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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    Eclectic list. 'ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live' seems a bit harsh on those animals we've bred to trust us and not run away when we go to kill them. You must add Cricket to the list of acceptable cultural activities though I'm afraid.
  • nunu2 said:

    https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1195834646333939712?s=20

    If anyone was wondering the impact of don't know. This assumes all the unknowns go to Labour (they won't).

    So it would be hypothetically be a couple of points higher with the don't knows factored in, at the moment.

    I thought this was only assuming the 2017 Labour dont knows go down to the same level as the Tories?

    If this assumption is based on *all* of the Dont knows going to Labour then Labour are done for.

    Can you confirm please? Is making the labour and tory dont know the same or allocating all of the dont knows to labour?
    If all the current don't knows in that poll went to Labour, apparently the gap would close by 4 points.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Nice charts (well, nicely presented :smile:)
    Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!
    Out of interest, how does it do the trend? Is it just a basic least squares fit?
    Trend is super basic. For each day I just take the simple average of all polls within a ±3.5 day window (so a week in total). I could try something fancier like a gaussian kernel, but thought i'd keep it simple.
    Thanks. I keep having to restrain myself from thinking all three 2019 lines might actually look flat by the time we have a full time series (and already might if you were quite strict on removing outliers). But that’s pure instinct and unlike you I’ve been too lazy to actually play with the data.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    alb1on said:

    Brom said:

    Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

    I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.

    Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).
    While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?
    She did win an open primary.
    That was a long time ago now. I can believe she still has a personal vote, but the general rule on personal votes is they are not as big as people think.
    I agree, personal votes are just a few thousand at most, and some MPs have negative personal votes!
    It was a while ago, but I thought there was some data that showed they were a few *hundred* votes at best
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    Three shoes? Hmmm
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    Yes, I think the Tories have a very inefficient vote this time. Combined with Labour having a massobe GOTV operation, I think the seat numbers will be close.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.

    From the reviews I've heard it should be avoided because its not a very good film. What did you think?
    I have a duty to inform the site that Sky has updated its cinema library to include “Christmas Films”

    Die Hard is the #3 film on the list
    I know we jokingly grumble about that, but in all honesty I quite like cheesy 'christmas films' of the Hallmark and Netflix variety, and including films set at Christmas messes with my flow while looking for ones to select.
    I shall get in the blower to Michael immediately!
  • tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I'm with you on most of that. I'd certainly welcome the confiscation of golf courses - to be used for llama grazing. Trees densely planted on roundabouts, forcing drivers to slow down and look anxiously. All domestic animals to be set free. Cyclists to ride in the middle of the road, overtaking cars to use the gutter. A public education programme to convince the housewife that root vegetables don't need to be geometrically perfect to be edible.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    Eclectic list. 'ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live' seems a bit harsh on those animals we've bred to trust us and not run away when we go to kill them. You must add Cricket to the list of acceptable cultural activities though I'm afraid.
    I would take just getting rid of Cruises for now...step at a time kind of thing.....the concept of these huge chunks of metal spewing up the world's resources for the sake of pleasuring a bunch of Tory geriatrics is sickening......

    Obviously cricket staying in the new world is a given- I would even lengthen test match to a month and 15 innings per side per match; we will need something to occupy ourselves after all....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited November 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    welshowl said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    Three shoes? Hmmm
    Of course, and lucky to have one spare. Who says shoes need to be matched to specific feet anyway?

    I only have one coat now though, and no pyjamas, so I'm hoping I can trade up for a few more socks.
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    BTW, people who are easily triggered should avoid the film Last Christmas due to some Brexit references in it.

    From the reviews I've heard it should be avoided because its not a very good film. What did you think?
    I have a duty to inform the site that Sky has updated its cinema library to include “Christmas Films”

    Die Hard is the #3 film on the list
    I know we jokingly grumble about that, but in all honesty I quite like cheesy 'christmas films' of the Hallmark and Netflix variety, and including films set at Christmas messes with my flow while looking for ones to select.
    I shall get in the blower to Michael immediately!
    Thanks Charles, it's good to have friends in high places.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself
    There's an Acol Road in West Hampsted near the Bridge Club, and I've often wondered if Acol was named after it.
    Yes, the eponymous bidding convention was devised at the Acol Bridge Club. I once wandered past it as a student. The trouble with wandering anywhere in Hampstead is most of it is uphill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acol#Origins
    I once played bridge for Cambridge University, partnering Tom Townsend. (Not because I'm a good bridge player, but because he was a friend of mine, it was the last game of the season, and his usual partner had exams.)

