Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

12346

Comments

  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Amazing the variance of views on here between those saying a disaster for Lab, those saying a disaster for Con, and all in between.

    Indeed, it's a total catastrophe for the other side.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,900

    Amazing the variance of views on here between those saying a disaster for Lab, those saying a disaster for Con, and all in between.

    Probably good for the Cons at this election, but at the cost of their soul and long term future.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
    I don't believe it does. The Tories are polling over 40% in many polls which is roughly what they got in the last election. Labour are polling in the 20s and the BXP around double digits when UKIP got below 2%.

    Tories + UKIP did not get 50% of the vote share in 2017 yet that is what many polls are putting Tories + BXP on now. Quite clear a lot of BXP voters did not come from the Tories and the Tory voters have already 'gone home' back to the Tories in order for them to be polling 40% already.
    We have polls that have shown current voting intention by vote in 2017. Those have shown about two thirds of BXP voters were CON and one third LAB. But now you have to take out those from Tory seats, it probably tilts those numbers towards former Labour voters more. I suspect it will now be 50-50 and not make too much difference in aggregate. Though there may be some Tories in more middle class Labour seats who will feel a bit hard done by.
    That's not true! Yes two thirds of BXP were CON when CON was in the low 30s, that figure was much quoted then, but that figure is still quoted now when CON are polling in the 40s.

    Unless there's been a direct LAB to CON swing that out of date figure is no longer true. The BXP of a few months ago is not the BXP of today or last week. Boris has already squeezed BXP and brought the Tory vote back up to 2017 levels.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,424
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    We’ll have to wait and see how this effects the polling .

    Really depends how the opposition play this . Not standing in 317 seats is by extension endorsing the Tory candidate , if the opposition can tie them together as someone earlier said Nigel Farages Conservative candidate this could be a problem for the Tories .

    I really doubt it. This isnt like cameron 2010 pitch where he was trying to portray himself as a centrist nice bloke. Boris already has loads of baggage that everybody knows about, he is asking for people to vote Tory to get Brexit done. Few people will have been saying well i was going to vote for that, but farage has now said we want brexit too, so i cant vote tory now.

    Those that lose their shit over the mere mention of farage werent exactly rushing to vote boris in the first place.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,278
    kinabalu said:

    The Farage move has triggered a large jump in Tory seats and majority on the spreads. So they think it helps Johnson big time.

    The fear of a landslide was what kicked off the Corbyn comeback last time. The voters may baulk at headlines predicting Johnson winning a 100-seat majority.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,185
    Coming to a Labour leaflet very soon? https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1193869687827906561
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,919

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party
  • dr_spyn said:
    Should help LD in Remain seats very nicely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,972

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.

    It's interesting how the same announcement can be viewed in so many different ways. Some say this is very good for the Tories, others say it's bad news for them.
    I think, to be honest, those saying it's bad news for the Tories are working too hard.

    Yes, it'd be nice for the Tories if Farage also stood down in target seats. But this will mean it is much easier to defend a lot of the 317 - there is absolutely no question about that.

    Sell Lib Dems, buy Tories on this news.
    Tories are looking for a 70+ seat majority. They'll need to do more than hang on to existing seats.
  • This certainly helps the Conservatives, but principally at the expense of the Lib Dems, proportionately at least, since it only affects Conservative held seats (or won by Conservatives in 2017 at least) and Labour's prospects of picking up seats from the Tories were already dire. It does mean that Labour's decision to focus resources on offence rather than defence may prove even more damaging. It may lead to more Remainer tactical voting which will limit the Tory upside, but in terms of the purely mechanical effects these are fairly obvious and helpful to the Tories.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Reckon the Brexit Party stand down is a modest net positive for the Tories, insofar as it should help a little in their defence seats in Southern England and Scotland. It's not a game changer though, BXP is far too weak for that.

