Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
At what point in 2017 - ie how many weeks before the election - did Corbyn start his resurgence? That’s the pattern we should be looking for. If he’s gonna do it again he needs an exact repeat.
I think it was YouGov, fieldwork on 25/26 April with a 16-point lead compared to the previous 23-point lead. Assume poll published on 27th and that was 42 days before polling day.
We are 40 days from polling day.
So it should start around now. Hmm. Makes for a nervy week.
In their favour they don't start so far behind the Tories, and gains by the Lib Dems and SNP will mean that a small swing to the Tories will still leave them short of a majority. So there's a bit of leeway.
There will probably be enough polls published in the Sunday papers tomorrow that one of them, randomly, will have good news for Labour. Pretty dire if that's not the case.
I'd be astonished if there isn't an upswing for Labour after their campaign launch. There'll be a lot of Labour voters who will previously have flirted with other parties who'll use a Corbyn stump speech on telly as a psychological crutch - an excuse for discarding their doubts and reverting to type. You get the general idea - "Well, there were all these stories on the telly about Labour being soft on Europe, economically suicidal and rabidly anti-Semitic - but I liked what Jeremy said about the NHS and the bankers, and he sounds very nice, and I'm sure all the negative stuff people say about Labour is just the work of the biased MSM, and the Liberals are just Tories, and the Greens can never win, so yeah I'm voting Labour because I've always voted Labour in every election ever anyway."
There was an example of just such a biddable idiot as this who took the time to call into a show I was listening to on 5 Live earlier this week. There are an awful lot of them out there.
Similar things could be said re-Johnson's closeness to the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory party.
He's done it again. Is he a troll?
Apparently the only form of political analogy that can be used is to the Nazis. It's not like there's hundreds of years of alternative parties and positions over several continents to choose from. That would just be silly...
On the one hand, we should welcome greater voter participation.
On the other, if they all then troop down to the polling stations and shore up the Far Left vote it could be a catastrophe.
The overriding priority in this election is neither the EU nor the survival of the Union - it's keeping Corbyn and McDonnell away from the levers of power. Every single gain made from Labour is, to a greater or lesser extent, to be welcomed.
What in heaven's name could they do that is worse than what the Tories have already done?
The Tories are more Jedem das Seine than Arbeit Macht Frei.
Last time you used a word I didn't understand I had to clear my browser history and run CCleaner to clean the disk[1]. Before I google "Jedem das Seine", does it involve something that would get me arrested for Googling?
[1] Which is a bugger because now I'm on Windows 10 (spit) I don't know what Cortana is recording even tho I'm not signed in
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
Yes. Someone on here said the big launch for Unite to Remain would be early next week, so expect most to be announced then. Those are the three that I've heard of.
Assume Brighton Pavilion and Brecon will be as before. There's lots of speculation. Greens standing aside in Totnes for new Lib Dem Wollaston is an obvious one, but also a big concession by the Greens who finished ahead of the Lib Dems in GE2015 with 10.3% of the vote.
Funny how all the disgruntled Tories are flocking to the Lib Dems, they see it as the other Tory party.
It really is simple. You win elections by getting people to support you who didn't in the last election. So 22% of 2017 Lab voters, thank you very much and 10% of 2017 Con voters and a few MPs are welcome imo.
The MPs you've welcomed - you're welcome to them!
Indeed. Honestly I'm glad we've managed to get rid of them, they will cause exactly the same trouble for the Lib Dems when they see a policy they don't like. They want it to be all about them, not the party.
There is a point not discussed but if any of these ex conservative mps get elected as liberals, apart from Brexit, they remain conservatives at heart and in a tight HOC they would be likely to support a lot of the conservative manifesto
"They remain conservatives at heart", do they? Tons of wishful thinking there, BigG. Quite the contrary. The more they have to do with people with liberal values, the more Liberal they will become. It is time that everybody who wants to see a liberal society came together in the Liberal Democrats. That applies just as much to liberals still n the Labour Party. And of course that is what people are doing.
Quite. Conservatives were once a mix of liberals and tories. The tories have taken over and the whole party has become infested with nationalists and racists because that's what tories are. The liberal wing, including those who style themselves as "one nation" conservatives are deluding themselves into thinking their party exists any more. They really only have three choices: leave and support another party like the Lib Dems, stay and fight to win back the soul of their party from the tories (which they aren't doing), or bury their heads in the sand and prop up the nationalists. I have all the time and encouragement for those in the first two camps, but those in the third camp are fucking ridiculous. Ridiculous because they know deep down that they're propping up a regressive and small-minded racist as their party leader. And if they get their election win, they will smile, gloat, enjoy a brief sugar high, then have to endure years of regret as they watch the boot come down over and over again.
The worst people in the whole world are the ones who know the difference between right and wrong, and choose the side they know is wrong.
"They remain conservatives at heart", do they? Tons of wishful thinking there, BigG. Quite the contrary. The more they have to do with people with liberal values, the more Liberal they will become. It is time that everybody who wants to see a liberal society came together in the Liberal Democrats. That applies just as much to liberals still n the Labour Party. And of course that is what people are doing.
