Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
It does.
So why would Boris's team be in favour of this? Surely Boris should want to have a 7-way debate like Cameron dominated in 2015?
Dominated it. He was marginalised as Nogi of the North won massive victory.
Meanwhile CCHQ think Corbyn is their secret weapon.
Dear God Thomo. Corbyn is a socialist didn’t you know. And this is 2019
Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.
It does.
So why would Boris's team be in favour of this? Surely Boris should want to have a 7-way debate like Cameron dominated in 2015?
Boris thinks he can out-debate Corbyn but is scared of Swinson?
This Workington Man stuff looks like another cringeworthy shot in the foot for the Tories.
Haven’t we been here before though? 2017, all those Labour MPs up North in leave constituency’s, Brexit means brexit, crush the saboteurs and get the job done, and Tory focus in Labour heartlands.
So what’s any different this time?
I can think of one big difference. Surely the flaw in trying to reproduce Brexit and Trump win in 2016, or even do as well as May did in 2017 is there are less leavers and more remainers now? How could we forget Grabcocque and his St Gammons Day? My point being He didn’t invent it, was it not Prof Curtice or someone who had scientifically worked it all out.
What’s St Gammon’s Day? I missed that but sounds, erm, interesting...
It didn’t do for Grab, he done for himself revelling in the death of old folk.
But one of the political scientists came up with it I’m sure. And my point is Boris has to do better than May with less leavers to play with.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
I presume Roger only got half the story. I am going to guess the caveat was something like assuming the Tories do "this" badly in Scotland and in London, yadda yadda yadda, then in the remaining seats they will need this mega swing.
I have just checked. What Gary Gibbon said is "The psephologists are coming out of the their labs and have been crawling over the numbers and what they are all saying is that for Boris Johnson to get a majority some of the numbers he's going to have to overturn in Labour seats are on a scale of the Blair landslide of 1997. An amazing thought.."
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
SF received a bequest in a will of £1.5 million from an Englishman who felt the British state conspired against him. He wanted to stick to fingers up at the establishment! The DUP might find they have a more potent enemy at this election as a consequence.
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
He might. I am however wondering where these seats will come from.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
Labour's majority in Chester in 2017 was almost 10,000.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
How does this work? A political party or candidate can't advertise - presumably a partisan fake news site still can, though?
As I understand it it's the content not the source that will determine whether it is allowed. I'm sure there will be problems with the ban, but it's great to see a social media company actually willing to say they will try to sort the issue out.
I presume Roger only got half the story. I am going to guess the caveat was something like assuming the Tories do "this" badly in Scotland and in London, yadda yadda yadda, then in the remaining seats they will need this mega swing.
I have just checked. What Gary Gibbon said is "The psephologists are coming out of the their labs and have been crawling over the numbers and what they are all saying is that for Boris Johnson to get a majority some of the numbers he's going to have to overturn in Labour seats are on a scale of the Blair landslide of 1997. An amazing thought.."
So not what you said at all then. Some of the numbers in Labour seats. Not all. And that still sounds incorrect / incomplete. Think about it logically. It has to be predicated on Tories losing a load of seats elsewhere in the country.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Who does everyone want to see as a 'Portillo moment'?
Niche choice in my case, but it's Darren Jones (Lab, Bristol NW). He used to work with Mrs Drutt and he's the most insufferable person either of us have ever met at work. We have about thirty years in law firms between us so this is a high bar.
I can't find him longer than evens and the size of the BF exchange market won't buy a pint.
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
It is unacceptable and very worrying
Another reason not to have an election when day light is in short supply IMO. I have a really bad feeling that someone is going to get attacked as the papers crank up division and hatred. It might not be an MP seeking re-election but a foot soldier who is taken unawares...
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
I don't want to discount this without reason but they (Focaldata) don't look like a company who will be publishing their polling tables. I'd want to see one from a company I'd heard from (was it yougov doing this kind of thing last time?).
I wonder if the "we're all up for thwacking our MP with a baseball bat, if that's what it takes" opinion poll of last week has had a bearing on the decision of so many to stand down?
