politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine

nico67 said:

I think the Lib Dems need to ditch the Jo Swinson for PM literature as it’s likely to be met with derision .

It can actually put people off . There’s a line crossed when voters start laughing at your literature. I like the Lib Dems but the PM line needs to be dropped .

Some of us have been taking the piss out of it for a couple of weeks now....

LostPassword said:

Benpointer said:

eristdoof said:

MrEd said:

Cheers Pulpstar, a very interesting piece.

In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.

In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;

In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament

In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority

In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.

What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.

I don't buy this collective motivation for voting such as "people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament"

In 2017, 32 million people voted all with individual reasons for how they voted.

Precisely. It makes no sense to treat 'the electorate' as if it has a single mind.

There is a reasonable middle ground between - "everyone thinks the same" and "everyone thinks differently".

I think it is reasonable to talk about a general feeling among a large enough number of people to affect the outcome - and I do feel that in 2017 there was a swing to Labour for the purpose of denying Theresa May a majority.

I'd agree that large numbers of voters may have thought this individually and voted accordingly.

Beibheirli_C said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

What are predictions in terms of the debate on Tuesday then?

It will be dull (Corbyn) and incoherent (Boris). It will also be so divorced from reality as to describe an alternate universe where up is down and black is white.

And we will all wonder how we deserve these two half-wits as choices for Leader

Sadly we won't wonder how we deserve it, I think we know why we deserve it - because we keep rewarding them.

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You're all overanalysing the polls.

Wait until the YouGov MRP is published.

Any ideas on date?

I heard last two weeks of the campaign, but might be misremembering.

According to Wiki the first YouGov MRP for GE17 was conducted 23-29 May and first issued, I believe, on 30 May 2017. So just 9 days before the election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model

We'll need to wait until 3 December if they replicate those timescales, this time.

A you gov bod tweeted it would be two weeks before the election.

No, I cannot find that tweet right now.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.

You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better

And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit

And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020

No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.

My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously

Since Boris's Deal will drive a border down the Irish Sea, I expect it will affect Holyhead. As I recall you used to get very worked up about Holyhead and the jobs there. I take it this is no longer a concern? Do you also think that Airbus will stay in N Wales under Boris's deal?

Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue

With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.

I am only saying no deal becomes more likely with a substantial majority and a stubborn EU. I do not want no deal but all conservative mps have signed the pledge to no deal if a deal is not agreed

I have pretty well resigned myself to a Tory majority. The effect on both Holyhead and Fishguard is likely to be dramatic. Both places are shitholes and with even more unemployment if either loses Stenna you may just as well turn off the lights and leave now. I am worried as Fishguard is not far from me. I think you should be concerned too, about the effect of a hard or no brexit on the economy of Ynys Mon.

Wiki poll tracker updated to show this weekends polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Uk2022polling15average.png

MarqueeMark said:

I expect in the debate that Boris will announce half a dozen of the policies Labour was going to unveil in its Manifesto launch on Thursday. Plus he will cut interest on student loans to -1%. And a load of other mental shit. All in Latin.

Corbyn will have lost his voice. He will squeak through it like he is on helium. After six minutes, he will lose it big style. There will be punches thrown at the camera man. He will scream that come the revolution, he will make this guy his personal foot-stool. The medics will come on and sedate him.

Boris will spend the rest of the show chatting, whilst making a cup of tea.

Well it would make for more interesting television.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.

Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.

So that would be a distinction without a difference.

Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.

It’s not that easy as you are fiddling with the entrails of charity law

I think it could be done. Although it would be interesting to see it drawn up in such a way as to leave universities untouched.

But the unintended consequences could easily make Venezuela look like a picnic.

I’d imagine you would define it as a trading activity (therefore liable for vat)

Education is VAT exempt (no right to recover), regardless of the status of the person doing it.

So I think the principal effect would be on a corporation tax level. Which would make them similar to certain higher education providers at the moment

Is that VAT exemption and EU rule or can it be changed by HMG if they so choose?

Not sure. But remember at the moment the exemption means that schools don't have to charge VAT, but they can't recover the VAT they incur on expenditure on supplies. In practice that pushes up education costs in the private sector a little bit.

If they did charge VAT you or I would pay 20% on top, but the school would get some VAT back, so the cost of education wouldn't increase 20%. We could look at making education a zero-rated supply (so they charge 0% VAT and get the VAT they spend back) but I don't think you could do that under the EU VAT Directive. Not 100% sure though.

I wouldn't pay 20% on top because a) I have no children and b) if I did I wouldn't send them to private school.

Andy_JS said:

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You're all overanalysing the polls.

Wait until the YouGov MRP is published.

Any ideas on date?

I heard last two weeks of the campaign, but might be misremembering.

According to Wiki the first YouGov MRP for GE17 was conducted 23-29 May and first issued, I believe, on 30 May 2017. So just 9 days before the election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model

We'll need to wait until 3 December if they replicate those timescales, this time.