Liberal, like Nick Clegg's thoughts on gay marriage? I know lots of people in all parties and I'm in coalition with LibDems, many of whom I really like. But I wouldn't say you could reliably predict who will have moderate, tolerant values based on which party they're in. It's as much a temperamental thing as a political one.
The more fundamental problem that would stop me ever thinking of joining the LibDems is that, more than any of the other parties, they seem to be a club for winning elections rather than a party with a coherent concept of what Britain should be like, and it's a moveable feast which they quite openly shift around according to current public mood. Like their famous bar charts, it seems to me fundamentally unreliable. Better than the Tories or BXP, sure. But nonetheless uneasy ground.
I understand where, say, Nigel Farage wants to get to. I think I get the general idea of where Boris Johnson wants to go. I certainly know what Jeremy Corbyn wants. But the LibDems? What would Britain look like after 10 years of LibDem government?
The Tories are more Jedem das Seine than Arbeit Macht Frei.
Last time you used a word I didn't understand I had to clear my browser history and run CCleaner to clean the disk[1]. Before I google "Jedem das Seine", does it involve something that would get me arrested for Googling?
[1] Which is a bugger because now I'm on Windows 10 (spit) I don't know what Cortana is recording even tho I'm not signed in
Can you really be arrested for Googling something these days?
I see Trump described one of his political opponents as a poor bastard who quit(ted) like a dog.
I just hope he's wrong in his assumption that that kind of language will be appealing to the US electorate.
I was mostly upset at what an appallingly bad analogy it was. A famous characteristic of dogs is that they do NOT quit, even when they should... think dogged, dog in the manger, terrier-like, like a dog with a bone etc.
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
Yes. Someone on here said the big launch for Unite to Remain would be early next week, so expect most to be announced then. Those are the three that I've heard of.
Assume Brighton Pavilion and Brecon will be as before. There's lots of speculation. Greens standing aside in Totnes for new Lib Dem Wollaston is an obvious one, but also a big concession by the Greens who finished ahead of the Lib Dems in GE2015 with 10.3% of the vote.
Yes, there should be a Remain alliance announcement next week. I shared the IOW announcement last night, having checked to make sure it wasn’t embargoed - of course the numpty who sent it to me then came back with a “p.s. don’t tell anyone” - so as it happens you heard it here first. Although I see the decision has now leaked out at least to the local media.
The fact the Remain parties are prepared to work together to offer a single candidate in a range of key seats is a welcome development.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
"They remain conservatives at heart", do they? Tons of wishful thinking there, BigG. Quite the contrary. The more they have to do with people with liberal values, the more Liberal they will become. It is time that everybody who wants to see a liberal society came together in the Liberal Democrats. That applies just as much to liberals still n the Labour Party. And of course that is what people are doing.
Liberal, like Nick Clegg's thoughts on gay marriage?
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
west oxfordshire (namely Wantage) saw a huge cooperation between LDs and Greens in May so not really a surprise, also a big REMAIN vote but Ed Vaizey the sitting Tory has fairly strong remain credentials so should be a fairly safe Con hold though he was suspended over "that" vote but now back in fold.
I see Trump described one of his political opponents as a poor bastard who quit(ted) like a dog.
I just hope he's wrong in his assumption that that kind of language will be appealing to the US electorate.
I was mostly upset at what an appallingly bad analogy it was. A famous characteristic of dogs is that they do NOT quit, even when they should... think dogged, dog in the manger, terrier-like, like a dog with a bone etc.
Well, I did wonder whether dogs were generally regarded as quitters.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
Yes. Someone on here said the big launch for Unite to Remain would be early next week, so expect most to be announced then. Those are the three that I've heard of.
Assume Brighton Pavilion and Brecon will be as before. There's lots of speculation. Greens standing aside in Totnes for new Lib Dem Wollaston is an obvious one, but also a big concession by the Greens who finished ahead of the Lib Dems in GE2015 with 10.3% of the vote.
Yes, there should be a Remain alliance announcement next week. I shared the IOW announcement last night, having checked to make sure it wasn’t embargoed - of course the numpty who sent it to me then came back with a “p.s. don’t tell anyone” - so as it happens you heard it here first. Although I see the decision has now leaked out at least to the local media.
The fact the Remain parties are prepared to work together to offer a single candidate in a range of key seats is a welcome development.
I posted it on the VoteUK forum last night after seeing it on here.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
The rumour I heard is that a few prominent Labour remainers might be given a free run. But I don’t know for sure. What would be clever is for Labour to give the LibDems/Greens a free run in just a few key seats - for example JRM’s - but of course because it would be clever we can put money on tribal Labour not being willing to do so.
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
west oxfordshire (namely Wantage) saw a huge cooperation between LDs and Greens in May so not really a surprise, also a big REMAIN vote but Ed Vaizey the sitting Tory has fairly strong remain credentials so should be a fairly safe Con hold though he was suspended over "that" vote but now back in fold.
Yes, the winnability of such seats is another thing entirely. But South Oxon is interesting because the Conservatives have been in a state of civil war there and lost the council a few months ago.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
I think Labour's chances in Canterbury are higher with a Lib Dem than with clear run.
@NickPalmer probably a lot like Blair’s Britain but with less authoritarianism and more electoral reform.
