politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A future history of Labour’s election in ten seats
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A future history of Labour’s election in ten seats
Labour will overtake the SNP within 12 months if @LabourRichard wins. Remember this tweet. https://t.co/pnrPdAoAwB
Comments
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Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Edit- It looks like a first by a landslide too!0 -
We’ve got that this time. It’s just that instead of new, radical parties we’ve got the old parties having gone completely batshit crazy.twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.0 -
Re Glasgow Central, I think Alison Thewliss has been one of the more quietly impressive SNP performers and I think she'll definitely be one benefitting from an incumbency bonus.0
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Andrew Neil tucks into an Andy MacDonald souffle to follow his Zadawi sandwich0
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Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.
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Definitely looking forward to Casino Royale "holding me responsible" after the GE3
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Perhaps Neil could interview every Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet member over consecutive nights.dyedwoolie said:Andrew Neil tucks into an Andy MacDonald souffle to follow his Zadawi sandwich
No one would be left unscathed.0 -
Boris about to go live on Sky0
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https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192160424806027264
Unleash Britain's potential?
You are having laugh Tories. Leave the world's largest free market (which your heroine was instrumental in setting up) and probably wreck the union of Britain in the process.
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On topic, Interesting list. Thanks Alistair.
I suppose there’s no chance Islington North could be vulnerable? No, I thought not *sighs heavily.*0 -
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.0 -
I agree 100% - The finest in the businessrottenborough said:
Perhaps Neil could interview every Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet member over consecutive nights.dyedwoolie said:Andrew Neil tucks into an Andy MacDonald souffle to follow his Zadawi sandwich
No one would be left unscathed.2 -
Father of the House is not even a formal title, Skinner's disdain for it seems like being a pouty child to me. I feel like Tories are really pumped for Bolsover.
Scotland looked dead to Labour last time but they recovered a bit, as the header notes seats like that are key.
Wales I think they have a good shot with people like Crabb. The Tories flatter to deceive there (unlike the MIdlands).0 -
He has a "moron list" and we're all on itStereotomy said:Definitely looking forward to Casino Royale "holding me responsible" after the GE
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That Aaron Bastani tweet is a classic of the 'crap predictions' genre. Scottish Political Twitter wheels it out regularly to laugh at it.
Lesley Laird is probably a gonner in Kirkcaldy, but a couple of the seats they hold in Scotland are ultra marginal, so anything could happen if current voter volatility is anything to go by.
Still feel that Ian Murray is likely to be last man standing once again.0 -
I wonder if the egregious Dr Peters is regretting telling people they should ‘remember this Tweet?’kle4 said:Father of the House is not even a formal title, Skinner's disdain for it seems like being a pouty child to me. I feel like Tories are really pumped for Bolsover.
Scotland looked dead to Labour last time but they recovered a bit, as the header notes seats like that are key.
Wales I think they have a good shot with people like Crabb. The Tories flatter to deceive there (unlike the MIdlands).0 -
Yes, if all XR want is Green policies or even radical societal change, if enough want that one of the bigger parties will go for it. Not sure if the Greens will be th receptical, all the parties are much greener than they used to be and the Greens are not really any more likely to get more than 1-2 seats at best.Nigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.0 -
Could have been worse. At least he didn’t talk about shattering cyclical paradigms.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:That Aaron Bastani tweet is a classic of the 'crap predictions' genre. Scottish Political Twitter wheels it out regularly to laugh at it.
Lesley Laird is probably a gonner in Kirkcaldy, but a couple of the seats they hold in Scotland are ultra marginal, so anything could happen if current voter volatility is anything to go by.
Still feel that Ian Murray is likely to be last man standing once again.1 -
On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.0
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Is there any evidence that they are?EPG said:On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.
Until then, the question isn’t meaningful.0 -
Too early to call it clear evidence that is the direction, but if stays that way much longer it looks pretty possible. I do think they'll get up to around 30 seats though.EPG said:On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.
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^^^^^^^^^nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.
cutting political satire KLAXON0 -
Time to go to anything else as I don’t want to bring my dinner upBig_G_NorthWales said:Boris about to go live on Sky
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Be honest, don't you feel that all 3 main political parties are full of "gammons" (that's a really wanky turn of phrase, by the way)?nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.
