Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

12467

Comments

  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 336
    PClipp said:

    stodge said:

    Unfortunately, I suspect a number of your fellow Conservatives won't be doing much in the way of humility. The stench of triumphalism is already palpable from parts of the west country for example.

    There's a lot of fences to be mended by the next Government and we are going to need more than a few words from Boris if he walks back into No.10. If he genuinely wants to make Britain "the greatest place on Earth" than it has to be so for everybody not just the fortunate.

    It has to be the greatest place for the unfortunate as well whatever their circumstances.

    I think "the stench of triumphalism" in the West Country, comes, Mr Stodge, mainly from the wealthy Tory blow-ins who have been buying the place up. Traditional Conservative voters are honest, reasonable and pragmatic, who just want to see sound government in London, not a gang of incompetents who play fast and loose with the economy and with people`s livelihoods.
    Sounds like someone has a problem with free movement within the UK.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,899

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, what's the minimum target for a successful night for the SNP? 40?

    Obviously here again we come back to expectations. Last time they won 35 seats, well over half, and looked badly damaged because they had lost over 20 seats. Daft, but that's how politics works.

    But I think if there are not overall gains on the night Sturgeon will in trouble, trouble that is not going to be eased by certain events early next year.

    To get back to 2015 levels and recover all their 2017 losses, the SNP need to win 56 seats
    Thank you, Hyufd, I am aware of that, but that wasn’t my question.
    Given 2015 was pre Brexit and the EU referendum, the SNP need at least 57 seats to say the Brexit vote has changed things such that indyref2 is needed in my view
    Its not like you have an ulterior motive or inherent bias or anything though is it?
    The SNP got 50% of the vote in 2015, so if they are to get over 50% of the vote and thus claim a mandate for indyref2 they need to make gains on 2015 in votes and seats
    I could reply to this comment with the exact same thing I said in my previous post.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it an absolute truth.
    It does if the Tories win a majority as we Tories will decide if the SNP get their indyref2, as Boris has made clear we will not grant one as on current polling there is no need for one, 2014 was meant to be a once in a generation vote, Scots voted 55% No to independence and no evidence Yes are now the majority
    You really are an idiot , is that the "Royal We". When do you get your jackboots issued.
    The arrogance is breathtaking Malc

    If Boris wins there will not be any victory roll from this poster, humility goes a longway
    G, quite incredible these guys, Tories are really being run by a lot of extreme right wingers who do not believe in democracy. Pathetic.
  • It is such a shame that the BBC is turning into The Boris Broadcasting Company, why not show yesterday's shabby effort to lay a wreath. At least Jo Swinson and Jeremy Corbyn looked the part.Johnson is turning out to be a real disgrace,unkempt and disrespectful.
  • It is such a shame that the BBC is turning into The Boris Broadcasting Company, why not show yesterday's shabby effort to lay a wreath. At least Jo Swinson and Jeremy Corbyn looked the part.Johnson is turning out to be a real disgrace,unkempt and disrespectful.

    Oh FFS. It is obvious it is a mistake and here is the statement.

    https://twitter.com/RobBurl/status/1193842990999121921
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,739
  • TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    He will save their lives by keeping them at home!
    Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.
    According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.
    Hard to understand why I should pay tax so a retired Colonel can get a free commute to his job in the City.
    Railcards, not free travel, AAUI.
    Indeed. And you can’t use rail cards at peak time. But I’m sure the original two posters knew that anyway.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Yeah how shocking but the lesson from Venezuela's failure to shift a single British vote last time round is the only two groups who give a damn about rum goings-on in South America are Jeremy Corbyn and CCHQ's campaign team.
    Yes - one forgives vote rigging by fellow socialists and the other lot are just pointing it out.

    Not exactly a great advert for Labour to be trusted with power is it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    Morning PB -July's heatwave saved us from a technical recession in the third quarter.

    Brit's spend like crazy when it's hot!!!! :D
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.

    Whereas Corbyn is toxic nearly everywhere.
  • Xtrain said:

    Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.