Because we all remember the public protest, the resignation, the angry press releases, from Palmer when Labour reneged on its promise to introduce a fairer voting system when they were in power? I must have been out of the country that month.
Funny how all the disgruntled Tories are flocking to the Lib Dems, they see it as the other Tory party.
It really is simple. You win elections by getting people to support you who didn't in the last election. So 22% of 2017 Lab voters, thank you very much and 10% of 2017 Con voters and a few MPs are welcome imo.
The MPs you've welcomed - you're welcome to them!
Indeed. Honestly I'm glad we've managed to get rid of them, they will cause exactly the same trouble for the Lib Dems when they see a policy they don't like. They want it to be all about them, not the party.
There is a point not discussed but if any of these ex conservative mps get elected as liberals, apart from Brexit, they remain conservatives at heart and in a tight HOC they would be likely to support a lot of the conservative manifesto
Once they have left the party they have no obligation to support the Tories. LD voted consistently against the Blair govt (before iraq) even when the two parties were on the same page!
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
Yes. Someone on here said the big launch for Unite to Remain would be early next week, so expect most to be announced then. Those are the three that I've heard of.
Assume Brighton Pavilion and Brecon will be as before. There's lots of speculation. Greens standing aside in Totnes for new Lib Dem Wollaston is an obvious one, but also a big concession by the Greens who finished ahead of the Lib Dems in GE2015 with 10.3% of the vote.
Yes, there should be a Remain alliance announcement next week. I shared the IOW announcement last night, having checked to make sure it wasn’t embargoed - of course the numpty who sent it to me then came back with a “p.s. don’t tell anyone” - so as it happens you heard it here first. Although I see the decision has now leaked out at least to the local media.
The fact the Remain parties are prepared to work together to offer a single candidate in a range of key seats is a welcome development.
I posted it on the VoteUK forum last night after seeing it on here.
Since I didn’t say, “p.s. don’t tell anyone”, fair enough.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
The rumour I heard is that a few prominent Labour remainers might be given a free run. But I don’t know for sure. What would be clever is for Labour to give the LibDems/Greens a free run in just a few key seats - for example JRM’s - but of course because it would be clever we can put money on tribal Labour not being willing to do so.
That would make little sense . Labour was within 5000 votes of JRM in 2010 and well ahead of the LDs in an election in which the latter polled 23% nationally to Labour's 29.7%.. Moreover, Labour would probably have won the seat on such boundaries in 2005.
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
west oxfordshire (namely Wantage) saw a huge cooperation between LDs and Greens in May so not really a surprise, also a big REMAIN vote but Ed Vaizey the sitting Tory has fairly strong remain credentials so should be a fairly safe Con hold though he was suspended over "that" vote but now back in fold.
Yes, the winnability of such seats is another thing entirely. But South Oxon is interesting because the Conservatives have been in a state of civil war there and lost the council a few months ago.
Wantage is not in West Oxfordshire. Witney is however the same as West Oxon.
Which gives me the chance to say that it is also very remain, with an avowedly Brexit m.p. who is too new to have a personal following. Tories win partly due to a divided opposition - Witney Chipping Norton are Labour but the villages on the edge of Oxford Lib Dem. Tories will probably win not least because Labour have built up a good base in Witney itself. Even so, for the first time, by-elections excepted, it is interesting here.
On the one hand, we should welcome greater voter participation.
On the other, if they all then troop down to the polling stations and shore up the Far Left vote it could be a catastrophe.
The overriding priority in this election is neither the EU nor the survival of the Union - it's keeping Corbyn and McDonnell away from the levers of power. Every single gain made from Labour is, to a greater or lesser extent, to be welcomed.
What in heaven's name could they do that is worse than what the Tories have already done?
The expropriation of private property (whether paid for at an arbitrary rate, well short of market value, voted through by Parliament, or outright) would be enough to completely destroy the economy on its own. And yes, I'm sure there'd be fountains of cash for Our Beloved NHS, and pretty much everything else, but since it would be about as valuable as sheets of toilet paper (and, indeed, best used as such, since one would otherwise have to queue for four hours at the local Red Star Supermarket to obtain one's ration of the real thing,) this would hardly help.
The core of the Labour leadership - and most of the mass membership of the party - resemble a bunch of crazed revolutionaries from one of the more radical South American movements. Scandinavian Social Democrats they ain't.
Molly Scott Cato, the Green MEP for the South West, is standing in Stroud, where the Greens have seven councillors in the constituency. That would seem like another strong possibility for the Liberal Democrats to stand aside for the Greens.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
The rumour I heard is that a few prominent Labour remainers might be given a free run. But I don’t know for sure. What would be clever is for Labour to give the LibDems/Greens a free run in just a few key seats - for example JRM’s - but of course because it would be clever we can put money on tribal Labour not being willing to do so.
That would make little sense . Labour was within 5000 votes of JRM in 2010 and well ahead of the LDs in an election in which the latter polled 23% nationally to Labour's 29.7%.. Moreover, Labour would probably have won the seat on such boundaries in 2005.
What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.
It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.
Molly Scott Cato, the Green MEP for the South West, is standing in Stroud, where the Greens have seven councillors in the constituency. That would seem like another strong possibility for the Liberal Democrats to stand aside for the Greens.
