You see what beats me is why we made this idiotic 50k nurses claim. 30k would have been fine, it's a huge number and easy to campaign with. No need to defend it either.
My guess is the 50k number came from civil service policy work and was picked up and used by the Tory party without analysis of what it actually said.
If you’re doing workforce planning, part of the answer to increasing the size of your workforce is retention. In fact, if you only do it by recruitment you won’t have experienced staff to train and manage the new ones.
So in a Gvt internal document you’d talk about an increase of 50k, including some retention measures, and it would be accurate. Not so great as a political message.
You see what beats me is why we made this idiotic 50k nurses claim. 30k would have been fine, it's a huge number and easy to campaign with. No need to defend it either.
Big round numbers, almost always a sign that the policy is not quite what it is being presented as. It annoys me no end.
To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.
For the mathmatically inclined, in a two possible outcome bet is it better to LAY option 1 at 1.54 or to BACK option 2 at 3.15? I know I ought to know this but digital odds make my head spin, especially when laying.
The latter. Risk 100 to get 315. Option 1 risk 100 to get 285. (They stake 185 @ 1.54 to win your 100).
Boris has simply course corrected for every one of May’s mistakes, and rolled the dice again.
He’s done nothing else.
You’ve have thought some independent strategic thinking wouldn’t have gone amiss about the circumstances *today* and broader mood and direction of the British electorate, playing the long game. But, no. It’s all last war stuff.
He may just get away with it (postals are already coming back in and it’s barely two weeks away, as opposed to May’s factory of banana skins that had another week or two to develop) but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him limp across the line none the wiser.
So what's the best strategic response: attack the Waspi or match the Waspi?
On the election as a whole: depressing as it is how easily the electorate falls for a raft of incredibly expensive bribes, I'm fairly Zen if they get what they deserve as a result - a hung Parliament in which they'll get no bribes, no Brexit, endless political and economic paralysis, and most probably several years of Boris governing impotently in the minority and cutting ribbons at fetes.
If the voters lack the critical thinking to understand that that is exactly the result that a vote for Labour will produce, well, that's democracy for you.
Recognise what the electorate wants (a better quality of life that delivers for them) and argue how Conservatives principles will deliver it in the medium-long run with some examples, rather than short-term bungs giving a temporary high and then cold turkey.
Rejecting the corporation tax cut using *Labour* arguments was stupid and entirely the wrong thing to do.
It amounted to an intellectual surrender on everything the Tories have been doing over the last nine years. When you do that you move the battle onto the opponents turf very favourably.
To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.
Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.
While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority. It seems to be down to just how shit the Lib Dem campaign is that they are being squeezed by Labour.
To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.
Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.
While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority.
Do you think the Tories can't win a majority with a 42-36 result? I think that would be enough. 42-37 would be too close to call.
For the Greens, that must surely be a fair chunk of their total election spending? If they stood in fewer places they could direct a lot more budget to those. Or do the individual candidates stump up (and so not transferable to other locations if they didn't stand). Does anyone know?
Is there also not the issue of short money? Yes, Greens will lose deposits (that are yes, either stumped up by the candidate or fund raised during the campaign), but for every 200 votes the party gets £33.33 annually.
Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?
It's just two polls so far this week - there'll be at least another 10 or so come Sunday.
Yes, but in the two? There’s a difference between a movement on those who had declared, and a firming up of the “don’t know”s. If the latter, we might expect to see some difference in polling based on turnout assumptions.
To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.
Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.
While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority.
Do you think the Tories can't win a majority with a 42-36 result? I think that would be enough. 42-37 would be too close to call.
I think something like that is very dicey, because I am sure we are going to see some weird upset seats that Tories lose to a strong remain area and a lot of seats will be really dependent on Labour / Lib Dem spitting the vote to let Tories through the middle (and the trend seems to be away from Lib Dems).
Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.
That shouldn't be too hard. I'm sure Labour can identify another group of a few million people that they could bung £100 billion at for any old reason.
Roast potatoes looks well placed to win the savoury round, and with good reason.
I think that Christmas pudding is undermarked in the sweet section. I've never eaten an Eton Mess as a matter of principle.
Roast beef got a harsh first round drawing.
The only rival there is Yorkshire Pudding.
I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?
A : Salmon and Parsnips B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!] D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.
