There would not have been even if we had won, after England won in 2003 Blair got no bounce in 2005
This is during an election not 2 years before. Totally different. Johnson and Cummings were counting on a win for England and they will be extremely worried (with good reason) that it did not transpire. Worse, we got hammered. How many seats will it cost the Cons? Obviously it's hard to be precise but I would estimate 5 to 7, which could be the difference between a Tory majority and a hung parliament.
Well it's a view but today's defeat will not be in peoples minds when they cast their votes
There would not have been even if we had won, after England won in 2003 Blair got no bounce in 2005
This is during an election not 2 years before. Totally different. Johnson and Cummings were counting on a win for England and they will be extremely worried (with good reason) that it did not transpire. Worse, we got hammered. How many seats will it cost the Cons? Obviously it's hard to be precise but I would estimate 5 to 7, which could be the difference between a Tory majority and a hung parliament.
What utter crap.
England were expected to lose to New Zealand in the semi final, they beat them under Boris as they beat Australia in the quarter final, even getting to the final was a bonus despite the loss.
Labour supporters praying for an England loss today to save Corbyn shows how desperate and weak they are now
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such ith a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though han pro Brexit too
now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Not true. It is the most likely way, but there is also the possibility that in the Highlands voters are deserting the SNP masked by a further trend towards them in the central belt.
That is a fantasy
Why? Are you saying the Highlands with its huge number of English expats is a fertile hunting ground for the SNP?
In any case, I was saying it’s a possible alternative, not that it is what’s happening.
Surprise you how many English support the SNP and growing
If I were living in Scotland, I would now vote SNP. Independence is increasingly inevitable, might as well get on with it. Brexit has smashed the Union, even if A50 is revoked.
Of course you would because you put stopping Brexit above the Union, there is no clear polling evidence the Union would end without No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids but you are more loyal to Brussels than you are to English and Welsh Leave areas
Anyone who supports Brexit can’t really argue against Scottish independence if that’s what the people of Scotland want, even if they would prefer Scotland to stay in the union. Those on the remain side can of course point to the huge problem the UK has had in negotiating Brexit (which has Article 50 to supposedly make the process work) and ask how much harder leaving the 300 year old union would be, particularly if the rUK were not cooperating. An easy Brexit would make the SNP’s aim much easier to sell.
At what point in 2017 - ie how many weeks before the election - did Corbyn start his resurgence? That’s the pattern we should be looking for. If he’s gonna do it again he needs an exact repeat.
I think it was YouGov, fieldwork on 25/26 April with a 16-point lead compared to the previous 23-point lead. Assume poll published on 27th and that was 42 days before polling day.
We are 40 days from polling day.
So it should start around now. Hmm. Makes for a nervy week.
In their favour they don't start so far behind the Tories, and gains by the Lib Dems and SNP will mean that a small swing to the Tories will still leave them short of a majority. So there's a bit of leeway.
There will probably be enough polls published in the Sunday papers tomorrow that one of them, randomly, will have good news for Labour. Pretty dire if that's not the case.
I'd be astonished if there isn't an upswing for Labour after their campaign launch. There'll be a lot of Labour voters who will previously have flirted with other parties who'll use a Corbyn stump speech on telly as a psychological crutch - an excuse for discarding their doubts and reverting to type. You get the general idea - "Well, there were all these stories on the telly about Labour being soft on Europe, economically suicidal and rabidly anti-Semitic - but I liked what Jeremy said about the NHS and the bankers, and he sounds very nice, and I'm sure all the negative stuff people say about Labour is just the work of the biased MSM, and the Liberals are just Tories, and the Greens can never win, so yeah I'm voting Labour because I've always voted Labour in every election ever anyway."
There was an example of just such a biddable idiot as this who took the time to call into a show I was listening to on 5 Live earlier this week. There are an awful lot of them out there.
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
At what point in 2017 - ie how many weeks before the election - did Corbyn start his resurgence? That’s the pattern we should be looking for. If he’s gonna do it again he needs an exact repeat.
I think it was YouGov, fieldwork on 25/26 April with a 16-point lead compared to the previous 23-point lead. Assume poll published on 27th and that was 42 days before polling day.
