Watching England play football or rugby always, for those of us old enough to remember it, has echoes of all those years watching Tim Henman plug away fruitlessly at Wimbledon.
He was actually very good, and you always felt he had some mathematical chance of winning the wretched thing, but in practice he always, ultimately, came up against someone who was better on the day and fell flat on his face. Most painful for him, of course, but not much fun for those of us watching either.
Oh well, such is life. At least an unwanted runners-up medal is a considerable improvement on getting knocked out in the group stage of your own bloody tournament.
Lol. This is slightly overdone given that this is officially - according to boffins at the Times (£) - the best year for English sport. Cricket, F1, club football, athletics, rugby final, etc etc.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
I'd buy that. Its the same situation as 2017 with shy labour voters, and likely won't work as well, do its whether Boris can ensure he maintains initial polling at May levels or reduces by less than labour.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
Ironic that two of the three 'likes' for that post comes fom people who don't live in the UK. I feel the same when I'm in france. Boris stops being the repellant amoral disloyal opportunistic piece of work that know him to be and he just becomes a rather trivial buffoon.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
For Wales, I'd highlight the loss of Carwyn Jones as a serious problem for Labour, he is irretrievably damaged by the Sargeant Affair.
Mark Drakeford is a poor substitute.
Labour did especially well in Wales in 2017, retaking 3 seats. The most astonishing to me was the running of Crabb so close in Presell Pembrokeshire, (a pretty affluent constituency for Wales).
If the Workington polling is right, then Labour losses in Wales could run into 2 digits.
There will be another Welsh barometer poll out soon.
In the most recent one, Roger Awan-Scully noted that using UNS, Labour would lose ten seats. But he also (rightly, IMO) noted that UNS is not likely to be a good guide, though failed to suggest a replacement.
FWIW, I think it'd be worse for Labour than UNS suggests. When a party collapses, it loses most in the seats where it has most, almost by definition - if you're down by 25% overall, you *can't* be down by that much in seats where you won less than 25% to begin with, and you'll keep a core vote even in places where you won up to, say, 30%. That means you'll see even bigger losses in seats where you had 35%+ i.e. the ones you won.
If Labour Leavers are deserting Labour (as Workington polling suggests), then it will be grim for Labour in Wales.
Plaid Cymru will find it hard going as well, cajoled into their ultra-Remain stance by their LibDem so-called "friends".
Wales elected 2 Brexit MEPs out of 4.
As I can't see TBP actually taking any Welsh Westminster seats, there would be appear to be only one beneficiary possible from all this.
Also, as noted in the article, Labour has been dropping to depths no main opposition has ever fallen to, with a low of 18% in a poll shortly after the Euros.
2. Yes, the Tories have weaknesses as well - though not as many to the same depth, I think.
3. Remain/Leave tribalism works *against* Labour. It is not in either of those camps and so will be squeezed.
1 yes they do. After all that flowing and dropping of votes they are still all but guaranteed masses and masses of seats. Not having as strong a floor as the once did doesnt change that it is strong - that's why the big two are the big two and likely will remain so.
2 possibly, but the point was why the tories are not 30 points ahead, so its irrelevant whether the tory flaws are more serious.
3 they are in the remain camp in hundreds of their seats and their local campaigns will say so. A cast iron remain lab mp will be ditched by remainers because the official position is more nuanced? It'll probably happen to a few, but boy that would be dumb and self defeating.
And 4 Brexit party. Again doesnt prevent victory but why they are not further ahead.
To be much further ahead is near impossible given the Remain/Leave split in the country. Labour MPs spend a lot of time tweeting bad things about JC yet they're all now campaigning vigorously to make him PM knowing full well his stance on britain's enemies/anti-semitism and his hostility to the EU. Not a single one of them can be trusted to do the right thing - they have cosnsistently failed to do so since the last election.
