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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    YES! Finally.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,963
    An excellent piece, thank you Alastair.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,963
    The one thing Alastair hasn't touched on in this piece is turnout. What partly contributed to SNP losses last time out was that they didn't get out their 2015 voters in the same numbers in 2017. Will this be the case this time?
  • Another excellent thread - thank you. One factor in how well SLAB do from tactical Unionist voting is how much cut-through a potential Corbyn-SNP deal gets - despite SLAB's protestations:

    https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1193086028548059142?s=20
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,105
    Artist said:

    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?

    We tories are a bit like cockroaches...
  • Artist said:

    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?

    We just never know, it'll be interesting to see what happens, specially in the close seats.
  • Artist said:

    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?

    We just never know, it'll be interesting to see what happens, specially in the close seats.
    People do not realise what a great job Ruth Davidson did. Scotland is a small place and I don’t even know who the Tory leader is in Scotland now and I am a Tory party member. My seat is a snp Tory marginal but whilst the snp are everywhere the tories are nowhere. Boris is not liked here and neither is brexit so where is the motivation to vote?

    I can see Lib Dem’s doing very well and tories and labour going nowhere

  • tlg86 said:

    The one thing Alastair hasn't touched on in this piece is turnout. What partly contributed to SNP losses last time out was that they didn't get out their 2015 voters in the same numbers in 2017. Will this be the case this time?

    I concur. Turnout is absolutely fundamental to judging how this might go north of the border.

    Media and spinners tried to portray UK GE 2017 as some kind of popular swing from the SNP to the Conservatives. It was nothing of the sort (except in Angus, to a laughably tiny extent). What really happened was:

    - massive swing SLD to SCon
    - big drop in SNP turnout

    This time round my guess is:

    - massive swing back from SCon to SLD
    - big rise in SNP turnout
    - modest swing SNP to SGrn, due to lots more Green candidates

    So, nearly a reversal.

    (One other point: the resignation of Ruth Davidson has *not* damaged Tory support. Nor has the total lack of SCon leadership. In fact both things may actually buoy up their vote a little. She was not popular among many right-wing people.)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2019
    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2019
    p.s. the weather is playing a part in proceedings. It's a very wet and quite cold November so far: mean CET is -0.6C below the 1961-1990 average which was already the coldest baseline the Met could have picked. That cold pattern looks set for the next two weeks, with the UK on the northern side of the polar front jet i.e. in persistent cold air mass.

    People batten down the hatches, no matter how many mod-cons. Only in the cities are things relatively unaffected.

    So if this continues and IF polling day is anything like this, I expect turnout to be down in a) rural areas and b) older generations.


    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

  • Morning all and good piece by Alastair. No doubt the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats. I would simply urge caution.

    Yes in 2016 Scotland voted 62/38 to remain but that was heavily influenced by the Central belt domination in the Scottish population. While it is correct that all 32 Scottish council areas voted Remain, the more rural the more it was closer to 50/50 and where the Tories won most seats in the old Grampian region, the Leave vote was most heavily concentrated.

    I have said on here several times I believe the SNP is playing this campaign wrong by going all out on IndyRef2. Instead of making it a Brexit election, they are colouring it as an IndyRef2 election. That may just encourage swing voters to stay with the leading anti-SNP party in their patch. Frankly it means little if the anticipated fall in the SCon vote is in places like Glasgow or Lanarkshire if it is holding up well in the North-east or the South of Scotland.

    How East Renfrewshire votes will be fascinating. As recently as 1992 it was the safest Tory seat in Scotland with an 11,000+ majority. Jim Murphy turned that round for Labour but now Paul Masterton is defending the seat for the SCons. He was the one Scot who rebelled against the Brexit position of the party but voted for it at just the correct times to avoid being suspended. He also represents the constituency with the largest Jewish population in Scotland.

    I would have put Stephen Kerr at the greatest risk in Stirling but I'm not sure the SNP hasn't blundered by parachuting in their lead MEP Alyn Smith. A case of "vote for us to stop Brexit but we don't believe we will succeed so we are finding a safe new job for our favourite Euro MP!" That should go down well on the doorsteps.
  • Excellent article.

    I'm already on the defence in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, and in Aberdeen South, am backing SCons seats north of 6 holds, and sold the SNP at 50.5.

