politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A future history of Labour’s election in ten seats
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Open the debate and then shut it again - it happening is proof of the direction being pretty firm.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other1 -
I took it more as a surgical strike on the trots rather than fear for his seat.ydoethur said:
If Labour are scared of losing WBE they are either completely crazy or in epochal trouble. One of the first signs of hubris in the May campaign was the belief that it was in play.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I think it’s more likely there was some manoeuvring behind the scenes within Labour. That tweet can be read in a number of ways - e.g. ‘I’ll campaign for brilliant Labour candidates, which excludes all the momentum nutters and racists.’
But that was just my impression0 -
Watson's Quit! = Tickell's dead!0
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Union? Ah, you mean the Customs Union!HYUFD said:
Leave the EU with a free trade deal and little threat to Unionrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192160424806027264
Unleash Britain's potential?
You are having laugh Tories. Leave the world's largest free market (which your heroine was instrumental in setting up) and probably wreck the union of Britain in the process.0 -
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.
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It's the only party with double-digit support from both leave and remain.Nigelb said:
Looking at those figures, I can only say.... and the Tories call Labour tribal ?camel said:off topic
Remainers vs. Leavers: Who are the most ardent?
From the YouGov / The Times / Sky Survey Results
Remainy Parties:
Lab: 36% of Remainers,9% of Leavers
Lib: 33% of Remainers, 3% of Leavers
SNP: 6% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Plaid: 1% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Green: 6% of remainers, 3% of Leavers
Total Remainy Parties: 83% of Remainers, 17% of Leavers
Brexity Parties:
Con: 17% of Remainers, 59% of Leavers
BXP: 0% of Remainers, 22% of Leavers
Total Brexity Parties: 17% of Remainers, 81% of Leavers
So there we have it: About 17% of both remainers and leavers are sufficiently unardent (inardent?) to vote for a party offering the opposite of what they voted for in 2016.
i) About 1% voted for other parties
ii) I have assumed that labour is a remainy party.
iii) I failed the stats module in my degree0 -
Tom Watson:
I'm a celebrity get me out of here?
He gets to share a hammock with ant, dec and spreadsheet phil.0 -
Is it just me or is "Unleash Britain's Potential" a really shit slogan? Also what is with the vile comic sans style font? It's like they decided that in order to appeal to working class Northern voters they needed to make their election material look like it was advertising a two for one offer on socks in Asda.
But what do I know, I'm sure it's been focus grouped to death, and I'm not the target audience.0 -
Tories and Labour in meltdown. How many seats will the Lib Dems win?kle4 said:
Open the debate and then shut it again - it happening is proof of the direction being pretty firm.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
I agree with you Byronic. The peedogate has damaged him, as whatever he says to defend himself sounds so lame. He torpedoed his own credibility and career really, thinking he was on to a winner.Byronic said:
Is that such a MASSIVE surprise? The pedogate thing is looming. This way he ducks the worst scrutiny, and gets to damage Corbyn and McDonnell, who he hates.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Most of all though, from Rudd to Watson, whole load of people standing down because the greasy pole has got too slippery for them, they are facing the fact their career can’t go forward, only tread water or sink. Although they all don’t explicitly say so, it’s that knowledge that’s really guiding them.0 -
To be fair, that must be a major factor. Working in this environment must be hellish.Nigelb said:
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.0 -
Wife just answered YouGov questions about voting intentions in Edinburgh East, named candidates.0
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Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.0 -
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:2 -
The Tragedy of the Commons.sirclive said:
Environmental policies should not involve committing economic suicide by wasting billions each year on measures which will have no discernible benefit. If we decarbonise the whole UK it will make no difference whatsoever to the climate. Natural causes and other countries are the factors beyond our control. Why should we all go back to the dark ages just to make us feel less guilty??Foxy said:
I think both Lab and LD should go heavy on the Environment. The youngsters are keen, and there seem to be plenty my age and older at XR demonstrations too. Tories are weak and split on the issue.twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Edit- It looks like a first by a landslide too!
I would be interested on your thoughts on the Grenfell fire disaster too.0 -
I hope the Beeb are snapping up all these departing politicians for Strictly next year.1
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I suppose no need for Harvey Proctor to stand in West Brom now then. All to play for George Galloway? Let's hope not!0
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I don’t think she had any relish for it.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:1 -
Of course.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
To be fair, that must be a major factor. Working in this environment must be hellish.Nigelb said:
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.
