Serious question. How does one shift money out of the country? How does one wall it off, safely away from Corbyn’s evil grasp?
On a related note I couldn't help but laugh at the utility companies 'moving' themselves offshore to protect against nationalisation.
How do they reckon that works again? Can't exactly chuck a Nuclear Power station into a wheelbarrow and take it to France.
No but you can sue the UK government in foreign courts for compensation.
The fact that international companies would even remotely contemplate moving legal ownership of assets out of the UK, let alone actually doing it, is truly terrifying - we used to be one of the countries regarded as safest for legal protections.
Yes, it was amazingly unremarked at the time. A horrifying straw in the wind, and no one blinked.
Perhaps you missed the plethora of companies legally domiciling out of the UK in preparation for Brexit?
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Agreed. As I said on here last night there should have been *something* shiny and new in the Tory manifesto. The total lack of any retail offer was a massive anti climax.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
A trifle unfair, they also have all sorts of other proposals to bugger up the economy.
Nigel must, must, must stand down his remaining candidates. It's a risk - maybe those voters will go Labour - but the Tories have to make inroads. The status quo is actually as bad as losing seats for Boris. Another hung parliament will destroy him.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
Boris's ideas seem to be based round undoing his predecessors' cuts. For instance, that figure of 20,000 coppers has a familiar ring to it.
Can anybody explain to me why Monday.com is directly paying for Political adverts?
I can sort of understand why the London tube people would try to find any loop-hole they can to get anti-Borris adds, but not shore why the company would want to get involved?
May be incorrect or exaggerated but it does seem odd to me.
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
I see SeanT is having his usual mid election break down . There is no way the British public will vote commie corbyn into power . They didn’t even vote crappy Ed in , despite “The day the polls turned”
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Agreed. As I said on here last night there should have been *something* shiny and new in the Tory manifesto. The total lack of any retail offer was a massive anti climax.
The Tories over reacted to T May’s mistake.
Yes, I thought the same.
I expect the Tories have a few things held back to announce later because their manifesto was far too safe and they seem to have gone from one extreme to another after the May fiasco .
I said yesterday the Lib Dems were in trouble.They are going to get massively squeezed now as voters realise they have got to make a choice as to whether they want a Marxist as PM or not.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
Nigel must, must, must stand down his remaining candidates. It's a risk - maybe those voters will go Labour - but the Tories have to make inroads. The status quo is actually as bad as losing seats for Boris. Another hung parliament will destroy him.
Not with the FTPA still in force it won't! Here comes 5 years of Boris shearing sheep and cutting the ribbon at village fetes
Last three ICM polls have had Tory leads of 7, 8, 10. They've regularly been bottom of the heap.
One observation. At start of campaign it looked like Lab and Libdem would neatly share anti Tory share hence Tory landslide a la 1980’s. This very much could happen, awfully good value betting op because there is still no way that double digit Lib Dem figure will lend Labour the tactical where they need it, in fact the libdem share will leap as labour give them the tactical where they need it, so labour libdem close on numbers is still the bet to make.
And the big question. What are Opiniyum and ICM doing differently from each other?
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
Well technically its 3 today all showing Lab momentun
Serious question. How does one shift money out of the country? How does one wall it off, safely away from Corbyn’s evil grasp?
Buying foreign shares isn’t exactly difficult.
I know how to do that. But would foreign shares owned by a UK citizen be safe from, say, a Corbynite wealth tax?
The rise in their value as the £ collapses would certainly help cover the cost of any such tax. Surely no upstanding citizen would want to shirk their chance to do their bit for the country.
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
I see SeanT is having his usual mid election break down . There is no way the British public will vote commie corbyn into power . They didn’t even vote crappy Ed in , despite “The day the polls turned”
Relax Boris will get his majority
I’m not him.
If only I were. SeanT was always a model of English sangfroid in turbulent times: stoical, resilient, unflappable; even as everyone else on PB started screaming and eating dung.
Leaders lead. They give guidance on important matters and especially on the most important issue facing the country they hope to become the, er, leader of.
