We haven't yet seen remain tactical voting come to the fore. The key question that Labour remainers will need to pledge is "do you give your word to break your word and vote against your party to support remain".
Because remember that Labour policy. They will spend 3 months negotiating a Deal to Leave the European Union. Then they will hold a special conference where they will have a hand vote (never dodgy) to decide if they will back their deal or campaign against their deal. Whilst all this is going on you can guarantee the Chuckle Brothers (Gardiner & Burgon) will be on the telly contradicting everything optimistic remainers say.
I have a HUGE amount of sympathy for passionate Labour remainers like my MP Paul Williams. But ultimately I don't trust the party to deliver remain when its clear that the inner machine is doing all it can to deliver a leave deal. This is a Brexit election, it is all of a few days old, we have seen wild poll swings throughout this year as we saw wild swings in 2017 yet people are complacently insisting no more swings on THE issue.
My recollection (perhaps wrong) is you voted Leave.
Indeed, am a #remainernow like so many other suckers who feel stupid having voted the wrong way. In a general election when you vote the wrong way you get the opportunity the next time (sometimes not very long into the future) to change your mind. Yet Brexit rampers demanding a 2nd additional GE because people voted the wrong way last time deny a referendum because the 17.4m definitely didn't vote the wrong way and aren't allowed to change their mind and what's more they definitely haven't
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
They've just had the British national anthem from the rugby game at the end of the Today programme. Nice touch.
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
It would be appropriate for Wales, Scotland and any Commonwealth country to use God Save the Queen if they wish. I don't see why England shouldn't use it just because other teams have chosen not to.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Whilst he does appear well placed for the coming election - at the moment - he hasn't actually done anything yet. Under pressure he's taken a deal from the EU essentially the same as the one he resigned over, except that it takes a small first step towards the eventual unification of Ireland. He's fortunate that after the agony of Theresa a lot of people just want the whole thing to go away; whether he has the ability to sell and deliver what he has signed up to, time will tell.
True. But, he has got further than I thought he would. And I think he will win the election with a majority.
The fact that Johnson believes in nothing (other than the greater glory of Boris) is a help in dealing with a slippery concept like Brexit.
In political terms, Boris is very good, up until the point where something actually needs to be decided and done.
Fortunately for Boris (but not the rest of us), that point will be after midnight, Dec 12th 2019.
The Rugby commentators never explain why a penalty has been awarded for people who aren't experts in the game like me. I don't have a clue why a penalty was just awarded to South Africa.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Whilst he does appear well placed for the coming election - at the moment - he hasn't actually done anything yet. Under pressure he's taken a deal from the EU essentially the same as the one he resigned over, except that it takes a small first step towards the eventual unification of Ireland. He's fortunate that after the agony of Theresa a lot of people just want the whole thing to go away; whether he has the ability to sell and deliver what he has signed up to, time will tell.
The significance of Farage's move yesterday is that the Tories have to defend the Deal from both sides. That could keep it interesting. BoZo is not good at detail.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Nope, have to say I did not see him betraying the DUP so easily. I disagree on the ERG, though. The WA makes it much unlikely we see a final Brexit settlement close to the one they want.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
So we are looking at a generation of lib dem control then?
Once the UK breaks-up - as it will - I can see the LDs in power in England for quite a while, yes.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
They've just had the British national anthem from the rugby game at the end of the Today programme. Nice touch.
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
It would be appropriate for Wales, Scotland and any Commonwealth country to use God Save the Queen if they wish. I don't see why England shouldn't use it just because other teams have chosen not to.
The English anthem should be Jerusalem as it is at the Commonwealth Games.
God Save the Queen should be the royal anthem for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and Jamaica etc and the nations where the Queen is still Head of State and played when the Queen or a royal is in attendance.
Otherwise they should all have their own national anthems, including England
The Rugby commentators never explain why a penalty has been awarded for people who aren't experts in the game like me. I don't have a clue why a penalty was just awarded to South Africa.