We are 40 days from polling day.
So it should start around now. Hmm. Makes for a nervy week.
In their favour they don't start so far behind the Tories, and gains by the Lib Dems and SNP will mean that a small swing to the Tories will still leave them short of a majority. So there's a bit of leeway.
There will probably be enough polls published in the Sunday papers tomorrow that one of them, randomly, will have good news for Labour. Pretty dire if that's not the case.
If you look at the 2017 GE opinion poll tracker posted by AndyJS there is a distinct pattern.
That was a 7 week campaign. In week 2 Labour made a definite move up, and narrowed the gap. Then it was status quo, until early week 4 (after the Tory manifesto) when Labour surged again, and from then on they consistently got closer to TMay.
This is a shorter campaign. My reading therefore is that Labour need tangible narrowing very soon, and they need to do brilliantly in the debates. I can’t see either manifesto helping Labour so much, this time.
Tory Swinson decided to stand down in Beaconsfield to leave the way open to former Tory remainer Dominic Grieve. However, she's standing a candidate against remainer Labour MP Rosie Duffield who's majority is only 187 over the Tories. Senseless, until you realise #TorySwinsonIsATory
Swinson isn’t a Tory and corbyn is your problem not Swinson.
She certainly fooled me then, she sounds more Tory than the Tories to me.
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
I would be amazed if Phillips loses. I was born and bred in Birmingham and most of my family still live there (but not me). The attitude I hear again and again when talking politics is the old footie chant, 'He's (she) one of our own'. She will get votes simply for being an out and out Brummie - votes that no other candidate could take. It is not a Labour/Tory matter (although her willingness to attack Corbyn will not hurt). 15000 majority.
Jess Phillips would be a popular choice with the public but she needs to tone down the " it's all about me, me, me!
Doesnt seem to do political leaders any harm nowadays to be narcissists. Not saying she is one but voters seem to prefer personality over substance. And it doesnt even have to a principled, likeable or wise personality, just a clear personality.
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
Also, as noted in the article, Labour has been dropping to depths no main opposition has ever fallen to, with a low of 18% in a poll shortly after the Euros.
2. Yes, the Tories have weaknesses as well - though not as many to the same depth, I think.
3. Remain/Leave tribalism works *against* Labour. It is not in either of those camps and so will be squeezed.
1 yes they do. After all that flowing and dropping of votes they are still all but guaranteed masses and masses of seats. Not having as strong a floor as the once did doesnt change that it is strong - that's why the big two are the big two and likely will remain so.
2 possibly, but the point was why the tories are not 30 points ahead, so its irrelevant whether the tory flaws are more serious.
3 they are in the remain camp in hundreds of their seats and their local campaigns will say so. A cast iron remain lab mp will be ditched by remainers because the official position is more nuanced? It'll probably happen to a few, but boy that would be dumb and self defeating.
And 4 Brexit party. Again doesnt prevent victory but why they are not further ahead.
If the question was "why aren't the Tories 30 points ahead", the simple answer is that virtually no party is ever 30 points ahead. I think Blair is the only party leader to have ever scored 30-point leads or more?
How much of a bounce were you expecting given the Tories are already hitting 40+ in the polls?
2% or so. But of course zero now - or possibly even a drop due to the letdown. It's why I was rooting for SA despite being an avid patriot. Johnson cannot in fairness be blamed, he wasn't playing, he had no role in team selection, but since when has politics been fair? It was bad, it happened on his watch, there's an election on. About time he got unlucky because he's been getting all the breaks so far.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
So we are looking at a generation of lib dem control then?
Once the UK breaks-up - as it will - I can see the LDs in power in England for quite a while, yes.
No.
If UK continues it’s decline in the world, increasingly like a third world country with extremes between rich and poor and increased volatility in living standards in between those extremes, which seems almost certain considering post industrial with huge demographic time bomb, and how our cowardly safety first politics missed the bus transforming our economy and revolutionising our tax system, (death/dementia tax, HS2 anyone?) then it is this culture that will shape the politics. If this is the culture you won’t be able to escape it’s impact on politics drift away from centre governments to proper right left battle.