But "Brexit Name Only vs No Brexit" is NOT that important in the grand scheme of things. Not compared to, say, public ownership of vast swathes of the economy. In fact it's a bit of a distraction. Leaders do not pretend to be excited by things that do not excite them. That would be phony.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
Thankyou! When I go to Hargreaves Lansdown should I buy funds that invest in US or Asian stocks or should I buy actual shares in actual companies?
I wouldn't personally buy shares directly in foreign companies unless you know what you are doing and are investing substantial chunks of money. It can involve quite a bit of hassle (depending on the country) to reclaim withholding taxes etc, charges can be high, and also you can get clobbered on the foreign exchange rates when dividends are received.
The very simplest thing you can do is to buy a low-cost world index tracker, such as this one:
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
Absolutely. Fart-end of the reds manifesto after having grandpas face all over the news. A small manifesto bounce.
Nigel must, must, must stand down his remaining candidates. It's a risk - maybe those voters will go Labour - but the Tories have to make inroads. The status quo is actually as bad as losing seats for Boris. Another hung parliament will destroy him.
Can't be done .... the names are on the ballot papers and hundreds of thousands of votes have already been or are about to be cast.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
Well technically its 3 today all showing Lab momentun
One - ICM - shows Lab momentum.
The Welsh poll which is the first in 3 weeks catches up with the national movement that had been reported two weeks ago with Labour and is entirely in line with national swing. No momentum there.
There's no need for the Tories to panic on the basis of a poll with MOE changes. However, so far CCHQ have done far too little to scrutinise some of Labour's proposals which are easy targets. CCHQ should up its game pronto.
Thankyou! When I go to Hargreaves Lansdown should I buy funds that invest in US or Asian stocks or should I buy actual shares in actual companies?
I wouldn't personally buy shares directly in foreign companies unless you know what you are doing and are investing substantial chunks of money. It can involve quite a bit of hassle (depending on the country) to reclaim withholding taxes etc, charges can be high, and also you can get clobbered on the foreign exchange rates when dividends are received.
The very simplest thing you can do is to buy a low-cost world index tracker, such as this one:
Tbh, I'm ok with this ICM. In a week where Labour got a lot of coverage they only closed to within 7 points. With a huge, huge giveaway manifesto. It also shows just how important this election is and hopefully breaks any last remnant of complacency out of the party.
Nigel must, must, must stand down his remaining candidates. It's a risk - maybe those voters will go Labour - but the Tories have to make inroads. The status quo is actually as bad as losing seats for Boris. Another hung parliament will destroy him.
Can't be done .... the names are on the ballot papers and hundreds of thousands of votes have already been or are about to be cast.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
I still think that 2% of previously Boris-supporting Tories deciding this week that he isn’t the best PM on offer is telling us something.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
Boris's ideas seem to be based round undoing his predecessors' cuts. For instance, that figure of 20,000 coppers has a familiar ring to it.
It's sensible enough. The public finances are now recovered to a reasonable extent, so there is some scope to spend more without going mad. After all, compared with Labour there's £58bn available just on one utterly bonkers pledge from Saturday.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
Well technically its 3 today all showing Lab momentun
One - ICM - shows Lab momentum.
The Welsh poll which is the first in 3 weeks catches up with the national movement that had been reported two weeks ago with Labour and is entirely in line with national swing. No momentum there.
Not sure what third one you're talking about?
Survation. There is a definite trend.
My original prediction, weeks ago, was a very small Boris majority. I hope I was right all along.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
I still think that 2% of previously Boris-supporting Tories deciding this week that he isn’t the best PM on offer is telling us something.
Thankyou! When I go to Hargreaves Lansdown should I buy funds that invest in US or Asian stocks or should I buy actual shares in actual companies?
I wouldn't personally buy shares directly in foreign companies unless you know what you are doing and are investing substantial chunks of money. It can involve quite a bit of hassle (depending on the country) to reclaim withholding taxes etc, charges can be high, and also you can get clobbered on the foreign exchange rates when dividends are received.
The very simplest thing you can do is to buy a low-cost world index tracker, such as this one:
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
I said yesterday the Lib Dems were in trouble.They are going to get massively squeezed now as voters realise they have got to make a choice as to whether they want a Marxist as PM or not.
