politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A future history of Labour’s election in ten seats
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A stunning demonstration of patience. Most of us were there a couple of years ago.rottenborough said:Hancock is starting to really annoy me.
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Yes. It shows that Boris is playing a massively risky game. Tory voters tend to be much less sentimental - remember the massive Tory by-election losses in the 1990s? I can imagine Remainer Tories in the SE happily stuffing Boris, whereas northern Leavers get hovering-pencil syndrome in the polling booth and revert back to Labour after all. Boris might be left utterly naked.Dadge said:The Wokingham poll is possibly the biggest news today. Suddenly it does seem as though there is a path to another hung parliament despite Labour's travails. Con gains from Lab are still more likely than LD gains from Con because of the percentage swings required, but the LDs do now have five weeks to get their teeth stuck in to Tory southern England.
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Looks like Patrick Marber playing a twat.rottenborough said:
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Not me. I genuinely don't have an opinion as I have never seen or heard her other than sitting next to Corbyn.bigjohnowls said:
PB Tories in I hate you Butler mode in GE2020rottenborough said:
Butler? Has she ever actually spoken in public?Dadge said:
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.tyson said:Jonathan said:So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......0 -
And that in the Metrorottenborough said:
However, this whole campaign depends on Boris taking the Country by storm and we need to wait sometime to see the outcome
He is Brexit's last and only chance IMHO0 -
Careful here, you are being scammed. 😟TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/davesgould/status/1192193587053834241AndreaParma_82 said:Chris Williamson leaves Labour to stand in Derby North
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1192192053612077065?s=20
Chris didn’t write that letter.
Oswald Moseley did.0 -
I share your pain. And make the same plea - to politicians generally.AlastairMeeks said:A special plea from a header writer. I’ve completed my draft on the Lib Dems and I’ve already had to redraft it once courtesy of Survation. Could none of their candidates do anything rash before it is published? Ta.
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Long-Bailey? Madame Mao without the sense of humour? The personality and charisma equivalent of a black hole?Dadge said:
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.tyson said:Jonathan said:So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......0 -
These moderate Labour MPs supposedly upset that Watson stopped them all going and has now gone anyway. The ones now supposedly all considering jumping?
Quitting the morning that nominations have to go in would be fun. That way the FUCK OFF YOU TORIES momentum brigade can get their wish and see all the Blairites depart. Yes, would have the effect of vacating those seats and leaving them without a Labour candidate. But as Momentum want to win the war against the Labour Party they'll be able to celebrate victory against Blair.
I note that McDonnell is defending the candidate who said she looked forward to celebrating the deaths of Blair and Netanyahu.0 -
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.0 -
Nope. Works for me, as a lapsed Brexiter, but there's going to be a lot of anger after the Tories and BXP cock this up.Byronic said:
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.Philip_Thompson said:
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.Byronic said:
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.Peter_the_Punter said:
TBP splitting the barking vote there.Mysticrose said:
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.0 -
Because his deal won’t bring closure. Is he really going to accept the economic and political cost of a Canada style FTA?egg said:
Ha! Today Johnson promised us hundreds of billions brexit dividend once we get brexit done. The central meme of his whole campaign is get brexit done. And you claim Johnson can’t bring closure?williamglenn said:
Farage is smart. He sees his future as a Le Pen/Salvini figure who works within the EU rather than from the outside. He also knows that Johnson’s deal won’t bring closure.Byronic said:
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.Philip_Thompson said:
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.Byronic said:
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.Peter_the_Punter said:
TBP splitting the barking vote there.Mysticrose said:
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.0 -
You can’t expect everyone to have known already who he is...GIN1138 said:0 -
Yes, for a few hours Labour were rocking, and he stepped up and said 'We're going nowhere, no matter what Jeremy does', and now the fight is over.rottenborough said:0 -
Ydoethur would not break that pun out.rottenborough said:0 -
Yeah, 30 moderates quitting and stuffing labour in those seats would be trays amoozantRochdalePioneers said:These moderate Labour MPs supposedly upset that Watson stopped them all going and has now gone anyway. The ones now supposedly all considering jumping?
Quitting the morning that nominations have to go in would be fun. That way the FUCK OFF YOU TORIES momentum brigade can get their wish and see all the Blairites depart. Yes, would have the effect of vacating those seats and leaving them without a Labour candidate. But as Momentum want to win the war against the Labour Party they'll be able to celebrate victory against Blair.
