politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds
Comments
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Don't know why everyone doesn't do it. I usually return mine on the day it arrives. My polling station is just around the corner but why take the chance of something cropping up on the day?philiph said:
Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
Sooo hard.....0 -
That has not been announced but it is also subject to a high court action from royal mailbigjohnowls said:
Yes but this year the CWU aren't delivering themBig_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
Growth 0.3% - no recession0
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My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....0 -
Corbyn's got nothing to do with this conversation. I'm not voting for him, you aren't, Little G isn't. So take your whataboutery and cram it up your hoop.MarqueeMark said:Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.
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Given the separatist majority in Holyrood you'd have had your indyref2 by now if you hadn't bleated continually "once in a generation opportunity" in indyref1Theuniondivvie said:
HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.malcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.0 -
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....0 -
Presume this commemorates the battle of the same name? My dad was crash crew on a windy RN base in NI towards the end of the war and they still had Swordfish operating then; he loved those planes, to the point of commissioning me to do a drawing of one.Dura_Ace said:11th Nov is Taranto Night and the only night of the year I drink. I am usually called upon to recount the "Hong Kong Story" which will never be told on pb.com as constitutions are too delicate to take it. It makes the "Poland Story" look like Enid Blyton.
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You can take it in to the polling stationOblitusSumMe said:
I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
Unfortunately, I suspect a number of your fellow Conservatives won't be doing much in the way of humility. The stench of triumphalism is already palpable from parts of the west country for example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malc
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a long way
There's a lot of fences to be mended by the next Government and we are going to need more than a few words from Boris if he walks back into No.10. If he genuinely wants to make Britain "the greatest place on Earth" than it has to be so for everybody not just the fortunate.
It has to be the greatest place for the unfortunate as well whatever their circumstances.
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Charming as ever.Noo said:
Corbyn's got nothing to do with this conversation. I'm not voting for him, you aren't, Little G isn't. So take your whataboutery and cram it up your hoop.MarqueeMark said:Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.
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That sentence could be read two ways.philiph said:
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....0 -
I refuse to be drawn by his nonsense. He is to be petiedMarqueeMark said:
Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.Noo said:
It's not humility. It's because deep down you know voting for a racist is wrong. But you've heaped layers of self-justification on top and smothered that nagging little voice. It's pitiful to watch.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
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JBriskinindyref2 said:
bleated continually "once in a generation opportunity" in indyref1
goodness, you've left yourself wide open there
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Six months ago you could not stand Boris. Nowadays you defend his every policy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
When he wins I will not be surprised if you are wearing a party hat whilst passing around the hors d'ouvres....1 -
morning, plankbasicbridge said:
Charming as ever.Noo said:
Corbyn's got nothing to do with this conversation. I'm not voting for him, you aren't, Little G isn't. So take your whataboutery and cram it up your hoop.MarqueeMark said:Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.
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This is Brexit. Logic has no place...logical_song said:How can the Tories get away with asking us to vote for them to 'get Brexit done'? If they get a majority the withdrawal agreement will pass but then there will be at least two years, maybe much more, before a free trade agreement is made and we really exit. That part will make the withdrawal agreement look easy, in fact we could still be looking at a No Deal Brexit after all.
Labour's policy will mean six months for renegotiation then three more for the referendum, after which God knows what will happen.
If people really want Brexit over so we can concentrate on the important stuff then Revoke is the only option.0 -
I agree 100%stodge said:
Unfortunately, I suspect a number of your fellow Conservatives won't be doing much in the way of humility. The stench of triumphalism is already palpable from parts of the west country for example.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malc
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a long way
There's a lot of fences to be mended by the next Government and we are going to need more than a few words from Boris if he walks back into No.10. If he genuinely wants to make Britain "the greatest place on Earth" than it has to be so for everybody not just the fortunate.
It has to be the greatest place for the unfortunate as well whatever their circumstances.0 -
You ignore the racism of your Dear Leader.Big_G_NorthWales said:I ignore him
Why do you think I give YOU such a hard time over this? It's because you've shown signs that you know the difference between right and wrong. Half the Tories on here are just tribal psychos, no hope for them. But you, you actually know better. And you choose the path you know to be wrong. That makes you the absolute worst.0 -
Which halves the risk.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You can take it in to the polling stationOblitusSumMe said:
I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
Do the Scots buy the idea that independence is a thing in this election? This is a Brexit election, and independence comes into it as a corollary, but how exactly? Does "taking us out of Europe against our will" strengthen the case for a second independence referendum? The SNP wants two referendums - on EU membership and on independence. They are allied with Labour in this position. The SLDs and the SCons are alike in not wanting any referendums, and are both pro-Union but opposed on the EU. So on policies the SNP and SLab stand together and their opponents are split. That is only good for the SNP I would say.