    When I confessed my Acol was pretty weak, he said don't worry we'll just play natural.

    Like all competitive bridge, the it was duplicate pairs, and when Tom announced we would use no bidding convention, and would just be playing natural, one of our opponent's hands shot up "tournament director! tournament director!". Our opponents refused to believe that the captain of the England under-21 team was playing natural.

    During the game, I bid on something, and our opponents doubled, and I redoubled. Again the hand flew up. "Tournament director! I demand to know what they meant by the redouble." And Tom said... "Hmmm... I think it means that he thinks we're going to make the contract."
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63

    RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Thanks Rob.

    Be interesting to see if we have black line crossover by this time next week.
    It's weird how much the Labour one matches the 2017 trend line though, very creepy
    Not that weird. The initial 2017 trend that has been matched so far was nothing strange. Minor parties not really standing in seats get squeezed as people face reality and choose a side.

    What was really strange in 2017 hasn't happened yet:
    1: Labour squeezing the Tories in the final fortnight.
    2: Labour actually scored massively more than its poll line says.
    Assumption being the Labour vote is being understated again perhaps?

    The shy Labour effect?
    And perhaps also, after this year's EU elections (1st Brexit Party, 2nd LibDems, 3rd Labour, 4th Greens, 5th Tories), also a "treat what you tell pollsters as a protest vote" effect?

    I think far more voters respect the LibDems' "we're clear about Brexit: revoke it" policy than will actually vote for that party, which most people know means voting for a hung parliament.
  • I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

    CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself
    There's an Acol Road in West Hampsted near the Bridge Club, and I've often wondered if Acol was named after it.
    Yes, the eponymous bidding convention was devised at the Acol Bridge Club. I once wandered past it as a student. The trouble with wandering anywhere in Hampstead is most of it is uphill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acol#Origins
    I once played bridge for Cambridge University, partnering Tom Townsend. (Not because I'm a good bridge player, but because he was a friend of mine, it was the last game of the season, and his usual partner had exams.)

    When I confessed my Acol was pretty weak, he said don't worry we'll just play natural.

    Like all competitive bridge, the it was duplicate pairs, and when Tom announced we would use no bidding convention, and would just be playing natural, one of our opponent's hands shot up "tournament director! tournament director!". Our opponents refused to believe that the captain of the England under-21 team was playing natural.

    During the game, I bid on something, and our opponents doubled, and I redoubled. Again the hand flew up. "Tournament director! I demand to know what they meant by the redouble." And Tom said... "Hmmm... I think it means that he thinks we're going to make the contract."
    This might as well have been written in cyrillic russian for all i understood it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

    CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    Especially after offering everyone free broadband.
  • Some serious stuff hasn't made into this 'leak' i reckon.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Barnesian said:

    Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?

    The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂
    @Philip_Thompson
    Philip

    Could you have a look at my predictions by constituency and pick out one which you think should be definitely Tory and I have it as something else?

    I'll check my calculations and assumptions and share them with you.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
    Darlington is still Labour in the spreadsheet although it's on a knife-edge. That's one I think would probably go Conservative with the polls like they are.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Some serious stuff hasn't made into this 'leak' i reckon.
    Yeah, it's not in blowing socks off territory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    alb1on said:

    Brom said:

    Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!

    I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.