    I do have a bet on SCons taking Lanark & Hamilton East, though. They are targeting it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Artist said:

    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?

    We just never know, it'll be interesting to see what happens, specially in the close seats.
    People do not realise what a great job Ruth Davidson did.

    Great point.

    Something I think I would be worried about as a tory is this. For all the talk about Lab to Con swing, the raw fact remains that the tories are ALSO down on last time. It's just that Labour are currently doing worse. This is not a strong Conservative position to be in at the moment.
  • Artist said:

    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?

    We just never know, it'll be interesting to see what happens, specially in the close seats.
    People do not realise what a great job Ruth Davidson did. Scotland is a small place and I don’t even know who the Tory leader is in Scotland now and I am a Tory party member. My seat is a snp Tory marginal but whilst the snp are everywhere the tories are nowhere. Boris is not liked here and neither is brexit so where is the motivation to vote?

    I can see Lib Dem’s doing very well and tories and labour going nowhere

    I do.

    Firstly, she was very impressive and, second, the SNP and nationalists were constantly sledging her.

    Which was (and is) very telling.
  • I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
  • Morning all,

    Too many thicko nationalists in Scotland,

    I'm on SNP under 50.5 but can't say I'm overly confident.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740
    Last time I put my meager efforts into Perth and North Perthshire, this time I am helping out in Angus. In short I have moved from offense to defence which is where I think that the Tories are.

    The risk is that the tactical voting of Unionists unwinds somewhat on the anvil of Brexit. More votes for the SLDs will, as Alastair points out, be wasted outside NE Fife.

    I am clinging to 2 hopes. Firstly, 38% of Scots voted to leave the EU. That is a big pool in which the Tories fish pretty much alone. The 62% is shared by all the other parties. Secondly, there are a fair number of Unionist ex Labour supporters who have just given up on their party completely. Squeezing that Labour share is going to be key in offsetting any LibDem lost support.

    The SNP are not exactly riding high at the moment. The Scottish government looks tired and incompetent and there is the Salmond trial. I will be surprised if their vote share is up at all at the end of the night. But the Labour seats (bar Edinburgh South) are pretty much nailed on gains. Even if they lose NE Fife they will be up overall. The question is by how many. If the Tory losses can be held to 5 they will have done well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    edited November 2019
    How big is the Venn diagram intersect in Scotland between those who voted Brexit and those who want to save the union? 38% voted to Leave the EU in 2016, 55% voted to save the union in 2014. The maths says there doesn't have to be any overlap. Gut feel says there is a significant overlap. Gut feel also says whatever that overlap, the Conservatives are the only party in this election for those inside that overlap.

    The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.

    I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.

    Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?
  • How big is the Venn diagram intersect in Scotland between those who voted Brexit and those who want to save the union? 38% voted to Leave the EU in 2016, 55% voted to save the union in 2014. The maths says there doesn't have to be any overlap. Gut feel says there is a significant overlap. Gut feel also says whatever that overlap, the Conservatives are the only party in this election for those inside that overlap.

    The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.

    I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.

    Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?

    That's what I'm doing - hoping others will follow. Hard to tactically vote against a party polling c. 40pc
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Grotty weather. Hope Sheffield and the rest of South Yorkshire is alright in the coming days.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019
    On Edinburgh North & Leith, which in normal times would look like a highly competitive three-way marginal, it may be worth noting that the only election communication we have received in the constituency so far is the "Meet the next PM Jo Swinson" brochure, from the party that lost its deposit and finished fourth last time.

    Perhaps I ought to check the ward results in the last council election to see whether one of the three parties is neglecting a stronghold, but on the face of it all three parties have decided to concentrate on more competitive seats elsewhere.
  • How big is the Venn diagram intersect in Scotland between those who voted Brexit and those who want to save the union? 38% voted to Leave the EU in 2016, 55% voted to save the union in 2014. The maths says there doesn't have to be any overlap. Gut feel says there is a significant overlap. Gut feel also says whatever that overlap, the Conservatives are the only party in this election for those inside that overlap.

    The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.

    I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.

    Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?