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Which maybe enhances the accuracy, or maybe not.AlastairMeeks said:
That sentence could be read two ways.philiph said:
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....0 -
Sorry to disappoint you but my only toast would be to see the end of the Corbyn threatBeibheirli_C said:
Six months ago you could not stand Boris. Nowadays you defend his every policy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
When he wins I will not be surprised if you are wearing a party hat whilst passing around the hors d'ouvres....
Nothing else matters to me1 -
From the person who said that numbers do not matter.Beibheirli_C said:
This is Brexit. Logic has no place...logical_song said:How can the Tories get away with asking us to vote for them to 'get Brexit done'? If they get a majority the withdrawal agreement will pass but then there will be at least two years, maybe much more, before a free trade agreement is made and we really exit. That part will make the withdrawal agreement look easy, in fact we could still be looking at a No Deal Brexit after all.
Labour's policy will mean six months for renegotiation then three more for the referendum, after which God knows what will happen.
If people really want Brexit over so we can concentrate on the important stuff then Revoke is the only option.2 -
In general I agree with this, but I have qualms where it rewards recent actions to ethnically cleanse or settle areas where the local inhabitants don't have a say - main examples I can think of are Tibet, Xinjiang and the Occupied Territories of Palestine.numbertwelve said:
Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.Mysticrose said:
Absolutely not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.
Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.
Where is the dividing line between "these people have been bussed in to steal land" and "these people aren't responsible for the crimes of history" ?0 -
Which makes it pointless?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You can take it in to the polling stationOblitusSumMe said:
I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.0 -
A Freudian slip, thinking of the Millenium Dome perhaps.bigjohnowls said:
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https://order-order.com/2019/11/11/confused-thornberrys-car-crash-media-round/
I forgot about Jezbollahs thoughts on WW2
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How then is this to be achieved? Where are the policies from the Conservative "tsunami of Tory ideas" to improve the quality of life for the infirm, the disabled, the chronically ill or those with mental health problems not to forget those who care for them and of course the elderly.stodge said:
I agree 100%Big_G_NorthWales said:
Unfortunately, I suspect a number of your fellow Conservatives won't be doing much in the way of humility. The stench of triumphalism is already palpable from parts of the west country for example.
There's a lot of fences to be mended by the next Government and we are going to need more than a few words from Boris if he walks back into No.10. If he genuinely wants to make Britain "the greatest place on Earth" than it has to be so for everybody not just the fortunate.
It has to be the greatest place for the unfortunate as well whatever their circumstances.
Being an elderly person alone in London is just plain awful - how do we make life better for the lonely?
0 -
Or maybe we just have a better handle on what constitutes a "generation"? I mean, I know life is short and brutal in Scotland, but even so....you aren't exactly Mayflies.Theuniondivvie said:
HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.malcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.0 -
They're only for the quiet bat people.bigjohnowls said:
Can I buy one or do I get one free?Stereotomy said:
The skills wallets are real!HYUFD said:LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-503676500 -
Not really. I would post it fairly quickly and get on with my lifeOblitusSumMe said:
Which makes it pointless?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You can take it in to the polling stationOblitusSumMe said:
I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
However, if the royal mail were on strike or adverse weather forecast I could still vote by going to the polling station with it0 -
A view shared by countless millions.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sorry to disappoint you but my only toast would be to see the end of the Corbyn threatBeibheirli_C said:
Six months ago you could not stand Boris. Nowadays you defend his every policy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
When he wins I will not be surprised if you are wearing a party hat whilst passing around the hors d'ouvres....
