2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
Calling gay men 'tank topped bum boys' is not modern nor liberal.
Being the leading Tory calling for gays to get equal marriage before Cameron or anyone else is both modern and liberal though.
“If gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog.”
Comparing homosexuality to bestiality doesn't sound very modern and liberal to me.
I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.
They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.
Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.
Media coverage will depend on how many seats they stand in if it’s 40 then they will be virtually ignored.
Does it work like that? I would have said that if the Vote Leave machine is behind Boris they will be virtually ignored by the media if they stand in 600 seats; if it's behind BXP they will be all over BBC News even if they only stand in 20.
Media coverage is based on last GE performance, other recent elections and the number of seats they are contesting. It’s not a matter of broadcasters choice but I believe, I might be wrong, determined by the electoral commission. I think the key point is he has 600+ candidates selected and already up and running who would be royally pissed off if they were pulled. Tice is the real bankroller of TBP not banks and it is small change to him.
It does almost feel like a testing of the waters to see how all those candidates react to potentially being told to stand down, and then confirming they are not being stood down if it seems like they will kick up a fuss.
You can bet your life they won’t get their £100 back, either way.
BJ is a gaffe prone individual. Under pressure he slips out his true agenda. An example of this was his comment about the "forthcoming election" some months ago. It is no wonder the media handlers decline to offer him up for interviews. Some might say he is chlorinated chicken! The man seems to get away with these things, he deliberately and wilfully avoids scrutiny in a way previous PM's and leaders of a party have not. Remember Tony Blair, often criticised for part of his time in office. He did not shy away but got on the TV in front of a camera. It was called the masochism strategy!
Going back to Boris, pressure should be put on him to turn up and be interviewed at length and maybe we will find out more about the No Deal Brexit he so desperately wants to inflict upon us...
Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.
In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.
In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.
They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.
Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.
Media coverage will depend on how many seats they stand in if it’s 40 then they will be virtually ignored.
Does it work like that? I would have said that if the Vote Leave machine is behind Boris they will be virtually ignored by the media if they stand in 600 seats; if it's behind BXP they will be all over BBC News even if they only stand in 20.
Media coverage is based on last GE performance, other recent elections and the number of seats they are contesting. It’s not a matter of broadcasters choice but I believe, I might be wrong, determined by the electoral commission. I think the key point is he has 600+ candidates selected and already up and running who would be royally pissed off if they were pulled. Tice is the real bankroller of TBP not banks and it is small change to him.
It does almost feel like a testing of the waters to see how all those candidates react to potentially being told to stand down, and then confirming they are not being stood down if it seems like they will kick up a fuss.
You can bet your life they won’t get their £100 back, either way.
Did they have to pay £100 to be BXP candidate or some such ?
Isn't illegal alien the bloody legal definition in the US of somebody not born in the US there illegally? Not quite the same as pretending you are native American, and by doing so further your academic career, only to find you ain't much more native American than the average man in the street.
I always thought that was what Sting was singing in Englishman in New York.
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
Do we know who the Tory candidate in B&R is? I noted one of the unsuccessful candidates for Monts had a link with the seat and wondered if she might be adopted.
I have to say I would be sceptical about the Tories retaking B&R unless Labour win back their voters in Ystradgynlais. Equally, I could see them taking Wrexham and Ynys Môn from nowhere if things go badly for Corbyn.
Yes, it is. She (and my predecessor Jim Lester) are Ken supporters from way back.
I've been chatting to sources that I trust in Broxtowe. It's a real mess:
* Soubry is definitely standing, and has asked the national LibDems to order the local LibDems not to stand. The local LibDems thought they were the beneficiaries of the Remain Alliance deal and are so far insisting on standing.
* The Tories split three ways between the mainstream council group leader, the Clarkeite liberal wing and an influx of new members, many of them former UKIP. The last group won, and picked a Brexiteer candidate from Wiltshire (though he was pro-Remain in the referendum)
* The Brexit candidate has resigned - not clear that they'll stand.
* Labour have the same local candidate who narrowly lost last time - very environmental, and dismayed to see that the Greens are also standing.
The sources agree that the seat is utterly polarised between hard Remain and hard Leave. The Tories think they're ahead, but nobody really knows.
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
Calling gay men 'tank topped bum boys' is not modern nor liberal.
Being the leading Tory calling for gays to get equal marriage before Cameron or anyone else is both modern and liberal though.
“If gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog.”
Comparing homosexuality to bestiality doesn't sound very modern and liberal to me.
Johnson’s legislative record is markedly more liberal.
Elected to Parliament for the first time in 2001, Johnson rebelled against his own party on several occasions to back LGBT+ rights measures.
