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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

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  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    kinabalu said:

    My example was about a 15 year old in the context of what is 'child poverty'. Try telling them that a smartphone is not essential and I predict a robust response.
    You can try telling a 15 year old lots of things and expect a robust response. It does not mean you are wrong.
  • It’s a fair question Big G. Every Conservative cheerleader has to explain exactly why they’re so relaxed about the Prime Minister’s assault on the country’s constitution.
    Because he was facing a Speaker who was prepared to do the same?

    So you are saying you have deliberately tampered with documentary evidence for legal reasons? And over a prolonged period of time?

    My case rests m'lud.
    That’s a nice point: can a document that was never written down be said to have been tampered with because it was never written?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Castigated him for insufficient right wing populism and mendacity.
    You think she would have gone all-out fan-girl?
  • OT if there's going to be FPTP there should at least be a third box for "I want them both to lose"

    https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1193450658193641472
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?

    Probably would have concluded that the shadows on the cave wall were distorted in some appalling way.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,338
    edited November 2019

    I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?

    Very much for I'd say.
    Even setting aside his Brexitism and Trump fawning, she was always a sucker for a bit of posh (however phony).
  • Basically, you can't advocate vegetarianism if you are a prominent cannibal.

    You can if you are misletoe or ivy or a strangler vine - all plants that eat other plants.

    Just doing the pedantic thing.....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    This is one heck of an article about how the Tories are now an anti-business party. By a former Tory minister.

    https://www.ft.com/content/96ddbc8a-0152-11ea-a530-16c6c29e70ca
  • I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?

    On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    I heard a vox pop from the north recently and Boris received surprising endorsements from normal folk who liked him 'cocking a snook' at establishment, one of the lads and someone I would have a drink with were also common themes

    People like rebels and Boris has done a pretty good impression of taking on the elite and if he wins, it will be because this has cut through.

    This is exactly my point. That "normal folk" are setting the bar very low and it's only going to get lower as we get accustomed to the consequences.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Who are you voting for out of interest?

    Almost certainly Lib Dems this time around. Certainly if the election was today. I'm a floating voter, and I've chopped and changed much over the years. Let's see whether the next few weeks change my mind.
    For me, it's about Brexit. I want it stopped, so I'm going for the party with the strongest message about that. There are other things I'm concerned about: electoral reform, sensible economic policies (i.e. not socialism and not bloodletting austerity), the environment, and basic standards of not having loads of bigots hiding in the woodwork. Right now, the stars are all aligned for the Lib Dems for me, but of course I don't expect Brexiters would want to follow me towards a remain party.
    I just think the big two parties have let standards slip so badly that we have to punish them both simultaneously. We can't keep going on oscillating between tweedledum and tweedledee, because it's just not working. This country's in a fucking mess, and it's getting worse. Time to try something new.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?

    He would have approved the philosopher king who recites the Odyssey in ancient Greek.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited November 2019

    If slaughter and grimness are your thing, look into the massacres of Berwick or at Durham, after the battle of Dunbar. Or indeed, more recently, the worlds first extermination camp at Norman Cross.
    Norman Cross was not an extermination camp. If it was it was not very efficient. 1,700 prisoners died at Norman Cross out of a population at any one time of 7,000, Approximately 1,000 of those in a typhoid epidemic in 1800 to 1801. Were the conditions there poor, God yes, nowhere near the humanitarian standards we would expect today. Was it an “extermination camp” - only in your fevered Anglophobic imagination.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    My example was about a 15 year old in the context of what is 'child poverty'. Try telling them that a smartphone is not essential and I predict a robust response.
    I don't own a smartphone and never have, so I don't accept that a smartphone is an essential. (I've got a laptop which is about 6 years old which is adequate).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676
    edited November 2019


    If you think what one party says about another is serious data for earnest consideration, it is most likely that when it comes to elections you haven't been paying attention.