    I'm a new voter in West Dorset and the LibDems will get hammered!
    Quite
  • nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
  • TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    He will save their lives by keeping them at home!
    Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.
    According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.
    Hard to understand why I should pay tax so a retired Colonel can get a free commute to his job in the City.
    Railcards, not free travel, AAUI.
    Indeed. And you can’t use rail cards at peak time. But I’m sure the original two posters knew that anyway.
    You can use the over 65 railcard at any time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,844
    @Roserees64 I assume you're in a Dorset (Letwin's seat ?) town ?

    2017

    I don't know about the youth vote but all the 60plus people I know in this Dorset town are voting Lib Dem, Green or Labour. It could be that I don't know many Tories or it could be that May is so mediocre. Even if she wins a majority she has lost the battle.

    West Dorset Majority
    19,091
    32.0
    +2.4

    Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,041

    Meanwhile, this looks useful for considering constituency betting:

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1193635894294695939

    Of course the reason the LDs find it so hard to break through in FPTP elections is that their vote is evenly spread. Conversely, Labour can do better than expected in bad years because its vote tends to be more concentrated in areas of strength.

    Those features are certainly evidence in those charts.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    We haven't left yet. The gun is merely cocked and aimed at the foot.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,205
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:


    And yet annual growth is 1% at a time of historically high employment, record numbers of vacancies and an ever growing population adding to the workforce.

    We could and should be doing so much better but in the current economic model recruiting extra labour is easier than investing in technology to drive business efficiencies. Productivity remains poor because we are either unable or unwilling to innovate and rely on a Service sector parts of which remain heavily labour-intensive.

    And you don't think that's related to having a virtually unlimited pool of cheap labour available?
    Of course. Crude example - I can get my car washed by a very impressive machine at Tesco's which employs one bloke to take the money and two others to do a pre-wash. OTOH I can go to my local hand car wash and get six blokes to clean my car the old fashioned way with sponges and buckets of water.

    That's our economy in microcosm. The construction industry certainly in London is full of labourers from other parts of the world and it's that sector (0.6% growth) which has helped keep us out of recession.
  • I’m on the Cons in West Dorset.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740

    Nov 11th is always difficult day for me. Its 7 yrs to the day since my first wife died.

    Deepest sympathies.
  • Rumours that this is being prepped as BJ's 2020 Remembrance contribution are yet to be confirmed.
  • Floater said:

    Lifelong Tories moving to Lib Dems in Letwin's old seat, the only evidence so far is their willingness to tell you what they are going to do. There could be some big surprises. Boris is certainly Marmite around here.

    Whereas Corbyn is toxic nearly everywhere.
    He is, but will it stop people voting Labour?

    I’m not so sure.
  • Sort of on topic, I see the LDs are breaking the habit of the lifetime in pursuing their tax & spend model to election campaigns.

    Fund mental health.. with higher income tax.

    Fund skillz walletz... with higher corporation tax.

    It’s no wonder they’re not doing as well as they hoped with soft Conservatives.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    A Labour government run by Jeremy Corbyn would introduce collective decision making on using nuclear weapons, Emily Thornberry has suggested.

    The shadow foreign secretary has indicated that the Labour leader would seek advice from his closest advisers and ministers if the UK was forced to defend itself. ...


    Wow just wow

    Not even true I would suggest
  • nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    He wants a hung parliament..it gives him relevance
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,844

    Sort of on topic, I see the LDs are breaking the habit of the lifetime in pursuing their tax & spend model to election campaigns.

    Fund mental health.. with higher income tax.

    Fund skillz walletz... with higher corporation tax.

    It’s no wonder they’re not doing as well as they hoped with soft Conservatives.

    It's an error if they're going down the tax raising path, the strongest arguments for 'revoke/remain' are the medium term economic ones.
    They could have paid for all this with the 'but for' Brexit economics and less borrowing than Tories/Labour will likely come out with in their manifestoes.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,185
    "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election".

