politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are wors
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Philip_Thompson said:
I wonder whether there's an element of some who were Remainers giving up on stopping Brexit and thinking "fuck it, it was voted for afterall and now its going to happen so may as well get on with it".Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
That’s possible.
If the only way to resolve Brexit is to just get it done (because Revoke ain’t going nowhere) then they may be thinking we may as well give Johnson a decent mandate to wrap it up in a year or so and move on.
Anything but the gridlock of the last 2 years.0 -
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344
Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.
I'm not going to kindle the fragile flame of hope, mind you. It is bound to be snuffed out.0 -
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.0 -
The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.Andy_JS said:
They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
Which is wrong?0 -
LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.0 -
Are don't knows making a break for Johnson?
Still one month out - but this is the first time I've thought "shit"0 -
Corbyn's spending promises are counter-productive.another_richard said:
There's a law of diminishing returns regarding spending promises.ydoethur said:IS it possible that the more Corbyn promises, the more people disbelieve him given they are clearly nonsensical and purely designed to buy votes, and turn away from Labour as a result?
Otherwise I am struggling to make sense of these polls.
BT has one of the largest workforces in the UK. Yesterday lost a few more Labour votes...1 -
I wonder if the Lib Dems standing down for the greens has caused some of the wet Tory vote to head back to Johnson.
I noted that Ed Davey was striking a dry economic tone today, presumably to tempt some of them back ?0 -
Yougov!!!!!!!!!!0
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So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points0 -
Or Corbyn wanted to make the election not about Brexit, he has, he would have been better sticking to Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
I wonder whether there's an element of some who were Remainers giving up on stopping Brexit and thinking "fuck it, it was voted for afterall and now its going to happen so may as well get on with it".Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.0 -
"The only way is up"DavidL said:
Its a shocker for the Great British public as well. How on earth can Corbyn's approval rating be rising, even from spectacularly low levels?humbugger said:
That's a shocker for Swinson.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So we have polls tonight with the Tories leading by 15, 16 and 17%. Its a kind of herding I suppose but nowhere near where I expected.0
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Has Cummings got a knighthood yet?0
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nunu2 has miscalculated the British voter. Most people want to respect the referendum. I voted remain and even i believe we should leave.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
"Unilateral revocation" has been a catastrophic error for the LDs.1 -
Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.0 -
Apparently BMG haven't yet updated for candidates, which would explain why they're still at BXP 9%.1
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Skeptical of polls though I am, the funniest ones are where there's been no change at all despite what seem like major moments that should shift things.0
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I think this is Jo Swinson’s biggest strategic problem.Black_Rook said:
The Remain Alliance isn't a big enough thing to have depressed the Lib Dem vote nationwide. But you may well have a point about distressed centre-right soft Remain voters dumping them when they see who they've been treating with.ydoethur said:
Another thought is, with the Liberal Democrats standing down in several seats, it is possible that their voters in those seats are drifting to the Tories. That would be ironic, but it would also be predictable given the kind of voters the Oranges have been collecting recently. These are people who would vote Liberal Democrat but not vote Green. If they wanted to vote Green, they would already have done so.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
And it may have hit their standing and credibility in other seats as well. Now it could have concentrated minds of those with money or sense that to stop Corbyn, Johnson is the only game in town.
I will admit my view may be tinged by the fact this is the dilemma I am wrestling with at the moment.
The Green Party at least is to the left of Labour. If the Lib Dems will get into bed with the Greens just to try to optimise the Remain vote, it is very easy to believe that they would prop up a Corbyn Government in exchange for a second referendum.
In going all-out on Revoke she’s made her red-line that she’d never work with Corbyn incredible.
No-one believes her.1 -
Huh?basicbridge said:
nunu2 has miscalculated the British voter. Most people want to respect the referendum. I voted remain and even i believe we should leave.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
"Unilateral revocation" has been a catastrophic error for the LDs.
I'm agreeing with you.1 -
Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344
Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.
Barensian model might just give the Tories a majority of 1 on those numbers...0 -
I always wonder how much people notice that sort of thing. But if any voters are going to notice, it's those that might vote Lib Dem. They're much more likely to be watching the news, going on newspaper websites, etc.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the Lib Dems standing down for the greens has caused some of the wet Tory vote to head back to Johnson.