    We're probably more interested in details than 95% of voters, but I'll confess that I've not bothered to look into the details. My takeaway has been:

    * Interest rates for government are now negative so it's a good time for sensible investment
    * Tories no longer care about the deficit and will restore most of the cuts
    * Labour will borrow a lot more and actually improve stuff
    * There's a query about whether you can wisely spend a lot in a hurry

    Net impression: Labour will improve public services, Tories will stop making them worse. All the stuff about trillions is passing me by as obvious partisan guff, and if anything mildly confirming the above impression.
  • On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
    In complete contrast to current the current herd.
  • I find the argument that nobody is allowed to campaign to change a system if they themselves take advantage of that system to be bogus.
    Sure, take fewer flights, drive a smaller car, use public transport or offset as an individual - that is your choice. However the system is as it is and small individual actions such as Greta's in crossing the ocean in a sailing boat are praiseworthy but only governments and big business can make decisions which will have a real effect.
    You seem to be saying that if someone takes a flight their arguments can be ignored - even if the arguments are valid.
    The main lesson from Greta’s crossing was how utterly impractical any alternative to flying is if you want to be physically there. She really should have Skyped.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    AndyJS said:

    I don't own a smartphone and never have, so I don't accept that a smartphone is an essential. (I've got a laptop which is about 6 years old).

    Then you are one very unusual 15 year old!
  • In complete contrast to current the current herd.
    :D:D:+1:
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
    That was how she ended up. But she started out having barking mad ideas of her own. She was quite entertaining at one time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    alb1on said:

    You can try telling a 15 year old lots of things and expect a robust response. It does not mean you are wrong.

    But in this case you would be.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ive had a thought, which I'm posting for reflection, not as something I have evidence for. A return of the 'shy tory' syndrome.,... these vox pops of salt of the earthers going Boris 'one time only' etc. Could this be a wider phenomenon with working class red rosetters planning to vote Tory in the secrecy of the booth but wont openly admit that, even to pollsters? In other words, the mood music versus the polling. Are we missing a tidal wave?
    Similarly for Lab to Lib Dem switchers although I'm led to believe this is less of an unforgivable act
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The main lesson from Greta’s crossing was how utterly impractical any alternative to flying is if you want to be physically there. She really should have Skyped.
    I agree with that.

    There are huge numbers of conferences that can be replaced by Zoom or Skype.

    And, the UN should be taking a lead. Otherwise nothing will change.
  • Because he was facing a Speaker who was prepared to do the same? That’s a nice point: can a document that was never written down be said to have been tampered with because it was never written?
    A notional document subject to notional tampering? Sounds like a notional crime, for which a stiff notional penalty would be in order.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?

    Hard to know what Plato thought about anything. His dialogues put words in the mouth of Socrates, but we don't know much about how closely they aligned with Socrates' views, versus Plato's own. There is a school of thought that says the early dialogues were Socratic and the later ones Platonic, but even putting them in order is a matter of considerable debate.

    We do know Pythagoras would have been a Blairite, though. Everything was about triangulation for him..
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Nice that we remember Plato today.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    AndyJS said:

    I don't own a smartphone and never have, so I don't accept that a smartphone is an essential. (I've got a laptop which is about 6 years old which is adequate).
    I've never used a mobile phone. I realise that's unusual these days, but obviously a smartphone isn't essential.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited November 2019

    OT if there's going to be FPTP there should at least be a third box for "I want them both to lose"

    https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1193450658193641472

    Not a sustainable line that. You cannot bandy about your opponent's figures then refuse to do the same for your own. You've made the figures the point of debate.

    The main lesson from Greta’s crossing was how utterly impractical any alternative to flying is if you want to be physically there. She really should have Skyped.
    Yes. I think it was an effective stunt in one sense in that it got plenty of attention, but the actual thing that they want is less flights, not more boat trips (which would be impractical for reaching the destination in a timely manner, which is why we invented planes to begin with), so skyping in would have made the point more effectively. But not as iconic and newsworthy.