If your party is taken over by people who hate you, and abuse you on a regular basis, it would be a very strange individual indeed who doesn’t eventually conclude that there is more to life.1 -
The next 24 hours plus will switch from conservative problems to the civil war about to break out in labour
Trust the media - they will go big time on this
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Sick of banging his head against a brick wall, now damaged goods maybe has time to do something else with his life. Enjpoy your retirement you at last don’t have to defend the indefensible that is corbyn.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yadda yadda 35 years in politics, time for a new challenge.viewcode said:
Good grief. Why?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
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Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?0
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Yep. There is, however, an even shorter word than they are using to him. It's three-letters and it's 'but.'Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
But ... but ... but ...
Tom Watson will be forever tarnished by the appalling way in which he promulgated the false lies of Carl Beech.
So whatever venom is spat from the far left, the one from the centre is far more deadly.0 -
Ah, but there's the thing - the Tories and Labour are chaotic and frequently incompetent, but they are not actually in meltdown. Their polling is down on 2017, but it's still either pretty strong or has been moving in the right direction since the GE was called.Fenman said:
Tories and Labour in meltdown. How many seats will the Lib Dems win?kle4 said:
Open the debate and then shut it again - it happening is proof of the direction being pretty firm.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Speaking from personal experience, dont ever try grating horseradish. My eyes melted and fell out. I awoke having been in a coma for 4 days. And the only word I could say for six months was help.AlastairMeeks said:2 -
It's a great big gift to the Tories. One they did NOT get in 2017.Big_G_NorthWales said:The next 24 hours plus will switch from conservative problems to the civil war about to break out in labour
Trust the media - they will go big time on this
Perhaps Boris is a lucky general.0 -
Got to the root of the matter, though.ydoethur said:
I don’t think she had any relish for it.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Jeremy Corbyn made a subtly cutting observation in that passage.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Equally, let us not forget there are many very good reasons why people hated him.Nigelb said:
Of course.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
To be fair, that must be a major factor. Working in this environment must be hellish.Nigelb said:
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.
If your party is taken over by people who hate you, and abuse you on a regular basis, it would be a very strange individual indeed who doesn’t eventually conclude that there is more to life.0 -
Have I got time to wash up the dinner plates before the next big story?2
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Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
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Oh lawks, I forgot Galloway had thrown his trilby into the ring. That should hoover up a large percentage of the zoomer vote.kle4 said:I suppose no need for Harvey Proctor to stand in West Brom now then. All to play for George Galloway? Let's hope not!
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Ok, I admit it, I do find that kind of detail a little charming. A bit more personal than the usual twaddle.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I've got no beef with that.ydoethur said:
I don’t think she had any relish for it.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
It won’t, it will only register in the normally Tory toilet paper rags. There is no way this will result in civil war there is nobody left with any balls to fight the left.Big_G_NorthWales said:The next 24 hours plus will switch from conservative problems to the civil war about to break out in labour
Trust the media - they will go big time on this0 -
Are you taking a steak in this contest?SandyRentool said:
I've got no beef with that.ydoethur said:
I don’t think she had any relish for it.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
True.ydoethur said:
Equally, let us not forget there are many very good reasons why people hated him.Nigelb said:
Of course.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
To be fair, that must be a major factor. Working in this environment must be hellish.Nigelb said:
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.
If your party is taken over by people who hate you, and abuse you on a regular basis, it would be a very strange individual indeed who doesn’t eventually conclude that there is more to life.
I’m not a fan, and he is someone who has made plenty of mistakes, some egregious - but it doesn’t invalidate the point.
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Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.1
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It will be interesting who they pick, should it come to it. Acolytes or grandee?ydoethur said:This also means that should Corbyn lose and resign, the Labour Party will have no leader.
Which means I think that the NEC would appoint a caretaker.
Is this how Macdonnell wins the prize?
Of course Corbyn could initiate an election and stand down when it has new leader. Most likely?0 -
How many votes do you think Watson was worth?Byronic said:
It's a great big gift to the Tories. One they did NOT get in 2017.Big_G_NorthWales said:The next 24 hours plus will switch from conservative problems to the civil war about to break out in labour
Trust the media - they will go big time on this
Perhaps Boris is a lucky general.0 -
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
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Also true, but he helped to make it hellish. As with Morgan, I find myself struggling to sympathise with someone who takes so much abuse when I think about how much they dished out in the first place.Nigelb said:
True.ydoethur said:
Equally, let us not forget there are many very good reasons why people hated him.Nigelb said:
Of course.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
To be fair, that must be a major factor. Working in this environment must be hellish.Nigelb said:
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.