Who does everyone want to see as a 'Portillo moment'?
Niche choice in my case, but it's Darren Jones (Lab, Bristol NW). He used to work with Mrs Drutt and he's the most insufferable person either of us have ever met at work. We have about thirty years in law firms between us so this is a high bar.
I can't find him longer than evens and the size of the BF exchange market won't buy a pint.
I think that Andrew Bridgen is one I would like to see defeated or Rees-Mogg. BJ would be the icing on the cake!
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Who does everyone want to see as a 'Portillo moment'?
Niche choice in my case, but it's Darren Jones (Lab, Bristol NW). He used to work with Mrs Drutt and he's the most insufferable person either of us have ever met at work. We have about thirty years in law firms between us so this is a high bar.
I can't find him longer than evens and the size of the BF exchange market won't buy a pint.
Always good to see the loss of the thick and arrogant, so IDS.
For the sake of the good people of Aberdeen South, Ross 'Handsy' Thomson.
Why dont you just come out and admit how biased your opinion us...
You have to admit that Cleverly was struggling - actually gulping. He became incoherent. Swinson, in contrast, was relaxed yet focused. She has a good rapport with Neil. I don't think Neil respects Cleverly. Cleverly was saying things like:- you and I know that Labour would wreck the economy. He was appealing for support from Neil! Which he didn't get because Neil is a professional.
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
It is unacceptable and very worrying
Another reason not to have an election when day light is in short supply IMO. I have a really bad feeling that someone is going to get attacked as the papers crank up division and hatred. It might not be an MP seeking re-election but a foot soldier who is taken unawares...
I wonder if the "we're all up for thwacking our MP with a baseball bat, if that's what it takes" opinion poll of last week has had a bearing on the decision of so many to stand down?
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
Oh give over. If Leavers had compromised we would have left by now.
The Leave vote enabled the nasty BNP/EDL/UKIP undesirables to come out into the open and sensible people like you and @HYUFD are egging them on as footsoldiers in your culture war.
Who does everyone want to see as a 'Portillo moment'?
Niche choice in my case, but it's Darren Jones (Lab, Bristol NW). He used to work with Mrs Drutt and he's the most insufferable person either of us have ever met at work. We have about thirty years in law firms between us so this is a high bar.
I can't find him longer than evens and the size of the BF exchange market won't buy a pint.
Always good to see the loss of the thick and arrogant, so IDS.
For the sake of the good people of Aberdeen South, Ross 'Handsy' Thomson.
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
It is unacceptable and very worrying
Another reason not to have an election when day light is in short supply IMO. I have a really bad feeling that someone is going to get attacked as the papers crank up division and hatred. It might not be an MP seeking re-election but a foot soldier who is taken unawares...
I do not think we should be intimidated though
On the one hand winter elections in history got big turnouts, despite dark, winter, no excuse for snowflakes not to register a vote by post or on foot. On the other hand though historically “the season to be jolly” was probably more jolly and less stressy in run up to Christmas due to being not such a great consumerfest holiday time as it in in the present day. Truth is although there has been December election, the psychology of how it plays not tested in this modern era.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
How embarrassing. The Tory majority would be notionally 80-odd on these figures. That will teach me not to copy the Grauniad's figures verbatim!
The report also has Tories 308, Labour 233 and LD 34 if 30% of Remain voters vote tactically and Tories 276, Labour 255 and LDs 44 if 40% of Remain voters vote tactically.
So the Tories are ahead regardless but they need to keep Remainers tactical voting down for a majority and to secure Brexit (which should be easier in Tory v Labour seats given Corbyn than Tory v LD seats so I think the LDs will do a bit better than the headline suggests).
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
Some people don't seem to be able to exercise self-control on social media, whereas in face to face situations they would never behave in the same way.
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
Even on this site, female MPs tend to get completely disproportionate stick compared to male MPs. More abusive, less related to facts and policies and more repetitive. It is not just the real idiots with the death threats who need to calm down.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
How embarrassing. The Tory majority would be notionally 80-odd on these figures. That will teach me not to copy the Grauniad's figures verbatim!