The liberal Tory is dead and isn’t coming back, nor any social democratic Blairism into Labour. The world has changed, this country has changed, there’s just no place for those things anymore.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
There would not have been even if we had won, after England won in 2003 Blair got no bounce in 2005
This is during an election not 2 years before. Totally different. Johnson and Cummings were counting on a win for England and they will be extremely worried (with good reason) that it did not transpire. Worse, we got hammered. How many seats will it cost the Cons? Obviously it's hard to be precise but I would estimate 5 to 7, which could be the difference between a Tory majority and a hung parliament.
What utter crap.
England were expected to lose to New Zealand in the semi final, they beat them under Boris as they beat Australia in the quarter final, even getting to the final was a bonus despite the loss.
Labour supporters praying for an England loss today to save Corbyn shows how desperate and weak they are now
Go lie down for a spell, you are getting very confused and emotional. I will let you into a secret to help you , the rugby had no connection whatsoever with the buffoon, even if he was replaced with a more intelligent cabbage , it still would not affect the rugby. Though given his form he will probably say England won really.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
Hurrah for Carrie and sensible popular policies. 😃.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
It'll destroy the vitally important gold plated Ferrari market!!
The VAT paid on one gold plated Ferrari is more tax than most people will pay in ten years.
Hardly fits in with the 'something must be done', listen to the left behind narrative does it?
Would love to see hundreds of more Ferrari’s bought bought by hundreds more super-rich. £40k at least VAT a time to fund all the lovely things government likes to spend money on. All from people who can afford it and want to be here.
No Ferrari’s? No problem. No more of that VAT and no more of that money for the treasury.
One Ferrari bought by an evil super rich person = 1 teacher a year. Or a policeman/woman. Or a nurse.
Well it's a view but today's defeat will not be in peoples minds when they cast their votes
Agreed. But as people keep pointing out (correctly IMO), Boris is a 'good time' sort of character. He's a feel good politician. Ergo the less good we feel the less potent his appeal. Hard to quantify, sure, I'll give you that.
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
So we are looking at a generation of lib dem control then?
Once the UK breaks-up - as it will - I can see the LDs in power in England for quite a while, yes.
No.
If UK continues it’s decline in the world, increasingly like a third world country with extremes between rich and poor and increased volatility in living standards in between those extremes, which seems almost certain considering post industrial with huge demographic time bomb, and how our cowardly safety first politics missed the bus transforming our economy and revolutionising our tax system, (death/dementia tax, HS2 anyone?) then it is this culture that will shape the politics. If this is the culture you won’t be able to escape it’s impact on politics drift away from centre governments to proper right left battle.
The liberal Tory is dead and isn’t coming back, nor any social democratic Blairism into Labour. The world has changed, this country has changed, there’s just no place for those things anymore.
Sad but true as of now. I hope it doesn't last too long.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
It also has to be remembered the result was not as good as the polling for the Tories. The Tories are fishing a fickle group of voters. The problem is they might not turn out...
The Conservatives' 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗿𝘆 pause of fracking is an election stunt to try and win a few votes.
Boris Johnson described fracking as ‘glorious news for humanity’. We cannot trust him.
Labour would ban fracking. @JeremyCorbyn on the right side (again!)
Jeremy Corbyn in 2015: When asked by the BBC whether harnessing more coal would mean reopening North pits, he said: “Where you can re-open pits, yes, and where you can do clean burn coal technology, yes.
“I think we can develop coal technology. Let's do so because energy prices around the world are going up. Open cast mining is not acceptable, deep mined coal is possible and is an alternative.”
Not his current view (I hope!) but it shows that everyone can change their minds on this as the evidence mounts up.
There would not have been even if we had won, after England won in 2003 Blair got no bounce in 2005
This is during an election not 2 years before. Totally different. Johnson and Cummings were counting on a win for England and they will be extremely worried (with good reason) that it did not transpire. Worse, we got hammered. How many seats will it cost the Cons? Obviously it's hard to be precise but I would estimate 5 to 7, which could be the difference between a Tory majority and a hung parliament.
What utter crap.