    Totnes is still very much on the table due to Wollaston's personal vote (regardless of marqueemark's attempts to deny it).
    While the word of a Tory canvasser can hardly be taken as gospel even accepting he does actually mention the bad reception being got too, how confident can we be that there is such a Wollaston personal vote?
    She did win an open primary.
    That was a long time ago now. I can believe she still has a personal vote, but the general rule on personal votes is they are not as big as people think.
    I agree, personal votes are just a few thousand at most, and some MPs have negative personal votes!
    It was a while ago, but I thought there was some data that showed they were a few *hundred* votes at best
    I think "a few hundred at best" is probably wrong. If you look at LibDem seats where a long term incumbent steps down, they often drop not a thousand votes in the next election or two, but sometime more than 10,000 votes, often well above what UNS would suggest.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself
    There's an Acol Road in West Hampsted near the Bridge Club, and I've often wondered if Acol was named after it.
    You would have freed up a lot of mental capacity if you’d checked wiki...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acol

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I'm with you on most of that. I'd certainly welcome the confiscation of golf courses - to be used for llama grazing. Trees densely planted on roundabouts, forcing drivers to slow down and look anxiously. All domestic animals to be set free. Cyclists to ride in the middle of the road, overtaking cars to use the gutter. A public education programme to convince the housewife that root vegetables don't need to be geometrically perfect to be edible.
    Arghhhh.....wouldn't it be wonderful to see our town and country golf courses populated by herds (??) or whatever groups of llamas are called....instead of what we see now..... herds (??) or whatever groups of white, old, Tory/ Brexiteer males driving around in buggies are called....
  • Milkshake tax....have the Commies not learned, you don't tax that stuff you give it away for free (or nearly free) like famous ice cream in Cuba.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?

    The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂
    @Philip_Thompson
    Philip

    Could you have a look at my predictions by constituency and pick out one which you think should be definitely Tory and I have it as something else?

    I'll check my calculations and assumptions and share them with you.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
    If it's okay, I'm having a look as well to see if I can spot anything.
    Excellent!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Andy_JS said:

    These opinion polls with growing Conservative leads seem broadly correct to me as a Lib Dem activist living in a Lab/Con marginal. It doesn't feel at all like 2017 out there. I think Labour are in for a thrashing. The poll showing my party on 11% maybe doesn't feel quite right but the broad picture from all of tonight's polls does.

    I think too many people from all parties have been scarred for life by 2017.

    Do you still think it was a good idea to choose Jo Swinson over someone like Layla Moran or Ed Davey? Jo Swinson doesn't seem to be making much impact on the campaign so far.
    She's having a hard time getting noticed. Layla Moran would have been much better at that, she has a much more interesting media personality. Didn't run, sadly.
    I'm not sure Layla would have been that great either. The LDs really need an election where they've got a dozen new and young MPs, one of which might distinguish themselves.
  • https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.
  • Barnesian said:

    Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?

    The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂
    @Philip_Thompson
    Philip

    Could you have a look at my predictions by constituency and pick out one which you think should be definitely Tory and I have it as something else?

    I'll check my calculations and assumptions and share them with you.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
    From an initial quick glance some interesting ones standing out based on the polling numbers quoted these all should easily fall under smaller swings.

    Alyn and Deeside
    Bassetlaw
    Briston NW
    Darlington
    Gower
    Rother Valley
    Weaver Vale

    All of these should fall on less than a 4% swing yet there's about a 5% swing and they haven't according to your spreadsheet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    Fake news, on twitter? :o
  • Prince Andrew's denials are crazy...

    Yes I stayed in a convicted paedos house (after he had been release from jail) for 4 days, because I had to tell him face to face I couldn't be his friend, but he wasn't really my friend and I only saw him for a dinner and a walk in the park. And yes I could have stayed in a hotel, but I might not have been able to catch up with him.

    And actually I was not really friends with him, but I was long time friends with his girlfriend, but I never ever been upstairs in her house.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited November 2019
    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

    Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.
  • Where does Labour manage to find these people? Honestly you begin to wonder whether they activity seek them out.
  • RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Thanks Rob.

    Be interesting to see if we have black line crossover by this time next week.
    It's weird how much the Labour one matches the 2017 trend line though, very creepy
    Not that weird. The initial 2017 trend that has been matched so far was nothing strange. Minor parties not really standing in seats get squeezed as people face reality and choose a side.

    What was really strange in 2017 hasn't happened yet:
    1: Labour squeezing the Tories in the final fortnight.
    2: Labour actually scored massively more than its poll line says.
    Assumption being the Labour vote is being understated again perhaps?

    The shy Labour effect?
    No that's not what I said.
  • Time for the daily Labour antisemitism story..
  • RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Thanks Rob.

