politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.

My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.

It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.

Don't understand this, but perhaps I'm just being thick. If they are swinging to Greens and LDs, why would Labour's vote share go up?

My impression FWIW is that young people are less engaged this time round, but that those who vote are voting intelligently anti-Tory, with the usual uncertainties in places like Kensington. I don't expect the Greens to do well at all overall, though the Remain alliance gives them a shot at some decent showings. The LibDems are clearly up in their target seats, but not much anywhere else.

SW Surrey count so far: 4 LD leaflets (another one today), 1 Con, 1 Lab.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm also a bit confused about this idea - as of now - Corbyn's appeal to the young has died. "It doesn't feel like last time" many say.

But at this time in the last election (being at a university campus at the time, I had a good insight, I would like to think) it felt exactly the same, utterly hopeless.

It wasn't until the manifesto launched, that things started to change.

Now it may well be different this time - but it's really too early to conclude much, I think.

This is indubitably correct. It is too early to tell definitively. But I've seen a change in friends (slightly older than the youngest, but in the 25-34 age group that were huge switchers to Lab) who in 2017 couldn't understand my own, as a Labour member then, visceral dislike of Corbyn, and largely viewed him as a good bloke who sadly, wasn't going to win. Now, even those who still intend to vote Labour don't like him and it's a case of holding their nose as Boris is, in their view, worse. That's something borne out by his subterranean personal polling - which is worse than in 2017 - when he was still doing poorly but ok among younger voters even if struggling with everyone else. And the fact that Labour have gone so big, so early on their attempts at a tactical voting squeeze. There's a reason the outriders have been attacking the Lib Dems for not helping them - they know their only hope is to get a group of voters who can't stand Corbyn to hold their nose in the hope of a 2nd referendum, and a few freebies from a government that can't get the seats to engage in its madder ideas.

It is likely to work to narrow the gap a little - but enough? And en masse? You're probably asking far too many people who are unenthusiastic about the whole thing to bother to turn up and vote for a party and person they dislike because they dislike the other bloke more. Some will. Some won't bother or vote with their conscience because they either ignore the tactical considerations or they're not clear-cut.

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.

My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.

It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.

Don't understand this, but perhaps I'm just being thick. If they are swinging to Greens and LDs, why would Labour's vote share go up?

My impression FWIW is that young people are less engaged this time round, but that those who vote are voting intelligently anti-Tory, with the usual uncertainties in places like Kensington. I don't expect the Greens to do well at all overall, though the Remain alliance gives them a shot at some decent showings. The LibDems are clearly up in their target seats, but not much anywhere else.

SW Surrey count so far: 4 LD leaflets (another one today), 1 Con, 1 Lab.

So isn't just me being overwhelmed by Lib Dem propaganda...

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think it has to be nailed on (especially the polling over the weekend) that Labour promise to cancel student debt, medical weed, and massive council house building..and more. They are going to through every freebie possible and hope enough of it sticks.

Are the IFS still doing their costings?

There were going to, but they started to look at Labour's offering and found there aren't enough zeros on their calculators to add it all up.

Nought but Tory propaganda?

With apologies to the good Dr @Sunil_Prasannan...

RobD said:

camel said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

I paid for my own degree whilst working full time.

You can shove your 0.5% ..........

But it's supposed to be instead of paying for it, not in addition to.

Oh that's fine then. I'm sorry. I look forward to a substantial cash rebate after which I will happily pay an extra 0.5%. I'd be quids in.

nichomar said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

Well I’ve paid for my 70’s university degree many times over because I have been lucky to do extremely well over the years, I think it was over a million the tax I’ve paid the last time I added it up. The past is not the present though

Yeah, a tax rate makes it more progressive - those that don't make much out of it will pay far less as a few billionaires (as it were) will pay for thousands of other students to go.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand.
'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'

After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister.
'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.

In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7693451/HARRY-COLE-Exclusive-club-ex-Prime-Ministers-rocked-rift.html

Brexit is personal for John Major.

One always has to remember that when he acts like the Gary Linker of the ex-PMs club.

John Major used to be my favourite living ex PM, he has now plummeted down the rankings behind Cameron, May, even Blair for me, though he just pips Brown still

You are very very loyal. Until you are not.

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

From memory, the Welsh alphabet has the same number of letters as the English alphabet, but the letters are different and their frequency are different. This is why a Welsh Scrabble set has different tiles.

