politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are wors

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

alb1on said:

Brom said:

Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.

Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).

While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?

She did win an open primary.

That was a long time ago now. I can believe she still has a personal vote, but the general rule on personal votes is they are not as big as people think.

I agree, personal votes are just a few thousand at most, and some MPs have negative personal votes!

It was a while ago, but I thought there was some data that showed they were a few *hundred* votes at best

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

Three shoes? Hmmm

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

I'm with you on most of that. I'd certainly welcome the confiscation of golf courses - to be used for llama grazing. Trees densely planted on roundabouts, forcing drivers to slow down and look anxiously. All domestic animals to be set free. Cyclists to ride in the middle of the road, overtaking cars to use the gutter. A public education programme to convince the housewife that root vegetables don't need to be geometrically perfect to be edible.

Barnesian said:

Here is a very simple thought experiment.

Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

basicbridge said:

squareroot2 said:

basicbridge said:

History doesn't repeat itself.

Corbyn is toxic.

UK voters are not marxists

UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

That's all you need to know.....

BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?

How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?

They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

There's an Acol Road in West Hampsted near the Bridge Club, and I've often wondered if Acol was named after it.

Yes, the eponymous bidding convention was devised at the Acol Bridge Club. I once wandered past it as a student. The trouble with wandering anywhere in Hampstead is most of it is uphill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acol#Origins

I once played bridge for Cambridge University, partnering Tom Townsend. (Not because I'm a good bridge player, but because he was a friend of mine, it was the last game of the season, and his usual partner had exams.)

When I confessed my Acol was pretty weak, he said don't worry we'll just play natural.

Like all competitive bridge, the it was duplicate pairs, and when Tom announced we would use no bidding convention, and would just be playing natural, one of our opponent's hands shot up "tournament director! tournament director!". Our opponents refused to believe that the captain of the England under-21 team was playing natural.

During the game, I bid on something, and our opponents doubled, and I redoubled. Again the hand flew up. "Tournament director! I demand to know what they meant by the redouble." And Tom said... "Hmmm... I think it means that he thinks we're going to make the contract."

I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

numbertwelve said:

I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

Especially after offering everyone free broadband.

Charles said:

basicbridge said:

squareroot2 said:

basicbridge said:

History doesn't repeat itself.

Corbyn is toxic.

UK voters are not marxists

UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

That's all you need to know.....

BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?

How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?

They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

rottenborough said:

ThomastheCat said:

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1195815006262177793?s=21

Some serious stuff hasn't made into this 'leak' i reckon.

Yeah, it's not in blowing socks off territory.

Retail politics.

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195841434848501762

Alphabet_Soup said:

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

I'm with you on most of that. I'd certainly welcome the confiscation of golf courses - to be used for llama grazing. Trees densely planted on roundabouts, forcing drivers to slow down and look anxiously. All domestic animals to be set free. Cyclists to ride in the middle of the road, overtaking cars to use the gutter. A public education programme to convince the housewife that root vegetables don't need to be geometrically perfect to be edible.

Arghhhh.....wouldn't it be wonderful to see our town and country golf courses populated by herds (??) or whatever groups of llamas are called....instead of what we see now..... herds (??) or whatever groups of white, old, Tory/ Brexiteer males driving around in buggies are called....

Andy_JS said:

Barnesian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?

The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂

@Philip_Thompson
Philip

Could you have a look at my predictions by constituency and pick out one which you think should be definitely Tory and I have it as something else?

I'll check my calculations and assumptions and share them with you.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

If it's okay, I'm having a look as well to see if I can spot anything.

Excellent!

Barnesian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?

The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂

@Philip_Thompson
Philip

Could you have a look at my predictions by constituency and pick out one which you think should be definitely Tory and I have it as something else?

I'll check my calculations and assumptions and share them with you.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

From an initial quick glance some interesting ones standing out based on the polling numbers quoted these all should easily fall under smaller swings.

Alyn and Deeside
Bassetlaw
Briston NW
Darlington
Gower
Rother Valley
Weaver Vale

All of these should fall on less than a 4% swing yet there's about a 5% swing and they haven't according to your spreadsheet.

Prince Andrew's denials are crazy...

Yes I stayed in a convicted paedos house (after he had been release from jail) for 4 days, because I had to tell him face to face I couldn't be his friend, but he wasn't really my friend and I only saw him for a dinner and a walk in the park. And yes I could have stayed in a hotel, but I might not have been able to catch up with him.

And actually I was not really friends with him, but I was long time friends with his girlfriend, but I never ever been upstairs in her house.

ThomastheCat said:

https://twitter.com/davidhirsh/status/1195834490255527937?s=21

Where does Labour manage to find these people? Honestly you begin to wonder whether they activity seek them out.

ThomastheCat said:

https://twitter.com/davidhirsh/status/1195834490255527937?s=21

Time for the daily Labour antisemitism story..

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

basicbridge said:

squareroot2 said:

basicbridge said:

History doesn't repeat itself.