    Be interesting to see if we have black line crossover by this time next week.
    It's weird how much the Labour one matches the 2017 trend line though, very creepy
    Not that weird. The initial 2017 trend that has been matched so far was nothing strange. Minor parties not really standing in seats get squeezed as people face reality and choose a side.

    What was really strange in 2017 hasn't happened yet:
    1: Labour squeezing the Tories in the final fortnight.
    2: Labour actually scored massively more than its poll line says.
    Assumption being the Labour vote is being understated again perhaps?

    The shy Labour effect?
    No that's not what I said.
    Please do clarify then, because I have obviously not understood it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself
    There's an Acol Road in West Hampsted near the Bridge Club, and I've often wondered if Acol was named after it.
    Yes, the eponymous bidding convention was devised at the Acol Bridge Club. I once wandered past it as a student. The trouble with wandering anywhere in Hampstead is most of it is uphill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acol#Origins
    I once played bridge for Cambridge University, partnering Tom Townsend. (Not because I'm a good bridge player, but because he was a friend of mine, it was the last game of the season, and his usual partner had exams.)

    When I confessed my Acol was pretty weak, he said don't worry we'll just play natural.

    Like all competitive bridge, the it was duplicate pairs, and when Tom announced we would use no bidding convention, and would just be playing natural, one of our opponent's hands shot up "tournament director! tournament director!". Our opponents refused to believe that the captain of the England under-21 team was playing natural.

    During the game, I bid on something, and our opponents doubled, and I redoubled. Again the hand flew up. "Tournament director! I demand to know what they meant by the redouble." And Tom said... "Hmmm... I think it means that he thinks we're going to make the contract."
    I’ve nearly been kicked by many a partner for going off piste and going for it as if I were playing poker, just to get the other pair in too deep. Were I American, I’d have been shot by now.
  • https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    Its amazing that this "women" appears to know everything about everything that is going on in the world, despite never leaving her home in Swindon.
  • Time for the daily Labour antisemitism story..
    I am surprised the media can ration it to one a day given the seeming state of Labour and its selected candidates.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    kle4 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'
    I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.

    I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.
    They don't have an image problem, they have a dietary problem. A vegan diet is not a healthy diet - it is objectively not possible to get the nutrition needed for health on a vegan diet, which is why certain dietary supplements are required. It's abysmal.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.
    I made it three. Guildford, Portsmouth South and Montgomeryshire. But even if it were six, it's not a lot for a 6% increase in national share and lead over Labour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

    Weak no trump goes without saying
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

    Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.
    If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.
  • Robert, are there any plans for GE? How about a special discord channel or something so we can live chat how we are going to escape the country as it is revealed the commies have won the GE?
  • rcs1000 said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

    Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.
    If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.
    Judging by this morning's mass reset of passwords by admin, maybe that has been tried :lol:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Isn't this normally the time in the evening when Justin pops up and tells us they are actually good polls for Labour?

    The Barnesian model took over that role this year. Tonights polls mean a minority government. 😂
    @Philip_Thompson
    Philip

    Could you have a look at my predictions by constituency and pick out one which you think should be definitely Tory and I have it as something else?

    I'll check my calculations and assumptions and share them with you.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
    From an initial quick glance some interesting ones standing out based on the polling numbers quoted these all should easily fall under smaller swings.

    Alyn and Deeside
    Bassetlaw
    Briston NW
    Darlington
    Gower
    Rother Valley
    Weaver Vale

    All of these should fall on less than a 4% swing yet there's about a 5% swing and they haven't according to your spreadsheet.
    OK Thanks. I'll pick one or two of these and report back.
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I'm with you on most of that. I'd certainly welcome the confiscation of golf courses - to be used for llama grazing. Trees densely planted on roundabouts, forcing drivers to slow down and look anxiously. All domestic animals to be set free. Cyclists to ride in the middle of the road, overtaking cars to use the gutter. A public education programme to convince the housewife that root vegetables don't need to be geometrically perfect to be edible.
    Arghhhh.....wouldn't it be wonderful to see our town and country golf courses populated by herds (??) or whatever groups of llamas are called....instead of what we see now..... herds (??) or whatever groups of white, old, Tory/ Brexiteer males driving around in buggies are called....
    Poetry has to go. Pretentious garbage....