The report also has Tories 308, Labour 233 and LD 34 if 30% of Remain voters vote tactically and Tories 276, Labour 255 and LDs 44 if 40% of Remain voters vote tactically.
So the Tories are ahead regardless but they need to keep Remain tactical voting down for a majority and to secure Brexit (which should be easier in Tory v Labour seats given Corbyn than Tory v LD seats so I think the LDs will do a bit better than the headline suggests).
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
Bollox
More than that, this is a post as distasteful as anything a banned poster has posted ☹️
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
I think you'll find Jo Cox was not a "remainer MP trying to overturn the vote".
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
Even on this site, female MPs tend to get completely disproportionate stick compared to male MPs. More abusive, less related to facts and policies and more repetitive. It is not just the real idiots with the death threats who need to calm down.
I didn't know Boris and Jezza were transitioning. The female political figure that seems to get most criticism on here is LauraK.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
How embarrassing. The Tory majority would be notionally 80-odd on these figures. That will teach me not to copy the Grauniad's figures verbatim!
The report also has Tories 308, Labour 233 and LD 34 if 30% of Remain voters vote tactically and Tories 276, Labour 255 and LDs 44 if 40% of Remain voters vote tactically.
So the Tories are ahead regardless but they need to keep Remain tactical voting down for a majority and to secure Brexit (which should be easier in Tory v Labour seats given Corbyn than Tory v LD seats so I think the LDs will do a bit better than the headline suggests).
I’m in a right muddle. I think I want to vote Lib Dem but my Labour MP is very pro-Remain and not exactly on the far left of the party. Tough.
Question is how confident you are that he would go against the Labour Party whip if it comes to the crunch? Otherwise you are just voting for Corbyn (or whoever)
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
Oh give over. If Leavers had compromised we would have left by now.
The Leave vote enabled the nasty BNP/EDL/UKIP undesirables to come out into the open and sensible people like you and @HYUFD are egging them on as footsoldiers in your culture war.
Give over.
If I was an MP and I stood up and did my obvious best to overturn a democratic vote, then I would expect a violent reaction. I would expect death threats. I would anticipate the need for police protection.
The whole point of democracy - votes, referendums, elections - is to take away the anger of war and strife, in the destiny of nations, and turn it into a legal process, with rules and limits, which allow for passionate disagreement but vent the wild anger in a safe way.
The floor of the House of Commons is divided by sword lengths, from the era of duelling.
If you then stand up and say democracy is cancelled, the votes of certain people mean nothing, and must be reversed, well then you are inviting the return of political violence. It is a basic rule of human history. Someone like Soubry has been courting disaster for three years. She needs to stop and see the danger: for all of us,
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
I don't want to discount this without reason but they (Focaldata) don't look like a company who will be publishing their polling tables. I'd want to see one from a company I'd heard from (was it yougov doing this kind of thing last time?).
YouGov did MRP, as did Ashcroft. YouGov did well, Ashcroft did badly. Problem is, YouGov has had some personnel changes when Delta poll started up, so I don't know what they lost in the move. However I still await the YouGov MRP poll with great interest...
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
How embarrassing. The Tory majority would be notionally 80-odd on these figures. That will teach me not to copy the Grauniad's figures verbatim!
The report also has Tories 308, Labour 233 and LD 34 if 30% of Remain voters vote tactically and Tories 276, Labour 255 and LDs 44 if 40% of Remain voters vote tactically.
So the Tories are ahead regardless but they need to keep Remainers tactical voting down for a majority and to secure Brexit (which should be easier in Tory v Labour seats given Corbyn than Tory v LD seats so I think the LDs will do a bit better than the headline suggests).
Do we know the remain tactical vote % 2017, was it as ridiculously as low as 40?
2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority
2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority 2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament 2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
But you won't. Because *shock horror* HYUFD could be right....
He might. I am however wondering where these seats will come from.
I can see the Tories retaking Stroud, capturing Newcastle under Lyme and Bishop Auckland and picking up perhaps four seats in Wales - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North and Bridgend - without making a huge effort. Other realistic targets include Bolsover, Canterbury, Eastbourne, Darlington, North Norfolk, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Barrow, Chester, Lincoln.
