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  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
    Dialogue involves talking to both sides. Corbyn supports one side and won't even talk to Chuka let alone Israel etc
    Spot on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.

    Look at what she is being asked to defend.

    Would your heart be in it?
  • Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    They will have less chance of being killed as he would keep them away from any military action?
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20

    Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.
    DJL's corollary: rich people support regressive indirect taxes such as VAT (doubled by Mrs Thatcher and increased to 20 per cent by that nice Mr Osborne).
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
    Automatically ruling out action is absurd as automatically chomping at the bit to take action.

    Perhaps he might consider situations on their merits rather than instinctive ideology? Plenty of gung ho types should, so should he.
    I'd rather somebody who instinctively makes the right call than somebody who analytically makes the wrong one
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JohnO said:

    Charles said:

    As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    Although Hampshire NW likes to confuse people
    The seat is NW Hampshire.
    Are questioning how the people of Hampshire NW wish to self-identify?

    (It was George Younger’s fault)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
    Stunning spin

    He hates the West and supports our enemies

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....

    Look at Stop the War when Corbyn was front and centre - It seems only some conflicts were worthy of condemnation
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 359

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    Where do you get the "over 65" bit?
    Where does he get the "working age" bit from?

    The policy I voted for was a LIFELONG wallet (at present in England only) created at 25, then topped up at 40 and 55, which beneficiaries could draw down at any time of their lives thereafter on approved skill acquisition programmes.

    Including at the increasingly common stage between 60 and 70 when someone wants to retire from their conventional job and - well, consult worldwide on their expertise, develop a home-based business or work three days a week for their preferred charity providing skills kind of related to what they were doing.

    Maybe chav Tories intend after 60 sloping off to the Costa del Sawnoff Shotgun (if it'll admit Brexited scroungers into their health system) and pickle themselves to death. Real grownups want to spend their last few decades doing something useful.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Floater said:

    Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.

    Look at what she is being asked to defend.

    Would your heart be in it?
    If she cannot defend the policy she should resign.
  • Floater said:

    Is Thornberry ill with the old campaign flu this morning? Seems all over the place.

    Look at what she is being asked to defend.

    Would your heart be in it?
    Maybe @rottenborough is right and she is ill. There is a lot of it going round, to use a medical term.
  • Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193806465598992384?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,518
    edited November 2019

    Fascinating as always! Rare to see my constituency, Paisley and Renfrewshire North mentioned anywhere.

    Other than Stirling and Aberdeen South, Tories seem quite optimistic about retaining most seats here. I’m also expecting Labour to collapse in East Renfrewshire, with most of that vote going Blue. The Cons also have outside chances of gaining P&NP and East Lothian. East Lothian being a current Labour seat. Unless there’s another late surge for Corbyn, it goes without saying that this election will be brutal for SLab.

    It’s possible, and in my opinion probable, that the reduced turnout for the SNP in North East and rural areas was due to the party’s move to the left over the years, rather than apathy or election fatigue. After the near clean-sweep of 2015, which obviously couldn’t be repeated, 2017 was a realignment of the SNP vote itself. It’s no coincidence that three of their six pre-referendum seats were lost in 2017. Some of them held for decades beforehand. Don’t expect them to come back anytime soon.

    This trend can also be seen in similar seats from the most recent Holyrood elections in 2016 - with the SNP losing votes from 2011, which was well before their 2015 surge. Links below, need to copy and paste manually as this site is differentiating the brackets for some reason!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_South_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)

    That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.

    You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Morning all,

    Too many thicko nationalists in Scotland,

    I'm on SNP under 50.5 but can't say I'm overly confident.

    Seats SNP cannot take unless it is an apocslypse

    Orkeny & Shetland
    Edinburgh South
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire, Cyldesdale and Tweedshire

    So the SNP maximum is 55

    Barring a collapse in tactical voting none of the Lib Dem seats are going to fall and the Lib Dems should take NE Fife.