Nothing else matters to me1 -
Ah, but the problem for SLAB is the high command in London, which is dominated by the Socialist Friends of Sinn Fein. Why anyone should expect them to be any more concerned about the Union with Scotland than that with Northern Ireland I've no idea. Besides which, one gains the distinct impression that they would be more than happy to toss their failing Edinburgh branch office on the scrap heap in exchange for C&S with the SNP bloc in the Commons.Noo said:
I'm not sure I agree with the "vaguely" part of "vaguely pro union". Labour put their heart and soul into the No campaign. Sadly for them, it turns out they were on the other side of the fence from half their core support. And aside from ambiguous noises about "allowing" a referendum, I don't see any vagueness. In fact, Labour probably have the most sensible unionist position of all. The Conservatives are opposed to the democratic process completely, and the Lib Dems -- who will nevertheless get my vote -- are hypocritical about EU/indy referendums.Black_Rook said:
As you say, part of the process of transformation. The SNP have nearly completed the project of replacing Labour and, that being the case, you'd naturally expect their support in rural and more affluent areas to gently decline. If and when independence comes and they turn themselves into a more conventional social democratic party, that trend should accelerate.IanB2 said:That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.
You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.
Under the present circumstances its very easy to imagine Labour going back down to one seat, and relations between the likely sole survivor and the Corbynites are so bad that he's not far short of being an independent Unionist anyway. I wonder if they might also go sub-10% in Scotland? They were already down to 12% in that big YouGov survey from the end of last month IIRC, and there's time enough left for that to be squeezed. I suppose it depends how accurate that value is, and whether or not the whole of that last 12% are reflexive, mostly elderly habit voters.
The marketplace for a Far Left, vaguely pro-Union and all-over-the-place on Europe party, complete with a leader even more unpopular in Scotland than Boris, can't be that big? Can it?0 -
The only difference is a couple of generations.OblitusSumMe said:
In general I agree with this, but I have qualms where it rewards recent actions to ethnically cleanse or settle areas where the local inhabitants don't have a say - main examples I can think of are Tibet, Xinjiang and the Occupied Territories of Palestine.numbertwelve said:
Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.Mysticrose said:
Absolutely not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?Mysticrose said:
Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.Charles said:
Gulf War 1? Falklands?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.
And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.
Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.
Where is the dividing line between "these people have been bussed in to steal land" and "these people aren't responsible for the crimes of history" ?0 -
Lord West, ex labour minister on skynews just taking Corbyn to pieces on defence. Another Tory social media clip will no doubt follow.1
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They do not. That is why logic cannot win. People run on perception, not logic.another_richard said:
From the person who said that numbers do not matter.Beibheirli_C said:
This is Brexit. Logic has no place...logical_song said:How can the Tories get away with asking us to vote for them to 'get Brexit done'? If they get a majority the withdrawal agreement will pass but then there will be at least two years, maybe much more, before a free trade agreement is made and we really exit. That part will make the withdrawal agreement look easy, in fact we could still be looking at a No Deal Brexit after all.
Labour's policy will mean six months for renegotiation then three more for the referendum, after which God knows what will happen.
If people really want Brexit over so we can concentrate on the important stuff then Revoke is the only option.0 -
Ah - the highly paid Labour mp defenceOblitusSumMe said:
I don't have a printer at home. My argument isn't that it's hard, but that there are extra barriers to participation - all other things being equal those barriers will reduce turnout.philiph said:
Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts youOblitusSumMe said:
It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.Recidivist said:
I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.Casino_Royale said:Mysticrose said:I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.
It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
Sooo hard.....0 -
Your every utterance is just pure gold......Noo said:
Corbyn's got nothing to do with this conversation. I'm not voting for him, you aren't, Little G isn't. So take your whataboutery and cram it up your hoop.MarqueeMark said:Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.
0 -
The way it works is this. Before the election, the Lib Dems promise to put £10,000 into your wallet. The day after the election they decide it will be better to take £10,000 out of it.bigjohnowls said:
Can I buy one or do I get one free?Stereotomy said:
The skills wallets are real!HYUFD said:LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-503676500 -
Once you have a postal vote you have to go through hoops to renounce it. I prefer to actually go to the polling
stationplace to get a sense of participation in the great civic activity of an election, but the pv duly arrives a fortnight before election day and preempts it. I know I can hand it in on the day, but the magic of the stubby pencil mark in individual booth is lost.0 -
QEDNoo said:
morning, plankbasicbridge said:
Charming as ever.Noo said:
Corbyn's got nothing to do with this conversation. I'm not voting for him, you aren't, Little G isn't. So take your whataboutery and cram it up your hoop.MarqueeMark said:Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.