    Not seen a Venn diagram but I've seen the electorate split into four quadrants based on the referendums (I've just searched for it but I couldn't find it) by YouGov. Basically the four quadrants are very similarly sized - Scotland is split four ways at the moment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740
    edited November 2019
    It appears that even Labour has some sort of a limit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50369905

    Keith Vaz not standing again. The 2017 Parliament had a remarkably thick level of scum. We can only hope that there is less in the next batch.

    Well, when I say limits:
    "In a statement, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said: "Keith Vaz was among the pioneering group of black and Asian Labour MPs elected in 1987. I was proud to support his selection and incredibly proud when he won, taking the seat from the Tories.

    "Keith has made a substantial and significant contribution to public life, both as a constituency MP for the people of Leicester and for the Asian community across the country. He has helped to pave the way for more BAME people to become involved in politics.""
  • How big is the Venn diagram intersect in Scotland between those who voted Brexit and those who want to save the union? 38% voted to Leave the EU in 2016, 55% voted to save the union in 2014. The maths says there doesn't have to be any overlap. Gut feel says there is a significant overlap. Gut feel also says whatever that overlap, the Conservatives are the only party in this election for those inside that overlap.

    The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.

    I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.

    Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?

    Good post. It’s why I think SCon seats will be rather sticky in defence.

    I could also see them losing 3-4 seats of the 13 but picking up 2-3 elsewhere, which is why I took the 11-16 seat band with Ladbrokes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,389
    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413
  • ydoethur said:

    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

    I expect the Chinese are delighted they can buy up all our infrastructure and industry at rock bottom prices.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,389
    edited November 2019
    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Artist said:

    Looking through the constituency odds I didn't realise how many 50/50 battles there were between the Tories and the SNP. The bookies seem to think they have at least a fighting chance of holding in every seat apart from Stirling. I thought the feeling was that they were going to be wiped out?

    We just never know, it'll be interesting to see what happens, specially in the close seats.
    People do not realise what a great job Ruth Davidson did. Scotland is a small place and I don’t even know who the Tory leader is in Scotland now and I am a Tory party member. My seat is a snp Tory marginal but whilst the snp are everywhere the tories are nowhere. Boris is not liked here and neither is brexit so where is the motivation to vote?

    I can see Lib Dem’s doing very well and tories and labour going nowhere

    I do.

    Firstly, she was very impressive and, second, the SNP and nationalists were constantly sledging her.

    Which was (and is) very telling.
    We sledged Jim Murphy constantly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,389
    edited November 2019

    ydoethur said:

    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

    I expect the Chinese are delighted they can buy up all our infrastructure and industry at rock bottom prices.
    Yes. And it will still do the government no harm in the North East at this election even if 18 months from now they close the plant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,666

    How big is the Venn diagram intersect in Scotland between those who voted Brexit and those who want to save the union? 38% voted to Leave the EU in 2016, 55% voted to save the union in 2014. The maths says there doesn't have to be any overlap. Gut feel says there is a significant overlap. Gut feel also says whatever that overlap, the Conservatives are the only party in this election for those inside that overlap.

    The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.

    I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.

    Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?

    I think that we have to allow that a significant SNP Leave vote exists, not all Leavers favour SCon at all. Ruth Davidson was popular, outspoken for Remain, or at least the softest of Brexits. Then there is the posh English factor against BoZo. It looks to me that opinion has hardened shifted against Brexit, but particularly north of the border I imagine that the most orange of Scottish unionists are unimpressed by a Brexit deal that shafts their friends in the DUP.

    I have no local knowledge, but anticipate SLAB near total wipeout, SLD gain 1, so if SCon hold 4 seats then SNP on 50 looks about right.
  • As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,684
    Good piece Alastair.
  • As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    In 2017 the Lib Dem vote fell 0.7% points in Scotland. From 7.5 to 6.8%.

    In the North and North East this translated I to falls of 12.8% points , 15% points, 21% pooints etc

    Lib Dems are now polling 13% nationally in Scotland. Betting vast sums on them having a massive revival everywhere except where they were previously strong is a very brave potion to take.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852

    ydoethur said:

    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

    I expect the Chinese are delighted they can buy up all our infrastructure and industry at rock bottom prices.
    As no one else seems prepared to stump up the money for the considerable capital investment required, the selling price is almost irrelevant.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852
    To summarise the comments, no one has a clue, but someone will be correct on the 12th ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    edited November 2019
    Personally I think the SNP will take every Scottish Labour seat based on current polling but the Scottish Tories should hold at least 3 to 5 of theirs. The polls are also showing a swing from the SNP to LDs but only enough under FPTP for the LDs to take Fife North East from the SNP as mentioned. That swing could help the LDs more in the 2021 Holyrood elections which are partly under PR
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    To summarise the comments, no one has a clue, but someone will be correct on the 12th ?