Now, to really f*** with your head, have a look at the Maltese alphabet.

FF and LL are letters in Welsh, but as I recall J and Z are not. (Although they do borrow j for some loan words, e.g. 'sandwej.')

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

From memory, the Welsh alphabet has the same number of letters as the English alphabet, but the letters are different and their frequency are different. This is why a Welsh Scrabble set has different tiles.

Now, to really f*** with your head, have a look at the Maltese alphabet.

FF and LL are letters in Welsh, but as I recall J and Z are not. (Although they do borrow j for some loan words, e.g. 'sandwej.')

No "X" (hence "tacsi") but "DD" is a single letter.

Had a feeling there was another one. Is CH treated as a single letter as well for dictionary purposes?

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

That would be an excellent way of really pissing off those who had finally paid off their loans.
Also: is there a list somewhere of graduates? What if your degree was from a non-English university? What happens in Scotland?

However, these are practical details. They will not be in the manifesto...

Fysics_Teacher said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

That would be an excellent way of really pissing off those who had finally paid off their loans.
Also: is there a list somewhere of graduates? What if your degree was from a non-English university? What happens in Scotland?

However, these are practical details. They will not be in the manifesto...

Well I was thinking it would be applied going forward.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

We should abolish fees for people doing degrees which benefit the country and humanity.

So those who read the medicines, STEM, history, and law don't have to pay a fee.

Law?!

Ffs!

Fysics_Teacher said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

That would be an excellent way of really pissing off those who had finally paid off their loans.
Also: is there a list somewhere of graduates? What if your degree was from a non-English university? What happens in Scotland?

However, these are practical details. They will not be in the manifesto...

There will be a list of people who have had loans from 1993 onwards as the SLC keep records of who has and hasn't had them (so that you can't apply for a loan when you've had one before). Admittedly their records department is incredibly good at losing things so that may be a simplistic answer.

Universities will have lists of who did what degree when, but it would be a bastard to prove who did which degree where for common names.

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Jezza promised to cancel student debt, be interesting what the 50% of kids who don't go to uni think about having to pay much higher taxes to fund this.

That's what other policies are there to handle.

Free everything for everybody and only working half a week....all paid for by a handful of billionaires.

That's about the shape of it. It seems a strategy, as you note, that people may not buy it will all happen, but like the sound of it.

HYUFD said:

Yes, even Ed Miliband won 18-35s, it was the 40-50 vote going Labour that lost the Tories their majority, Boris has now got the Tories leading with that middle aged group again which could be crucial

Wasn't it the 35-45s?

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

We should abolish fees for people doing degrees which benefit the country and humanity.

So those who read the medicines, STEM, history, and law don't have to pay a fee.

Law?!

Ffs!

No objection to history then? Good.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

We should abolish fees for people doing degrees which benefit the country and humanity.

So those who read the medicines, STEM, history, and law don't have to pay a fee.

If they are in those fields they will probably be able to afford an additional 0.5p on income tax.

My biggest problem with universities is that we're loading kids with huge debts after they've studied the history of needlework as a tool of oppression by the patriarchy from dumps like Oxford University and former polys run by commies.

My policy will force students to choose decent degrees rather than being loaded up with 50k worth of debt that gets them a job flipping burgers at McDonalds.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.

Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.

So that would be a distinction without a difference.

Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Particularly bad SCON result if this pans out
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1196099148317106176

Since when is holding 3 Scottish seats particularly bad for SCON when SLAB lose all but 1?

I'm sure you've said anything short of the SNP's haul of 56 seats in 2015 is bad for them. By the same token surely a party losing 10 out of 13 couldn't be anything else than bad?

It would not be great but it would still be more than the 1 Scottish seat the Tories won in 2015 when they won an overall majority across the UK

Disgusting, this is the sort of behaviour you'd expect from a Tony Blair run Labour conference.

Outrage as blind African student, 25, is dragged ‘by his ankles’ out of Oxford Union debating chamber

Ebenezer Azamati had wanted to attend a talk at the Oxford Union on October 17

25-year-old reserved a seat due to concerns there were no provisions in place

Officials refused his attendance and were seen manhandling him out of his seat

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7694591/Outrage-blind-student-25-dragged-ankles-Oxford-Union-debating-chamber.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.

