Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.
Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
The LDs did very badly in NE Somerset in 2017 so they have more room for improvement.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
So, you're OK with personal abuse?
Well, she is. To quote Skinner, if you dish it out you have to be able to take it.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
Is this an approach to life that you share with your pupils?
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No, gambling is tax free. Otherwise you could make all you losing bets capital write offs.
Its less than ten years since we had to pay a tax on either our stake or our winnings?
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
Is this an approach to life that you share with your pupils?
Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.
My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.
The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.
Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.
The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.
Do we know who the Tory candidate in B&R is? I noted one of the unsuccessful candidates for Monts had a link with the seat and wondered if she might be adopted.
According to the Brecon & Radnor Express, the Tory candidate appears to be Fay Jones
She appears to have worked for the NFU and DEFRA, so the Tories have at least managed to select someone who doesn't look completely inappropriate for the seat.
But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
|True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
Thank you for the Arsenal/Liverpool tip - now already up on the night. As ever I’m sure this site will also make me and others money in the election so please do have the donate button ready to go.
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than Labour marginals in the North
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
Is this an approach to life that you share with your pupils?
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than marginals in the North
Steady on! The margin of error on these polls must surely outweigh the differences in swings between them.
Arsenal winning away? Can't see it myself even with both sides playing the reserves.
I like VAR, and it will even out over the season. Leicester has had decisions in favour and against. Ultimately it only makes a difference in a close decision, so by their very nature they are close.
But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
|True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
I have to disagree.
I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than marginals in the North
In Cambridge LibDems held onto their vote share pretty well in 2015 - possibly helped by some Tory tactical voting and their strong presence in local politics - hence having fallen less far, have less upside potential. And the Labour MP has a strong pro-remain profile, as commented on this morning. Whereas in NES the LibDems fell from 22% down into single figures.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?
No, gambling is tax free. Otherwise you could make all you losing bets capital write offs.
Its less than ten years since we had to pay a tax on either our stake or our winnings?
I think Gordon Brown got rid of it in a Budget around 2001/2002, replacing it with a tax on bookies gross profits.
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
History suggests you need to be very cautious about constituency polls. Interestingly, though, if you look at Cambridge you are essentially seeing something that looks very similar to what UNS would predict.
Con is down 6% on the 2017 election in the polls (roughly) Lab is down 15% (so that's a bit more) Green is up less than 10% so clearly some Lab -> Green switchers, but plausible LD is up around 10%. And BRX is up about 7%.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
I have to disagree.
I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.
You are perfectly entitled to your view. In most cases, it is one I would share. For example, I don’t like Tom Watson, but I would not have been happy to see him driven out by Momentum.
I think however in this case she laid herself wide open to reprisal by her appalling behaviour and if she cannot deal with that, that is her problem. She played with fire, she got burned. But unfortunately, the damage she has done could last for decades.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
A lot of stuff doesn’t get widely reported. Ydoethur is a very informative source of information.
But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
|True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
Brexit Party is new.
Oh yes I see now apols. Are Brex going to run a candidate against the Moggster? unlikely I would have thought.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.
For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
I have to disagree.
I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.
You are perfectly entitled to your view. In most cases, it is one I would share. For example, I don’t like Tom Watson, but I would not have been happy to see him driven out by Momentum.
I think however in this case she laid herself wide open to reprisal by her appalling behaviour and if she cannot deal with that, that is her problem. She played with fire, she got burned. But unfortunately, the damage she has done could last for decades.
I take the point, and have a similarly low opinion of a Morgan, but I’m nonetheless very uncomfortable about this.
But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
|True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
Brexit Party is new.
Oh yes I see now apols. Are Brex going to run a candidate against the Moggster? unlikely I would have thought.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.
I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?
And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.
But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
On topic. The two big determining factors shaping this election.
Firstly Brexit Party offering a pact, not getting a pact, creating Peterborough theory in lots of places Tory’s must win and then saying your own fault should have had a pact. What seats should be looking at to gauge if this is happening?
Secondly, non Labour staunch remain lending vote to labour to hurt Tory. What seats should we be looking at to gauge if this happening?
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.
I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?
And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.
But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.
I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?
And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.
But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
But she only sacked her over the trousers?
Perhaps she was bifurcated?
And on that hopefully less angry note, good night.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
Outrageous decisions?
1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.
I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?
And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.
But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
But she only sacked her over the trousers?
Perhaps she was bifurcated?
And on that hopefully less angry note, good night.
No don’t go doctor. It’s too early to get zipped up.
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
It's pretty much in line with the national polls which are putting the Tories on about 36% which is down 7.5% on the last general election.
Thank you (and to others who replied). So if we were to believe this, it would imply the 36% polls are getting the share more right that survation (?) with 29% (from memory)? Lab-Lib movement probably the unknown.
DUP could be in trouble. Tactical voting for the Alliance Party may cost them a couple more seats. Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast must be a pretty much nailed on defeat.