    Chewing gum / bubble gum should be made illegal

    Brassicas and other cruciferous vegetables should no longer be considered as food
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    Prince Andrew - I definitely remember I wasn't there nearly 20 years ago, as I was in Pizza Express in Woking.

    Emily - How do you remember that

    Prince Andrew - One definitely remembers a visit to Woking and especially to Pizza Express. It is not something I would forget.

    Seems a bit harsh on Woking and Pizza Express.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    kle4 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'
    I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.

    I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.
    They don't have an image problem, they have a dietary problem. A vegan diet is not a healthy diet - it is objectively not possible to get the nutrition needed for health on a vegan diet, which is why certain dietary supplements are required. It's abysmal.
    "Objectively not possible" is not correct. It is *harder* with a vegan diet. But it is by no means impossible.

    Which particular nutrients do you think are impossible with a vegan diet.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Some serious stuff hasn't made into this 'leak' i reckon.
    Why on Earth would they scrap academies and free schools when school ratings have improved so much under them?
  • Evening all.

    As I've been saying for a while: Labour prioritising everything is Labour prioritising nothing, leaving voters unimpressed.

    Why on earth the LibDems aren't laying in to Labour on this is anyone's guess. It's an ideal opportunity for them, which they are spectacularly missing.

    Meanwhile Boris just needs to do nothing very much.
  • Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

    Weak no trump goes without saying
    What about Stayman? Yes or no?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Still room for LAB overall majority!

    Goodnight
  • https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    Its amazing that this "women" appears to know everything about everything that is going on in the world, despite never leaving her home in Swindon.
    To be fair though, dentistry is an oddity in the NHS public health situation. I can see how Lab might feel it is unfinished business.

    On the other hand, they introduced prescription charges. Bevan resigned.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    rcs1000 said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

    Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.
    If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.
    Judging by this morning's mass reset of passwords by admin, maybe that has been tried :lol:
    Pb.com: for the stupid and boring and persistent.....
  • RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    "Now these points of data make a beautiful line
    And we're out of beta, we're releasing on time..."
  • RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Thanks Rob.

    Be interesting to see if we have black line crossover by this time next week.
    It's weird how much the Labour one matches the 2017 trend line though, very creepy
    Not that weird. The initial 2017 trend that has been matched so far was nothing strange. Minor parties not really standing in seats get squeezed as people face reality and choose a side.

    What was really strange in 2017 hasn't happened yet:
    1: Labour squeezing the Tories in the final fortnight.
    2: Labour actually scored massively more than its poll line says.
    Assumption being the Labour vote is being understated again perhaps?

    The shy Labour effect?
    No that's not what I said.
    Please do clarify then, because I have obviously not understood it.
    Labour had a perfect storm last time.

    Squeezing minor parties
    Then squeezing the Tories after May ran an awful campaign with the dementia tax
    Then beating the polls [which in part is probably due to them still moving post dementia tax]

    Just because the minor parties have been squeezed now does not mean the rest will repeat itself.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Charles said:

    History doesn't repeat itself.

    Corbyn is toxic.

    UK voters are not marxists

    UK voters may not always be interested in politics but they aren't fools and they arent gullible.

    The polls are just showing what common sense and daily interaction suggest.

    That's all you need to know.....

    BasicBridge.. How is it if you put the figures into ACOL, or Italian Blue Club?
    How about you tell me what "ACOL" and "Italian Blue Club"actually mean?
    They are basic bridge bidding methodologies...

    I always preferred Blackwood and Sliding Gerber myself

    Weak no trump goes without saying
    What about Stayman? Yes or no?
    I already struggle with 3 conventions!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Gabs3 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    Yes, I think the Tories have a very inefficient vote this time. Combined with Labour having a massobe GOTV operation, I think the seat numbers will be close.
    Should the Conservatives end up with a vote share something like 2017, whilst Labour ends up somewhere close to 30% (i.e. shedding about a quarter of its entire vote from last time,) then it's hard to see how the reds and blues somehow end up close to parity in terms of number of MPs. It would require at least one, and probably both, main parties to magically become more popular where they have sitting MPs and less popular where they do not at the same time. With said trend being more exaggerated amongst the Conservative vote in order to bring the number of Tory seats down a smidgen.

