HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.
We should find out quite soon after the election.
Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!
However, it is difficult
Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.
Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?
It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.
Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?
There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.
As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.
If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.
My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it
The point is not you will be catching trains on HS2. The point is that with the capacity freed up Leicester can have an improved service to Birmingham, Derby and possibly direct to London while the Leeds/London or Leeds/Birmingham expresses go elsewhere.
Currently Leicester to Bham New St takes an hour for 40 miles, so nearly as long as HS2 from London. I cannot see that changing, and it highlights how Londoncentric the whole network is. Lines linking regional centres are pisspoor, unless the lines are also the main line to London.
Currently we have 2 trains per hour taking 70 min from Leicester to St Pancras. That is plenty.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
But this election will be decided in Tory v Labour marginals.
Only if seats that traditionally were not Tory v Lib Dem marginals don’t become them.
A lot of the traditional Con v Lib Dem battlegrounds are probably gone for good now, for the Lib Dems. I don't think they're coming back in places like Torbay or North Devon, or Somerton & Frome, as these are all anti-EU constituencies.
But, there are potential gains for the Lib Dems in Stockbroker Belt constituencies, like Guildford, Cheadle, Winchester, and some new seats may come into play. The danger, as @Alistair Meeks pointed out, however, is winning lots of strong second places.
If that's true, that makes betting on Con retention iof Dorset West at 2/5 a nice and very safe return.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
A commendably honest post. Beating the centre-left has always been the Corbynista priority. If that means right-wing Tory governments, so be it. The two issues yet to be sorted are these: 1. There is no obvious replacement for Corbyn from the far-left. 2. Not one Labour MP has been deselected. It will be interesting to see what the PLP looks like post-election. And whether Labour members will tolerate an ongoing Corbyn leadership.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Thanks. I don't think I'd be so brazen as to claim such tips are bets of the day, but I'll try and flag them more clearly next time.
HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.
We should find out quite soon after the election.
Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!
However, it is difficult
Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.
Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?
It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.
Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?
There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.
As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.
If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.
My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it
The point is not you will be catching trains on HS2. The point is that with the capacity freed up Leicester can have an improved service to Birmingham, Derby and possibly direct to London while the Leeds/London or Leeds/Birmingham expresses go elsewhere.
Currently Leicester to Bham New St takes an hour for 40 miles, so nearly as long as HS2 from London. I cannot see that changing, and it highlights how Londoncentric the whole network is. Lines linking regional centres are pisspoor, unless the lines are also the main line to London.
Currently we have 2 trains per hour taking 70 min from Leicester to St Pancras. That is plenty.
So to be clear - you’re saying we shouldn’t free up capacity on local railway networks because doing so will make no diffference?
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Wakefield was ripe for plucking last time. I even said to David Herdson that if the Tories failed to take it they would have had a very poor night.
HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.
We should find out quite soon after the election.
Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!
However, it is difficult for a very large number of reasons to see anything major being changed. The Leeds route might be delayed, but ultimately the situation from Birmingham to London is (a) at crisis point in terms of capacity and (b) the new lines are already under construction, and the lines into Curzon Street and Euston pretty much have to go ahead whether high speed or not. In which case, why not build the rest (which is a minority of the actual cost) too?
But there are for some reason a lot of people - weirdly, many of them totally unaffected either way - who have made this totemic, so it isn’t something either Johnson or Corbyn will want to discuss while grubbing, oops, campaigning for votes.
and if you need to build a new railway, why not build it to European gauge so double decker can run and build to high speed standard as the cot difference I marginal and it make perfect sense to separate slow and fast services on the railway.
If I had to put money on it there will be timetable changes, elements moved to NPR but yes, ultimately I cannot imagine it won't eventually get built in full, no doubt one day continuing onwards to Scotland.
Be 22nd century if ever before it gets to Scotland. Still think of all those benefits we are promised we will get from HS2, I can hardly wait.
HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.
We should find out quite soon after the election.
Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!
However, it is difficult
Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.
Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?
It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.
Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?
There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.
As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.
If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.
My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it
The point is not you will be catching trains on HS2. The point is that with the capacity freed up Leicester can have an improved service to Birmingham, Derby and possibly direct to London while the Leeds/London or Leeds/Birmingham expresses go elsewhere.
Currently Leicester to
Currently we have 2 trains per hour taking 70 min from Leicester to St Pancras. That is plenty.
So to be clear - you’re saying we shouldn’t free up capacity on local railway networks because doing so will make no diffference?
I don't see how HS2 frees up capacity on the cross country line from Brum to Leicester (and onwards to East Anglia)
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
Good article and whilst events may prove it not to be 100% accurate by polling day, not much can be argued with it as of now.
If the ERG remain loyal to Boris and the tory campaign doesn't leave a huge void for Labour to move into, then I think majority for Con is probable. We might see a dozen or so freaky results from seemingly impossible positions, probably mainly LD but also a couple of Tory ones in there. Talk of 30-40 gains for LD in London, the commuter belt and the SW is hugely premature and would take another big movement in the polls to get anywhere near.
Farage probably thinks he can hurt the Tories, but realistically most of the Tory vote he borrowed for the Euro's has gone returned and is staying put. Brexit Party vote will be the usual rump of 3% that used to vote BNP in the 90s, some Labour leavers and protest voters. If they get as much as 10%, I will be surprised.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
Beto O'Rourke's withdrawal helps ... no idea. He did not seem to stand for anything very much (hi, Mayor Pete fans). The question is not who inherits Beto's meagre support, which is probably all of them, but who else will pull out before the next debate three weeks from now on 20/11.
