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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to the first leaders’ TV debate of GE2019 – without a r

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    It'll make for a good picture, but forcing the pair to shake hands was just silliness.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Barnesian said:

    I suspect he will agree a free vote for Labour MPs and keep above the fray himself. That's exactly what Wilson did in 1975.

    "In a 1975 pamphlet Prime Minister Harold Wilson said: "I ask you to use your vote. For it is your vote that will now decide. The Government will accept your verdict."[3] The pamphlet also said: "Now the time has come for you to decide. The Government will accept your decision — whichever way it goes.""

    Plus there wasn't a general election in 1975 so Wilson had the luxury of playing the statesman. He didn't have to convince anyone he was a leader because he was Prime Minister already.

    We now have a general election and I think people are looking for the leadership necessary to become Prime Minister.
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63
    TOPPING said:

    So why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    Is your name "Topping" or "Trolling"? :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,388
    edited November 2019
    Well my non political guests reckoned Corbyn walked it. I didn't watch. They were surprised.

    I'm just mad about Swinson.......
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    And a lot on here thought Boris would tank . And he didn't. Boris went into this the underdog in expectation - not Corbyn.

    Corbyn did these debates last time. He needed to knock it out of the park. He didn't.
    This sounds like "damage limitation speak"
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Betfair unmoved. No news is good news.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Roger said:

    Well my non political guests reckoned Corbyn walked it. I didn't watch. They were surprised. i think they thought he had horns.

    I'm just mad about Swinson.......

    Does she give you the horn?
  • kle4 said:

    It'll make for a good picture, but forcing the pair to shake hands was just silliness.

    Especially in the middle of the debate. Leaders shake hands at the start/end of the debate not during it.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    eristdoof said:

    This sounds like "damage limitation speak"
    Nope. Boris won after all. :wink:
  • Roger said:

    Well my non political guests reckoned Corbyn walked it. I didn't watch. They were surprised. i think they thought he had horns.

    I'm just mad about Swinson.......

    This is the point I am trying to make.

    It's not about pleasing us, it's about pleasing the public.

    They on average hate Corbyn, so for him to not be dire will be better than they expected.

    I think this will mean a lot more than people think.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    dr_spyn said:
    paging @bigjohnowls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    I do think Corbyn is playing up his softly spoken thing on 'serious' questions, and it is a little phony, but he can still at least modulate his tone better than Boris can.
  • RobD said:

    Do they have wifi in Antarctica? :p
    Yes - I used it and it was great
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Arthur said:

    Is your name "Topping" or "Trolling"? :)
    Relentless Seeker of the Truthing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    51/49

    Only beating Corbyn by 2 points? Boris should resign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Especially in the middle of the debate. Leaders shake hands at the start/end of the debate not during it.
    Hang on, I'm getting deja vu - did the same thing happen in the Tories' leaders debate? I repeat myself a lot, but I feel like I've said precisely the same thing here.
  • The big result of the night: Wales qualify for the European Championships.

    The rest is noise.

    Da iawn
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    maaarsh said:

    Betfair unmoved. No news is good news.

    Yes. refreshing it like crazy but nothing's moved. Yet, I suppose.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    RobD said:

    I should have also mentioned that Johnson's rating has improved from -18 to +2 between mid September 2019 and late October 2019
    Getting marginal movement on Brexit after a year of stalemate will do that,
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Yes - I used it and it was great
    Well someone page him quick - the entertainment is second to none.
  • Yes - I used it and it was great
    Probably not too many penguins streaming Netflix to hog the bandwidth down there.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,830
    Roger said:

    Well my non political guests reckoned Corbyn walked it. I didn't watch. They were surprised.

    I'm just mad about Swinson.......


    What are you mad about? That she's still not taken your advice and changed her hair doo? ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,426
    dr_spyn said:
    This will be the ongoing fall-out from the debate. Corbyn lying about anti-semitism in Labour.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453
    TOPPING said:

    So why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    I think the clue's in the word 'referendum' !

    What would the question be? What immediate change could result?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,057

    I'm surprised given it was Boris's obvious line and the media's line for months that Corbyn didn't have a clear answer on the Brexit question in what is reasonably by many being called The Brexit Election.

    He needs to get an actual answer PDQ.

    No he doesn't. It only annoys Tories and they don't matter anyway to him.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044

    While out canvassing it’s the most repeated line back from those saying they’ll vote conservative.
    It’s like Borg drones connected to the Queen ! Seriously though it’s beginning to grate!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Roger said:

    Well my non political guests reckoned Corbyn walked it. I didn't watch. They were surprised.

    I'm just mad about Swinson.......

    You had non-political guests and you decided all to watch the debate over a private VPN on ITV.com?

    Oh Roger...cinquante-cinq not doing its happy hour on lager and black this evening?
  • Corbyn being OK means he's better than most of the public think he is, which is a win for him - I think that is how he will perceive it.