    SNP Maximum is therefore 51

    SNP under 50.5 is a great bet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,666
    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    He will save their lives by keeping them at home!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,121
    edited November 2019
    Interesting, Alistair - thanks. Especially for the not-especially-easy-
    -to-compile table.

    As a Brexiteer I'll give you a very old-fashioned look on that "try not to offend".

    With the SNP it is always good to remember that they are offended anyway before you say anything.

    :-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20

    Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.
    DJL's corollary: rich people support regressive indirect taxes such as VAT (doubled by Mrs Thatcher and increased to 20 per cent by that nice Mr Osborne).
    Marquee Mark's Maxim: money flees taxation.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,029

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899
    MattW said:

    Interesting, Alistair - thanks.

    As a Brexiteer I'll give you a very old-fashioned look on that "try not to offend".

    With the SNP it is always good to remember that they are offended anyway before you say anything.

    :-)

    Unlike Tories :s
  • tlg86 said:

    The one thing Alastair hasn't touched on in this piece is turnout. What partly contributed to SNP losses last time out was that they didn't get out their 2015 voters in the same numbers in 2017. Will this be the case this time?

    A few percent less and we’ll be at 2010 turnout levels. Given the talk of low turnout due to the time of year and dark nights, it’s very possible. Which would have been unthinkable, so soon after the high turnout in 2015.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251

    Fewer opinion polls in this GE than any in living memory.

    Fact?

    There will probably be fewer published now because they cost money and newspapers can't afford too many of them.
    And because they continue to show chunky Tory majorities. No news there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,434

    kle4 said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...
    Automatically ruling out action is absurd as automatically chomping at the bit to take action.

    Perhaps he might consider situations on their merits rather than instinctive ideology? Plenty of gung ho types should, so should he.
    I'd rather somebody who instinctively makes the right call than somebody who analytically makes the wrong one
    It wont always be the right call though. Usually it will. But not always. Doing something without thought means it isn't even a moral choice it's an instinct.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193806465598992384?s=20
    On 11 November of all dates. You have to wonder whether tory strategists factored this in when choosing a December election.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,715
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20

    Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.
    Quite. The figures for those supporting other people paying taxes, free stuff generally, actions which might hit some fat cats and so are more or less irrelevant. What is interesting in these figures is the substantial numbers who are unwilling to support such populist notions.

    The fact that no party is going into this election on the basis of balancing the books and substantially paying back our debts instead of impoverishing our grandchildren is interesting.
  • I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Good morning, islamophobes
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,205
    Morning all :)

    To change the mood a lot, some interesting thoughts coming out of a report on public spending by the Institute of Government which contains this nugget from Nick Davies, the Programme Director:

    “The parties are coming into this election with big promises on public service spending.
    “But before they turn on the taps, they need to be honest with the public about the trade-offs they are making between the level of taxation and the performance of public services.”

    The monies so far pledged are the equivalent of running hard to stand still. The IoG raises serious concerns abou three areas - the funding of prisons, local Government and adult social care. Regarding the latter, any new Government needs to put in an extra £1 billion each year simply to keep pace with demand.

    I'm increasingly of the view the spending and therefore borrowing commitments of both Conservative and Labour programmes are going to mean big tax rises down the road if they are implemented.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,739
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    He will save their lives by keeping them at home!
    Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,715
    edited November 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193806465598992384?s=20
    On 11 November of all dates. You have to wonder whether tory strategists factored this in when choosing a December election.
    In the impossible circumstances I think she was quite gallant, standing on the burning deck as the ship gently sank. I might have felt sorry for her but then I recalled her uncomprehending tweet about the loyalties of white van man and my heart hardened.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the ending
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    "The big risk for the SNP is that there is greatly increased tactical voting this time round from unionists."

    Is there any evidence for any increase in tactical voting? If anything, I suspect there will be less unionist tactical voting this time. The realities of Brexit are taking attention away from nat/yoon politics, and what you see in the polling is a rise for the strongest two Remain parties.
  • malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.
    As opposed to the idiots who vote for bigoted hate filled nationalists perhaps.
  • No doubt the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats. I would simply urge caution.