    Advertising is everything I guess.
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't own a smartphone and never have, so I don't accept that a smartphone is an essential. (I've got a laptop which is about 6 years old which is adequate).
    Nothing wrong with a 10 year old desktop either :wink:
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    alb1on said:

    Ever tried working a spreadsheet on a smartphone?
    You can get a cheap monitor and keyboard and use a phone as a replacement for a computer. I've seen the CTO of a finance company working in exactly that way in recent years, was fascinating to see it in action. Not what I would choose to do, but it worked for him.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    kinabalu said:

    But in this case you would be.
    I take it you are a 15 year old since you seem to ignore facts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    Well, I don't think it is unreasonable to ask how often Lucas is flying? And whether those flights are really necessary?

    Lucas is one of the most judgemental figures in modern politics, so I am not impressed with her response ("let's not sit in judgment on each other")

    Clearly, it is hypocritical when touring rock stars take a heavily Green stance. Or Lewis Hamilton.

    Their entire lifestyle (which after all is nothing very vital) is based around taking lots of international flights for themselves and their entourage.

    Basically, you can't advocate vegetarianism if you are a prominent cannibal.

    Indeed. It all depends.

    Flying every now and again to visit her son in America? - Surely OK to a reasonable person.

    Zipping around on planes willy nilly, several times a year, conferences, holidays, taking her PPL at Biggin Hill? - Rank hypocrisy.

    Wonder which it is?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    I find the argument that nobody is allowed to campaign to change a system if they themselves take advantage of that system to be bogus.
    I think that very much depends on how self-righteous that person might be. If someone is hugely judgemental of others' personal actions, but acts similarly, it undermines their arguments quite a bit. If someone advocates for societal change whilst acknowledging they too could do more, that's a lot more reasonable.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:

    Hard to know what Plato thought about anything. His dialogues put words in the mouth of Socrates, but we don't know much about how closely they aligned with Socrates' views, versus Plato's own. There is a school of thought that says the early dialogues were Socratic and the later ones Platonic, but even putting them in order is a matter of considerable debate.

    We do know Pythagoras would have been a Blairite, though. Everything was about triangulation for him..
    Ye gods, you were talking about the PB Plato, not the Ancient Greek one, weren't you? Ah well, I got my Pythagoras gag in there.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    I agree with that.

    There are huge numbers of conferences that can be replaced by Zoom or Skype.
    But what would our business executives have to do all day if they didn't travel to meetings? Have you really thought through the unemployment problems your madcap idea would cause?
  • Noo said:

    Hard to know what Plato thought about anything. His dialogues put words in the mouth of Socrates, but we don't know much about how closely they aligned with Socrates' views, versus Plato's own. There is a school of thought that says the early dialogues were Socratic and the later ones Platonic, but even putting them in order is a matter of considerable debate.

    We do know Pythagoras would have been a Blairite, though. Everything was about triangulation for him..
    Wrong Plato. This one was (initially) a cat that a female poster knew. She named it Plato and used the name for her own handle on PB. She had a bit of a cat thing.....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    edited November 2019

    In complete contrast to current the current herd.
    There are a few posters here now who are so prolific and tribal that you have to wonder why they are doing it. It's certainly not for the betting, nor the debate, since they never engage in any meaningful way.

    It's tempting to speculate that they too are rewarded in cash or kind, although it may be they just find gratification in what they perceive as furthering the interests of The Tribe.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698



    I agree with that.

    There are huge numbers of conferences that can be replaced by Zoom or Skype.

    And, the UN should be taking a lead. Otherwise nothing will change.

    I do agree, but some can only take place face to face. I recall going through the reserving numbers of our US operation and needing to see the shifty look of the US managers at close quarters to confirm the suspicions I had looking at the bare numbers. No video link could have given me that.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Labour and Tories each have a shit start to their campaigns. And the LibDems go down.

    How is it looking, "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson?

    *titter*
    Tory lead heading downwards,
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    :smiley:
    I'm still really sorry about that one. Shows the importance of keeping a detailad account of your betting.

    To be fair I got on at much better odds than when I tipped against it.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Wrong Plato. This one was (initially) a cat that a female poster knew. She named it Plato and used the name for her own handle on PB. She had a bit of a cat thing.....
    Yes, I twigged just a little too late. Thanks for the heads up though
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    kinabalu said:

    Indeed. It all depends.