I noted that Ed Davey was striking a dry economic tone today, presumably to tempt some of them back ?0 -
Tory near miss in Bootle! 😂0
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On these polls there is no way the LibDems are taking anywhere with a 10k Conservative majority.Brom said:Bit rich of the Guardian to say all 3 constituency polls are tight. Fair to say even if Finchley isn’t on the money that Luciana Berger is a gonner. Kensington is a real 3 way marginal if Labour have a surge and then Wimbledon looks 50/50 really, though I suppose if Boris was to lose any MP then Hammond would be near the top of the list!
I think at this stage Lib Dem potential England gains from the Tories look like St Albans, Richmond, Guildford, South Cambs, Putney, Lewes, Winchester, Cheltenham. Wokingham, Finchley and Totnes are probably off the table but there are bound to be a few others I’ve overlooked like Hazel Grove or Wells. But primarily they are in the South East and the ceiling looks like 10-12.1 -
The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points1 -
I hate canvassing.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.
Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.0 -
Yep, all those clever games of seizing the order paper, the Benn Act. Letwin's amendment and the complete refusal to back a sensible compromise of a deal such as May provided look properly Letwin right now.Casino_Royale said:Philip_Thompson said:
I wonder whether there's an element of some who were Remainers giving up on stopping Brexit and thinking "fuck it, it was voted for afterall and now its going to happen so may as well get on with it".Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
That’s possible.
If the only way to resolve Brexit is to just get it done (because Revoke ain’t going nowhere) then they may be thinking we may as well give Johnson a decent mandate to wrap it up in a year or so and move on.
Anything but the gridlock of the last 2 years.
Still early days of course.1 -
Im calling you as a troll...Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344
Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.
I'm not going to kindle the fragile flame of hope, mind you. It is bound to be snuffed out.0 -
Pulpstar said:
People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.1 -
Fair point. Very.kle4 said:
The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points
But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...0 -
Both could be right.Casino_Royale said:
The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.Andy_JS said:
They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
Which is wrong?
If the Lib Dems are doing rather well in and around London but are failing to make progress (or possibly even going backwards) in their old heartland down in the West Country, then they could easily poll in the low teens and still make net gains. But probably not that many.
There are only a finite number of seats available where the Lib Dems have the resources to mount a serious challenge and where there is a substantial Remain majority to call upon. Moreover, even in the three constituency polls from earlier tonight, we should note that the Conservatives have leads in all of them.0 -
I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.0 -
You cant compare an area of relative strength for Labour and extrapolate that to the rest of the country.Casino_Royale said:
The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.Andy_JS said:
They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
Which is wrong?0 -
2017 is both the Tory blessing and curse. A mistrust of the polls leads to continual worrying and yet also avoids complacency. That goes for voters as well as politicians.FrancisUrquhart said:
I guess the concern is people do a 2017 again and think well I either want to stop a big majority and / or it is safe to vote differently especially as I think my local candidate is actually ok.Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
If things are going well I suspect they will be leaning on the Tory press to avoid publishing any positive Tory/Lab marginal constituency polling.0 -
That bullshit is on the march though.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.0 -
The tories will be nervous. Rightly.CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
But Labour are in deep deep trouble. Even you know that.,.,,..0 -
I think it is mostly about certainty to vote.CorrectHorseBattery said:Are don't knows making a break for Johnson?
Still one month out - but this is the first time I've thought "shit"0 -
So PB Tories, would you take the Comres numbers right now?0
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Andy_JS said:
Has Cummings got a knighthood yet?
Has Cummings wargamed this?0 -
They could be doing very badly indeed in the seats they're not targeting.Casino_Royale said:
The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.Andy_JS said:
They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
Which is wrong?0 -
After 2017 the Tories will not assume this is in the bag. We've not had the Tory manifesto yet.CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.1 -
Seems like people who were saying they'd vote Brexit Party just wanted Brexit after all. And Boris is the only Brexit game in town.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344
Yep. Turns out ComRes is tonight's outlier after all.
I'm not going to kindle the fragile flame of hope, mind you. It is bound to be snuffed out.0 -
0
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Their reliance on polling being just completely wrong, or a second Corbyn surge, is definitely a weakness - they shouldn't need to rely on those things, and so heavily to boot. But just as the Labour core will not believe these polls as just being too bad to believe, I wonder about those scarred Tories who won't believe it as too good to believe.basicbridge said:
Fair point. Very.kle4 said:
The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points
But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
The difference, of course, is that the latter have reason to try harder as a result, the former get complacent. We shall see.0 -
LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.Casino_Royale said:
I hate canvassing.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.
Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...1 -
You have more of a steak in that?Casino_Royale said:
That bullshit is on the march though.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
You don't want your eating habits given the chop?
Compulsory vegetarianism would be a rasher move?
Good night.1 -
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.0 -
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.0 -
The LDs aren’t offering anything to seriously tempt centre-right voters, whilst Swinson loves the identity politics and gives the impression she’d sell her own mother to Satan (Corbyn) to stop Brexit if that’s what it took.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the Lib Dems standing down for the greens has caused some of the wet Tory vote to head back to Johnson.
I noted that Ed Davey was striking a dry economic tone today, presumably to tempt some of them back ?
Meanwhile, some Remainer Tories now sense that Boris might actually get a fairly close relationship with the EU if he wins well and then govern from the centre.1 -
oh get a grip...Black_Rook said:
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.0 -
Seems probable. While they don’t want Labour to completely dominate the Tories will be happy if Labour steal the headlines 4 days of the week with some ludicrous spending promises that the level headed electorate deem unreasonable. Away from twitter I get the impression the broadband promise was met with a mixed response which only got worse when the industry experts dismissed Labour costings.felix said:
The polling message for the Tories is to keep quiet and let Labour kick themselves to death on crackpot broadband and freedom of movement bollocks.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
Tories most seats, movement from 1.07/1.08 to 1.06/1.070
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Lessons learned from 2017, the pressure on Corbyn will be kept up.CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.0 -
Ironically what those who want a relatively soft Brexit don’t want is Boris beholden to the EPG, so a small majority would be worse.2
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Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.0 -
Flavible computes the beautiful scenario on the yougov of Lavery losing Wansbeck2
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My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'Casino_Royale said:
That bullshit is on the march though.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.3 -
The higher the Tory lead the more nervous they should be.kle4 said:
Their reliance on polling being just completely wrong, or a second Corbyn surge, is definitely a weakness - they shouldn't need to rely on those things, and so heavily to boot. But just as the Labour core will not believe these polls as just being too bad to believe, I wonder about those scarred Tories who won't believe it as too good to believe.basicbridge said:
Fair point. Very.kle4 said:
The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points
But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
The difference, of course, is that the latter have reason to try harder as a result, the former get complacent. We shall see.
But unlike last time defectors arent voting Labour...1 -
It looks like Labour's mad Broadband policy might have been a moment of calirity for the electorate... But not in the way Labour were hoping!
0 -
Yes. It's easy to forget that in vote share the LDs did worse in 2017 than 2015, as hard as that is to believe, but they targeted pretty well considering that very low vote share. With an increase into the low teens I assume there'll be a bit more inefficiency, but without sactificing that efficiency entirely they could punch above their weight in seats vs what you'd expect from national vote share. Granted that will likely be well down on their optimistic hopes, but I think bad night or not we'll see some spectacular LD results crop up. Where people are going for them, they are going for them in a big way. Which is good, as they will need that.Andy_JS said:
They could be doing very badly indeed in the seats they're not targeting.Casino_Royale said:
The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.Andy_JS said:
They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
Which is wrong?0 -
I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Voters arent idiots,GIN1138 said:It looks like Labour's mad Broadband policy might have been a moment of calirity for the electorate... But not in the way Labour were hoping!
Unlike Corbyn.1 -
I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.TheScreamingEagles said:
My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'Casino_Royale said:
That bullshit is on the march though.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.0 -
DARE TO DREAM etc.wooliedyed said:Flavible computes the beautiful scenario on the yougov of Lavery losing Wansbeck
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If by next week there is continued Tory surge, it's time to concede I've got this deeply wrong, I think.humbugger said:
Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.0 -
So Yougov are basically saying that 17% actually understates the Tory lead where it actually matters? I'd really love this to be true but jeez...CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.0 -
In seats with a majority under 10,000 Tories lead by 20 points
Con 45%
Lab 25%
Is that Tory majority under 10,000 or both ways ?1 -
Wow.
