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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873

    The fear of a landslide was what kicked off the Corbyn comeback last time. The voters may baulk at headlines predicting Johnson winning a 100-seat majority.

    This voter certainly does.

    Although this bettor would be rolling in it.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited November 2019

    Amazing the variance of views on here between those saying a disaster for Lab, those saying a disaster for Con, and all in between.

    It’s hilarious.
    People have rigid views, and they interpret the daily events through that prism, despite any contortions required, to reinforce them.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Tepid take: I doubt this is going to make much difference to the outcome either way.

    Agreed.
    Disagree.

    Many of the seats the libdems would have taken in the south will now be safely Tory.

    I would like Survation to do thise constituency polls again in the south without BXP on the ballot
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?

    So what indeed. It’s not strange that right wing, populist nationalist parties are going to be happy in each others’ company.

    Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    Currently in Labour Party HQ :D


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa7nSzCiGXk
  • JameiJamei Posts: 48
    Remember this will affect national opinion polls. Plenty of people will respond that they are voting Brexit Party only to discover when they come to vote that they aren't on the ballot paper in their constituency.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,522

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?

    So what indeed. It’s not strange that right wing, populist nationalist parties are going to be happy in each others’ company.

    Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
    It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Jonathan said:

    Amazing the variance of views on here between those saying a disaster for Lab, those saying a disaster for Con, and all in between.

    Probably good for the Cons at this election, but at the cost of their soul and long term future.
    Lol

    As if you were ever going to say anything other than the tories being baby eating monsters.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    With hindsight it is just as likely that they were in Pakistan as Afghanistan. And given that almost all the 911 terrorists were Saudis and we know the Saudis are backing such terror groups around the world, there was as much cause to attack either Pakistan or Saudi as there was to attack Afghanistan. We chose the latter because it was a failed state and not a supposed ally.
    You make a good point.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?

    So what indeed. It’s not strange that right wing, populist nationalist parties are going to be happy in each others’ company.

    Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
    It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
    No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.

    If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    Absolutely.

    It is also too glib a conclusion from YouGov given that Kosovo and Sierra Leone are not on that list.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,522

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?

    So what indeed. It’s not strange that right wing, populist nationalist parties are going to be happy in each others’ company.

    Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
    It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
    No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.

    If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
    Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046

    Farage's move should help the Tories to the tune of about 13 seats according to my model, hurting Labour (-6), the Lib Dems (-6) and the SNP (-1). Difference between a majority of about 16 and about 42.

    Not sure it will hurt the Lib Dems. Makes the key issue even clearer
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    Vote Tory - Get Farage
    Vote LibDem - Get Corbyn or Green or SNP or PC

    I can see it is a winning line for them to take.

    LibDems (very foolishly) endorse tactical voting and standing aside, this is easy to contrast to a unilateral alliance.
  • DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?

    So what indeed. It’s not strange that right wing, populist nationalist parties are going to be happy in each others’ company.

    Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
    It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
    No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.

    If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
    We are an independent country you numpty. So are all the other members of the EU club. You have been conned.
  • nico67 said:

    Labour have the attack ads all lined up already .

    Ian Lavery’s looks to be the best so far .

    “This is a Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson alliance with Donald Trump to sell out our country and send £500 million per week from our NHS to US drugs companies “.

    Regardless of whether it’s true or not , it seemed to work okay for Bozo and his bus .

    Bizarrely Labour are now in the position of wanting to talk about Nigel Farage all the time - to tie the Tories to him politically - and hoping that his party dwindles to an irrelevance - to avoid taking Labour votes in Labour-held seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    edited November 2019

    This Thread is standing down

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,972

    I am not sure this announcement by El Duce is really that good for the Tories. In all seats that they did not win last time they will be competing with the Faragists. A bit challenging when they do not currently have a majority.

    Is my reading. But others on here assure me it is great news for the blues.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited November 2019
    DougSeal said:

    Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.

    Our place on the "global stage" is secure.
    We'll be the ones wearing bells on our motley hats, dancing a merry jig and juggling for our supper.
  • welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature.

    I see a more extreme Welsh Nationalist party GWLAD will now be standing in Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan -- all abandoned by Plaid Cymru in their stupid 'Remain Pact'.
    Altogether now:

    "What the world needs now
    Is extreme nationalism
    It's the only thing
    That there's just too little of"
    Posted by an ardent Leaver - one has to enjoy the irony.
    Do I count as an ardent Leaver? It's not first on my list of priorities. Regardless, not everyone in the country who originally voted to ditch the EU did it out of a desperate desire to pull up the drawbridge, you know.
    They pretty much did. Either to stop foreigners coming or to stop having to think about the messy but necessary compromises that modern international life requires, in favour of a hazy idea that there were a different set of compromises out there that would somehow be pain-free and pleasant.

    It was a national act of pulling the duvet back over the head rather than get up and go to work.

  • What would you say are the true odds that the Brexit party will take a seat now are, bearing in mind that Thurrock is now off limits, as are Clacton and South Thanet?

    Pretty long odds to take a seat now.