    Flying every now and again to visit her son in America? - Surely OK to a reasonable person.

    Zipping around on planes willy nilly, several times a year, conferences, holidays, taking her PPL at Biggin Hill? - Rank hypocrisy.

    Wonder which it is?
    We can fairy safely say she won't be flying over Brighton towing a banner saying vote for my lot.

    But then, I doubt Farage will either.....
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Noo said:

    You can get a cheap monitor and keyboard and use a phone as a replacement for a computer. I've seen the CTO of a finance company working in exactly that way in recent years, was fascinating to see it in action. Not what I would choose to do, but it worked for him.
    I prefer not to carry a monitor and keyboard around. Your solution only works if you work in one place.
  • Mr. Tokyo,

    Alien Versus Predator: Whoever Wins, We Lose
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2019
    AndyJS said:

    I don't own a smartphone and never have, so I don't accept that a smartphone is an essential. (I've got a laptop which is about 6 years old which is adequate).
    I totally agree - just about everyone I know who has one, especially the under 35 year olds, is a total slave to their mobile to the detriment of acceptable social manners towards everyone else who might be present. I take mine with me when away from home for emergency use, e.g calling for roadside assistance, notifying loved ones of unforeseen delays, etc and for keeping up to date with the footy scores and a few other sporting events and that's about all. I don't LIVE on my mobile like so many appear to do so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    There are a few posters here now who are so prolific and tribal that you have to wonder why they are doing it. It's certainly not for the betting, nor the debate, since they never engage in any meaningful way.

    It's tempting to speculate that they too are rewarded in cash or kind, although it may just be they just find gratification in what they perceive as furthering the interests of The Tribe.
    It's why paid astroturfing is dumb in politics, since enthusiastic amateurs are perfectly willing to support the messaging for free.

    But personally I'm here to seek smug self satisfaction.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Kwasi fulfils a similar role for the tories as The Constant Gardiner does for Labour. Everybody, even those on their own side, think they are a useless twat and are therefore expendable cannon fodder to be sent out to be pegged by Sophy R's strap on.
  • Noo said:

    Yes, I twigged just a little too late. Thanks for the heads up though
    Lol! Easy mistake to make.

    We also used to have a Socrates but he hasn't posted for while.

    Not too much hemlock, one hopes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    alb1on said:

    I take it you are a 15 year old since you seem to ignore facts.

    Please reflect properly on what not having a smartphone would mean to a 15 year old in Britain in 2019.

    Once you've done that, we can pick this up.
  • On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
    I believe she had voted SDP, LibDem and for Blair in earlier elections.

    I rather upset her once by suggesting she had voted on the basis of which party leader she would chose as a husband.
  • kle4 said:

    It's why paid astroturfing is dumb in politics, since enthusiastic amateurs are perfectly willing to support the messaging for free.

    But personally I'm here to seek smug self satisfaction.
    For me it is just the entertainment value. The trench warfare in here makes any other purpose a bit pointless.

    I do hope that the bettors (betters?) make money from their flutters.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Yepp. The SNP are toast within 5 years of independence. I’ll not only leave the party, I will campaign hard against any former colleagues who put the party name on a ballot paper.

    The SNP was created for, and exists for, a purpose. Once that goal is achieved it is utterly redundant.
    I think they'll go longer than that, 10 years, but a lot rests on what the leader does after independence.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    There are a few posters here now who are so prolific and tribal that you have to wonder why they are doing it. It's certainly not for the betting, nor the debate, since they never engage in any meaningful way.

    It's tempting to speculate that they too are rewarded in cash or kind, although it may be they just find gratification in what they perceive as furthering the interests of The Tribe.
    You have to wonder, don't you?

    But who would pay anyone to post here? That's not a rhetorical question. I'm eager to know. (If you don't like my principles, I have others.)
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Kwasi fulfils a similar role for the tories as The Constant Gardiner does for Labour. Everybody, even those on their own side, think they are a useless twat and are therefore expendable cannon fodder to be sent out to be pegged by Sophy R's strap on.