    Yes. The question is "Do you think, in the face of declining Labour and Conservative vote and rising Lib Dem vote that even more tactical voting will take place than 2017?"

    Answer that question and that will inform you which way to bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,900

    ydoethur said:

    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

    I expect the Chinese are delighted they can buy up all our infrastructure and industry at rock bottom prices.
    Britain’s Brexit Firesale begins?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,389
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,666
    Alistair said:

    In 2017 the Lib Dem vote fell 0.7% points in Scotland. From 7.5 to 6.8%.

    In the North and North East this translated I to falls of 12.8% points , 15% points, 21% pooints etc

    Lib Dems are now polling 13% nationally in Scotland. Betting vast sums on them having a massive revival everywhere except where they were previously strong is a very brave potion to take.

    Certainly the SLD vote has been very well situated in the past, but Scots do seem to like parties with Scottish Leaders. It worked well for both Brown and Kennedy. It was surely a big factor for Ruth Davidson, who was also big South of the border, indeed thought of as a future national Con Leader by many.

    It may be worth looking as SLD prices in seats lost in 2015, but not yet regained.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    edited November 2019

    tlg86 said:

    The one thing Alastair hasn't touched on in this piece is turnout. What partly contributed to SNP losses last time out was that they didn't get out their 2015 voters in the same numbers in 2017. Will this be the case this time?

    I concur. Turnout is absolutely fundamental to judging how this might go north of the border.

    Media and spinners tried to portray UK GE 2017 as some kind of popular swing from the SNP to the Conservatives. It was nothing of the sort (except in Angus, to a laughably tiny extent). What really happened was:

    - massive swing SLD to SCon
    - big drop in SNP turnout

    This time round my guess is:

    - massive swing back from SCon to SLD
    - big rise in SNP turnout
    - modest swing SNP to SGrn, due to lots more Green candidates

    So, nearly a reversal.

    (One other point: the resignation of Ruth Davidson has *not* damaged Tory support. Nor has the total lack of SCon leadership. In fact both things may actually buoy up their vote a little. She was not popular among many right-wing people.)
    In 2015 the SNP got 50% and in 2017 the SNP got 37%, in 2015 the Scottish Tories got 15% and in 2017 the Scottish Tories got 29% and in 2015 the Scottish LDs got 7.5% and in 2017 they got 6.8% so there was an SNP to SCon swing in 2017 as well as a small swing from the SNP to Scottish Labour who rose from 24% to 27%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Personally I think the SNP will take every Scottish Labour seat based on current polling but the Scottish Tories should hold at least 3 to 5 of theirs. The polls are also showing a swing from the SNP to LDs but only enough under FPTP for the LDs to take Fife North East from the SNP as mentioned. That swing could help the LDs more in the 2021 Holyrood elections which are partly under PR

    SNP will not take Edinburgh South.

    Guaranteed fact.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse people
  • p.s. the weather is playing a part in proceedings. It's a very wet and quite cold November so far: mean CET is -0.6C below the 1961-1990 average which was already the coldest baseline the Met could have picked. That cold pattern looks set for the next two weeks, with the UK on the northern side of the polar front jet i.e. in persistent cold air mass.

    People batten down the hatches, no matter how many mod-cons. Only in the cities are things relatively unaffected.

    So if this continues and IF polling day is anything like this, I expect turnout to be down in a) rural areas and b) older generations.


    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    1961-90 is the World Meteorological Organisation baseline, so the Met Office are following the international standard.

    Central England Temperature in recent years has been ~1C above the average, so that makes -0.6C more like 1.6C below the recent average, which is close to the limits of normal variation. The only month since December 2010 to be more than 1C colder than the 1961-90 baseline was March 2013.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,389
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

    I expect the Chinese are delighted they can buy up all our infrastructure and industry at rock bottom prices.
    Britain’s Brexit Firesale begins?
    This sort of thing has been going on for years. It includes things like private schools and major utilities.