Policies dear boy policies
Yes it's make your mind up time now .Remainer Tories will come back to the Tory fold and left wing Lib Dems will ago Labour.Sell LD seats.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
I still think that 2% of previously Boris-supporting Tories deciding this week that he isn’t the best PM on offer is telling us something.
That you get all short of nonsense from polls.
Anything measuring 2% or less is meaningless.
0% before to 2% after strikes me as potentially meaningful.
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
Liberal Democrats @LibDems · 2h The #VentYourRent campaign clearly highlights the national housing crisis we’re facing.
Liberal Democrats will tackle rogue landlords and provide government-backed tenancy deposit loans for all first-time renters under 30.
If so responses not great this is my favourite
Fucking joke this. I don’t want a loan to give my landlord more money, I want the mould in my room fixed so I can sleep in it without getting a lung infection
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
Well technically its 3 today all showing Lab momentun
One - ICM - shows Lab momentum.
The Welsh poll which is the first in 3 weeks catches up with the national movement that had been reported two weeks ago with Labour and is entirely in line with national swing. No momentum there.
Not sure what third one you're talking about?
Survation. There is a definite trend.
My original prediction, weeks ago, was a very small Boris majority. I hope I was right all along.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
Didn’t say the polls did. I was expressing my opinion on the ‘meh’ manifesto.
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
Absolutely. Fart-end of the reds manifesto after having grandpas face all over the news. A small manifesto bounce.
A small Manifesto with no policies bounce anytime now
Thankyou! When I go to Hargreaves Lansdown should I buy funds that invest in US or Asian stocks or should I buy actual shares in actual companies?
I wouldn't personally buy shares directly in foreign companies unless you know what you are doing and are investing substantial chunks of money. It can involve quite a bit of hassle (depending on the country) to reclaim withholding taxes etc, charges can be high, and also you can get clobbered on the foreign exchange rates when dividends are received.
The very simplest thing you can do is to buy a low-cost world index tracker, such as this one:
That's equivalent to an allocation of about 60% US and the rest spread around the world - Japan, Europe and elsewhere.
You can then adjust the weightings if you wish by buying funds specialising in specific areas or sectors.
Thanks mate.
I suggest it would be rash to buy into a fund so heavily weighted toward the US - probably the most overvalued major market in the world right now
I’m gonna diversify. I don’t want to make a killing. I just want to protect my hard earned money from the commies. I’ve already paid squillions in tax.
If I were Labour I’d go hard on the 2 billion for potholes v 1 billion for child care.
What an insult to parents who really need more help with childcare .
Why is that an insult?
I drive my daughter to her nursery - I want her to go to a nursery and I don't want to hit a pothole while taking her there.
Potholes of course are a problem but what message does it send when you’re willing to put more into them than childcare for parents .
Couldn’t the Tories had found more for childcare ?
I think the message it sends is that roads are more expensive to maintain than childcare. No problem there.
Does childcare need more? Spending money for spending's sake is a bad thing, don't you understand that?
Sorry but how do you think this looks in terms of priorities .
You won’t have to worry about hitting a pothole on the way to the nursery if there isn’t a nursery to go to ! The Tory manifesto was a non event and then its claim on new nurses unraveled within hours .
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
I see SeanT is having his usual mid election break down . There is no way the British public will vote commie corbyn into power . They didn’t even vote crappy Ed in , despite “The day the polls turned”
Relax Boris will get his majority
Whereabouts does SeanT post these days? I had rather hoped against hope that he might put in the odd occasional guest appearance on PB.com during this campaign ... always assuming he's not currently banned.
I just found out from my brother that him and his wife are now seriously looking at property abroad and working out the economics of emigrating. They are more religious than me so get exposed to more anti-Semitism, but it is seriously depressing. Say they don't feel truly safe long term in the UK.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
Well technically its 3 today all showing Lab momentun
One - ICM - shows Lab momentum.
The Welsh poll which is the first in 3 weeks catches up with the national movement that had been reported two weeks ago with Labour and is entirely in line with national swing. No momentum there.
Not sure what third one you're talking about?
Survation. There is a definite trend.
My original prediction, weeks ago, was a very small Boris majority. I hope I was right all along.
Survation was yesterday and showed an 11% Tory lead. I'll take that. It compares to an 8% Tory lead that Survation had before the Commons voted for an election.