If your party is taken over by people who hate you, and abuse you on a regular basis, it would be a very strange individual indeed who doesn’t eventually conclude that there is more to life.
I’m not a fan, and he is someone who has made plenty of mistakes, some egregious - but it doesn’t invalidate the point.0 -
There may be bots, but lots of them are not bots. The first three I checked were real.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
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Is “I hope the horseradish plants I gave you thrive” one of those subtly obscure Chinese curses ?AlastairMeeks said:
Jeremy Corbyn made a subtly cutting observation in that passage.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:
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That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
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Out of all the gaffs and mis steps this week, Boris promise of hundreds of billions of pounds brexit bonus is easily the worse. Opposition parties can base their attacks around that for weeks to come.nichomar said:
What the fuck are you smoking, what brexit bonus that must be the ultimate troll post that I have just fallen foregg said:caught up with all the pictures to the events you have kindly been describing on PB for us in work we don’t get to see. Thank you. 👍🏻
Absolutely loved the grand and excited limo cam as Boris went to the palace. Very Trump. Exactly what Winston would have done if alive today.
Then in downing street, what he did promise us is probably the most key pitch in this whole election, hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we have got Brexit done.
What daft voter would turn money like that down? Look what good the hundreds of billions of Brexit bonus can do in this country, for people on the breadline, in communities the elites in parliament have forgotten about, for health service, for benefits, people with dementia where care chews up all their life savings, for people going hungry, we are talking hundreds of billions of pounds Boris has lined up, and we can do all that good work and all of us have tax cuts too and be richer in our pockets. Its insane there are actual people blocking Brexit when our country can be hundreds of billions of pounds richer.
He stood there, he launched his campaign with this promise. What sort of person wouldn’t take Boris up on such a promise?
Game set match Before the archaic Stalinist has even creaked out of bed ? 🆘
Prove me wrong. Is there a brexiteer or Tory on this site who would say to him, yes say that, it won’t come to bite you on the bum. 🙂0 -
Can he do that under the current rules? I thought they had changed. But IANAE on Labour leadership rules and I could easily be wrong.egg said:
It will be interesting who they pick, should it come to it. Acolytes or grandee?ydoethur said:This also means that should Corbyn lose and resign, the Labour Party will have no leader.
Which means I think that the NEC would appoint a caretaker.
Is this how Macdonnell wins the prize?
Of course Corbyn could initiate an election and stand down when it has new leader. Most likely?0 -
Byronic said:
Is that such a MASSIVE surprise? The pedogate thing is looming. This way he ducks the worst scrutiny, and gets to damage Corbyn and McDonnell, who he hates.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Tom Watson's position was not sustainable...and I doubt he wanted the boredom of the backbench fuckaroundittery......0 -
Ouch, that one is a stinger.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
We usually have a better class of imposter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
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One can have some sympathy for even those one holds in a degree of contempt.ydoethur said:
Also true, but he helped to make it hellish. As with Morgan, I find myself struggling to sympathise with someone who takes so much abuse when I think about how much they dished out in the first place.Nigelb said:
True.ydoethur said:
Equally, let us not forget there are many very good reasons why people hated him.Nigelb said:
Of course.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
To be fair, that must be a major factor. Working in this environment must be hellish.Nigelb said:
That’s the Heidi Allen line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I suspect the truth is rather that there is only so much shit any given individual can take.
If your party is taken over by people who hate you, and abuse you on a regular basis, it would be a very strange individual indeed who doesn’t eventually conclude that there is more to life.
I’m not a fan, and he is someone who has made plenty of mistakes, some egregious - but it doesn’t invalidate the point.
And in any event, the point is a general one.0 -
A special plea from a header writer. I’ve completed my draft on the Lib Dems and I’ve already had to redraft it once courtesy of Survation. Could none of their candidates do anything rash before it is published? Ta.4
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Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. In fact, if the news goes big on this, it might actually be helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
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Yep, treat with caution, but would be very interesting if some reasonable incumbents exit, and have to be replaced by Jared O'Mara/Zarah Sultana type frothers.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
Labour are very hard up for candidates in Scotland particularly, and were struggling to get someone to stand in Stirling - they've had to draft a university student in.0 -
No, you misread. Tom Watson's going is big but not a game-changer, but the comment (to which I was replying) suggested that a whole string of moderates might be leaving Labour in the next few days.KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations, and one or two big names (Cooper?) to entirely derail the Labour campaign, and hand the election to Boris.