    No doubt Britnats on here will claim that the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats, on the basis of very little evidence.
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    As a nationalist I am sure you will be able to recommend him a supplier
  • Noo said:

    "The big risk for the SNP is that there is greatly increased tactical voting this time round from unionists."

    Is there any evidence for any increase in tactical voting? If anything, I suspect there will be less unionist tactical voting this time. The realities of Brexit are taking attention away from nat/yoon politics, and what you see in the polling is a rise for the strongest two Remain parties.

    Did you miss the very next sentence?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019
    I'm a bit confused by the SNP two referendum strategy.

    As I understand it their rationale for a second Scottish Independence referendum is that Brexit changes the terms on which the 2014 referendum was fought. That makes sense.

    However, if we have a second Brexit referendum and vote to Remain, then doesn't that imply the justification for a second Scottish Independence referendum disappears?

    And if you have the second Scottish referendum first, then isn't it immediately invalidated by the result of the second Brexit referendum (using the logic for a second Scottish referendum)?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the ending
    So trite.

    Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's most popular promise is taxing the rich more

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1193793415114379265?s=20

    Foxys dictum of taxation: Fair taxes are those paid by other people.
    DJL's corollary: rich people support regressive indirect taxes such as VAT (doubled by Mrs Thatcher and increased to 20 per cent by that nice Mr Osborne).
    Marquee Mark's Maxim: money flees taxation.
    Noo's Rejoinder: Denmark is a rich country
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Charles said:

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the ending
    Thanks, happily remarried but its always a bit of a jolt on the 11th.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.
    As opposed to the idiots who vote for bigoted hate filled nationalists perhaps.
    So, now we've established both unionists and nationalists are stupid, what next?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
  • I'm a bit confused by the SNP two referendum strategy.

    As I understand it their rationale for a second Scottish Independence referendum is that Brexit changes the terms on which the 2014 referendum was fought. That makes sense.

    The separatists were never going to accept the result of the first referendum - they've just got a nice brexity excuse now - Hopefully a Tory majority will occur so there won't be another, definitely not divisive, indyref2 for a while yet.
  • Mr. Root, my condolences :(
  • Banterman said:

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    Despite the real evidence that lower corporation tax rates increase the tax yield, both the Libdem's & Labour continue to trot out the line that they'll get more revenue with higher rates.

    They must reckon voters are as economically illiterate as they are.
    Sadly it is true. Apparently 52% of people voted for Brexit, which is probably about as economically illiterate as it is possible to get.
  • Skills wallet?

    FFS
  • Charles said:

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the ending
    So trite.

    Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.
    Don't criticise someone for trying to be nice

    Trite, my arse
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Floater said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
    You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,739
    11th Nov is Taranto Night and the only night of the year I drink. I am usually called upon to recount the "Hong Kong Story" which will never be told on pb.com as constitutions are too delicate to take it. It makes the "Poland Story" look like Enid Blyton.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    "The big risk for the SNP is that there is greatly increased tactical voting this time round from unionists."

    Is there any evidence for any increase in tactical voting? If anything, I suspect there will be less unionist tactical voting this time. The realities of Brexit are taking attention away from nat/yoon politics, and what you see in the polling is a rise for the strongest two Remain parties.

    Did you miss the very next sentence?
    Oddly, yes I did. My apologies.
  • Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
  • As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    I didn't realise you had broken a general rule rather than the specific one of failing to give due notice to the unique reluctance of NE Fife to be lumped together with the rest of Fife. North East Fife used to be a district council under the old Scottish local govt set up, it has such a distinct identity and the name is used so frequently locally that seeing the constituency written as Fife NE just looks crazy. Of course I haven't lived there since 1994 so maybe it is more integrated into the rest of the county than it was back then. The fact the SNP are strong across Fife probably helps, Vs when it was Labour Fife Vs Liberal/Tory NE Fife.
  • Floater said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
    You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.
    Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Charles said:

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the ending
    So trite.

    Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.
    Don't criticise someone for trying to be nice

    No one else can speak for your own pain. It's very personal.

    I'm twitchy on it because I've been through a shed load of serious trauma and this is a bad date for me too. Anything that tries to lightly waft away the pain and sorrow gets my goat.

    There was a brilliant interview with Andrew Strauss t'other day on R4. He was taking about how rubbish we are at dealing with grief in this country. We don't speak about it. We are scared to. The pain. The death.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,972

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    What if I and a couple of my mates fancied @Mysticrose's house/flat/brightly-coloured tent?

    All good that we come over and occupy it?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Floater said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
    You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.
    Being in close proximity does not determine ownership.
    We shouldn't behave like colonial arseholes for a lump of rock 8000 miles away.

    It's pathetic.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
    What's the difference between self determination and nationalism, in your mind?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,302
    edited November 2019

    Charles said:

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    It will always be sad, but hopefully over time it will be less difficult. I haven’t been through the same trauma so advice can only be theoretical, but try and focus on the many happy years you had together rather than the ending
    So trite.

    Square Root I'm really sorry. Nov 11th is, likewise, a very difficult day for me. The years may change things, but they don't make it any easier. Hugs.
    I don't think Charles' advice is trite. I found it helpful.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    What if I and a couple of my mates fancied @Mysticrose's house/flat/brightly-coloured tent?

    All good that we come over and occupy it?
    Depends how good looking you are
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    Personally I think if they are not at least 45 it will be very disappointing. Hard to see why people vote for the absolute donkeys that the London parties put up. They have no interest in Scotland and are purely sheep to vote as told. However knowing how stupid people are I am sure there will be many idiots vote for serfdom and being ruled by colonial Tory despots.
    As opposed to the idiots who vote for bigoted hate filled nationalists perhaps.
    You can always rely on the village idiot to add value! Pinochet Foremain has spoken
  • As I noted on a previous thread, it really is NE Fife not Fife NE. That is all.

    Sorry, I did know that it is city then geographical indicator and geographical indicator then county, but the betting companies make it as hard as possible to remember that.
    I didn't realise you had broken a general rule rather than the specific one of failing to give due notice to the unique reluctance of NE Fife to be lumped together with the rest of Fife. North East Fife used to be a district council under the old Scottish local govt set up, it has such a distinct identity and the name is used so frequently locally that seeing the constituency written as Fife NE just looks crazy. Of course I haven't lived there since 1994 so maybe it is more integrated into the rest of the county than it was back then. The fact the SNP are strong across Fife probably helps, Vs when it was Labour Fife Vs Liberal/Tory NE Fife.
    From a bookies' perspective it makes sense to turn it round. You probably want to be thinking about East Devon and North Devon at the same time. But I should have got this right.

    The ones I get really confused about are the Thanets (North and South).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
    Absolutely not.

    We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.

    Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    The arrogance is breathtaking Malc

    If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,972

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    What if I and a couple of my mates fancied @Mysticrose's house/flat/brightly-coloured tent?

    All good that we come over and occupy it?
    Depends how good looking you are
    Not as good looking as an international male model, obviously, but I scrub up.
  • How can the Tories get away with asking us to vote for them to 'get Brexit done'? If they get a majority the withdrawal agreement will pass but then there will be at least two years, maybe much more, before a free trade agreement is made and we really exit. That part will make the withdrawal agreement look easy, in fact we could still be looking at a No Deal Brexit after all.
    Labour's policy will mean six months for renegotiation then three more for the referendum, after which God knows what will happen.
    If people really want Brexit over so we can concentrate on the important stuff then Revoke is the only option.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
    You say this on the same page as your obliging and thoughtful remarks about Scottish independence. And you call other people idiots.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    The arrogance is breathtaking Malc

    If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
    It's not humility. It's because deep down you know voting for a racist is wrong. But you've heaped layers of self-justification on top and smothered that nagging little voice. It's pitiful to watch.
  • Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
    Absolutely not.