Thankyou! When I go to Hargreaves Lansdown should I buy funds that invest in US or Asian stocks or should I buy actual shares in actual companies?
I wouldn't personally buy shares directly in foreign companies unless you know what you are doing and are investing substantial chunks of money. It can involve quite a bit of hassle (depending on the country) to reclaim withholding taxes etc, charges can be high, and also you can get clobbered on the foreign exchange rates when dividends are received.
The very simplest thing you can do is to buy a low-cost world index tracker, such as this one:
That's equivalent to an allocation of about 60% US and the rest spread around the world - Japan, Europe and elsewhere.
You can then adjust the weightings if you wish by buying funds specialising in specific areas or sectors.
Thanks mate.
I suggest it would be rash to buy into a fund so heavily weighted toward the US - probably the most overvalued major market in the world right now
I’m gonna diversify. I don’t want to make a killing. I just want to protect my hard earned money from the commies. I’ve already paid squillions in tax.
What about the argument, it’s alll your money only if you believe there is no such thing as society, as community, as nation state with patriots inside, recognising where the young need to be properly educated, the old and frail properly cared for, and everyone given the best training and jobs? If you don’t recognise that it’s not your money, That's its wrong for the monarch to rule over two nations: the rich and the undeserving poor, then the guillotine is the right place for you isn’t it?
There's no need for the Tories to panic on the basis of a poll with MOE changes. However, so far CCHQ have done far too little to scrutinise some of Labour's proposals which are easy targets. CCHQ should up its game pronto.
That is a very good point. The same happened in 2017, because nobody took Labour's manifesto seriously. I've not really heard any proper scrutiny and criticism of Labour's manifeso from the Tories, nor indeed from the media. Now, if the polls do start tightening, I would expect that to change consdierably. Let's be honest here, as a blueprint for the economy, Labour's manifesto is catastrophic, and I think even Labour voters would privately have some sympathy with that viewpoint.
But still. As over reactions go on the back of a single nationwide poll, it's really revealing. If the Tories start panicking nationally, then they will do Labour's job for them. A loss of confidence is fatal - just ask Theresa may.
One interesting feature even in polls which had the Tories well ahead was Johnson’s falling personal ratings . At some point that’s going to hurt the Tory numbers and banging on about Get Brexit Done might also be grating and might lead some of the public to think he has nothing to offer but Brexit .
If I were Labour I’d go hard on the 2 billion for potholes v 1 billion for child care.
What an insult to parents who really need more help with childcare .
Why is that an insult?
I drive my daughter to her nursery - I want her to go to a nursery and I don't want to hit a pothole while taking her there.
Potholes of course are a problem but what message does it send when you’re willing to put more into them than childcare for parents .
Couldn’t the Tories had found more for childcare ?
I think the message it sends is that roads are more expensive to maintain than childcare. No problem there.
Does childcare need more? Spending money for spending's sake is a bad thing, don't you understand that?
Sorry but how do you think this looks in terms of priorities .
You won’t have to worry about hitting a pothole on the way to the nursery if there isn’t a nursery to go to ! The Tory manifesto was a non event and then its claim on new nurses unraveled within hours .
I think it looks like they're dealing with issues.
And why would there be no nursery with a billion pounds spent on them? Only lunatics who think there should be no roads would object to spending to repair potholes . . .
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
I see SeanT is having his usual mid election break down . There is no way the British public will vote commie corbyn into power . They didn’t even vote crappy Ed in , despite “The day the polls turned”
Relax Boris will get his majority
Whereabouts does SeanT post these days? I had rather hoped against hope that he might put in the odd occasional guest appearance on PB.com during this campaign ... always assuming he's not currently banned.
He vanished without a trace. No one's heard a word from him for many months.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
I agree Labours worst policy by miles IMO
One of the most poplar on the doorstep is Lab ruling out increase in Pension age beyond 66 Especially when you show voters IDS think tank want it raised to 75
I’m also thinking (not from this ICM poll) that Conservative manifesto might have been another mistake. I saw the headlines, and thought “meh” and I should be their demographic. Felt light and devoid of anything eye-catching. Where are the big ideas to solve long standing important issues that people care about? Ok, nurses, but what about GPs?. They have played too safe. I don’t like Corbyn’s offering either, but nature abhors a vacuum....so free broad band and Waspi fill the void.
