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Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible.
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https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1193086028548059142?s=20
I can see Lib Dem’s doing very well and tories and labour going nowhere
Media and spinners tried to portray UK GE 2017 as some kind of popular swing from the SNP to the Conservatives. It was nothing of the sort (except in Angus, to a laughably tiny extent). What really happened was:
- massive swing SLD to SCon
- big drop in SNP turnout
This time round my guess is:
- massive swing back from SCon to SLD
- big rise in SNP turnout
- modest swing SNP to SGrn, due to lots more Green candidates
So, nearly a reversal.
(One other point: the resignation of Ruth Davidson has *not* damaged Tory support. Nor has the total lack of SCon leadership. In fact both things may actually buoy up their vote a little. She was not popular among many right-wing people.)
Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?
Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.
People batten down the hatches, no matter how many mod-cons. Only in the cities are things relatively unaffected.
So if this continues and IF polling day is anything like this, I expect turnout to be down in a) rural areas and b) older generations.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Yes in 2016 Scotland voted 62/38 to remain but that was heavily influenced by the Central belt domination in the Scottish population. While it is correct that all 32 Scottish council areas voted Remain, the more rural the more it was closer to 50/50 and where the Tories won most seats in the old Grampian region, the Leave vote was most heavily concentrated.
I have said on here several times I believe the SNP is playing this campaign wrong by going all out on IndyRef2. Instead of making it a Brexit election, they are colouring it as an IndyRef2 election. That may just encourage swing voters to stay with the leading anti-SNP party in their patch. Frankly it means little if the anticipated fall in the SCon vote is in places like Glasgow or Lanarkshire if it is holding up well in the North-east or the South of Scotland.
How East Renfrewshire votes will be fascinating. As recently as 1992 it was the safest Tory seat in Scotland with an 11,000+ majority. Jim Murphy turned that round for Labour but now Paul Masterton is defending the seat for the SCons. He was the one Scot who rebelled against the Brexit position of the party but voted for it at just the correct times to avoid being suspended. He also represents the constituency with the largest Jewish population in Scotland.
I would have put Stephen Kerr at the greatest risk in Stirling but I'm not sure the SNP hasn't blundered by parachuting in their lead MEP Alyn Smith. A case of "vote for us to stop Brexit but we don't believe we will succeed so we are finding a safe new job for our favourite Euro MP!" That should go down well on the doorsteps.
I'm already on the defence in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, and in Aberdeen South, am backing SCons seats north of 6 holds, and sold the SNP at 50.5.
I do have a bet on SCons taking Lanark & Hamilton East, though. They are targeting it.
Something I think I would be worried about as a tory is this. For all the talk about Lab to Con swing, the raw fact remains that the tories are ALSO down on last time. It's just that Labour are currently doing worse. This is not a strong Conservative position to be in at the moment.
Firstly, she was very impressive and, second, the SNP and nationalists were constantly sledging her.
Which was (and is) very telling.
I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.
My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.
None of us are cancelling it.
Too many thicko nationalists in Scotland,
I'm on SNP under 50.5 but can't say I'm overly confident.
The risk is that the tactical voting of Unionists unwinds somewhat on the anvil of Brexit. More votes for the SLDs will, as Alastair points out, be wasted outside NE Fife.
I am clinging to 2 hopes. Firstly, 38% of Scots voted to leave the EU. That is a big pool in which the Tories fish pretty much alone. The 62% is shared by all the other parties. Secondly, there are a fair number of Unionist ex Labour supporters who have just given up on their party completely. Squeezing that Labour share is going to be key in offsetting any LibDem lost support.
The SNP are not exactly riding high at the moment. The Scottish government looks tired and incompetent and there is the Salmond trial. I will be surprised if their vote share is up at all at the end of the night. But the Labour seats (bar Edinburgh South) are pretty much nailed on gains. Even if they lose NE Fife they will be up overall. The question is by how many. If the Tory losses can be held to 5 they will have done well.
The SNP are for independence and anti-Brexit. The Labour Party has shown enough leg on a second referendum on each issue to be suspect. The LibDems are avowedly anti-Brexit whilst proclaiming to be for the Union. But their only realistic hope of power in Westminster is as junior partner in a Labour-SNP-LibDem coalition. So their ability to stop Brexit might be enhanced, but their ability to protect the union is very much not.
I am a naive soul who knows nothing of the mindset of the Scottish electorate. But it does strike me as possible that there is a sizeable pool for the Scottish Conservatives to fish in. All the more so when you see how lumpy the pro-Brexit vote is in the better prospects for the Tories: Brexit was 45% in Angus and Aberdeenshire, 50% in Moray for example. All of Ayshire was above 40%.
Isn't it just possible that the pro-Union, "Get Brexit Done" voters might this once coallesce around the SCons?
Grotty weather. Hope Sheffield and the rest of South Yorkshire is alright in the coming days.
Perhaps I ought to check the ward results in the last council election to see whether one of the three parties is neglecting a stronghold, but on the face of it all three parties have decided to concentrate on more competitive seats elsewhere.
Keith Vaz not standing again. The 2017 Parliament had a remarkably thick level of scum. We can only hope that there is less in the next batch.
Well, when I say limits:
"In a statement, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said: "Keith Vaz was among the pioneering group of black and Asian Labour MPs elected in 1987. I was proud to support his selection and incredibly proud when he won, taking the seat from the Tories.
"Keith has made a substantial and significant contribution to public life, both as a constituency MP for the people of Leicester and for the Asian community across the country. He has helped to pave the way for more BAME people to become involved in politics.""