    The quid pro quo, if there is any, may be a back room deal for the Tories not to try very hard in a small selection of BXP targets in core Labour Leave areas. If true, I dare say rumours will emerge before long.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,900
    dr_spyn said:
    Bares repetition.

    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Today is insane. We have a debate over who this helps, with both answers being argued and Sky have Kay Burley musing on whether the Tories can take Wigan, which if all labour seats up to and including fell would leave them sub 100. Insanity.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,576
    Tbh, I don't think this makes any difference. If he'd said, we'll stay out of the top 30 Con/LD marginals it may have been the difference between a majority or hung parliament.
  • Farage announcement is important here in Walesfor all conservatives defending their seats. Futhermore, his attack on labour in the Valleys could see some unusual results
  • The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    Good analysis.
  • Those Con/LD marginals in the leafy suburbs and towns look a bit more secure now though.
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.
    What, at General Election 2024?

    I bet the Tories are quaking in their boots at the prospect of Farage popping up and saying, "Hello - remember me? I used to be quite a big deal. Y'know that thing five years ago and that was overtaken by other events ages ago? Well, I was against it, so vote for me."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,950
    edited November 2019

    Amazing the variance of views on here between those saying a disaster for Lab, those saying a disaster for Con, and all in between.

    It’s hilarious.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,211

    Farage announcement is important here in Walesfor all conservatives defending their seats. Futhermore, his attack on labour in the Valleys could see some unusual results

    Mind your capitalisation, Big G. Boris's party may be Conservatives but they certainly aren't conservatives.
  • The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    It almost guarantees them a "minor party" vote share, definitely now under 8% and probably under 5% UK-wide
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019

    God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.

    There has been some impressive doublethink already on pb.com on how the Remain Alliance is highly beneficial for the LibDems, and how the Leave Alliance is also highly beneficial for the LibDems !!
    In the parlance this is because the parties in the Remain Alliance are thought to be "transfer-friendly" while the parties in the Leave Alliance are not.
  • Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Those Conservative candidates are now: "Endorsed by Nigel Farage"
    Strikes me that Boris still needs to win a decent chunk of the opposition-held marginals if he's to get the majority he needs to deliver his deal (and certainly if he wants to make any divisive decisions on the future relationship or lack thereof later next year).

    A (now even noisier) BXP campaign in Workington, Crewe or Bolsover does not help Bozza achieve this.

    If Farage was aiming to help him (rather than just get the heat off himself for splitting the vote), he should have gone another 30 seats down the list.
    TBP candidates in Workington and Telford have stood down and support the conservative
    Telford is already Tory held. I was looking at Labour holds.. but yes, I take the point that some have gone.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Spreads widening, mids now 341-201-37. BXP suspended :-)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019
    TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel has just signed Boris's death warrant.

    It's interesting how the same announcement can be viewed in so many different ways. Some say this is very good for the Tories, others say it's bad news for them.
    I think, to be honest, those saying it's bad news for the Tories are working too hard.

    Yes, it'd be nice for the Tories if Farage also stood down in target seats. But this will mean it is much easier to defend a lot of the 317 - there is absolutely no question about that.

    Sell Lib Dems, buy Tories on this news.
    Tories are looking for a 70+ seat majority. They'll need to do more than hang on to existing seats.
    Yes they do but like in football you need both a defence and offence.

    Salah, Firmino and Mane are helped not damaged by Van Dijk doing well.

    If the Tories defence in the South is more secure they can take the fight better in the North and there's plenty of marginals up here in the North West and in the Midlands etc
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,407
    timmo said:

    I've said this before, but I'm not 100% convinced that the Brexit Party standing down is an unalloyed gift to the Conservatives.

    If the Lib Dems manage to successfully portray the Conservatives as "the Nigel Farage-backed Conservative party", that could attract as many votes to them in swing constituencies as would have been lost to BXP anyway.

    Only if those people want to remain..why on earth would leavers vote for the LdS
    This was my post from a week ago or so:
    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2575301#Comment_2575301

    I agree. It's very unlikely, but there will be a few LDs who are Leavers (and still Leavers) who will vote LD.