Idiot1 -
So, we should have let the invasion stand?Mysticrose said:
We shouldn't behave like colonial arseholes for a lump of rock 8000 miles away.Nigel_Foremain said:
Being in close proximity does not determine ownership.Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
It's pathetic.
0 -
Voting by post feels shit.
Voting at a polling station feels awesome.1 -
Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.0
-
Thank you Charles and others for kind thoughts. Losing your life partner is awful but it does get easier with time. I do focus on happier times and irs the right advice to give to other in a similar situation .0
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So what? North Rhine-Westphalia is 300 miles from the UK, does that make that part of Germany belong to the UK?OblitusSumMe said:
Close proximity? The Falklands are about 300 miles from Argentina, whereas the Channel Islands are less than 100 miles from the UK.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
The Falkland Islands are in the South Atlantic. They only appear to be in close proximity to Argentina in comparison to their proximity to... the UK.
The Falkland Islands future belongs to the Falkland Islanders and not to Argentina.
EDIT: My apologies I just realised I misread your post and you were making the same point as I am.1 -
But the areas that support for Scottish independence is highest are seats that SNP are going to take anyway (Lab central belt seats) and the areas where independence is less popular (in the wealthier parts of Scotland), is where the gains for the SNP are less certain.Alistair said:In 2017 the SNP made the election about Brexit. Completely downplayed Independence. Tried to appeal to Remainders.
Two things happened:
Their vote went down to 37% with activists deeply disgruntled.
Their opponents and the media constantly screamed - "The SNP keep banging on about independence non stop vote no to Independence.
So, given this why would the SNP not make this election about independence?
So what is the benefit for them in making this election about independence in turns of maximizing the number of GAINS the SNP make?0 -
What??!! Letwin is deeply unpopular in West Dorset!!roserees64 said:Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.
One reason he didnt stand again was because hed lose. And badly...0 -
A case of not seeing the wood for the single bud on a small branch of one nondescript tree.
"BA said that its fuel tankering generated 18,000 tonnes of additional CO2 per year – less than 0.1% of its overall emissions..."0 -
The FAA are still operating a Swordfish now!Theuniondivvie said:
Presume this commemorates the battle of the same name? My dad was crash crew on a windy RN base in NI towards the end of the war and they still had Swordfish operating then; he loved those planes, to the point of commissioning me to do a drawing of one.Dura_Ace said:11th Nov is Taranto Night and the only night of the year I drink. I am usually called upon to recount the "Hong Kong Story" which will never be told on pb.com as constitutions are too delicate to take it. It makes the "Poland Story" look like Enid Blyton.
Read "War in a Stringbag" by Cdr Charles Lamb DSO, DSC, RN for an unsparing account of what flying and fighting in a Swordfish was like.0 -
He's an idiot.MarqueeMark said:
Your every utterance is just pure gold......Noo said:
Corbyn's got nothing to do with this conversation. I'm not voting for him, you aren't, Little G isn't. So take your whataboutery and cram it up your hoop.MarqueeMark said:Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.
Best ignored.1 -
It was quite jolt to me when you told us seven years ago, but good to hear you've recovered.SquareRoot said:Thank you Charles and others for kind thoughts. Losing your life partner is awful but it does get easier with time. I do focus on happier times and irs the right advice to give to other in a similar situation .
0 -
Yep, you gammony chaps in the south of England are definitely the best people to decide on whether Scotland is 'allowed' to have a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Or maybe we just have a better handle on what constitutes a "generation"? I mean, I know life is short and brutal in Scotland, but even so....you aren't exactly Mayflies.Theuniondivvie said:
HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.malcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.
Given the rage over low powered vacuum cleaners, I can just imagine the level of empurplement if Brussels had made some pronouncement on whether you were allowed to hold your self destructive little stushie.0 -
I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Growth 0.3% - no recession
0 -
"no recession" isnt exactly the biggest enthusiasm booster.0
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Ha, I think I bought that for him one Christmas. Pretty sure I still have it in a trunk of his books, must dig it out.Dura_Ace said:
The FAA are still operating a Swordfish now!Theuniondivvie said:
Presume this commemorates the battle of the same name? My dad was crash crew on a windy RN base in NI towards the end of the war and they still had Swordfish operating then; he loved those planes, to the point of commissioning me to do a drawing of one.Dura_Ace said:11th Nov is Taranto Night and the only night of the year I drink. I am usually called upon to recount the "Hong Kong Story" which will never be told on pb.com as constitutions are too delicate to take it. It makes the "Poland Story" look like Enid Blyton.