If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.1 -
Have just watched the clips of Cleverly contradict himself over the fake video then get empty chaired on Sky. The resignations of Cairns and Watson. And Zahawi sit there with a straight face on Andrew Neill saying he doesn't know if Corbyn would have rich people shot.
I bloody love politics1 -
0
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Yes, we’re already in the process of ignoring the current excellent effort.AlastairMeeks said:A special plea from a header writer. I’ve completed my draft on the Lib Dems and I’ve already had to redraft it once courtesy of Survation. Could none of their candidates do anything rash before it is published? Ta.
I have my fingers crossed for you.1 -
I agree. It probably means that one is less under threat now.Richard_Tyndall said:
Watson had an 8,000 majority. Seems a bit steep for the Tories to take.HYUFD said:
Tory gain West Bromwich Eastydoethur said:
Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1192169894479122433
It might even be Tom’s pick, he may have groomed somebody for the job.0 -
Twitter
Don't be surprised if the dissolution honours list includes Lord Watson...0 -
Maybe he hopes they thrive Triffid-style?Nigelb said:
Is “I hope the horseradish plants I gave you thrive” one of those subtly obscure Chinese curses ?AlastairMeeks said:
Jeremy Corbyn made a subtly cutting observation in that passage.Noo said:
She could have mustered a pun in that tweet.AlastairMeeks said:
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It can only benefit one party and it won’t be Johnson or corbynByronic said:
No, you misread. Tom Watson's going is big but not a game-changer, but the comment (to which I was replying) suggested that a whole string of moderates might be leaving Labour in the next few days.KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations, and one or two big names (Cooper?) to entirely derail the Labour campaign, and hand the election to Boris.
If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.1 -
Probably me being blind, but I can't see that actual passage in the actual letter.kle4 said:
Ok, I admit it, I do find that kind of detail a little charming. A bit more personal than the usual twaddle.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I was parodied for a time on Guido's site by some imposter.....williamglenn said:
We usually have a better class of imposter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
Byronic is doing his level best to parady Sean Thomas...he's gone to such lengths he usually pitches up at the same times, uses the same vernacular, occasionally veers off into leeriness....he's a very fucking good imposter indeed......0 -
If his own MPs walk away because they don't believe in him then why should the rest of the country do so? It speaks to his fundamental weakness as a leader. Which is that he has none of the qualities of a leader at all.KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. In fact, if the news goes big on this, it might actually be helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
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The last two days the conservatives have been in the foothills of difficulty but Tom Watson has just taken it up Everest for labour1
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The Cleverly thing on Sky was atrocious. He wasn't even booked to appear and Burley should be in deep trouble for her nasty little episode.RochdalePioneers said:Have just watched the clips of Cleverly contradict himself over the fake video then get empty chaired on Sky. The resignations of Cairns and Watson. And Zahawi sit there with a straight face on Andrew Neill saying he doesn't know if Corbyn would have rich people shot.
I bloody love politics0 -
If they really wanted to screw Corbyn, the guaranteed way would be to submit nomination papers and then withdraw them just before the deadline of 4pm on Thursday 14th November.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
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We should remember that the CLP recently gave Watson a very strong endorsement. It isn't overrun with Momentum entryists.egg said:
I agree. It probably means that one is less under threat now.Richard_Tyndall said:
Watson had an 8,000 majority. Seems a bit steep for the Tories to take.HYUFD said:
Tory gain West Bromwich Eastydoethur said:
Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1192169894479122433
It might even be Tom’s pick, he may have groomed somebody for the job.0 -
Actually, does that matter now? Will a candidate be imposed by the NEC?SandyRentool said:
We should remember that the CLP recently gave Watson a very strong endorsement. It isn't overrun with Momentum entryists.egg said:
I agree. It probably means that one is less under threat now.Richard_Tyndall said:
Watson had an 8,000 majority. Seems a bit steep for the Tories to take.HYUFD said:
Tory gain West Bromwich Eastydoethur said:
Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1192169894479122433
It might even be Tom’s pick, he may have groomed somebody for the job.0 -
There is talk she has been referred to OfcomRichard_Tyndall said:
The Cleverly thing on Sky was atrocious. He wasn't even booked to appear and Burley should be in deep trouble for her nasty little episode.RochdalePioneers said:Have just watched the clips of Cleverly contradict himself over the fake video then get empty chaired on Sky. The resignations of Cairns and Watson. And Zahawi sit there with a straight face on Andrew Neill saying he doesn't know if Corbyn would have rich people shot.