Split loyalties in my household, my wife is South African. My 5 year old daughter has chosen to support 'Africa' like mummy, the 3 year old has chosen to support 'daddies team' . . . but gone off to watch Toy Story as she's not interested in the rugby.
Hopefully the second half will be different as to be fair apart from us nearly getting a try over that 25-phase period, I think SA deserve the halftime lead. Hopefully the second half is better for England.
My son is the only person interested in this game - he is more of a football fan but loves any sport and always roots for England. I'm out and about taking the daughters to various activities but doubt I'd be watching anyway, I have no idea how rugby works, they always seem to be stopping to engage in some kind of group hug or kicking the weird shaped ball over the top of the weird shaped goals. Plus I'm Scottish!
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
No, Labour is heading for its biggest trouncing in almost a century, with the Tories, the LDs, the Brexit Party and the SNP all taking turns to feed on its carcass after it stuck with Corbyn.
I reckon 20 to 25% voteshare and maybe even under 200 seats
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
No, Labour is heading for its biggest trouncing in almost a century, with the Tories, the LDs, the Brexit Party and the SNP all taking turns to feed on its carcass after it stuck with Corbyn.
I reckon 20 to 25% voteshare and maybe even under 200 seats
If LAB go below 25% they will get fewer than 200 seats 😊
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
It depends on whether the labour party can offer something for more than the hard left like it is at the moment.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
It should be, but much will depend on how Labour reacts.
The rather alarming truth is, bad as Corbyn is, he is certainly in the top three among left-wing candidates in terms of ability and the two ahead of him - Macdonnell and Trickett - are not much younger than he is.
Can you, for instance, imagine how Labour will fare under a woman so incompetent her own colleagues nicknamed her Rebecca Wrong Daily?
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The combination of Brexit smashing the Union, the loss of Ruth Davidson and the Tories rampant English nationalism is going to hit tactical voting for SCON. SLAB and SLD voters switching that way are going to be heavily depleted.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
It should be, but much will depend on how Labour reacts.
The rather alarming truth is, bad as Corbyn is, he is certainly in the top three among left-wing candidates in terms of ability and the two ahead of him - Macdonnell and Trickett - are not much younger than he is.
Can you, for instance, imagine how Labour will fare under a woman so incompetent her own colleagues nicknamed her Rebecca Wrong Daily?
Probably none too badly. Most Labour voters would still vote Labour if it were led by an actual circus clown, complete with red nose and squirty flower.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
It should be, but much will depend on how Labour reacts.
The rather alarming truth is, bad as Corbyn is, he is certainly in the top three among left-wing candidates in terms of ability and the two ahead of him - Macdonnell and Trickett - are not much younger than he is.
Can you, for instance, imagine how Labour will fare under a woman so incompetent her own colleagues nicknamed her Rebecca Wrong Daily?
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
If they're 'playing the advantage' does the advantage carry on forever until the ball is lost? Seems like even if its 10 minutes later they're still playing the advantage.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
Id question the sincerity. The issue were crystal clear at the time and people rebelled on both sides, unless she is saying she is really dumb - which I've not heard is the case- she knew what she was doing and what was risked when she didnt vote for it.
The refusal of many Remainers to compromise on a softer Brexit, and instead go hell for leather on a second referendum, is a major reason why we are now facing a super hard Brexit.
Or the refusal of BREXIT purists to compromise on a softer Brexit, and instead go hell for leather on a No Deal, is a major reason why we are now facing a GE that could end in Remain
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
When a leader resigns, or is deposed after defeat they do not get to appoint their successor. We see in the reselections (or lack of) that the Corbynits are a vocal minority, but not the power that are sometimes made out to be. Phillips' charisma and honesty will play well in the hustings.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
When a leader resigns, or is deposed after defeat they do not get to appoint their successor. We see in the reselections (or lack of) that the Corbynits are a vocal minority, but not the power that are sometimes made out to be. Phillips' charisma and honesty will play well in the hustings.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
This isn’t election on brexit deal, just WA and PD. The next phase of negotiation is even more hard ball, more controversial decisions needed to achieve agreement, more brexit brexit all over news, for years to come. Selling this as end to it and can move on with domestic agenda could soon be exposed as a whopping lie.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
The Tories were in power for 18 years when they lost in 1997 then out of power for 13 years, simply the swing of the pendulum mainly.