    Doesn't RCS know him and rate him highly ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brian Mawhinney former cabinet minister has passed away
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,291
    geoffw said:

    Nice that we remember Plato today.

    Indeed. Phillipa, better known to us on PB as @Plato_Says or variants, is one of those PB posters who died. Another is @MarkSenior , who died in 2017, see https://britainelects.com/2017/09/27/previews-28-sep-2017/ .

    It has not been a good year for PB posters: there have been multiple illnesses, one stabbing and a few deaths of spouses and parents. I think the only cheerful things have been my new job, one poster starting a legal degree and @Casino_Royale 's new baby. I'll try to do a births, deaths and marriages article for year end.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    alb1on said:

    I prefer not to carry a monitor and keyboard around. Your solution only works if you work in one place.

    Yeah, I'll personally stick with my laptop. But he worked out of two offices and his home, so it was a case of only needing to carry his phone and using monitors and keyboards that stayed put.
    I can see a future for Google Glass-like hardware, a lightweight and portable display that doesn't end up looking tiny like a phone screen does. Not sure how to overcome the need to carry a keyboard, though.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Of the lot, I would rather be on Elisha McCallion in Foyle. Eastwood is a vote for REMAIN or DEAL and I can't see many unionists in Foyle going that way. Hanna in Belfast South was value earlier in the week, not now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,827
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
    Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
  • Sunday dinner preparation beckons.

    Laters! ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676

    Ive had a thought, which I'm posting for reflection, not as something I have evidence for. A return of the 'shy tory' syndrome.,... these vox pops of salt of the earthers going Boris 'one time only' etc. Could this be a wider phenomenon with working class red rosetters planning to vote Tory in the secrecy of the booth but wont openly admit that, even to pollsters? In other words, the mood music versus the polling. Are we missing a tidal wave?
    Similarly for Lab to Lib Dem switchers although I'm led to believe this is less of an unforgivable act

    It's possible, but past experience is rather the other way - people mutter that for two pins they'd vote differently, and then they don't. A bit like most MPs, come to that.

    I think that Labour has pretty much won the "who's the second party nationally?" argument with the LibDems, but not much progress on eating into the Tory lead so far, so IMO it'll come down to the debates and tactical voting - everything else is minor.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,291

    Ive had a thought, which I'm posting for reflection, not as something I have evidence for. A return of the 'shy tory' syndrome.,... these vox pops of salt of the earthers going Boris 'one time only' etc. Could this be a wider phenomenon with working class red rosetters planning to vote Tory in the secrecy of the booth but wont openly admit that, even to pollsters? In other words, the mood music versus the polling. Are we missing a tidal wave?
    Similarly for Lab to Lib Dem switchers although I'm led to believe this is less of an unforgivable act

    Possibly, but I'd point out that we're not missing it: we keep downplaying the fact that all the pollsters say Con are ahead by a large way.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Doesn't RCS know him and rate him highly ?
    There is kudos in being the thankless soul who goes out and defends the indefensible. In other countries, like Japan and France, they have a special cabinet role for this and it is a prestigious / good-signal appointment, like if DPM were also chief cabinet spokesman.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Chris said:



    But who would pay anyone to post here? That's not a rhetorical question. I'm eager to know. (If you don't like my principles, I have others.)

    The tory pary/GRU would be wasting their fucking money as I don't think anybody here has ever changed their mind on anything as result of something they read.

    You do see certain persistent themes getting pushed using almost identical language by some posters but it's like the business case for prostitution in Hartlepool: no point paying for it because there are too many enthusiastic amateurs giving it away for free.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    Alistair said:

    I think they'll go longer than that, 10 years, but a lot rests on what the leader does after independence.
    They'll keep going as long as the Scottish labour party continues to be a basket case. They've taken the moderate centre left position and as long as they don't give it up they'll be around. they won't remain at this high water mark for too long but for the forseeable Labour don't appear to be doing anything to change th situation.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Brian Mawhinney former cabinet minister has passed away

    Sad to hear of that, one of the tiny handful of scientists to get to the top rung of politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    Dura_Ace said:

    The tory pary/GRU would be wasting their fucking money as I don't think anybody here has ever changed their mind on anything as result of something they read.
    Except they have, and that no one ever changes their mind (rather than simply most) is one of those things people just assume.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2019
    Local intelligence: the Tories will have to have a total meltdown not to take North Norfolk off the Lib Dems. Their vote here is based on the merits of the retiring incumbent, it is (I believe) the oldest constituency in the land, it's strongly Leave and the Tories have picked a local candidate.