    Regardless of the limited effects of non-uniform swing and tactical voting, the Con-Lab seat gap ought, broadly speaking, to expand or contract in line with the differential in vote share. The efficiency or otherwise of that vote share can only move the seat totals so far.

    If the final result is something like Con 40, Lab 30, the Conservatives will win convincingly.
  • LibDems are putting Swinson everywhere in their campaign. So why is her Twitter account so quiet?
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63
    edited November 2019

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.
    I made it three. Guildford, Portsmouth South and Montgomeryshire. But even if it were six, it's not a lot for a 6% increase in national share and lead over Labour.
    I don't see how that works. If they are taking (say) 10% off the Tories and 5% off Labour every Tory/Lab marginal with a 5% majority or less would be lost.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Nice charts (well, nicely presented :smile:)
    Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!
    You should try Seaborn.
  • Gabs3 said:

    Some serious stuff hasn't made into this 'leak' i reckon.
    Why on Earth would they scrap academies and free schools when school ratings have improved so much under them?
    If you recall the left-wing / communist govts of Eastern Europe and the USSR, ideology trumped facts every time no matter how relevant the facts or how stupid the ideology

    Labour's Marxists are the same breed of cat
  • Gabs3 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    Yes, I think the Tories have a very inefficient vote this time. Combined with Labour having a massobe GOTV operation, I think the seat numbers will be close.
    Should the Conservatives end up with a vote share something like 2017, whilst Labour ends up somewhere close to 30% (i.e. shedding about a quarter of its entire vote from last time,) then it's hard to see how the reds and blues somehow end up close to parity in terms of number of MPs. It would require at least one, and probably both, main parties to magically become more popular where they have sitting MPs and less popular where they do not at the same time. With said trend being more exaggerated amongst the Conservative vote in order to bring the number of Tory seats down a smidgen.

    Regardless of the limited effects of non-uniform swing and tactical voting, the Con-Lab seat gap ought, broadly speaking, to expand or contract in line with the differential in vote share. The efficiency or otherwise of that vote share can only move the seat totals so far.

    If the final result is something like Con 40, Lab 30, the Conservatives will win convincingly.
    I think that's a feasible final result - but if Labour is getting closer to 35 in the polling average (I feel the Tories really won't poll on average any higher than last time at 43), it's going to get closer and closer.

    I still think it's all to play for - but the next two weeks are going to be the really important ones.
  • I don't know why, but I am about to subject myself to the 2nd episode of the Mandalorian....its only 30mins long. Can't Disney even make 1hr episodes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Arthur said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
    How about there is already insufficient capacity in the NHS dental system and it would be better to use the funds to expand if
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Nice charts (well, nicely presented :smile:)
    Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!
    You should try Seaborn.
    I'm getting too old to learn a new language. :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Nice charts (well, nicely presented :smile:)
    Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!
    You should try Seaborn.
    I'm getting too old to learn a new language. :p
    It isn't. Its just a wrapper around Matplotlib, that makes sexier charts.

    https://seaborn.pydata.org/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    LibDems are putting Swinson everywhere in their campaign. So why is her Twitter account so quiet?

    I don't know who's running the LD campaign but they're not doing a very good job. The party was level with Labour in the polls at the end of September.
  • Arthur said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
    Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

    Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

    Broadband or teeth?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Andy_JS said:

    LibDems are putting Swinson everywhere in their campaign. So why is her Twitter account so quiet?

    I don't know who's running the LD campaign but they're not doing a very good job. The party was level with Labour in the polls at the end of September.
    Part of that will just be FPTP squeeze - people are rarely super optimistic, and can see Labour are the most viable anti-Tory option in most places - and we all know its hard for them to get media time, but the last week they've been invisible, and they had some decent coverage to start with but didn't seem to get much traction from it. Shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    A milkshake tax not getting to be popular, especially with younger votes and at least it gives you calcium
  • Arthur said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
    Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

    Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

    Broadband or teeth?
    We are going to have it all. Work half the week, free everything all paid for by the billionaires.
  • rcs1000 said:

    tyson said:

