Could Labour perking up a bit be almost entirely due to the WASPI bung? People who wouldn't vote Labour unless you paid them, are literally getting paid to vote Labour. It would be interesting to see whether their vote share amongst females has increased, though the spouses could well be just as enthused.
There isn't really much the Tories can do. To attack the claim draws more people's attention to the free money.
All they can do is use the fact they've been conservative with the dosh so far, and come out with their own barrel of pork. Something eye catching to steal the agenda.
What would be most effective? Matching the Waspi money, or trying to open up a new front in a Labour flank? Sadly, I suspect those flanks are so tribal that they can't actually be bribed to vote Tory!
The lunatic Waspi bung should have immediately backfired badly for Labour. That it didn't shows that the Tories have failed to hammer home the fantastical nature of Labour's spending promises.
How do you counter it effectively without reminding 3+ million people they can get £30k for just ticking a box?
I meant they should have already hammered home the message, so that when the Waspi bung appeared it would have been universally met with the derision it deserves, without the Tories needing to do much more.
The Tory campaign has been lazy. They've forgotten how to argue, how to make a case, how to demolish an opponent's case.
How do you argue when the arguments that should be overwhelming such as the Opposition being patently unfit for office count for nothing? If Corbyn being an anti-semite marxist who will bankrupt us all is not enough then what would you suggest is?
Those are assertions rather than arguments. Patiently demolishing each of the manifesto promises, showing their absurdities, the unintended and harmful consequences, asking the questions to which your opponents have no answer, showing the contradictions between what Labour are saying and what Labour are promising are what's needed. Clearly lots of people don't think Labour is unfit for office. So merely saying it achieves nothing. Saying why in terms that make sense to people is what's needed. Shouting "Marxist" does not help. Stating that a tax policy will take away this much money from people on this low income e.g. the marriage tax allowance or that this promise cannot be paid without taxing you etc are what's needed.
Yes, the Tories should go hard on the economy and spend the last two weeks ripping apart Labour’s economic and fiscal case.
Show the bungs to be a complete chimera that we’ll all end up paying for but, stick with them, and real sustainable rewards will come.
Perhaps Javid shouldn't have refused the TV debate with McDonnell.
Nearly evening all I'm left with this thought moving forward - the new Conservative voting coalition seems made up of two significant components - those who voted LEAVE in 2016 and want to "get Brexit done" - translated as make sure we actually do leave. The second group are those either hostile to or terrified of Corbyn who see the only way to stop him is to vote Conservative. That's fine and will probably win Boris a substantial victory next month. For me, the problem is in the longer term - once Brexit is delivered and Corbyn has been assigned to the footnote of history, what then? Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
If Momentum remains dominant & the process to elect the leader is unchanged, what's to stop Labour electing another far left leader?
Where is the Conservative vote IF Labour return to the centre ground or is there an expectation that, at the next election and after 14 years in office, normal service will resume and those pro-Remain Conservatives who cannot support the Party this time will return to the fold?
As long as Corbyn and his fellow travellers are removed from the picture i'd be more than happy for a 97-00 Blair-type Labour government.
And i'm a Tory.
If the price of being rid of the Corbyn cabal was a socialist Government that was at least honest about the need to tax everyone a lot more to get what it wanted to do done, and had both moral leadership and a plausibly-costed manifesto, then I'd take that as well. I'm not at all sure that such an approach would be successful but at least I wouldn't fear complete ruin.
It's the combination of the leadership's crackpot terrorist sympathies, its apparent willingness to print a trillion quid to try to fund its schemes, and the possibility of Parliament-endorsed expropriation of private assets that frightens me.
So our next Queen has negative net ratings, that's monarchy done.
The next King has a +42% net rating, higher than Boris and Corbyn and the next King and Queen after that have net +74% and +72% ratings, that's monarchy secure for another century
It makes no difference. No one believes a word politicians say anymore. After all, if vast swathes of them can lie about carrying out Brexit at the last election why should anyone believe what they say this time around? Basically the failure to accept the public vote in 2016 has broken politics in this country completely. Which is why Corbyn can get away with saying anything he likes and no argument against him will work.
I think that is correct, although Brexit is not the only cause.
The poisonous lies over the Iraq War from New Labour, the pledges over tuition fees from all parties, the failure to hold any one to account over the banking crisis, the "We're all in it together" spiel from Cameron and Clegg as they walk over to multi-million pound jobs. All parties have contributed to a huge corrosion of trust, including those elected on a manifesto to implement Brexit who then spent 3 years doing the opposite.
Corbyn can pretty much offer to bung 30k at all women born between 1950 and 1960, and most people will say (while accepting the money will probably never materialise) that it is no worse than the dishonest actions of other politicians from other parties.
Yep. And Boris' honesty in dealing with that woman (a rare moment of honesty some would say!) has been the instrument of this Labour second wind. No good deed goes unpunished and all that.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Tory electoral bribe soon, and I wouldn't blame them.