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1193798750856196096

    Am trying to work out if Corbyn has made a very courageous decision by visiting marginal seats.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873
    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
  • timmo said:

    He wants a hung parliament..it gives him relevance
    There is little evidence in recent polls that TBP has much influence left.

    Their support has halved in recent weeks
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740
    geoffw said:

    Do the Scots buy the idea that independence is a thing in this election? This is a Brexit election, and independence comes into it as a corollary, but how exactly? Does "taking us out of Europe against our will" strengthen the case for a second independence referendum? The SNP wants two referendums - on EU membership and on independence. They are allied with Labour in this position. The SLDs and the SCons are alike in not wanting any referendums, and are both pro-Union but opposed on the EU. So on policies the SNP and SLab stand together and their opponents are split. That is only good for the SNP I would say.


    Geoff, all of our elections are about independence. Try to imagine a world where the debates about Brexit never end (not too hard in fact). That's where we are.
  • dr_spyn said:


    Am trying to work out if Corbyn has made a very courageous decision by visiting marginal seats.

    Seems very sensible of Corbyn's minders. They don't want him screwing up their attempts to defend key marginals.
  • nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    The +0.3 follows -0.2 in Q2; average growth over the two quarters is 0.0, with some monthly volatility reflecting Brexit-related stockbuilding and net trade flows. The monthly data also set up a challenging Q4, since the growth in Q3 reflected what happened in June and July.
    What is certainly true is that growth is weakening everywhere, in fact the recent step down in UK growth probably reflects global factors more than Brexit, while the more long-standing decline in trend growth since around 2016 is probably mostly Brexit related. Plus of course we haven't left yet.
    In short, these are not great numbers. Anyone who follows the data knew a positive print was nailed on thanks to the monthly data (we already had July/Aug data) and the BoE and market both expected +0.4.
  • kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    Three paragraphs for:

    "Boris, what's that all about, am I right?"

    Cheers, big fellah
  • kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    In this election nothing will change my mind. Corbyn has to be stopped - only a vote for Boris guarantees that. So it makes no difference to me when I vote. Indeed I would expect thousands to have tgh same reasoning
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,121
    Chris said:

    Meanwhile, this looks useful for considering constituency betting:

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1193635894294695939

    Of course the reason the LDs find it so hard to break through in FPTP elections is that their vote is evenly spread. Conversely, Labour can do better than expected in bad years because its vote tends to be more concentrated in areas of strength.

    Those features are certainly evidence in those charts.
    What is "Community" ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sort of on topic, I see the LDs are breaking the habit of the lifetime in pursuing their tax & spend model to election campaigns.

    Fund mental health.. with higher income tax.

    Fund skillz walletz... with higher corporation tax.

    It’s no wonder they’re not doing as well as they hoped with soft Conservatives.

    It's an error if they're going down the tax raising path, the strongest arguments for 'revoke/remain' are the medium term economic ones.
    They could have paid for all this with the 'but for' Brexit economics and less borrowing than Tories/Labour will likely come out with in their manifestoes.
    Yep. They’re running a Charlie Kennedy style 2005 campaign rather than a Nick Clegg style 2010 campaign.

    It’s baffling.
  • kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.
    Yup. You’ll fit right in in Corbyn’s Labour.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873
    edited November 2019
    DavidL said:

    Geoff, all of our elections are about independence. Try to imagine a world where the debates about Brexit never end (not too hard in fact). That's where we are.

    There seems (perhaps) to be an interesting conundrum in that we could see -

    (i) A Tory government dragging Scotland out of the EU, or

    (ii) A Labour government keeping Scotland in the EU.

    Where (i) makes a "Yes" in Sindy2 more likely but makes Sindy2 itself less likely.

    And (ii) makes Sindy2 very likely but a "Yes" answer less likely.

    With (i) looking the red hot fav at this stage, of course.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    He will save their lives by keeping them at home!
    Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.
    According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.
    Hard to understand why I should pay tax so a retired Colonel can get a free commute to his job in the City.
    It makes sense if you are of of this new breed of Tories.
  • Sort of on topic, I see the LDs are breaking the habit of the lifetime in pursuing their tax & spend model to election campaigns.