Yes, some of the rules in the breakdown are not straightforward. The commentators are very poor at explaining them. Is it on any channel other than ITV1 also ?
The Rugby commentators never explain why a penalty has been awarded for people who aren't experts in the game like me. I don't have a clue why a penalty was just awarded to South Africa.
That's the reason that players don't argue with the ref. No one understands
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
Or alternatively: England - unlike the other British provinces in the World Cup - has the generosity and breadth of spirit to realise it's representing its country as well as its province. So on this occasion it sings its NATIONAL anthem.
Had Wales or Scotland made it to the final against England, it probably would have been appropriate to sing provincial anthems. They've failed so it's not.
PS NI doesn't field a team in international rugby.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
You snapped up the 5/1 Lads offered on 11-15 for the SCons I presume?
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
They've just had the British national anthem from the rugby game at the end of the Today programme. Nice touch.
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
Northern Irish anthem is GSTQ, isn’t it? Is when they play football anyway.
I agree with every one of David's points. Why then are the Conservatives not 30 points ahead?
The net satisfaction rating for the government is -55. That probably has something to do with it!
The government has been unsuccessful in trying to push forward a highly divisive policy. What is remarkable is not so much their own standing but the failure of the opposition to make any headway.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
England is certainly not a horrible place.
It doesn't look too bright out of the window right now. I'm staying indoors.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Whilst he does appear well placed for the coming election - at the moment - he hasn't actually done anything yet. Under pressure he's taken a deal from the EU essentially the same as the one he resigned over, except that it takes a small first step towards the eventual unification of Ireland. He's fortunate that after the agony of Theresa a lot of people just want the whole thing to go away; whether he has the ability to sell and deliver what he has signed up to, time will tell.
The significance of Farage's move yesterday is that the Tories have to defend the Deal from both sides. That could keep it interesting. BoZo is not good at detail.
I'm not sure what criticisms would have traction with Leave voters.
We've known for a while that Leave voters are prepared to lose Northern Ireland for Brexit, so criticising the Irish Sea border isn't going to faze them.
While the No Deal cliff edge at the end of 2020 worries Remain voters like me, it's a plus point in Withdrawal Agreement II for Leavers.
Farage talks about it being a treaty, and the money paid, but Northern Ireland (and citizen's rights) aside there are only temporary obligations as far as I'm aware.
Johnson also neutralises the not-a-normal-politician and lefties-really-hate-me advantages that Farage would have in establishing trustworthiness over any other Conservative politician for Leave voters.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Nope, have to say I did not see him betraying the DUP so easily. I disagree on the ERG, though. The WA makes it much unlikely we see a final Brexit settlement close to the one they want.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
Good luck to England this morning in the Rugby World Cup final. I am sad at Scots who want South Africa to win simply because they want England to lose.
Perhaps some people just like to support the underdogs, Tories obsession with Scots supposedly hating the English is pathetic and petty and shows them up for the dullards they are. Time to get a life.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
For Wales, I'd highlight the loss of Carwyn Jones as a serious problem for Labour, he is irretrievably damaged by the Sargeant Affair.
Mark Drakeford is a poor substitute.
Labour did especially well in Wales in 2017, retaking 3 seats. The most astonishing to me was the running of Crabb so close in Presell Pembrokeshire, (a pretty affluent constituency for Wales).
If the Workington polling is right, then Labour losses in Wales could run into 2 digits.
There will be another Welsh barometer poll out soon.
In the most recent one, Roger Awan-Scully noted that using UNS, Labour would lose ten seats. But he also (rightly, IMO) noted that UNS is not likely to be a good guide, though failed to suggest a replacement.
FWIW, I think it'd be worse for Labour than UNS suggests. When a party collapses, it loses most in the seats where it has most, almost by definition - if you're down by 25% overall, you *can't* be down by that much in seats where you won less than 25% to begin with, and you'll keep a core vote even in places where you won up to, say, 30%. That means you'll see even bigger losses in seats where you had 35%+ i.e. the ones you won.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
I think that they will regret not getting more of a points advantage out of those first 20 minutes. Level now.