The seat is currently held by Labour, although I don't know what the sitting MP's views on Europe are.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
I think Labour's chances in Canterbury are higher with a Lib Dem than with clear run.
I have seen plenty of stuff that says while Labour people vote Lib Dem, Lib Dems themselves split much more evenly. To the point of having a neutral effect were they to withdraw.
Also will the arrival, no matter how temporary, of a bunch of Tory mp's have an effect on the Lib Dem's positioning?
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
The rumour I heard is that a few prominent Labour remainers might be given a free run. But I don’t know for sure. What would be clever is for Labour to give the LibDems/Greens a free run in just a few key seats - for example JRM’s - but of course because it would be clever we can put money on tribal Labour not being willing to do so.
That would make little sense . Labour was within 5000 votes of JRM in 2010 and well ahead of the LDs in an election in which the latter polled 23% nationally to Labour's 29.7%.. Moreover, Labour would probably have won the seat on such boundaries in 2005.
What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.
It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.
I think it’s highly possible that there will be a Labour majority government, but certainly not under its current leadership.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
Rosie Duffield is a member of the Labour Party, isn`t she? with all that that implies.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Also labour aren’t interested in the remain alliance are they so why should they be accommodated?
The rumour I heard is that a few prominent Labour remainers might be given a free run. But I don’t know for sure. What would be clever is for Labour to give the LibDems/Greens a free run in just a few key seats - for example JRM’s - but of course because it would be clever we can put money on tribal Labour not being willing to do so.
That would make little sense . Labour was within 5000 votes of JRM in 2010 and well ahead of the LDs in an election in which the latter polled 23% nationally to Labour's 29.7%.. Moreover, Labour would probably have won the seat on such boundaries in 2005.
What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.
It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
As a self-declared remainer, I am sure that is the last thing you would want to see.
At what point in 2017 - ie how many weeks before the election - did Corbyn start his resurgence? That’s the pattern we should be looking for. If he’s gonna do it again he needs an exact repeat.
I think it was YouGov, fieldwork on 25/26 April with a 16-point lead compared to the previous 23-point lead. Assume poll published on 27th and that was 42 days before polling day.
We are 40 days from polling day.
So it should start around now. Hmm. Makes for a nervy week.
In their favour they don't start so far behind the Tories, and gains by the Lib Dems and SNP will mean that a small swing to the Tories will still leave them short of a majority. So there's a bit of leeway.
There will probably be enough polls published in the Sunday papers tomorrow that one of them, randomly, will have good news for Labour. Pretty dire if that's not the case.
how I was listening to on 5 Live earlier this week. There are an awful lot of them out there.
Similar things could be said re-Johnson's closeness to the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory party.
Moderator alert! This sort of post really is unacceptable. The only charitable explanation is drunkeness.
The Tories are more Jedem das Seine than Arbeit Macht Frei.
Another day, another mininisation of the Holocaust on PB. Shameful.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
Farage dgaf
Exactly. He doesn't really want to leave. He loses his gravy train ticket and political relevance.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
As a self-declared remainer, I am sure that is the last thing you would want to see.
When it comes to Brexit, I hover in a quantum superposition of states, neither one thing or the other, but somehow both at the same time, until I am observed. Rather like the country.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
Let us spare a thought for a moment for those England rugby fans who are also Man U supporters. This is not a position that one would wish to occupy in a Venn diagram right now.
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
I’m sorry but this is embarrassing pifflewank
Whilst I agree with the sentiment I would avoid words like 'pifflewank' as people will assume you are Boris.
The Tories are more Jedem das Seine than Arbeit Macht Frei.
Last time you used a word I didn't understand I had to clear my browser history and run CCleaner to clean the disk[1]. Before I google "Jedem das Seine", does it involve something that would get me arrested for Googling?
[1] Which is a bugger because now I'm on Windows 10 (spit) I don't know what Cortana is recording even tho I'm not signed in
Can you really be arrested for Googling something these days?
I get my laptops checked and cleared down every two/three years, and I occasionally have to pass security checks (not big ones!). It's best not to do something that looks weird, even if it is ultimately innocuous.
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
I’m sorry but this is embarrassing pifflewank
Whilst I agree with the sentiment I would avoid words like 'pifflewank' as people will assume you are Boris.
I am constantly presumed to be someone I am not, so I shall not lament.
Thanks to Taxman: clearing out all the cookies and crap has restored me to commenting health. I feel like a new PBer.
I am off on my holidays! I am on my own for a whole week. Just tipped a waitress at Manchester Airport because I fancied her! No doubt SeanT would have provided a different kind of tip!
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
I’m sorry but this is embarrassing pifflewank
Whilst I agree with the sentiment I would avoid words like 'pifflewank' as people will assume you are Boris.
I am constantly presumed to be someone I am not, so I shall not lament.
Thanks to Taxman: clearing out all the cookies and crap has restored me to commenting health. I feel like a new PBer.
Good! When I could not get the comments I wondered what had happened. OGH has a very good website. Keep it up sir!
