I'm using the meaning of outlier as defined for statistics and so, yes, it is possible for a statistical outlier in the fortuitously correct direction to cancel out a systematic bias - this is one reason why the polling beauty parade against the election result is a bit harsh on individual pollsters.
My point is that, statistically, you will expect to see outliers, in both directions, but they still give us useful information. For example, we now have 41 polls with fieldwork at least partially in November. You'd expect these to span 97.5% of the distribution of sample means, at least, and the range for the Tory lead over Labour is 6-19pp. With, say, another 30 polls left in the campaign the chance of a new poll falling outside of this range purely by chance starts to decline. It becomes now likely that it's an outlier and a shift in the population mean at the same time.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
Codswallop...we have recieved 7 leaflets since expenses kicked in
Which bit of 'A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in' did you fail to understand?
If I google image search the niqab then right click on one of the pictures and choose "search Google for image" then click on "Visually similar images", it brings up a mix of women in niqabs and men in balaclavas, some of the men carrying guns, some of whom are bank robbers, some terrorists.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Do you have an update on your model with the latest Scottish poll?
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Nope.Raab is actually pretty popular in E and W unlike Ian Taylor who none of us could stand.
Raab is not even popular with his own family - but even that should not be enough to prevent his reelection.
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
And they print a lot of their own. Paper and ink are relatively inexpensive.
Is anyone offering money on both Corbyn and Johnson giving notice of resignation on December 13?
I think it's plausible, though not necessarily likely, they could both be gone by (say) Easter. Corbyn felled by the election, Johnson felled by Arcuri or some yet-to-be-discovered scandal.
My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31. Bath Bermondsey and Old Southwark Cambridge Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Eastbourne Hazel Grove Kingston and Surbiton Leeds North West Lewes North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park Sheffield, Hallam Southport St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Twickenham Wells Westmorland and Lonsdale Winchester
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
But most of this stuff is coming out centrally. They are others I know who have had nine pieces of literature. You are allowed roughly 15k..there are 75000 electors and around 300000 houses.. So 50p per household 9 bits of lit already..that is why the central offices think the LDs have got this seriously wrong
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
And they print a lot of their own. Paper and ink are relatively inexpensive.
It's the number of bits that are coming with the post that make this not stand up
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Do you have an update on your model with the latest Scottish poll?
Yeah, I posted it a little bit back, the seat ranges are (depending on turnout)
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX
And the numbers for the statement from the Muslim Council of Britain?
Deflection tactics. Why not accept labour has a problem
And I do not selective quote. If yougov has a poll then please let me know
Regrettably there are racists in my party. I want them kicked out. Entryists and nut-jobs who have no place in Labour.
They are outnumbered by the racists in your party. I'm sure you want them kicked out too.
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Nope.Raab is actually pretty popular in E and W unlike Ian Taylor who none of us could stand.
Raab is not even popular with his own family - but even that should not be enough to prevent his reelection.
Technically not true. My son goes to school with someone who claims to be in Raab's family and they are very proud of him. Much to the befuddlement of my son, I hasten to add.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Do you have an update on your model with the latest Scottish poll?
Yeah, I posted it a little bit back, the seat ranges are (depending on turnout)
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
They are t allowed to throw a fortune at it...they are going to be seriously stuffed
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
Maybe
Tbf, I thought it was impossible for the Tories to lose Esher, but no one can accuse Raab of not doing his best to achieve the impossible. I still think it is unlikely but the way it is going I would not put it past him to mug a granny or eat a baby just to reinforce his image before the vote.
It's absolutely one of those seats he could lose by 200 votes or win by 10,000 and we wonder what all the fuss was about.
On the one hand it is well positioned for Lib Dem activists to flood in from Twickenham, Richmond and Kingston, yet on the other hand it must be fairly similar in make up to Spelthorne nextdoor which is going to have a stonking Tory majority for Kwasi Kwarteng.
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
Tuition fees - middle class bung. Free broadband - middle class bung. WASPI bribe - middle class bung.
By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX
And the numbers for the statement from the Muslim Council of Britain?
Deflection tactics. Why not accept labour has a problem
And I do not selective quote. If yougov has a poll then please let me know
Regrettably there are racists in my party. I want them kicked out. Entryists and nut-jobs who have no place in Labour.
They are outnumbered by the racists in your party. I'm sure you want them kicked out too.
The evidence suggest otherwise.