    They won't be helped by the fact that responses to nationwide opinion polls will be affected by Farage's decision not to stand in half the seats nationwide, both by people and pollsters. The BXP share should fall significantly even if their share is initially holding up where they are standing. That in turn will feed into a "BXP polling on the slide" narrative that could become a viscous circle as the perception takes hold that they can't win in seats where they are standing.
  • Apols if previously mentioned, but Spreadex has a very sharp increase in its mid- spread quote for Tory seats this morning up from 329 to 345, an increase therefore of 16 seats. Sounds as if there has been some pretty heavy buying of the Blue Team, presumably on the back of Farage's announcement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,224

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    Absolutely.

    It is also too glib a conclusion from YouGov given that Kosovo and Sierra Leone are not on that list.
    2% oppose our involvement in WWII, the stiff right arm brigade.
  • welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.


    I see a more extreme Welsh Nationalist party GWLAD will now be standing in Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan -- all abandoned by Plaid Cymru in their stupid 'Remain Pact'.
    Altogether now:

    "What the world needs now
    Is extreme nationalism
    It's the only thing
    That there's just too little of"
    Posted by an ardent Leaver - one has to enjoy the irony.
    Do I count as an ardent Leaver? It's not first on my list of priorities. Regardless, not everyone in the country who originally voted to ditch the EU did it out of a desperate desire to pull up the drawbridge, you know.
    They pretty much did. Either to stop foreigners coming or to stop having to think about the messy but necessary compromises that modern international life requires, in favour of a hazy idea that there were a different set of compromises out there that would somehow be pain-free and pleasant.

    It was a national act of pulling the duvet back over the head rather than get up and go to work.

    And the folks who just didn't want to be on the journey to ever closer political union? There was a respectable chunk of the Leave spectrum who would have been happy with an EEA-only type arrangement....
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,407
    kamski said:

    timmo said:

    He wants a hung parliament..it gives him relevance
    well, the last hung parliament was good for the hard brexiters. If May had got her bigger majority in 2017 we would probably have left by now with a Brexit significantly softer than the current deal.
    small con maj to hung parliament is maybe win-win for Farage. Either Johnson is even more hostage to the ERG types, and we fall off the No Trade Deal cliff edge at the end of 2020, or possibly Brexit is cancelled and he gets to make a comeback as hero of the Will O The People.

    Johnson could tack back towards promising a softish end-deal with the EU to reassure the con-leaning soft remainish voters, but nobody believes a word he says. Hence the only thing left for the conservatives is to claim that Corbyn as PM would mean the end of the world so you'd better vote tory!
    Which is what they said about every labour leader that I can remember (as far back as Foot). Same Project Fear every time.
    My worry would be a small Con majority makes No Deal virtually certain, albeit delayed.

    Because of his majority, we get his Deal through the Commons and leave. Then, in the summer of 2020 it becomes painfully obvious we are nowhere near a FTA, but instead of getting the two year extension, ERG types prevent this and we head towards an effective No Deal exit for GB (only - NI is safe) just after Christmas.
    With Revoke no longer an option, we'd crash out, No Deal at the end of 2020.

    This isn't really far away. Has it not been 'wargamed' by Cummings?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,844
    edited November 2019
    Betting post for those who wish to back Tories on the spreads...

    ANY Majority at 27 (24 - 27) is surely the best purchase on Sporting index now ?

    Con seats 335-341 is effectively a spread of 20 - 32 on Tory Majority AND you get the hard stop at zero with a majority bet that you don't get with buying Tory seats.

    You also get Labour majority chucked in for free.

    I'm already on but worth tipping up.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,449

    Farage's move should help the Tories to the tune of about 13 seats according to my model, hurting Labour (-6), the Lib Dems (-6) and the SNP (-1). Difference between a majority of about 16 and about 42.

    Have you taken into account the Scottish Greens are not standing in NE Fife, Perth and North Perthshire, and Angus?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899
    MattW said:

    Interesting, Alistair - thanks.

    As a Brexiteer I'll give you a very old-fashioned look on that "try not to offend".

    With the SNP it is always good to remember that they are offended anyway before you say anything.

    :-)

    Unlike Tories :s

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    SNIP
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.

    BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.
    Or maybe we just have a better handle on what constitutes a "generation"? I mean, I know life is short and brutal in Scotland, but even so....you aren't exactly Mayflies.
    It was a quote by Salmond taken out of context and now Tories trying to make out is is a legally binding thing. He is long gone and given the shafting we are getting from Tory UK we can decide we want out whenever we want.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    Do the Scots buy the idea that independence is a thing in this election? This is a Brexit election, and independence comes into it as a corollary, but how exactly? Does "taking us out of Europe against our will" strengthen the case for a second independence referendum? The SNP wants two referendums - on EU membership and on independence. They are allied with Labour in this position. The SLDs and the SCons are alike in not wanting any referendums, and are both pro-Union but opposed on the EU. So on policies the SNP and SLab stand together and their opponents are split. That is only good for the SNP I would say.


    Geoff, all of our elections are about independence. Try to imagine a world where the debates about Brexit never end (not too hard in fact). That's where we are.
    David, It will end after next referendum.
This discussion has been closed.