I was wondering about whether this would happen. But for the Conservatives' stand on Brexit, Soubry would otherwise have been very content to stay within the Conservative Party. Unlike Allen and Wollaston, Soubry clearly sees differences between her wider Conservative values and those of the Lib Dems that she views as irreconcilable, hence her decision to stay with the corpse of whatever her flatlining new party calls itself nowadays. So putting Brexit aside, the decision of the Lib Dems to nonetheless endorse Soubry does say quite a lot about the direction that Swinson wants to take the Lib Dems.
If the Remain vote is allying with itself in Remain areas, that puts more pressure on Farage to see sense and do the same for Leave.
Farage dgaf
Exactly. He doesn't really want to leave. He loses his gravy train ticket and political relevance.
I think Farage is rather vulnerble to that point being made loudly and often....
At what point in 2017 - ie how many weeks before the election - did Corbyn start his resurgence? That’s the pattern we should be looking for. If he’s gonna do it again he needs an exact repeat.
I think it was YouGov, fieldwork on 25/26 April with a 16-point lead compared to the previous 23-point lead. Assume poll published on 27th and that was 42 days before polling day.
We are 40 days from polling day.
So it should start around now. Hmm. Makes for a nervy week.
In their favour they don't start so far behind the Tories, and gains by the Lib Dems and SNP will mean that a small swing to the Tories will still leave them short of a majority. So there's a bit of leeway.
There will probably be enough polls published in the Sunday papers tomorrow that one of them, randomly, will have good news for Labour. Pretty dire if that's not the case.
I'd be astonished if there isn't an upswing for Labour after their campaign launch. There'll be a lot of Labour voters who will previously have flirted with other parties who'll use a Corbyn stump speech on telly as a psychological crutch - an excuse for discarding their doubts and reverting to type. You get the general idea - "Well, there were all these stories on the telly about Labour being soft on Europe, economically suicidal and rabidly anti-Semitic - but I liked what Jeremy said about the NHS and the bankers, and he sounds very nice, and I'm sure all the negative stuff people say about Labour is just the work of the biased MSM, and the Liberals are just Tories, and the Greens can never win, so yeah I'm voting Labour because I've always voted Labour in every election ever anyway."
There was an example of just such a biddable idiot as this who took the time to call into a show I was listening to on 5 Live earlier this week. There are an awful lot of them out there.
Similar things could be said re-Johnson's closeness to the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory party.
Moderator alert! This sort of post really is unacceptable. The only charitable explanation is drunkeness.
I can only assume Justin has issues but I would agree about your Moderator alert
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
It’s not dying any time soon, as it produces the cheapest fossil fuel on the planet. But will quite probably not happen in the UK at all now.
The issue of the associated earthquakes is just too problematic in a country as intensively populated as England. They've tried it; it doesn't work here. Shame, because as you say it is relatively cheap energy.
Surely a few earthquakes are "a price well worth paying," if there's profit to be made?
In Scotland maybe. There are far fewer people to bother in big chunks of it. And you can pay them off.
But who is going to invest big money in a country threatening to go independent, with no certainty on currency and taxation risk?
I was attempting satire. I should know better these days.
Just got an email from Jeremy Corbyn. "Would you like to help us write our manifesto Roger"
Blimey!
Me too! Chest swelling. Might take it seriously and offer up a couple of ideas. "Citizens Bond" is one that springs to mind. McDonnell in particular might be receptive to that.
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
west oxfordshire (namely Wantage) saw a huge cooperation between LDs and Greens in May so not really a surprise, also a big REMAIN vote but Ed Vaizey the sitting Tory has fairly strong remain credentials so should be a fairly safe Con hold though he was suspended over "that" vote but now back in fold.
I think Wantage is a clear Tory HOLD.
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
MRP projection 39/15/29/10/6 My model 45/12/26/11/5
Standing against Rosie Duffield but not Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve is not great optics for the Lib Dems, even if I can see the internal logic of the position.
I think Labour's chances in Canterbury are higher with a Lib Dem than with clear run.
Canterbury Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn MRP 32/26/22/11/9 Model 36/33/17/9/5
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
At what point in 2017 - ie how many weeks before the election - did Corbyn start his resurgence? That’s the pattern we should be looking for. If he’s gonna do it again he needs an exact repeat.
I think it was YouGov, fieldwork on 25/26 April with a 16-point lead compared to the previous 23-point lead. Assume poll published on 27th and that was 42 days before polling day.
We are 40 days from polling day.
So it should start around now. Hmm. Makes for a nervy week.
In their favour they don't start so far behind the Tories, and gains by the Lib Dems and SNP will mean that a small swing to the Tories will still leave them short of a majority. So there's a bit of leeway.
There will probably be enough polls published in the Sunday papers tomorrow that one of them, randomly, will have good news for Labour. Pretty dire if that's not the case.
There was an example of just such a biddable idiot as this who took the time to call into a show I was listening to on 5 Live earlier this week. There are an awful lot of them out there.
Similar things could be said re-Johnson's closeness to the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory party.
Moderator alert! This sort of post really is unacceptable. The only charitable explanation is drunkeness.
I can only assume Justin has issues but I would agree about your Moderator alert
LD's won the damn seat in living..... at least my..... memory! (refers to IoW..... vanilla strikes again!)