The racists in our party get shown the door pronto. Labour's? They never seem to quite get around to discovering where the door is.....
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
Codswallop...we have recieved 7 leaflets since expenses kicked in
Only 7.....You are been left off lightly....No sign of a let up on the Lib Dem propaganda being sent to Chez Urquhart.
On topic, Newcastle-under-Lyme is a good example of a seat that has consistently been trending Tory. In 1992, it was 26 points more Labour than the nation. By 2010, this was reduced to 11 points more Labour than the nation and in 2017 became 2 points more Labour than the nation.
If the demographic rate of change (1 point more Tory per year) continues then it should now be an even seat (so Lab would have to beat the Tory vote share nationally to hang on).
On current polls, Aaron could expect a 5-6k majority and have a good shot at a long career as a Tory MP.
Which in itself would be no bad thing.
I have to take issue with ... “Get Brexit Done” is a very appealing message... though.
My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31. Bath Bermondsey and Old Southwark Cambridge Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Eastbourne Hazel Grove Kingston and Surbiton Leeds North West Lewes North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park Sheffield, Hallam Southport St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Twickenham Wells Westmorland and Lonsdale Winchester
If you were asked for a list of the 25 nicest places to live in England, it wouldn’t look very different to that
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
My Local LibDems have their own Ashdown BarChart'O'Matic9000, replacing the KennedyTron600 that kept breaking down and a vintage Campbell-Cable machine that was from the Ark. They decided not to purchase the CleggOne because it kept connecting to other people's networks.
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
Tuition fees - middle class bung. Free broadband - middle class bung. WASPI bribe - middle class bung.
- Nadine Dorries - Helen Goodman - Harriet Harman - Mary Beard - Patricia Scotland - Helena Kennedy QC - Valerie Amos - Emma Dent Road - Heather Wheeler - Valerie Vaz - Anna Soubry - Anne-Marie Morris - Caroline Lucas - Emily Thornberry - Vera Baird QC - Deborah Meaden
They are all WASPI women, all born between 1950 and 1959 and therefore, according to Labour, suffering from a terrible injustice, requiring £58 billion pounds to be spent on them - and not, please note, women born after that date who have also had the date when they could claim the state pension postponed.
On another note most people have been surprised by the levels of lib dem literature they have already received. There are words going around both Labour and Connservative central offices that the LDs are in serious breach of their spending limits. Centrally posted and distributed stuff now counts against an individual constituency when it turns up. What may happen?
A lot of their leaflets were sent before the campaign limits kicked in - they were ahead of the game on that.
Codswallop...we have recieved 7 leaflets since expenses kicked in
Expenses need not necessarily have kicked in until 14 November. They have been going some if you have had seven leaflets since then?
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
Tuition fees - middle class bung. Free broadband - middle class bung. WASPI bribe - middle class bung.
I'm detecting a pattern here.
Why is WASPI a middle class bung?
You don't think that sort of money could be better spent on helping the worst off in society, rather than giving millions of the middle class £20k?
By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX
And the numbers for the statement from the Muslim Council of Britain?
Deflection tactics. Why not accept labour has a problem
And I do not selective quote. If yougov has a poll then please let me know
Regrettably there are racists in my party. I want them kicked out. Entryists and nut-jobs who have no place in Labour.
They are outnumbered by the racists in your party. I'm sure you want them kicked out too.
There are issues in both parties but labour are the one under investigation by EHRC
Sajid Javid has confirmed this afternoon the conservsative party are to conduct an investigation into Islamophobia in the party
My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31. Bath Bermondsey and Old Southwark Cambridge Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Eastbourne Hazel Grove Kingston and Surbiton Leeds North West Lewes North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park Sheffield, Hallam Southport St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Twickenham Wells Westmorland and Lonsdale Winchester
If you were asked for a list of the 25 nicest places to live in England, it wouldn’t look very different to that
My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31. Bath Bermondsey and Old Southwark Cambridge Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Eastbourne Hazel Grove Kingston and Surbiton Leeds North West Lewes North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park Sheffield, Hallam Southport St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Twickenham Wells Westmorland and Lonsdale Winchester
I see the home counties seats of Guildford and Wimbledon as more likely that N Devon and N Cornwall (and possibly easier within that area than Sutton). So much depends on how the Labour vote behaves in London. A meltdown in key seats accompanied by tactical voting could deliver Hampstead, Finchley, City of London, Vauxhall and Kensington. But if they hold together the Tories will hold Wimbledon and Sutton.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Do you have an update on your model with the latest Scottish poll?