I could also see them losing 3-4 seats of the 13 but picking up 2-3 elsewhere, which is why I took the 11-16 seat band with Ladbrokes.
British Steel agrees £70m rescue with Chinese firm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413
Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.
But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.
I have no local knowledge, but anticipate SLAB near total wipeout, SLD gain 1, so if SCon hold 4 seats then SNP on 50 looks about right.
In the North and North East this translated I to falls of 12.8% points , 15% points, 21% pooints etc
Lib Dems are now polling 13% nationally in Scotland. Betting vast sums on them having a massive revival everywhere except where they were previously strong is a very brave potion to take.
Answer that question and that will inform you which way to bet.
It may be worth looking as SLD prices in seats lost in 2015, but not yet regained.
Guaranteed fact.
Central England Temperature in recent years has been ~1C above the average, so that makes -0.6C more like 1.6C below the recent average, which is close to the limits of normal variation. The only month since December 2010 to be more than 1C colder than the 1961-90 baseline was March 2013.
It’s partly because of our trade deficit and partly because so many Chinese businesspeople prefer to keep a chunk of their assets outside China in a safe haven (although we’re trying our hardest to get rid of the last bit...).
If I were HMG I wouldn’t touch the PRC with a bargepole.
1. We refer casually to pollsters updating their methodology from 2017 (I've seen this mentioned before). Do we actually know if anyone has done this, and if so who and how?
2. A pretty fundamental point from the UK in general is how far people will see it as a Brexit election on Dec 12. From down south it's not obvious that the election is being fought in Scotland on either Indyref or Brexit; the SNP in particular seem to be majoring on the more subtle "This is another example of Westminster ignoring Scotland", which probably doesn't provoke unionists into tactical voting as much as a clear "This is about getting a new Indyref", but also doesn't especially appeal to voters with strong views on Brexit. But maybe it looks differently up there?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50370715
Two things happened:
Their vote went down to 37% with activists deeply disgruntled.
Their opponents and the media constantly screamed - "The SNP keep banging on about independence non stop vote no to Independence.
So, given this why would the SNP not make this election about independence?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650
Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
Interesting to read @Alistair’s comment about the 2017 campaign. They’re certainly not making that mistake this time. However, I wonder if they’re making the May mistake of trying to run a single divisive issue campaign that will force their opponents to coalesce around one candidate, however suboptimal.
If they go backwards (not that I’m expecting them to) surely that’s game over for Sturgeon?
Have a good morning
"This is like the Iranian tactics during the Iran Iraq war.
The Corbynistas are throwing massive numbers of ideologically crazed anti-Semites at the artillery hoping that some are bound to get through".
DavidL's point about brexit unwinding the tactical unionist vote is crucial- with plenty of tight seats that could see plenty change hands even with a small effect.
Some Nationalists are expecting a near total unionist wipeout again, but then it was supposed to be laughable the Tories would get more than a handful last time.
I'm still saying SNP high 40s though. Stuartdickson seems right on potential for scon to sld swing.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20
Fact?
They must reckon voters are as economically illiterate as they are.
Barely bothering to try frankly.
Firstly, inviting scrutiny.
The argument will hinge upon selling not no immigration, but need and reasoning for controlled immigration. To go into that argument do you need to have good record of delivery on past promises? Do you need to have a working policy? Do you need to have a proposed improved policy without holes that rips apart it’s credibility?
Secondly taking the argument into esoteric areas, and other areas of policy. Will you be dragged into an argument describing the downsides of uncontrolled immigration, on housing, struggling NHS, already unpopular welfare policies? Will it look like you are trying to blame immigration for policy failures in those areas? Will spokesman or candidates (or some who is not a spokesman but back room geek) be daft enough to link it to the leave remain argument, remain means to accept unfettered uncontrolled immigration, only to leave can we have a policy that does something about it? Will it create an open goal to attacks about policies seeking to divide not reunite a divided country? Will it increase prejudice towards people whose voice sounds foreign or skin is, as a Labour MP and Corbyn critic said “a funny tinge”?
Thirdly, what happens if you go there, making this promise prominent in your campaign, but don’t deliver after the election?
Are elections won with bold campaigning, or blown with poorly thought through gaffs?
Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.
And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.
It's better to talk ...
West Barsetshire,, Silverbridge Central.
She may as well just tell us he is unfit to be PM and get it off her chest.
Other than Stirling and Aberdeen South, Tories seem quite optimistic about retaining most seats here. I’m also expecting Labour to collapse in East Renfrewshire, with most of that vote going Blue. The Cons also have outside chances of gaining P&NP and East Lothian. East Lothian being a current Labour seat. Unless there’s another late surge for Corbyn, it goes without saying that this election will be brutal for SLab.
It’s possible, and in my opinion probable, that the reduced turnout for the SNP in North East and rural areas was due to the party’s move to the left over the years, rather than apathy or election fatigue. After the near clean-sweep of 2015, which obviously couldn’t be repeated, 2017 was a realignment of the SNP vote itself. It’s no coincidence that three of their six pre-referendum seats were lost in 2017. Some of them held for decades beforehand. Don’t expect them to come back anytime soon.
This trend can also be seen in similar seats from the most recent Holyrood elections in 2016 - with the SNP losing votes from 2011, which was well before their 2015 surge. Links below, need to copy and paste manually as this site is differentiating the brackets for some reason!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_South_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
Perhaps he might consider situations on their merits rather than instinctive ideology? Plenty of gung ho types should, so should he.