    Apparently you can get 7/2 on the Conservatives with William Hill. I'm (almost) tempted to sign up for an account just to stick a few hundred quid on at those odds. It looks very much like free money.
  • Cookie said:

    Oh, get over yourself. That's as vacuous as saying noone advocating a vote for the Lib Dems has any respect for democracy, or noone advoxating a vote for Labour has any respect for human decency.
    Moreover, constitutional-dicking-about this year has hardly been the preserve of the Conservatives.
    People vote, amd asvocate votes, for any one of a number of reasons. I'm voting Conservative because the alternative to a Conservative majority is Jeremy Corbyn as PM. And for fans of liberal constitutional democracy, that looks like the worst possible outcome.
    Only the Conservatives have assaulted the constitution this year. This is how democracy ends: large numbers of people see something as more important than protecting it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    EPG said:

    There is kudos in being the thankless soul who goes out and defends the indefensible. .
    Michael Fallon used to be a key pick for that role, as I recall. The thing is, you only get kudos for it if you are good at it. But for some reason parties pick people who can be pretty bad at it and yet keep sending them.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    viewcode said:



    It has not been a good year for PB posters: there have been multiple illnesses, one stabbing and a few deaths of spouses and parents.

    My GTR blew up its intercooler on the dyno. Ts & Ps, please.
  • Because he was facing a Speaker who was prepared to do the same?
    Clearly untrue. The Speaker has the backing of a majority of MPs for his actions as was shown by theirs.
  • Ive had a thought, which I'm posting for reflection, not as something I have evidence for. A return of the 'shy tory' syndrome.,... these vox pops of salt of the earthers going Boris 'one time only' etc. Could this be a wider phenomenon with working class red rosetters planning to vote Tory in the secrecy of the booth but wont openly admit that, even to pollsters? In other words, the mood music versus the polling. Are we missing a tidal wave?
    Similarly for Lab to Lib Dem switchers although I'm led to believe this is less of an unforgivable act

    Hmmm....possible for the Labour to Tory vote although i am unconvinced.

    With regards to Labour to Lib Dem, only in tactical voting places, we are just as in 2017 seeing the 3rd parties being squeezed. I expect this election to be close and end in a hung parliament
  • That was how she ended up. But she started out having barking mad ideas of her own. She was quite entertaining at one time.
    IIRC she worked in PR and had enjoyed quite a varied career although she was mostly "resting" and clearly not in good health during her time posting on PB.com. I think it's only fair and proper to credit her with having a brain ... let's not forget that she was voted POTY on this site a few years back and you don't receive such an accolade without being pretty smart and entertaining as PtP himself must know, having come so very close to a similar honour.
  • Chris said:

    You have to wonder, don't you?

    But who would pay anyone to post here? That's not a rhetorical question. I'm eager to know. (If you don't like my principles, I have others.)
    The evidence is circumstantial so you have to be careful about making assumptions. It wouldn't cost much for a well-funded Party though, and you can be sure some organisers have thought of it.

    On most forums it would clearly be a waste of time and money but on a more thoughtful one like this that has a fair bit of street cred it might be thought to pay dividends.

    Who knows? I wouldn't bother myself and I studiously avoid the more Tribal posters for fear of encouraging them, but somebody clearly thinks it's worthwhile.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited November 2019

    Clearly untrue. The Speaker has the backing of a majority of MPs for his actions as was shown by theirs.
    That sentence seems like a hostage to fortune for Boris, or Corbyn, to do something constitutionally outrageous because a majority of MPs back their actions. They would always be able to do that, sovereignty and all that, but things of constitutional importance might give them pause on flippantly changing them on the basis of a majority alone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,730

    Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
    There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The last two election I made my money with large priced constituency bets plus large priced Scottish seat total for Lab in 2015 and Con in 2017.