I note that McDonnell is defending the candidate who said she looked forward to celebrating the deaths of Blair and Netanyahu.0 -
Right so let's say there is a massive 18% swing from the Tories to liberals dems in REMAIN southern shires, which seats are the Tories gaining in the north/midlands and Wales from Labour to gain a majority.
Presuming the Workington Lab to Con swing in LEAVE seats is correct?0 -
Yep. Brexiteers seem intent on blowing up their own project. Either Boris gets back and passes a deal or it is over.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And that in the Metrorottenborough said:
However, this whole campaign depends on Boris taking the Country by storm and we need to wait sometime to see the outcome
He is Brexit's last and only chance IMHO0 -
You think he'll get many votes. Whatsisface is Rochdale didn't.GIN1138 said:
Derby North should be a CON GAIN especially with the Labour vote now splitting.AndreaParma_82 said:Chris Williamson leaves Labour to stand in Derby North
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1192192053612077065?s=20
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There is that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.
But also the potential of a big story.0 -
Look. This is a betting site. She is the bet before her price narrows.alb1on said:
Long-Bailey? Madame Mao without the sense of humour? The personality and charisma equivalent of a black hole?Dadge said:
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.tyson said:Jonathan said:So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
In your opinion she’s rubbish. But you mistake the fact Corbyns timing is based on LB becoming leader whether You thinks she’s credible or not. It’s not your call. Boris majority corbyn stand down in January, she will be labour leader come April. QED.
With support of both jez, McD, Unite, Shadow cabinet and momentum it’s the safest political certainty you could ever bet on.
The more interesting bet is whether Boris government and Brexit becomes so hapless and unpopular LB becomes PM in 2024. What’s the odds when The old ‘can’t be PM because they are crap” just doesn’t play anymore, the last few years have proved so.0 -
Yougov and Sky have teamed up for a daily poll throughout the campaignGIN1138 said:
We may have MORI In The Morning and then that will probably be our lot until Mega Polling Saturday!DavidL said:Are we expecting any polls tonight?
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
Honest, they have1 -
Lordy, I am getting the shakes already. One more poll to last 2 days? Is there the polling equivalent of vaping, I ask myself.GIN1138 said:
We may have MORI In The Morning and then that will probably be our lot until Mega Polling Saturday!DavidL said:Are we expecting any polls tonight?
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
Edit. Oh Yougov, of course.2 -
Any idea how much?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.
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The difficulty is Len McCluskey. He's in favour of Brexit.Jonathan said:So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
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All that could happen, but there are signs of Labour recovery and LD fallback, so the 2017 comparisons cannot be dismissed outright yet.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest Ben I do not see any parallels with 2017Benpointer said:
36 days to go, rolling average Tory lead = 11% (c.f. 18.5% at the same stage in 2017)Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scotland will see loses for conservatives and labour
Wales will see loses for labour
The midlands and north could be a bloodbath for labour
But so could areas of the south for the conservatives to lib dems
This election is wholly unique and I am not forecasting it other than the conservatives the largest party at the very least0 -
If he has a majority he will have five years to ride it out. He knows his deal will cause real economic pain, that's why he needs a majority and a full five year term to try to get to the other side of it. It's very cynical but it might well work out for him.williamglenn said:
Because his deal won’t bring closure. Is he really going to accept the economic and political cost of a Canada style FTA?egg said:
Ha! Today Johnson promised us hundreds of billions brexit dividend once we get brexit done. The central meme of his whole campaign is get brexit done. And you claim Johnson can’t bring closure?williamglenn said:
Farage is smart. He sees his future as a Le Pen/Salvini figure who works within the EU rather than from the outside. He also knows that Johnson’s deal won’t bring closure.Byronic said:
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.Philip_Thompson said:
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.Byronic said:
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.Peter_the_Punter said:
TBP splitting the barking vote there.Mysticrose said:
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.0 -
About 50k to 100k depending on the sample size.Benpointer said:
Any idea how much?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.0 -
If Rupert was still owned SKY he wouldn't pay YouGov for a daily tracker poll after the money he wasted with the YouGov/Sun tracker poll in 2015!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yougov and Sky have teamed up for a daily poll throughout the campaignGIN1138 said:
We may have MORI In The Morning and then that will probably be our lot until Mega Polling Saturday!DavidL said:Are we expecting any polls tonight?
