Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
Farage has been a pro-Labour agent-provocateur ever since he left the Tory Party.
Edit. I think Mogg might be in trouble in his seat
LibDems would need a 26% swing and it's *only* 18% on the two Survation seats released today
Well, the Moggster is doing everything he can. The Tories would be wise to lock him in the crypt until Dec 13th.
It’s just got that feel about it, where you are looking elsewhere because polls suggested it safe, yet signs are its becoming less solid Tory electorate, like Bath 92.
Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party. No wonder he's quit.
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it. Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.
We usually have a better class of imposter.
I was parodied for a time on Guido's site by some imposter..... Byronic is doing his level best to parady Sean Thomas...he's gone to such lengths he usually pitches up at the same times, uses the same vernacular, occasionally veers off into leeriness....he's a very fucking good imposter indeed......
It's a flattering comparison, but I don't think I really match the great man himself, the King of PB, the one, the only, the brilliant, the witty and inimitable SeanT, Peace Be Upon Him. He was truly a titan. The world seems a pinched and craven place without him. Almost bleached of life.
But if Mr Byronic is indeed going to shoot off to the South Pole for a few weeks to do some male modelling, is it possible the the one and only ST will dare to show his face here again while he is away?
Corbyns letter clearly pre written. And it does time beautifully with Boris launch.
But this being election fever everyone entitled to believe inside their bubble, not accept truth. 😀
Quite good way to pass the dark nights, December elections, eh?
But Watson cuts both ways - dead cats both the Boris launch, and the Rees Mogg Cairns Bridgen stuff. Who is to say whether this net damages or helps the Tories?
Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it. Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
No disrespect to Survation but individual constituency polling is fraught with difficulties and is often woefully wide of the mark. Who can forget the Great Ashcroft Debacle in 2015?
Yikes, poll of 405 people. MoE @95% is 4.9%, and@99% it's 6.4%. The latter is worth considering imo - we're going to have a whole bundle of constituency polls and inevitably a few will be in the latter confidence interval.
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.
If Farage blows Brexit he may end up being run out of the country by his fans... (not literally but you get the idea)
Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it. Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
As an ardent Remainer sorry to see Tom Watson go. His letter though will be bitterly disappointing to the media who wanted it to be an anti Corbyn tirade .
Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party. No wonder he's quit.
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it. Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.
We usually have a better class of imposter.
I was parodied for a time on Guido's site by some imposter..... Byronic is doing his level best to parady Sean Thomas...he's gone to such lengths he usually pitches up at the same times, uses the same vernacular, occasionally veers off into leeriness....he's a very fucking good imposter indeed......
It's a flattering comparison, but I don't think I really match the great man himself, the King of PB, the one, the only, the brilliant, the witty and inimitable SeanT, Peace Be Upon Him. He was truly a titan. The world seems a pinched and craven place without him. Almost bleached of life.
But if Mr Byronic is indeed going to shoot off to the South Pole for a few weeks to do some male modelling, is it possible the the one and only ST will dare to show his face here again while he is away?
Hope not. If he was going to come back, he wouldn’t have been able to miss the excitement of all this this far, it’s right up his street, even the self moderated of us are putting our life on hold to post half crazed, sleep deprived gonzo.
And with that, I really do need to feed the kids now and put them to bed.
No disrespect to Survation but individual constituency polling is fraught with difficulties and is often woefully wide of the mark. Who can forget the Great Ashcroft Debacle in 2015?
Yikes, poll of 405 people. MoE @95% is 4.9%, and@99% it's 6.4%. The latter is worth considering imo - we're going to have a whole bundle of constituency polls and inevitably a few will be in the latter confidence interval.
Of course. They aren't accurate. However, if you look at polls as means of identifying trends - and then promoting / causing actions based on that, all things are possible. Blair absolutely should not have seen Twigg defeat Portillo. And yet with momentum going people stared wondering which of the bastards they could remove if they thought hard enough...
If the Tories are close to their tally in 2017 overall and are down sharply in seats like South Cambridgeshire and Wokingham, they must be up in other seats elsewhere...
Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it. Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Bloody new thread! It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age. We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Edit- It looks like a first by a landslide too!
What are your views on Rees Mogg?
Can anybody defend him? Surely better to move on, he is apparently regarded as a good constituency MP despite being a privileged twat but that’s up to the people of NES.
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.