That's 3 seats where the LDs aren't standing so far.
Which ones? Is Wantage one of those?
Beaconsfield (Grieve) Broxtowe (Soubry) Isle of Wight (Greens)
Sorry, I got it wrong. Wantage will go the other way, Greens standing down. Watch out for Henley, could see the Lib Dems withdrawing there for the Greens.
Also, Brighton? Norwich? Bristol? Surely at least one of those?
west oxfordshire (namely Wantage) saw a huge cooperation between LDs and Greens in May so not really a surprise, also a big REMAIN vote but Ed Vaizey the sitting Tory has fairly strong remain credentials so should be a fairly safe Con hold though he was suspended over "that" vote but now back in fold.
Yes, the winnability of such seats is another thing entirely. But South Oxon is interesting because the Conservatives have been in a state of civil war there and lost the council a few months ago.
Wantage is not in West Oxfordshire. Witney is however the same as West Oxon.
Which gives me the chance to say that it is also very remain, with an avowedly Brexit m.p. who is too new to have a personal following. Tories win partly due to a divided opposition - Witney Chipping Norton are Labour but the villages on the edge of Oxford Lib Dem. Tories will probably win not least because Labour have built up a good base in Witney itself. Even so, for the first time, by-elections excepted, it is interesting here.
Witney Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn MRP 41/12/28/11/7 Model 47/6/32/11/4
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
What's worse is that he's doing this at John Lewis. That's normally the oasis of civilization at Brent Cross.
Just got an email from Jeremy Corbyn. "Would you like to help us write our manifesto Roger"
Blimey!
Let us know if you take him up on it. This is a betting site after all.....
Surely it’s about time people started paying for the costs of their care home.....?
Jeremy will announce free care for the elderly. You just have to sign your home over to the state and make spare rooms available to the homeless and Gardens will become community allotments. Not so outrageous in an ideal world.
Conclusion: concentrating wealth in the hands of a few individuals creates stark risks for the tax base and gives enormous political power to those people. It's not healthy for democracy or the economy to have huge inequalities of wealth.
OK, but I sense that was not the direction the interesting factoid introducer was going in. I was hoping for a discussion whereby a person's economic value to the nation gets erroneously conflated with the size of their tax bill. That way I could wing in with some corrective nuggets. But it didn't happen. Not this time anyway.
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
I would've thought that the staff would have tasered him and thrown him out the tradesman's entrance by now. Standards at John Lewis are obviously slipping, alas.
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
Just got an email from Jeremy Corbyn. "Would you like to help us write our manifesto Roger"
Blimey!
Me too! Chest swelling. Might take it seriously and offer up a couple of ideas. "Citizens Bond" is one that springs to mind. McDonnell in particular might be receptive to that.
Is that like a bail bond, to be paid by people rich enough to be considered a flight risk before they travel abroad?
Just got an email from Jeremy Corbyn. "Would you like to help us write our manifesto Roger"
Blimey!
Given your advertising background you should offer to proof read and edit it. Make it readable and quotable as opposed to the usual stuff parties come up with. Didn't Labour try a few years back to have a manifesto that was aimed at a broader mass market readership and sold at WH Smiths and the like?
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
I blame Boris.
Boris hasn't had the time or Parliamentary backing to pass the Public Execution for Impolite Table Manners Act yet. Give him a chance...
Anyway, the individual in question probably spent their formative years under a Labour Government.
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
What earthly reason could there be for your being in Brent X? I’m guessing you’re waiting for a lift up the M1? It’s the only plausible explanation.
The expropriation of private property (whether paid for at an arbitrary rate, well short of market value, voted through by Parliament, or outright) would be enough to completely destroy the economy on its own. And yes, I'm sure there'd be fountains of cash for Our Beloved NHS, and pretty much everything else, but since it would be about as valuable as sheets of toilet paper (and, indeed, best used as such, since one would otherwise have to queue for four hours at the local Red Star Supermarket to obtain one's ration of the real thing,) this would hardly help.
The core of the Labour leadership - and most of the mass membership of the party - resemble a bunch of crazed revolutionaries from one of the more radical South American movements. Scandinavian Social Democrats they ain't.
Late to David's excellent and informative thread. To add to the 10 points, here are three more that should give Labour cause for concern:
11. Following each GE, polling companies make adjustments to their methodology to try and avoid repeating past mistakes, and 2017 is no exception. Actual adjustments made since 2017 are summed up by Anthony Wells here: "... in the 2017 election, most of the difference between polls was indeed down to how polling companies predicted likelihood to vote, and this was the biggest cause of polling error. However when those new turnout models backfired and went wrong, polling companies dropped them. There are no longer any companies using demographic based turnout models that have a huge impact on voting intention figures and weight down young people. These days almost everyone has gone back to basing their turnout models primarily on how likely respondents themselves say they are to vote, a filter that typically only has a modest impact." http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10093
...
Whatever your methodology you can *always* produce an infinite number of "improvements" by fine tuning and backtesting. Say your basic method is examining the entrails of chickens. You go back over your data and see whether examinations before or after lunch, or of male vs female chicken entrails, or conducted wearing a swimsuit vs wearing evening dress, were better predictors. Every single parameter you can think of yields an "improvement" in one direction or the other (except a few which give a neutral result, randomness being what it is) without actually making any difference at all to the objective value of your method.