Maybe help his fellow Texan, Julian Castro who is struggling to survive.
There are four candidates in this race: Warren, Buttigieg, and two others whose names I forget.
Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!
However, it is difficult
Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.
Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?
It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.
Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?
There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.
As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.
If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.
My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it
The point is not you will be catching trains on HS2. The point is that with the capacity freed up Leicester can have an improved service to Birmingham, Derby and possibly direct to London while the Leeds/London or Leeds/Birmingham expresses go elsewhere.
Currently Leicester to Bham New St takes an hour for 40 miles, so nearly as long as HS2 from London. I cannot see that changing, and it highlights how Londoncentric the whole network is. Lines linking regional centres are pisspoor, unless the lines are also the main line to London.
Currently we have 2 trains per hour taking 70 min from Leicester to St Pancras. That is plenty.
Yes, my idea is build HS2 from London to Leeds via Brum and Manc. Then reinstate connections between the WCML and MML at Northampton and Nuneaton to Burton. That way the east mids shares in the extra capacity and you get some extra direct journey options.
I don't see how HS2 frees up capacity on the cross country line from Brum to Leicester (and onwards to East Anglia)
Because it frees up capacity on the bottlenecks going into Birmingham (and Peterborough, for the matter of that). Just as a canal is as deep as its shallowest lock, so a railway is as quiet as its busiest point. If there is no capacity for faster trains in one area, then the only way to increase capacity is build new tracks.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
In fairness Pidcock, Lavery, Burgon, Trickett all represent northern seats as well.
What will it say about negotiations for the future trade deal, extending the transition and the possibility of exiting the transition without a deal while negotiations continue? The ERG were pushing quite hard for a commitment not to extend the transition in the Withdrawal Agreement debates.
If Johnson wins a majority that's one of the major next arguments in the Brexit saga - others being the substance of any trade deal with the EU, or the US.
The ERG has signed up to a withdrawal agreement that ensures No Deal hurts GB more than every EU member state and that gives the UK no safety net. It’ll be interesting to see how they react to the reality of that.
HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.
However, it is difficult
Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.
Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?
It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.
Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?
There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.
As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.
If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.
My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it
The point is not you will be catching trains on HS2. The point is that with the capacity freed up Leicester can have an improved service to Birmingham, Derby and possibly direct to London while the Leeds/London or Leeds/Birmingham expresses go elsewhere.
Currently Leicester to
Currently we have 2 trains per hour taking 70 min from Leicester to St Pancras. That is plenty.
So to be clear - you’re saying we shouldn’t free up capacity on local railway networks because doing so will make no diffference?
I don't see how HS2 frees up capacity on the cross country line from Brum to Leicester (and onwards to East Anglia)
Back around 1960 my girl-friend and I could travel between Rochdale and Sunderland (we had our reasons) on one train. Just looked and anyone doing that nowadays would have t least two changes. Hmmm
I'm shuddering at being reminded of the 2017 Lib Dem campaign. How on earth we got away with it (in terms of not being wiped out) I'll never know. Hopefully we'll have Tim Farron locked away in a cupboard somewhere this time.
For Wales, I'd highlight the loss of Carwyn Jones as a serious problem for Labour, he is irretrievably damaged by the Sargeant Affair.
Mark Drakeford is a poor substitute.
Labour did especially well in Wales in 2017, retaking 3 seats. The most astonishing to me was the running of Crabb so close in Presell Pembrokeshire, (a pretty affluent constituency for Wales).
If the Workington polling is right, then Labour losses in Wales could run into 2 digits.
No to HS2. No Gatwick expansion. No fracking. He may have come across as a bumbling old Etonian who’s enjoyed the party far too much, but he has the brain of Greta Thunberg. Vote Boris, go green.
No to HS2. No Gatwick expansion. No fracking. He may have come across as a bumbling old Etonian who’s enjoyed the party far too much, but he has the brain of Greta Thunberg. Vote Boris, go green.
He hasn’t said any of those. You are hearing what you want to hear.
No to HS2. No Gatwick expansion. No fracking. He may have come across as a bumbling old Etonian who’s enjoyed the party far too much, but he has the brain of Greta Thunberg. Vote Boris, go green.
He hasn’t said any of those. You are hearing what you want to hear.
No to HS2. No Gatwick expansion. No fracking. He may have come across as a bumbling old Etonian who’s enjoyed the party far too much, but he has the brain of Greta Thunberg. Vote Boris, go green.
He hasn’t said any of those. You are hearing what you want to hear.
I don't see how HS2 frees up capacity on the cross country line from Brum to Leicester (and onwards to East Anglia)
Because it frees up capacity on the bottlenecks going into Birmingham (and Peterborough, for the matter of that). Just as a canal is as deep as its shallowest lock, so a railway is as quiet as its busiest point. If there is no capacity for faster trains in one area, then the only way to increase capacity is build new tracks.
As broad as its narrowest lock, or as long as its shortest. Depth of locks doesn't really restrict passage (unless you're trying to get off a tideway when the tide is ebbing fast, as happened to me once). But beam (width) and length are real impediments.
(Ok, that has only very tangential relevance to the conversation, but it's not often I get an opportunity to be a canal geek on PB...)