For instance, re the WASPI payment, McDonnell is saying that this is not costed because this is some sort of contingency payment - similar to paying compensation after a court order. Setting aside the obvious nonsense in that statement, why has no-one pointed out that according to the Treasury’s own report for 2017-2018 - “The total cash supply expenditure authorised for 2016-17 was £479,543,120,000 (2015-16: £474,091,620,000) and accordingly the maximum capital, including the permanent capital, available to the Contingencies Fund in 2017-18 was £9,590,862,000 (2016-17: £9,481,832,000).”. Nowhere near the £58 billion McDonnell is proposing to spend and doesn’t even allow for other contingencies. The full report can be foundr?
I
Plus the Tory social media campaign is far better than 2017 at exposing Labour tax rises for example
How is the canvassing going there?
The Tories vote is holding up, however Labour are also getting out their vote
Thanks very much. Fascinating area in relation to national results
The challenge the Tories have in a seat like Chingford is not that supporters are changing to other parties but that they are disappearing and being replaced with Labour voters.
Haven’t been there for probably a decade so that is news to me. What is bringing about this change?
Generalising terribly. The traditional source of people north and east London - people from inner East London who have done well, moving out in middle age or for retirement, has pretty much dried up, except for Asian families who tend toward Labour. White people in such positions are moving straight out of London altogether. Those who are already there are dying, or retiring to Essex, and often these houses end up being retained and turned into lets, or bought as BTL, converted into flats and bedsits and let to younger people who tend toward Labour, or to non-voting EU citizens. The birth rate among the Asian population is significantly higher, hence those joining the register at age 18 are significantly more ethnic than the adult population. All of these factors together work against the Tories. IDS may hold on this time but I’d put money on it being Labour by 2024.
It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long. Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.
Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson. This spells huge trouble for the Tories.
Xmas pudding should NOT be 'low tier', it should be much nearer the top. I really do like it a lot. I can't understand why the default answer to "How much?" when it's offered at actual Xmas seems to be "Oh just a sliver". That is not what I say. I always say "A really big piece please". Which I never have any problem whatsoever in finishing (brandy cream and all). Seconds even? No, but not because I couldn't.
To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.
Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.
While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority.
Do you think the Tories can't win a majority with a 42-36 result? I think that would be enough. 42-37 would be too close to call.
It really depends on the efficiency of the vote. We know the SNP vote will be efficient, and we can assume that geographical clusters will be work for LD and Lab, with the argument being LDs holding / making gains in the South generally, and Lab holding enough in the North and losing votes in the South (outside of London). That's the difficult bit to figure out. You see some constituency polls suggesting huge surges for LDs to 30-40%+ of the vote, which helps this theory. The main thing we aren't seeing in constituency polling is Labour holding in places they need to, like NuL and the other Stoke seats.
It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long. Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.
Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson. This spells huge trouble for the Tories.
To be fair that just gets Labour to where they are in the majority of polls (low 30s) so the +5 looks dramatic but the 27% they polled in the previous Kanter was probably too low.
Sort of. What I think we are now seeing is Labour have got through the 30% ceiling that they were stuck at for over 2 weeks. If they can squeeze another 3-4% in the next 2 weeks, chances of Tory majority are very slim to none.
While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority.
Do you think the Tories can't win a majority with a 42-36 result? I think that would be enough. 42-37 would be too close to call.
I think something like that is very dicey, because I am sure we are going to see some weird upset seats that Tories lose to a strong remain area and a lot of seats will be really dependent on Labour / Lib Dem spitting the vote to let Tories through the middle (and the trend seems to be away from Lib Dems).
It would be dicey and no guarantee, but the Tories have fewer remain seats they can lose than leave seats they can win. They won the vote by 2.4% in 2017 and were only a handful of seats short of a majority. If they double that lead, even with some unusual swings they have a good chance of getting over the line IMO. But 100% there needs to be a Lab to Con swing in leave areas for them to have a chance.
Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?
Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.
Boris has simply course corrected for every one of May’s mistakes, and rolled the dice again.
He’s done nothing else.
You’ve have thought some independent strategic thinking wouldn’t have gone amiss about the circumstances *today* and broader mood and direction of the British electorate, playing the long game. But, no. It’s all last war stuff.
He may just get away with it (postals are already coming back in and it’s barely two weeks away, as opposed to May’s factory of banana skins that had another week or two to develop) but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him limp across the line none the wiser.
So what's the best strategic response: attack the Waspi or match the Waspi?