So we will see what happens this time.

I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.

How will they pay for it?

Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?

Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?

How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?

Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?

I think you're right, it's what they'll say.

But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.

What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...

I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.

We should abolish fees for people doing degrees which benefit the country and humanity.

So those who read the medicines, STEM, history, and law don't have to pay a fee.

If they are in those fields they will probably be able to afford an additional 0.5p on income tax.

My biggest problem with universities is that we're loading kids with huge debts after they've studied the history of needlework as a tool of oppression by the patriarchy from dumps like Oxford University and former polys run by commies.

My policy will force students to choose decent degrees rather than being loaded up with 50k worth of debt that gets them a job flipping burgers at McDonalds.

I can’t disagree with that although my three daughters went to university
1 got a degree in social studies (?) and now has extensive accountancy qualifications
2 got a degree in psychology and criminal justice and now is a mental health therapist with an MSc, and two other post grad qualifications
3 has an English degree and just gained a PGCE so the nature of the degree is not every thing.

Mine was Chem Eng and Mgt Economics and my wife pharmacy both more defined but I never trusted myself to design chemical plant safely so didn’t go that route.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.

Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.

So that would be a distinction without a difference.

Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.

I basically agree with what you're saying - but my interest is in the perception of the policy, not the impacts of it.

People have been told up to now (although I don't know how much breakthrough it has) that Labour is going to ban private schools, confiscate their land, etc.

But when the policy ends up being "we'll make them pay their fair share", I suspect the majority will probably say "oh sounds ok then". The effect of it, Labour will hope is, "they're a lot less radical than I thought they were, that reds under the bed stuff seems a bit overblown".

It's the perceptions that are important. What was crucial - IMHO - in 2017 was that Labour really wasn't that radical. They had a good balance between what was electorally possible and being radical. The most radical thing they promised was probably scrapping tuition fees, which isn't radical historically.

My point is that - similar to what somebody else said - if Labour are seen as nutty Communists, it actually plays to their strength if it turns out they're not at all. What people found when they saw Corbyn interviewed and also in person, was that he was basically harmless but caring. That was the contrast with May.

Who knows what will happen in the debate on Tuesday - but I suspect the key for Corbyn will be making himself look decidedly unradical and making Johnson look like a nutter.

But the point is, if it's a policy with disastrous, unintended side effects that ends up making matters far worse, it is still a nutty policy. It doesn't matter if it's 'radical' or not from that point of view.

For example, would cancelling HS2 be radical? Of course not. Quite the opposite. It's the safe option, financially and politically, for the government. But it would also make the current total logjam on the WCML insoluble.

It's not about whether something is ideologically sound. Policies can be that, and still be good. It's about whether they will work or whether they're bribe's to sucker in idiots.

At the moment, Corbyn's entire policy offering however he dresses it up is pretty much the latter.

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

Yes, even Ed Miliband won 18-35s, it was the 40-50 vote going Labour that lost the Tories their majority, Boris has now got the Tories leading with that middle aged group again which could be crucial

Wasn't it the 35-45s?

Technically the 35 to 47s, the average age you stopped voting Labour on average was 34 in 2015, with the Tories tieing 35-44 year olds and ahead amongst 45 to 54s.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015

In 2017 Labour led with all ages up to 47

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think it has to be nailed on (especially the polling over the weekend) that Labour promise to cancel student debt, medical weed, and massive council house building..and more. They are going to through every freebie possible and hope enough of it sticks.

Are the IFS still doing their costings?

There were going to, but they started to look at Labour's offering and found there aren't enough zeros on their calculators to add it all up.

Nought but Tory propaganda?

With apologies to the good Dr @Sunil_Prasannan...

NAUGHT but Tory Propaganda!

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Time_to_Leave said:

There is a point, and we may be past it, where Labour promises so much to so many that the vast majority stops listening.

There is a danger, picked up in the Stoke / Bolton / West Brom focus group, where people went of course it is horseshit, they will never pay for all that, but arrhh f##k it, why not, even if we only get half of all the sweeties, what's the worst that could happen, we aren't going to become a communist country.

When politicians talk this massive numbers, the general public just see it all as "a lot" and nothing more really. £1bn, £10bn or £100bn it all blurs into the same.

A-level Physics students make power of ten errors all the time, and they normally have a better grasp of this type of number than most.