Defying the Conservative leadership at the time, Johnson voted in 2003 to abolish Section 28, which banned the “promotion” of homosexuality in schools, and voted in 2004 to permit civil partnerships for same-sex couples.
Alongside George Osborne and John Bercow, Johnson was one of just a handful of Tory MPs who were willing to back the Labour government’s LGBT+ reforms.
Serving as Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016, Johnson led the city’s Pride parade on several occasions.
While attending the event in 2010, Johnson became the highest-ranking Conservative to come out in support of marriage equality in an interview with PinkNews.
He told PinkNews: “If the Conservatives and Liberals can get together in a national coalition and settle their differences, I don’t see why you can’t have gay marriage.”
A liberal rebel in favour of LGBT+ and early advocate of gay marriage. You can shred your 20 year old articles.
Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.
In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.
In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.
Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.
In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.
In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
Do we know who the Tory candidate in B&R is? I noted one of the unsuccessful candidates for Monts had a link with the seat and wondered if she might be adopted.
I have to say I would be sceptical about the Tories retaking B&R unless Labour win back their voters in Ystradgynlais. Equally, I could see them taking Wrexham and Ynys Môn from nowhere if things go badly for Corbyn.
Well, in a LibDem by-election gain, by how much does the LibDem vote typically fall in the subsequent General Election?
In the by-election, the LibDem campaign was based around opposition to a No Deal Brexit. It was not based in favour of Revoke. And the Tories did well, considering the candidate was convicted of fraud and it was at the height of Tory disarray.
Wrecsam, Vale of Clwyd, Gwyr and Ynys Môn are all seats in which I'd make the Tories favourites. By contrast, they may find it harder to retake Cardiff North.
Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
As expected the LDs are the challengers - as Euro and local elections indicated - despite Labour coming second in 2017. But the LDs start a long way adrift and JRM can probably hope for a slice of the BXP 7% since I don't expect they will stand there.
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
He might. I am however wondering where these seats will come from.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
As expected the LDs are the challengers - as Euro and local elections indicated - despite Labour coming second in 2017. But the LDs start a long way adrift and JRM can probably hope for a slice of the BXP 7% since I don't expect they will stand there.
JRM backed both Mays' deal and Boris' deal, if BXP believe what they say about those two deals then he should be regarded as essentially a remainer!
If Farage did heavily reduce the number of seats BXP were going to fight to a bare minimum, does this mean we can reasonably tell him to shut the fuck up if ANY of these situations occur:
Boris with a working majority passes any Brexit deal at all Lib/Lab/SNP "GNU" passes legislation for a second referendum Lib Dem majority revokes A50
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
Do we know who the Tory candidate in B&R is? I noted one of the unsuccessful candidates for Monts had a link with the seat and wondered if she might be adopted.
I have to say I would be sceptical about the Tories retaking B&R unless Labour win back their voters in Ystradgynlais. Equally, I could see them taking Wrexham and Ynys Môn from nowhere if things go badly for Corbyn.
By-election victors tend to hold their seats the first time, especially if the GE follows fairly soon after. There's a tendency for voters to think that their new MP deserves a fair go. My money is on the LibDems.
Wow! For Johnson to get a majority he'll have to get swings in the order of those got by Tony Blair in '97. Ch 4 News.
That's can't be right. The Tories won 318 seats last time, so they need an extra 8, which would require a swing of just 0.24%. Blair required a 4.3% swing in 1997: Leeds North East was the "winning post" seat in 1997 IIRC, and the 1992 majority was 8.6%.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No, all gambling winning are tax free and do not have to be declared.
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
Do we know who the Tory candidate in B&R is? I noted one of the unsuccessful candidates for Monts had a link with the seat and wondered if she might be adopted.
I have to say I would be sceptical about the Tories retaking B&R unless Labour win back their voters in Ystradgynlais. Equally, I could see them taking Wrexham and Ynys Môn from nowhere if things go badly for Corbyn.
Well, in a LibDem by-election gain, by how much does the LibDem vote typically fall in the subsequent General Election?
In the by-election, the LibDem campaign was based around opposition to a No Deal Brexit. It was not based in favour of Revoke. And the Tories did well, considering the candidate was convicted of fraud and it was at the height of Tory disarray.
Wrecsam, Vale of Clwyd, Gwyr and Ynys Môn are all seats in which I'd make the Tories favourites. By contrast, they may find it harder to retake Cardiff North.
It’s a seat with a small electorate that paradoxically tends not to swing a lot. Unless the LibDem is up against a very strong high-profile local candidate I’d make her favourite. Ironically Davies himself would probably have had the best chance of retaking it...
