Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
Unbelievable LAB meltdown with the loss of their moderate deputy. What do cyclefree Meeks Tyson and the other hard left corbinystas think about this!?
I’m a hard left corbynista, am I?!?!?
At the moment, all I’m thinking is that given his success at losing weight, getting fit and reversing his Type 2 diabetes, he’d be a good choice of gym instructor - and I could do with one. But I don’t think, somehow, that was the answer you were expecting.
Still, me a Corbynista ..... hahahahahahahahahaha!
I suspect Ave_It was being a bit cheeky there. Just a hunch...
Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
I can't see the Tories beating Cooper, her seat is 170th on the Tory target list, the Brexit Party might have an outside chance though
Unbelievable LAB meltdown with the loss of their moderate deputy. What do cyclefree Meeks Tyson and the other hard left corbinystas think about this!?
I’m a hard left corbynista, am I?!?!?
At the moment, all I’m thinking is that given his success at losing weight, getting fit and reversing his Type 2 diabetes, he’d be a good choice of gym instructor - and I could do with one. But I don’t think, somehow, that was the answer you were expecting.
Still, me a Corbynista ..... hahahahahahahahahaha!
You have been identified as a hard left corbynista. A good healthy walk every day combats type 2 diabetes. Hope you take your health advice from me 😊
Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
What did the tweet say? Who posted it?
TSE linked to the tweet early on in this thread I think
Robert Peston speculated yesterday that a lot of Labour MPs might defect to the LDs after the election in order to avoid supporting Corbyn in the future.
Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Get Brexit done works if Brexit is your number one priority. As GE2017 proved, it turned out to be only one of a number of factors.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
About that... Brexit is much more important now than it was in 2017.
Interesting. Though it's obviously been the number one topic on here for some time now, I'd imagined the man (or woman) in the street would be much more sick of it by now.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Get Brexit done works if Brexit is your number one priority. As GE2017 proved, it turned out to be only one of a number of factors.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
About that... Brexit is much more important now than it was in 2017.
Interesting. Though it's obviously been the number one topic on here for some time now, I'd imagined the man (or woman) in the street would be much more sick of it by now.
Tbh that's probably precisely why it's risen to top issue.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Get Brexit done works if Brexit is your number one priority. As GE2017 proved, it turned out to be only one of a number of factors.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
About that... Brexit is much more important now than it was in 2017.
Interesting. Though it's obviously been the number one topic on here for some time now, I'd imagined the man (or woman) in the street would be much more sick of it by now.
Tbh that's probably precisely why it's risen to top issue.
Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
Unbelievable LAB meltdown with the loss of their moderate deputy. What do cyclefree Meeks Tyson and the other hard left corbinystas think about this!?
I’m a hard left corbynista, am I?!?!?
At the moment, all I’m thinking is that given his success at losing weight, getting fit and reversing his Type 2 diabetes, he’d be a good choice of gym instructor - and I could do with one. But I don’t think, somehow, that was the answer you were expecting.
Still, me a Corbynista ..... hahahahahahahahahaha!
You have been identified as a hard left corbynista. A good healthy walk every day combats type 2 diabetes. Hope you take your health advice from me 😊
Always entertaining with me. I like to offset the normal preponderance of hard left opinion on this site. Only HYUFD me and malcolmg offer a moderate centre opinion 😊
Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
Those numbers also have Chuka now a clear 2nd in Cities of London and Westminster on 27% to 35% for the Tories and Labour fallen to 3rd on 22%, so he could win it with Labour tactical votes
Tories just 3% behind Labour in Newcastle North on 28% to 31% for Labour and shockingly Tories ahead in Blair's old seat of Sedgefield on 34% to 30% for Labour. Tories also lead in all 3 Stoke seats and in Newport West
Tories just 3% behind Labour in Newcastle North on 28% to 31% for Labour and shockingly Tories ahead in Blair's old seat of Sedgefield on 34% to 30% for Labour
We have to take these figures with a pinch of salt because, for example, in many seats the projected Tory share is down by about 15% which is obviously completely out of line with the current opinion polls. I think the research may have been undertaken a couple of months back when the Conservatives were averaging about 30% in the polls.
For instance, in Aldridge-Brownhills the Tories are on 48% compared to 65% at GE2017.
Tories just 3% behind Labour in Newcastle North on 28% to 31% for Labour and shockingly Tories ahead in Blair's old seat of Sedgefield on 34% to 30% for Labour
We have to take these figures with a pinch of salt because, for example, in many seats the projected Tory share is down by about 15% which is obviously completely out of line with the current opinion polls. I think the research may have been undertaken a couple of months back when the Conservatives were averaging about 30% in the polls.
For instance, in Aldridge-Brownhills the Tories are on 48% compared to 65% at GE2017.
The Tories would not be ahead in Sedgefield if the data was months old, the Tory vote is down on 2017 but the Tory lead over Labour is up
I think this will be the most entertaining election night of our life times as it will literally be a case of watching each seat come in and having no idea which way it'll go.