However cultural change means the Tories vote is more working class than it used to be, though most of its Remainer middle class vote has gone LD not Corbyn Labour, it is Labour with the real problem, losing its working class vote to the Tories and Brexit Party but failing to win middle class voters who are going LD or Green
Does it count as unpatriotic to bet on the Springboks?
Probably very sensible based on what we've seen so far. England are extraordinarily lucky to be 3-3 at this point.
On topic, I do hope that Mr Herdson is right - but I'm desperately afraid that Labour will be rescued by an accumulation of their urban rotten boroughs and an enormous robot vote.
The problem for Labour is its 'robot vote' is smaller too with Leavers going Brexit Party or even Tory and Remainers going LD or Green
The opinion polls (which are about as reliable as Mystic Meg) suggest that Labour's support has splintered badly. I don't buy it.
A large slice of those claiming that they have deserted to other parties will be lying out of embarrassment, and another large slice will be kidding themselves that they've changed sides - and will robot vote for Labour anyway after they've hovered the stubby pencil over the ballot paper in the polling booth for a few seconds.
I'm not saying that Labour will poll as strongly as in 2017 - that seems improbable - but, sadly, they won't be routed either. I reckon they'll poll somewhere in the ballpark of 32-35%, and pick up 220-230 seats.
No, Labour is heading for its biggest trouncing in almost a century, with the Tories, the LDs, the Brexit Party and the SNP all taking turns to feed on its carcass after it stuck with Corbyn.
I reckon 20 to 25% voteshare and maybe even under 200 seats
If LAB go below 25% they will get fewer than 200 seats 😊
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
Yes, of the two Phillips is the one who could revive Labour. Rayner wouldn’t.
I rate Rayner, and she is much brighter and cannier than she first appears. It is very unwise to confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Not true. It is the most likely way, but there is also the possibility that in the Highlands voters are deserting the SNP masked by a further trend towards them in the central belt.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The combination of Brexit smashing the Union, the loss of Ruth Davidson and the Tories rampant English nationalism is going to hit tactical voting for SCON. SLAB and SLD voters switching that way are going to be heavily depleted.
The latest Scotland only poll from Panelbase has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than they got from 1997 to 2017 in Scotland even before Brexit
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Yes, I would certainly tactically vote LD there to beat Blackford and the SNP (it was Charles Kennedy's seat until 2015)
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
Yes, of the two Phillips is the one who could revive Labour. Rayner wouldn’t.
I rate Rayner, and she is much brighter and cannier than she first appears. It is very unwise to confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence.
I don’t think she’s unintelligent at all. But she is compromised by her close association with Corbyn.
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
I don't think the support for Corbyn is automatically transferable to whoever Corbyn/momentum endorses (assuming the far-left in Labour can unite around a single candidate anyway).
Jess has the advantage of being very effective when she's sticking it to the Tories and as long as she doesn't go all Liz Kendall she could win support from current supporters of Corbyn.
Ground game update Tories attempted to canvas us but I was out and other half asleep I think. First time I've got a "missed you" from any political party anyway
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Tactical SLD voters who liked Ruth coming home. Seems very possible to me, but I don't know the area.
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
Yes, of the two Phillips is the one who could revive Labour. Rayner wouldn’t.
I rate Rayner, and she is much brighter and cannier than she first appears. It is very unwise to confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence.
I am not convinced, looking at the utter shambles that is Labour’s education policy, that I agree.