It does make sense that on a national 18% LD poll, there will be constituencies on 8% (say Leicester West) and others where it is 28%. Looks good for a bar chart...
The point about the auto-Labour bump is the most pertinent one for me.
Boris has a fine line to walk between sweeping up all the Leave votes and seeming like a moderate sober statesman who’s also the sensible choice for sensible Britain.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No, all gambling winning are tax free and do not have to be declared.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
As expected the LDs are the challengers - as Euro and local elections indicated - despite Labour coming second in 2017. But the LDs start a long way adrift and JRM can probably hope for a slice of the BXP 7% since I don't expect they will stand there.
Problem for Labour is this.
Libdems know how to run and win fptp elections. They have the money and experience and are therefore well placed to take a huge chunk of REMAIN vote from Labour.
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party however have no such experience, and their predecessors were shit at winning fptp seats. So will take a much smaller slice of the vote from LEAVE supporting tories. Indeed it is the reason they are concentrating on 100 seats, they simply dont have the resource.
I presume Roger only got half the story. I am going to guess the caveat was something like assuming the Tories do "this" badly in Scotland and in London, yadda yadda yadda, then in the remaining seats they will need this mega swing.
What are Channel 4 News on about? Another Snow senior moment?
I didn't see it - but the only explanation I can think of is that they are modelling the prospective Scottish losses and likely southern ones to the LDs, then looking at the swing needed in Con/Lab marginals to achieve a majority.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
i Don’t think you do the national lottery is tax free and betting tax was removed years ago on horse racing but you may just be high lighting you have made a profit
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
He might. I am however wondering where these seats will come from.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
I would guess if the Tories really take Bridgend, then their gains in Wales will be more like 10 seats.
Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
i Don’t think you do the national lottery is tax free and betting tax was removed years ago on horse racing but you may just be high lighting you have made a profit
You 100% don't. I spent nearly 10 years where it was the majority of my income.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No.
Thank you, and to all the others too.
I could have just looked it up but I’m cooking and dealing with a crying baby*
If Farage did heavily reduce the number of seats BXP were going to fight to a bare minimum, does this mean we can reasonably tell him to shut the fuck up if ANY of these situations occur:
Boris with a working majority passes any Brexit deal at all Lib/Lab/SNP "GNU" passes legislation for a second referendum Lib Dem majority revokes A50
??
I suspect that Farage and TBP are desperately trying to get some media. The thinking out loud strategy often works in getting coverage even if they don't follow through with the thinking!
To be honest as I get older I see through all this stuff and have become so cynical about it all! Another example is the MPs who wrote a letter supporting the Duchess of Sussex. Holly Lynch, the MP for Halifax for instance has got a front page in her local paper and indeed positive coverage in national newspapers just in time for an election.
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
He might. I am however wondering where these seats will come from.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
I would guess if the Tories really take Bridgend, then their gains in Wales will be more like 10 seats.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
I don’t know. Watching two at best middle-aged, inarticulate and frankly quite weird posh boys knock lumps out of each other might make her shine by comparison even in her absence.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
I don’t know. Watching two at best middle-aged, inarticulate and frankly quite weird posh boys knock lumps out of each other might make her shine by comparison even in her absence.
Would be odd to have no-one in the debate fighting the remain corner
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No, all gambling winning are tax free and do not have to be declared.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
He might. I am however wondering where these seats will come from.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
I would guess if the Tories really take Bridgend, then their gains in Wales will be more like 10 seats.
I’m not so sure. It’s a seat that’s gentrifying.
Losing a lot of jobs with the engine plant closing though.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
I don’t know. Watching two at best middle-aged, inarticulate and frankly quite weird posh boys knock lumps out of each other might make her shine by comparison even in her absence.
Would be odd to have no-one in the debate fighting the remain corner
That ship has I fear sailed. We are leaving. The question is no longer whether, or how, or even when, but what comes next.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No. It used to be that gambling income was non taxable. I know that gambling law was radically overhauled by the 2005 Gambling Act but I think that was untouched. However someone else may know better and IANAL.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
I don’t know. Watching two at best middle-aged, inarticulate and frankly quite weird posh boys knock lumps out of each other might make her shine by comparison even in her absence.
Would be odd to have no-one in the debate fighting the remain corner
That ship has I fear sailed. We are leaving. The question is no longer whether, or how, or even when, but what comes next.
The Tories going for an election has put the possibility of not leaving back on the table. It may be a long shot, but it is there nevertheless, and motivating a significant slice of voters.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No, gambling is tax free. Otherwise you could make all you losing bets capital write offs.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Comments
Comparing homosexuality to bestiality doesn't sound very modern and liberal to me.