Yeah, I posted it a little bit back, the seat ranges are (depending on turnout)
Con = 11-12 Lab = 1-3 LD = 4 SNP = 41-43
My apologies for not catching it earlier!
It's a very unexciting forecast. Its pretty much exactly what you would expect. The only surprise is LD don't take NE Fife under any turnout level.
The results start getting interesting as the LD number Goes up just a bit and the Con vote goes down a bit. Con suddenly lose a pile of seats. They are effectively a good distance away from a very precipitous cliff edge.
I should probably setup some monte carlo testing based on polling Margin of Error to see what the "true" seat ranges of my model are.
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".
And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.
Pretty hard to criticise Boris Johnson on trust or come across as a serious alternative when you are using phrases like Prime Minister Jo Swinson.
The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Do you have an update on your model with the latest Scottish poll?
Yeah, I posted it a little bit back, the seat ranges are (depending on turnout)
Con = 11-12 Lab = 1-3 LD = 4 SNP = 41-43
My apologies for not catching it earlier!
It's a very unexciting forecast. Its pretty much exactly what you would expect. The only surprise is LD don't take NE Fife under any turnout level.
The results start getting interesting as the LD number Goes up just a bit and the Con vote goes down a bit. Con suddenly lose a pile of seats. They are effectively a good distance away from a very precipitous cliff edge.
I should probably setup some monte carlo testing based on polling Margin of Error to see what the "true" seat ranges of my model are.
Monte Carlo? Now you've got me excited. Would be interesting to see the distribution of seat numbers for each party from those draws.
My 25 LD seats in England (plus five in Scotland and one in Wales) making 31. Bath Bermondsey and Old Southwark Cambridge Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Eastbourne Hazel Grove Kingston and Surbiton Leeds North West Lewes North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park Sheffield, Hallam Southport St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Twickenham Wells Westmorland and Lonsdale Winchester
If you were asked for a list of the 25 nicest places to live in England, it wouldn’t look very different to that
Would remove:
Cheadle Eastbourne Hazel Grove North Cornwall North Devon North Norfolk Southport Sutton & Cheam Wells Westmoreland Winchester
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
Tuition fees - middle class bung. Free broadband - middle class bung. WASPI bribe - middle class bung.
I'm detecting a pattern here.
Why is WASPI a middle class bung?
Those on benefits would lose the bung as it would be deducted from the benefits if I understand it correctly.
One way the LDs keep costs down is that in many seats they do all their own printing - so the costs are just paper and ink plus hire of the printing machine.
And what did they print? "Meet Prime Minister Jo Swinson".
And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.
Pretty hard to criticise Boris Johnson on trust or come across as a serious alternative when you are using phrases like Prime Minister Jo Swinson.
The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.
Yes, Revoke was a terrible error. I see that the LDs acknowledge this in the FT today
By 44% to 27% the public say that the Chief Rabbi of the UK was right to speak out regarding his criticism of Labour’s record on dealing with anti-Semitism. 68% of Tory voters are of this opinion compared to only 26% of Labour voters https://t.co/bXeFtriFX9https://t.co/D5grX0u6yX
And the numbers for the statement from the Muslim Council of Britain?
Deflection tactics. Why not accept labour has a problem
And I do not selective quote. If yougov has a poll then please let me know
Regrettably there are racists in my party. I want them kicked out. Entryists and nut-jobs who have no place in Labour.
They are outnumbered by the racists in your party. I'm sure you want them kicked out too.
The evidence suggest otherwise.
The racists in our party get shown the door pronto. Labour's? They never seem to quite get around to discovering where the door is.....
Your party made one of the racists its current leader.
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
Tuition fees - middle class bung. Free broadband - middle class bung. WASPI bribe - middle class bung.
I'm detecting a pattern here.
Why is WASPI a middle class bung?
Those on benefits would lose the bung as it would be deducted from the benefits if I understand it correctly.
Madness. I have sympathy for those who experienced genuine hardship, but I suspect the vast majority of these women simply worked a few years more.
The blues have an opening to attack labour on trust/corruption. Shadow home and foreign secretaries to trouser a waspi bung and tax increases set for earners just above the level of MPs. Enriching themselves. Powerful attack line.
It's about time someone held Corbyn to account on WASPI and found out the detail of the proposal. Andrew Neil would be a good person to do so, like tonight.