    It'll also give the Labour members a kickstart they need.

    I just wasn't convinced by Johnson on anything other than on Brexit - which he won on. But it was tiring by the end.

    Corbyn is so heavily demonised in the media that when he appears live on programmes like tonite he can hardly help but appear better than most people expect.

    He is in fact quite good in that format. Boris is better in short snappy spells, or giving speeches. Less so in open debate.

    I would expect Corbyn's dire personal rating to improve, but otherwise the dial won't move much.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    They are both fucking useless, incompetent fools if you vote for either then more fool you. They have no solutions no policies and no foture
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited November 2019

    This will be the ongoing fall-out from the debate. Corbyn lying about anti-semitism in Labour.
    Johnson lying about everything from highest Corporation tax in Europe to dying in a ditch to how many kids he has to lying to his wife to everything else he ever says
  • So my verdict on the evening.

    The Tories think Johnson walked all over Corbyn.
    Labour think Corbyn is the clear winner.
    Roger apparently has friends.

    I am pretty sure none of these things are realistic.

    I watched MasterChef instead and thought the judges got it just right.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    DavidL said:

    Possibly. I thought he didn’t look quite right. His right eye was funny and his lens on that side looked blurred. His glasses were sitting at an odd angle as well. It crossed my mind he had had a mild stroke. But he spoke as well as he normally does.
    Bell's Palsy?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,314

    Probably not too many penguins streaming Netflix to hog the bandwidth down there.
    When the get free WiFi from Corbyn though, those bastards will be all over Pornhub looking for hot chicks.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Omnium said:

    I think the clue's in the word 'referendum' !

    What would the question be? What immediate change could result?

    Should we rule out any private involvement in the NHS.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    I got bored after 5 minutes so watched the first episode of Porterhouse Blue on Youtube. The point where Sir Godber and the Dean clashed seemed strangely reminiscent of the debate. I assume the scene in a future episode, where Zipser demolishes the college with inflated condoms, will bring back even more memories of Boris.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,264
    Been out all evening. What's the verdict from the debate - no score draw?
  • Barnesian said:

    No he doesn't. It only annoys Tories and they don't matter anyway to him.
    I think you might find there's Remainers out there annoyed at Corbyn's prevarication too!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    It’s like Borg drones connected to the Queen ! Seriously though it’s beginning to grate!
    Precisely why we need to get Brexit done so you won't have to hear the words "get Brexit done" again.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    ydoethur said:

    When the get free WiFi from Corbyn though, those bastards will be all over Pornhub looking for hot chicks.
    :smiley::smiley::smiley:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,057
    TOPPING said:

    So why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    Why? Non sequitur.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Roger said:

    Well my non political guests reckoned Corbyn walked it. I didn't watch. They were surprised.

    I'm just mad about Swinson.......

    Your guests asked to watch something they arent interested in on telly while you did something else?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,830
    edited November 2019

    Been out all evening. What's the verdict from the debate - no score draw?

    Boris just edged it but it's a win for Jezza apparently :D
  • "Each side talks their man up" shock on PB

    Meanwhile, the world continues to turn.....
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    Johnson lying about everything
    There's nothing new in that. we can tell exactly when he's lying anyway, his lips will be moving
  • Probably not too many penguins streaming Netflix to hog the bandwidth down there.
    Isn't Pingu popular in such parts?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    nico67 said:

    It’s like Borg drones connected to the Queen ! Seriously though it’s beginning to grate!
    They'll make a cock up in their manifesto launch for people to talk about soon.

    Corbyn is so heavily demonised in the media that when he appears live on programmes like tonite he can hardly help but appear better than most people expect.

    He is in fact quite good in that format. Boris is better in short snappy spells, or giving speeches. Less so in open debate.

    I would expect Corbyn's dire personal rating to improve, but otherwise the dial won't move much.
    And lots of people think similarly, so I think the idea everyone expected Boris to trounce Corbyn, or even for Corbyn to see an enormous jump in the Labour share, needs to be discarded, as there's plenty of nuanced reactions to the impact. Even Betfair have not overreacted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Barnesian said:

    Why? Non sequitur.
    It's an issue of national importance and Jeremy has a very strong view. Why shouldn't he be neutral? Leave it to the people to decide?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044
    edited November 2019



    Precisely why we need to get Brexit done so you won't have to hear the words get Brexit done again.
    Lmao ! Yes I hate Brexit but if the slogan gets put out of its misery it will be relief !
  • Getting an STD is probably more popular than Corbyn.
    Even Hitler might beat Corbyn.
  • So my verdict on the evening.

    The Tories think Johnson walked all over Corbyn.
    Labour think Corbyn is the clear winner.
    Roger apparently has friends.

    I am pretty sure none of these things are realistic.