I don't see how HS2 frees up capacity on the cross country line from Brum to Leicester (and onwards to East Anglia)
Because it frees up capacity on the bottlenecks going into Birmingham (and Peterborough, for the matter of that). Just as a canal is as deep as its shallowest lock, so a railway is as quiet as its busiest point. If there is no capacity for faster trains in one area, then the only way to increase capacity is build new tracks.
As broad as its narrowest lock, or as long as its shortest. Depth of locks doesn't really restrict passage (unless you're trying to get off a tideway when the tide is ebbing fast, as happened to me once). But beam (width) and length are real impediments.
(Ok, that has only very tangential relevance to the conversation, but it's not often I get an opportunity to be a canal geek on PB...)
Clearly I’m out of my depth in this conversation...
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
In fairness Pidcock, Lavery, Burgon, Trickett all represent northern seats as well.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
They will get exactly what they deserve. They are useless, have done ZERO for Scotland and are just 13 sockpuppets to vote as ordered by their Lords and Masters in Westminster.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
In fairness Pidcock, Lavery, Burgon, Trickett all represent northern seats as well.
Angela Rayner too.
Cat Smith, if she still counts for anything?
That’s a biggish number.
Against that, the top four all represent London - two of them Islington.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
You snapped up the 5/1 Lads offered on 11-15 for the SCons I presume?
No to HS2. No Gatwick expansion. No fracking. He may have come across as a bumbling old Etonian who’s enjoyed the party far too much, but he has the brain of Greta Thunberg. Vote Boris, go green.
He hasn’t said any of those. You are hearing what you want to hear.
That is good campaigning!
The voter hears what (s)he wants to hear.
A leaf out of the Corbyn playbook?
No, vintage Boris. He was the same in London and more recently the same in the Tory leadership campaign. Say nothing. Or if you must, say something ambiguous, then allow colleagues and journalists to interpret your position in whichever way is convenient and do not seek to correct them.
And only if really necessary, lie.
Boris defined his Brexit policy as pro-having and pro-eating cake. That is his policy on most things.
There is no sport on this weekend so rewatch When Boris Met Dave, in particular for US Republican guru Frank Luntz on Boris's Oxford Union campaigns.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
I am cautiously optimistic for the Scons and the reason is Nicola's obsession for independence and tying it into a GE. The SNP are not universally popular and have failing education and nhs issues. I saw Douglas Ross broacast from Moray (my wifes former home constituency) and it was very pro the union. This battle has become independence v union and the union still remains very popular
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
I mean that’s less than 14% of Labour’s 2017 vote share. Not quite as mind blowing as you might think. How many Con voters from 2017 are now voting Lib Dem?
But how many Lab voters are now voting LibDem?
That only matters in Lab v Tory marginals. It doesn’t matter in traditional Tory heartlands.
But this election will be decided in Tory v Labour marginals.
What will it say about negotiations for the future trade deal, extending the transition and the possibility of exiting the transition without a deal while negotiations continue? The ERG were pushing quite hard for a commitment not to extend the transition in the Withdrawal Agreement debates.
If Johnson wins a majority that's one of the major next arguments in the Brexit saga - others being the substance of any trade deal with the EU, or the US.
Indeed. The big fight will be over extending the transition in the summer - where financial markets are getting worried about the reintroduction of the no deal risk - but you can bet there will be no discussion of that during the election campaign. Most voters have absolutely no idea about the risks associated with our current path - just a load of pig-ignorant BS about 'getting it done'. The next parliament will be completely dominated by Brexit.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
My model delivers it to the Tories on current polling. It could be one of the first CON gains from LAB of the night, could set the tone for a grim night for Labour.
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
You snapped up the 5/1 Lads offered on 11-15 for the SCons I presume?
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
My model delivers it to the Tories on current polling. It could be one of the first CON gains from LAB of the night, could set the tone for a grim night for Labour.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
In fairness Pidcock, Lavery, Burgon, Trickett all represent northern seats as well.
Angela Rayner too.
And none of them are remotely leadership material.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
HS2 is a Schrodinger’s trainset. If you want to believe it’s cancelled then it’s cancelled. If you want to be believe it’s still happening then it’s still happening.
We should find out quite soon after the election.
Originally the Oakervee Review was due to be published a fortnight Monday. However, I am guessing that there will now be a delay into the New Year. Nobody is going to want an argument about this in an election campaign!
However, it is difficult
Those people nowhere near the HS2 line see £80 billion that could be/have been spent elsewehere. Some of it in their neck of the woods.....
Meanwhile those of us who live near the WCML suffer delays, cancellations and reduced services. Not to mention the huge amount of freight the WCML carries that needs to go somewhere.
I find it fascinating that the cost of HS2 is always brought up.
Where are these people when Crossrail was funded, when the Northern Line tube line is being extended?
It is not as if the railway has been starved of cash due to HS2.
Reading station alone was £1bn - where was the noise about that or do enough of the London elite use that line for it to be worthwhile?
There is vast sums of money invested in and around London that never ever gets any negative comment.
As soon as anyone suggests investing in the north, to start the decades and decades of none investment, all hell breaks loose.
If HS2 was built instead of the WCML upgrade 20 years ago it would have been cheaper, if we delay a further 20 years it will cost far more.
My dislike of HS2 is fairly ho hum. I am not too bothered whether it is scrapped or not.
Ticket prices will be significantly higher even than the inflated prices we pay already, the line passes through Leics without stopping, and I cannot see why I would ever take it.