    We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.

    Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.
    Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.
  • Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,445
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    The result in a Westminster GE is not the same result as one from a referendum.
    In 2015 87% of voters voted for a parties whose policy was remain.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,445

    Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?

    The people of Hong Kong wanted to remain British.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IanB2 said:

    That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.

    You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.

    As you say, part of the process of transformation. The SNP have nearly completed the project of replacing Labour and, that being the case, you'd naturally expect their support in rural and more affluent areas to gently decline. If and when independence comes and they turn themselves into a more conventional social democratic party, that trend should accelerate.

    Under the present circumstances its very easy to imagine Labour going back down to one seat, and relations between the likely sole survivor and the Corbynites are so bad that he's not far short of being an independent Unionist anyway. I wonder if they might also go sub-10% in Scotland? They were already down to 12% in that big YouGov survey from the end of last month IIRC, and there's time enough left for that to be squeezed. I suppose it depends how accurate that value is, and whether or not the whole of that last 12% are reflexive, mostly elderly habit voters.

    The marketplace for a Far Left, vaguely pro-Union and all-over-the-place on Europe party, complete with a leader even more unpopular in Scotland than Boris, can't be that big? Can it?
  • Floater said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
    You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.
    Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?
    Close proximity? The Falklands are about 300 miles from Argentina, whereas the Channel Islands are less than 100 miles from the UK.

    The Falkland Islands are in the South Atlantic. They only appear to be in close proximity to Argentina in comparison to their proximity to... the UK.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,445

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
    Absolutely not.

    We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.

    Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.
    Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.
    Most peopleon this forum consider settling is not enough and that citizenship is required to be able to vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,674

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    The skills wallets are real!
    Can I buy one or do I get one free?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251

    HYUFD said:

    LDs propose a £10 000 skills fund for all adults of working age over 65 funded by a rise in corporation tax

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50367650

    The skills wallets are real!
    Can I buy one or do I get one free?
    It gets delivered with your owl.....
  • Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    I am sorry to hear that. Best wishes
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    So, I spent a few minutes thinking about the SLAB predicament, and when I'm done I find out a massive catfight has started over the Falkland Islands?!?!

    Yeah, sounds pretty much like a normal morning on here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,674

    Skills wallet?

    FFS

    The country has been crying out for dome kind of new wallet.

    Tory Swinson keeps her Fracking money in her fracking wallet
  • I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,205
    Morning all :)

    The one thing the Falklands and the first Gulf War shared was they were a response to an act of aggression by one country on another. Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was as unjustified and unacceptable as was Galtieri's of the Falklands.

    I don't find it hard to defend the response to those events - I find justifying the invasion of Iraq much harder and the quagmires of Afghanistan and Syria harder still to unravel in terms of trying to ascertain what the objective is or should be.
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    I have news for you old sport, no party in the UK in total or in in the constituent members of the UK is ever going to reach the 2015 levels that the SNP reached, including the SNP.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    edited November 2019

    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
    Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.

    Sooo hard.....
  • eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    Thornberry being taken apart over Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years on R4

    Barely bothering to try frankly.

    I'm surprised she would try. It's hard to think of one that was an unqualified success, except Sierra Leone, which Jeremy did back. I find Johnson's eagerness to support any US military action genuinely scary in the current climate.
    Gulf War 1? Falklands?
    Gulf War is the biggest foreign policy fu$k up since the last one.

    And the Falklands? Wtf??? What the hell are we doing sacrificing lives to defend a bit of rock 8000 miles away. Utterly preposterous bellicose colonialist nonsense.
    Erm, the Falklands? Self determination? Heard of that principle, or maybe you don't believe in that?
    Absolutely not.

    We sailed around the world conquering places and peoples, dumping our own kith and kin and then claiming the places as our own.