England were expected to lose to New Zealand in the semi final, they beat them under Boris as they beat Australia in the quarter final, even getting to the final was a bonus despite the loss.
Labour supporters praying for an England loss today to save Corbyn shows how desperate and weak they are now
Go lie down for a spell, you are getting very confused and emotional. I will let you into a secret to help you , the rugby had no connection whatsoever with the buffoon, even if he was replaced with a more intelligent cabbage , it still would not affect the rugby. Though given his form he will probably say England won really.
I do agree the Rugby will not affect the politics at all
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
Maybe he has written two newspaper columns on it? One to intensify fracking efforts and the other to withdraw or ban fracking!
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
You're comparing the Falklands War to a Rugby game!!! It's not even football!!!
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
It might be argued that there's some degree of difference between a Government sending a task force halfway around the world to fight a war (in which several thousand people were killed or injured) to recover territory conquered by a crazed military dictatorship, and a rugby match.
The Conservatives' 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗿𝘆 pause of fracking is an election stunt to try and win a few votes.
Boris Johnson described fracking as ‘glorious news for humanity’. We cannot trust him.
Labour would ban fracking. @JeremyCorbyn on the right side (again!)
It’s not a temporary pause, it’s over to scientific community to prove it’s safe, which no one ever thinks they will be able to.
It’s a thumbs up from voters to Boris/Carrie
I also think that the current justification for fracking isn't there, oil prices are low and don't look like going back up. Plus not enough of the research on it takes into account methane leakage from fracking sites and the effect on climate change.
Why the rush? I haven't seen JC threatening to bang them up instantaneously
They saw Ken Loach's new film and felt ashamed.
I gave some money to a woman this morning crying because she was hungry. I suspect she has learning difficulties as I have seen her before. It makes me really angry that an obviously vulnerable person is being ignored by the system. Meanwhile BJ priotises tax cuts for the rich...
Speculative perhaps, as so much is when it comes to election commentary 6 weeks out, but certainly not ridiculous. I could have gone further in postulating the downside to the Cons by bringing in the point that rugby union is the quintessential middle class sport in England. The people who follow it keenly are as voters disproportionately Con inclined. The negative impact on Con prospects could therefore be amplified.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
Foot being seen as almost as bad as Corbyn is today combined with the rise of the SNP were the major factors. OTOH had the Falklands been lost she would not has made it past ‘82.
The Times story on the Tory campaign sounds like it’s exactly what Boris needs and very promising. Bin no deal (“we will get our deal over the line in weeks and make Brexit go away”) and then move to popular policies (now 25000 police, tax cuts, and environmental approach, and a push on the NHS). Get it right and they think they can appeal to “soft” LibDems worries about a Revoke policy.
Coupled with Cummings not running the campaign it does sound like a sensible strategy.
The liberal Tory is dead and isn’t coming back, nor any social democratic Blairism into Labour. The world has changed, this country has changed, there’s just no place for those things anymore.
There is a place for them. Mainstream centrist parties like the Liberal Democrats and the SNP are now the repository of those votes. Of course, many people just want to vote for their tribe, but the longer this goes on the more voters
It'll destroy the vitally important gold plated Ferrari market!!
The VAT paid on one gold plated Ferrari is more tax than most people will pay in ten years.
Hardly fits in with the 'something must be done', listen to the left behind narrative does it?
Would love to see hundreds of more Ferrari’s bought bought by hundreds more super-rich. £40k at least VAT a time to fund all the lovely things government likes to spend money on. All from people who can afford it and want to be here.
No Ferrari’s? No problem. No more of that VAT and no more of that money for the treasury.
One Ferrari bought by an evil super rich person = 1 teacher a year. Or a policeman/woman. Or a nurse.
Double the tax on on gold plated ferraris then. Make it two nurses instead of one.
Speculative perhaps, as so much is when it comes to election commentary 6 weeks out, but certainly not ridiculous. I could have gone further in postulating the downside to the Cons by bringing in the point that rugby union is the quintessential middle class sport in England. The people who follow it keenly are as voters disproportionately Con inclined. The negative impact on Con prospects could therefore be amplified.