England have been remarkably arrogant over the last week, including supporters in my office.
I said the Springboks would pull something very impressive out of the bag for this final and not to fall subject to hubris.
What concerned me was the 100% of pundits calling it for England. Always a sign of groupthink and complacency. And England left something on the pitch when they beat the All Blacks.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
They've just had the British national anthem from the rugby game at the end of the Today programme. Nice touch.
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
It would be appropriate for Wales, Scotland and any Commonwealth country to use God Save the Queen if they wish. I don't see why England shouldn't use it just because other teams have chosen not to.
Lacking an official anthem for England its perfectly legitimate and appropriate to use the national anthem. This is like the bloody poppy debate that pops up every year.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
I think that they will regret not getting more of a points advantage out of those first 20 minutes. Level now.
England have been remarkably arrogant over the last week, including supporters in my office.
I said the Springboks would pull something very impressive out of the bag for this final and not to fall subject to hubris.
What concerned me was the 100% of pundits calling it for England. Always a sign of groupthink and complacency. And England left something on the pitch when they beat the All Blacks.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Wales also voted Leave and there is no clear evidence only EU membership is keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK, especially if we leave with a Deal as Boris has now got
I'm shuddering at being reminded of the 2017 Lib Dem campaign. How on earth we got away with it (in terms of not being wiped out) I'll never know. Hopefully we'll have Tim Farron locked away in a cupboard somewhere this time.
I remember Mark Senior being furious on here with the focus on the gay sex question, when it was Farrons initial equivocations that kept it running. Given his comments on that front after the election I'm sure he at least will be asked it again this time.
It was amazing that the LD share went down from 2015.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
You snapped up the 5/1 Lads offered on 11-15 for the SCons I presume?
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
Or alternatively: England - unlike the other British provinces in the World Cup - has the generosity and breadth of spirit to realise it's representing its country as well as its province. So on this occasion it sings its NATIONAL anthem.
Had Wales or Scotland made it to the final against England, it probably would have been appropriate to sing provincial anthems. They've failed so it's not.
PS NI doesn't field a team in international rugby.
I have read some bollox in my time but that gibberish takes the biscuit.
Good luck to England this morning in the Rugby World Cup final. I am sad at Scots who want South Africa to win simply because they want England to lose.
It's sad that Brits can't accept that non English Brits may support an SA with its first black captain doing well.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
I think that they will regret not getting more of a points advantage out of those first 20 minutes. Level now.
England have been remarkably arrogant over the last week, including supporters in my office.
I said the Springboks would pull something very impressive out of the bag for this final and not to fall subject to hubris.
What concerned me was the 100% of pundits calling it for England. Always a sign of groupthink and complacency. And England left something on the pitch when they beat the All Blacks.
Is this a metaphor for the election or something about the rugby?
Also, as noted in the article, Labour has been dropping to depths no main opposition has ever fallen to, with a low of 18% in a poll shortly after the Euros.
2. Yes, the Tories have weaknesses as well - though not as many to the same depth, I think.
3. Remain/Leave tribalism works *against* Labour. It is not in either of those camps and so will be squeezed.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
On Topic. I am not confident of a 2017 size swing. I do think a hung Parliament is most likely especially if non Tories get their tactical heads on. BREXIT may limit this however.
I'm shuddering at being reminded of the 2017 Lib Dem campaign. How on earth we got away with it (in terms of not being wiped out) I'll never know. Hopefully we'll have Tim Farron locked away in a cupboard somewhere this time.
I remember Mark Senior being furious on here with the focus on the gay sex question, when it was Farrons initial equivocations that kept it running. Given his comments on that front after the election I'm sure he at least will be asked it again this time.
It was amazing that the LD share went down from 2015.
The Lib Dem vote per candidate in 2017 was the lowest for their party (or any of their predecessors) since 1885, IIRC - and of course the electorate in the late Victorian era was *far* lower than today.