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
Honest, they have 0 -
Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)
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I prefer the cold peremptory starkness of “Onwards”.Benpointer said:
Onwards and Upwards, surelyNigelb said:
Yes, but,,,,SandyRentool said:
What a fucking dickhead.AndreaParma_82 said:Chris Williamson leaves Labour to stand in Derby North
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1192192053612077065?s=20
I’m liking the “Onwards”.
Might steal that for my emails.
(Which happens to be the name of a local scaffolding company here in N Dorset)
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Fishful winking.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think Farage is beginning to lose many in his partyByronic said:
If the polls continue to narrow, I predict this will happen across the country. Farage and the BXP will be hard pressed by their own angry voters. They might not be able to hold the line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another standing down by TBP
BREAKING Truro & Falmouth Brexit Party Steps Down to Avoid Splitting Leave Vote https://t.co/WODAST80r4 https://t.co/6Tl486rY2x0 -
If I was loaded, I would definitely fund a daily poll. And a Scottish Eurovision entry.TheScreamingEagles said:
About 50k to 100k depending on the sample size.Benpointer said:
Any idea how much?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.0 -
He's been quite odious since returning to parliament, when apparently prior to his 2015 loss he was not, but in one respect it's good he is standing as an indy to test his support (theoretically, maybe it's about the payment), and because it can be downright sad when someone is kicked out of a party and still licks its boots.rottenborough said:
Though the only person he cc'd was the great Jezza, whom he declares loyalty to, so it is still a bit sad. Why does he think Corbyn has not saved him somehow?0 -
If you want to depress yourself, do a Google image search for "Bracknell in the past". It was an exquisite old English market town. Then they levelled it to build that 60s shit-hole.GarethoftheVale2 said:
I'm not sure I quite believe that poll. Seems a bit too good to be true for the LDs as Wokingham was estimated at only 58% remain.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary. I wonder how my own stomping ground of Windsor will fare. Will we see a situation where the Tories are totally kicked out of Berkshire? Boris needs to double his efforts in those old northern coal-mining villages if so.Mysticrose said:
This is pretty gobsmackingMysticrose said:
The Tories fairly comfortably won a local by-election in Maidenhead the other day and Theresa May will I predict win with a reduced majority of 10-15k.
Berkshire is definitely not as remainy as places like Esher and 3 seats, Slough, Bracknell and Reading West are estimated to have voted leave.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-41094380
As a silver lining, it is being rebuilt again, like so many British towns. Let's hope they do better.0 -
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I think that has been reversed by herGarethoftheVale2 said:Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)0 -
It’s amusing that so many were calling for the existing lot to be chucked out wholesale, and now there is psychodrama over a minor surge in retirements.GarethoftheVale2 said:Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)0 -
So £50 to £100 per respondant for a typical 1000 sample poll? Seriously?TheScreamingEagles said:
About 50k to 100k depending on the sample size.Benpointer said:
Any idea how much?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.0 -
RLB is 5/1, which seems a good shout this evening. Other bets on the tankie wing of the PLP, in decreasing value, include Pidcock at 10/1, McDonnell at 20/1 and Abbott at e^-π/i.egg said:
Look. This is a betting site. She is the bet before her price narrows.alb1on said:
Long-Bailey? Madame Mao without the sense of humour? The personality and charisma equivalent of a black hole?Dadge said:
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.tyson said:Jonathan said:So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
In your opinion she’s rubbish. But you mistake the fact Corbyns timing is based on LB becoming leader whether You thinks she’s credible or not. It’s not your call. Boris majority corbyn stand down in January, she will be labour leader come April. QED.
With support of both jez, McD, Unite, Shadow cabinet and momentum it’s the safest political certainty you could ever bet on.