I bloody love politics1 -
I don’t think so. Seant was a lot more drunk and a lot less coherent than Byronic imo.tyson said:
I was parodied for a time on Guido's site by some imposter.....williamglenn said:
We usually have a better class of imposter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
Byronic is doing his level best to parady Sean Thomas...he's gone to such lengths he usually pitches up at the same times, uses the same vernacular, occasionally veers off into leeriness....he's a very fucking good imposter indeed......
I like Byronic, Sean was just drunken incoherent ranting mostly. Not a miss at all.0 -
It isn't really though. If they were resigning whilst MPs then it's a different story. They're not standing again rather than resignations: as of today they are no longer MPs.Byronic said:KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn as they glide away.
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The public will hardly notice which of these people have gone and which have stayed, and most of Labour's vote are reflexive/tribal/robotic voters anyway.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
Regardless of resignations and retirements, Labour's polling averages should continue to head northwards for some time to come.0 -
Twice - also an 18% Con > LD swing in Wokingham released todayAlastairMeeks said:A special plea from a header writer. I’ve completed my draft on the Lib Dems and I’ve already had to redraft it once courtesy of Survation. Could none of their candidates do anything rash before it is published? Ta.
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Is Farage replacing them all as they drop out?Floater said:Another brexit party candidate steps aside
https://order-order.com/2019/11/06/truro-falmouth-brexit-party-steps-avoid-splitting-leave-vote/0 -
Indeed, some are perfect models.williamglenn said:
We usually have a better class of imposter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
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Jesus...comrade..the worst penalty I have ever seen0
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I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.Mysticrose said:
It isn't really though. If they were resigning whilst MPs then it's a different story. They're not standing again rather than resignations: as of today they are no longer MPs.Byronic said:KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.0 -
Tomorrow's headlines as of an hour ago: JRM and Bridgen are shits, Cleverly and Zaharwi hammered by Kay and Brillo, doctored video, Welsh Sec quits because rapey cover-up, Tories In Meltdown.
Tomorrow's headlines now: Watson quits; here's why.0 -
Those people holding up the 20,000 New Police Officers placards need a metaphorical clip round the earhole.HYUFD said:
Leave the EU with a free trade deal and little threat to Unionrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192160424806027264
Unleash Britain's potential?
You are having laugh Tories. Leave the world's largest free market (which your heroine was instrumental in setting up) and probably wreck the union of Britain in the process.0 -
There cannot have been such a rollercoaster election in modern times
This forum is so difficult to keep up with
So many engaged
Let us just try to keep it at this very good level of discussion.
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They don't really want to give Corbyn excuses for a poor election result.Wulfrun_Phil said:
If they really wanted to screw Corbyn, the guaranteed way would be to submit nomination papers and then withdraw them just before the deadline of 4pm on Thursday 14th November.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
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Indeed. There have been so many resignations across the parties, and comings and goings, in the past year or so that they no longer have cut-through. Ditto Cairns.Black_Rook said:
The public will hardly notice which of these people have gone and which have stayed, and most of Labour's vote are reflexive/tribal/robotic voters anyway.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
Regardless of resignations and retirements, Labour's polling averages should continue to head northwards for some time to come.0 -
Yes that's very astuteRichard_Tyndall said:
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.Mysticrose said:
It isn't really though. If they were resigning whilst MPs then it's a different story. They're not standing again rather than resignations: as of today they are no longer MPs.Byronic said:KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.0 -
Probably but they will eventually back the no deal 31/12/20 no deal that the ERG have been promised but keep quiet about until 13/12.Dadge said:
Is Farage replacing them all as they drop out?Floater said:Another brexit party candidate steps aside
https://order-order.com/2019/11/06/truro-falmouth-brexit-party-steps-avoid-splitting-leave-vote/0 -
I think it’s brilliant if ofcom choose to get to the bottom of it so we get to learn exactly what went on. Like they suggested they might not investigate though. Sky seemed certain he was supposed to sit in the chair, Cleverly claims that’s not true. Let’s hope ofcom investigate so blame can be settled. Without the investigation we will never learn the truth. 😕Big_G_NorthWales said:
There is talk she has been referred to OfcomRichard_Tyndall said:
The Cleverly thing on Sky was atrocious. He wasn't even booked to appear and Burley should be in deep trouble for her nasty little episode.RochdalePioneers said:Have just watched the clips of Cleverly contradict himself over the fake video then get empty chaired on Sky. The resignations of Cairns and Watson. And Zahawi sit there with a straight face on Andrew Neill saying he doesn't know if Corbyn would have rich people shot.