In data science / machine learning, beginners often make the mistake of "overfitting". This produces a model that deals very well with the training data, but is a poor generalised model.
"They remain conservatives at heart", do they? Tons of wishful thinking there, BigG. Quite the contrary. The more they have to do with people with liberal values, the more Liberal they will become. It is time that everybody who wants to see a liberal society came together in the Liberal Democrats. That applies just as much to liberals still n the Labour Party. And of course that is what people are doing.
Liberal, like Nick Clegg's thoughts on gay marriage?
Did Clegg have bad thoughts about gay marriage?
He was well known for his secret bad thoughts about gay marriage.
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
Hang around. He'll slurp his coffee from the saucer.
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
It’s not dying any time soon, as it produces the cheapest fossil fuel on the planet. But will quite probably not happen in the UK at all now.
The issue of the associated earthquakes is just too problematic in a country as intensively populated as England. They've tried it; it doesn't work here. Shame, because as you say it is relatively cheap energy.
Surely a few earthquakes are "a price well worth paying," if there's profit to be made?
In Scotland maybe. There are far fewer people to bother in big chunks of it. And you can pay them off.
But who is going to invest big money in a country threatening to go independent, with no certainty on currency and taxation risk?
I was attempting satire. I should know better these days.
What matters is the number of voters who didn’t vote for you last time who are prepared to consider doing so this time. For Labour, that means they can never win the seat. Indeed a lot of the voters who plumped for them last time are already looking elsewhere.
It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.
Not you as well, Ian. Usually so calm and reasonable. Truly remarkable final sentence! We only need about 50 more seats than now. Few years of Blondie and Brexit, new leader with new appeal, and you say no chance of winning? C'mon.
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
It’s not dying any time soon, as it produces the cheapest fossil fuel on the planet. But will quite probably not happen in the UK at all now.
The issue of the associated earthquakes is just too problematic in a country as intensively populated as England. They've tried it; it doesn't work here. Shame, because as you say it is relatively cheap energy.
Surely a few earthquakes are "a price well worth paying," if there's profit to be made?
In Scotland maybe. There are far fewer people to bother in big chunks of it. And you can pay them off.
But who is going to invest big money in a country threatening to go independent, with no certainty on currency and taxation risk?
I was attempting satire. I should know better these days.
So was I. Thought the Nats would bite......
Just back from getting my sides stitched up after 'England 2nd half = Boris 2019'. Did I miss anything?
Well, completely off topic: I am in the John Lewis restaurant in Brent X minding my own business with a nice cup of coffee and at the next table there is a man who is eating his lunch in quite the most revolting way imaginable - half with his fingers, half with a fork used as a spade shovelling it all in and spluttering everywhere. Honestly, I’ve seen chimps eat with more grace. How do people become adults without acquiring even the most elementary manners?
lol - you made me smile! I cannot laugh as i am in a public place! I once went to a wedding where the people I was sat with started scrapping waste food onto one plate! I did not say anything and funnily enough I did not have any conversation I can remember! Some people do not know any better. But they are still people! A few thousand years ago our ancestors were livining in North Africa or the middle east as hunter gatherers! Indeed Seant wrote a book on it!
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
It’s not dying any time soon, as it produces the cheapest fossil fuel on the planet. But will quite probably not happen in the UK at all now.
The issue of the associated earthquakes is just too problematic in a country as intensively populated as England. They've tried it; it doesn't work here. Shame, because as you say it is relatively cheap energy.
Surely a few earthquakes are "a price well worth paying," if there's profit to be made?
In Scotland maybe. There are far fewer people to bother in big chunks of it. And you can pay them off.
But who is going to invest big money in a country threatening to go independent, with no certainty on currency and taxation risk?
I was attempting satire. I should know better these days.
So was I. Thought the Nats would bite......
Just back from getting my sides stitched up after 'England 2nd half = Boris 2019'. Did I miss anything?
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
It’s not dying any time soon, as it produces the cheapest fossil fuel on the planet. But will quite probably not happen in the UK at all now.
The issue of the associated earthquakes is just too problematic in a country as intensively populated as England. They've tried it; it doesn't work here. Shame, because as you say it is relatively cheap energy.
Surely a few earthquakes are "a price well worth paying," if there's profit to be made?
In Scotland maybe. There are far fewer people to bother in big chunks of it. And you can pay them off.
But who is going to invest big money in a country threatening to go independent, with no certainty on currency and taxation risk?
I was attempting satire. I should know better these days.
So was I. Thought the Nats would bite......
Just back from getting my sides stitched up after 'England 2nd half = Boris 2019'. Did I miss anything?
I see Trump described one of his political opponents as a poor bastard who quit(ted) like a dog.
I just hope he's wrong in his assumption that that kind of language will be appealing to the US electorate.
Ditto in spades. The guy is a truly bottom drawer specimen. Can the good people of America really do that again? I don't think so. If they do - well let's not even go there.
Funny how all the disgruntled Tories are flocking to the Lib Dems, they see it as the other Tory party.