That said, she has some smart ideas on lifelong learning. I just worry the way she wants to go about implementing them would eviscerate the rest of the system, particularly universities.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Not true. It is the most likely way, but there is also the possibility that in the Highlands voters are deserting the SNP masked by a further trend towards them in the central belt.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Not true. It is the most likely way, but there is also the possibility that in the Highlands voters are deserting the SNP masked by a further trend towards them in the central belt.
That is a fantasy
Why? Are you saying the Highlands with its huge number of English expats is a fertile hunting ground for the SNP?
In any case, I was saying it’s a possible alternative, not that it is what’s happening.
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long Bailey opposition government than Owen Jones clone Pidcock. What does this opposition have to do to win power? Maybe nothing, if the government parties ratings go through the floor. And the way Cummings and Boris have gone about it since the summer it is easy to imagine a Boris majority government becoming unpopular in coming years, trying to live up to the promise and the hype, not just of brexit but their one nation domestic agenda too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
The Tories were in power for 18 years when they lost in 1997z then out of power for 13 years, simply the swing of the pendulum mainly.
However cultural change means the Tories vote is more working class than it used to be, though most of its Remainer middle class vote has gone LD not Corbyn Labour, it is Labour with the real problem, losing its working class vote to the Tories and Brexit Party but failing to win middle class voters who are going LD or Green
In the 60s and 70s the Labour Party was just as popular with students, academics and radicals as it is today. The difference is that back then the working-classes were also solidly behind Labour, so you had a wide coalition between the radicals and the traditional working-classes. In 1966, for instance, Labour won most working-class seats but they were also able to win seats like Hampstead. That helps to explain why Labour were in power for most of the time between 1964 and 1979.
I think the next leader of Lab will be Angela Rayner or Jess Philipps.
Rayner’s not much cop, and Philipps isn’t a certainty to hold her seat (although nor is she especially likely to lose it).
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
Yes, of the two Phillips is the one who could revive Labour. Rayner wouldn’t.
I rate Rayner, and she is much brighter and cannier than she first appears. It is very unwise to confuse lack of formal education with lack of intelligence.
I don’t think she’s unintelligent at all. But she is compromised by her close association with Corbyn.
Close enough to be on the front bench, but not too close so uncontaminated by the antisemitism. A good compromise candidate.
Moving on from the rugby, are there not any polls today?
I’ve switched to Thomas the Tank Engine with my daughter.
I really hate watching England. Always let you down at the critical moment and simply can’t handle pressure in any sport.
Fucking pathetic.
Well deserved win to SA.
Have to admit, I wish I'd been on here earlier and said the same thing as I said to my husband - i.e. all things being equal England ought to win, BUT it depends which version of England turns up. Ho-hum.
He's now switched the TV over to the WTA Tour Finals, out of concern for my blood pressure.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
Not true, in Scotland the LDs hate the SNP even more than the Tories and will still tactically vote Tory against the SNP if the LDs have no chance
"We hate you and despise you, you treacherous quislings, now vote for us" is not going to be a compelling sales pitch by the Tories to Remain supporters anywhere.
In England and Wales maybe, in Scotland though the SNP are even more nationalist than the Tories and Scottish LDs tend to be more rural than English LDs and more likely to vote Tory, even if only tactically. Scottish Tories are more pro Union than pro Brexit too
The only way for the Lib Dems to be 7poibts behind Blackford is if voters who voted Conservative in the last election, where the conservative came 2nd are now voting for the Lib Dem, who came third.
Not true. It is the most likely way, but there is also the possibility that in the Highlands voters are deserting the SNP masked by a further trend towards them in the central belt.
That is a fantasy
Why? Are you saying the Highlands with its huge number of English expats is a fertile hunting ground for the SNP?
In any case, I was saying it’s a possible alternative, not that it is what’s happening.
Surprise you how many English support the SNP and growing
I don’t think the Conservatives (can we still call them that?) are complacent at all, HS2 and Fracking cancelled, bigger splurge on NHS, Working poor and police than Labour can find the money for, AND tax cuts, they are throwing the kitchen sink at it.