Switch off (of PB) for a couple of hours to watch Strictly and by the time I come back the Tories have doubled their lead and won a landslide. What happened there?0 -
I upset a vegan friend of mine recently, she was recently lecturing me on the evils of eating meat as she was feeding her dog some meat.kle4 said:
I think Sarah Palin said the same thing once.TheScreamingEagles said:
My argument, 'If we're not meant to eat animals, why are they made out of meat?'Casino_Royale said:
That bullshit is on the march though.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....how do you know somebody is a vegan....they will tell...again and again and again.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shy Lib-Dems must be in the same category as vegans who keep quiet about it or Oxbridge graduates who aren’t desperate to tell you which college we went to.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I think I care more about defending meat than I do Leaving the EU.
I'm sure most vegans are very nice people, but they do have an image problem, as I find a lot vegetarians joke about vegans as well.
She had no counter argument when I said 'Eating meat is natural, and that she wants to deny me the same rights she gives her dog.'
That said vegans are opposed to Hawaiian pizzas, so they aren't all bad.1 -
Indeed. We shall see.kle4 said:
Their reliance on polling being just completely wrong, or a second Corbyn surge, is definitely a weakness - they shouldn't need to rely on those things, and so heavily to boot. But just as the Labour core will not believe these polls as just being too bad to believe, I wonder about those scarred Tories who won't believe it as too good to believe.basicbridge said:
Fair point. Very.kle4 said:
The chance of triumphalism increases - it will be interesting to see how disciplined/nervous the Tories will be in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points
But Labour are in deep deep trouble, whatever...
The difference, of course, is that the latter have reason to try harder as a result, the former get complacent. We shall see.
But the tories simply arent going to lose the number of seats that the idiot London-centric punditry think they will in the regions...
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Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.Casino_Royale said:Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.0 -
TIG in particular probably makes the case for the Yorkshire Party. However unreasiltic their ambitions, if they've stood that many and the rump of the Tiggers get more prominence than them, it's not very fair.Philip_Thompson said:
I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?TheScreamingEagles said:
I seem to recall 2015 (or possibly 2017) one paper put up a front page of all main party leaders, and included the Women's Equality Party of all parties, when I don't remember people like the TUSC getting that in 2015, or English Democrat or CISTA.0 -
Or the SDPs 19 and Liberals 18. The CPA are also running 25 or soPhilip_Thompson said:
I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I predict another polling inquiry....DavidL said:
So Yougov are basically saying that 17% actually understates the Tory lead where it actually matters? I'd really love this to be true but jeez...CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.0 -
I hope Boris wins but I think your Tory 35 Labour 33 prediction is based purely on your best case scenario of a Labour coalition government rather than having any basis of reality. For a start with BXP standing down where on earth does the rest of the leave vote go if the Tories only hit 35?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If by next week there is continued Tory surge, it's time to concede I've got this deeply wrong, I think.humbugger said:
Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.0 -
2017, 2017, 2017, 2017...basicbridge said:
oh get a grip...Black_Rook said:
On the one hand, the rabbits Labour has been pulling out of the hat don't appear to have had the desired effect. What more are they keeping in reserve? More free everything?CorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
On the other hand, I'll be afraid of 2017 redux until it can be definitively proven not to have happened. And a "Corbyn can't win so it's safe to go home" narrative amongst wavering Labour voters (whom one suspects are constantly looking for excuses to revert to type) is certainly to be feared.0 -
True - it could get a whole lot worse for themCorrectHorseBattery said:I wonder if the Tories assume they have this in the bag, whether don't knows will go to Labour again, assuming Corbyn can't win.
Can anyone compare to 2017 in terms of trend - where does this put us?
If this was happening next week I might be really very concerned but we still haven't had a Labour manifesto yet.
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You've got it deeply wrong.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If by next week there is continued Tory surge, it's time to concede I've got this deeply wrong, I think.humbugger said:
Starting to sound a bit desperate now. However, there's a long way to go.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.
But fair play for admitting it.0 -
You're forgetting Opinium - 16 pointsCorrectHorseBattery said:So:
BMG - 8 points
YouGov - 17 points
ComRes - 8 points
Deltapoll - 15 points
Forget Corbyn, mate, he's a clapped-out loser who's being found out as we speak!0 -
Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.Casino_Royale said:Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.0 -
I agree with your analysis.kle4 said:
Yes. It's easy to forget that in vote share the LDs did worse in 2017 than 2015, as hard as that is to believe, but they targeted pretty well considering that very low vote share. With an increase into the low teens I assume there'll be a bit more inefficiency, but without sactificing that efficiency entirely they could punch above their weight in seats vs what you'd expect from national vote share. Granted that will likely be well down on their optimistic hopes, but I think bad night or not we'll see some spectacular LD results crop up. Where people are going for them, they are going for them in a big way. Which is good, as they will need that.Andy_JS said:
They could be doing very badly indeed in the seats they're not targeting.Casino_Royale said:
The constituency polling smells like they should really be on 17-19% nationally.Andy_JS said:
They seem to be doing pretty well in the constituency polling, which is at least something.Casino_Royale said:
They need to do better IMO.Andy_JS said:Why are the LDs running such an awful campaign? Jo Swinson seems to be invisible. I'm disappointed because I thought they might have put up a better fight against the Tories, given that Labour have an unelectable leader IMO.