3 things:- 1. Undermine the claim of fairness by strongly pointing out the unfairness to other groups. 2. Point out ad nauseam that the courts have ruled against these women. They are doing “Tails I win, heads you lose.” 3. Find some well-known reasonably well-off women in the right age group who would benefit and point out that Labour is prioritising these well off women over police or nurses etc. Shall I send my fee to CCHQ? I don’t even support this lot so I am doing this for money and because incompetence and bribery annoy me.
Plus the Tory social media campaign is far better than 2017 at exposing Labour tax rises for example
The bug/feature with microtargeted social media campaigns is no-one else, not the media, not your opponents and not even your own canvassers, can see it. And if your opponents cannot see what you are saying, they cannot counter it.
I’ve thought for a long time that Labour voters just can’t help it.
This election will confirm it.
As I have pointed out since the beginning, Tories huge margins have been down to big leads in the North among working class folk. It ain't going to happen, you watch when it comes to it they will convince themselves that Jezza will still enable Brexit to happen and that they just can't vote for Boris / Tories.
Don't pollsters say it takes 3 days for 'an event' to filter through to polling and 7 days for it to disappear if it didn't have a lasting impact? So we aren't yet into the polling that has reacted to the Con Manifesto launch.
Er, yes. What was that about again? Potholes and nurses, right?
Parsnips are disgusting and who is Yougov surveying who'd know an Eton mess from a smashed-up pavlova?
Parsnips should be thoroughly parboiled then roasted until they are only just recognisable as parsnips and then they are one of god's most perfect creations.
The best way to have parsnips is grated in parsnip and onion bhajis. I've made them for about 30 different people, and they've all said they were the best bhajis they've ever had.
Point of (anecdotal) order: My mum always reminds me that "bhaji" is a curry. The fried things are called "bhajia(s)".
It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long. Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.
Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson. This spells huge trouble for the Tories.
Yep.
I agree, it’s probably Bozo. The only counter-argument is that HY has spent months telling everyone how brilliant he will be on the election trail.
Descending to discussing leaders’ dress sense is pretty poor; although it is true that Jo only seems to be able to wear one colour at a time, this is hardly a criterion for deciding how to vote.
Although during my many years as a councillor I came across a variety of bizarre reasons why people voted for me, or not.
Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?
Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.
Yes that’s fair. And if you were the Tories you might quite like an unsubstantiated “wobble” narrative, followed by the “come back”. Like when Cameron (literally) rolled up his sleeves in 2015.
Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?
Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.
The last round of polls from all the major companies now have Labour at 30% or above and as high as 34% in more than one. A week ago all but one had them at or below with the average for past 2 weeks still below. It is undenable that Labour have picked up 2-3% . Tory level in contrast now seems to have now got stuck at about 42%.
Have we stablished what is driving the movement in these polls? Is it firming up of don’t knows towards Labour?
Has there been any real 'movement'? Kantar, having previously produced an outlier towards the Tories, has reverted to mean; ICM, having given Labour better ratings than other pollsters, has perhaps produced an outlier in Labour's direction. There really isn't that much to go on so far. By the end of the week we will know more.
The difference between the Tory lead in ICM and Opinium was about as large as the range in the end-of-campaign polls in 2017. We might not have any idea which is correct until the clock hits ten!
Parsnips are disgusting and who is Yougov surveying who'd know an Eton mess from a smashed-up pavlova?
Parsnips should be thoroughly parboiled then roasted until they are only just recognisable as parsnips and then they are one of god's most perfect creations.
The best way to have parsnips is grated in parsnip and onion bhajis. I've made them for about 30 different people, and they've all said they were the best bhajis they've ever had.
Point of (anecdotal) order: My mum always reminds me that "bhaji" is a curry. The fried things are called "bhajia(s)".
It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long. Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.
Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson. This spells huge trouble for the Tories.
Agreed. Plus the Tories may just be piling up huge majorities in existing seats which would explain the polls and why we end up with a hung Parliament, again. That would, frankly, serve the Tories right.
Roast potatoes looks well placed to win the savoury round, and with good reason.
I think that Christmas pudding is undermarked in the sweet section. I've never eaten an Eton Mess as a matter of principle.
Roast beef got a harsh first round drawing.
The only rival there is Yorkshire Pudding.
I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?
A : Salmon and Parsnips B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!] D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.
I do gammon, roast beef, lamb and chicken. Never had decent turkey so never do it.