    Fund mental health.. with higher income tax.

    Fund skillz walletz... with higher corporation tax.

    It’s no wonder they’re not doing as well as they hoped with soft Conservatives.

    Surely it's better to fund mental health honestly from an increase in taxation than from wishful thinking (Conservatives) or borrowing (Labour).

    Also we have a discussion on this thread on the lack of productivity growth, so it seems a bit weird to denigrate an attempt to help people increase their skills and, er, become more productive.
  • dr_spyn said:

    "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election".

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1193798750856196096

    Am trying to work out if Corbyn has made a very courageous decision by visiting marginal seats.

    He doesn't really have much choice - if he does anything else he will be admitting that Labour will be losing seats this election. There are one or two very heavily Remain seats that Labour could pick up from the Conservatives - and Putney is one - but 95% of the traffic is going to be the other way.
  • Sort of on topic, I see the LDs are breaking the habit of the lifetime in pursuing their tax & spend model to election campaigns.

    Fund mental health.. with higher income tax.

    Fund skillz walletz... with higher corporation tax.

    It’s no wonder they’re not doing as well as they hoped with soft Conservatives.

    Surely it's better to fund mental health honestly from an increase in taxation than from wishful thinking (Conservatives) or borrowing (Labour).

    Also we have a discussion on this thread on the lack of productivity growth, so it seems a bit weird to denigrate an attempt to help people increase their skills and, er, become more productive.
    I think the point is that this could be funded by a “Revoke dividend” that plays into their core message.

    She’s claiming she’ll have £10bn extra (£50bn over 5 years) for public services.

    So why not just pledge some out of that?

    It says something about her instincts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873

    Three paragraphs for:

    "Boris, what's that all about, am I right?"

    Cheers, big fellah

    Yes, you have it. The remarkable lack of scrutiny of Blondie is my point -

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1193424699860115456
  • nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
  • TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    You've got to feel for Emily Thornberry. She's been sent out on the red-eye watch to expain how Jeremy Corbyn is going to improve the lot of the British armed sevices!

    He will save their lives by keeping them at home!
    Corbyn's lack of appetite for foreign adventurism would also fix the current retention and resourcing problems. 80% of RN's ratings leave within 4 years yet the Fireplace Salesman and Sub/Lt (Acting) Mordaunt were more concerned with announcing what vessels due to be launched 15 years hence would be named.
    According to Grant Shapps/Michael Green ex servicemen will be given free rail travel for life. So leaving the forces after basic training might prove to be a smart move for long term commuters.
    Hard to understand why I should pay tax so a retired Colonel can get a free commute to his job in the City.
    Railcards, not free travel, AAUI.
    Indeed. And you can’t use rail cards at peak time. But I’m sure the original two posters knew that anyway.
    You can use the over 65 railcard at any time.
    There are morning peak time restrictions in London and the South East.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740
    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I agree. Twice in the last 3 elections I have ended up doing a last minute proxy when work took me away unexpectedly (handled very efficiently both times). It would make sense for me to have a postal vote but I really want to go to the polling station and vote so I don't apply for one. (I know I could take it with me but it still wouldn't be the same).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
    Absolutely. Given the way our grossly irresponsible politicians have behaved it is remarkable that we did not end up with a recession.
  • Dadge said:

    I'm saddened that so many democrats are in favour of military coups.
    But not saddened when elections are rigged?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,972
    kinabalu said:

    Three paragraphs for:

    "Boris, what's that all about, am I right?"

    Cheers, big fellah

    Yes, you have it. The remarkable lack of scrutiny of Blondie is my point -

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1193424699860115456
    But then Jeremy Corbyn.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    "shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards"

    It boggles the mind what that could possibly be.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    ^^^^^THIS!!!!^^^^^
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,121
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Three paragraphs for:

    "Boris, what's that all about, am I right?"