But after that I am struggling to see where these gains will come from. And even those won’t offset likely losses in Scotland and the South East. For example, Kensington, for all it’s so marginal and represented by somebody who looks and behaves like a refugee from the Producers, is probably safe for Labour for now given today’s Grenfell report. Meanwhile surely nobody is expecting that idiot Goldsmith to hold Richmond Park.
Labour's majority in Chester in 2017 was almost 10,000.
Agreed, no chance in Chester.
There are quite a few other seats the Tories could win on a good day (and some that are have slimmer majorities than those listed). On a good day, mind:
Crewe and Nantwich, Warwick and Leamington, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Colne Valley, Wakefield, Blackpool South, Dewsbury, Stockton South, Northfield, West Bromwich West, Bassetlaw, Keighley.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility for a good chunk of those to turn blue if the stars align.
I’m in a right muddle. I think I want to vote Lib Dem but my Labour MP is very pro-Remain and not exactly on the far left of the party. Tough.
Question is how confident you are that he would go against the Labour Party whip if it comes to the crunch? Otherwise you are just voting for Corbyn (or whoever)
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
Oh give over. If Leavers had compromised we would have left by now.
The Leave vote enabled the nasty BNP/EDL/UKIP undesirables to come out into the open and sensible people like you and @HYUFD are egging them on as footsoldiers in your culture war.
Give over.
If I was an MP and I stood up and did my obvious best to overturn a democratic vote, then I would expect a violent reaction. I would expect death threats. I would anticipate the need for police protection.
The whole point of democracy - votes, referendums, elections - is to take away the anger of war and strife, in the destiny of nations, and turn it into a legal process, with rules and limits, which allow for passionate disagreement but vent the wild anger in a safe way.
The floor of the House of Commons is divided by sword lengths, from the era of duelling.
If you then stand up and say democracy is cancelled, the votes of certain people mean nothing, and must be reversed, well then you are inviting the return of political violence. It is a basic rule of human history. Someone like Soubry has been courting disaster for three years. She needs to stop and see the danger: for all of us,
Despicable attempt to justify actual death threats. It's one hair's breadth from endorsing them.
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
It is unacceptable and very worrying
Another reason not to have an election when day light is in short supply IMO. I have a really bad feeling that someone is going to get attacked as the papers crank up division and hatred. It might not be an MP seeking re-election but a foot soldier who is taken unawares...
I do not think we should be intimidated though
I would not door knock or deliver leaflets if I was paid for any party at the moment!
On a similar subject: Daniel Finkelstein once said of the 1997 election that the Tories had elaborate plans to mobilise Tory voters but no one to do it! I do wonder if the Tories will suffer the same fate in this election. Some hot headed individuals get very worked up about Brexit but do nothing to get the Tories elected. Membership has declined if not collapsed where as Corbyn has Half a million potential members as foot soldiers! Just saying...
After the events of 2017, can anyone really call this election?
No - Scotland has 59 seats. This is quite an old poll including fieldwork from September.
I don't remember the YouGov MRP figures changing as much as the traditional polls during the 2017GE campaign. And I'm pretty sure the traditional polls were not as good for the Tories in September anyway.
This poll should have anyone opposed to Johnson terrified.
She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).
Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).
But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
I‘m originally from Nottingham you plum. I know where Loughborough is.
Well, then you can describe it correctly as in Leicestershire.
I’ll describe it as I like. Nowhere did I deny it was in Leicestershire. E.g. Long Eaton is in Derbyshire but still Nottingham(ish). For crying out loud man.
Why dont you just come out and admit how biased your opinion us...
You have to admit that Cleverly was struggling - actually gulping. He became incoherent. Swinson, in contrast, was relaxed yet focused. She has a good rapport with Neil. I don't think Neil respects Cleverly. Cleverly was saying things like:- you and I know that Labour would wreck the economy. He was appealing for support from Neil! Which he didn't get because Neil is a professional.