    Those opportunities are not there this time round.

    Sad.
  • The evidence is circumstantial so you have to be careful about making assumptions. It wouldn't cost much for a well-funded Party though, and you can be sure some organisers have thought of it.

    On most forums it would clearly be a waste of time and money but on a more thoughtful one like this that has a fair bit of street cred it might be thought to pay dividends.

    Who knows? I wouldn't bother myself and I studiously avoid the more Tribal posters for fear of encouraging them, but somebody clearly thinks it's worthwhile.
    I could see the value in using PB as a testing ground for ideas and policies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    Alistair said:

    The last two election I made my money with large priced constituency bets plus large priced Scottish seat total for Lab in 2015 and Con in 2017.

    Those opportunities are not there this time round.

    Sad.

    Amen. WIthout the Scottish seats I'd have been well down in money rather than breaking even. Some great odds that came off.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Local intelligence: the Tories will have to have a total meltdown not to take North Norfolk off the Lib Dems. Their vote here is based on the merits of the retiring incumbent, it is (I believe) the oldest constituency in the land, it's strongly Leave and the Tories have picked a local candidate.

    Apparently you can get 7/2 on the Conservatives with William Hill. I'm (almost) tempted to sign up for an account just to stick a few hundred quid on at those odds. It looks very much like free money.

    How much do you think incumbency is worth? a few percentage points? And with the Lib Dem vote rising nationwide, and the Conservative vote falling, and the Brexit Party standing, it doesn't feel like a Con gain to me. No local knowledge here for me, though, so happy to defer if you know of canvass returns telling a different story.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    kle4 said:

    Michael Fallon used to be a key pick for that role, as I recall. The thing is, you only get kudos for it if you are good at it. But for some reason parties pick people who can be pretty bad at it and yet keep sending them.
    Broadcasters have also become a lot more aggressive in the Internet era as media competition for eyeballs is a lot more intense. It can't just be politics now, it needs to be politics plus drama. So getting Brexit done will be bad for broadcasters (Who thrive on drama) and good for the press (Who need novelty).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    edited November 2019
    Agree with most of the predictions above but I think the UUP could take North Down, they got 50% of the vote in 2005 when Hermon was last a UUP candidate.

    I also think the Alliance will take Belfast South from the DUP though as you say the SDLP also have a chance having held the seat until 2017.
  • kle4 said:

    That sentence seems like a hostage to fortune for Boris, or Corbyn, to do something constitutionally outrageous because a majority of MPs back their actions. They would always be able to do that, sovereignty and all that, but things of constitutional importance might give them pause on flippantly changing them on the basis of a majority alone.
    The Speaker’s role is to speak for the Commons. John Bercow did that. We now have the ridiculous position where Leavers, having supposedly campaigned for parliamentary sovereignty, now angrily support the government’s supposed right to steamroller the Commons because it is inconvenient for them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,730
    kle4 said:

    That sentence seems like a hostage to fortune for Boris, or Corbyn, to do something constitutionally outrageous because a majority of MPs back their actions. They would always be able to do that, sovereignty and all that, but things of constitutional importance might give them pause on flippantly changing them on the basis of a majority alone.
    That’s a fair point.
    It’s also fair to point out that Johnson’s actions were judged unlawful; the Speaker, while riding the odd coach and horses through convention, acted lawfully.
  • Whatever happened to the mad bad Tim? Given the sheer volume of posts he used to make, how did he redirect his PB posting obsession?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited November 2019

    The Speaker’s role is to speak for the Commons. John Bercow did that. We now have the ridiculous position where Leavers, having supposedly campaigned for parliamentary sovereignty, now angrily support the government’s supposed right to steamroller the Commons because it is inconvenient for them.
    That's separate to the point I was making, which is irrespective of Bercow being right or wrong. A majority of MPs will back actions of Boris or Corbyn to do things which, previously, might have been considered important constitutional conventions. If the Commons chooses to let itself be steamrolled it isn't being steamrolled. When the government wins a vote the Commons doesn't lose, the Commons wins whichever way a vote goes.