    Cheers, big fellah

    Yes, you have it. The remarkable lack of scrutiny of Blondie is my point -

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1193424699860115456
    I don't think an unchallenged rantette from Owen Jones has much weight, to be honest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,972
    Tabman said:

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    ^^^^^THIS!!!!^^^^^
    -1
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    I see the BBC edited video footage of remembrance day on its Breakfast bulletin to show Johnson in 2016 when he looked sober well presented.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873

    In this election nothing will change my mind. Corbyn has to be stopped - only a vote for Boris guarantees that. So it makes no difference to me when I vote. Indeed I would expect thousands to have tgh same reasoning

    I don't think you can truly say that NOTHING that might be revealed about Johnson before you vote would stop you voting for him. This would imply a cult follower level of devotion that I cannot believe you have. Some do, yes, but I doubt it with you. You have traveled far, very far, on Johnson but there could still come a point, depending on how gruesome the future revelations about him are, where you say, "OK, this far and no further".
  • TOPPING said:

    Tabman said:

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.

    I wouldn't know how voting by post feels since I've never done it but I do agree that going down on the day to the polling station is one of life's great experiences. This time it will (literally) be double the joy because my wife will be overseas and I will be doing a proxy for her. She wanted to go for a postal vote but I talked her out of it. I told her very forcibly that proxy was the way to go and she did not feel strongly enough to argue with me.

    On a more serious note, I'm not sure that postal voting for GEs should be allowed. The problem with it is it messes up the date of the election. Dec 12th is the big day for this one, therefore all votes should happen on Dec 12th. With postal voting you have large numbers voting earlier than that. This reduces the integrity of the process because those people have less information available to them than the people who do things properly on the 12th.

    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    ^^^^^THIS!!!!^^^^^
    -1
    -2
  • MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Three paragraphs for:

    "Boris, what's that all about, am I right?"

    Cheers, big fellah

    Yes, you have it. The remarkable lack of scrutiny of Blondie is my point -

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1193424699860115456
    I don't think an unquestioned diabtribe from Owen Jones has much weight, to be honest.
    Especially when its a complete bulls**t diatribe from Owen Jones.

    All of those claims he makes a so far from being unquestioned they've been repeated ad nauseum on repeat for months. Many of which utterly dishonestly being spoken about, like claiming Boris was against gay marriage due to an article he wrote decades ago when nobody in senior politics was talking about it and PM Tony Blair was against it . . . but ignoring the fact Boris supported gay marriage before any other senior Tory politician including PM Cameron.
  • DavidL said:

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
    Absolutely. Given the way our grossly irresponsible politicians have behaved it is remarkable that we did not end up with a recession.
    The pair of you are demonstrably cuckoo about this. The underperformance started almost immediately after the vote. A deal has only been on the table since last December and most of the most aggressive opposition came from headbanging Leavers. But somehow Remainers are to blame.

    Leavers have still not persuaded the doubters that Brexit is a good idea - the very opposite. Their inability to confront even the most obvious drawbacks of their mad obsession shows why.
  • Farage waving the white flag, I hope BXP voters don't go to Labour :(
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Geoff, all of our elections are about independence. Try to imagine a world where the debates about Brexit never end (not too hard in fact). That's where we are.

    There seems (perhaps) to be an interesting conundrum in that we could see -

    (i) A Tory government dragging Scotland out of the EU, or

    (ii) A Labour government keeping Scotland in the EU.

    Where (i) makes a "Yes" in Sindy2 more likely but makes Sindy2 itself less likely.

    And (ii) makes Sindy2 very likely but a "Yes" answer less likely.

    With (i) looking the red hot fav at this stage, of course.
    The underlying flaw in that reasoning is that the SNP get a grievance out of Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its wishes. They are so overloaded with grievances and perceived slights already that it really won't make any difference.