Going back to Boris, pressure should be put on him to turn up and be interviewed at length and maybe we will find out more about the No Deal Brexit he so desperately wants to inflict upon us...
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1189611971982876672
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1189621629950799872
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1189623865145778177
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1189623865145778177?s=21
I have to say I would be sceptical about the Tories retaking B&R unless Labour win back their voters in Ystradgynlais. Equally, I could see them taking Wrexham and Ynys Môn from nowhere if things go badly for Corbyn.
Crikey.
I've been chatting to sources that I trust in Broxtowe. It's a real mess:
* Soubry is definitely standing, and has asked the national LibDems to order the local LibDems not to stand. The local LibDems thought they were the beneficiaries of the Remain Alliance deal and are so far insisting on standing.
* The Tories split three ways between the mainstream council group leader, the Clarkeite liberal wing and an influx of new members, many of them former UKIP. The last group won, and picked a Brexiteer candidate from Wiltshire (though he was pro-Remain in the referendum)
* The Brexit candidate has resigned - not clear that they'll stand.
* Labour have the same local candidate who narrowly lost last time - very environmental, and dismayed to see that the Greens are also standing.
The sources agree that the seat is utterly polarised between hard Remain and hard Leave. The Tories think they're ahead, but nobody really knows.
Completely off topic but I've backed SPACE TRAVELLER at 14s each way for Saturday's Breeders Cup Turf Mile.
https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/06/18/boris-johnson-lgbt-rights-record-anti-gay-slurs-liberal-stance/
Johnson’s legislative record is markedly more liberal.
Elected to Parliament for the first time in 2001, Johnson rebelled against his own party on several occasions to back LGBT+ rights measures.
Defying the Conservative leadership at the time, Johnson voted in 2003 to abolish Section 28, which banned the “promotion” of homosexuality in schools, and voted in 2004 to permit civil partnerships for same-sex couples.
Alongside George Osborne and John Bercow, Johnson was one of just a handful of Tory MPs who were willing to back the Labour government’s LGBT+ reforms.
Serving as Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016, Johnson led the city’s Pride parade on several occasions.
While attending the event in 2010, Johnson became the highest-ranking Conservative to come out in support of marriage equality in an interview with PinkNews.
He told PinkNews: “If the Conservatives and Liberals can get together in a national coalition and settle their differences, I don’t see why you can’t have gay marriage.”
A liberal rebel in favour of LGBT+ and early advocate of gay marriage. You can shred your 20 year old articles.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
If so, how VERY convenient is the timing for Mr. Vaz. His black book must have some interesting names in it!
The voting intention %s add up to 100 but the changes are missing 9 points the percentage losses add up to 30% but the % gains are only 21%
In the by-election, the LibDem campaign was based around opposition to a No Deal Brexit. It was not based in favour of Revoke. And the Tories did well, considering the candidate was convicted of fraud and it was at the height of Tory disarray.
Wrecsam, Vale of Clwyd, Gwyr and Ynys Môn are all seats in which I'd make the Tories favourites. By contrast, they may find it harder to retake Cardiff North.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
Boris with a working majority passes any Brexit deal at all
Lib/Lab/SNP "GNU" passes legislation for a second referendum
Lib Dem majority revokes A50
??
The Tories need 8 gains for a majority of 1, a swing of just 0.24% gives them that
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_North_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
The point about the auto-Labour bump is the most pertinent one for me.
Boris has a fine line to walk between sweeping up all the Leave votes and seeming like a moderate sober statesman who’s also the sensible choice for sensible Britain.
That’s pretty disappointing.
Libdems know how to run and win fptp elections. They have the money and experience and are therefore well placed to take a huge chunk of REMAIN vote from Labour.
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party however have no such experience, and their predecessors were shit at winning fptp seats. So will take a much smaller slice of the vote from LEAVE supporting tories. Indeed it is the reason they are concentrating on 100 seats, they simply dont have the resource.
Alan Duncan going too, but he has always hated BoZo.
I could have just looked it up but I’m cooking and dealing with a crying baby*
(*my excuse and I’m sticking to it)
To be honest as I get older I see through all this stuff and have become so cynical about it all! Another example is the MPs who wrote a letter supporting the Duchess of Sussex. Holly Lynch, the MP for Halifax for instance has got a front page in her local paper and indeed positive coverage in national newspapers just in time for an election.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
I know David personally. Is he standing again. I was his driver in 2010 and he works his constituency well and is popular
https://twitter.com/newpaper24/status/1189616270745976832
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/liberal-democrats-face-being-frozen-out-of-live-tv-debates-general-election
Yet another indication of the need for PR.
Curious,
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.