    I watched MasterChef instead and thought the judges got it just right.

    LOL
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Tbh it was a bore draw. Nothing in it made you want to change your mind
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited November 2019

    "Each side talks their man up" shock on PB

    Meanwhile, the world continues to turn.....

    Who the people like Topping saying they both did ok talking up? Or Wooliedyed saying it was a bore draw? And so on. The idea people are only talking up their sides isn't borne out. Some are.
  • Arthur said:

    Is your name "Topping" or "Trolling"? :)
    Oh, the wit. There's no shortage of trolls on here. Topping ain't one.
  • What a waste of time that was. I doubt many voters are any the wiser on the issues.

    An in-depth grilling from Andrew Neil would have been far more worthwhile.
  • Been out all evening. What's the verdict from the debate - no score draw?

    Pretty much.. all lines well rehearsed now
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Even Hitler might beat Corbyn.

    Even Hitler might beat Corbyn.
    Careful. :wink:
  • Debate was OK - no real cock-ups by either side, but nothing new either.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    So my verdict on the evening.

    The Tories think Johnson walked all over Corbyn.
    Labour think Corbyn is the clear winner.
    Roger apparently has friends.

    I am pretty sure none of these things are realistic.

    I watched MasterChef instead and thought the judges got it just right.

    Blimey did someone actually cook a piece of lamb properly rather than leaving it bloody raw like they usually do? ( I’m watching a recording now having turned over from Wales)
  • What a waste of time that was. I doubt many voters are any the wiser on the issues.

    An in-depth grilling from Andrew Neil would have been far more worthwhile.

    Definitely.

    The format was awful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Been out all evening. What's the verdict from the debate - no score draw?

    Snap polls say dead heat, therefore yes, though personally I'd edge it to Corbyn as a reasonable performance with no disaster helps him more.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    What a waste of time that was. I doubt many voters are any the wiser on the issues.

    An in-depth grilling from Andrew Neil would have been far more worthwhile.

    I think that the question time format, if long enough for each leader, will be much more informative.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,097
    Got our polling cards yesterday. Feels real now.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    kle4 said:

    The burdens we bear. Just to talk myself up, I've also read and summarised the Green Party Manifesto across 4 posts earlier so no one else has to as well.
    Thanks for that.
  • kle4 said:

    They'll make a cock up in their manifesto launch for people to talk about soon. And lots of people think similarly, so I think the idea everyone expected Boris to trounce Corbyn, or even for Corbyn to see an enormous jump in the Labour share, needs to be discarded, as there's plenty of nuanced reactions to the impact. Even Betfair have not overreacted.
    Betfair is the most honest guide in this kind of situation.

    NOM drifted down during the day and has more or less held its position since the show. So the punters are saying more or less a draw.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    Oh, the wit. There's no shortage of trolls on here. Topping ain't one.
    :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Definitely.

    The format was awful.
    It needed more time. No really, it was not great viewing, but 1 hour was not enough for them to get into things properly, they were always being moved on.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Even Hitler might beat Corbyn.
    51/49 according to YG
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,264
    kle4 said:

    Snap polls say dead heat, therefore yes, though personally I'd edge it to Corbyn as a reasonable performance with no disaster helps him more.
    Cheers - and to the others who responded with slightly differing flavours of the same conclusion.
  • Boris Johnson did not come across as a leader tonight.He seemed unprepared and lacking in substance.The audience laughed at him on more than one occasion.His whole demeanour revealed a contemptuous attitude towards the audience.

    Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand was surprisingly good and statesmanlike.
  • Got our polling cards yesterday. Feels real now.

    "Shit just got real!" :)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Your guests asked to watch something they arent interested in on telly while you did something else?
    If I was round at Roger's house I'd also probably pick boring tv over no tv.
  • Result binding on all future Governments.
    Sounds good to me. I’m not sure Labour would like it though, as it would take away their most used election line.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    Boris Johnson did not come across as a leader tonight.He seemed unprepared and lacking in substance.The audience laughed at him on more than one occasion.His whole demeanour revealed a contemptuous attitude towards the audience.

    Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand was surprisingly good and statesmanlike.

    and also got laughed at

    more than once.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    2015 debate between Miliband and Cameron:

    "....while a YouGov "Instant Reaction" survey found 51% for Cameron and 49% for Miliband. A subsequent regular YouGov poll found that among undecided voters, 49% thought Milband had done best to 35% for Cameron. The Centre for the Analysis of Social Media concluded the social media reaction was more favourable towards Miliband. Newsnight's political editor called Miliband the winner."

    Wonder how that ended up?

  • FWIW literally nobody I have spoken to who is not at least a member of a political party said they would watch it. Many didn’t even know it was on. I suspect the viewing figures will be in the tank and I would suspect that favours the leader in the polls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,314
    edited November 2019

    51/49 according to YG
    Why would YG poll on whether or not Hitler beat Corbyn?