    In fact it goes further. If the UK leaves the EU the terms of trade agreed will be absolutely critical to any future Indyref. Scotland has the benefit of 2 SMs at the moment. It is going to lose one if we leave but by far the most important SM is with rUK. If the unimpeded operation of this becomes incompatible with EU membership an independent Scotland will be incapable of joining the EU. What the SNP need is as free a trade deal as possible between the UK and the EU so that they can aspire to keeping both options. They really, really should have voted for May's deal but so should everyone else.
  • Looks as if Farage is going to reduce his candidates

    Live on Sky

    Important development
  • DavidL said:

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    Meanwhile, over a more meaningful time period:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1193832832206098432
    That's the price of the uncertainty brought about by people refusing to accept Brexit and trying to thwart it.
    Absolutely. Given the way our grossly irresponsible politicians have behaved it is remarkable that we did not end up with a recession.
    The pair of you are demonstrably cuckoo about this. The underperformance started almost immediately after the vote. A deal has only been on the table since last December and most of the most aggressive opposition came from headbanging Leavers. But somehow Remainers are to blame.

    Leavers have still not persuaded the doubters that Brexit is a good idea - the very opposite. Their inability to confront even the most obvious drawbacks of their mad obsession shows why.
    Both don't need to and can't convince you that its a good idea before it happens.

    Its been voted on already. The way to convince is to implement the deal and demonstrate that what was voted on was the right decision.
  • Laura Kunnesberg

    Farage mid reverse ferret underway....
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Here's more about the islamophobia you lot don't care about. Really quite a good piece about the Conservatives putting cynical electoral calculus above doing what's right. Not that this is a new concept, of course.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/11/islamophobia-tory-matt-hancock-sayeeda-warsi-muslims
  • Tabman said:

    I see the BBC edited video footage of remembrance day on its Breakfast bulletin to show Johnson in 2016 when he looked sober well presented.

    It’s cock up not conspiracy.

    And Occam’s Razor applies here too: I doubt there’s anyone at BBC HQ who wants to tub-thump for Boris as a matter of editorial policy.
  • Farage sounds as if he is caving
  • Why is it "truly startling"? Corbyn's reaction is all too predictable. His commitment to democracy is skin deep and ceases once democracy starts to stand in the way of achieving his and his communist allies' goals. Cuba, Venezuela and now Bolivia are cases in point.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,211
    I've said this before, but I'm not 100% convinced that the Brexit Party standing down is an unalloyed gift to the Conservatives.

    If the Lib Dems manage to successfully portray the Conservatives as "the Nigel Farage-backed Conservative party", that could attract as many votes to them in swing constituencies as would have been lost to BXP anyway.
  • Dadge said:

    I'm saddened that so many democrats are in favour of military coups.
    But not saddened when elections are rigged?
    I'd be more impressed if some of the Conservatives using Bolivia as a talking point had more interest in discussing their own party's failed attempt to suspend democracy just a couple of months ago.
  • Not standing in any Tory seats.
  • BXP standing in Remainer Parties seats only.
  • Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740

    Looks as if Farage is going to reduce his candidates

    Live on Sky

    Important development

    An interesting challenge for the pollsters. Do they allow TBP returns in areas where there are going to be no candidates?
  • camel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Voting by post feels shit.

    Voting at a polling station feels awesome.


    For example, you vote Con by post on the 9th, having agonized between them and the LDs for weeks, then the following day, the 10th, a video comes into the public domain which shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards. You see it and are shocked. You would now vote LD if you were voting in person on the 12th. But of course you can't. You have voted Con under false pretences. Your vote has essentially been stolen. And if there are sufficient like you, especially in marginal seats, one could even make a case that the election itself has been stolen.
    "shows Boris Johnson doing or saying something absolutely appalling even by his standards"

    It boggles the mind what that could possibly be.
    Well, you say that, but his vices are, by contemporary standards, pretty tame. He's a serial womaniser and a liar, sure. That's apparently pretty typical of MPs (I say this not to excuse him, by the way). But there's something about him that seems uniquely to send his leftwing critics into a Gladstonian, spittle-spraying orgy of Puritan condemnation.

    I think it might actually be helping him with the general public, to be honest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,278

    Not standing in any Tory seats.