For an example of the difference:
A million seconds is twelve days.
A billion seconds is thirty two years.

It’s when medics and, worse, pharmacists make tenfold or hundred-fold errors that things really go awry. I still have a shudder at the memory of an anaesthetist ringing me up, as on-call pharmacist, one 3am and arguing about the strength of a pre-filled syringe.
Fortunately I was awake enough to redo the calculations in my head and convince him he was wrong.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

Negotiations on a FTA with the EU will still continue even if Boris leaves the transition period provided the WA has passed by then

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think it has to be nailed on (especially the polling over the weekend) that Labour promise to cancel student debt, medical weed, and massive council house building..and more. They are going to through every freebie possible and hope enough of it sticks.

Are the IFS still doing their costings?

There were going to, but they started to look at Labour's offering and found there aren't enough zeros on their calculators to add it all up.

Nought but Tory propaganda?

With apologies to the good Dr @Sunil_Prasannan...

NAUGHT but Tory Propaganda!

NOWT but Tory Propaganda!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

That doesn't make any sense.

If Johnson and the ERG don't agree to the level playing field regulations then agreeing an FTA is the worst outcome for the EU as they then give market access to the Singapore off Europe.

Not convinced there will be lots of investment in the UK economy if we don't have that access.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think the public perception of Corbyn's policies is probably mostly positive. Even if like you say, the impacts will not be.

I happen to think HS2 is probably a good idea - but I've have started in the North first.

A forum I go on (football related) populated by the late teens/early 20s is definitely not in support of government broadband. Once the penny dropped about the limitations of service and the inevitable problems getting faults fixed there was a real kickback.

Same with changing the tax status on private schools, once voters realise what that will mean for their kids in the state sector it will blow up in Labour's face.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group

If anyone wants to look at voter registration

Thanks. Can someone explain how to download data in JSON format (to say Excel) please.

SunnyJim said:

PeterC said:

John Major was good in that he ran a steady ship and avoided blowing things up either at home or abroad. But his enduring bitterness is a sight to behold.

I thought Major was an outstanding PM with a legacy that improved with time.

So it actually genuinely hurt seeing him behave the way he did over the referendum result.

Grieve, Soubry, Letwin etc are just nothing sh*ts but Major was a political 'hero' in as much a normal functioning adult could have a political hero.

I find myself making excuses...'Maastricht blah blah'.

Nah he was an awful PM.

Bear in mind he was responsible for a number of the decisions normally blamed on Thatcher.

It was Major who as Chancellor pushed so hard for us to join the ERM even though it was clear it was at a rate that would be unsustainable. It was then he who fought so hard to keep us in even when the policy was obviously such a disaster.

It was Major who privatised the railways in such a ridiculous manner. A privatisation too far as far as Thatcher was concerned and done in such a way as to almost assure there would be conflict and failure.

It was Major who, along with Heseltine, pushed mine closures far past just shutting down the unprofitable ones and into shutting down everything, whether profitable or not.

It was Major who pushed through the Maastricht Treaty when it should have been obvious it was just going to make matters even worse as far as British attitudes to the EU were concerned.

It was Major who presided over the cash for questions scandal and then prorogued Parliament to avoid having to face a damagingly critical report - entirely for political reasons. And he then has the audacity to attack Johnson for doing the same thing.

He was an awful PM and his behaviour in recent times just reinforce how bad he was.

Benpointer said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group

If anyone wants to look at voter registration

Thanks. Can someone explain how to download data in JSON format (to say Excel) please.

Easier just to select all and then copy paste.

spudgfsh said:

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1196099148317106176

I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.

I struggle understand how to there are only 7 non-SNP seats in Scotland but the SNP only have 51.

There are 8 non-SNP seats on the map. 2 tories on the borders plus aberdeen. 4 LD (Orkney/Shetland, the bit at the top, 1 near glasgow and one near edinbrough) plus a labour one

It's still a stupid map. You would have thought they would have spotted that glaring error over Buckingham.

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

Blimey Big_G do you never learn? No Deal (aka WTO terms) will be a disaster.

For the UK much more than the EU.

Of course I learn and it could well be a disaster but if the majority is there he can more or less dictate to the EU

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group

If anyone wants to look at voter registration

I am not sure too much should be read into loads of 18-25 year old registering. All unis try and auto register every one of their students (unless they opted on when they signed-up for the academic year), even if they are already registered.