High speed trains seem less environmentally sound from several perspectives. They also suck more of the country into being London commuter land. It looks a white elephant in the making to me.
The biggest mistake with HS2 is the name - the 2 makes it sound like an afterthought. It should have been called HSN (High Speed North). They just need to get on with it, in 20 years we won't know why we were arguing about it.
This is a balancing piece to the one I wrote a few weeks back suggesting that a minority Labour government was likely. It's persuasive and well-written like all David's pieces, but some caveats:
* There is an unusually large body of voters who dislike everyone. We aren't sure how they'll behave or who that will damage most. * That body will probably be quite influenced by whoever is perceived to win the Johnson-Corbyn debate(s). The evidence so far is that Johnson does badly in this sort of scenario - even at PMQs, where the PM has a built-in home advantage (large supporter crowd, last to speak), Corbyn is generally judged to have the upper hand. * The key to my piece was an assumption on tactical voting - that anti-Brexit floating voters in Labour seats will tend to vote for the incumbent. That still seems plausible to me, but it won't show up in national polls. * The LibDem drive for 2nd place appears to have peaked. Pollsters vary a lot but nearly all of them are showing the Lab-LD gap widening. That will tend to reinforce the previous point.
I'm not confident of stopping a Tory majority, but it's not in the bag. I think we'll know a lot more after the leader debate(s). My guess is that certainty of a Tory overall majority is near at its highest, and laying it is a good trading bet.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
My model delivers it to the Tories on current polling. It could be one of the first CON gains from LAB of the night, could set the tone for a grim night for Labour.
The LibDem very low and declining vote share here is actually good news - what will matter for them is their extra vote being concentrated in remain-leaning seats in the South.
Morning all and another great piece by David Herdson.
I see a great many parallels with 1983 which I am more than old enough to remember well.
For me Labour's biggest problem this time is their near success in 2017. Going into that election, nobody seriously thought Corbyn might win so for many, it was "safe" to vote Labour. This time it is different. Voting Labour could result in Corbyn winning. There is a whole raft of seats where even if the Tories don't put on any votes but the Liberals and Brexit party pare away Labour ones, the Tories could take the seat.
I suspect the Tory message will be relatively simple
Vote Tory get Johnson
Vote Labour get Corbyn Vote LibDem get Corbyn Vote SNP get Corbyn Vote PC get Corbyn Vote Green get Corbyn Vote Brexit get Corbyn
As I have said on here numerous times on here over the past few weeks, in the leafy, affluent south of England marginals where the Liberals are eying up Tory targets, voters have to decide which matters most, vote Tory and get Boris' deal which doesn't seem too bad or love the EU so much that vote Liberal and risk Corbyn as PM.
Remember in 2005 when the Liberals had their "decapitation" policy of key Tory seats. Among their targets were Michael Howard, Theresa May and Oliver Letwin. All 3 ended up by increasing their majorities.
In addition everyone is writing off the Scots Tories because Ruth is no longer at the helm. In most of the seats we are defending, the Liberal vote had near collapsed, much going to the SNP. IF the Liberals recover enough and don't take votes from the Tories, rather than the SNP retaking the seats, they will simply split the anti-Tory vote. In addition most of the Scottish Tory seats are in the most pro-Brexit parts of Scotland where the 2016 result was within the 45-55 range not the 38-62 range that the SNP understandably continue to spout on about.
As for Scottish Labour, Ian Murray may be the last man standing once again and English Labour outside London, Liverpool and Manchester may see their results more like Labour Scotland 2015 than Labour Scotland 2010!
I liked my old mucker Casino Royale's betting suggestion yesterday of backing the Tories to win between 250 - 299 seats at decimal odds of 5.75 including Ladbrokes' 0.25 bonus. Such a result appears all too possible were things to go seriously pear-shaped for the Blue Team over the next 6 weeks, just as they did last time out. For those of us in the betting fraternity, it would be good if pearls of wisdom such as these could be highlighted in bold with a Bet of the Day caption or suchlike so that attractive opportunities are not overlooked.
Every post I'll make will be a Bet of the Day post.
For instance if that tweet HYUFD posted in the last thread is true and the Lib Dems are truly only 7 points behind Blackford IN Ross Skye and Lochabar then the Conservatives have lost West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and you need to take a good hard look at Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
As both of those seats, like in Ross, the Con vote was powered by Lib Dem switchers.
I'm very bullish on the Scottish Conservatives.
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
I am cautiously optimistic for the Scons and the reason is Nicola's obsession for independence and tying it into a GE. The SNP are not universally popular and have failing education and nhs issues. I saw Douglas Ross broacast from Moray (my wifes former home constituency) and it was very pro the union. This battle has become independence v union and the union still remains very popular
G , I think you will find out soon that it si not as popular as you think. The people want to decide themselves what they want , not dictated to by some buffoon. A Tory propaganda broadcast full of lies is not a bellweather of public opinion. You would hardly expect a Tory to broadcast reality. Fact that despite issues Scotland has best performing NHS in the UK and not sure where you see education issues that are any different from rest of UK. Hard to believe that Scotland will vote to remain under the Tory yoke.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
In fairness Pidcock, Lavery, Burgon, Trickett all represent northern seats as well.
Angela Rayner too.
And none of them are remotely leadership material.
Burgon? Jesus...
I rather like Angela Rayner. She has some of the outspoken charm of Jess Phillips, though less wit, but has not antagonised the Corbynistas so much.