The Con manfesto was only unveiled a few hours ago. I doubt its had any impact on these polls.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
I still think that 2% of previously Boris-supporting Tories deciding this week that he isn’t the best PM on offer is telling us something.
That you get all short of nonsense from polls.
Anything measuring 2% or less is meaningless.
0% before to 2% after strikes me as potentially meaningful.
3% is MOE. And that's before you consider the people who respond with any nonsense as a joke. 2% is not statistically significant.
Warning: Don't die owning shares directly in a US company.
If you do it is nigh on impossible for the executors to sell and recover the money.
I spent 3 years trying - eventually the deceased got classed as a missing shareholder, the State of Delaware took over the shares and I got the money from the State of Delaware.
It's an unbelievable process requiring a medallion stamp - and it is just about impossible to get one.
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Tbh, I'm ok with this ICM. In a week where Labour got a lot of coverage they only closed to within 7 points. With a huge, huge giveaway manifesto. It also shows just how important this election is and hopefully breaks any last remnant of complacency out of the party.
This doesn't feel like 2017. It feels like 2015.
It feels like 1983 and don't get like football commentators. Labour is not "within" 7 points of the Tories, it is 7 points behind. "Within" means less or fewer i.e. 6 or less.
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
When the Tories got so obsessed with Brexit, it is a shame they weren’t able to think a few more moves ahead.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
Well technically its 3 today all showing Lab momentun
One - ICM - shows Lab momentum.
The Welsh poll which is the first in 3 weeks catches up with the national movement that had been reported two weeks ago with Labour and is entirely in line with national swing. No momentum there.
Not sure what third one you're talking about?
Survation. There is a definite trend.
My original prediction, weeks ago, was a very small Boris majority. I hope I was right all along.
Survation was yesterday and showed an 11% Tory lead. I'll take that. It compares to an 8% Tory lead that Survation had before the Commons voted for an election.
They changed Methodology it went up to 14% lead on new Methodology its back down to 11% Single figures Survation nailed on next week.
Warning: Don't die owning shares directly in a US company.
If you do it is nigh on impossible for the executors to sell and recover the money.
I spent 3 years trying - eventually the deceased got classed as a missing shareholder, the State of Delaware took over the shares and I got the money from the State of Delaware.
It's an unbelievable process requiring a medallion stamp - and it is just about impossible to get one.
Given Sean’s lifestyle, that is certainly a valid consideration
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Warning: Don't die owning shares directly in a US company.
If you do it is nigh on impossible for the executors to sell and recover the money.
I spent 3 years trying - eventually the deceased got classed as a missing shareholder, the State of Delaware took over the shares and I got the money from the State of Delaware.
It's an unbelievable process requiring a medallion stamp - and it is just about impossible to get one.
Does this apply to shares held via a platform e.g. H&L?
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
Now, you see, everyone told me I was talking nonsense but I was right. The march of the robots has started in earnest. All Corbyn had to do is repeat "NHS" often enough and the homing beacons started to activate. He's going to be Prime Minister by Christmas. Watch.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
I agree Labours worst policy by miles IMO
One of the most poplar on the doorstep is Lab ruling out increase in Pension age beyond 66 Especially when you show voters IDS think tank want it raised to 75
No bribes for keep Corbyn outers its a disgrace
Don’t we need higher pension age for good reason though? Is there such thing as good policy that throws reasoning to the wind?
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
I see SeanT is having his usual mid election break down . There is no way the British public will vote commie corbyn into power . They didn’t even vote crappy Ed in , despite “The day the polls turned”
Relax Boris will get his majority
Whereabouts does SeanT post these days? I had rather hoped against hope that he might put in the odd occasional guest appearance on PB.com during this campaign ... always assuming he's not currently banned.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Yes, but how much are you prepared to pay for it?
I’m expecting the wealth tax on Sean to pay for it, silly.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Simple put a X in the right box and you will receive free superfast Broadband
Amusing Tory launch venue yesterday had no Broadband.