What feels good about any of them? Nothing, that's what. Old and stale. People only vote for them because they are pretty much all we have. One good thing about Brexit is the complete shitshow that it has turned into has shown up the political parties for what they are-crap, out of touch and facing crises of their own making.
Maybe we need a few more years of political chaos to finish them off. It'll probably be better for the country in the long run.0 -
He's a baw hair away from offering to meet up with folk in pub car parks.Stereotomy said:Definitely looking forward to Casino Royale "holding me responsible" after the GE
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You seem to have a beef both with our major parties and the language used to describe them.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Be honest, don't you feel that all 3 main political parties are full of "gammons" (that's a really wanky turn of phrase, by the way)?nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.0 -
Is there any evidence that recent trends in polling can be reliably projected forwards? Serious question by the way. I don't think you can draw a line on a graph and say "here's where will be in a month" without it being basically a total guess.EPG said:On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.
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You're bovine a laff, ain't ya?ydoethur said:
You seem to have a beef both with our major parties and the language used to describe them.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Be honest, don't you feel that all 3 main political parties are full of "gammons" (that's a really wanky turn of phrase, by the way)?nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.0 -
Another standing down by TBP
BREAKING Truro & Falmouth Brexit Party Steps Down to Avoid Splitting Leave Vote https://t.co/WODAST80r4 https://t.co/6Tl486rY2x0 -
Surely ewe can’t have thought that was a good pun? It ducks he main point.twistedfirestopper3 said:
You're bovine a laff, ain't ya?ydoethur said:
You seem to have a beef both with our major parties and the language used to describe them.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Be honest, don't you feel that all 3 main political parties are full of "gammons" (that's a really wanky turn of phrase, by the way)?nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.0 -
Not yet, but if you want to put up some dosh that says they are you'll have no shortage of takers.EPG said:On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.
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Really interesting thread by @lewis_goodall on Workington. It's worth reading all 10 observations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192163164701560833?s=20
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I believe it, but I detest the idea of party bloodlines being the reason somewhere votes a certain way, even metaphorically.Mysticrose said:Really interesting thread by @lewis_goodall on Workington. It's worth reading all 10 observations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192163164701560833?s=200 -
On a roll tonight, aren't you?nichomar said:
Time to go to anything else as I don’t want to bring my dinner upBig_G_NorthWales said:Boris about to go live on Sky
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Lewes Goodall has strong labour credentials and his reporting needs to be seen in that lightMysticrose said:Really interesting thread by @lewis_goodall on Workington. It's worth reading all 10 observations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192163164701560833?s=201 -
Is Skinner definitely standing? Wiki seems to think he is.0
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On current polls (and the complete lack of a recent Scotland only poll is making me wonder if we should all chip together to commission one) suggests that indeed only Murray survives. But the possibility of Unionist tactical voting is always there to save Labour in these ultra marginals.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:That Aaron Bastani tweet is a classic of the 'crap predictions' genre. Scottish Political Twitter wheels it out regularly to laugh at it.
Lesley Laird is probably a gonner in Kirkcaldy, but a couple of the seats they hold in Scotland are ultra marginal, so anything could happen if current voter volatility is anything to go by.
Still feel that Ian Murray is likely to be last man standing once again.
The SNP vote is basically static, they take these swathes of seats on the incumbent receeding. But tactical voting could keep the incumbent in place even as the SLab national vote plummets.0 -
People are looking at this election through the lenses of the last election far too much.Mysticrose said:Really interesting thread by @lewis_goodall on Workington. It's worth reading all 10 observations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192163164701560833?s=200 -
It may be but what will emerge from the chaos? I see my generation, the 60+ people who have, in many ways for the fortunate have had it on a plate having no regard for who comes after them, even if it’s their own family. They are the entitled ‘I know best’ generation unable to appreciate that that they grew up in the ‘middle class elite’ with jobs for life, company pensions and the ability to own property. They are destroying the future by their selfishness and small mindedness but will never have to pay the price or even see the results of their views.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Be honest, don't you feel that all 3 main political parties are full of "gammons" (that's a really wanky turn of phrase, by the way)?nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.