Absolutely. I am certainly not in Roger's camp and it was absolutely clear to me that Cleverly was being taken apart very professionally by Neil.
The big issue is these were all obvious attack lines that any interviewer worth their salt is going to use against the party Chairman as we run into a campaign. And yet Cleverly seemed completely unprepared and relied just on soundbites and deflections. A very sub-standard performance. I hope the Tories start putting up some better spokespeople.
We need a Royal Commission or Speakers Conference into the potential destruction of representative democracy through the intimidation of MPs.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
It is unacceptable and very worrying
Another reason not to have an election when day light is in short supply IMO. I have a really bad feeling that someone is going to get attacked as the papers crank up division and hatred. It might not be an MP seeking re-election but a foot soldier who is taken unawares...
I do not think we should be intimidated though
I would not door knock or deliver leaflets if I was paid for any party at the moment!
On a similar subject: Daniel Finkelstein once said of the 1997 election that the Tories had elaborate plans to mobilise Tory voters but no one to do it! I do wonder if the Tories will suffer the same fate in this election. Some hot headed individuals get very worked up about Brexit but do nothing to get the Tories elected. Membership has declined if not collapsed where as Corbyn has Half a million potential members as foot soldiers! Just saying...
Erhhh rather than declining isn't the Tory membership the highest its been in ages (170k or something), while its Labour who have been losing members (albeit still with way more than the Tories)?
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
This is wrong and sad. And it's not all Brexit, a lot of it is just the horrible effect of social media, making everyone angrier. That's what it does
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
Oh give over. If Leavers had compromised we would have left by now.
The Leave vote enabled the nasty BNP/EDL/UKIP undesirables to come out into the open and sensible people like you and @HYUFD are egging them on as footsoldiers in your culture war.
Give over.
If I was an MP and I stood up and did my obvious best to overturn a democratic vote, then I would expect a violent reaction. I would expect death threats. I would anticipate the need for police protection.
The whole point of democracy - votes, referendums, elections - is to take away the anger of war and strife, in the destiny of nations, and turn it into a legal process, with rules and limits, which allow for passionate disagreement but vent the wild anger in a safe way.
The floor of the House of Commons is divided by sword lengths, from the era of duelling.
If you then stand up and say democracy is cancelled, the votes of certain people mean nothing, and must be reversed, well then you are inviting the return of political violence. It is a basic rule of human history. Someone like Soubry has been courting disaster for three years. She needs to stop and see the danger: for all of us,
Balls. And a reminder of your fondness for forms of fascism. Or was that SeanT ?
If I was a soft Tory I might be tempted by the Liberal Democrats.
I certainly wouldn’t by “I’m with Jo”, and her divisive identity politics.
Soft Tories are key (and have been fertile territory for the Libs since the 1970s). 2010 showed how difficult it is for the LDs to make seat gains if the Tory vote isn’t falling.
Ignore the headline and the tactical voting hypotheticals, we have the first proper MRP poll reported in the Guardian. Sample of 46,000 and seat totals of:
Conservative 364 Labour 189 Scottish National 52 Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
I don't want to discount this without reason but they (Focaldata) don't look like a company who will be publishing their polling tables. I'd want to see one from a company I'd heard from (was it yougov doing this kind of thing last time?).
YouGov did MRP, as did Ashcroft. YouGov did well, Ashcroft did badly. Problem is, YouGov has had some personnel changes when Delta poll started up, so I don't know what they lost in the move. However I still await the YouGov MRP poll with great interest...
as do I but I've learnt to take all polls and regressions with a pinch of salt. this particular one is short on detail on how it was done and who was polled.
Comments
Facebook on the other hand, know every left handed half Asian cat loving non-smokers in Bognor and will let you advertise directly to them.
I've been in hotels that occupy more acres than Rutland.
Meanwhile CCHQ think Corbyn is their secret weapon.
Dear God Thomo. Corbyn is a socialist didn’t you know. And this is 2019
FB wont follow.
We are courting disaster by allowing this to continue.
MPs are quitting in fear.
But one of the political scientists came up with it I’m sure. And my point is Boris has to do better than May with less leavers to play with.