I am not convinced by the support offered for point 4, the proposition that the election is "far more likely" than GE2017 to be dominated by Brexit. There's traction for class. Put ultra-crudely, this is blame the rich versus blame the immigrants. As for leader ratings, how do respondents actually interpret the question they're asked? Probably some hear it as "Who would look better on a poster or a red carpet?" Johnson has a sharper brand for sure, and beards don't play well, but he's likely to trip up and be standing there all bluster and arrogance and nothing else. I'm no pollologist but if leader ratings have been so indicative then could it be because of a third factor? When have they not been indicative? What about the delta? What does that correlate with?
I wonder whether Dominic Cummings will still be calling the shots in the Tory campaign by the final week or even two days after the first head-to-head. Thinking of Stephen Bannon here.
England were expected to lose to New Zealand in the semi final, they beat them under Boris as they beat Australia in the quarter final, even getting to the final was a bonus despite the loss.
Labour supporters praying for an England loss today to save Corbyn shows how desperate and weak they are now
Catching up with the news today, the times have an interesting article on the Tory campaign. It looks as though we're dropping the threat of no deal from the manifesto. That would be a massive step in the right direction and prove all of those "moderate" Tories they were wrong to leave the party. If it's true I might actually get out and campaign. All of this quibbling over the Boris deal vs some future Labour deal has no cut through, a deal is a deal in the eyes of the majority of voters.
On the basis of a conservative majority, we will leave with a deal, what then for all of those "moderates" or self proclaimed one nation Tories who have abandoned the party on the idiotic idea that this is all some kind of cover to push through no deal? Will they come back or dig in and move on to some other kind of gripe?
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
Maybe he has written two newspaper columns on it? One to intensify fracking efforts and the other to withdraw or ban fracking!
I am not convinced by the support offered for point 4, the proposition that the election is "far more likely" than GE2017 to be dominated by Brexit. There's traction for class. Put ultra-crudely, this is blame the rich versus blame the immigrants. As for leader ratings, how do respondents actually interpret the question they're asked? Probably some hear it as "Who would look better on a poster or a red carpet?" Johnson has a sharper brand for sure, and beards don't play well, but he's likely to trip up and be standing there all bluster and arrogance and nothing else. I'm no pollologist but if leader ratings have been so indicative then could it be because of a third factor? When have they not been indicative? What about the delta? What does that correlate with?
I wonder whether Dominic Cummings will still be calling the shots in the Tory campaign by the final week or even two days after the first head-to-head. Thinking of Stephen Bannon here.
I guess it will depend on whether he's had the long delayed operation or not.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
I ask you seriously if you were around in 1983? The election was 100% about the 'Falkland Factor' whether it was mentioned or not. It was the whole backdrop to the election. This one will hopefully be about Johnson's character but it's too early to know.
Speculative perhaps, as so much is when it comes to election commentary 6 weeks out, but certainly not ridiculous. I could have gone further in postulating the downside to the Cons by bringing in the point that rugby union is the quintessential middle class sport in England. The people who follow it keenly are as voters disproportionately Con inclined. The negative impact on Con prospects could therefore be amplified.
you're trolling 😉
Indeed. Rugby Union is more the sport of Remainer Tories.
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
His flexibility means he is a much better campaigner than May
It'll destroy the vitally important gold plated Ferrari market!!
The VAT paid on one gold plated Ferrari is more tax than most people will pay in ten years.
What? 458s were about 180k new. The wrap will have been 2-4k.
Average salary = £28k per year.
Tax paid on that = £3100 per year.
VAT element of 180k = £30k
So about 10 years of income tax for one Ferrari.
The last figs I can find for Ferrari sales in UK are for 2014 - 677. On that basis, getting 7000 people into work paying tax on an average salary would be more profitable for the exchequer than the whole Ferrari market (ignoring the fact that the workers also pay VAT, duty and other taxes).
It'll destroy the vitally important gold plated Ferrari market!!
The VAT paid on one gold plated Ferrari is more tax than most people will pay in ten years.
What? 458s were about 180k new. The wrap will have been 2-4k.
Average salary = £28k per year.
Tax paid on that = £3100 per year.
VAT element of 180k = £30k
So about 10 years of income tax for one Ferrari.