One downside of over promising to get an election is under delivering the other side of it. Where is all the money coming from to pay for all of this whilst smoothing brexit change at same time?
This is my point, do all this to prevent a corbynista government? It could guarantee a corbynista government definitely happens, next time.
If the Tories win a majority this time Corbyn Labour will be crushed, if they stick with another Corbynista or with Corbyn the LDs (maybe under Chuka) will overtake them as the main anti Tory party so there will be no Corbynista Government, there may not even be a Corbynista Leader of the Opposition
Well we disagree again. 🙂
Two things this election is supposed to put to bed. Brexit. And threat of Corbyn government. It does neither.
If Corbyn stands down it’s more likely a Long a too.
It is hard to see what the Tories have to offer "Workington Man" post Brexit. This may be a cursed election victory like 1992, that leads to the Tories being in opposition for a generation.
The Tories were in power for 18 years when they lost in 1997z then out of power for 13 years, simply the swing of the pendulum mainly.
However cultural change means the Tories vote is more working class than it used to be, though most of its Remainer middle class vote has gone LD not Corbyn Labour, it is Labour with the real problem, losing its working class vote to the Tories and Brexit Party but failing to win middle class voters who are going LD or Green
In the 60s and 70s the Labour Party was just as popular with students, academics and radicals as it is today. The difference is that back then the working-classes were also solidly behind Labour, so you had a wide coalition between the radicals and the traditional working-classes. In 1966, for instance, Labour won most working-class seats but they were also able to win seats like Hampstead. That helps to explain why Labour were in power for most of the time between 1964 and 1979.
Now Labour are losing working class seats like Workington to the Tories and the LDs may soon win seats like Hampstead as they did in the European Parliament elections
Comments
England 2nd half = Boris 2019
Plaid Cymru will find it hard going as well, cajoled into their ultra-Remain stance by their LibDem so-called "friends".
Wales elected 2 Brexit MEPs out of 4.
As I can't see TBP actually taking any Welsh Westminster seats, there would be appear to be only one beneficiary possible from all this.
Tory MPs on a reduced and split opposition.
I reckon 20 to 25% voteshare and maybe even under 200 seats
The rather alarming truth is, bad as Corbyn is, he is certainly in the top three among left-wing candidates in terms of ability and the two ahead of him - Macdonnell and Trickett - are not much younger than he is.
Can you, for instance, imagine how Labour will fare under a woman so incompetent her own colleagues nicknamed her Rebecca Wrong Daily?
'England have got to start cheating in that scrum. Whatever it takes. '
Devastating.
More seriously of course she has not slavishly subscribed to the cult of the Dear Leader.
#SuperJo
Not sure about that one. Difficult to think up awesome puns while at a departure gate.
However cultural change means the Tories vote is more working class than it used to be, though most of its Remainer middle class vote has gone LD not Corbyn Labour, it is Labour with the real problem, losing its working class vote to the Tories and Brexit Party but failing to win middle class voters who are going LD or Green
Jess has the advantage of being very effective when she's sticking it to the Tories and as long as she doesn't go all Liz Kendall she could win support from current supporters of Corbyn.
Tories attempted to canvas us but I was out and other half asleep I think. First time I've got a "missed you" from any political party anyway
....yep.
First time Saffers will have scored a try in winning the World Cup.
That said, she has some smart ideas on lifelong learning. I just worry the way she wants to go about implementing them would eviscerate the rest of the system, particularly universities.
2nd half Johnson.
In any case, I was saying it’s a possible alternative, not that it is what’s happening.
I really hate watching England. Always let you down at the critical moment and simply can’t handle pressure in any sport.
Fucking pathetic.
Well deserved win to SA.
Plus of course we won the cricket world cup only a few months ago and I never expected us to get to the Rugby final anyway
He's now switched the TV over to the WTA Tour Finals, out of concern for my blood pressure.