Farage is smart. He sees his future as a Le Pen/Salvini figure who works within the EU rather than from the outside. He also knows that Johnson’s deal won’t bring closure.
No disrespect to Survation but individual constituency polling is fraught with difficulties and is often woefully wide of the mark. Who can forget the Great Ashcroft Debacle in 2015?
Yikes, poll of 405 people. MoE @95% is 4.9%, and@99% it's 6.4%. The latter is worth considering imo - we're going to have a whole bundle of constituency polls and inevitably a few will be in the latter confidence interval.
Of course. They aren't accurate. However, if you look at polls as means of identifying trends - and then promoting / causing actions based on that, all things are possible. Blair absolutely should not have seen Twigg defeat Portillo. And yet with momentum going people stared wondering which of the bastards they could remove if they thought hard enough...
They would identify trends, if the LibDems were publishing all their Survation polls. They are not obliged to do that.
They are (most likely) only publishing the favourable ones.
Hence, the constituency polls have to be seen through this enormous selection bias.
No disrespect to Survation but individual constituency polling is fraught with difficulties and is often woefully wide of the mark. Who can forget the Great Ashcroft Debacle in 2015?
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.
No disrespect to Survation but individual constituency polling is fraught with difficulties and is often woefully wide of the mark. Who can forget the Great Ashcroft Debacle in 2015?
Yikes, poll of 405 people. MoE @95% is 4.9%, and@99% it's 6.4%. The latter is worth considering imo - we're going to have a whole bundle of constituency polls and inevitably a few will be in the latter confidence interval.
Of course. They aren't accurate. However, if you look at polls as means of identifying trends - and then promoting / causing actions based on that, all things are possible. Blair absolutely should not have seen Twigg defeat Portillo. And yet with momentum going people stared wondering which of the bastards they could remove if they thought hard enough...
They would identify trends, if the LibDems were publishing all their Survation polls. They are not obliged to do that.
They are (most likely) only publishing the favourable ones.
Hence, the constituency polls have to be seen through this enormous selection bias.
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
Watson should have gone with Chuka and co. If Watson had gone rather than staying behind and encouraging everyone else to stay too there might have been a sensible alternative to Corbyn's Labour.
We would be looking at very different politics now if he had.
If Williamson hadn’t resigned, he would surely have been thrown out for the extraordinary outpouring of racism in his resignation letter. Positively Irvingesque.
Watson should have gone with Chuka and co. If Watson had gone rather than staying behind and encouraging everyone else to stay too there might have been a sensible alternative to Corbyn's Labour.
We would be looking at very different politics now if he had.
I don't think some of you are taking as seriously as you ought just how tainted (toxic) Watson had become because of his self-interested promotion of Carl Beech aka. Nick.
There was a clamour for him to resign over Beech and he should have done so.
I don't know, I go out to the neighbours* for a lovely meal and come back to Watson throwing in the towel.
However bad is Labour's internal polling in the Midlands?
* He is 91 next month, she is a couple of years younger and recently fought off cancer - not remission, gone. She made duck and the finest Bakewell tart you could very want. We talked politics for a couple of hours. Bless them.
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
So I guess the upside will be when all of the Entryists go and support Williamson, either in person or online, they'll be expelled from the Labour Party.
Watson should have gone with Chuka and co. If Watson had gone rather than staying behind and encouraging everyone else to stay too there might have been a sensible alternative to Corbyn's Labour.
We would be looking at very different politics now if he had.
I don't think some of you are taking as seriously as you ought just how tainted (toxic) Watson had become because of his self-interested promotion of Carl Beech aka. Nick.
There was a clamour for him to resign over Beech and he should have done so.
Toxic? Watson? have you seen Corbyn's approval ratings? There's toxic.
Extraordinary. I wonder how my own stomping ground of Windsor will fare. Will we see a situation where the Tories are totally kicked out of Berkshire? Boris needs to double his efforts in those old northern coal-mining villages if so.
The Wokingham poll is possibly the biggest news today. Suddenly it does seem as though there is a path to another hung parliament despite Labour's travails. Con gains from Lab are still more likely than LD gains from Con because of the percentage swings required, but the LDs do now have five weeks to get their teeth stuck in to Tory southern England.
Unusually it might bear passing resemblance to facts
Is it another i"magine only LDs ot Tories can win pol"l or a proper one. Maybe it's an "imagine Tory Swinson was not a Tory and didnt have an annoying voice but and I know this is stretching it she is also PM material how would you vote" poll.