    It's like those BXP voters who want to Remain.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    It looks like BXP candidates have been quitting so thick and fast that they don't have enough left to stand in 600 seats anyway.

    Next announcement - we'll be standing only in the seats where the tories have no chance.

    By friday - we'll be standing in Hartlepool as there's only Richard Tice left.

    Today is Nigel's last hurrah - a last chance to appear relevant and important.
  • So does Brecon and Radnorshire return to the blue camp? Had Brexit not stood in the by-election it would have been a Tory hold. It was a Tory seat in 2017 so presumably Brexit aint standing there. The Liberals have already had the Green and PC stand aside.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 48
    Correct me if I'm wrong but they haven't said they are standing in all Labour-held seats, and this contrasts with them explicitly ruling out standing in Tory-held seats. It could be that they will not run in some or all Labour-held Tory targets.
  • The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    Which Tory Remainers are you talking about? There aren't any Tory Remainers any more, all hardcore Tory Remainers have been expelled from the party.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873
    MattW said:

    I don't think an unchallenged rantette from Owen Jones has much weight, to be honest.

    Hardly a rant. It's just fluent and to the point. But, yes, it is Owen Jones and he is deeply partisan. Perhaps something similar from Ken Clarke would be more impactful. You would have thought so. And yet it wasn't. I'm a bit stumped tbh.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sean_F said:

    I think this is marginally helpful to the Conservatives, and elections are sometimes won or lost at the margins.

    Pretty much where I am. Not impossible this will hurt the Tories in terms of people using Farage to scare off soft Tory-Remainer vote but my finger-in-the-air guess is that this won't be significant and will probably be outweighed by the handful of Tory seats this could save.

    I'd say on the question of how this affects Labour-held Leave seats, there's two layers of uncertainty. One: Does this increase or reduce the effect TBP will have on those seats (increase because they're now more focussed, reduce because they'll now be less of the national conversation/coverage). And the second, existing layer: Do they hurt Labour or the Tories more in those seats? My (again, unjustified) guesswork on the second question is that they hurt the Tories more. On the first question- no idea. Frankly I don't buy the idea that the Tories are going to cut a swathe through these seats, so either way I don't see the involvement of TBP making a significant difference
  • God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.

    If you check his politics he is 100% labour, writes books about labour, has spent the last 48 hours tweeting from Laura Pidcock's campaign hq, and to be honest has not a shred of honest unbiased opinions in him
  • Jamei said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but they haven't said they are standing in all Labour-held seats, and this contrasts with them explicitly ruling out standing in Tory-held seats. It could be that they will not run in some or all Labour-held Tory targets.

    Good spot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,424
    edited November 2019
    Jamei said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but they haven't said they are standing in all Labour-held seats, and this contrasts with them explicitly ruling out standing in Tory-held seats. It could be that they will not run in some or all Labour-held Tory targets.

    I would have thought the tories would still want the brexit party standing in a large number of those, as they it will.enable those leavers who would never vote tory somewhere to put their cross other than corbyn.

    What this announcement signals to leavers who say voted brexit party at euros and normally vote tory but no fan of boris, is if you want brexit you really really dont have any other choice than tory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852

    The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    Indeed.
    The real message it sends is that the Johnson deal is in reality acceptable to Farage. Which will further squeeze the Brexit vote in those seats where they do stand.

    The other strong message from this is that it’s now much safer to vote Lib Dem without risking Corbyn.

  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,894
    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature.

    I see a more extreme Welsh Nationalist party GWLAD will now be standing in Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan -- all abandoned by Plaid Cymru in their stupid 'Remain Pact'.
  • The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    Which Tory Remainers are you talking about? There aren't any Tory Remainers any more, all hardcore Tory Remainers have been expelled from the party.
    Oh, there are still a few sensible ones left, Greg Clark for example. Not many, I grant you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852
    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, I don't think this makes any difference. If he'd said, we'll stay out of the top 30 Con/LD marginals it may have been the difference between a majority or hung parliament.