I hope they release it earlier this time.

They need the full named list for each constituency plus at least a weeks worth of interviews and I believe they want two weeks.

MarqueeMark said:

I expect in the debate that Boris will announce half a dozen of the policies Labour was going to unveil in its Manifesto launch on Thursday. Plus he will cut interest on student loans to -1%. And a load of other mental shit. All in Latin.

Corbyn will have lost his voice. He will squeak through it like he is on helium. After six minutes, he will lose it big style. There will be punches thrown at the camera man. He will scream that come the revolution, he will make this guy his personal foot-stool. The medics will come on and sedate him.

Boris will spend the rest of the show chatting, whilst making a cup of tea.

One of the advantages of a head-to-head for Johnson is that it will give Corbyn more time to get into his ranty stride.

It will be interesting to see if there is the enthusiasm for these dates as there was in 2015.

MarqueeMark said:

Seriously kicking off in Hong Kong tonight.

The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomastheCat said:

GIN1138 said:

Wiki poll tracker updated to show this weekends polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Uk2022polling15average.png

Still says Nov 12th.

Pretty sure it's been updated at it now shows a couple of blue dots at 45% which weren't there before.

However updated it must have forgotten to update the text to 17th November,

If you see the full details you can see it was updated today, so I think that must be right

Looking at their trend line, I wonder what “seriously underwhelming” looks like for the LibDems? Less than 20? Would be bit in historical terms but might feel like failure.

valleyboy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.

You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better

And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit

And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020

No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.

My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously

Since Boris's Deal will drive a border down the Irish Sea, I expect it will affect Holyhead. As I recall you used to get very worked up about Holyhead and the jobs there. I take it this is no longer a concern? Do you also think that Airbus will stay in N Wales under Boris's deal?

Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue

With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.

I am only saying no deal becomes more likely with a substantial majority and a stubborn EU. I do not want no deal but all conservative mps have signed the pledge to no deal if a deal is not agreed

I have pretty well resigned myself to a Tory majority. The effect on both Holyhead and Fishguard is likely to be dramatic. Both places are shitholes and with even more unemployment if either loses Stenna you may just as well turn off the lights and leave now. I am worried as Fishguard is not far from me. I think you should be concerned too, about the effect of a hard or no brexit on the economy of Ynys Mon.

Holyhead will always be a busy seaport to Ireland. No one seriously thinks the Irish sea ferries will disappear

LostPassword said:

Time_to_Leave said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomastheCat said:

GIN1138 said:

Wiki poll tracker updated to show this weekends polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Uk2022polling15average.png

Still says Nov 12th.

Pretty sure it's been updated at it now shows a couple of blue dots at 45% which weren't there before.

However updated it must have forgotten to update the text to 17th November,

If you see the full details you can see it was updated today, so I think that must be right

Looking at their trend line, I wonder what “seriously underwhelming” looks like for the LibDems? Less than 20? Would be bit in historical terms but might feel like failure.

They went into the election with 21 MPs. If they come out of the election with fewer then it's quite ropey, particularly as that would likely be combined with all the MPs who defected to them losing their seats. Hardly likely to encourage any future defections.

But to be fair to them the “real” line is the 12 from last time isn’t it? Their electoral coalition is now different and they are sort of starting from scratch. But that won’t matter to perceptions and I suspect you’re right. On the numbers we are seeing, I don’t see how they can be seen as anything but losers.

Time_to_Leave said:

LostPassword said:

Time_to_Leave said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

ThomastheCat said:

GIN1138 said:

Wiki poll tracker updated to show this weekends polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Uk2022polling15average.png

Still says Nov 12th.

Pretty sure it's been updated at it now shows a couple of blue dots at 45% which weren't there before.

However updated it must have forgotten to update the text to 17th November,

If you see the full details you can see it was updated today, so I think that must be right

Looking at their trend line, I wonder what “seriously underwhelming” looks like for the LibDems? Less than 20? Would be bit in historical terms but might feel like failure.

They went into the election with 21 MPs. If they come out of the election with fewer then it's quite ropey, particularly as that would likely be combined with all the MPs who defected to them losing their seats. Hardly likely to encourage any future defections.

But to be fair to them the “real” line is the 12 from last time isn’t it? Their electoral coalition is now different and they are sort of starting from scratch. But that won’t matter to perceptions and I suspect you’re right. On the numbers we are seeing, I don’t see how they can be seen as anything but losers.

Their starting point is 12, but after the renaissance they've had this year a modest step forward from 12 would be underwhelming - and would make it hard for them to have an impact.

At one point I thought they had a decent chance of becoming the third party in seats again - which would have given them more questions at PMQs, and generally greater Parliamentary prominence. A modest step forward doesn't seem to match up to the opportunities that should be available given the tumultuous year that we've had.

Will there be a post debate poll.

And if so can people put aside their personal views and be objective .