    It makes it much easier for Remainer Tories to vote Lib Dem and splits the Leave vote in the Labour seats that the Tories are targetting.

    Good decision, Nigel.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    BXP standing in Remainer Parties seats only.

    That might save 2 or 3 more Scottish Tories certainly
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,873

    Yup. You’ll fit right in in Corbyn’s Labour.

    The test for my integrity would have been if she wanted a LD vote. It was looking that way a couple of weeks back. Fortunately, and with no pressure from me, she is sticking with Labour. I'm told that Swinson is a factor.

    Still have a big decision to make on the 12th. Do I go to the polling station just once and vote twice (inc proxy) when I'm there? Or do I make two specific trips, first for me, then a later one for the proxy (or vice versa).

    I reckon I'll probably go twice. Given that I can it would seem a shame not to.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,185
    Farage claims Brexit Party will contest 300+ seats mainly LD and Labour seats.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,185

    Looks as if Farage is going to reduce his candidates

    Live on Sky

    Important development

    Not enough money to field candidates?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,740

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Unfortunately the 90 odd Labour seats that are currently up for grabs from Labour are just as relevant to the outcome of this election but it might help the Tories resist Lib Dems in SW and southern England.
  • Ferange has bottled it
  • Just as well I bet on the BXP getting less than 5% at 2.5 last night...
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    nunu2 said:

    Growth 0.3% - no recession

    I wouldn't cheer about that number if I was the tories.
    It is way better than pretty much every other major european economy and in the face of a marked global slowdown.

    Given the bollocks we've seen on this site about the supposed eceonomic effects of Brexit it is a remarkable and heartening figure and the tories should take full credit.
    It is pretty good considering the brexit blockers have done nothing but talk down the British economy for almost four years
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,278
    DavidL said:

    Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Unfortunately the 90 odd Labour seats that are currently up for grabs from Labour are just as relevant to the outcome of this election but it might help the Tories resist Lib Dems in SW and southern England.
    There's some evidence that potential Lib Dem votes were swinging Tory because of fear of Corbyn. This announcement makes it easier for them to vote Lib Dem.
  • Farage will not contest 317 seats conservatives won last election but will take on everyone else

    Big story

    Those Conservative candidates are now: "Endorsed by Nigel Farage"
  • Noo said:

    Here's more about the islamophobia you lot don't care about. Really quite a good piece about the Conservatives putting cynical electoral calculus above doing what's right. Not that this is a new concept, of course.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/11/islamophobia-tory-matt-hancock-sayeeda-warsi-muslims

    Warsi hates us atheists....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,894

    I've said this before, but I'm not 100% convinced that the Brexit Party standing down is an unalloyed gift to the Conservatives.

    And now perhaps you can complete the logical corollary.

    PC or Greens standing down is not an unalloyed gift to the LibDems.
  • Farage has made the biggest move in the campaign so far and is now calling it a 'leave' alliance and be is going 100% for labour
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    I've said this before, but I'm not 100% convinced that the Brexit Party standing down is an unalloyed gift to the Conservatives.

    If the Lib Dems manage to successfully portray the Conservatives as "the Nigel Farage-backed Conservative party", that could attract as many votes to them in swing constituencies as would have been lost to BXP anyway.

    Only if those people want to remain..why on earth would leavers vote for the LdS
  • MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Three paragraphs for:

    "Boris, what's that all about, am I right?"

    Cheers, big fellah

    Yes, you have it. The remarkable lack of scrutiny of Blondie is my point -

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1193424699860115456
    I don't think an unchallenged rantette from Owen Jones has much weight, to be honest.
    Why feminise the word 'rant' when it comes from a gay man?
  • Noo said:

    Here's more about the islamophobia you lot don't care about. Really quite a good piece about the Conservatives putting cynical electoral calculus above doing what's right. Not that this is a new concept, of course.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/11/islamophobia-tory-matt-hancock-sayeeda-warsi-muslims

    Warsi hates us atheists....
    Warsi is a religious extremist and sides with religious extremists.
This discussion has been closed.