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than marginals in the North
In Cambridge LibDems held onto their vote share pretty well in 2015 - possibly helped by some Tory tactical voting and their strong presence in local politics - hence having fallen less far, have less upside potential. And the Labour MP has a strong pro-remain profile, as commented on this morning. Whereas in NES the LibDems fell from 22% down into single figures.
It does reflect the polls nationally though where the main movement from 2017 is not Labour to Tory but Labour to LD.
That swing will be most pronounced in Remain areas like London, hence I now think the Tories will get a better swing v Labour in London than they do nationally, the reverse of 2015 and 2017 when the Tories got a worse swing in London v Labour than they did nationally. It looks a similar pattern to 2005 where the Tories picked up lots of Labour seats despite their voteshare going up less than 1% as Labour voters in the capital went LD over Iraq, now Labour voters in the capital are going LD over Brexit.
London Labour voters are less tribal than Northern and Midlands Labour voters
DUP could be in trouble. Tactical voting for the Alliance Party may cost them a couple more seats. Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast must be a pretty much nailed on defeat.
There’s a funny scene in TV show teachers when glancing out the window one of them says “I’ve just seen an attractive dinner lady” and the others disbelieve him, you must have imagined it mate.
Subtract dinnerlady and insert DUP MP. And that’s Emma.
So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.
Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.
Doing this modelling for every constituency gives
Con 314 Lab 220 LD 45
This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
Surely Cambridge should be one of the 70 seats where the LibDems and Greens get their act together?
Yes. The constituency poll showed the Greens on 12% in Cambridge which I think is why my model overestimated the LDs. It assumes the LDs get 40% of the Green vote and Labour get the other 40%. That hasn't happened yet in Cambridge. Whether it happens or not, I think the LDs are comfortably ahead of Labour in Cambridge.
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
It's pretty much in line with the national polls which are putting the Tories on about 36% which is down 7.5% on the last general election.
Thank you (and to others who replied). So if we were to believe this, it would imply the 36% polls are getting the share more right that survation (?) with 29% (from memory)? Lab-Lib movement probably the unknown.
It's probably too early to be as precise as that. But the average of the national polls seems to be roughly in line with these constituency polls.
DUP could be in trouble. Tactical voting for the Alliance Party may cost them a couple more seats. Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast must be a pretty much nailed on defeat.
Boris winning a Tory majority and the DUP losing their Northern Ireland majority would not see too many Tories complaining, the Alliance Party are more pro the Boris Deal than the DUP are
Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:
Cambridge:
Con -6% Lab -22% LD +10% Grn +10% Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10% Lab -20% LD +20% Grn +1% Brx +7%
Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
I think that is a fallacy that is easy to fall into. I watched the 1992 election where the polls suggested Labour would do better than they actually did. When about half the votes were in this was clear. At the time I thought that meant that we'd get better than expected results for Labour when the later declarations came in to bring the results into line with the polls.
I read posts with interest but the pulling apart of polling even before the campaign starts may inform some for betting purposes, but I am sitting on the fence over the outcome for now.
All I can say is it looks like it is all to play for between leave and remain
And lots of partisan posts are no doubt to be expected
So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.
Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.
Doing this modelling for every constituency gives
Con 314 Lab 220 LD 45
This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
Surely Cambridge should be one of the 70 seats where the LibDems and Greens get their act together?
Is this some new policy of the LibDems, that everyone has to stand down for them?
The Cambridge Greens are much closer to Labour. In fact, the Labour Council in Cambridge includes people originally elected as Green Councillors.
Getting the Greens to stand down will be much more likely to increase the Labour vote than the LibDem vote.
Why can't the LibDems just behave like everyone else, and fight an election fair and square, without nobbling all the other runners with cunning ruses?
I read posts with interest but the pulling apart of polling even before the campaign starts may inform some for betting purposes, but I am sitting on the fence over the outcome for now.
All I can say is it looks like it is all to play for between leave and remain
And lots of partisan posts are no doubt to be expected
How do you feel about Dom’s bonfire of the Conservative moderates, death of the liberal Tory. It can’t be all bad because what remains will appear United?
This Workington Man stuff looks like another cringeworthy shot in the foot for the Tories.
Haven’t we been here before though? 2017, all those Labour MPs up North in leave constituency’s, Brexit means brexit, crush the saboteurs and get the job done, and Tory focus in Labour heartlands.
So what’s any different this time?
I can think of one big difference. Surely the flaw in trying to reproduce Brexit and Trump win in 2016, or even do as well as May did in 2017 is there are less leavers and more remainers now? How could we forget Grabcocque and his St Gammons Day? My point being He didn’t invent it, was it not Prof Curtice or someone who had scientifically worked it all out.
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
It does.
So why would Boris's team be in favour of this? Surely Boris should want to have a 7-way debate like Cameron dominated in 2015?
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).
Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).
But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
I‘m originally from Nottingham you plum. I know where Loughborough is.