Wut?

Didn't happen with me

It is the standard practice now. Perhaps all unis might not be correct, for most of them definitely do.

Was the standard practice in Aberystwyth 18 years ago as well.

Unis for as long as I can remember used to register people living in halls, but now standard practice seems to be just do everybody.

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

Johnson’s majority makes no difference to the future relationship with the EU it is already defined, it will be significantly worse than our current arrangement but be heralded as a dramatic victory by our pathological liar and amoral PM. Then life can progress but by 31/6 next year is really stretch the bounds of possibility. Don’t forget the extension has to be requested by that date or in the words of Noel Edmonds it’s deal or no deal

And that is why I maintain no deal is a very strong possibility

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

I've no desire to live in Singapore-on-Thames which won't benefit the vast majority of people.

If that's the thinking of the modern Conservative Party I'm delighted I'm no Tory - I'd much protect the unfortunate from the tyranny of policies like this.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ydoethur said:

But the point is, if it's a policy with disastrous, unintended side effects that ends up making matters far worse, it is still a nutty policy. It doesn't matter if it's 'radical' or not from that point of view.

For example, would cancelling HS2 be radical? Of course not. Quite the opposite. It's the safe option, financially and politically, for the government. But it would also make the current total logjam on the WCML insoluble.

It's not about whether something is ideologically sound. Policies can be that, and still be good. It's about whether they will work or whether they're bribe's to sucker in idiots.

At the moment, Corbyn's entire policy offering however he dresses it up is pretty much the latter.

I think the public perception of Corbyn's policies is probably mostly positive. Even if like you say, the impacts will not be.

I happen to think HS2 is probably a good idea - but I've have started in the North first.

You really are ramping Corbyn but fail to see he is not trusted to implement his policies without destroying the financial stability of the country and annihilating pension values for the vast majority of ordinary workers. He is seeking to change us into a marxist state alongside anti west, anti nato, anti army, pro Russia policies

If you remove the army bit you could be talking about Johnson or Trump. Awful man though Corbyn undoubtedly is, you are simply regurgitating Boris' gaslighting strategy.

Buttigeig is a joke https://twitter.com/RachelRGonzalez/status/1195766370010464256

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ydoethur said:

But the point is, if it's a policy with disastrous, unintended side effects that ends up making matters far worse, it is still a nutty policy. It doesn't matter if it's 'radical' or not from that point of view.

For example, would cancelling HS2 be radical? Of course not. Quite the opposite. It's the safe option, financially and politically, for the government. But it would also make the current total logjam on the WCML insoluble.

It's not about whether something is ideologically sound. Policies can be that, and still be good. It's about whether they will work or whether they're bribe's to sucker in idiots.

At the moment, Corbyn's entire policy offering however he dresses it up is pretty much the latter.

I think the public perception of Corbyn's policies is probably mostly positive. Even if like you say, the impacts will not be.

I happen to think HS2 is probably a good idea - but I've have started in the North first.

You really are ramping Corbyn but fail to see he is not trusted to implement his policies without destroying the financial stability of the country and annihilating pension values for the vast majority of ordinary workers. He is seeking to change us into a marxist state alongside anti west, anti nato, anti army, pro Russia policies

If you remove the army bit you could be talking about Johnson or Trump. Awful man though Corbyn undoubtedly is, you are simply regurgitating Boris' gaslighting strategy.

There are so many reasonable criticisms of Corbyn but quite frankly I switch off when I hear he's a Marxist Communist spy who is simultaenously so fucking useless he can't take a view on anything.

Milliband was apparently a Communist, I'm sure Brown was called a Communist as well.

It just gets tiring after a while - and quite frankly the Tories have been doing their best to screw up the country over the last 9 years.

You don't seriously believe this do you?

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

I've no desire to live in Singapore-on-Thames which won't benefit the vast majority of people.

If that's the thinking of the modern Conservative Party I'm delighted I'm no Tory - I'd much protect the unfortunate from the tyranny of policies like this.

We have no idea how that would work out and I have only put it in there to alert posters that no deal has not gone away post a 31st January majority conservative government

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ydoethur said:

But the point is, if it's a policy with disastrous, unintended side effects that ends up making matters far worse, it is still a nutty policy. It doesn't matter if it's 'radical' or not from that point of view.