The Liberals scored fewer votes in the 1950s but they also stood far fewer candidates.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
Id question the sincerity. The issue were crystal clear at the time and people rebelled on both sides, unless she is saying she is really dumb - which I've not heard is the case- she knew what she was doing and what was risked when she didnt vote for it.
The Rugby commentators never explain why a penalty has been awarded for people who aren't experts in the game like me. I don't have a clue why a penalty was just awarded to South Africa.
Rugby commentators very often explain penalty awards, and oftentimes the referees fo on the field as well. It's a shame they dont always do so but it's very common.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
Of all the information we have, the opinion polls are the most reliable, by definition, because at least they're an attempt to be scientific. Everything else is gossip and totally un-scientific.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
I imagine they'll lead with how they wont no deal at least, is that enough yo put you off backing mr corbyn.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
What you are saying there appears to be a route to far more did not vote.
Garces isn't bias but his refereeing style is helpful to South Africa here. I think Itoje would have got a turnover earlier with others which could have changed the complexion
Split loyalties in my household, my wife is South African. My 5 year old daughter has chosen to support 'Africa' like mummy, the 3 year old has chosen to support 'daddies team' . . . but gone off to watch Toy Story as she's not interested in the rugby.
Hopefully the second half will be different as to be fair apart from us nearly getting a try over that 25-phase period, I think SA deserve the halftime lead. Hopefully the second half is better for England.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
Watching England play football or rugby always, for those of us old enough to remember it, has echoes of all those years watching Tim Henman plug away fruitlessly at Wimbledon.
He was actually very good, and you always felt he had some mathematical chance of winning the wretched thing, but in practice he always, ultimately, came up against someone who was better on the day and fell flat on his face. Most painful for him, of course, but not much fun for those of us watching either.
Oh well, such is life. At least an unwanted runners-up medal is a considerable improvement on getting knocked out in the group stage of your own bloody tournament.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
Of all the information we have, the opinion polls are the most reliable, by definition, because at least they're an attempt to be scientific. Everything else is gossip and totally un-scientific.
The problem of polls is that UNS is unlikely to accurately reflect constituency level fluidity. More than ever this election is a series of different regional battles, with different players in each region.
They may get more accurate when Yougov repeat their constituency level projection based on micro demographics.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
Also, as noted in the article, Labour has been dropping to depths no main opposition has ever fallen to, with a low of 18% in a poll shortly after the Euros.
2. Yes, the Tories have weaknesses as well - though not as many to the same depth, I think.
3. Remain/Leave tribalism works *against* Labour. It is not in either of those camps and so will be squeezed.
1 yes they do. After all that flowing and dropping of votes they are still all but guaranteed masses and masses of seats. Not having as strong a floor as the once did doesnt change that it is strong - that's why the big two are the big two and likely will remain so.
2 possibly, but the point was why the tories are not 30 points ahead, so its irrelevant whether the tory flaws are more serious.
3 they are in the remain camp in hundreds of their seats and their local campaigns will say so. A cast iron remain lab mp will be ditched by remainers because the official position is more nuanced? It'll probably happen to a few, but boy that would be dumb and self defeating.
And 4 Brexit party. Again doesnt prevent victory but why they are not further ahead.
Also, as noted in the article, Labour has been dropping to depths no main opposition has ever fallen to, with a low of 18% in a poll shortly after the Euros.
2. Yes, the Tories have weaknesses as well - though not as many to the same depth, I think.
3. Remain/Leave tribalism works *against* Labour. It is not in either of those camps and so will be squeezed.
Pretty much anyone who prioritised stopping Brexit in 2017 will have voted Labour. That won't be the case this time.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
Id question the sincerity. The issue were crystal clear at the time and people rebelled on both sides, unless she is saying she is really dumb - which I've not heard is the case- she knew what she was doing and what was risked when she didnt vote for it.
The refusal of many Remainers to compromise on a softer Brexit, and instead go hell for leather on a second referendum, is a major reason why we are now facing a super hard Brexit.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
Comments
As long as the punters are happy with the circus he's fine.