The last figs I can find for Ferrari sales in UK are for 2014 - 677. On that basis, getting 7000 people into work paying tax on an average salary would be more profitable for the exchequer than the whole Ferrari market (ignoring the fact that the workers also pay VAT, duty and other taxes).
The Conservatives' 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗿𝘆 pause of fracking is an election stunt to try and win a few votes.
Boris Johnson described fracking as ‘glorious news for humanity’. We cannot trust him.
Labour would ban fracking. @JeremyCorbyn on the right side (again!)
It’s not a temporary pause, it’s over to scientific community to prove it’s safe, which no one ever thinks they will be able to.
It’s a thumbs up from voters to Boris/Carrie
And of course a moratorium will see any investment fall to zero
It is the end of fracking but on the science not the politics (though that helps)
Swansea Bay tidal lagoon next please Boris
They certainly need to say that they will revisit the decision. And in light of the decision to stall the decision and hopefully back off from more nuclear at Wylfa B in Anglesey, if it is competitve on price (which it is) they will be minded to go ahead.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
I ask you seriously if you were around in 1983? The election was 100% about the 'Falkland Factor' whether it was mentioned or not. It was the whole backdrop to the election. This one will hopefully be about Johnson's character but it's too early to know.
i was around in 1983 and well above voting age (sadly).
It is an old canard that the Falklands won Thatcher that election. Foot was unpopular and unelectable, the economy was recovering and the Tories were broadly united.
With or without the Falklands Thatcher would have won.
And Sky moved on and featuring the conservatives moratorium on fracking and how popular it will be in the North of England. Yougov poll shows 67% oppose fracking
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
It’s not dying any time soon, as it produces the cheapest fossil fuel on the planet. But will quite probably not happen in the UK at all now.
Fantastic result in the rugby! When I first did a job there in 1993 out of a crew of 40 we had one black person who was assistant to the caterer. This is just a brilliant result for a country that I wish all the best for.
As for England we are spared the sight of Johnson greeting the English team at Downing Street would have made most decent people want to retch.
How embarrassing for you to actually put your bittenress in print.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
I ask you seriously if you were around in 1983? The election was 100% about the 'Falkland Factor' whether it was mentioned or not. It was the whole backdrop to the election. This one will hopefully be about Johnson's character but it's too early to know.
i was around in 1983 and well above voting age (sadly).
It is an old canard that the Falklands won Thatcher that election. Foot was unpopular and unelectable, the economy was recovering and the Tories were broadly united.
With or without the Falklands Thatcher would have won.
If the Falklands hadn’t been invaded then yes, I think you are correct. If the had been lost then I think it could have been very different.
How can Jo Swinson say she will be PM and stand down candidates in a GE
Last night's 5 live and question time were not at all kind on 'revoke'
Not sure it is as good a policy as she thinks it is
Question time is full of party hacks. No party fields a full slate of candidates, only the tories of the main parties, field any candidates in NI and they dont have full coverage.
LD voters are quite happy with working together with other people they sometimes disagree with, a skill seemingly lost on the authoritarian leaderships of Bluekip and Corbynite Labour.
These things DO make a difference. Mrs Thatcher's Falklands bounce is a great example. If that contest had gone horribly wrong, like this one did today, do you not think there would have been a polling impact in the opposite direction?
If you watch the BBC's 1983 election night show, the Falklands War was mentioned once during a 12 hour programme.
I ask you seriously if you were around in 1983? The election was 100% about the 'Falkland Factor' whether it was mentioned or not. It was the whole backdrop to the election. This one will hopefully be about Johnson's character but it's too early to know.
I was a student during the 1983 election and I agree that the War was a backdrop. It didn't help that Michael Foot was portrayed by the Murdoch media as the yellow bellied pacifist. Also I remember I remember the welsh windbag with his facile comment about "guts on goose green.." which didnt help.
Funny how all the disgruntled Tories are flocking to the Lib Dems, they see it as the other Tory party.
It’s not strange at all. Liberal democratic has liberal in title, it’s obvious home for liberal Tory’s, the type who would stand on back benches quoting Sybil.