This makes me think if Bloomberg runs as an independent he will harm Trump more than the Dem nominee, especially if it turns out to be Warren https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/26/bloomberg-republican-endorsement-2020-073807 This is the kind of guy establishment Republican voters can get behind, the WASPs, the Bushes the kind that makes up maybe 5-10% of the GOP vote. The Dem nominee would easily be able to position between two billionaires as the only person who really understands the average American. Trump would likely take any bait Bloomberg put out about his wealth, and try and get in a pissing contest with someone much richer, whilst Bloomberg will basically run a Romneyesque campaign, with maybe a tad more understanding on social issues and climate change.
For the Greens, that must surely be a fair chunk of their total election spending? If they stood in fewer places they could direct a lot more budget to those. Or do the individual candidates stump up (and so not transferable to other locations if they didn't stand). Does anyone know?
Is there also not the issue of short money? Yes, Greens will lose deposits (that are yes, either stumped up by the candidate or fund raised during the campaign), but for every 200 votes the party gets £33.33 annually.
Thanks, I didn't know that (thought short money was only based on seats). Becomes a much more complicated assessment then.
It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long. Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.
I'll vote for whoever can beat me at a hand of exploding kittens.
I can't see the Tories getting more than 42%, I think that is their absolute ceiling. Labour on the other hand, more Lib Dem with their crap campaign to squeeze.
Roast potatoes looks well placed to win the savoury round, and with good reason.
I think that Christmas pudding is undermarked in the sweet section. I've never eaten an Eton Mess as a matter of principle.
Roast beef got a harsh first round drawing.
The only rival there is Yorkshire Pudding.
I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?
A : Salmon and Parsnips B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!] D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.
I do gammon, roast beef, lamb and chicken. Never had decent turkey so never do it.
100% agreed. Turkey is dry chicken. I'd far rather chicken any day of the week than turkey.
Turkey seems to be one of those things people do because it is what people do rather than because its the best meat to go for. No thanks!
I just posted a politico article, he also funded Scott Brown against Warren in 2012, which will go down with many Dem voters like a bucket of cold sick...
We have a very senior spokesperson for the Jewish community saying that Jeremy Corbyn is unfit to be PM because he tolerates and enables antisemitism. More generally we are told (very credibly) that Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep. People think he's unpatriotic, weak, a bit soft in the head. And then we have just about every senior spokesperson for the large and diverse "head screwed on the right way" community (many millions) saying that Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM because he believes in nothing, lies relentlessly and has no principles, political or personal. And yet no breakthrough for the Lib Dems? How can this be?
It's the toughest election for ages - not only because the main issue is an unsatisfactory remain v and unsatisfactory leave, but also:
Labour - impossible because of racism and economic fairyland
Tory - impossible because of the character and qualities of the leader
LD - impossible because though having the most plausible leader, they are committed to a position of ignoring the referendum
SNP - impossible because after all the Brexit and Irish border debate we now know what a hard border at from Gretna to Berwick would look like and how complex the separation would be.
Brexit - just impossible.
So the election is just like Brexit: there has to be an outcome but there aren't any good ones.
It may just be poor old Jo Swinson. She really needs to ditch the hideous earrings, get better dresses (she has a good figure) and a nicer haircut. Boris needs to learn to tuck his shirt in and not dress like a schoolboy who’s just got out of bed and is late for school. Jeremy has made an effort but his trousers are a bit too long. Their policies are rubbish on the whole. But intellectual argument seems wholly absent these days so we as may well vote on superficial stuff.
Sorry but it doesnt take a genius to work out that the hit is coming on Boris. Just look at other favourability polls over the last week and the narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson. This spells huge trouble for the Tories.
Agreed. Plus the Tories may just be piling up huge majorities in existing seats which would explain the polls and why we end up with a hung Parliament, again. That would, frankly, serve the Tories right.
The crosstabs have been showing the opposite though? Losing votes to the Lib Dems where they can afford to and taking them off Labour where they need them.
Xmas pudding should NOT be 'low tier', it should be much nearer the top. I really do like it a lot. I can't understand why the default answer to "How much?" when it's offered at actual Xmas seems to be "Oh just a sliver". That is not what I say. I always say "A really big piece please". Which I never have any problem whatsoever in finishing (brandy cream and all). Seconds even? No, but not because I couldn't.