The big Yougov poll from earlier this week had 44% of Labour Leavers from 2017 switching either to the Tories or TBP. Labour Leavers were about 10% of the voters, overall, in 2017, but in a constituency like Workington, the proportion would be much higher.
Workington is just the sort of seat that's very ripe to fall to the Tories in an election like this.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Labour seems extremely London centric at the moment - yes there is Rebecca LB but on the whole I struggle to think of Corbyn's inner circle representing the North of England, Wales and Scotland.
In fairness Pidcock, Lavery, Burgon, Trickett all represent northern seats as well.
Angela Rayner too.
And none of them are remotely leadership material.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
We haven't yet seen remain tactical voting come to the fore. The key question that Labour remainers will need to pledge is "do you give your word to break your word and vote against your party to support remain".
Because remember that Labour policy. They will spend 3 months negotiating a Deal to Leave the European Union. Then they will hold a special conference where they will have a hand vote (never dodgy) to decide if they will back their deal or campaign against their deal. Whilst all this is going on you can guarantee the Chuckle Brothers (Gardiner & Burgon) will be on the telly contradicting everything optimistic remainers say.
I have a HUGE amount of sympathy for passionate Labour remainers like my MP Paul Williams. But ultimately I don't trust the party to deliver remain when its clear that the inner machine is doing all it can to deliver a leave deal. This is a Brexit election, it is all of a few days old, we have seen wild poll swings throughout this year as we saw wild swings in 2017 yet people are complacently insisting no more swings on THE issue.
Morning all and another great piece by David Herdson.
I see a great many parallels with 1983 which I am more than old enough to remember well.
For me Labour's biggest problem this time is their near success in 2017. Going into that election, nobody seriously thought Corbyn might win so for many, it was "safe" to vote Labour. This time it is different. Voting Labour could result in Corbyn winning. There is a whole raft of seats where even if the Tories don't put on any votes but the Liberals and Brexit party pare away Labour ones, the Tories could take the seat.
I suspect the Tory message will be relatively simple
Vote Tory get Johnson
Vote Labour get Corbyn Vote LibDem get Corbyn Vote SNP get Corbyn Vote PC get Corbyn Vote Green get Corbyn Vote Brexit get Corbyn
As I have said on here numerous times on here over the past few weeks, in the leafy, affluent south of England marginals where the Liberals are eying up Tory targets, voters have to decide which matters most, vote Tory and get Boris' deal which doesn't seem too bad or love the EU so much that vote Liberal and risk Corbyn as PM.
Remember in 2005 when the Liberals had their "decapitation" policy of key Tory seats. Among their targets were Michael Howard, Theresa May and Oliver Letwin. All 3 ended up by increasing their majorities.
In addition everyone is writing off the Scots Tories because Ruth is no longer at the helm. In most of the seats we are defending, the Liberal vote had near collapsed, much going to the SNP. IF the Liberals recover enough and don't take votes from the Tories, rather than the SNP retaking the seats, they will simply split the anti-Tory vote. In addition most of the Scottish Tory seats are in the most pro-Brexit parts of Scotland where the 2016 result was within the 45-55 range not the 38-62 range that the SNP understandably continue to spout on about.
As for Scottish Labour, Ian Murray may be the last man standing once again and English Labour outside London, Liverpool and Manchester may see their results more like Labour Scotland 2015 than Labour Scotland 2010!
Wishful thinking re Tories in Scotland at least. Sure the right wingers will be out in force in leaver land though.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
A commendably honest post. Beating the centre-left has always been the Corbynista priority. If that means right-wing Tory governments, so be it. The two issues yet to be sorted are these: 1. There is no obvious replacement for Corbyn from the far-left. 2. Not one Labour MP has been deselected. It will be interesting to see what the PLP looks like post-election. And whether Labour members will tolerate an ongoing Corbyn leadership.
I’ll take you on on point number 1. If all the corbyn McDonnell acolytes are not very good and don’t seem leadership material doesn’t mean they won’t get the resounding win Corbyn got last leadership election. Way ahead of yourselves predicting end of corbynista leadership and ruling out corbynista government ever happening a few years down the line. 🙂.
This is a balancing piece to the one I wrote a few weeks back suggesting that a minority Labour government was likely. It's persuasive and well-written like all David's pieces, but some caveats:
* There is an unusually large body of voters who dislike everyone. We aren't sure how they'll behave or who that will damage most. * That body will probably be quite influenced by whoever is perceived to win the Johnson-Corbyn debate(s). The evidence so far is that Johnson does badly in this sort of scenario - even at PMQs, where the PM has a built-in home advantage (large supporter crowd, last to speak), Corbyn is generally judged to have the upper hand. * The key to my piece was an assumption on tactical voting - that anti-Brexit floating voters in Labour seats will tend to vote for the incumbent. That still seems plausible to me, but it won't show up in national polls. * The LibDem drive for 2nd place appears to have peaked. Pollsters vary a lot but nearly all of them are showing the Lab-LD gap widening. That will tend to reinforce the previous point.
I'm not confident of stopping a Tory majority, but it's not in the bag. I think we'll know a lot more after the leader debate(s). My guess is that certainty of a Tory overall majority is near at its highest, and laying it is a good trading bet.