This WASPI thing gets more interesting. Apparently Emma Thompson, Kate Bush, Dawn French and Sarah Ferguson will be amongst the beneficiaries. I'm not sure a Labour Government should be adding to the nation's already mighty borrowing to compensate such ladies.
Tuition fees - middle class bung. Free broadband - middle class bung. WASPI bribe - middle class bung.
I'm detecting a pattern here.
Why is WASPI a middle class bung?
It is not means tested in any way. So it will be given to anyone in the right age group, regardless of means, and the more a person has worked the more they will get. So higher earners or those working for longer will likely get more money. It is not just middle class women who will get it but an awful lot of those who will get it are in no sense financially badly off.
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Do you have an update on your model with the latest Scottish poll?
Yeah, I posted it a little bit back, the seat ranges are (depending on turnout)
Con = 11-12 Lab = 1-3 LD = 4 SNP = 41-43
My apologies for not catching it earlier!
It's a very unexciting forecast. Its pretty much exactly what you would expect. The only surprise is LD don't take NE Fife under any turnout level.
The results start getting interesting as the LD number Goes up just a bit and the Con vote goes down a bit. Con suddenly lose a pile of seats. They are effectively a good distance away from a very precipitous cliff edge.
I should probably setup some monte carlo testing based on polling Margin of Error to see what the "true" seat ranges of my model are.
Monte Carlo? Now you've got me excited. Would be interesting to see the distribution of seat numbers for each party from those draws.
I love how we have the phrase monte carlo.
It sounds so glamorous and mysterious. As opposed to "I should probably setup some repeatedly picking random numbers testing"
I see that the problems of Dominic Raab are growing ever greater; I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting. His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs. Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit. And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Good afternoon fellow PBers. It is well seeing that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is seen as one of the key marginals in Scotland. I have just had the 6th and 7th pieces of literature from/on behalf of Jamie Stone with barcharts everywhere. Liberals must be throwing a fortune at this seat, possibly because their canvas returns are showing the unionist vote swinging solidly behind the SCons.
Is this statement based on information or wish fulfillment?
Information from a couple of well placed Liberal sources I am pally with. Also confirms what my SCon contacts are telling me. Jamie himself told me a fortnight ago he is very worried about the SNP retaking the seat.
If it is of any interest - expect more constituency polls soon. I've just been called by IQR market research, and a large proportion of the questions focused on candidates. Possibly internal party polling not for public domain mind, and if so, I'd guess the Cons rather than Labour (e.g. who's most likely to get Brexit done, who is biggest risk, trust, best on economy, NHS, education).
It's about time someone held Corbyn to account on WASPI and found out the detail of the proposal. Andrew Neil would be a good person to do so, like tonight.
May I nominate Adam Price of Plaid Cymru for the Manspreader of the Year Award? His intervew with Jo Coburn of the BBC shouldn't be missed. He sat with his feet a yard apart, toes pointed in opposite directions, and kept bouncing on his seat aiming his crotch in Jo's direction. Top work!
Comments
And I do not selective quote. If yougov has a poll then please let me know
If the demographic rate of change (1 point more Tory per year) continues then it should now be an even seat (so Lab would have to beat the Tory vote share nationally to hang on).
On current polls, Aaron could expect a 5-6k majority and have a good shot at a long career as a Tory MP.
The LDs are going to monster parts of London but do f all anywhere else
Think I'll watch tonight's Andrew Neil interview and see how he gets on.
I had already noted the exclusion of Harry Dunn's parents from the East Molesey hustings, enforced by his heavies. Now that story is being widely covered in both national and local media, with the Dunn's labelling him a coward. And he really should not have shouted at them as he fled after the meeting.
His predecessor as Tory MP for Esher (Ian Taylor) has come out and called for the voters to back the LDs.
Last night he was heckled and laughed at in Cobham when he called for the audience to support Brexit.
And all of this after the Independent (whose views I usually discount) wrote "This has been quite the week for Dominic Raab. He’s managed to turn the Conservative Central Office “biggest a****hole in the cabinet” stakes from a competitive betting heat into a potential walkover."