Tories repeating all same basic errors as 2017.
Number one error terrible Manifesto no policies people support
I assume this is accurate but understood letter from ex Esher MP Ian Taylor to the constituency voters telling voters to put their X for the Lib Dem!
I don't think there has been a letter (at least not received by me yet).The voters of Esher and Walton are not going to vote LD if faced with a Corbyn Government.Taylor always was a berk.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
That is my fear as well. It could turn out to be the most effective but also deeply immoral and irresponsible policy pledge in modern UK history. Attacking it is tricky as a significant part of the electorate (and political class) are innumerate. I would suggest the following: 1. Give some commitment to help the poorest worst affected once all the legal process is complete. 2. Compare the sums with other potential expenditure so the scale is made as clear as possible. 3. Unfair to majority of taxpayers and saddling young with debt. 4. Unfair to men. 5. LDs need to really weigh in on this!
The trouble is that the size of bribe is huge, Chavez has nothing on these bastards.
Unfortunately any tightening of the polls means my preferred Lib Dem vote may be a luxury I don't have.
Nigel must, must, must stand down his remaining candidates. It's a risk - maybe those voters will go Labour - but the Tories have to make inroads. The status quo is actually as bad as losing seats for Boris. Another hung parliament will destroy him.
Not with the FTPA still in force it won't! Here comes 5 years of Boris shearing sheep and cutting the ribbon at village fetes
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
Now, you see, everyone told me I was talking nonsense but I was right. The march of the robots has started in earnest. All Corbyn had to do is repeat "NHS" often enough and the homing beacons started to activate. He's going to be Prime Minister by Christmas. Watch.
I fear you’re right.
Fuck this, I’m going down to the pool to have a beer
There's no need for the Tories to panic on the basis of a poll with MOE changes. However, so far CCHQ have done far too little to scrutinise some of Labour's proposals which are easy targets. CCHQ should up its game pronto.
That is a very good point. The same happened in 2017, because nobody took Labour's manifesto seriously. I've not really heard any proper scrutiny and criticism of Labour's manifeso from the Tories, nor indeed from the media. Now, if the polls do start tightening, I would expect that to change consdierably. Let's be honest here, as a blueprint for the economy, Labour's manifesto is catastrophic, and I think even Labour voters would privately have some sympathy with that viewpoint.
But still. As over reactions go on the back of a single nationwide poll, it's really revealing. If the Tories start panicking nationally, then they will do Labour's job for them. A loss of confidence is fatal - just ask Theresa may.
**HOLD YOUR FUCKING NERVE, TORIES**
Mind you some bits of the Tory attack just doesn’t work like previous, you realise how embarrassingly ludicrous “strong and stable with Boris, chaos and bankruptcy with labour” sounds from a party whose flagship policy is brexit that was only got over the line by that whopping lie on the side of their leave campaign bus?
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
Now, you see, everyone told me I was talking nonsense but I was right. The march of the robots has started in earnest. All Corbyn had to do is repeat "NHS" often enough and the homing beacons started to activate. He's going to be Prime Minister by Christmas. Watch.
Do you not think you’re over reacting a bit. Labour have a mountain to climb.
One interesting feature even in polls which had the Tories well ahead was Johnson’s falling personal ratings . At some point that’s going to hurt the Tory numbers and banging on about Get Brexit Done might also be grating and might lead some of the public to think he has nothing to offer but Brexit .
He doesn't. Brexit is a lie from beginning to end and it is therefore a metaphor for Boris Johnson. His only relative saving grace is that he is not Jeremy Corbyn.
Comments
Thankyou! When I go to Hargreaves Lansdown should I buy funds that invest in US or Asian stocks or should I buy actual shares in actual companies?
What an insult to parents who really need more help with childcare .
Cucumber.
The Welsh changes look more decisive, and it seems to be visceral support for Labour feeding through. Yes, I thought the same.
https://order-order.com/2019/11/25/tfl-allows-raft-anti-boris-ads-tech-startup/#disqus_thread
Can anybody explain to me why Monday.com is directly paying for Political adverts?
I can sort of understand why the London tube people would try to find any loop-hole they can to get anti-Borris adds, but not shore why the company would want to get involved?