Otherwise the risk is Remainers sniff out that they have no choice but to rally round Corbyn’s Labour.
Which is wrong?
Take a seat like West Bromwich West. Last time the LDs got 333 votes or 0.9%. It could be they haven't improved at all in that type of seat. (Difficult to to believe they could do worse).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bromwich_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
LOL! 😂😂😂FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195807768667705344
Barensian model might just give the Tories a majority of 1 on those numbers...1 -
Ahem...TheScreamingEagles said:That said vegans are opposed to Hawaiian pizzas, so they aren't all bad.
https://lovingitvegan.com/thin-crust-hawaiian-vegan-pizza/0 -
I’ve been very bullish on SCons since Day One.basicbridge said:
LDs will do decently in the prosperous outer ring of London. But it wont be enough.Casino_Royale said:
I hate canvassing.nunu2 said:
Go out and canvass and then you'll see.Casino_Royale said:Are shy LDs a thing?
I really struggle to believe the LDs are doing that badly and the Tories that well.
Something doesn’t smell right.
I pick up vibes from co-workers, friends and my broader network.
Of course that’s naturally very AB/southern bias but that’s also where the LDs should be doing well.
Here is anther prediction. The tories are going to do a lot better in Scotland than consensus predicts. I write as a scot...
I also note they’re attacking seats like Edinburgh South West and Lanark and Hamilton East, and not wholly on the defensive either, which I find interesting.1 -
In all seriousness, I do wonder if the media have any more Boris scandals in the back of the filing cabinet.kle4 said:
Ah, hence why he was put up in the first week of the campaign, to ensure a deliberately poor start, and he's not been seen since. Well played.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.Casino_Royale said:Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.0 -
They won't break for Labour this time.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1195811975583948802
It's 28 to 45 but disregard that.
Don't knows are sitting it out at the moment.
In 2017 they went to Labour as the campaign went on.
Many of the former Tory "maybes" are quite easy to talk back round.1 -
Have I got this right?
YouGov showing 17% lead, Deltapoll 15%, ComRes 8%, BGM 8%?0 -
What about the SDP? They are fielding 20 candidates.Philip_Thompson said:
I suppose why include TIG and UKIP but not include them?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party............ GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 6500 -
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I suppose it will be interesting to see how Boris does in a debate when he is well ahead in the polls. He seems like a confidence performer, and under pressure he can blow up, but perhaps he's the sort who shoots himself in the foot when feeling no pressure at all. Will it be cautious Boris, not wanting to gaffe, or confident Boris swinging for the fences as he can afford a gaffe in two in trying to keep up the momentum?0
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Anthony Wells unimpressed with that write up in The Indy.
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/11958145610787962881 -
F&ck my old boots.peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
Although the SNP figure looks about right.0 -
We actually have an even better secret weapon - the "2017 Will Repeat" doomsters on both the Left and Right will keep people thinking the election is super close even as Corbyn stands on the precipice of a 1983-wipeout!FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories have a secret weapon this time around...the moggster....send him out onto the airwaves and instantly knocks a few % of the Tory polling.Casino_Royale said:Pulpstar said:People disbelieving the polling is probably a good thing for Tory GOTV to be honest.
The Tory leads are simply too big and could drive all sorts of nasty countereactions.
They really really really don’t want a “limit the size of the Tory victory” meme to get going.
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BOOM 1931 central!!!peter_from_putney said:Baxterising the Sunday Times/YouGov poll this evening produces:
Party GE Seats
Con ................ 405
Lab ................. 155
LD .................... 20
SNP .................. 48
Green ................. 1
Plaid C ............... 3
N.I. ................... 18
Total .............. 650
I will take 330 😊😊😊0