    Even more embarrassingly, given Hitler died (just) before Corbyn was born, how could Corbyn narrowly lose to him?
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    Betfair majority odds unmoved so, basically, job done for Boris tonight
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Boris Johnson did not come across as a leader tonight.He seemed unprepared and lacking in substance.The audience laughed at him on more than one occasion.His whole demeanour revealed a contemptuous attitude towards the audience.

    Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand was surprisingly good and statesmanlike.

    Why did the audience repeatedly laugh at him then?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,453
    TOPPING said:

    Should we rule out any private involvement in the NHS.
    What does that actually mean in practice though?
    I don't think you can draw a line on anything like such a wide-ranging issue.
  • kle4 said:

    Snap polls say dead heat, therefore yes, though personally I'd edge it to Corbyn as a reasonable performance with no disaster helps him more.
    Surely Corbyn would have been hoping for disasters [on Boris's side]. May 2017 had disaster after disaster, at least 3 major memorable disasters which is what helped get him close.

    If these set pieces get ticked off without changing anybodies opinion I think Team Boris will be quietly quite satisfied with that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    dr_spyn said:
    The 130 are suspended which is what Corbyn said.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,097

    Why did the audience repeatedly laugh at him then?
    You’re right. Why did the audience repeatedly laugh at Boris Johnson?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,314

    Why did the audience repeatedly laugh at him then?
    Because they weren’t tribal Labour loyalists.
  • 2015 debate between Miliband and Cameron:

    "....while a YouGov "Instant Reaction" survey found 51% for Cameron and 49% for Miliband. A subsequent regular YouGov poll found that among undecided voters, 49% thought Milband had done best to 35% for Cameron. The Centre for the Analysis of Social Media concluded the social media reaction was more favourable towards Miliband. Newsnight's political editor called Miliband the winner."

    Wonder how that ended up?

    Hold on, there wasn't a head to head in 2015. You can't really compare.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    TOPPING said:

    It's an issue of national importance and Jeremy has a very strong view. Why shouldn't he be neutral? Leave it to the people to decide?
    I thought they had
  • spudgfsh said:

    and also got laughed at

    more than once.
    They laughed at Corbyn once, they laughed with him many times from my recollection. His best line was on the Christmas present
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,097

    I thought they had
    You thought wrong.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,264

    Result binding on all future Governments.
    Surely nothing can be binding on all future Governments?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,314

    You’re right. Why did the audience repeatedly laugh at Boris Johnson?
    Because he’s an unserious twat telling a pack of unconvincing lies.

    Much the same reason as Corbyn, indeed.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Boris Johnson did not come across as a leader tonight.He seemed unprepared and lacking in substance.The audience laughed at him on more than one occasion.His whole demeanour revealed a contemptuous attitude towards the audience.

    Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand was surprisingly good and statesmanlike.

    Yey I am watching sky and they have said the Yougov polling on best PM, boJo won by a mile, they did not give the percentages out.
  • Nothing has changed. Boris is optimistic, makes most people feel happier.

    Corbyn's pitch is everything is terrible.

    Optimism wins.
  • Surely Corbyn would have been hoping for disasters [on Boris's side]. May 2017 had disaster after disaster, at least 3 major memorable disasters which is what helped get him close.

    If these set pieces get ticked off without changing anybodies opinion I think Team Boris will be quietly quite satisfied with that.
    Yep.

    Next step is the manifesto I think.

    Is there a stinking dementia-type bomb in the Tory proposals?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,075

    Been out all evening. What's the verdict from the debate - no score draw?

    Any sensible person would be looking around for someone else to vote for.
  • kle4 said:

    It needed more time. No really, it was not great viewing, but 1 hour was not enough for them to get into things properly, they were always being moved on.
    They could have had more time. They could quite easily have found time by:

    Not asking inane questions on the monarchy/Prince Andrew.
    Not spending time getting them to shake hands during the debate.
    Not asking inane questions on Christmas Presents.
    Not asking other inane questions.
    Not cutting to commercial breaks - sure its ITV but ITV could have opted to go Commercial-Free for the hour to have more time for the debate itself.

    Just off the top of my head.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    They laughed at Corbyn once, they laughed with him many times from my recollection. His best line was on the Christmas present
    They laughed at both of them. Corbyn twice (once on Brexit and once on Antisematism IIRC). They laughed at Johnson once.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Omnium said:

    What does that actually mean in practice though?
    I don't think you can draw a line on anything like such a wide-ranging issue.
    What indeed, although it seems perilously close to the Labour Party position and was ruled out (private sector involvement) by Jezza tonight.

    It is a hugely contentious and important issue and Jezza has a strong view on it. But on that other hugely contentious and important issue (Br*x*t), it is ok for Jezza to have no view whatsoever.

    Was my point.
This discussion has been closed.