    Colonialism belongs to 300 years ago.
    Quite frankly I think it’s irrelevant in the modern world how people ended up inhabiting different parts of the globe, they could have come from the moon for all I care, but it is now quite right that those that have settled have the right to determine their own future.
    Most peopleon this forum consider settling is not enough and that citizenship is required to be able to vote.
    Well it also goes hand in hand with questions of citizenship, which is a different but related issue. I do not agree with standing in the way of allowing someone who moves to a country settles and intends to remain to obtain citizenship of a country. Clearly there are rules processes and laws governing that and you can argue the balance is wrong is certain places but the principle seems sound enough to me.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,674

    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
    Yes but this year the CWU aren't delivering them
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    eristdoof said:

    Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?

    The people of Hong Kong wanted to remain British.
    The people of Hong Kong had a leasehold; the Falklanders have the freehold.
  • Floater said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
    You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.
    Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?
    Close proximity? The Falklands are about 300 miles from Argentina, whereas the Channel Islands are less than 100 miles from the UK.

    The Falkland Islands are in the South Atlantic. They only appear to be in close proximity to Argentina in comparison to their proximity to... the UK.
    Any claim to South Georgia is exponentially more tenuous and Argentina invaded that in 82 as well.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    IanB2 said:

    That's an astute comment. To adapt to being the majority party its particular appeal to those areas that sustained it during the early days is reducing.

    You could argue a parallel with the "celtic fringe" seats that sustained the LibDems through the early postwar period; yet now the party is reorienting toward university seats and middle class London and the Home Counties.

    As you say, part of the process of transformation. The SNP have nearly completed the project of replacing Labour and, that being the case, you'd naturally expect their support in rural and more affluent areas to gently decline. If and when independence comes and they turn themselves into a more conventional social democratic party, that trend should accelerate.

    Under the present circumstances its very easy to imagine Labour going back down to one seat, and relations between the likely sole survivor and the Corbynites are so bad that he's not far short of being an independent Unionist anyway. I wonder if they might also go sub-10% in Scotland? They were already down to 12% in that big YouGov survey from the end of last month IIRC, and there's time enough left for that to be squeezed. I suppose it depends how accurate that value is, and whether or not the whole of that last 12% are reflexive, mostly elderly habit voters.

    The marketplace for a Far Left, vaguely pro-Union and all-over-the-place on Europe party, complete with a leader even more unpopular in Scotland than Boris, can't be that big? Can it?
    I'm not sure I agree with the "vaguely" part of "vaguely pro union". Labour put their heart and soul into the No campaign. Sadly for them, it turns out they were on the other side of the fence from half their core support. And aside from ambiguous noises about "allowing" a referendum, I don't see any vagueness. In fact, Labour probably have the most sensible unionist position of all. The Conservatives are opposed to the democratic process completely, and the Lib Dems -- who will nevertheless get my vote -- are hypocritical about EU/indy referendums.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    No doubt the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats. I would simply urge caution.

    No doubt Britnats on here will claim that the Nats on here will claim they are nailed on for a return to 50+ seats, on the basis of very little evidence.
    That can also be said of those who point to a Tory Majority..
    These UNS numbers we have been getting do not matter when it comes to the key individual battlegrounds.
    The MP for Car and Wallington told a friend of mine on Saturday that he truly believes the LDs will get well over 100 seats..he really does believe it
  • I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
    I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    HYUFD and his ilk are such jessies that they insist that they'd probably win a ref but refuse to have one.

    BJ and the Brexityoons, more cowardly than Corbyn Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    Noo said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    The arrogance is breathtaking Malc

    If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
    It's not humility. It's because deep down you know voting for a racist is wrong. But you've heaped layers of self-justification on top and smothered that nagging little voice. It's pitiful to watch.
    Your "evidence" that Boris is a racist is far, far less convincing than my evidence that Corbyn facilitates anti-semitism.

  • eristdoof said:

    Mr. Rose, the people of the Falklands wish to remain British. Surely you support the right of people to freely determine their own destiny?

    The people of Hong Kong wanted to remain British.
    And there were geopolitical factors at play together with the complex issue of the lease of the NT which meant that this was a very difficult situation.