Xmas pudding should NOT be 'low tier', it should be much nearer the top. I really do like it a lot. I can't understand why the default answer to "How much?" when it's offered at actual Xmas seems to be "Oh just a sliver". That is not what I say. I always say "A really big piece please". Which I never have any problem whatsoever in finishing (brandy cream and all). Seconds even? No, but not because I couldn't.
I always say "just a big bit".
Victoria sponge is correctly placed. And every day should be National Cake Day.
Parsnips are disgusting and who is Yougov surveying who'd know an Eton mess from a smashed-up pavlova?
Parsnips should be thoroughly parboiled then roasted until they are only just recognisable as parsnips and then they are one of god's most perfect creations.
The best way to have parsnips is grated in parsnip and onion bhajis. I've made them for about 30 different people, and they've all said they were the best bhajis they've ever had.
Point of (anecdotal) order: My mum always reminds me that "bhaji" is a curry. The fried things are called "bhajia(s)".
For the Greens, that must surely be a fair chunk of their total election spending? If they stood in fewer places they could direct a lot more budget to those. Or do the individual candidates stump up (and so not transferable to other locations if they didn't stand). Does anyone know?
I don't know how they're funded, but I do know that (a) 2017 was an exceptionally bad election with the two-party squeeze, (b) standing in a seat, consistently, builds exposure for the party which is important in being taken seriously for council elections, (c) it does get you the free mailshot and contribute towards the PEB, (d) given constituency spending limits there's a limit to how much of the money you could concentrate on target seats, (e) it's an opportunity to engage with the local members of the party, maybe recruit more members and give members something to do - it might be true that the only seat in the south west that the Greens have any chance of winning is in Bristol, but not all the members in Cornwall, Devon, etc will be able to travel to help out, so they may as well campaign for local candidates.
Roast potatoes looks well placed to win the savoury round, and with good reason.
I think that Christmas pudding is undermarked in the sweet section. I've never eaten an Eton Mess as a matter of principle.
Roast beef got a harsh first round drawing.
The only rival there is Yorkshire Pudding.
I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?
A : Salmon and Parsnips B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!] D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.
I do gammon, roast beef, lamb and chicken. Never had decent turkey so never do it.
100% agreed. Turkey is dry chicken. I'd far rather chicken any day of the week than turkey.
Turkey seems to be one of those things people do because it is what people do rather than because its the best meat to go for. No thanks!
Descending to discussing leaders’ dress sense is pretty poor; although it is true that Jo only seems to be able to wear one colour at a time, this is hardly a criterion for deciding how to vote. Although during my many years as a councillor I came across a variety of bizarre reasons why people voted for me, or not.
Thank you! People are imagining poorly roasted, hard lumps instead of them being roasted within an inch of their lives. @Meeks you need to boil some first then almost forget about them in the oven and voilà.
Coat them in Maple Syrup before roasting, fantastic.
Mr. Meeks, roast parsnips are delicious. I also enjoy eccles cakes.
Parsnips are wonderful, but only after the frost gets going. The frost is needed to break down the starch. Parboil to fluff them up then roast. Rotate regularly when roasting, and if roasting potatoes too then put the parsnips in a different dish as they cook more quickly.
100% agreed. Turkey is dry chicken. I'd far rather chicken any day of the week than turkey.
Turkey seems to be one of those things people do because it is what people do rather than because its the best meat to go for. No thanks!
People tend to dry out both turkey and chicken breasts when they roast them. The key to roasting birds is to do it with the breasts down so the juices drip down into them. I tend to also roast my chickens with a thermometer in the middle of the thickest bit of the breast and then cut the breasts out when they reach 75°C. I then wrap the breasts in foil to keep them warm and leave the rest in longer to cook out the sinewy bits in the legs and wings.
Descending to discussing leaders’ dress sense is pretty poor; although it is true that Jo only seems to be able to wear one colour at a time, this is hardly a criterion for deciding how to vote. Although during my many years as a councillor I came across a variety of bizarre reasons why people voted for me, or not.
And were your clothes ever a factor?
Didn’t @NickPalmer say that he had one lady voting for him because he was tall?
Thank you! People are imagining poorly roasted, hard lumps instead of them being roasted within an inch of their lives. @Meeks you need to boil some first then almost forget about them in the oven and voilà.
Coat them in Maple Syrup before roasting, fantastic.
Oooo. I shall be trying that. I like a roast parsnip & carrot mix myself, although I add the carrots 10 minutes after the 'snips have gone in.