Read "War in a Stringbag" by Cdr Charles Lamb DSO, DSC, RN for an unsparing account of what flying and fighting in a Swordfish was like.0 -
Germany going into recession this week - we are notnunu2 said:
I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Growth 0.3% - no recession
1 -
As far as I can tell the Scots have voted to permit Westminster to determine when you can have a referendum on three occassions now.Theuniondivvie said:Yep, you gammony chaps in the south of England are definitely the best people to decide on whether Scotland is 'allowed' to have a referendum.
Given the rage over low powered vacuum cleaners, I can just imagine the level of empurplement if Brussels had made some pronouncement on whether you were allowed to hold your self destructive little stushie.
1: When you endorsed the Scottish Parliament devolution in the 90s this was explicitly a reserved matter.
2: When Alex Salmond agreed the 'once in a generation' referendum it was on the basis this was a reserved matter and this would be permitted this one time.
3: When you Scots voted No in the referendum you voted to keep this a reserved matter.
If you'd voted Yes in the referendum this would not be a reserved matter anymore. Don't blame the English for it being one, you should have voted Yes last time if you wanted to be an independent country.
Hopefully you get another referendum soon and do vote Yes this time, I think it will be best for both Scotland and England, but don't claim some moral high ground when your compatriots have voted to keep this reserved.0 -
Sounds like sedition talk. Enjoy your jail cell.Theuniondivvie said:
Yep, you gammony chaps in the south of England are definitely the best people to decide on whether Scotland is 'allowed' to have a referendum.MarqueeMark said:
Or maybe we just have a better handle on what constitutes a "generation"? I mean, I know life is short and brutal in Scotland, but even so....you aren't exactly Mayflies.Theuniondivvie said:
HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.malcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.
Given the rage over low powered vacuum cleaners, I can just imagine the level of empurplement if Brussels had made some pronouncement on whether you were allowed to hold your self destructive little stushie.0 -
0
-
Sky have a piece on Wigan and will it go blue.
Spoiler - it will not (18% swing, not Tory since 1910), 90th safest labour seat0 -
We're not Spain, we're better than them. You and HYUFD are embarrassing.JBriskinindyref2 said:Sounds like sedition talk. Enjoy your jail cell.
0 -
I'm not particularly claiming moral high ground, I just know who occupies the low ground. A ditch, as it were.Philip_Thompson said:
As far as I can tell the Scots have voted to permit Westminster to determine when you can have a referendum on three occassions now.Theuniondivvie said:Yep, you gammony chaps in the south of England are definitely the best people to decide on whether Scotland is 'allowed' to have a referendum.
Given the rage over low powered vacuum cleaners, I can just imagine the level of empurplement if Brussels had made some pronouncement on whether you were allowed to hold your self destructive little stushie.
1: When you endorsed the Scottish Parliament devolution in the 90s this was explicitly a reserved matter.
2: When Alex Salmond agreed the 'once in a generation' referendum it was on the basis this was a reserved matter and this would be permitted this one time.
3: When you Scots voted No in the referendum you voted to keep this a reserved matter.
If you'd voted Yes in the referendum this would not be a reserved matter anymore. Don't blame the English for it being one, you should have voted Yes last time if you wanted to be an independent country.
Hopefully you get another referendum soon and do vote Yes this time, I think it will be best for both Scotland and England, but don't claim some moral high ground when your compatriots have voted to keep this reserved.0 -
Ask the Kosovans whether military intervention helped them or not. (Also ask yourself whether Corbyn was on the side of Milosovic or the Bosnian Muslims he was killing).Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
The IRA agreed to talk because (a) they realised that their violence was not going to win ie the military action which the British had taken was successful in stopping the IRA winning ( even though it was not able to defeat them militarily); and (b) they had been thoroughly infiltrated by the British.