What feels good about any of them? Nothing, that's what. Old and stale. People only vote for them because they are pretty much all we have. One good thing about Brexit is the complete shitshow that it has turned into has shown up the political parties for what they are-crap, out of touch and facing crises of their own making.
Maybe we need a few more years of political chaos to finish them off. It'll probably be better for the country in the long run.1 -
Fighting or dogging?Theuniondivvie said:
He's a baw hair away from offering to meet up with folk in pub car parks.Stereotomy said:Definitely looking forward to Casino Royale "holding me responsible" after the GE
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Lewes Goodall is from a lot further south than WorkingtonBig_G_NorthWales said:
Lewes Goodall has strong labour credentials and his reporting needs to be seen in that lightMysticrose said:Really interesting thread by @lewis_goodall on Workington. It's worth reading all 10 observations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192163164701560833?s=200 -
caught up with all the pictures to the events you have kindly been describing on PB for us in work we don’t get to see. Thank you. 👍🏻
Absolutely loved the grand and excited limo cam as Boris went to the palace. Very Trump. Exactly what Winston would have done if alive today.
Then in downing street, what he did promise us is probably the most key pitch in this whole election, hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we have got Brexit done.
What daft voter would turn money like that down? Look what good the hundreds of billions of Brexit bonus can do in this country, for people on the breadline, in communities the elites in parliament have forgotten about, for health service, for benefits, people with dementia where care chews up all their life savings, for people going hungry, we are talking hundreds of billions of pounds Boris has lined up, and we can do all that good work and all of us have tax cuts too and be richer in our pockets. Its insane there are actual people blocking Brexit when our country can be hundreds of billions of pounds richer.
He stood there, he launched his campaign with this promise. What sort of person wouldn’t take Boris up on such a promise?
Game set match Before the archaic Stalinist has even creaked out of bed ? 🆘0 -
Ah. I see the left is threatening free speech at a university again
https://twitter.com/aldotcom/status/1192152133174468609?s=19
Oh, wait.0 -
It's a real danger, I think. On the other hand, the last election was only 2.5 years ago, and unlike in 2017 there was no earth-shatterimg referendum in between. So perhaps there are more reasons to think there will be similarities with the previous election than usual?nunu2 said:
People are looking at this election through the lenses of the last election far too much.Mysticrose said:Really interesting thread by @lewis_goodall on Workington. It's worth reading all 10 observations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192163164701560833?s=200 -
What the fuck are you smoking, what brexit bonus that must be the ultimate troll post that I have just fallen foregg said:caught up with all the pictures to the events you have kindly been describing on PB for us in work we don’t get to see. Thank you. 👍🏻
Absolutely loved the grand and excited limo cam as Boris went to the palace. Very Trump. Exactly what Winston would have done if alive today.
Then in downing street, what he did promise us is probably the most key pitch in this whole election, hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we have got Brexit done.
What daft voter would turn money like that down? Look what good the hundreds of billions of Brexit bonus can do in this country, for people on the breadline, in communities the elites in parliament have forgotten about, for health service, for benefits, people with dementia where care chews up all their life savings, for people going hungry, we are talking hundreds of billions of pounds Boris has lined up, and we can do all that good work and all of us have tax cuts too and be richer in our pockets. Its insane there are actual people blocking Brexit when our country can be hundreds of billions of pounds richer.
He stood there, he launched his campaign with this promise. What sort of person wouldn’t take Boris up on such a promise?
Game set match Before the archaic Stalinist has even creaked out of bed ? 🆘1 -
I think both Lab and LD should go heavy on the Environment. The youngsters are keen, and there seem to be plenty my age and older at XR demonstrations too. Tories are weak and split on the issue.twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Edit- It looks like a first by a landslide too!
I would be interested on your thoughts on the Grenfell fire disaster too.1 -
No, it's not possible or at least unwise. I think you can sometimes do it on the way up - I am pretty sure professional marketers will tell you that a bandwagon effect does exist. You had it with Corbyn or Trudeau where it was clear that they were going to out-perform. But I think it is impossible on the way down. I meant compared to every previous election. The same thing seems to be happening now. I was just checking if I had missed anything to cause a polling drop before I bet.Noo said:
Is there any evidence that recent trends in polling can be reliably projected forwards? Serious question by the way. I don't think you can draw a line on a graph and say "here's where will be in a month" without it being basically a total guess.EPG said:On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.