    Of course it makes a difference - Farage has effectively said it’s acceptable for Brexiteers to vote Tory.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    And Tory majority comes in to 1/2, was 10/11 when I went to bed. That's a big wow Black Swan kinda thing.
  • Jamei said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but they haven't said they are standing in all Labour-held seats, and this contrasts with them explicitly ruling out standing in Tory-held seats. It could be that they will not run in some or all Labour-held Tory targets.

    I would have thought the tories would still want the brexit party standing in a large number of those, as they it will.enable those leavers who would never vote tory somewhere to put their cross other than corbyn.

    What this announcement signals to leavers who say voted brexit party at euros and normally vote tory but no fan of boris, is if you want brexit you really really dont have any other choice than tory.
    Agreed. Even where BXP stand this says loud and clear "if you want Brexit vote Tory" but if you hate the Tories you can vote BXP as a protest vote rather than voting Labour.

    Win/win.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
    I don't believe it does. The Tories are polling over 40% in many polls which is roughly what they got in the last election. Labour are polling in the 20s and the BXP around double digits when UKIP got below 2%.

    Tories + UKIP did not get 50% of the vote share in 2017 yet that is what many polls are putting Tories + BXP on now. Quite clear a lot of BXP voters did not come from the Tories and the Tory voters have already 'gone home' back to the Tories in order for them to be polling 40% already.
    We have polls that have shown current voting intention by vote in 2017. Those have shown about two thirds of BXP voters were CON and one third LAB. But now you have to take out those from Tory seats, it probably tilts those numbers towards former Labour voters more. I suspect it will now be 50-50 and not make too much difference in aggregate. Though there may be some Tories in more middle class Labour seats who will feel a bit hard done by.
    That's not true! Yes two thirds of BXP were CON when CON was in the low 30s, that figure was much quoted then, but that figure is still quoted now when CON are polling in the 40s.

    Unless there's been a direct LAB to CON swing that out of date figure is no longer true. The BXP of a few months ago is not the BXP of today or last week. Boris has already squeezed BXP and brought the Tory vote back up to 2017 levels.
    On the latest YouGov the Brexit Party pick up 12% of Conservative 2017 voters and 6% of Labour 2017 voters.

    Edit: Johnson is attracting 9% of Labour 2017 voters and 12% of Liberal Democrat 2017 voters in the same poll.
  • another little thought, all the people who have said they will support whoever Nigel says they should support.... it aint going to be Jeremy or the girl guide from East Dunbartonshire!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852

    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature...
    Would you otherwise have considered voting for either party ?
    I suspect not.
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,894

    So does Brecon and Radnorshire return to the blue camp? Had Brexit not stood in the by-election it would have been a Tory hold. It was a Tory seat in 2017 so presumably Brexit aint standing there. The Liberals have already had the Green and PC stand aside.

    I think it would return anyhow to the Tories.

    The by-election majority is just 1,425. It is not enough.
  • God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.

    If you check his politics he is 100% labour, writes books about labour, has spent the last 48 hours tweeting from Laura Pidcock's campaign hq, and to be honest has not a shred of honest unbiased opinions in him
    I was aware of his background / leaning, but i mean come on....the piece he just did to camera was like he is taking his statement from the corbyn spin WhatsApps group. I dont think even jon f##k the tories snow will be arguing this.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    camel said:

    And Tory majority comes in to 1/2, was 10/11 when I went to bed. That's a big wow Black Swan kinda thing.

    Far, far too much excitement going on there. Still a whole month to go until polling day. No way the Tories are that far clear
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,919
    edited November 2019
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed
  • God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.

    If you check his politics he is 100% labour, writes books about labour, has spent the last 48 hours tweeting from Laura Pidcock's campaign hq, and to be honest has not a shred of honest unbiased opinions in him
    I think he has been quite fair and balanced in how he saw it.