Boks look sharper, harder.
God Save the Queen should be the royal anthem for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and Jamaica etc and the nations where the Queen is still Head of State and played when the Queen or a royal is in attendance.
Otherwise they should all have their own national anthems, including England
Had Wales or Scotland made it to the final against England, it probably would have been appropriate to sing provincial anthems. They've failed so it's not.
PS NI doesn't field a team in international rugby.
They can’t just turn up and run around the pitch for 80 minutes and walk away with the cup, as they seem to think at the moment.
We've known for a while that Leave voters are prepared to lose Northern Ireland for Brexit, so criticising the Irish Sea border isn't going to faze them.
While the No Deal cliff edge at the end of 2020 worries Remain voters like me, it's a plus point in Withdrawal Agreement II for Leavers.
Farage talks about it being a treaty, and the money paid, but Northern Ireland (and citizen's rights) aside there are only temporary obligations as far as I'm aware.
Johnson also neutralises the not-a-normal-politician and lefties-really-hate-me advantages that Farage would have in establishing trustworthiness over any other Conservative politician for Leave voters.
Wales and Scotland will be paying attention but not supporting. Except Alun Cairns.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
I said the Springboks would pull something very impressive out of the bag for this final and not to fall subject to hubris.
In the most recent one, Roger Awan-Scully noted that using UNS, Labour would lose ten seats. But he also (rightly, IMO) noted that UNS is not likely to be a good guide, though failed to suggest a replacement.
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/10/15/the-october-welsh-political-barometer-poll/
FWIW, I think it'd be worse for Labour than UNS suggests. When a party collapses, it loses most in the seats where it has most, almost by definition - if you're down by 25% overall, you *can't* be down by that much in seats where you won less than 25% to begin with, and you'll keep a core vote even in places where you won up to, say, 30%. That means you'll see even bigger losses in seats where you had 35%+ i.e. the ones you won.
Strange.
But the deficiencies of Boris' of deal (in comparison) can still be repaired in the transitional period.
It was amazing that the LD share went down from 2015.
2 Wait for the sequel header on the Tories
3 the power of remain and leave tribalism.
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Explaining-Voter-Volatility.pdf
Also, as noted in the article, Labour has been dropping to depths no main opposition has ever fallen to, with a low of 18% in a poll shortly after the Euros.
2. Yes, the Tories have weaknesses as well - though not as many to the same depth, I think.
3. Remain/Leave tribalism works *against* Labour. It is not in either of those camps and so will be squeezed.
The Liberals scored fewer votes in the 1950s but they also stood far fewer candidates.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
Its like they have never seen SA play before.
Pathetic. SA will win this.
I know it’s early but I think this is already lost.
Whatever, we’ve already won the damn cup.
Hopefully the second half will be different as to be fair apart from us nearly getting a try over that 25-phase period, I think SA deserve the halftime lead. Hopefully the second half is better for England.
He was actually very good, and you always felt he had some mathematical chance of winning the wretched thing, but in practice he always, ultimately, came up against someone who was better on the day and fell flat on his face. Most painful for him, of course, but not much fun for those of us watching either.
Oh well, such is life. At least an unwanted runners-up medal is a considerable improvement on getting knocked out in the group stage of your own bloody tournament.
They may get more accurate when Yougov repeat their constituency level projection based on micro demographics.
2 possibly, but the point was why the tories are not 30 points ahead, so its irrelevant whether the tory flaws are more serious.
3 they are in the remain camp in hundreds of their seats and their local campaigns will say so. A cast iron remain lab mp will be ditched by remainers because the official position is more nuanced? It'll probably happen to a few, but boy that would be dumb and self defeating.
And 4 Brexit party. Again doesnt prevent victory but why they are not further ahead.
England have beaten Australia and New Zealand this tournament so it is hardly a failure if they do not win to an improved South African side
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
Now I’m facing quite a serious problem - how the hell to get back to Cannock when no trains are running south of Northampton.