The more interesting bet is whether Boris government and Brexit becomes so hapless and unpopular LB becomes PM in 2024. What’s the odds when The old ‘can’t be PM because they are crap” just doesn’t play anymore, the last few years have proved so.1 -
Only 5 weeks to go . It would be great if it was just a two week campaign !0
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Williamson will pick off a few hundred votes from Labour, which may or may not make a difference. He is delusional if he believes he is more popular than your average Monster Raving Loony candidate.Andrew said:
Should be unless the parties are pretty close (3%?)GIN1138 said:
Derby North should be a CON GAIN especially with the Labour vote now splitting.0 -
This feels like the end of the mainstream wing of the Labour Party.rottenborough said:0 -
Apparently DeltaPoll are threatening something similar...Andrew said:
Yougovs are going to swamp the polling narrative, really tedious.GIN1138 said:
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/11921846332633047090 -
Re booted, deselected MPs standing as hopeless independents in their own seat
The "Loss of Office Payment" is now given only to defeated MPs who are standing in the constituency they were sitting for at dissolution.
Angela Smith just discovered that she can't lose anywhere but she has to lose in Penistone to get the money.1 -
(* for the Tories)nico67 said:Only 5 weeks to go . It would be great* if it was just a two week campaign !
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Tomorrow would be fine for the vote !!!!!nico67 said:Only 5 weeks to go . It would be great if it was just a two week campaign !
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Actually I do not think she is rubbish. She is reasonably intelligent (a trait which may disqualify her anyway). But I have always thought a leader needs some vestige of personality which the munchkins can recognise and can be projected to voters. The consequences of a 'no personality' leader can be seen in the likes of IDS, although it can be overdone, as seen in Kinnock. Is it really wise to elect a leader who makes IDS look like Silvio Berlusconi in personality terms?egg said:
Look. This is a betting site. She is the bet before her price narrows.alb1on said:
Long-Bailey? Madame Mao without the sense of humour? The personality and charisma equivalent of a black hole?Dadge said:
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.tyson said:Jonathan said:So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
In your opinion she’s rubbish. But you mistake the fact Corbyns timing is based on LB becoming leader whether You thinks she’s credible or not. It’s not your call. Boris majority corbyn stand down in January, she will be labour leader come April. QED.
With support of both jez, McD, Unite, Shadow cabinet and momentum it’s the safest political certainty you could ever bet on.
The more interesting bet is whether Boris government and Brexit becomes so hapless and unpopular LB becomes PM in 2024. What’s the odds when The old ‘can’t be PM because they are crap” just doesn’t play anymore, the last few years have proved so.0 -
Double entry deleted0
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Loveable buffoon is hiw the media portray him. 😂rottenborough said:0 -
They don't pay the respondent.Benpointer said:
So £50 to £100 per respondant for a typical 1000 sample poll? Seriously?TheScreamingEagles said:
About 50k to 100k depending on the sample size.Benpointer said:
Any idea how much?TheScreamingEagles said:
Eminently possible though I know a lot of media organisations are feeling burned by constituency polling in 2015.Nigelb said:
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?TheScreamingEagles said:After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
These polls cost a lot of money.
Remember they need to call about 10 times the sample number to get a decent response rate, believe it or not, not everyone is happy to spend 30 mins on a phone call about polling.
Then they have to align it with the demographic data of the constituency.0 -
Right, I have decided Scotland can be modelled with a pure Linear Regression. I am ready to roll out my POSSOM for this election
Possibly
Over
Simplistic
Scotland
Observational
Model.
Stay tuned for future POSSOM sightings2 -
When are the postal votes sent out? Can't be much longer than two weeks away.nico67 said:Only 5 weeks to go . It would be great if it was just a two week campaign !
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So at what point does Mayor Pete become value to lay for the nomination? Down to 5/1 on BF at the moment, which given his only real strength is some good numbers in Iowa and still being in it at this stage of winnowing seems a bit short.0
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Esher and Walton polling.
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Very unlikely, because Labour are the main challengers in his seat, not the LDs. The LDs haven't been in second place there since 1987. It was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 (as Wansdyke).egg said:
Not really, Mogg damage is done, legs has gone on it, cairns has legs till he gives up being a candidate. And the Boris launch drowned out by the timing Watson agreed with them. True, when they decided to hurt Boris launch the Tory difficulties were not anticipated by them. Tom couldnt sit on his announcement for ever looking out for a moment he wouldn’t be drowning out the Tory shambles, they may not give him one!ydoethur said:
Bit unfortunate then that what it really distracts attention from is the shambles over Alun Cairns and Jacob Rees-Mogg.egg said:
I agree. My suspicion it’s been done to hurt Boris coverage. They knew about this all weeks if not longer, and picked the day and moment. They may even have written their exchange of letters weeks ago, unless you think it was written in rush this evening when corbyn caught on the hop.Richard_Tyndall said:
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.Mysticrose said:Byronic said:KentRising said:
ch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.
