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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 ma

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836

    Ouch. (fingers cap uneasily)

    Not you Nick! You were an MP for heaven's sake.

    There is, however, on this very thread, a specific and particularly good example of "stupid point made in intelligent style" - will not name and shame.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    OK, just written my contribution to the manifesto. Let's see if it makes the final draft.

    Although I'm not sure whether proposing a BBC porn channel is PC enough for Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    Barnesian said:

    @Barnesian what does your model say for Newcastle upon Tyne North?

    @Barnesian what does your model say for Newcastle upon Tyne North?

    @Gallowgate
    Newcastle upon Tyne North

    Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
    MRP 28/32/16/17/5
    Model 26/42/15/13/4
    Bloody hell that MRP prediction is too close for comfort.

    I hope your model is right. Looks like I’m going to have to vote Labour.
    Please do. We need every vote.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kinabalu said:

    I really enjoy Kinabalu’s posts. They give me a good laugh, which is what I think they’re intended to do.

    :smile:

    I like to make intelligent points in a stupid way.

    So often one sees the opposite.
    Ouch. (fingers cap uneasily)
    kinabalu said:

    Ouch. (fingers cap uneasily)

    Not you Nick! You were an MP for heaven's sake.

    There is, however, on this very thread, a specific and particularly good example of "stupid point made in intelligent style" - will not name and shame.
    https://timmaurer.com/2012/01/09/the-articulate-incompetent/
  • New Conservative parliamentary candidate for Rushcliffe selected to replace Ken Clarke

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/new-conservative-parliamentary-candidate-rushcliffe-3436768
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    This thread is in the same position as Casino Royale, after Live And Let Die was published.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    It sure is windy out there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.

    It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.

    Not you as well, Ian. Usually so calm and reasonable. Truly remarkable final sentence! We only need about 50 more seats than now. Few years of Blondie and Brexit, new leader with new appeal, and you say no chance of winning? C'mon.
    Labour’s coalition of the white working class, ethnic minorities, and the educated intelligentsia, is broken, and can’t be reassembled. Time to face facts.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    edited November 2019
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.

    It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.

    Not you as well, Ian. Usually so calm and reasonable. Truly remarkable final sentence! We only need about 50 more seats than now. Few years of Blondie and Brexit, new leader with new appeal, and you say no chance of winning? C'mon.
    Labour’s coalition of the white working class, ethnic minorities, and the educated intelligentsia, is broken, and can’t be reassembled. Time to face facts.
    That's opinion, hope, and rationalisation, not fact. When GE2017 was called and the Tories were at ~45% to Labour's ~25% in the polls, were you predicting a large Tory majority in the Commons?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    IanB2 said:

    Labour’s coalition of the white working class, ethnic minorities, and the educated intelligentsia, is broken, and can’t be reassembled. Time to face facts.

    Perhaps, but there could be a new synthesis. I wonder if you are going Lib Dem crazy because there is an election on? Understandable, I guess, if so. And TBF I myself am trying to drop all objectivity and be super partisan until Dec 12th.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.

    It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.

    Not you as well, Ian. Usually so calm and reasonable. Truly remarkable final sentence! We only need about 50 more seats than now. Few years of Blondie and Brexit, new leader with new appeal, and you say no chance of winning? C'mon.
    Labour’s coalition of the white working class, ethnic minorities, and the educated intelligentsia, is broken, and can’t be reassembled. Time to face facts.
    you could have said the same about the tories in 1997. all it takes is a leadership who is willing, and able, to drag the party into a position which appeals beyond the base membership. not easy but doable
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836
    edited November 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    This thread is in the same position as Casino Royale, after Live And Let Die was published.

    Interestingly, these were the 1st 2 books but neither were made into films until later on in the franchise. Even more interestingly, both were debuts for the respective leading actors, LALD being Roger Moore's in the early 70s and Casino that of Daniel Craig in the mid noughties. This is to ignore - as one must - the spoof Casino Royale with David Niven which came even before Connery and the very 1st Bond film proper, Dr No.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,836

    Is that like a bail bond, to be paid by people rich enough to be considered a flight risk before they travel abroad?

    :smile:

    It isn't, but that is perhaps better than my policy. Even though my one does solve both the pensions crunch and the government debt crisis at a single stroke.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.

    It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.

    Not you as well, Ian. Usually so calm and reasonable. Truly remarkable final sentence! We only need about 50 more seats than now. Few years of Blondie and Brexit, new leader with new appeal, and you say no chance of winning? C'mon.
    Labour’s coalition of the white working class, ethnic minorities, and the educated intelligentsia, is broken, and can’t be reassembled. Time to face facts.
    I am not sure I buy that. The white working class is nowhere near as white as it used to be. I'm as Anglo-Saxon as they come but I find that in big family gatherings there are muslims, Jews and even some French people to whom I am related. The educated intelligentsia are all broke. And ethnic minorities aren't quite as Labour as they were, but that's still the default setting. Older working class people are drifting away but old people in general are. I think that's the reason so many 'northern heartlands' are apparently deserting the Tories. The youngsters are as Labour as ever but have moved elsewhere to get jobs that sound a lot more middle class than what therr parents did, but still contrive to not pay very much. So I'd say the Labour tribe is still intact and available to be mobilised.
  • Brilliant & cogent piece- 10/10 and agrees with all the best like Prof Curtice
    , The British Election study, Electoral Calculus , Observer's Andrew Rawnsey reminding us that no Lab leader has ever won on such negative ratings + perceived economic recklessness . Labour has failed our nation and our people because it has no centre left leader ready to help queen & country just another 5 yrs of the most Nationalist Right Wing government ever.

    Corbyn's 'toxicity' will be blasted at the Brexit Tabloid and quality press readers be it terrorism, Commie agents, Venezuela , indifference to ISIS intervention following ISIS slaughters, isolationism, indifference to gassed kids in Syria pro-Putin, anti-NATO, anti-US, antisemitism, 1980s class war, only saying workers not employees, anti-business, gov. inexperience , weak communication skills, weak grasp of economics, weak grasp of UK/European trade , sitting on Brexit fence, no degree or proper Higher Education, Stalinist advisers at his top table etc

    Labour has committed its worse error in political history hence why one top professor has predicted its worse results since very early 20th century. Tony was so correct back in 2016 Corbyn is to lead Lab off a cliff edge.
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