    Now, the prorogation stuff was outrageous precisely because it was trying to bypass the Commons and avoid votes, so that is definitiely different, but your generic point about a majority of MPs backing Bercow's actions, and seemingly that that meant it could not have been an assault on the constitution by definition, would seem to me to apply to a great many potential assaults on the constitution by a future government, which we would thenhave no defence of it being an attack on what was an improtant convention.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Chris Hazzard is a very good MP. Though he doesn't bother to represent his constituents in Westminster
  • https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1193504840070127622?s=20

    "There'll be no trolley service because of strike action" will become the signature tune of Britain's nationalised railways.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059

    Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
    Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country, if Corbyn wins it would have been an even bigger economic disaster.

    I would rather have 13 years in opposition against PM Blair or Umunna than even just 5 years in opposition against PM Kinnock or Corbyn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,520
    edited November 2019
    Banterman said:

    Whatever happened to the mad bad Tim? Given the sheer volume of posts he used to make, how did he redirect his PB posting obsession?

    He became a twitter obsessive. Lets just say he isn't a fan of Corbyn, Milne and co.
  • Banterman said:

    Whatever happened to the mad bad Tim? Given the sheer volume of posts he used to make, how did he redirect his PB posting obsession?

    https://twitter.com/ExStrategist
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Dura_Ace said:

    My GTR blew up its intercooler on the dyno. Ts & Ps, please.
    stabbing ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    Nigelb said:



    That’s a fair point.
    It’s also fair to point out that Johnson’s actions were judged unlawful; the Speaker, while riding the odd coach and horses through convention, acted lawfully.

    Oh, while I don't like Bercow in many ways I would agree with that, I was more thinking of the implication of that statement that it could not possibly be an assault if the Commons backed it. While parliament can always change the constitution, a majority of MPs could very well seek to do something which would be an assault on it, as it presently stands. But the suggestion seemed to be we would not be able to claim that if it happened.
  • The Conservative peer Brian Mawhinney has died at the age of 79.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,291
    kle4 said:

    It's why paid astroturfing is dumb in politics, since enthusiastic amateurs are perfectly willing to support the messaging for free.

    But personally I'm here to seek smug self satisfaction.
    I don't think anybody here is a paid shill, it's just that people have hobbyhorses and here they get to ride them. Additionally, some posters are extraordinarily wealthy and don't need payment. I think there is a preponderance of former or current party members or activists, far more than the general public. Although I'm fairly sure me and @Sunil_Prasannan post here as part of the eternal journey towards the final battle between Star Wars and Star Trek fans...

    ...known as the Star Wars Star Trek Wars Trek[1]

    I thank you. :)

    [1] Yes, this joke is from "Futurama" :)
  • He became a twitter obsessive. Lets just say he isn't a fan of Corbyn, Milne and co.
    https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1193086028548059142?s=20
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Noo said:

    How much do you think incumbency is worth? a few percentage points? And with the Lib Dem vote rising nationwide, and the Conservative vote falling, and the Brexit Party standing, it doesn't feel like a Con gain to me. No local knowledge here for me, though, so happy to defer if you know of canvass returns telling a different story.
    The squeeze on BXP in the polls looks about right. It's relatively marginal. It'll either help the Conservatives a little by taking never-Tory voters from Labour or it'll make no difference at all. Certainly not in this part of the world.

    Incumbency can be very important, especially for the Libs - that goes back decades. The Clement Freud example immediately springs to mind. Lamb's majority was only 3,500 - his replacement will doubtless fight hard (they're currently in command of the district council,) but this is a Parliamentary election, in a seat that's old and strongly in favour of Brexit. The Conservatives should win with room to spare.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,291

    I could see the value in using PB as a testing ground for ideas and policies.
    Indeed. the parties post here to identify the most stupid, mendacious and vindictive policies...

    ...and then they adopt them.

    :)
This discussion has been closed.