Edit. I think Mogg might be in trouble in his seat.0 -
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:0 -
Watson departing is the biggest event of this election campaign so far - and by miles.0
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Yep.MarqueeMark said:Watson departing is the biggest event of this election campaign so far - and by miles.
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My God. That letter. He went there.kle4 said:
He's been quite odious since returning to parliament, when apparently prior to his 2015 loss he was not, but in one respect it's good he is standing as an indy to test his support (theoretically, maybe it's about the payment), and because it can be downright sad when someone is kicked out of a party and still licks its boots.rottenborough said:
Though the only person he cc'd was the great Jezza, whom he declares loyalty to, so it is still a bit sad. Why does he think Corbyn has not saved him somehow?
With every attempt they make to prove they aren't anti-Semitic, Labour under Corbyn just look more creepily anti-Semitic. Like the Tories over Grenfell trying to prove they are not snobs.
What a delightful election.0 -
Very odd indeed. I had the Conservatives as very likely to hold Eastleigh if Davies had stayed and assumed she was leaving parliament altogether. Without her the LD chances rose substantially. I am still not sure as local and GE results in Eastleigh have been utterly disconnected, but it must have risen several places up the LD hit list (aided by leaflets about the Davies 'chicken run').GarethoftheVale2 said:Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)0 -
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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I think the problem with you gov is they get the mid term elections spot on when voters have made up their minds, and have no issue telling you. Lib Dem’s and BP had votes in the can weeks before the Euros for example. But yougov system breaks in GE when voters aren’t so honest with them. I don’t want to come over all Freud, but ITN vox popping in Sunderland today, it was clear what coy voters were going to do, but they won’t admit it till voting day.Andrew said:
Yougovs are going to swamp the polling narrative, really tedious.GIN1138 said:
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?0 -
Too late. I filled it earlier.nico67 said:
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:
Let's grow UK by leaving the world's largest free trade area. Bonkers.0 -
Now that would be a Portillo moment to savour!TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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I believe applications close on the 26th NovemberOblitusSumMe said:
When are the postal votes sent out? Can't be much longer than two weeks away.nico67 said:Only 5 weeks to go . It would be great if it was just a two week campaign !
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Raab's safe.TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.nico67 said:
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:
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Er... Officially the campaign only starts today.rottenborough said:
Yep.MarqueeMark said:Watson departing is the biggest event of this election campaign so far - and by miles.
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Much that watson is a disgrace over his behaviour over the past few years, its more evidence the PLP post GE is going to have bugger all moderates in positions of power.MarqueeMark said:Watson departing is the biggest event of this election campaign so far - and by miles.
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I think you will find she is staying to fight the seatalb1on said:
Very odd indeed. I had the Conservatives as very likely to hold Eastleigh if Davies had stayed and assumed she was leaving parliament altogether. Without her the LD chances rose substantially. I am still not sure as local and GE results in Eastleigh have been utterly disconnected, but it must have risen several places up the LD hit list (aided by leaflets about the Davies 'chicken run').GarethoftheVale2 said:Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)0 -
Yes it’s demented . Let’s also be the first country in history to negotiate less access to its biggest market .rottenborough said:
Too late. I filled it earlier.nico67 said:
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:
Let's grow UK by leaving the world's largest free trade area. Bonkers.0 -
,
Tactical voting might just screw Raab.MarqueeMark said:
Raab's safe.TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
We need Andrew Bridgen and JRM to go campaign there and it'll be a Lib Dem landslide.0 -
It is a better look than his Fred Scuttle impression.nunu2 said:
Loveable buffoon is hiw the media portray him. 😂rottenborough said:0 -
0
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Do you know when the UK last had a trade surplus ?rottenborough said:
Too late. I filled it earlier.nico67 said:
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:
Let's grow UK by leaving the world's largest free trade area. Bonkers.0 -
How can you be sure?MarqueeMark said:
Raab's safe.TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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Jesus Christ. Do you still not understand? We are not leaving a simple free trade area, we are leaving a free trade area umbilically attached to an overweening, corrupt and statist political bureaucracy which would happily sacrifice democracy and freedom to pursue its malign intent to become a quasi empire.rottenborough said:
Too late. I filled it earlier.nico67 said:
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:
Let's grow UK by leaving the world's largest free trade area. Bonkers.