    Personally my view has always been that if HK wanted to remain British or seek its own independence it should have been allowed to do so.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Z

    Floater said:

    Jezza's refusal to back any miliatry action in 40 years

    Bravo. Good for him.

    Look at the total world shitshow that our military interventions have caused.

    And he was absolutely right about Sinn Fein: dialogue led to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It's better to talk ...

    According to you Gulf War 1 and the Falklands were wrong too then....
    You bet they were. Falklands is the biggest crock of shit ever. Give it back to Argentina and stop behaving like C19th arseholes.
    Argentina has never owned the islands. Do check your facts. Being in close proximity does not determine ownership. Maybe you think we should give the channel islands to the French?
    St Pierre and Miquelon call to say fishing rights are important.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    edited November 2019

    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
    I don't want a postal vote for every election though. I don't particularly trust the post.
    Tick the box for one election only,
    Hand deliver the completed ballot to the council one weekend
  • philiph said:

    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
    Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.

    Sooo hard.....
    I don't have a printer at home. My argument isn't that it's hard, but that there are extra barriers to participation - all other things being equal those barriers will reduce turnout.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    edited November 2019

    philiph said:

    I am certain that turnout will be down this year. Comparing it to the 1920's, when turnout was significantly higher than recent times, won't wash.

    Whatever the Metropolitans like to think, weather and daylight does affect propensity to go outside. My guess is that the relative turnout dip will be among older people. In which case, who would that affect more?

    Feel free to dismiss this as it's just a hunch, but I think turnout will be below 70% and I'm betting below 65%.


    I’m betting on low turnout too but a bigger factor will be that people simply aren’t enthused by either of the main offerings and have better things to do.

    My university friends and I organise a Christmas catch-up and party every year, and it’s on Thursday 12th December this year - diarised before the election.

    None of us are cancelling it.
    I know it is good not to rush important decisions, but even so I don't think you need to be a time management ninja to fit in both voting and a party on the same day.
    It depends on the timing. When I go into the office I normally catch a bus before 7am - before the polling station opens. We now have the work Christmas party on the 12th, so if it weren't for the election I'd be out of our constituency until nearly midnight too, well after polls close at 10pm.

    If I didn't want to go to the hassle of organising a postal vote I might kid myself that I can leave early and make it back for 10pm, but then I might fail to do so, or my train might be delayed (I missed voting one election due to a delayed train). Or I might plan to go to work a bit late, after voting, but I'm such a creature of habit I could be on the bus before remembering about the election.

    It's not that it makes it impossible to vote, but it does make it harder and that will make a difference at the margins.
    Obtaining a postal vote is so easy and you just renew it as and when the council contacts you
    Indeed, download a form, print it, fill it in and post it to the Council.

    Sooo hard.....
    I don't have a printer at home. My argument isn't that it's hard, but that there are extra barriers to participation - all other things being equal those barriers will reduce turnout.
    Hi Jess :) (and thinking about it , I don't either!)

    There are less barriers.
    Now you don't have to attend the polling station when open on polling day.
    You can choose to go to postal.

    Ask the council to send the form to you by post, they do that for those without printers.

    There are no barriers.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The one thing the Falklands and the first Gulf War shared was they were a response to an act of aggression by one country on another. Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was as unjustified and unacceptable as was Galtieri's of the Falklands.

    I don't find it hard to defend the response to those events - I find justifying the invasion of Iraq much harder and the quagmires of Afghanistan and Syria harder still to unravel in terms of trying to ascertain what the objective is or should be.

    Surely Afghanistan was entirely defensible and the goal well-defined. They were harbouring al-Qaeda who launched the terrorist atrocities on the USA. The whole world would have been justified in rooting them out and the Afghan government at the time had no moral authority to complain.
    Iraq is at the other end of the scale. We engaged in a war of aggression. The excuses we gave were a fiction. So many Iraqi and British deaths for... what? Oil?
This discussion has been closed.