Yes, possible UUP gain, Hermon got 50% as UUP candidate in 2005 before going independent
DUP 38 last time should be enough to win against UUP, Alliance and Greens. Without Hermon the tactical voters will scatter unless UUP are clearly winning (Remain will vote UUP to beat DUP). Contrast with Belfast South where the tactical Remain voters seem quite clearly on the side of Claire Hanna because it is assumed she will get the republican votes as well as SDLP votes now, even though Paula Bradshaw, currently of Alliance, is equally contesting.
Tories just 3% behind Labour in Newcastle North on 28% to 31% for Labour and shockingly Tories ahead in Blair's old seat of Sedgefield on 34% to 30% for Labour
We have to take these figures with a pinch of salt because, for example, in many seats the projected Tory share is down by about 15% which is obviously completely out of line with the current opinion polls. I think the research may have been undertaken a couple of months back when the Conservatives were averaging about 30% in the polls.
For instance, in Aldridge-Brownhills the Tories are on 48% compared to 65% at GE2017.
The model is flawed and overly weights remain /leave and UNS as a driver. You see the flip side in safe Labour seats - it has all the Liverpool safe labour seats in the 50s, rather than 70s and 80s in GE 2017. It has Labour at 33% in Makerfield and Leigh.
Amber rain warning for 20 hours from 07:00 later today in the area bounded by the Sheffield/Leeds/Manchester triangle. Take care folks. Floodwater is more dangerous than it looks.
LDs just 8% behind the Tories in Chelmsford on 28% to 36% for the Tories, Chelmsford now has a smaller Tory lead in Essex than Harlow where the Tories lead Labour by 19% and Colchester where the Tories lead the LDs by 11%
If 2001 was the most boring election night ever 2019 promises to be the most entertaining ever.
If only there wasn't a possibility of the Marxist Muppet Bunch getting hold of power. Given there is, it is less enjoyable and more like being forced to watch some horror movie.
If 2001 was the most boring election night ever 2019 promises to be the most entertaining ever.
If only there wasn't a possibility of the Marxist Muppet Bunch getting hold of power. Given there is, it is less enjoyable and more like being forced to watch some horror movie.
He himself will deliver the exit poll unto us a few seconds after ten, so we'll have a good idea by then!
If 2001 was the most boring election night ever 2019 promises to be the most entertaining ever.
If people and bookies start to take those MRP constituency numbers seriously, then there will be great value in backing Labour and Tory in safe seats. I wonder whether this is what drove those strange odds on Barnsley last weekend that were flagged.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Unionists can only win here if they have an agreed candidate. SF do not need a pact. The DUP has agreed to support an agreed candidate, conditional on that agreed candidate being a person they have chosen (albeit from the UUP). But if it is indeed Tom Elliott, the 59%+ Remainers may well stay at home in this, the most bordery constituency of them all. So I would bet on SF here. They have not been doing well this year to date. But there is no harmonious Unionist + Brexiteer majority here.
After seeing 'MRP' bandied about in quite a few posts recently I made the effort to go and find out about Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP).
The concept is interesting and the underpinning theory seems plausible to a non-statistician but the explanation didn't go in to any potential flaws in the system, I assume there will be limitations.
My other half works at ONS so i'll ask her and her geeky mates to take a look at it.
If 2001 was the most boring election night ever 2019 promises to be the most entertaining ever.
If people and bookies start to take those MRP constituency numbers seriously, then there will be great value in backing Labour and Tory in safe seats. I wonder whether this is what drove those strange odds on Barnsley last weekend that were flagged.
Comments
"Sylvia Hermon to stand down as MP for North Down"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50323768
The getvoting tactical voting website has the following figures from a few weeks ago, (although their reliability is hotly disputed):
Lab 32.0%
Con 26.2%
BRX 21.7%
LD 13.0%
Grn 5.0%
PS: this isn't a constituency poll, it's done using MRP.
https://getvoting.org
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1191349823674474496
Time to leave. Top 2 for CON
But I am good on Type 2 diabetes avoidance
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vf2iQOKjc6Lk7tTcTpRgEFFLIV-GoTIpj9ldtg8400k/edit#gid=1377832468
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vf2iQOKjc6Lk7tTcTpRgEFFLIV-GoTIpj9ldtg8400k/edit#gid=1377832468
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_standing_down_at_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
For instance, in Aldridge-Brownhills the Tories are on 48% compared to 65% at GE2017.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vf2iQOKjc6Lk7tTcTpRgEFFLIV-GoTIpj9ldtg8400k/edit#gid=1377832468
You see the flip side in safe Labour seats - it has all the Liverpool safe labour seats in the 50s, rather than 70s and 80s in GE 2017. It has Labour at 33% in Makerfield and Leigh.
DYOR 😊
Goodnight
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vf2iQOKjc6Lk7tTcTpRgEFFLIV-GoTIpj9ldtg8400k/edit#gid=1377832468
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vf2iQOKjc6Lk7tTcTpRgEFFLIV-GoTIpj9ldtg8400k/edit#gid=1377832468
The concept is interesting and the underpinning theory seems plausible to a non-statistician but the explanation didn't go in to any potential flaws in the system, I assume there will be limitations.
My other half works at ONS so i'll ask her and her geeky mates to take a look at it.
For those like me who had no idea what MRP is...
https://www.survation.com/what-is-mrp/