It really is simple. You win elections by getting people to support you who didn't in the last election. So 22% of 2017 Lab voters, thank you very much and 10% of 2017 Con voters and a few MPs are welcome imo.
The MPs you've welcomed - you're welcome to them!
Indeed. Honestly I'm glad we've managed to get rid of them, they will cause exactly the same trouble for the Lib Dems when they see a policy they don't like. They want it to be all about them, not the party.
There is a point not discussed but if any of these ex conservative mps get elected as liberals, apart from Brexit, they remain conservatives at heart and in a tight HOC they would be likely to support a lot of the conservative manifesto
I am not sure that is the case. It may well be ex-smoker syndrome, where those who have given up the habit are the most fanatical critics.
In the case of Dominic Grieve, Philip Lee, Guto Bebb, Sarah Wollaston, I think they've wanted Out of the Conservative Party for a long time, and in the case of Heidi Allen, she only joined it by accident.
I agree with all of that except Dominic Grieve.
I think he's a Conservative, albeit a solid Remainer, and one nation one, and still exhibits levels of social conservatism over some matters.
More accurate to call him a male version of Anna Soubry. He thinks no price is too high to stop Brexit.
Comments
[1] Which is a bugger because now I'm on Windows 10 (spit) I don't know what Cortana is recording even tho I'm not signed in
Assume Brighton Pavilion and Brecon will be as before. There's lots of speculation. Greens standing aside in Totnes for new Lib Dem Wollaston is an obvious one, but also a big concession by the Greens who finished ahead of the Lib Dems in GE2015 with 10.3% of the vote.
The liberal wing, including those who style themselves as "one nation" conservatives are deluding themselves into thinking their party exists any more. They really only have three choices: leave and support another party like the Lib Dems, stay and fight to win back the soul of their party from the tories (which they aren't doing), or bury their heads in the sand and prop up the nationalists.
I have all the time and encouragement for those in the first two camps, but those in the third camp are fucking ridiculous. Ridiculous because they know deep down that they're propping up a regressive and small-minded racist as their party leader. And if they get their election win, they will smile, gloat, enjoy a brief sugar high, then have to endure years of regret as they watch the boot come down over and over again.
The worst people in the whole world are the ones who know the difference between right and wrong, and choose the side they know is wrong.
I just hope he's wrong in his assumption that that kind of language will be appealing to the US electorate.
The more fundamental problem that would stop me ever thinking of joining the LibDems is that, more than any of the other parties, they seem to be a club for winning elections rather than a party with a coherent concept of what Britain should be like, and it's a moveable feast which they quite openly shift around according to current public mood. Like their famous bar charts, it seems to me fundamentally unreliable. Better than the Tories or BXP, sure. But nonetheless uneasy ground.
I understand where, say, Nigel Farage wants to get to. I think I get the general idea of where Boris Johnson wants to go. I certainly know what Jeremy Corbyn wants. But the LibDems? What would Britain look like after 10 years of LibDem government?
https://twitter.com/mrdavidwhitley/status/1190551726731878400?s=20
The fact the Remain parties are prepared to work together to offer a single candidate in a range of key seats is a welcome development.
In contrast, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve are no longer members of the Tories.
It does make a difference.
Still, it's mostly the rudeness that offended me.
Which gives me the chance to say that it is also very remain, with an avowedly Brexit m.p. who is too new to have a personal following. Tories win partly due to a divided opposition - Witney Chipping Norton are Labour but the villages on the edge of Oxford Lib Dem. Tories will probably win not least because Labour have built up a good base in Witney itself. Even so, for the first time, by-elections excepted, it is interesting here.
The core of the Labour leadership - and most of the mass membership of the party - resemble a bunch of crazed revolutionaries from one of the more radical South American movements. Scandinavian Social Democrats they ain't.
It is time that Labour got real. There isn’t going to be a majority Labour Government, ever, again.
Also will the arrival, no matter how temporary, of a bunch of Tory mp's have an effect on the Lib Dem's positioning?
Blimey!
[Thinks for a minute. Bugger...
Thanks to Taxman: clearing out all the cookies and crap has restored me to commenting health. I feel like a new PBer.
You did MASSIVELY overrate the chance of No Deal, of course, but you were in good company there. Plenty of this site's very best did that.
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
MRP projection 39/15/29/10/6
My model 45/12/26/11/5
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
MRP 32/26/22/11/9
Model 36/33/17/9/5
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
MRP 41/12/28/11/7
Model 47/6/32/11/4
Not so outrageous in an ideal world.
Didn't Labour try a few years back to have a manifesto that was aimed at a broader mass market readership and sold at WH Smiths and the like?
Anyway, the individual in question probably spent their formative years under a Labour Government.
And it will have chocolate on it.......
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1080024092089241600
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn
MRP 28/32/16/17/5
Model 26/42/15/13/4
I hope your model is right. Looks like I’m going to have to vote Labour.
I think he's a Conservative, albeit a solid Remainer, and one nation one, and still exhibits levels of social conservatism over some matters.
More accurate to call him a male version of Anna Soubry. He thinks no price is too high to stop Brexit.
Instead, I'm going to scan Tory, Lab and LD target seats and use "informed gut instinct", qualified by views and intelligence posted on here.