    All these people talking of leave and remain alliances all assume other parties supporters are up for sale and will move however they expect.
  • camel said:

    And Tory majority comes in to 1/2, was 10/11 when I went to bed. That's a big wow Black Swan kinda thing.

    I don't think its a Black Swan, its just punters belatedly recognising that the Tories had already knocked out the BXP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,844

    The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    Which Tory Remainers are you talking about? There aren't any Tory Remainers any more, all hardcore Tory Remainers have been expelled from the party.
    Oh, there are still a few sensible ones left, Greg Clark for example. Not many, I grant you.
    Greg Clark and Stephen Hammond the last 'moderates' :) ?

    There's a layer between them and the ERG that I'd say takes in the likes of Theresa May and Paul Masterton (Probably soon to be gone) mind.
  • ‪People are over thinking the Farage announcement, but it’s very simple:‬
    ‪1. BXP not standing against them helps the Tories in seats they hold.‬
    ‪2. Jeremy Corbyn being Labour leader helps the Tories in seats Labour holds.‬
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    eek said:

    Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour

    And in the Labour seats that the Tories need to win to get a majority the BXP will split the Tory vote just enough to keep a Labour MP.

    I actually suspect this will do the Tories more harm than good.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    I doubt the Tory vote will be split. If "I will never vote for the Tories" Leave voters vote for the BXP instead of Labour then that could be good news for the Tories.
    Only if TBP peel off more Labour votes than Tory ones. And the polling suggests the opposite is true.
    I don't believe it does. The Tories are polling over 40% in many polls which is roughly what they got in the last election. Labour are polling in the 20s and the BXP around double digits when UKIP got below 2%.

    Tories + UKIP did not get 50% of the vote share in 2017 yet that is what many polls are putting Tories + BXP on now. Quite clear a lot of BXP voters did not come from the Tories and the Tory voters have already 'gone home' back to the Tories in order for them to be polling 40% already.
    The latest YouGov polling data I saw showed 12% of Conservative voters has a TBP VI, against 8% of Labour voters (2017 GE votes). Also, 1% of Lib Dems switching to TBP.
  • What would you say are the true odds that the Brexit party will take a seat now are, bearing in mind that Thurrock is now off limits, as are Clacton and South Thanet?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,894
    Nigelb said:

    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature...
    Would you otherwise have considered voting for either party ?
    I suspect not.
    I think zero LibDems on pb.com would actually have voted for Plaid Cymru if they lived in Arfon or Dwyfor.

    It was a LibDem on pb.com who described the Welsh as living in dunghills.
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.
    Yes, it's a complete non-argument. We went through all this with the famous Latvian homophobes stuff before 2010. The plain fact is that all of the EU parliament groupings have some pretty dodgy (or at least dodgy by UK standards) parties in them, and voters neither know nor care about them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852

    God lewis godall has really lost any sense of balance...according to him on sky a couple of minutes ago, brexit party not standing in 300+ seats is really bad news for the tories...no not a slip of the tongue, its really bad for the tories, something something looks bad, but remain alliance is fine, in fact better for them.

    If you check his politics he is 100% labour, writes books about labour, has spent the last 48 hours tweeting from Laura Pidcock's campaign hq, and to be honest has not a shred of honest unbiased opinions in him
    I think he has been quite fair and balanced in how he saw it.

    All these people talking of leave and remain alliances all assume other parties supporters are up for sale and will move however they expect.
    Why do they assume any such thing ?

    At most, all you can conclude is that they calculate on balance such a pact is more likely than not to be net beneficial in terms of winning seats.
  • ‪People are over thinking the Farage announcement, but it’s very simple:‬
    ‪1. BXP not standing against them helps the Tories in seats they hold.‬
    ‪2. Jeremy Corbyn being Labour leader helps the Tories in seats Labour holds.‬

    Nailed it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852

    Nigelb said:

    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature...
    Would you otherwise have considered voting for either party ?
    I suspect not.
    I think zero LibDems on pb.com would actually have voted for Plaid Cymru if they lived in Arfon or Dwyfor.