Corbyn is toxic.

UK voters are not marxists

UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

That's all you need to know.....

BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?

How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?

They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

There's an Acol Road in West Hampsted near the Bridge Club, and I've often wondered if Acol was named after it.

Yes, the eponymous bidding convention was devised at the Acol Bridge Club. I once wandered past it as a student. The trouble with wandering anywhere in Hampstead is most of it is uphill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acol#Origins

I once played bridge for Cambridge University, partnering Tom Townsend. (Not because I'm a good bridge player, but because he was a friend of mine, it was the last game of the season, and his usual partner had exams.)

When I confessed my Acol was pretty weak, he said don't worry we'll just play natural.

Like all competitive bridge, the it was duplicate pairs, and when Tom announced we would use no bidding convention, and would just be playing natural, one of our opponent's hands shot up "tournament director! tournament director!". Our opponents refused to believe that the captain of the England under-21 team was playing natural.

During the game, I bid on something, and our opponents doubled, and I redoubled. Again the hand flew up. "Tournament director! I demand to know what they meant by the redouble." And Tom said... "Hmmm... I think it means that he thinks we're going to make the contract."

I’ve nearly been kicked by many a partner for going off piste and going for it as if I were playing poker, just to get the other pair in too deep. Were I American, I’d have been shot by now.

FrancisUrquhart said:

ThomastheCat said:

https://twitter.com/davidhirsh/status/1195834490255527937?s=21

Time for the daily Labour antisemitism story..

I am surprised the media can ration it to one a day given the seeming state of Labour and its selected candidates.

RobD said:

Barnesian said:

Here is a very simple thought experiment.

Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.

I made it three. Guildford, Portsmouth South and Montgomeryshire. But even if it were six, it's not a lot for a 6% increase in national share and lead over Labour.

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.

If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.

If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.

Judging by this morning's mass reset of passwords by admin, maybe that has been tried

tyson said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

I'm with you on most of that. I'd certainly welcome the confiscation of golf courses - to be used for llama grazing. Trees densely planted on roundabouts, forcing drivers to slow down and look anxiously. All domestic animals to be set free. Cyclists to ride in the middle of the road, overtaking cars to use the gutter. A public education programme to convince the housewife that root vegetables don't need to be geometrically perfect to be edible.

Arghhhh.....wouldn't it be wonderful to see our town and country golf courses populated by herds (??) or whatever groups of llamas are called....instead of what we see now..... herds (??) or whatever groups of white, old, Tory/ Brexiteer males driving around in buggies are called....

Poetry has to go. Pretentious garbage....

Chewing gum / bubble gum should be made illegal

Brassicas and other cruciferous vegetables should no longer be considered as food

Luckyguy1983 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Casino_Royale said:

Are shy LDs a thing?

I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

Something doesn’t smell right.

Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.

LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.

That bullshit is on the march though.

I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.

My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'

I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.

I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.

They don't have an image problem, they have a dietary problem. A vegan diet is not a healthy diet - it is objectively not possible to get the nutrition needed for health on a vegan diet, which is why certain dietary supplements are required. It's abysmal.

"Objectively not possible" is not correct. It is *harder* with a vegan diet. But it is by no means impossible.

Which particular nutrients do you think are impossible with a vegan diet.

Evening all.

As I've been saying for a while: Labour prioritising everything is Labour prioritising nothing, leaving voters unimpressed.

Why on earth the LibDems aren't laying in to Labour on this is anyone's guess. It's an ideal opportunity for them, which they are spectacularly missing.

Meanwhile Boris just needs to do nothing very much.

Still room for LAB overall majority!

Goodnight

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
-ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
- ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
-ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
-ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
-ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
-ban private cars enough said
-people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
-ban shops- shocking waste of resources
-loads of tree planting


Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.

If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.

Judging by this morning's mass reset of passwords by admin, maybe that has been tried

Pb.com: for the stupid and boring and persistent.....

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

Thanks Rob.

Be interesting to see if we have black line crossover by this time next week.

It's weird how much the Labour one matches the 2017 trend line though, very creepy

Not that weird. The initial 2017 trend that has been matched so far was nothing strange. Minor parties not really standing in seats get squeezed as people face reality and choose a side.

What was really strange in 2017 hasn't happened yet:
1: Labour squeezing the Tories in the final fortnight.
2: Labour actually scored massively more than its poll line says.

Assumption being the Labour vote is being understated again perhaps?

The shy Labour effect?

No that's not what I said.

Please do clarify then, because I have obviously not understood it.

Labour had a perfect storm last time.

Squeezing minor parties
Then squeezing the Tories after May ran an awful campaign with the dementia tax
Then beating the polls [which in part is probably due to them still moving post dementia tax]

Just because the minor parties have been squeezed now does not mean the rest will repeat itself.

Gabs3 said:

Barnesian said:

Here is a very simple thought experiment.

Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

Yes, I think the Tories have a very inefficient vote this time. Combined with Labour having a massobe GOTV operation, I think the seat numbers will be close.

Should the Conservatives end up with a vote share something like 2017, whilst Labour ends up somewhere close to 30% (i.e. shedding about a quarter of its entire vote from last time,) then it's hard to see how the reds and blues somehow end up close to parity in terms of number of MPs. It would require at least one, and probably both, main parties to magically become more popular where they have sitting MPs and less popular where they do not at the same time. With said trend being more exaggerated amongst the Conservative vote in order to bring the number of Tory seats down a smidgen.

Regardless of the limited effects of non-uniform swing and tactical voting, the Con-Lab seat gap ought, broadly speaking, to expand or contract in line with the differential in vote share. The efficiency or otherwise of that vote share can only move the seat totals so far.

If the final result is something like Con 40, Lab 30, the Conservatives will win convincingly.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

Nice charts (well, nicely presented )

Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!

You should try Seaborn.

Arthur said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.

How about there is already insufficient capacity in the NHS dental system and it would be better to use the funds to expand if

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

Nice charts (well, nicely presented )

Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!

You should try Seaborn.

I'm getting too old to learn a new language.

It isn't. Its just a wrapper around Matplotlib, that makes sexier charts.

https://seaborn.pydata.org/

Arthur said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.

Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

Broadband or teeth?

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:

LibDems are putting Swinson everywhere in their campaign. So why is her Twitter account so quiet?

I don't know who's running the LD campaign but they're not doing a very good job. The party was level with Labour in the polls at the end of September.

Part of that will just be FPTP squeeze - people are rarely super optimistic, and can see Labour are the most viable anti-Tory option in most places - and we all know its hard for them to get media time, but the last week they've been invisible, and they had some decent coverage to start with but didn't seem to get much traction from it. Shame.

rottenborough said:

Arthur said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.

Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

Broadband or teeth?

We are going to have it all. Work half the week, free everything all paid for by the billionaires.

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

Nice charts (well, nicely presented )

Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!

You should try Seaborn.

I'm getting too old to learn a new language.

It isn't. Its just a wrapper around Matplotlib, that makes sexier charts.

https://seaborn.pydata.org/

Ooo! I'm a big fan of functional, but maybe it's time to give sexy a go.

Some dire polling for Labour and the Lib Dems are also sinking in the Deltapoll.

Hard to see how things might change drastically, the Tory manifesto is going to be one which will be designed to not be controversial.

I think what will really alarm Labour is that some dreadful headlines for the Tories in terms of the NHS have done zip to hurt them , the two polls which look bearable haven’t yet taken fully into account the BP standing down in the Tory seats , I think those with that will have shown leads around 10 %.

Given the huge Tory leads it’s a shame now that Johnson sees fit to use the anti-migrant card.

Barnesian said:

Here is a very simple thought experiment.

Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

It would mean that the Conservatives were able to defend their 2017 seats against the LibDems and SNP.

And its those losses to the LibDems and SNP which are assumed to stop the Conservatives winning a majority.

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I don't know why, but I am about to subject myself to the 2nd episode of the Mandalorian....its only 30mins long. Can't Disney even make 1hr episodes.

Always worth giving something 3-4 episodes, to get past teething issues. Heck, the entire first season of some things are not good, like Parks and Recreation.

and Deep Space Nine (excluding Duet)

rottenborough said:

ThomastheCat said:

https://twitter.com/davidhirsh/status/1195834490255527937?s=21

Where does Labour manage to find these people? Honestly you begin to wonder whether they activity seek them out.

They don't have to. The current Labour leadership attracts cranks like flies to shit.

And, of course, now these candidates have been nominated they can't replace them. Plaid Cymru will be delighted.

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

Especially after offering everyone free broadband.

I think the broadband policy will turn out to be the moment Labour lost the election...

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Arthur said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.

Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

Broadband or teeth?

We are going to have it all. Work half the week, free everything all paid for by the billionaires.

About those billionaires...

The ones soon to be waving from foreign lands?

another_richard said:

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

Barnesian said:

Here is a very simple thought experiment.

Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.

I made it three. Guildford, Portsmouth South and Montgomeryshire. But even if it were six, it's not a lot for a 6% increase in national share and lead over Labour.

Do you really think the Conservatives would lose a 26.6% majority in Montgomeryshire if TBP stood. ?

Good point - UKIP got 10% in 2015, and the Brexit party aren't doing any better than them.

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

Especially after offering everyone free broadband.

I think the broadband policy will turn out to be the moment Labour lost the election...

As a policy, it just seems so ... frivolous. Tens of billion of pounds to nationalise something that already works well in the private sector and which most people already have? It must have looked like a clever wheeze to McDonnell, but it makes Labour look fundamentally unserious, like the Pirate Party.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1195824687135252480

So what he's saying is it is actually going to be even more "radical"?

rottenborough said:

twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1195850083901878272

This seems to be Labour "attack" line to take this evening. Its all about the wrong weightings.