There is no record of Corbyn ever having reached out or talked to any armed group or party in a conflict he has not agreed with, despite the lies he and his supporters say on a regular basis about him wanting to talk on all sides. Indeed, on occasion he has campaigned to stop people he does not like being heard or invited for talks.0 -
It's all going too far but that twitter is gold.Theuniondivvie said:Respectful and staunch.
https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/1193831569531781125?s=20
https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/11935375015473725441 -
1
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How about Kosovo?NickPalmer said:
I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.rottenborough said:Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4
Barely bothering to try frankly.0 -
According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.Dura_Ace said:
Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.Foxy said:
He will save their lives by keeping them at home!Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
0 -
Yeah how shocking but the lesson from Venezuela's failure to shift a single British vote last time round is the only two groups who give a damn about rum goings-on in South America are Jeremy Corbyn and CCHQ's campaign team.CarlottaVance said:More Corbyn getting it wrong....
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193813829374955521?s=201 -
I'm a new voter in West Dorset and the LibDems will get hammered!roserees64 said:Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.
0 -
I’m wondering how the hell a bare-root rose would survive the journey to the Falklands.AlastairMeeks said:
That sentence could be read two ways.philiph said:
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
Thanks for the article @AlastairMeeks. Brilliant first sentence!0 -
And yet annual growth is 1% at a time of historically high employment, record numbers of vacancies and an ever growing population adding to the workforce.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Germany going into recession this week - we are not
We could and should be doing so much better but in the current economic model recruiting extra labour is easier than investing in technology to drive business efficiencies. Productivity remains poor because we are either unable or unwilling to innovate and rely on a Service sector parts of which remain heavily labour-intensive.
0 -
I'm much misunderstood.Cyclefree said:
I’m wondering how the hell a bare-root rose would survive the journey to the Falklands.AlastairMeeks said:
That sentence could be read two ways.philiph said:
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
Thanks for the article @AlastairMeeks. Brilliant first sentence!0 -
Surely the coup attempt took place in Bolivia when Morales tried to stuff the ballot boxes?0
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Meanwhile, this looks useful for considering constituency betting:
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/11936358942946959390 -
Your second paragraph partly explains the first.stodge said:
And yet annual growth is 1% at a time of historically high employment, record numbers of vacancies and an ever growing population adding to the workforce.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Germany going into recession this week - we are not
We could and should be doing so much better but in the current economic model recruiting extra labour is easier than investing in technology to drive business efficiencies. Productivity remains poor because we are either unable or unwilling to innovate and rely on a Service sector parts of which remain heavily labour-intensive.
0 -
And you don't think that's related to having a virtually unlimited pool of cheap labour available?stodge said:
And yet annual growth is 1% at a time of historically high employment, record numbers of vacancies and an ever growing population adding to the workforce.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Germany going into recession this week - we are not
We could and should be doing so much better but in the current economic model recruiting extra labour is easier than investing in technology to drive business efficiencies. Productivity remains poor because we are either unable or unwilling to innovate and rely on a Service sector parts of which remain heavily labour-intensive.0 -
@Pulpstar thought my last header was written by you, which I take as a great compliment (though you might not, of course).AlastairMeeks said:
I'm much misunderstood.Cyclefree said:
I’m wondering how the hell a bare-root rose would survive the journey to the Falklands.AlastairMeeks said:
That sentence could be read two ways.philiph said:
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
Thanks for the article @AlastairMeeks. Brilliant first sentence!0 -
stodge said:
And yet annual growth is 1% at a time of historically high employment, record numbers of vacancies and an ever growing population adding to the workforce.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Germany going into recession this week - we are not
Cheap labour is limitless. I see it where we work. Poles, Romanians and Portuguese are available off the shelf and will work basically under any terms.0 -
I thought it was an excellent header and I very much took it as a compliment - though perhaps our writing styles are converging!Cyclefree said:
@Pulpstar thought my last header was written by you, which I take as a great compliment (though you might not, of course).AlastairMeeks said:
I'm much misunderstood.Cyclefree said:
I’m wondering how the hell a bare-root rose would survive the journey to the Falklands.AlastairMeeks said:
That sentence could be read two ways.philiph said:
We have the odd customer there.AlastairMeeks said:
My firm has an office in the Falklands. It's had one in Iraq in the past. Don't mention St Pierre and Miquelon. You'll give them ideas.matt said:Z
St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.Nigel_Foremain said:
Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?Mysticrose said:
You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.Floater said:
According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....Mysticrose said:
Bravo. Good for him.rottenborough said:Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
Thanks for the article @AlastairMeeks. Brilliant first sentence!0 -
It's the next decade that concerns me, not the next seven days...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Germany going into recession this week - we are notnunu2 said:
I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:Growth 0.3% - no recession
0 -
Hard to understand why I should pay tax so a retired Colonel can get a free commute to his job in the City.Roger said:
According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.Dura_Ace said:
Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.Foxy said:
He will save their lives by keeping them at home!Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
1 -
At the victory celebration or the wake ?Xtrain said:
I'm a new voter in West Dorset and the LibDems will get hammered!roserees64 said:Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.