I bloody love politics0 -
Quite right the Deputy leader standing aside now is not a story at all, nope, nothing to see.Mysticrose said:
It isn't really though. If they were resigning whilst MPs then it's a different story. They're not standing again rather than resignations: as of today they are no longer MPs.Byronic said:KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn as they glide away.
All is good in the Labour party0 -
It's a flattering comparison, but I don't think I really match the great man himself, the King of PB, the one, the only, the brilliant, the witty and inimitable SeanT, Peace Be Upon Him.tyson said:
I was parodied for a time on Guido's site by some imposter.....williamglenn said:
We usually have a better class of imposter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not just Twitter, Noo. Even on PB we have come across the occasional imposter.Noo said:
Twitter's full of a bots purporting to be people they aren't. Don't pay any attention to it.Byronic said:Christ. Check the litany of abuse, scorn, contempt and foul-mouthed contumely heaped over the name of Tom Watson on Twitter. And all from fellow members of the Labour Party.
No wonder he's quit.
Not saying it's necessarily unrepresentative but caveat twittor
Wikipedia if you're after a few constituencies. If you're after all of them in one swoop, not sure about that.Alistair said:Does anyone have 2005 per constituency results?
Byronic is doing his level best to parady Sean Thomas...he's gone to such lengths he usually pitches up at the same times, uses the same vernacular, occasionally veers off into leeriness....he's a very fucking good imposter indeed......
He was truly a titan. The world seems a pinched and craven place without him. Almost bleached of life.4 -
Tom Watson is now free to tell us the truth about working with Corbyn, Milne and Murphy. There could be some interesting disclosures.0
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Of course. The art of politics is to tell lies confidently.egg said:
I still don’t think you are a camel with all those humps.camel said:off topic
Remainers vs. Leavers: Who are the most ardent?
From the YouGov / The Times / Sky Survey Results
Remainy Parties:
Lab: 36% of Remainers,9% of Leavers
Lib: 33% of Remainers, 3% of Leavers
SNP: 6% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Plaid: 1% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Green: 6% of remainers, 3% of Leavers
Total Remainy Parties: 83% of Remainers, 17% of Leavers
Brexity Parties:
Con: 17% of Remainers, 59% of Leavers
BXP: 0% of Remainers, 22% of Leavers
Total Brexity Parties: 17% of Remainers, 81% of Leavers
So there we have it: About 17% of both remainers and leavers are sufficiently unardent (inardent?) to vote for a party offering the opposite of what they voted for in 2016.
i) About 1% voted for other parties
ii) I have assumed that labour is a remainy party.
iii) I failed the stats module in my degree
I failed my biology CSE.
Did Boris really come out to the lectern and say he didn’t want an election?
Will he repeat that again?
Similarly the lie about having to have an election because of parliamentary intransigence, when the last thing parliament did was to pass the 2nd reading of the WAB.0 -
Yep. Labour have turned a PR disaster into a dead cat distraction from Boris's launch. Masterful.Richard_Tyndall said:
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.Mysticrose said:
It isn't really though. If they were resigning whilst MPs then it's a different story. They're not standing again rather than resignations: as of today they are no longer MPs.Byronic said:KentRising said:
Hmm, not sure. How many people beyond the Westminster bubble are thinking 'I might vote Labour but definitely won't if Watson leaves'? Not many. Most won't even know who he is. in acway, if the news goes big on this, it's helpful to Corbyn as it obscures Boris's campaign launch - which probably explains the timing.Byronic said:
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IFAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.0 -
BiG G - have you not noticed the Labour tribalists on here telling us all this is nothing.Big_G_NorthWales said:The last two days the conservatives have been in the foothills of difficulty but Tom Watson has just taken it up Everest for labour
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So about that dodgy start to the election for the Conservatives...ydoethur said:
Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1192169894479122433
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Looking forward to the Long-Bailey and Pidcock dream team in the next parliament.0
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Tom Watson took a very nice Selfie of me with Steve Coogan and Neil Coyle (Bermondsey) in 2015, so I've always had a soft spot for him.0