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Who knows what will rise from the chaos? Brexit is a sideshow in the grand scheme of things. The planet faces huge challenges over the next decades. It ain't gonna be saved by the likes of Johnson, Corbyn or Swinson, let alone by the likes of Trump, Macron and Xi Jinping. XR and other radical movements like it will gain traction as us oldies die off. The future belongs to my lads, let them shape it.nichomar said:
It may be but what will emerge from the chaos? I see my generation, the 60+ people who have, in many ways for the fortunate have had it on a plate having no regard for who comes after them, even if it’s their own family. They are the entitled ‘I know best’ generation unable to appreciate that that they grew up in the ‘middle class elite’ with jobs for life, company pensions and the ability to own property. They are destroying the future by their selfishness and small mindedness but will never have to pay the price or even see the results of their views.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Be honest, don't you feel that all 3 main political parties are full of "gammons" (that's a really wanky turn of phrase, by the way)?nichomar said:
No they morphed into gammonsNigelb said:
Or parties will adopt new policies,twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Don’t forget the dinosaurs outlasted us by several hundred million years - and are still with us.
What feels good about any of them? Nothing, that's what. Old and stale. People only vote for them because they are pretty much all we have. One good thing about Brexit is the complete shitshow that it has turned into has shown up the political parties for what they are-crap, out of touch and facing crises of their own making.
Maybe we need a few more years of political chaos to finish them off. It'll probably be better for the country in the long run.
Actually, my lads will mostly be drinking beer, advocating a 3 day week so they can play more Modern Warfare and advocating the use of skateboards as public transport, so perhaps some other kids can step up.0 -
It's a tough one to call. The Euros saw Lab in fifth nationally (didn't they finish sixth behind the Greens in Edinburgh?).Alistair said:
On current polls (and the complete lack of a recent Scotland only poll is making me wonder if we should all chip together to commission one) suggests that indeed only Murray survives. But the possibility of Unionist tactical voting is always there to save Labour in these ultra marginals.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:That Aaron Bastani tweet is a classic of the 'crap predictions' genre. Scottish Political Twitter wheels it out regularly to laugh at it.
Lesley Laird is probably a gonner in Kirkcaldy, but a couple of the seats they hold in Scotland are ultra marginal, so anything could happen if current voter volatility is anything to go by.
Still feel that Ian Murray is likely to be last man standing once again.
The SNP vote is basically static, they take these swathes of seats on the incumbent receeding. But tactical voting could keep the incumbent in place even as the SLab national vote plummets.
They are squabbling over a tiny slice of the vote now, with a poor position on Brexit in a Remain voting country, whilst alienating potentially indy curious voters.
But tactical voting is huge in Scotland, and all I can safely predict is a highly entertaining night for the armchair psephologists.0 -
You saying I running through a field of wheat in my budgie smugglers trolling Boris like he done trolling May?nichomar said:
What the fuck are you smoking, what brexit bonus that must be the ultimate troll post that I have just fallen foregg said:caught up with all the pictures to the events you have kindly been describing on PB for us in work we don’t get to see. Thank you. 👍🏻
Absolutely loved the grand and excited limo cam as Boris went to the palace. Very Trump. Exactly what Winston would have done if alive today.
Then in downing street, what he did promise us is probably the most key pitch in this whole election, hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we have got Brexit done.
What daft voter would turn money like that down? Look what good the hundreds of billions of Brexit bonus can do in this country, for people on the breadline, in communities the elites in parliament have forgotten about, for health service, for benefits, people with dementia where care chews up all their life savings, for people going hungry, we are talking hundreds of billions of pounds Boris has lined up, and we can do all that good work and all of us have tax cuts too and be richer in our pockets. Its insane there are actual people blocking Brexit when our country can be hundreds of billions of pounds richer.
He stood there, he launched his campaign with this promise. What sort of person wouldn’t take Boris up on such a promise?