So far we've had lots of polls which can tell us the broad shape of HOW MANY votes there are out there for each candidate - but - The most important part of the YouGov MRP should be to...……. broadly confirm where the votes ARE.
Comments
If you’re doing workforce planning, part of the answer to increasing the size of your workforce is retention. In fact, if you only do it by recruitment you won’t have experienced staff to train and manage the new ones.
So in a Gvt internal document you’d talk about an increase of 50k, including some retention measures, and it would be accurate. Not so great as a political message.
Rejecting the corporation tax cut using *Labour* arguments was stupid and entirely the wrong thing to do.
It amounted to an intellectual surrender on everything the Tories have been doing over the last nine years. When you do that you move the battle onto the opponents turf very favourably.
While / if Labour are held at 30%, I think Tories win by 10 (at least) and with it a reasonable majority. It seems to be down to just how shit the Lib Dem campaign is that they are being squeezed by Labour.
An unusual combination but I would have gone with salmon and parsnips from group A.
I wonder what everyone here's picks would be?
A : Salmon and Parsnips
B : Yorkshire Pudding and Roast Beef
C : Roast Chicken and Pigs in Blanket [but you can't have a Christmas meal without gravy so that's harsh!]
D : Roast Pork and Broccoli.
This spells huge trouble for the Tories.
You were only suppose to blow the bloody doors offPropose a second referedum on the deal and some margin sensible centre left policies.This election will confirm it.
1. Undermine the claim of fairness by strongly pointing out the unfairness to other groups.
2. Point out ad nauseam that the courts have ruled against these women. They are doing “Tails I win, heads you lose.”
3. Find some well-known reasonably well-off women in the right age group who would benefit and point out that Labour is prioritising these well off women over police or nurses etc.
Shall I send my fee to CCHQ? I don’t even support this lot so I am doing this for money and because incompetence and bribery annoy me.
https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1199324006203002880?s=20
Descending to discussing leaders’ dress sense is pretty poor; although it is true that Jo only seems to be able to wear one colour at a time, this is hardly a criterion for deciding how to vote.
Although during my many years as a councillor I came across a variety of bizarre reasons why people voted for me, or not.
Tory level in contrast now seems to have now got stuck at about 42%.
That would, frankly, serve the Tories right.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/26/bloomberg-republican-endorsement-2020-073807
This is the kind of guy establishment Republican voters can get behind, the WASPs, the Bushes the kind that makes up maybe 5-10% of the GOP vote. The Dem nominee would easily be able to position between two billionaires as the only person who really understands the average American. Trump would likely take any bait Bloomberg put out about his wealth, and try and get in a pissing contest with someone much richer, whilst Bloomberg will basically run a Romneyesque campaign, with maybe a tad more understanding on social issues and climate change.
Edit: Oops, I misread that as 10am. 10pm is great for me, there could be a need to get some quick constituency bets on.
Turkey seems to be one of those things people do because it is what people do rather than because its the best meat to go for. No thanks!
Labour - impossible because of racism and economic fairyland
Tory - impossible because of the character and qualities of the leader
LD - impossible because though having the most plausible leader, they are committed to a position of ignoring the referendum
SNP - impossible because after all the Brexit and Irish border debate we now know what a hard border at from Gretna to Berwick would look like and how complex the separation would be.
Brexit - just impossible.
So the election is just like Brexit: there has to be an outcome but there aren't any good ones.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1199225021119582208
I think that’s how long it takes them to get the 50k sample.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament
Trouble is last time the wobble became terminal for Theresa's chances!
https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv
And how many of the 5,000 'new' GPs are already GPs???
Can we throw more egg onto the Tories' faces?
https://twitter.com/ABLPoli/status/1198948742294048768
Look at this grammatically perfect sentence that would cause lesser people to crumble
Over the course of a week, data are collected from around 50,000 panellists.
Magnificent.
Duck is the fowl of choice on the Rentool Christmas table.
(With a side dish of pakoras, perhaps)
Only ever had duck once, but it was very good.
Ever since the campaign began, public support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party has been rising
https://unherd.com/2019/11/dont-write-labour-off-yet/
I'd say 43/38 would be my prediction.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/23/lets-talk-landslides/
https://twitter.com/mikecolton/status/884843351479992321
And 7 hours.
And 10 minute.
And then maybe all night long after that.
The most important part of the YouGov MRP should be to...……. broadly confirm where the votes ARE.