I think by the time of the debates the position will be clearer as we will have lots of opinion polls confirming trends and highlighting policy disagreements but also evidence from canvassers on the ground
The evidence at present does point towards a Boris win especially the Workington voting intention published by survation yesterday. Also last night's phone in to 5 live consisted of many angry callers that brexit has not happened and to be fair almost universal rejection of labour which did surprise me, especially in view of the BBC's need for impartiality
I can see no path for labour to increase their seats and the only question is if Boris can be prevented from achieving a majority
We haven't yet seen remain tactical voting come to the fore. The key question that Labour remainers will need to pledge is "do you give your word to break your word and vote against your party to support remain".
Because remember that Labour policy. They will spend 3 months negotiating a Deal to Leave the European Union. Then they will hold a special conference where they will have a hand vote (never dodgy) to decide if they will back their deal or campaign against their deal. Whilst all this is going on you can guarantee the Chuckle Brothers (Gardiner & Burgon) will be on the telly contradicting everything optimistic remainers say.
I have a HUGE amount of sympathy for passionate Labour remainers like my MP Paul Williams. But ultimately I don't trust the party to deliver remain when its clear that the inner machine is doing all it can to deliver a leave deal. This is a Brexit election, it is all of a few days old, we have seen wild poll swings throughout this year as we saw wild swings in 2017 yet people are complacently insisting no more swings on THE issue.
My recollection (perhaps wrong) is you voted Leave.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country is not the right approach in my opinion.
Tell me about it. I despise what the body politic has corrupted us into being. It can be changed, but Brexit has become totemic. Why is the country crap? Brexit. How do we fix it? Brexit. How do we get rid of (insert your issue)? Brexit. How do we roll the clock back/modernise? Brexit.
It will not go away for a generation. Because fundamentally the economic model of the last 40 years hasn't worked for so many people, they don't understand why, and Europe has now become the saint or sinner depending on your point of view.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
On one hand I can hear my former comrades literally raging about these Evil People. On the other hand it will be funny to watch their reaction when they leave the country as demanded and take their cash with them. "What, you mean they aren't staying here to let us tax them to poverty? How DARE THEY"
Question. These billionaires they want to target. How many are Jewish...? (*innocent face*)
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
I’m with you on this. England is a lovely country.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
So we are looking at a generation of lib dem control then?
Good luck to England this morning in the Rugby World Cup final. I am sad at Scots who want South Africa to win simply because they want England to lose.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
They've just had the British national anthem from the rugby game at the end of the Today programme. Nice touch.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
The country is split. The intensity of animosity is like nothing I have seen since the 1980s. It’s profoundly unhealthy and it’s not going away.
I'd rather be in the lead... but it is a hell of a lot more fun being the underdog, even a heroic defeat can feel like victory...
It may be my sunny disposition but I see only upside from here.
Even the worst case scenario, Johnson wins big. Long term probably great for Labour, terrible for the country in the short term but the more people turn against the Tories the better things get in the longer term. Even in a worst case scenario Corbyn has secured Labour as a left wing party, got rid of some truly terrible MPs and made things far easier for his successor.
Tis always darkest before the dawn, with any luck that light will start breaking through before the 12th of December but even if it doesn't it will just shine all the brighter when it does break through. So just embrace the darkness.
People posting in this thread 100% sure the corbynista project doesn’t continue after corbyn all the way to a corbynista government 2025. They are wrong aren’t they? The Conservative strategy under Cummings and Boris proves this mistake doesn’t it, because it’s one thing to be able to win an election with divisiveness but another thing to be able to successfully govern with this approach.
The Tories are heading to the hard right, that is absolutely clear and after the next GE those sitting next to and behind Johnson in the Commons will prove it. The Tories are the party of Patel, Rees Mogg and Raab now: viciously right wing, instinctively English nationalist. That’s why Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win a general election. But Labour has done so much to alienate its traditional and potential supporters that it will be very tough to win them back. The second places the LDs secure next month could be very significant if Labour chooses another far left leader when Corbyn does eventually stand down.
Excellent post and spot on.
I think that post is wrong and not a reading of where this is going at all.
If UK continues it’s decline in the world, increasingly like a third world country with extremes between rich and poor and increased volatility in living standards in between those extremes, which seems almost certain considering post industrial with huge demographic time bomb, and how our cowardly safety first politics missed the bus transforming our economy and revolutionising our tax system, (death/dementia tax, HS2 anyone?) then it is this culture that will shape the politics. If this is the culture you won’t be able to escape it’s impact on politics drift away from centre governments.
What a horrible country the UK has become that we are seriously considering voting for Boris Johnson to be our Prime Minister for the next five years.
Not sure about all of the UK, but certainly England is bloody horrible. What have we become, nasty narrow minded petty nationalists who never mind the Empire and global relevance now want to bin off the UK so that England can have its Brexit and boot out the darkies.
Disliking your own country because it may vote in a way you don't like is not the right approach in my opinion.
I’m with you on this. England is a lovely country.
Yeah, we have to remember that Tories are only a third of the country, and not all of them are arseholes, though clearly the arseholes are running the show at present.
On one hand I can hear my former comrades literally raging about these Evil People. On the other hand it will be funny to watch their reaction when they leave the country as demanded and take their cash with them. "What, you mean they aren't staying here to let us tax them to poverty? How DARE THEY"
Question. These billionaires they want to target. How many are Jewish...? (*innocent face*)
How many have to make any move anywhere, a soak the rich tax won’t impact super rich tax dodgers, they will just carry on dodging. If you are a billionaire anywhere on Earth you are far to wealthy to pay tax.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Whilst he does appear well placed for the coming election - at the moment - he hasn't actually done anything yet. Under pressure he's taken a deal from the EU essentially the same as the one he resigned over, except that it takes a small first step towards the eventual unification of Ireland. He's fortunate that after the agony of Theresa a lot of people just want the whole thing to go away; whether he has the ability to sell and deliver what he has signed up to, time will tell.