Got to love him. Does a deal with the Tories on Derby council. Pushes PFI. Becomes a Blairite MP before losing his seat. Becomes not only a Born Again Socialist, but an "I will say anything to promote Corbyn" advocate. Touring the country encouraging Corbynite members to rise up and overthrow their true class enemy (Blairites and other people who do dealso with Tories).
Then goes too far. Says something awful. Gets defended because He Supports Corbyn. Wins reinstatement, gets immediately suspended again. Draws on the support of Corbyn loyalists to Crowdfund Suing the Labour Party.
Finally gets deselected and announces he will run against the Labour Party and thus do a deal with the Tories to help them win the seat. Whilst continuing to both claim loyalty to and gain support from supporters of Corbyn.
Has there ever been a GE with so many MPs defecting and standing again as Independents or for another party, or standing down in circumstances that appear other than routine, or being thrown out by their own parties?
Looking forward to the Long-Bailey and Pidcock dream team in the next parliament.
LB certain to be next Labour leader I agree. A sizeable Boris majority Corbyn stand down in January, LB will be labour leader come April. With support of both jez, McD, Unite, Shadow cabinet and momentum it’s the safest political certainty you could ever bet on.
Not sure about Pidcock getting deputy. Elections to all three posts, leader and the two deputies likely to happen same time in new year, Unions might choose to balance the party ticket, like days of bambi and thumper. Who else is up and coming in the Labour Party but not clearly unite or momentum? Maybe Starmer. older more experienced person to balance the ticket. Starmer and Creasy as LBs first deputy’s
Instead pidders could shadow something like home office in LBs first cabinet.
Milton Keynes North:Ben Everitt. He's Cllr Great Brickhill and Newton Longville in Aylesbury Vale
Loughborough: Jane Hunt. Charnwood Cllr. Works for Nicky Morgan
Broadland: Nick Conrad. BBC Norfolk Radio presenter
Conrad is another disaster waiting to happen.
Anyone know who is standing for Tories in Chesterfield he/she didnt come to Candidate briefing today. An ex Tory Candidate is the BXT party candidate though
If the Tories are close to their tally in 2017 overall and are down sharply in seats like South Cambridgeshire and Wokingham, they must be up in other seats elsewhere...
No disrespect to Survation but individual constituency polling is fraught with difficulties and is often woefully wide of the mark. Who can forget the Great Ashcroft Debacle in 2015?
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.
Looking forward to the Long-Bailey and Pidcock dream team in the next parliament.
LB certain to be next Labour leader I agree. A sizeable Boris majority Corbyn stand down in January, LB will be labour leader come April. With support of both jez, McD, Unite, Shadow cabinet and momentum it’s the safest political certainty you could ever bet on.
Not sure about Pidcock getting deputy. Elections to all three posts, leader and the two deputies likely to happen same time in new year, Unions might choose to balance the party ticket, like days of bambi and thumper. Who else is up and coming in the Labour Party but not clearly unite or momentum? Maybe Starmer. older more experienced person to balance the ticket. Starmer and Creasy as LBs first deputy’s
Instead pidders could shadow something like home office in LBs first cabinet.
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.
Yes, but who do you think will be the next Leader?
After tomorrow (I think) we will not see any more Lib Dem constituency polls.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
Though given some of the ... suggestive results we’ve seen today, it’s possible pollsters might have a look at one or two on their own account (or get someone in the media to pay for it) ?
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.
Extraordinary. I wonder how my own stomping ground of Windsor will fare. Will we see a situation where the Tories are totally kicked out of Berkshire? Boris needs to double his efforts in those old northern coal-mining villages if so.
I'm not sure I quite believe that poll. Seems a bit too good to be true for the LDs as Wokingham was estimated at only 58% remain.
The Tories fairly comfortably won a local by-election in Maidenhead the other day and Theresa May will I predict win with a reduced majority of 10-15k.
Berkshire is definitely not as remainy as places like Esher and 3 seats, Slough, Bracknell and Reading West are estimated to have voted leave.
Wokingham is exactly the kind of seat where the BXP will come under intense pressure to step aside.
The MP is John Redwood, FFS. The first Brexiteer and a Majorite Bastard. If the BXP stand there then they have zero interest in any real Brexit and are indeed actively conspiring against it.
I predict they won't stand. And Redwood will win.