    It’s partly because of our trade deficit and partly because so many Chinese businesspeople prefer to keep a chunk of their assets outside China in a safe haven (although we’re trying our hardest to get rid of the last bit...).
  • Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    THis will do the Government no harm in the North east:

    British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

    I expect the Chinese are delighted they can buy up all our infrastructure and industry at rock bottom prices.
    As no one else seems prepared to stump up the money for the considerable capital investment required, the selling price is almost irrelevant.

    Perhaps but there’s a bigger picture here too.

    If I were HMG I wouldn’t touch the PRC with a bargepole.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,029
    Good analytical piece, thanks Alastair. Two points:

    1. We refer casually to pollsters updating their methodology from 2017 (I've seen this mentioned before). Do we actually know if anyone has done this, and if so who and how?

    2. A pretty fundamental point from the UK in general is how far people will see it as a Brexit election on Dec 12. From down south it's not obvious that the election is being fought in Scotland on either Indyref or Brexit; the SNP in particular seem to be majoring on the more subtle "This is another example of Westminster ignoring Scotland", which probably doesn't provoke unionists into tactical voting as much as a clear "This is about getting a new Indyref", but also doesn't especially appeal to voters with strong views on Brexit. But maybe it looks differently up there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Personally I think the SNP will take every Scottish Labour seat based on current polling but the Scottish Tories should hold at least 3 to 5 of theirs. The polls are also showing a swing from the SNP to LDs but only enough under FPTP for the LDs to take Fife North East from the SNP as mentioned. That swing could help the LDs more in the 2021 Holyrood elections which are partly under PR

    SNP will not take Edinburgh South.

    Guaranteed fact.
    Apologies should have added except Edinburgh South where Murray will hold on as a strong Unionist and non Corbynista with LD and Tory tactical voting
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,135
    Charles said:

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse people
    The seat is NW Hampshire.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Nigelb said:

    To summarise the comments, no one has a clue, but someone will be correct on the 12th ?

    Everyone will claim they are correct and they are the cleverest person in the room?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    edited November 2019
    Chinese police shoot pro democracy protestor in Hong Kong

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50370715
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,684
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    In 2017 the SNP made the election about Brexit. Completely downplayed Independence. Tried to appeal to Remainders.

    Two things happened:
    Their vote went down to 37% with activists deeply disgruntled.
    Their opponents and the media constantly screamed - "The SNP keep banging on about independence non stop vote no to Independence.

    So, given this why would the SNP not make this election about independence?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,684
    JohnO said:

    Charles said:

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse people
    The seat is NW Hampshire.
    But my seat is Newcastle upon Tyne North?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    The skills wallets are real!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,684
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,389

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    Agreed. But I think they do need to make gains, quite significant gains, to even claim a mandate for indyref2. I would have said 40 therefore is around the minimum.

    Interesting to read @Alistair’s comment about the 2017 campaign. They’re certainly not making that mistake this time. However, I wonder if they’re making the May mistake of trying to run a single divisive issue campaign that will force their opponents to coalesce around one candidate, however suboptimal.

    If they go backwards (not that I’m expecting them to) surely that’s game over for Sturgeon?

    Have a good morning
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,434
    SunnyJim said:

    viewcode said:


    Woah there, it doesn't work like that. The only people that gives orders to the Royal Navy is the Royal Navy (and the Queen and Defence Minister). Not the Army, not the RAF, and not the USMC. That's why there has to be a Minister of Defence and Chief of the Defence Staff, so orders can be passed from service to service. It's also why joint operations are so difficult, and why the Army and Navy have their own little air forces (Army Air Corps and Fleet Air Arm) instead of relying on the RAF. It doesn't matter what his rank is, if he's not in the same service he can't issue orders. Boss my arse.

    The picture is of a USMC 4* being escorted by 2 x RN officers, as a matter of basic courtesy they would be looking to impress on their guest the capabilities of a very new ship. I have lost count of the number of similar visits i've by VSO's I have been involved in and they all follow the same routine.

    If anybody infers a conclusion in regards to the chain-of-command from the picture then they are mistaken. Yes, the 4* clearly outranks the other officers but in no scenario would he be issuing orders on their boat. That would be ludicrous.