Conservative 364
Labour 189
Scottish National 52
Liberal Democrat 23
Conservative majority of 44 would be their largest since 1987.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/tactical-voting-could-deliver-remain-victory-in-election-study
Very depressing.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1189630063748235265
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1189638740060332032
189 Labour MPs would be worse than Foot's 1983 trouncing for the party and the lowest Labour seat total since 1935
I certainly wouldn’t by “I’m with Jo”, and her divisive identity politics.
Not.
We need new long, long sentences for these people.
Niche choice in my case, but it's Darren Jones (Lab, Bristol NW). He used to work with Mrs Drutt and he's the most insufferable person either of us have ever met at work. We have about thirty years in law firms between us so this is a high bar.
I can't find him longer than evens and the size of the BF exchange market won't buy a pint.
For the sake of the good people of Aberdeen South, Ross 'Handsy' Thomson.
Swinson getting punted would be highly amusing.
But Remainer MPs who have been trying to overturn the vote have no excuse, they should have expected this. They are literally saying to voters: your vote does not count, you have no say, you should shut up and go away and let me decide what happens to you and your family and your country. You are inferior.
If people say that then they tend to get killed. This is historical fact, not hysteria.
The Leave vote enabled the nasty BNP/EDL/UKIP undesirables to come out into the open and sensible people like you and @HYUFD are egging them on as footsoldiers in your culture war.
So the Tories are ahead regardless but they need to keep Remainers tactical voting down for a majority and to secure Brexit (which should be easier in Tory v Labour seats given Corbyn than Tory v LD seats so I think the LDs will do a bit better than the headline suggests).
She's not the girl I used to know
Forever screaming all the day and night
She used to be a diplomat
But now she's down the laundromat
They washed her mind and now she finds it hard
I know her name
But now she never seems the same
She don't talk to me
'Cause she can't take no sympathy
Because she's highly strung
Oh, highly strung, she's undone
Highly strung
Oh, highly strung, she's undone
If I was an MP and I stood up and did my obvious best to overturn a democratic vote, then I would expect a violent reaction. I would expect death threats. I would anticipate the need for police protection.
The whole point of democracy - votes, referendums, elections - is to take away the anger of war and strife, in the destiny of nations, and turn it into a legal process, with rules and limits, which allow for passionate disagreement but vent the wild anger in a safe way.
The floor of the House of Commons is divided by sword lengths, from the era of duelling.
If you then stand up and say democracy is cancelled, the votes of certain people mean nothing, and must be reversed, well then you are inviting the return of political violence. It is a basic rule of human history. Someone like Soubry has been courting disaster for three years. She needs to stop and see the danger: for all of us,
There are quite a few other seats the Tories could win on a good day (and some that are have slimmer majorities than those listed). On a good day, mind:
Crewe and Nantwich, Warwick and Leamington, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Colne Valley, Wakefield, Blackpool South, Dewsbury, Stockton South, Northfield, West Bromwich West, Bassetlaw, Keighley.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility for a good chunk of those to turn blue if the stars align.
That’s the problem - I don’t want my vote to be counted as pro Corbyn but I do want to remain in the EU.
On a similar subject:
Daniel Finkelstein once said of the 1997 election that the Tories had elaborate plans to mobilise Tory voters but no one to do it! I do wonder if the Tories will suffer the same fate in this election. Some hot headed individuals get very worked up about Brexit but do nothing to get the Tories elected. Membership has declined if not collapsed where as Corbyn has Half a million potential members as foot soldiers! Just saying...
This poll should have anyone opposed to Johnson terrified.
The big issue is these were all obvious attack lines that any interviewer worth their salt is going to use against the party Chairman as we run into a campaign. And yet Cleverly seemed completely unprepared and relied just on soundbites and deflections. A very sub-standard performance. I hope the Tories start putting up some better spokespeople.
And a reminder of your fondness for forms of fascism. Or was that SeanT ?
Soft Tories are key (and have been fertile territory for the Libs since the 1970s). 2010 showed how difficult it is for the LDs to make seat gains if the Tory vote isn’t falling.