If Redwood isn't a strong enough Brexiteer then there is nobody strong enough.
Farage is an ego. That's all he cares about, he doesn't care about the election.
Farage is a fucking idiot. He is risking everything out of vanity. This will not work out well in the end.
Farage is smart. He sees his future as a Le Pen/Salvini figure who works within the EU rather than from the outside. He also knows that Johnson’s deal won’t bring closure.
Ha! Today Johnson promised us hundreds of billions brexit dividend once we get brexit done. The central meme of his whole campaign is get brexit done. And you claim Johnson can’t bring closure?
Comments
Redwood might well go. Wokingham is a pretty remainish seat, and the guy really is from a different planet.
It's @MikeSmithson , isn't it?...
Both parties are losing some big characters.
And with that, I really do need to feed the kids now and put them to bed.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1192192053612077065?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derby_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
They are (most likely) only publishing the favourable ones.
Hence, the constituency polls have to be seen through this enormous selection bias.
Cons 340ish Lab 190ish Libs 40 SNP40
Milton Keynes North:Ben Everitt. He's Cllr Great Brickhill and Newton Longville in Aylesbury Vale
Loughborough: Jane Hunt. Charnwood Cllr. Works for Nicky Morgan
Broadland: Nick Conrad. BBC Norfolk Radio presenter
If Williamson hadn’t resigned, he would surely have been thrown out for the extraordinary outpouring of racism in his resignation letter. Positively Irvingesque.
What can you say...? The guy is a wanker with a capital W
At least this is honest. Williamson does not represent anything that most of us would recognise as the Labour party.
But he was Corbyn's pal?
There was a clamour for him to resign over Beech and he should have done so.
However bad is Labour's internal polling in the Midlands?
* He is 91 next month, she is a couple of years younger and recently fought off cancer - not remission, gone. She made duck and the finest Bakewell tart you could very want. We talked politics for a couple of hours. Bless them.
The spending limits kick in and boy does constituency polling cost a lot of wonga, IIRC one poll will breach the limit by some distance.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
But you never know.....
If anyone digs a bit, there's plenty of dirt.
Got to love him. Does a deal with the Tories on Derby council. Pushes PFI. Becomes a Blairite MP before losing his seat. Becomes not only a Born Again Socialist, but an "I will say anything to promote Corbyn" advocate. Touring the country encouraging Corbynite members to rise up and overthrow their true class enemy (Blairites and other people who do dealso with Tories).
Then goes too far. Says something awful. Gets defended because He Supports Corbyn. Wins reinstatement, gets immediately suspended again. Draws on the support of Corbyn loyalists to Crowdfund Suing the Labour Party.
Finally gets deselected and announces he will run against the Labour Party and thus do a deal with the Tories to help them win the seat. Whilst continuing to both claim loyalty to and gain support from supporters of Corbyn.
Just how stupid are some Corbyn supporters...
But comrade, Boris Johnson eclipses all these by a country margin and nobody appears to give a flying fuck.....
Not sure about Pidcock getting deputy. Elections to all three posts, leader and the two deputies likely to happen same time in new year, Unions might choose to balance the party ticket, like days of bambi and thumper. Who else is up and coming in the Labour Party but not clearly unite or momentum? Maybe Starmer. older more experienced person to balance the ticket. Starmer and Creasy as LBs first deputy’s
Instead pidders could shadow something like home office in LBs first cabinet.
Anything else happening?
And other LEAVE labour seats. I mean.....
*gets coat*
Scotland will see loses for conservatives and labour
Wales will see loses for labour
The midlands and north could be a bloodbath for labour
But so could areas of the south for the conservatives to lib dems
This election is wholly unique and I am not forecasting it other than the conservatives the largest party at the very least
I’m liking the “Onwards”.
Might steal that for my emails.
The Tories fairly comfortably won a local by-election in Maidenhead the other day and Theresa May will I predict win with a reduced majority of 10-15k.
Berkshire is definitely not as remainy as places like Esher and 3 seats, Slough, Bracknell and Reading West are estimated to have voted leave.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/dec/02/bbc-pressure-sack-radio-norfolk-presenter-rape-comments
A few examples. Kirsty Strickland, mentioned in the Guardian article, is now a journalist, told her story on Twitter earlier.
His judgement is poor, to say the least.
(Which happens to be the name of a local scaffolding company here in N Dorset)
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1192194958876463104