Game set match Before the archaic Stalinist has even creaked out of bed ? 🆘
Boris said it. Boris launched his campaign saying it. Did he not?0 -
TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!0
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Innovative zero carbon solution?twistedfirestopper3 said:advocating the use of skateboards as public transport.
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Labour have already given up on Wimbledon and are diverting resource elsewhere. I would put LD chances here at least as good as Portsmouth or Leeds NW, both of which I think are much tougher for them than indicated by the markets.0
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Tom Watson gone0
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Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Preseli sounds like it should be a shoo-in for the Bus Pass Elvis Party.
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The Brexit bonus Northern Ireland is getting by staying in the EU Customs Union.nichomar said:
What the fuck are you smoking, what brexit bonus that must be the ultimate troll post that I have just fallen foregg said:caught up with all the pictures to the events you have kindly been describing on PB for us in work we don’t get to see. Thank you. 👍🏻
Absolutely loved the grand and excited limo cam as Boris went to the palace. Very Trump. Exactly what Winston would have done if alive today.
Then in downing street, what he did promise us is probably the most key pitch in this whole election, hundreds of billions of pounds to flow into the country once we have got Brexit done.
What daft voter would turn money like that down? Look what good the hundreds of billions of Brexit bonus can do in this country, for people on the breadline, in communities the elites in parliament have forgotten about, for health service, for benefits, people with dementia where care chews up all their life savings, for people going hungry, we are talking hundreds of billions of pounds Boris has lined up, and we can do all that good work and all of us have tax cuts too and be richer in our pockets. Its insane there are actual people blocking Brexit when our country can be hundreds of billions of pounds richer.
He stood there, he launched his campaign with this promise. What sort of person wouldn’t take Boris up on such a promise?
Game set match Before the archaic Stalinist has even creaked out of bed ? 🆘
Oh wait...0 -
shit the bed Watson isn't standing0
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Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/11921698944791224330 -
Agreed. We’re at the stage of the campaign where anything is possible.ydoethur said:
Is there any evidence that they are?EPG said:On betting. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dems are not heading for a tactical squeeze and vote share collapse to maybe 10%. Even if they win 20 seats, that seems to be the direction of motion over the last week.
Until then, the question isn’t meaningful.
There is no evidence of very much at all, for now.
0 -
off topic
Remainers vs. Leavers: Who are the most ardent?
From the YouGov / The Times / Sky Survey Results
Remainy Parties:
Lab: 36% of Remainers,9% of Leavers
Lib: 33% of Remainers, 3% of Leavers
SNP: 6% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Plaid: 1% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Green: 6% of remainers, 3% of Leavers
Total Remainy Parties: 83% of Remainers, 17% of Leavers
Brexity Parties:
Con: 17% of Remainers, 59% of Leavers
BXP: 0% of Remainers, 22% of Leavers
Total Brexity Parties: 17% of Remainers, 81% of Leavers
So there we have it: About 17% of both remainers and leavers are sufficiently unardent (inardent?) to vote for a party offering the opposite of what they voted for in 2016.
i) About 1% voted for other parties
ii) I have assumed that labour is a remainy party.
iii) I failed the stats module in my degree1 -
Today feels like about a year's worth of politics.
Will we ever get back to the days when everything isn't turned up to eleventy stupid?1 -
So itseemsAramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
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If the polls continue to narrow, I predict this will happen across the country. Farage and the BXP will be hard pressed by their own angry voters. They might not be able to hold the line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another standing down by TBP
BREAKING Truro & Falmouth Brexit Party Steps Down to Avoid Splitting Leave Vote https://t.co/WODAST80r4 https://t.co/6Tl486rY2x1 -
I very nearly wrote about West Bromwich East. Glad I didn’t now.1
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Good grief. Why?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
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Looking at those figures, I can only say.... and the Tories call Labour tribal ?camel said:off topic
Remainers vs. Leavers: Who are the most ardent?