    Anyway....the manifesto policies I would like to see added-
    -ban cruises (number 1 policy)- they are fucking hideous- seeing a bunch of Tory geriatrics squander the world's precious resources whilst the world is burning is just disgusting
    - ban golf and F1- I do like playing golf, but it is a shocking waste of resources...F1 (sorry MorrisDancer) is just disgraceful
    -ban hunting and murdering of sentient mammals by humans
    -ban humans killing and eating anything that would in normal circumstances run away and like to live
    -ban the keeping of pet animals- this saddens me, but like golf, an element of self sacrifice is required
    -ban private cars enough said
    -people are only allowed three of anything- shoes, coats, pyjamas and the like (OK- ten pairs of undies and socks for lazy people like myself)
    -ban shops- shocking waste of resources
    -loads of tree planting


    Culturally- we are allowed to keep football, tennis, music, dancing and painting- the rest goes sadly.....

    As radical as my manifesto seems now...it is probably just way ahead of it's time....we need to move on a few selfish, Tory inclined generations.....

    I am very glad to say that is a manifesto that will never get anywhere near being acted upon.

    Edit: Though I would happily ban golf just because it is stupid and boring.
    If we were going to ban stupid and boring things, we'd lose half the posters from this site.
    Judging by this morning's mass reset of passwords by admin, maybe that has been tried :lol:
    Pb.com: for the stupid and boring and persistent.....
    :heartbreak: I was one who persistently reset my login...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Not exactly sure of the dates of two of the polls, but the recent trend is clear:

    https://imgur.com/W7ghBvl

    Nice charts (well, nicely presented :smile:)
    Thanks - nothing special beyond matplotlib in python!
    You should try Seaborn.
    I'm getting too old to learn a new language. :p
    It isn't. Its just a wrapper around Matplotlib, that makes sexier charts.

    https://seaborn.pydata.org/
    Ooo! I'm a big fan of functional, but maybe it's time to give sexy a go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I don't know why, but I am about to subject myself to the 2nd episode of the Mandalorian....its only 30mins long. Can't Disney even make 1hr episodes.

    Always worth giving something 3-4 episodes, to get past teething issues. Heck, the entire first season of some things are not good, like Parks and Recreation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Some dire polling for Labour and the Lib Dems are also sinking in the Deltapoll.

    Hard to see how things might change drastically, the Tory manifesto is going to be one which will be designed to not be controversial.

    I think what will really alarm Labour is that some dreadful headlines for the Tories in terms of the NHS have done zip to hurt them , the two polls which look bearable haven’t yet taken fully into account the BP standing down in the Tory seats , I think those with that will have shown leads around 10 %.

    Given the huge Tory leads it’s a shame now that Johnson sees fit to use the anti-migrant card.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Arthur said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
    Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

    Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

    Broadband or teeth?
    We are going to have it all. Work half the week, free everything all paid for by the billionaires.
    About those billionaires...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited November 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    It would mean that the Conservatives were able to defend their 2017 seats against the LibDems and SNP.

    And its those losses to the LibDems and SNP which are assumed to stop the Conservatives winning a majority.
  • Gabs3 said:

    Some serious stuff hasn't made into this 'leak' i reckon.
    Why on Earth would they scrap academies and free schools when school ratings have improved so much under them?
    If you recall the left-wing / communist govts of Eastern Europe and the USSR, ideology trumped facts every time no matter how relevant the facts or how stupid the ideology

    Labour's Marxists are the same breed of cat
    If you want to see what the USSR was like, I recently stumbled across this guy on Youtube (Channel is called something like bald and broke). He is English, but fluent Russian speaker and travels around the states that make up the USSR and shows what life is like. Put it is way, I doubt 99% of the UK population would fancy it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    I don't know why, but I am about to subject myself to the 2nd episode of the Mandalorian....its only 30mins long. Can't Disney even make 1hr episodes.

    Always worth giving something 3-4 episodes, to get past teething issues. Heck, the entire first season of some things are not good, like Parks and Recreation.
    and Deep Space Nine (excluding Duet)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Where does Labour manage to find these people? Honestly you begin to wonder whether they activity seek them out.
    They don't have to. The current Labour leadership attracts cranks like flies to shit.