LATEST: The Hindu Council has now written to the Chief Rabbi to express their support and to accuse the Labour Party of also becoming anti-Hindu. Major interventions in this election today from pretty much every major faith in Britain. Astonishing. https://t.co/J4fRtvIOLw
That is over Lab criticism of Indian crackdown in Kashmir, nothing to do with this country.
That's a well-designed poster, especially the use of smudgy grey with the black, red, and yellow. How much does it all add up to, compared with the abolition of tuition fees, the introduction of free broadband, and the tightening of rent controls, for the median person who's unlikely to pay much (or any) inheritance tax and who doesn't own a business?
A lot if they are married, drive, have a private pension, have parents who own their own house and have a few savings
What would be most effective? Matching the Waspi money, or trying to open up a new front in a Labour flank? Sadly, I suspect those flanks are so tribal that they can't actually be bribed to vote Tory!
There isn't actually a way to directly counter the Waspi Wonga.
It would help if the press emphasized the wealthy and famous who will be recipients of future youngsters tax money. And human nature is such that those who miss out will be resentful so highlighting the losers on the margins may make the policy slightly less popular.
In truth though making hundreds of billions of pounds of promises for 'free stuff' is incredibly difficult to counter. If it works this time you can be sure it will be used at every election...right up until the bond vigilantes rip the rug from under the country.
And then we end up with a worthless currency and everything that comes with that.
That's a well-designed poster, especially the use of smudgy grey with the black, red, and yellow. How much does it all add up to, compared with the abolition of tuition fees, the introduction of free broadband, and the tightening of rent controls, for the median person who's unlikely to pay much (or any) inheritance tax and who doesn't own a business?
A lot if they are married, drive, have a private pension, have parents who own their own house and have a few savings
As someone who has only been married once I find the idea of additional taxes each time you inflict this on your family not untempting. This has nothing to do with my sister in law remarrying in December. That is just a coincidence.
May I nominate Adam Price of Plaid Cymru for the Manspreader of the Year Award? His intervew with Jo Coburn of the BBC shouldn't be missed. He sat with his feet a yard apart, toes pointed in opposite directions, and kept bouncing on his seat aiming his crotch in Jo's direction. Top work!
There's an award for this? Who knew? Don't tell Boris for goodness sake.
Watch the interview. Price has set a very high bar. Boris couldn't perform at that level. Price practically...well...just watch it... Top stuff. If a bloke sat opposite me on the Tube started with body language like that, I'd be scared.
Adam Price is gay.
I don't see why you would have much to be scared about if he sat opposite to you on the tube.
Um, are you genuinely going with "I will wait to see what the sexuality of the person is before criticising him"?
I can't help but wonder if the particular hatred of Dominic Raab from the left is motivated by his ethnic heritage.
No, he's a dick, same way Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove get criticism.
People seem to hate Raab way more than they hate Gove or Mogg.
I hate Mogg way more. Probably hate Raab the least out of those three actually. He's too dull to really loathe. Gove is a Scottish Tory and therefore an abomination against nature. Mogg is a useful reminder not to send your kids to private school. Raab is just a boring suburban Thatcherite straight out of central casting. All the likeable Tories seem to have left the party TBH. Javid seems all right, if even more boring than Raab, but I'd still never vote for him, obvs.
loathe is a batter word than hate. I don't think you actually hate him anyway, if you do I feel very sorry for you./
No of course not, I was trying to be humorous. I don't hate anyone, to be honest.
I've a lot of time for Aaron Bell, although like me he doesn't appear to post on PB much these days. If I remember correctly, also like me, he joined PB around 15 years ago, in its very early days. He had a very sharp mind for spotting political betting opportunities when the site was still orientated towards such matters, whereas today it isn't, at least to any significant extent.
Comments
Betfair exchange offering 6.8 on Tories between 330-339, and similar for the 320-329 band.
Can you give me >40/1 on a Tory majority of between 2 and 20 (326-335 seats) please?
If Momentum remains dominant & the process to elect the leader is unchanged, what's to stop Labour electing another far left leader?
It's the combination of the leadership's crackpot terrorist sympathies, its apparent willingness to print a trillion quid to try to fund its schemes, and the possibility of Parliament-endorsed expropriation of private assets that frightens me.
New Thread
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Tory electoral bribe soon, and I wouldn't blame them.
It would help if the press emphasized the wealthy and famous who will be recipients of future youngsters tax money. And human nature is such that those who miss out will be resentful so highlighting the losers on the margins may make the policy slightly less popular.
In truth though making hundreds of billions of pounds of promises for 'free stuff' is incredibly difficult to counter. If it works this time you can be sure it will be used at every election...right up until the bond vigilantes rip the rug from under the country.
And then we end up with a worthless currency and everything that comes with that.