2 -
Counted millions surely? It is an election and they actually do count the votesMarqueeMark said:
A view shared by countless millions.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sorry to disappoint you but my only toast would be to see the end of the Corbyn threatBeibheirli_C said:
Six months ago you could not stand Boris. Nowadays you defend his every policy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The arrogance is breathtaking Malcmalcolmg said:
You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.HYUFD said:
It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majorityGallowgate said:
I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.HYUFD said:
The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seatsGallowgate said:
Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?HYUFD said:
Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my viewydoethur said:
Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.HYUFD said:
To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seatsydoethur said:On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
When he wins I will not be surprised if you are wearing a party hat whilst passing around the hors d'ouvres....
Nothing else matters to me
0 -
Fake news or fake fake news? You decide.
https://twitter.com/bojack70552409/status/1193812875049082880?s=202 -
Railcards, not free travel, AAUI.JohnLilburne said:
Hard to understand why I should pay tax so a retired Colonel can get a free commute to his job in the City.Roger said:
According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.Dura_Ace said:
Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.Foxy said:
He will save their lives by keeping them at home!Roger said:You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
1 -
I think "the stench of triumphalism" in the West Country, comes, Mr Stodge, mainly from the wealthy Tory blow-ins who have been buying the place up. Traditional Conservative voters are honest, reasonable and pragmatic, who just want to see sound government in London, not a gang of incompetents who play fast and loose with the economy and with people`s livelihoods.stodge said:Unfortunately, I suspect a number of your fellow Conservatives won't be doing much in the way of humility. The stench of triumphalism is already palpable from parts of the west country for example.
There's a lot of fences to be mended by the next Government and we are going to need more than a few words from Boris if he walks back into No.10. If he genuinely wants to make Britain "the greatest place on Earth" than it has to be so for everybody not just the fortunate.
It has to be the greatest place for the unfortunate as well whatever their circumstances.0 -
Considering that Scots are canny people, I do find it odd that some Scottish Tories consider voting Labour, and vice versa, in order to keep SNP MPs out. This doesn't seem very intelligent at all.1
-
The Democrats in the impeachment hearings truly know how to grill a witness on the issues of greatest importance:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/09/impeachment-transcripts-hidden-gems-066854
DANIEL NOBLE (Democratic counsel): “Are you a fan of the Oxford comma?”
HILL: “I’m confused, is kind of basically where I am. Because when I was growing up, they changed the comma formatting, and then when I came here, I found there was all kinds of different comma formatting. So I tend to put commas everywhere.”...0 -
In passing, I see that the replacement Tory candidate for East Devon is Raab`s spad. No further comment is needed, really.0
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Anyway, completely off topic and based on nothing at all other than a photo of the lovely Meghan at yesterday’s Remembrance Day Service, I think she may be pregnant again.
There. I shall now stop using my old woman witch powers and do something useful with my day.0 -
I am sure there will be less of that now that Labour has aligned itself with the SNP on the two referendums matter.Dadge said:Considering that Scots are canny people, I do find it odd that some Scottish Tories consider voting Labour, and vice versa, in order to keep SNP MPs out. This doesn't seem very intelligent at all.
0 -
I'm saddened that so many democrats are in favour of military coups.CarlottaVance said:More Corbyn getting it wrong....
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1193813829374955521?s=200 -
1
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Hush your mouth. I am large green on her.beentheredonethat said:
Go Ezza!0 -
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If anyone has doubts about Corbyn's ability as a master tactician look no further than Edinburgh South. The only seat Labour are likely to win in Scotland thanks to the personal vote of Ian Murray has just managed to fend off Jeremy's ferocious attempt to deselect him!0