‘Basil! BASIL!”
No. This:
Say what you like, our Queen reigns over the greatest nation that ever existed. Now let’s get brexit done, we’ll be okay.
Which nation for she reigns over Two nations; between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other's habits, thoughts, and feelings, as if they were dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of different planets; who are formed by a different breeding, are fed by a different food, are ordered by different manners, and are not governed by the same laws. The RICH and the POOR.
Time to take sides and Forget about December election settling anything at all, we are All in for a long long battle.
On the one hand, we should welcome greater voter participation.
On the other, if they all then troop down to the polling stations and shore up the Far Left vote it could be a catastrophe.
The overriding priority in this election is neither the EU nor the survival of the Union - it's keeping Corbyn and McDonnell away from the levers of power. Every single gain made from Labour is, to a greater or lesser extent, to be welcomed.
How can Jo Swinson say she will be PM and stand down candidates in a GE
Last night's 5 live and question time were not at all kind on 'revoke'
Not sure it is as good a policy as she thinks it is
It will be fascinating to see whether this policy even works. (I am against if for other reasons, as reducing voter choice and being an abuse of the system). But, I doubt it even really works.
James Kanagasooriam makes the same point I have been repeatedly making.
The Plaid Cymru vote is 36 per cent leave (according to JK), yet it is confronted with a hysterical leadership who out-Meeks Meeks on the European Union.
I think the Plaid Cymru vote will be substantially down in Wales.
I don't see many LibDems in Wales actually voting for Plaid Cymru. I very much doubt if any of the English LibDems (the OllyTs and GardenWalkers) who over-populate this blog would actually -- when it comes down to it -- vote for Plaid Cymru if they lived in Wales.
And I can't see many Plaid Cymru voters going for the LibDems.
I have no problem with individual voters, voting tactically or exchanging votes, if that is what they wish to do.
But, actual reduction of voter choice is really pernicious -- the LibDems should be ashamed, but of course they have no shame.
Comments
England were expected to lose to New Zealand in the semi final, they beat them under Boris as they beat Australia in the quarter final, even getting to the final was a bonus despite the loss.
Labour supporters praying for an England loss today to save Corbyn shows how desperate and weak they are now
Those on the remain side can of course point to the huge problem the UK has had in negotiating Brexit (which has Article 50 to supposedly make the process work) and ask how much harder leaving the 300 year old union would be, particularly if the rUK were not cooperating. An easy Brexit would make the SNP’s aim much easier to sell.
https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1190372055843295237
There was an example of just such a biddable idiot as this who took the time to call into a show I was listening to on 5 Live earlier this week. There are an awful lot of them out there.
Next name to be crossed of........Kamala Harris.
Workington Man Vs Workington Woman Voting Intention:
CON: 49% || 39%
LAB: 27% || 42%
BXP: 14% || 13%
LDM: 7% || 3%
GRN: 2% || 1%
These are sub-samples so large MoE but thought it would be interesting given the widely discussed 'Workington Man' demographic.
That was a 7 week campaign. In week 2 Labour made a definite move up, and narrowed the gap. Then it was status quo, until early week 4 (after the Tory manifesto) when Labour surged again, and from then on they consistently got closer to TMay.
This is a shorter campaign. My reading therefore is that Labour need tangible narrowing very soon, and they need to do brilliantly in the debates. I can’t see either manifesto helping Labour so much, this time.
Boris Johnson described fracking as ‘glorious news for humanity’. We cannot trust him.
Labour would ban fracking. @JeremyCorbyn on the right side (again!)
It was mentioned last night that Carrie is very much into green issues and it is believed she is behind this and other green policies yet to be announced
*well, a bet is a bet, and I have always loved Africa.
Vote Boris, get Carrie. Stick that on the bus.
Workington Voting Intention:
CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 34% (-17)
BXP: 13% (+13)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (+2)
Via @Survation, 30-31 Oct.
Changes w/ GE2017.
No Ferrari’s? No problem. No more of that VAT and no more of that money for the treasury.
One Ferrari bought by an evil super rich person = 1 teacher a year. Or a policeman/woman. Or a nurse.