    It was a LibDem on pb.com who described the Welsh as living in dunghills.
    That’s hardly an answer to a reasonable question - and if we’re going to descend into ad hominem, you’re hardly the most temperate of commenters yourself.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,516
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature.

    I see a more extreme Welsh Nationalist party GWLAD will now be standing in Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan -- all abandoned by Plaid Cymru in their stupid 'Remain Pact'.
    Altogether now:

    "What the world needs now
    Is extreme nationalism
    It's the only thing
    That there's just too little of"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    BXP standing in Remainer Parties seats only.

    That might save 2 or 3 more Scottish Tories certainly
    Yup, I am revising my Scottish position now. I think this potentially saves some NE SCon seats.
  • What would you say are the true odds that the Brexit party will take a seat now are, bearing in mind that Thurrock is now off limits, as are Clacton and South Thanet?

    It's Hartlepool or bust, isn't it? I'm on Labour there...
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    And Tory majority comes in to 1/2, was 10/11 when I went to bed. That's a big wow Black Swan kinda thing.

    I don't think its a Black Swan, its just punters belatedly recognising that the Tories had already knocked out the BXP.
    It's a dramatic shift.

    This afternoon I shall be seeking out value in Labour holds. With BXP fading,and LDs not breaking through, it's starting to feel more like 2017 than 2015.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,518
    I’d say it probably net helps Labour in Lab/Con marginals (where if the polls are right, Labour poses little threat anyway) but helps the Cons on LibD/Con marginals. On current polls it’s a benefit to the Tories, only swinging against them if Corbyn repeats his surge of 2017.
  • ‪People are over thinking the Farage announcement, but it’s very simple:‬
    ‪1. BXP not standing against them helps the Tories in seats they hold.‬
    ‪2. Jeremy Corbyn being Labour leader helps the Tories in seats Labour holds.‬

    LOL! Very true.

    Interesting line the "9 more seats" line that Boris is now using, I seem to recall Cameron saying something similar in 2015 makes it seem quite achievable.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,919

    What would you say are the true odds that the Brexit party will take a seat now are, bearing in mind that Thurrock is now off limits, as are Clacton and South Thanet?

    Hartlepool
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,424
    edited November 2019

    What would you say are the true odds that the Brexit party will take a seat now are, bearing in mind that Thurrock is now off limits, as are Clacton and South Thanet?

    About as likely as Man Utd Or Arsenal winning the premier league this season.
  • welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature.

    I see a more extreme Welsh Nationalist party GWLAD will now be standing in Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan -- all abandoned by Plaid Cymru in their stupid 'Remain Pact'.
    Altogether now:

    "What the world needs now
    Is extreme nationalism
    It's the only thing
    That there's just too little of"
    Posted by an ardent Leaver - one has to enjoy the irony.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 106,919
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    With a Tory majority Boris can deliver Brexit with his Deal with the EU
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    When it comes to foreign policy the British electorate are naturally very isolationist, and really only interested in self-defence.
  • https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1193874480428441600

    Which it seems Farage has already worked out.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,522

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?
    Farce in comparison to what? Ours ridiculous local assembly on the Thames?
  • The other point to bear in mind is that there are bound to be some amongst the 317 who were marching up (as they thought) to the top of the hill and have now been ordered to march down again who will be annoyed. I expect twitters of disgruntlement.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature.