    To give you an example:

    Aircrew officer shot down during conflict and is located by a team of SF headed by a Corporal. Do you think for a moment that officer is going to turn round and declare that as he is 6 or 7 ranks higher than anybody else he is going to take charge of their extraction?

    Is he hell as like. He's going to shut up and do exactly as he is told by even the most junior rank there because they are the experts relevant to the particular scenario they are in.
    Well quite. It was a picture of more junior people being deferential to a guest for christ's sake, youd have to have an enormous chip on your shoulder to turn that into hard proof of power dynamics.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,607
    Just been reading Tim's tweets on the last thread psted by Carlotta which goes under the name 'Forgotten-Genius' tag. Still one of the funniest posters this site has had;

    "This is like the Iranian tactics during the Iran Iraq war.
    The Corbynistas are throwing massive numbers of ideologically crazed anti-Semites at the artillery hoping that some are bound to get through".
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,029
    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    Where do you get the "over 65" bit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,434
    edited November 2019
    The snp have been very impressive at turning a dominant vote share into an absurdly dominant seat share. I'd expect closer to 2015 than 2017 but it's a fair point that with the massive churn in scotland there are many marginal on both directions.

    DavidL's point about brexit unwinding the tactical unionist vote is crucial- with plenty of tight seats that could see plenty change hands even with a small effect.

    Some Nationalists are expecting a near total unionist wipeout again, but then it was supposed to be laughable the Tories would get more than a handful last time.

    I'm still saying SNP high 40s though. Stuartdickson seems right on potential for scon to sld swing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,286

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    The skills wallets are real!
    That's what I thought too. It's obviously a key policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,666
    Pissing down again in the East Midlands and more expected. Flooding could be an unexpected issue in this election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,920
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    Where do you get the "over 65" bit?
    Sorry 'under 65' paid in at 25, 40 and 55
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Fewer opinion polls in this GE than any in living memory.

    Fact?
  • HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    Despite the real evidence that lower corporation tax rates increase the tax yield, both the Libdem's & Labour continue to trot out the line that they'll get more revenue with higher rates.

    They must reckon voters are as economically illiterate as they are.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    edited November 2019
    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.
  • On Edinburgh North & Leith, which in normal times would look like a highly competitive three-way marginal, it may be worth noting that the only election communication we have received in the constituency so far is the "Meet the next PM Jo Swinson" brochure, from the party that lost its deposit and finished fourth last time.

    Perhaps I ought to check the ward results in the last council election to see whether one of the three parties is neglecting a stronghold, but on the face of it all three parties have decided to concentrate on more competitive seats elsewhere.

    It looks like our ward is not the strongest ward for any of the parties, so perhaps we'll hear more from all of them once they've broadened out from their respective bases.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    HYUFD said:
    IIRC she had no idea who her French counterpart was either. Hopeless.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:
    I'm just presuming these are all faked by now.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Do the Conservatives have to weaponise immigration to get this election over the line? Because there are dangers aren't there? BIG dangers.

    Firstly, inviting scrutiny.
    The argument will hinge upon selling not no immigration, but need and reasoning for controlled immigration. To go into that argument do you need to have good record of delivery on past promises? Do you need to have a working policy? Do you need to have a proposed improved policy without holes that rips apart it’s credibility?

    Secondly taking the argument into esoteric areas, and other areas of policy. Will you be dragged into an argument describing the downsides of uncontrolled immigration, on housing, struggling NHS, already unpopular welfare policies? Will it look like you are trying to blame immigration for policy failures in those areas? Will spokesman or candidates (or some who is not a spokesman but back room geek) be daft enough to link it to the leave remain argument, remain means to accept unfettered uncontrolled immigration, only to leave can we have a policy that does something about it? Will it create an open goal to attacks about policies seeking to divide not reunite a divided country? Will it increase prejudice towards people whose voice sounds foreign or skin is, as a Labour MP and Corbyn critic said “a funny tinge”?

    Thirdly, what happens if you go there, making this promise prominent in your campaign, but don’t deliver after the election?