Well, then you can describe it correctly as in Leicestershire.
I’ll describe it as I like. Nowhere did I deny it was in Leicestershire. E.g. Long Eaton is in Derbyshire but still Nottingham(ish). For crying out loud man.
This Workington Man stuff looks like another cringeworthy shot in the foot for the Tories.
Haven’t we been here before though? 2017, all those Labour MPs up North in leave constituency’s, Brexit means brexit, crush the saboteurs and get the job done, and Tory focus in Labour heartlands.
So what’s any different this time?
I can think of one big difference. Surely the flaw in trying to reproduce Brexit and Trump win in 2016, or even do as well as May did in 2017 is there are less leavers and more remainers now? How could we forget Grabcocque and his St Gammons Day? My point being He didn’t invent it, was it not Prof Curtice or someone who had scientifically worked it all out.
What’s St Gammon’s Day? I missed that but sounds, erm, interesting...
Comments
I was counting on Loughborough as a bellwether Con hold, now not so sure.
Lots of flooding recently near loughborough, may make environmental policy feature.
Cambridge:
Con -6%
Lab -22%
LD +10%
Grn +10%
Brx +7%
NE Somerset:
Con -10%
Lab -20%
LD +20%
Grn +1%
Brx +7%
https://tinyurl.com/y2vun5vr
She appears to have worked for the NFU and DEFRA, so the Tories have at least managed to select someone who doesn't look completely inappropriate for the seat.
Polls
POLLS
POLLS! POLLS! POLLS!
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189632188733706240?s=20
Model/Poll
Con 49/44
LD 24/28
Lab 14/14
BXP 8/7
Grn 3/3
I like VAR, and it will even out over the season. Leicester has had decisions in favour and against. Ultimately it only makes a difference in a close decision, so by their very nature they are close.
2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.
3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.
4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.
5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.
6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.
7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.
8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.
Do I need to go on?
She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.
Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).
But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
I guess all parties get a bit much over their leadership.
Con is down 6% on the 2017 election in the polls (roughly)
Lab is down 15% (so that's a bit more)
Green is up less than 10% so clearly some Lab -> Green switchers, but plausible
LD is up around 10%.
And BRX is up about 7%.
I think however in this case she laid herself wide open to reprisal by her appalling behaviour and if she cannot deal with that, that is her problem. She played with fire, she got burned. But unfortunately, the damage she has done could last for decades.
Gallup
MORI
Harris
Audience Selection
Those are some of the pollsters I remember from the 1992 election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992
I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?
And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.
But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
The various coalition options are taking up way too big a % of the market.
Firstly Brexit Party offering a pact, not getting a pact, creating Peterborough theory in lots of places Tory’s must win and then saying your own fault should have had a pact. What seats should be looking at to gauge if this is happening?
Secondly, non Labour staunch remain lending vote to labour to hurt Tory. What seats should we be looking at to gauge if this happening?
Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.
Doing this modelling for every constituency gives
Con 314
Lab 220
LD 45
This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
One more day for Bercow
One man (not him) and his wife (hey)
One more day for Bercow.
More Speaker-related libretto shitposting is available at https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1189531798902054912
And on that hopefully less angry note, good night.
That swing will be most pronounced in Remain areas like London, hence I now think the Tories will get a better swing v Labour in London than they do nationally, the reverse of 2015 and 2017 when the Tories got a worse swing in London v Labour than they did nationally. It looks a similar pattern to 2005 where the Tories picked up lots of Labour seats despite their voteshare going up less than 1% as Labour voters in the capital went LD over Iraq, now Labour voters in the capital are going LD over Brexit.
London Labour voters are less tribal than Northern and Midlands Labour voters
https://twitter.com/jack/status/1189634360472829952?s=21
In reality I guess you want to express it as a band, so anything from “Tory thin majority“ to “Christ there’s no possible Gvt”?
Nicki Morgan standing down , really didn’t see that coming .
Subtract dinnerlady and insert DUP MP. And that’s Emma.
Cleverly by contrast being skewered
https://twitter.com/WilliamClouston/status/1189625289208455168
All I can say is it looks like it is all to play for between leave and remain
And lots of partisan posts are no doubt to be expected
The Cambridge Greens are much closer to Labour. In fact, the Labour Council in Cambridge includes people originally elected as Green Councillors.
Getting the Greens to stand down will be much more likely to increase the Labour vote than the LibDem vote.
Why can't the LibDems just behave like everyone else, and fight an election fair and square, without nobbling all the other runners with cunning ruses?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50243306
Which party would have been likely to spend most on Twitter?
So what’s any different this time?
I can think of one big difference. Surely the flaw in trying to reproduce Brexit and Trump win in 2016, or even do as well as May did in 2017 is there are less leavers and more remainers now? How could we forget Grabcocque and his St Gammons Day? My point being He didn’t invent it, was it not Prof Curtice or someone who had scientifically worked it all out.
Which irks me mightily as an exiled Rutlander.