    I see a more extreme Welsh Nationalist party GWLAD will now be standing in Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central and Vale of Glamorgan -- all abandoned by Plaid Cymru in their stupid 'Remain Pact'.
    Altogether now:

    "What the world needs now
    Is extreme nationalism
    It's the only thing
    That there's just too little of"
    Posted by an ardent Leaver - one has to enjoy the irony.
    Do I count as an ardent Leaver? It's not first on my list of priorities. Regardless, not everyone in the country who originally voted to ditch the EU did it out of a desperate desire to pull up the drawbridge, you know.
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    With hindsight it is just as likely that they were in Pakistan as Afghanistan. And given that almost all the 911 terrorists were Saudis and we know the Saudis are backing such terror groups around the world, there was as much cause to attack either Pakistan or Saudi as there was to attack Afghanistan. We chose the latter because it was a failed state and not a supposed ally.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    With a Tory majority Boris can deliver Brexit with his Deal with the EU

    He can get his withdrawal agreement through. And that’s when the fun really starts.

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    dr_spyn said:
    I think Keir Starmer might be shocked to learn an awful lot of Labour voters actually like Nigel Farage's politics and not his.
  • The more you think about it, the more bizarre this particular decision is. It makes no sense: the rational choices would have been for BXP to either contest all seats, or contest a few seats where they have a chance, or contest seats held by Tory Remainers, or contest no seats.

    I therefore conclude that this is essentially a face-saving ploy to hide the reality that they are not going to be trying very hard anywhere.

    Which Tory Remainers are you talking about? There aren't any Tory Remainers any more, all hardcore Tory Remainers have been expelled from the party.
    Oh, there are still a few sensible ones left, Greg Clark for example. Not many, I grant you.
    A large number of those that voted for Hunt are "remainers", if by that you mean people that supported remain in the referendum
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    Going into Afghan on that basis was probably justified.

    Staying there with the mission creep that followed and casualties that that entailed certainly was not, hence that response.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited November 2019
    Labour have the attack ads all lined up already .

    Ian Lavery’s looks to be the best so far .

    “This is a Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson alliance with Donald Trump to sell out our country and send £500 million per week from our NHS to US drugs companies “.

    Regardless of whether it’s true or not , it seemed to work okay for Bozo and his bus .
  • What would you say are the true odds that the Brexit party will take a seat now are, bearing in mind that Thurrock is now off limits, as are Clacton and South Thanet?

    About as likely as Man Utd Or Arsenal winning the premier league this season.
    You can still get 1.61 on the proposition that the Brexit party get no seats on Betfair. It looks more like a 1.2 shot now.
  • And I think Iraq in 1991, from that data set, has to be getting some crossover with the later invasion coupled with fading memories.
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪With the Farage endorsement the Tories’ journey to the hard right continues. It’s no coincidence they are in the same group as VOX at the European Parliament.‬ This will not end well for the former Conservative and Unionist Party or, far more importantly, for the country.

    Farage has not endorsed the Boris Deal just focuses on Labour to stop EUref2. If Boris won and Brexit was delivered Farage would stand candidates against Tories again on a No Deal ticket.

    Plus the Spanish PP are the Tories sister party in the International Democratic Union, Vox are the Brexit Party sister party

    VOX and the Tories sit in the same group at the European Parliament. Farage is standing aside for the Tories. He wants them to win. It seals their election victory, but it’s all downhill from there. Johnson cannot deliver what he has promised.

    The European Parliament is a farce and we're leaving it. I don't think that's as big an argument winner as you think it is.

    I am not trying to win an argument. I am merely pointing out that these days the Tory party happily seats with VOX in the European Parliament. Given the rightward tack the Tories are taking, and their embrace of populist nationalism, it’s hardly a controversial point.

    That's because the EU Parliament is a farce and the groups in it are farces. There's shambolic parties in every group. So what?

    So what indeed. It’s not strange that right wing, populist nationalist parties are going to be happy in each others’ company.

  • And, indeed, as the first comment says

    "And what of Kosovo? Syria? Sierra Leone? Serbia?"

  • I am not sure this announcement by El Duce is really that good for the Tories. In all seats that they did not win last time they will be competing with the Faragists. A bit challenging when they do not currently have a majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,852
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    Similarly the first Iraq war. Though perhaps attitudes towards that are to an extent now inseparable from the influence of the events and consequences of the second ?
  • https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1193874480428441600

    Which it seems Farage has already worked out.