From the YouGov / The Times / Sky Survey Results
Remainy Parties:
Lab: 36% of Remainers,9% of Leavers
Lib: 33% of Remainers, 3% of Leavers
SNP: 6% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Plaid: 1% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Green: 6% of remainers, 3% of Leavers
Total Remainy Parties: 83% of Remainers, 17% of Leavers
Brexity Parties:
Con: 17% of Remainers, 59% of Leavers
BXP: 0% of Remainers, 22% of Leavers
Total Brexity Parties: 17% of Remainers, 81% of Leavers
So there we have it: About 17% of both remainers and leavers are sufficiently unardent (inardent?) to vote for a party offering the opposite of what they voted for in 2016.
i) About 1% voted for other parties
ii) I have assumed that labour is a remainy party.
iii) I failed the stats module in my degree0 -
This also means that should Corbyn lose and resign, the Labour Party will have no leader.
Which means I think that the NEC would appoint a caretaker.
Is this how Macdonnell wins the prize?0 -
Tory gain West Bromwich Eastydoethur said:
Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/11921698944791224330 -
Great timing - thanks Tom!!!!!Big_G_NorthWales said:Tom Watson gone
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Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat0 -
I still don’t think you are a camel with all those humps.camel said:off topic
Remainers vs. Leavers: Who are the most ardent?
From the YouGov / The Times / Sky Survey Results
Remainy Parties:
Lab: 36% of Remainers,9% of Leavers
Lib: 33% of Remainers, 3% of Leavers
SNP: 6% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Plaid: 1% of Remainers, 1% of Leavers
Green: 6% of remainers, 3% of Leavers
Total Remainy Parties: 83% of Remainers, 17% of Leavers
Brexity Parties:
Con: 17% of Remainers, 59% of Leavers
BXP: 0% of Remainers, 22% of Leavers
Total Brexity Parties: 17% of Remainers, 81% of Leavers
So there we have it: About 17% of both remainers and leavers are sufficiently unardent (inardent?) to vote for a party offering the opposite of what they voted for in 2016.
i) About 1% voted for other parties
ii) I have assumed that labour is a remainy party.
iii) I failed the stats module in my degree
I failed my biology CSE.
Did Boris really come out to the lectern and say he didn’t want an election?
Will he repeat that again?1 -
Boris launches Conservative campaign with a Trump style rally in Birmingham0
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Leave the EU with a free trade deal and little threat to Unionrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192160424806027264
Unleash Britain's potential?
You are having laugh Tories. Leave the world's largest free market (which your heroine was instrumental in setting up) and probably wreck the union of Britain in the process.0 -
Rees mogg, bridgen and cairns send their thanks Tom1
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Another brexit party candidate steps aside
https://order-order.com/2019/11/06/truro-falmouth-brexit-party-steps-avoid-splitting-leave-vote/0 -
It’s come to quite something when Conservatives can post without intended irony about the moderates really having lost the party.ydoethur said:3 -
I think Farage is beginning to lose many in his partyByronic said:
If the polls continue to narrow, I predict this will happen across the country. Farage and the BXP will be hard pressed by their own angry voters. They might not be able to hold the line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another standing down by TBP
BREAKING Truro & Falmouth Brexit Party Steps Down to Avoid Splitting Leave Vote https://t.co/WODAST80r4 https://t.co/6Tl486rY2x0 -
Bozo has just given a speech - and Sky are talking about Tom Watson.0
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I am sorry about this. Whilst he made mistakes in his exposures of child abuse he was the only one prepared to put his head over the parapet and without him we would not know about Thatcher being told about Morrison and then promoting him, or about ex-Chief Constable Mick Creedon being ordered not to arrest Janner and ex-DCI Clive Driscoll being removed from the Islington investigation when he wanted to interview Paul Boateng.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Fantastic Article Alastair.
Whoever wins Portsmouth South has had a good election. Labour hold for value, surely?0 -
Is that such a MASSIVE surprise? The pedogate thing is looming. This way he ducks the worst scrutiny, and gets to damage Corbyn and McDonnell, who he hates.TheScreamingEagles said:Wow
Tom Watson to quit as Labour deputy leader and stand down as MP
Exclusive: move will reopen debate about party’s direction under Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/06/tom-watson-to-quit-as-labour-deputy-leader-and-stand-down-as-mp?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0 -
Negotiated in 11 months? Yeah right.HYUFD said:
Leave the EU with a free trade deal and little threat to Unionrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192160424806027264
Unleash Britain's potential?