I don't know about anyone else, but this hour long preamble to the RWC final is just sooo boring.In fact all pre match "build ups" are a yawn. I think 'll tune in at the start of the match.
Well don't watch it then
I am not
Stop boring everyone else by telling us how you are not watching it
They've just had the British national anthem from the rugby game at the end of the Today programme. Nice touch.
Britain isn't a team in the final. England crap/arrogant enough to think God Save the Queen is appropriate when Wales Scotland and NI have separate anthems
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
You're making the mistake of taking the arguments used by the ERG seriously. They simply say what they think gives them most advantage.
They talk about no deal providing leverage in negotiations because they think that talking about no deal as their preferred option will scare people off.
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Whilst he does appear well placed for the coming election - at the moment - he hasn't actually done anything yet. Under pressure he's taken a deal from the EU essentially the same as the one he resigned over, except that it takes a small first step towards the eventual unification of Ireland. He's fortunate that after the agony of Theresa a lot of people just want the whole thing to go away; whether he has the ability to sell and deliver what he has signed up to, time will tell.
True. But, he has got further than I thought he would. And I think he will win the election with a majority.
The fact that Johnson believes in nothing (other than the greater glory of Boris) is a help in dealing with a slippery concept like Brexit.
Good thread header and on current polling Labour will likely do worse on voteshare under Corbyn than the 27% they got under Foot in 1983, previously their lowest voteshare since WW2 and there is a strong chance Labour might even get fewer MPs than the 209 Foot won back then too.
Note too in 1983 the SDP/Liberal Alliance was just 2% behind Labour, the LDs are likely to be close to or even ahead of Labour on votes this time
Gloria De Piero expressing regret for not passing TM deal
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
I think Remainers will really come to regret it.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
So will the ERG. The UK now has no No Deal leverage whatsoever.
No.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
Whilst he does appear well placed for the coming election - at the moment - he hasn't actually done anything yet. Under pressure he's taken a deal from the EU essentially the same as the one he resigned over, except that it takes a small first step towards the eventual unification of Ireland. He's fortunate that after the agony of Theresa a lot of people just want the whole thing to go away; whether he has the ability to sell and deliver what he has signed up to, time will tell.
True. But, he has got further than I thought he would. And I think he will win the election with a majority.
The fact that Johnson believes in nothing (other than the greater glory of Boris) is a help in dealing with a slippery concept like Brexit.
In political terms, Boris is very good, up until the point where something actually needs to be decided and done.
Comments
Currently we have 2 trains per hour taking 70 min from Leicester to St Pancras. That is plenty.
Good to see you back.
1. There is no obvious replacement for Corbyn from the far-left.
2. Not one Labour MP has been deselected.
It will be interesting to see what the PLP looks like post-election. And whether Labour members will tolerate an ongoing Corbyn leadership.
Sadly, I can't see any market up for it yet.
Yeh, probably right, won't influence anyone.
And so it came to pass...
My mind could be changed, but i'll put any intelligence from Nationalist posters on that through a very heavy filter.
If the ERG remain loyal to Boris and the tory campaign doesn't leave a huge void for Labour to move into, then I think majority for Con is probable. We might see a dozen or so freaky results from seemingly impossible positions, probably mainly LD but also a couple of Tory ones in there. Talk of 30-40 gains for LD in London, the commuter belt and the SW is hugely premature and would take another big movement in the polls to get anywhere near.
Farage probably thinks he can hurt the Tories, but realistically most of the Tory vote he borrowed for the Euro's has gone returned and is staying put. Brexit Party vote will be the usual rump of 3% that used to vote BNP in the 90s, some Labour leavers and protest voters. If they get as much as 10%, I will be surprised.
Yang.
Mark Drakeford is a poor substitute.
Labour did especially well in Wales in 2017, retaking 3 seats. The most astonishing to me was the running of Crabb so close in Presell Pembrokeshire, (a pretty affluent constituency for Wales).
If the Workington polling is right, then Labour losses in Wales could run into 2 digits.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-50218615
The voter hears what (s)he wants to hear.
(Ok, that has only very tangential relevance to the conversation, but it's not often I get an opportunity to be a canal geek on PB...)
That’s a biggish number.
Against that, the top four all represent London - two of them Islington.
And only if really necessary, lie.
Boris defined his Brexit policy as pro-having and pro-eating cake. That is his policy on most things.
There is no sport on this weekend so rewatch When Boris Met Dave, in particular for US Republican guru Frank Luntz on Boris's Oxford Union campaigns.
It's one of those common features, like commentators being annoying.
At least in another time zone it’s at a (just about) more sociable hour!
CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 34% (-17)
BXP: 13% (+13)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (+2)
Via @Survation, 30-31 Oct.
Changes w/ GE2017.
Burgon? Jesus...
LOL
* There is an unusually large body of voters who dislike everyone. We aren't sure how they'll behave or who that will damage most.
* That body will probably be quite influenced by whoever is perceived to win the Johnson-Corbyn debate(s). The evidence so far is that Johnson does badly in this sort of scenario - even at PMQs, where the PM has a built-in home advantage (large supporter crowd, last to speak), Corbyn is generally judged to have the upper hand.