    No sensible person of any persuasion could disagree with Gauke here. The waters ahead are going to get very stormy.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,894
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    welshowl said:

    So Lib Dems are now the Welsh independence party?
    Quite.

    I can’t wait for one of them to knock on my door so I can point out they’re dead set against independence in Scotland ( where their leader has a seat of course), but have gone into an arranged alliance with (an Adam Price led I want an independence referendum) Plaid Cymru in my constituency.

    I’ve got both verbal barrels loaded and plenty of hypocritical ammo for the poor schmuck they send round to canvass me.
    Great, because when Plaid Cymru come round to ask for my vote, I will want to know why they are in a Unionist bed with the LibDems and the Green Party of EnglandandWales. My verbal barrels are also loaded for the schmuck.

    If a LibDem canvasser comes round to see, I actually will not be answerable for my actions. The deluge of LibDem leaflets I am receiving is just grossly wanton provocation. I will want the schmuck to arrange a pick-up truck to cart away the literature...
    Would you otherwise have considered voting for either party ?
    I suspect not.
    I think zero LibDems on pb.com would actually have voted for Plaid Cymru if they lived in Arfon or Dwyfor.

    It was a LibDem on pb.com who described the Welsh as living in dunghills.
    That’s hardly an answer to a reasonable question - and if we’re going to descend into ad hominem, you’re hardly the most temperate of commenters yourself.
    What is your question? I have usually voted Plaid Cymru in the recent past.

    I think the point I am trying to make is that the LibDems and Plaid Cymru are an extremely unnatural fit. I don't think many Plaid Cymru voters would ever vote LibDem. I don't think many LibDems would ever vote Plaid Cymru.

    If I were to transport most pb.com LibDems to Arfon and deprive them of a LibDem candidate, I think most would either not vote or they would vote Labour (assuming the Labour candidate is not barking mad). I can't see them voting for a party that wants Welsh independence.

    Indeed, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the main beneficiary of the stupid Remain Alliance is LABOUR. They could conceivably take Arfon and the Vale of Glamorgan, thanks to the Remain Alliance. Will LibDem votes in VoG vote Green or will they vote Labour (assuming the Labour candidate is a moderate Remainer) ?

    And I see one poll last week actually predicted that Labour would make just two gains in the whole of the UK -- VoG and Arfon.

    The Remain Alliance was and is a monumental piece of stupidity.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
    Well who knows, maybe that's the reason. But it could just as well have been even worse had we exited quicker. That's my feeling based on my personal experience. It is looking very much to me like it is going to be worse case.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    ‪People are over thinking the Farage announcement, but it’s very simple:‬
    ‪1. BXP not standing against them helps the Tories in seats they hold.‬
    ‪2. Jeremy Corbyn being Labour leader helps the Tories in seats Labour holds.‬

    And BXP standing in Labour seats helps Labour.

    In terms of raw votes, this is a good news for the Conservatives right now. It is possible to turn it into bad news if the "Vote Tory get Faragism" narrative puts people off from voting Tory.

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1193827334698283009?s=20

    Though only the 2nd Iraq War has over 50% opposed

    More people think Afghanistan was wrong than right. That shakes me somewhat. The West was under attack by islamofascists being harboured in Afghanistan. Of course we had to take military action. I'm finding this very difficult to process.
    When it comes to foreign policy the British electorate are naturally very isolationist, and really only interested in self-defence.
    I hear you, but surely it was self-defence. British people and interests were attacked on 9/11 even if GZ was in America. Plus America was our ally back then.
    I can only assume Brits have conflated Iraq and Afghanistan, which is very unfortunate if so, since they were qualitatively very different wars. If that is right, it's yet more evidence that Iraq was a colossal waste of political capital, notwithstanding the blood and treasure aspect.
This discussion has been closed.