    Are elections won with bold campaigning, or blown with poorly thought through gaffs?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2019

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    Foxy said:

    How big is the Venn diagram intersect in Scotland between those who voted Brexit and those who want to save the union? 38% voted to Leave the EU in 2016, 55% voted to save the union in 2014. The maths says there doesn't have to be any overlap. Gut feel says there is a significant overlap. Gut feel also says whatever that overlap, the Conservatives are the only party in this election for those inside that overlap.

    The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.

    I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.

    Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?

    I think that we have to allow that a significant SNP Leave vote exists, not all Leavers favour SCon at all. Ruth Davidson was popular, outspoken for Remain, or at least the softest of Brexits. Then there is the posh English factor against BoZo. It looks to me that opinion has hardened shifted against Brexit, but particularly north of the border I imagine that the most orange of Scottish unionists are unimpressed by a Brexit deal that shafts their friends in the DUP.

    I have no local knowledge, but anticipate SLAB near total wipeout, SLD gain 1, so if SCon hold 4 seats then SNP on 50 looks about right.
    I've always been struck by the propensity of Highland Scots to vote for the candidate not the party. Expect some surprises.
  • Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Banterman said:

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    Despite the real evidence that lower corporation tax rates increase the tax yield,
    Citation needed.
  • JohnO said:

    Charles said:

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse people
    The seat is NW Hampshire.
    But my seat is Newcastle upon Tyne North?
    Yes. City then geographical indicator, geographical indicator then county.

    West Barsetshire,, Silverbridge Central.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,666
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20

    Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,607
    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899

    Morning all,

    Too many thicko nationalists in Scotland,

    I'm on SNP under 50.5 but can't say I'm overly confident.

    The brains trust has arrived, let the gibbering begin.
  • https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193804576295735296

    She may as well just tell us he is unfit to be PM and get it off her chest.
  • Fewer opinion polls in this GE than any in living memory.

    Fact?

    There will probably be fewer published now because they cost money and newspapers can't afford too many of them.
  • AdrianFrancisAdrianFrancis Posts: 13
    edited November 2019
    Fascinating as always! Rare to see my constituency, Paisley and Renfrewshire North mentioned anywhere.

    Other than Stirling and Aberdeen South, Tories seem quite optimistic about retaining most seats here. I’m also expecting Labour to collapse in East Renfrewshire, with most of that vote going Blue. The Cons also have outside chances of gaining P&NP and East Lothian. East Lothian being a current Labour seat. Unless there’s another late surge for Corbyn, it goes without saying that this election will be brutal for SLab.

    It’s possible, and in my opinion probable, that the reduced turnout for the SNP in North East and rural areas was due to the party’s move to the left over the years, rather than apathy or election fatigue. After the near clean-sweep of 2015, which obviously couldn’t be repeated, 2017 was a realignment of the SNP vote itself. It’s no coincidence that three of their six pre-referendum seats were lost in 2017. Some of them held for decades beforehand. Don’t expect them to come back anytime soon.

    This trend can also be seen in similar seats from the most recent Holyrood elections in 2016 - with the SNP losing votes from 2011, which was well before their 2015 surge. Links below, need to copy and paste manually as this site is differentiating the brackets for some reason!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_South_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,684

    JohnO said:

    Charles said:

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse people
    The seat is NW Hampshire.
    But my seat is Newcastle upon Tyne North?
    Yes. City then geographical indicator, geographical indicator then county.

    West Barsetshire,, Silverbridge Central.

    Ah yes. Clearly I misread your post. Sorry about that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899
    HYUFD said:
    Getting his lies and fake stories lined up then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,434

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    This seems to happen with lots of seats, south west wiltshire referred to as wiltshire south west. I guess it's to make it simpler to find multiple seats in an area eg wiltshire, together in an alphabetical list, but that doesnt explain Fife does it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,518

    Good morning, everyone.

    Grotty weather. Hope Sheffield and the rest of South Yorkshire is alright in the coming days.

    Sunny, cold, and barely a cloud in the sky this morning down here. I hope the rain abates up north.
  • Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
    Dialogue involves talking to both sides. Corbyn supports one side and won't even talk to Chuka let alone Israel etc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,434

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
    Automatically ruling out action is absurd as automatically chomping at the bit to take action.

    Perhaps he might consider situations on their merits rather than instinctive ideology? Plenty of gung ho types should, so should he.
This discussion has been closed.