May be incorrect or exaggerated but it does seem odd to me.
Relax Boris will get his majority
And the big question. What are Opiniyum and ICM doing differently from each other?
I drive my daughter to her nursery - I want her to go to a nursery and I don't want to hit a pothole while taking her there.
If only I were. SeanT was always a model of English sangfroid in turbulent times: stoical, resilient, unflappable; even as everyone else on PB started screaming and eating dung.
Main drivers are last weeks TV debates and the Labour manifesto.
Time to get them out .
Postal votes are going in now.
The very simplest thing you can do is to buy a low-cost world index tracker, such as this one:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-iii-plc-core-msci-world-acc
That's equivalent to an allocation of about 60% US and the rest spread around the world - Japan, Europe and elsewhere.
You can then adjust the weightings if you wish by buying funds specialising in specific areas or sectors.
Couldn’t the Tories had found more for childcare ?
The Welsh poll which is the first in 3 weeks catches up with the national movement that had been reported two weeks ago with Labour and is entirely in line with national swing. No momentum there.
Not sure what third one you're talking about?
Buy Japan. One undervalued part of the world where companies are cash rich and debt poor.
This doesn't feel like 2017. It feels like 2015.
I still think that 2% of previously Boris-supporting Tories deciding this week that he isn’t the best PM on offer is telling us something.
Does childcare need more? Spending money for spending's sake is a bad thing, don't you understand that?
My original prediction, weeks ago, was a very small Boris majority. I hope I was right all along.
Anything measuring 2% or less is meaningless.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Liberal Democrats
@LibDems
· 2h
The #VentYourRent campaign clearly highlights the national housing crisis we’re facing.
Liberal Democrats will tackle rogue landlords and provide government-backed tenancy deposit loans for all first-time renters under 30.
If so responses not great this is my favourite
Fucking joke this. I don’t want a loan to give my landlord more money, I want the mould in my room fixed so I can sleep in it without getting a lung infection
Let's hope that, whoever wins the election, we'll have fewer kids asking for a home and enough to eat for Christmas.
You won’t have to worry about hitting a pothole on the way to the nursery if there isn’t a nursery to go to ! The Tory manifesto was a non event and then its claim on new nurses unraveled within hours .
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1199021338716987392
The UUP might take a seat or two. They probably won't though.
But still. As over reactions go on the back of a single nationwide poll, it's really revealing. If the Tories start panicking nationally, then they will do Labour's job for them. A loss of confidence is fatal - just ask Theresa may.
**HOLD YOUR FUCKING NERVE, TORIES**
And why would there be no nursery with a billion pounds spent on them? Only lunatics who think there should be no roads would object to spending to repair potholes . . .
One of the most poplar on the doorstep is Lab ruling out increase in Pension age beyond 66 Especially when you show voters IDS think tank want it raised to 75
No bribes for keep Corbyn outers its a disgrace
If you do it is nigh on impossible for the executors to sell and recover the money.
I spent 3 years trying - eventually the deceased got classed as a missing shareholder, the State of Delaware took over the shares and I got the money from the State of Delaware.
It's an unbelievable process requiring a medallion stamp - and it is just about impossible to get one.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
15,000 to 31,000 pounds or getting Brexit done !
Amusing Tory launch venue yesterday had no Broadband.
Tories repeating all same basic errors as 2017.
Number one error terrible Manifesto no policies people support
They can’t help it. Election. Sheep. Red rosette.
They’d vote Labour even if they pledged to billet people in their homes, hand out vegan rations, and nationalise their gran.
Baaaaaaaaaaa.
1. Give some commitment to help the poorest worst affected once all the legal process is complete.
2. Compare the sums with other potential expenditure so the scale is made as clear as possible.
3. Unfair to majority of taxpayers and saddling young with debt.
4. Unfair to men.
5. LDs need to really weigh in on this!
The trouble is that the size of bribe is huge, Chavez has nothing on these bastards.
Unfortunately any tightening of the polls means my preferred Lib Dem vote may be a luxury I don't have.
Fuck this, I’m going down to the pool to have a beer
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10411715/waspi-women-labour-compensation/
So presumably The Sun thinks it readership is sympathetic. If so then Jezza's played a blinder.