Perhaps we are in for a Balls or Portillo moment.
https://www.costofcorbyn.com/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAt_PuBRDcARIsAMNlBdrjzzB1jFx_zz9gDvUv981Wuemv4eOprj-SQGECzvK6qOuYOY3sHVIaAj49EALw_wcB#
I was just having a look at manifestos and it seems that this is starting to be triggered off certain key words like “labour policies”. Heh.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-muslim-women-letterboxes-burqa-islamphobia-rise-a9088476.html
The conservatives use of social media is greatly improved and who knows how the effectiveness will pay off
I'll say it again , watch Broxtowe
My conservative candidate contact and I have been in text conversations this pm and he is confident of success and says the party is aware of the waspi bribe and potential damage and the party will keep it under review. He had met a waspi this afternoon who was fully aware of the bribe but does not believe labour can deliver on it, and she will be voting conservative
Or have I misinterpreted the chart?
I know!
My point is that, statistically, you will expect to see outliers, in both directions, but they still give us useful information. For example, we now have 41 polls with fieldwork at least partially in November. You'd expect these to span 97.5% of the distribution of sample means, at least, and the range for the Tory lead over Labour is 6-19pp. With, say, another 30 polls left in the campaign the chance of a new poll falling outside of this range purely by chance starts to decline. It becomes now likely that it's an outlier and a shift in the population mean at the same time.
“Instead of spending £150 million on two more referendums....“
I must conclude that Google is Islamophobic.
#ge2019
Source: Savanta-ComRes https://t.co/vQ917eNuW2
Bath
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
Kingston and Surbiton
Leeds North West
Lewes
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Oxford West and Abingdon
Richmond Park
Sheffield, Hallam
Southport
St Albans
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Twickenham
Wells
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Winchester
It's a done deal......
They are others I know who have had nine pieces of literature.
You are allowed roughly 15k..there are 75000 electors and around 300000 houses..
So 50p per household
9 bits of lit already..that is why the central offices think the LDs have got this seriously wrong
And then thrown away.
Con = 11-12
Lab = 1-3
LD = 4
SNP = 41-43
They are outnumbered by the racists in your party. I'm sure you want them kicked out too.
And 1 in 4 of their voters went walkabout.
On the one hand it is well positioned for Lib Dem activists to flood in from Twickenham, Richmond and Kingston, yet on the other hand it must be fairly similar in make up to Spelthorne nextdoor which is going to have a stonking Tory majority for Kwasi Kwarteng.
I'm detecting a pattern here.
The racists in our party get shown the door pronto. Labour's? They never seem to quite get around to discovering where the door is.....
Worth a read.
I have to take issue with ... “Get Brexit Done” is a very appealing message... though.
https://t.co/INvLGytACx
Make the wasps buzz a different tune
- Nadine Dorries
- Helen Goodman
- Harriet Harman
- Mary Beard
- Patricia Scotland
- Helena Kennedy QC
- Valerie Amos
- Emma Dent Road
- Heather Wheeler
- Valerie Vaz
- Anna Soubry
- Anne-Marie Morris
- Caroline Lucas
- Emily Thornberry
- Vera Baird QC
- Deborah Meaden
They are all WASPI women, all born between 1950 and 1959 and therefore, according to Labour, suffering from a terrible injustice, requiring £58 billion pounds to be spent on them - and not, please note, women born after that date who have also had the date when they could claim the state pension postponed.
Sajid Javid has confirmed this afternoon the conservsative party are to conduct an investigation into Islamophobia in the party
It’s mildly reassuring, but the fieldwork is a bit old?
The results start getting interesting as the LD number Goes up just a bit and the Con vote goes down a bit. Con suddenly lose a pile of seats. They are effectively a good distance away from a very precipitous cliff edge.
I should probably setup some monte carlo testing based on polling Margin of Error to see what the "true" seat ranges of my model are.
The Lib Dems had a great opportunity. All they needed to do is unequivocally say they want a second referendum while backing Remain. They could even have been cheeky - acknowledge that they are not going to win a majority but then suggest neither is Jeremy Corbyn and a vote for the Liberal Democrats would provide seats for them to moderate and restrain the worst excesses of the larger parties. That could have sounded like a sane alternative . . . instead she went for 'I will be Prime Minister and revoke without a referendum'.
Sautéed with mushrooms in butter - or with bacon - is pretty good, though.
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
North Cornwall
North Devon
North Norfolk
Southport
Sutton & Cheam
Wells
Westmoreland
Winchester
Would add:
Cities of London
South Cambridgeshire
It sounds so glamorous and mysterious. As opposed to "I should probably setup some repeatedly picking random numbers testing"