You are having laugh Tories. Leave the world's largest free market (which your heroine was instrumental in setting up) and probably wreck the union of Britain in the process.0 -
Yadda yadda 35 years in politics, time for a new challenge.viewcode said:
Good grief. Why?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
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No they will quietly withdraw having been promised WTO brexit by 31/12/20Byronic said:
If the polls continue to narrow, I predict this will happen across the country. Farage and the BXP will be hard pressed by their own angry voters. They might not be able to hold the line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another standing down by TBP
BREAKING Truro & Falmouth Brexit Party Steps Down to Avoid Splitting Leave Vote https://t.co/WODAST80r4 https://t.co/6Tl486rY2x0 -
If Labour are scared of losing WBE they are either completely crazy or in epochal trouble. One of the first signs of hubris in the May campaign was the belief that it was in play.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watson going is huge
Has he seen the polling in his seat
I think it’s more likely there was some manoeuvring behind the scenes within Labour. That tweet can be read in a number of ways - e.g. ‘I’ll campaign for brilliant Labour candidates, which excludes all the momentum nutters and racists.’0 -
I like to think Watson's staff were sitting in front of Sky News - 'Right, he's started speaking' *hits send*SandyRentool said:Bozo has just given a speech - and Sky are talking about Tom Watson.
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Maybe nothing will happen for the next five weeks?0
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No by 30/6 when extend needs to be implementedOnlyLivingBoy said:
Negotiated in 11 months? Yeah right.HYUFD said:
Leave the EU with a free trade deal and little threat to Unionrottenborough said:https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192160424806027264
Unleash Britain's potential?
You are having laugh Tories. Leave the world's largest free market (which your heroine was instrumental in setting up) and probably wreck the union of Britain in the process.0 -
Mirror images.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s come to quite something when Conservatives can post without intended irony about the moderates really having lost the party.ydoethur said:0 -
Half an hour is a long time in politics.AlastairMeeks said:I very nearly wrote about West Bromwich East. Glad I didn’t now.
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How long until the blame game starts for Labour?0
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Dead cats being dead catted. The theme of the next few weeks.dyedwoolie said:Rees mogg, bridgen and cairns send their thanks Tom
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Environmental policies should not involve committing economic suicide by wasting billions each year on measures which will have no discernible benefit. If we decarbonise the whole UK it will make no difference whatsoever to the climate. Natural causes and other countries are the factors beyond our control. Why should we all go back to the dark ages just to make us feel less guilty??Foxy said:
I think both Lab and LD should go heavy on the Environment. The youngsters are keen, and there seem to be plenty my age and older at XR demonstrations too. Tories are weak and split on the issue.twistedfirestopper3 said:Bloody new thread!
It won't be at this GE but over the next few, I think we will begin to see a rise of far more radical parties. It won't be Left vs Right. The likes of the Tories ,Lib Dems and Labour will be going backwards. I'm going to predict that XR will become a political party, and the Greens will gain more traction. Young people are becoming more politically aware, Greta Thunberg has become a role model for the youn'g 'uns and there will be wave upon wave of them reaching voting age.
We're dinosaurs on PB, either got our head down eating grass or in petty squabbles with other raptors. That comet is on it's way, we just can't see it in the glare of the sun.
Edit- It looks like a first by a landslide too!
I would be interested on your thoughts on the Grenfell fire disaster too.0 -
Watson had an 8,000 majority. Seems a bit steep for the Tories to take.HYUFD said:
Tory gain West Bromwich Eastydoethur said:
Wow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:TOM WATSON HAS QUIT!
That is a major surprise.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/11921698944791224330 -
It is refreshing to see Farage be exposed for the charlatan he is.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think Farage is beginning to lose many in his partyByronic said:
If the polls continue to narrow, I predict this will happen across the country. Farage and the BXP will be hard pressed by their own angry voters. They might not be able to hold the line.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another standing down by TBP
BREAKING Truro & Falmouth Brexit Party Steps Down to Avoid Splitting Leave Vote https://t.co/WODAST80r4 https://t.co/6Tl486rY2x1