    And, of course, now these candidates have been nominated they can't replace them. Plaid Cymru will be delighted.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    Andy_JS said:

    Disparities in the polls today range from +8 to +17 Tory Lead.....dont know what to make of this

    The average of the polls is about 13%.
    One day I will have to write an article about why averaging polls is a bad idea. Especially if (as I suspect) the distribution is bimodal. Either one extreme is correct, or the other, but not both.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    RobD said:

    I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

    CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    Especially after offering everyone free broadband.
    I think the broadband policy will turn out to be the moment Labour lost the election...
  • Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.
    I made it three. Guildford, Portsmouth South and Montgomeryshire. But even if it were six, it's not a lot for a 6% increase in national share and lead over Labour.
    Do you really think the Conservatives would lose a 26.6% majority in Montgomeryshire if TBP stood. ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    RobD said:

    Arthur said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
    Their tax plans don't cover the myriad promises?

    Socialism is about priorities. So which of the n number of promises in last week will come first?

    Broadband or teeth?
    We are going to have it all. Work half the week, free everything all paid for by the billionaires.
    About those billionaires...
    The ones soon to be waving from foreign lands?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Are shy LDs a thing?

    I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.

    Something doesn’t smell right.

    Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.
    LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.
    That bullshit is on the march though.

    I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
    My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'
    I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.

    I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.
    They don't have an image problem, they have a dietary problem. A vegan diet is not a healthy diet - it is objectively not possible to get the nutrition needed for health on a vegan diet, which is why certain dietary supplements are required. It's abysmal.
    "Objectively not possible" is not correct. It is *harder* with a vegan diet. But it is by no means impossible.

    Which particular nutrients do you think are impossible with a vegan diet.
    Vitamin B12. Vitamin D. Omega 3.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is a very simple thought experiment.

    Assume that BXP had a 12% share in every constituency.

    Then assume they stood down in all the Tory constituencies (say half of the total) and the Brexit vote transferred to the Tories.

    The national Brexit vote would drop to 6%.
    The national Tory vote would increase by 6%.
    But the Tories would not gain a single seat from Labour. Their votes would pile up in their own constituencies.
    They might avoid losing a handful of seats to LD but that's it.

    The difference between the Brexit party standing and not must surely be more than a few LD seats? If they take 2/3rds of their vote from the Tories, that would put at risk any seat with a majority of less than a few thousand.
    I made it three. Guildford, Portsmouth South and Montgomeryshire. But even if it were six, it's not a lot for a 6% increase in national share and lead over Labour.
    Do you really think the Conservatives would lose a 26.6% majority in Montgomeryshire if TBP stood. ?
    Good point - UKIP got 10% in 2015, and the Brexit party aren't doing any better than them.
  • Arthur said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1195790552492642305

    No it wont. Free extraction dentistry would. But Lab aren't proposing that unless I have missed it.

    It wouldn't put an end to it, but it would reduce it. There again, perhaps Labour will abolish NHS dental fees altogether. Nye Bevan lives again! (As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.) Interesting that Labour are delaying the release of the manifesto until Thursday, five days after it was signed off and two days after the first Corbyn-Johnson debate. Corbyn can then announce a surprise manifesto promise or two on live TV, straight into Johnson's face - ouch. What argument could Johnson (or the BDA for that matter) advance against a Labour proposal to make NHS dental care, eye tests and spectacles all free at the point of delivery, beginning 13 December? Labour can win this.
    As most working class people over about 50 know, the introduction of dental charges was one of the reasons Bevan cited when he resigned.

    I don't think I've ever heard a working class person of any age mention Nye Bevan.
  • GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    I’m surprised the polls haven’t been more favourable for Labour tonight.

    CCHQ must be breathing a sigh of relief.

    Especially after offering everyone free broadband.
    I think the broadband policy will turn out to be the moment Labour lost the election...
    As a policy, it just seems so ... frivolous. Tens of billion of pounds to nationalise something that already works well in the private sector and which most people already have? It must have looked like a clever wheeze to McDonnell, but it makes Labour look fundamentally unserious, like the Pirate Party.
  • So what he's saying is it is actually going to be even more "radical"?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited November 2019
    I do think the estimated turnouts are very pessimistic.

    That said when people dont like polls they usually say they dont matter or have impact, so even if the weighting is bad it leads to no actual advantage.
  • twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1195850083901878272

    This seems to be Labour "attack" line to take this evening. Its all about the wrong weightings.
This discussion has been closed.