THAT is the EU. That is what we are leaving. The EU is a piece of shit. It marginally adds to our prosperity, but it is shit, and it is surely doomed in its present guise.1 -
Newsnight showing its uniqueness tonight by rapidly switching to leading on Watson and filling in loads of background.0
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0
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Yes I know. You’ve reassured me Mogg is fighting on quicksand. It needs a poll or two to back up Lib Dem charts showing them closing in, labour to campaign with a light touch, and Mogg gone and dusted.AndyJS said:
Very unlikely, because Labour are the main challengers in his seat, not the LDs. The LDs haven't been in second place there since 1987. It was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 (as Wansdyke).egg said:
Not really, Mogg damage is done, legs has gone on it, cairns has legs till he gives up being a candidate. And the Boris launch drowned out by the timing Watson agreed with them. True, when they decided to hurt Boris launch the Tory difficulties were not anticipated by them. Tom couldnt sit on his announcement for ever looking out for a moment he wouldn’t be drowning out the Tory shambles, they may not give him one!ydoethur said:
Bit unfortunate then that what it really distracts attention from is the shambles over Alun Cairns and Jacob Rees-Mogg.egg said:
I agree. My suspicion it’s been done to hurt Boris coverage. They knew about this all weeks if not longer, and picked the day and moment. They may even have written their exchange of letters weeks ago, unless you think it was written in rush this evening when corbyn caught on the hop.Richard_Tyndall said:
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.Mysticrose said:Byronic said:KentRising said:
ch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.
Edit. I think Mogg might be in trouble in his seat.
Meanwhile Lib Dem’s arent taking Cheltenham. This is how elections work.0 -
Watson has left to become a gym instructor.0
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Vox pops are a waste of time and so are the broadcasters bus tours seeking opinion.egg said:
I think the problem with you gov is they get the mid term elections spot on when voters have made up their minds, and have no issue telling you. Lib Dem’s and BP had votes in the can weeks before the Euros for example. But yougov system breaks in GE when voters aren’t so honest with them. I don’t want to come over all Freud, but ITN vox popping in Sunderland today, it was clear what coy voters were going to do, but they won’t admit it till voting day.Andrew said:
Yougovs are going to swamp the polling narrative, really tedious.GIN1138 said:
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
By the nature of the rules they have to find balance and it makes the whole exercise pointless
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Gavin Shuker: the moderates in the Labour Party have lost.0
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And if she does after the fiasco of 'now you see me going, now you don't', she will be more damaged than a new candidate. All the LDs need do is put out material with the headlines from 3 consecutive stories;Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you will find she is staying to fight the seatalb1on said:
Very odd indeed. I had the Conservatives as very likely to hold Eastleigh if Davies had stayed and assumed she was leaving parliament altogether. Without her the LD chances rose substantially. I am still not sure as local and GE results in Eastleigh have been utterly disconnected, but it must have risen several places up the LD hit list (aided by leaflets about the Davies 'chicken run').GarethoftheVale2 said:Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)
"I am leaving"
"Mid Sussex short list Mims Davies"
"I have changed my mind and am staying"
She looks a complete fool.0 -
No, hes gonna be the Elmer Fudd of Pedo huntersrottenborough said:Watson has left to become a gym instructor.
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A shame most of the truly desired ones are rock solid safe. I'll take what I can get I suppose.Benpointer said:
Now that would be a Portillo moment to savour!TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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How aboutkle4 said:
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.nico67 said:
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .rottenborough said:
GET BORIS DONE
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And the country as well....AndyJS said:Gavin Shuker: the moderates in the Labour Party have lost.
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Their hubris just knows no bounds.williamglenn said:
How can you be sure?MarqueeMark said:
Raab's safe.TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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Because Lord JohnO has said so!williamglenn said:
How can you be sure?MarqueeMark said:
Raab's safe.TheScreamingEagles said:Esher and Walton polling.
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