* The key to my piece was an assumption on tactical voting - that anti-Brexit floating voters in Labour seats will tend to vote for the incumbent. That still seems plausible to me, but it won't show up in national polls.
* The LibDem drive for 2nd place appears to have peaked. Pollsters vary a lot but nearly all of them are showing the Lab-LD gap widening. That will tend to reinforce the previous point.
I'm not confident of stopping a Tory majority, but it's not in the bag. I think we'll know a lot more after the leader debate(s). My guess is that certainty of a Tory overall majority is near at its highest, and laying it is a good trading bet.
I see a great many parallels with 1983 which I am more than old enough to remember well.
For me Labour's biggest problem this time is their near success in 2017. Going into that election, nobody seriously thought Corbyn might win so for many, it was "safe" to vote Labour. This time it is different. Voting Labour could result in Corbyn winning. There is a whole raft of seats where even if the Tories don't put on any votes but the Liberals and Brexit party pare away Labour ones, the Tories could take the seat.
I suspect the Tory message will be relatively simple
Vote Tory get Johnson
Vote Labour get Corbyn
Vote LibDem get Corbyn
Vote SNP get Corbyn
Vote PC get Corbyn
Vote Green get Corbyn
Vote Brexit get Corbyn
As I have said on here numerous times on here over the past few weeks, in the leafy, affluent south of England marginals where the Liberals are eying up Tory targets, voters have to decide which matters most, vote Tory and get Boris' deal which doesn't seem too bad or love the EU so much that vote Liberal and risk Corbyn as PM.
Remember in 2005 when the Liberals had their "decapitation" policy of key Tory seats. Among their targets were Michael Howard, Theresa May and Oliver Letwin. All 3 ended up by increasing their majorities.
In addition everyone is writing off the Scots Tories because Ruth is no longer at the helm. In most of the seats we are defending, the Liberal vote had near collapsed, much going to the SNP. IF the Liberals recover enough and don't take votes from the Tories, rather than the SNP retaking the seats, they will simply split the anti-Tory vote. In addition most of the Scottish Tory seats are in the most pro-Brexit parts of Scotland where the 2016 result was within the 45-55 range not the 38-62 range that the SNP understandably continue to spout on about.
As for Scottish Labour, Ian Murray may be the last man standing once again and English Labour outside London, Liverpool and Manchester may see their results more like Labour Scotland 2015 than Labour Scotland 2010!
Hard to believe that Scotland will vote to remain under the Tory yoke.
Because remember that Labour policy. They will spend 3 months negotiating a Deal to Leave the European Union. Then they will hold a special conference where they will have a hand vote (never dodgy) to decide if they will back their deal or campaign against their deal. Whilst all this is going on you can guarantee the Chuckle Brothers (Gardiner & Burgon) will be on the telly contradicting everything optimistic remainers say.
I have a HUGE amount of sympathy for passionate Labour remainers like my MP Paul Williams. But ultimately I don't trust the party to deliver remain when its clear that the inner machine is doing all it can to deliver a leave deal. This is a Brexit election, it is all of a few days old, we have seen wild poll swings throughout this year as we saw wild swings in 2017 yet people are complacently insisting no more swings on THE issue.
Way ahead of yourselves predicting end of corbynista leadership and ruling out corbynista government ever happening a few years down the line. 🙂.
The evidence at present does point towards a Boris win especially the Workington voting intention published by survation yesterday. Also last night's phone in to 5 live consisted of many angry callers that brexit has not happened and to be fair almost universal rejection of labour which did surprise me, especially in view of the BBC's need for impartiality
I can see no path for labour to increase their seats and the only question is if Boris can be prevented from achieving a majority
I expect many labour mps have the same regrets
It will not go away for a generation. Because fundamentally the economic model of the last 40 years hasn't worked for so many people, they don't understand why, and Europe has now become the saint or sinner depending on your point of view.
I think the DUP will really come to regret it.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/nov/02/super-rich-leave-uk-labour-election-win-jeremy-corbyn-wealth-taxes
On one hand I can hear my former comrades literally raging about these Evil People. On the other hand it will be funny to watch their reaction when they leave the country as demanded and take their cash with them. "What, you mean they aren't staying here to let us tax them to poverty? How DARE THEY"
Question. These billionaires they want to target. How many are Jewish...? (*innocent face*)
England gets the nations attention right now
If UK continues it’s decline in the world, increasingly like a third world country with extremes between rich and poor and increased volatility in living standards in between those extremes, which seems almost certain considering post industrial with huge demographic time bomb, and how our cowardly safety first politics missed the bus transforming our economy and revolutionising our tax system, (death/dementia tax, HS2 anyone?) then it is this culture that will shape the politics. If this is the culture you won’t be able to escape it’s impact on politics drift away from centre governments.
The ERG don't have exactly what they want, but they have far more of it. They have no need to regret their opposition to May's deal.
I have to say I underestimated Johnson. I didn't think he'd be able to do what he has done.
They talk about no deal providing leverage in negotiations because they think that talking about no deal as their preferred option will scare people off.
The fact that Johnson believes in nothing (other than the greater glory of Boris) is a help in dealing with a slippery concept like Brexit.
Note too in 1983 the SDP/Liberal Alliance was just 2% behind Labour, the LDs are likely to be close to or even ahead of Labour on votes this time