It’s a thumbs up from voters to Boris/Carrie
The fracking ban is really clever politics.
Fracking is dying anyway. Renewables have suddenly reached critical mass, they are about to make fracking in the UK pointlessly difficult and pricey.
An easy goal for Boris to score.
Workington is less than half the constituency.
“I think we can develop coal technology. Let's do so because energy prices around the world are going up. Open cast mining is not acceptable, deep mined coal is possible and is an alternative.”
Not his current view (I hope!) but it shows that everyone can change their minds on this as the evidence mounts up.
The Tories are up 3% in Workington but the Brexit Party up 13% on that poll and Labour down 17%.
(Though of course the Tories have increased the minimum wage too)
I mean, really.
https://twitter.com/iwightnews/status/1190577399664185345
Coupled with Cummings not running the campaign it does sound like a sensible strategy.
https://twitter.com/norsel1on/status/1190538265276952576?s=20
It is the end of fracking but on the science not the politics (though that helps)
Swansea Bay tidal lagoon next please Boris
Tax paid on that = £3100 per year.
VAT element of 180k = £30k
So about 10 years of income tax for one Ferrari.
I wonder whether Dominic Cummings will still be calling the shots in the Tory campaign by the final week or even two days after the first head-to-head. Thinking of Stephen Bannon here.
Last night's 5 live and question time were not at all kind on 'revoke'
Not sure it is as good a policy as she thinks it is
That comment really takes the biscuit.
Talk about political partisanship gorn mad.
LibDems = party of second-rate loser Tories
On the basis of a conservative majority, we will leave with a deal, what then for all of those "moderates" or self proclaimed one nation Tories who have abandoned the party on the idiotic idea that this is all some kind of cover to push through no deal? Will they come back or dig in and move on to some other kind of gripe?
Exhibt A: TSE......
"Ban fracking in UK, Jeremy Corbyn urges Boris Johnson".
It sounds more like any old crap while Cummings holds back his best shots until he sees the whites in Labour eyes.
On that basis, getting 7000 people into work paying tax on an average salary would be more profitable for the exchequer than the whole Ferrari market (ignoring the fact that the workers also pay VAT, duty and other taxes).
It is an old canard that the Falklands won Thatcher that election. Foot was unpopular and unelectable, the economy was recovering and the Tories were broadly united.
With or without the Falklands Thatcher would have won.
LD voters are quite happy with working together with other people they sometimes disagree with, a skill seemingly lost on the authoritarian leaderships of Bluekip and Corbynite Labour.
I reregistered to vote just in case so I will be in those stats (not 18-34 alas) but not a new registration.
‘Basil! BASIL!”
No. This:
Say what you like, our Queen reigns over the greatest nation that ever existed. Now let’s get brexit done, we’ll be okay.
Which nation for she reigns over Two nations; between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other's habits, thoughts, and feelings, as if they were dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of different planets; who are formed by a different breeding, are fed by a different food, are ordered by different manners, and are not governed by the same laws. The RICH and the POOR.
Time to take sides and Forget about December election settling anything at all, we are All in for a long long battle.
On the other, if they all then troop down to the polling stations and shore up the Far Left vote it could be a catastrophe.
The overriding priority in this election is neither the EU nor the survival of the Union - it's keeping Corbyn and McDonnell away from the levers of power. Every single gain made from Labour is, to a greater or lesser extent, to be welcomed.
James Kanagasooriam makes the same point I have been repeatedly making.
The Plaid Cymru vote is 36 per cent leave (according to JK), yet it is confronted with a hysterical leadership who out-Meeks Meeks on the European Union.
I think the Plaid Cymru vote will be substantially down in Wales.
I don't see many LibDems in Wales actually voting for Plaid Cymru. I very much doubt if any of the English LibDems (the OllyTs and GardenWalkers) who over-populate this blog would actually -- when it comes down to it -- vote for Plaid Cymru if they lived in Wales.
And I can't see many Plaid Cymru voters going for the LibDems.
I have no problem with individual voters, voting tactically or exchanging votes, if that is what they wish to do.
But, actual reduction of voter choice is really pernicious -- the LibDems should be ashamed, but of course they have no shame.