For example, would cancelling HS2 be radical? Of course not. Quite the opposite. It's the safe option, financially and politically, for the government. But it would also make the current total logjam on the WCML insoluble.

It's not about whether something is ideologically sound. Policies can be that, and still be good. It's about whether they will work or whether they're bribe's to sucker in idiots.

At the moment, Corbyn's entire policy offering however he dresses it up is pretty much the latter.

I think the public perception of Corbyn's policies is probably mostly positive. Even if like you say, the impacts will not be.

I happen to think HS2 is probably a good idea - but I've have started in the North first.

You really are ramping Corbyn but fail to see he is not trusted to implement his policies without destroying the financial stability of the country and annihilating pension values for the vast majority of ordinary workers. He is seeking to change us into a marxist state alongside anti west, anti nato, anti army, pro Russia policies

I have my own favoured outcome - but I am doing my best not to let that bias my conclusions here.

Must try harder

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group

If anyone wants to look at voter registration

I am not sure too much should be read into loads of 18-25 year old registering. All unis try and auto register every one of their students (unless they opted on when they signed-up for the academic year), even if they are already registered.

Wut?

Didn't happen with me

It is the standard practice now. Perhaps all unis might not be correct, for most of them definitely do.

Was the standard practice in Aberystwyth 18 years ago as well.

Unis for as long as I can remember used to register people living in halls, but now standard practice seems to be just do everybody.

I don't think they can register people not living in their accommodation. Would that even be legal?

But everyone in PJM, the halls on Penglais, the seafront halls, Bryn Derw and Ty Gwerin were automatically enrolled.

They definitely do (at least at a load of unis I am aware of). Its on the registration form where the kids agree for the uni to register their details with the council for both council tax purposes and for voting registration.

I'm struggling to see how that's possible under individual registration. I can't understand how they could just hand over an address they don't own to the council.

With students’ consent, the service collects essential information from the university (such as date of birth and full name) and the student (National Insurance number) and automatically transfers it to the relevant, participating electoral registrars at local authorities, reducing the effort and expense it would take for universities and colleges to work with multiple electoral registrars across the UK.

https://www.jisc.ac.uk/news/student-voter-registration-service-gains-its-1000th-sign-up-01-oct-2019

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO

At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table

Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA

Blimey Big_G do you never learn? No Deal (aka WTO terms) will be a disaster.

For the UK much more than the EU.

Of course I learn and it could well be a disaster but if the majority is there he can more or less dictate to the EU

You don't seriously believe this do you?

Yes - in some ways a majority conservative government whose mps have all signed a pledge to leave on no deal if necessary ( as they have) makes it very possible

Banterman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SunnyJim said:

PeterC said:

John Major was good in that he ran a steady ship and avoided blowing things up either at home or abroad. But his enduring bitterness is a sight to behold.

I thought Major was an outstanding PM with a legacy that improved with time.

So it actually genuinely hurt seeing him behave the way he did over the referendum result.

Grieve, Soubry, Letwin etc are just nothing sh*ts but Major was a political 'hero' in as much a normal functioning adult could have a political hero.

I find myself making excuses...'Maastricht blah blah'.

Nah he was an awful PM.

Bear in mind he was responsible for a number of the decisions normally blamed on Thatcher.

It was Major who as Chancellor pushed so hard for us to join the ERM even though it was clear it was at a rate that would be unsustainable. It was then he who fought so hard to keep us in even when the policy was obviously such a disaster.

It was Major who privatised the railways in such a ridiculous manner. A privatisation too far as far as Thatcher was concerned and done in such a way as to almost assure there would be conflict and failure.

It was Major who, along with Heseltine, pushed mine closures far past just shutting down the unprofitable ones and into shutting down everything, whether profitable or not.

It was Major who pushed through the Maastricht Treaty when it should have been obvious it was just going to make matters even worse as far as British attitudes to the EU were concerned.

It was Major who presided over the cash for questions scandal and then prorogued Parliament to avoid having to face a damagingly critical report - entirely for political reasons. And he then has the audacity to attack Johnson for doing the same thing.

He was an awful PM and his behaviour in recent times just reinforce how bad he was.

Major has become so foul, I now feel really sorry for Edwina Curry. I mean, what on earth was she thinking about?

She put the chicken before the bad egg