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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming election

Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    first .. like Boris
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited October 2019
    From last thread: viewcode said: "I am not @isam and cannot speak for him, but I think it was value betting. 'Value" is when the probability implied by the odds grossly mismatch what the punter believes to be the actual probability of the event. The bet is purchased on the assumption that the probability will eventually converge, enabling the bet to be traded out of at a profit. This is how professional gamblers make a profit and I think it's the only strategy that actually works.

    If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson."

    Yes, I did know that already - I was teasing isam.

    But seriously I`m reluctant to trade out of bets on the thinking that you are paying the bookie`s turn twice. Betfair heavily promotes its cashout facility as it is very lucrative.

    I`m happy to be educated otherwise on this point.
  • Top piece Alastair, which means I largely agree with it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Fourth like Labour. In Scotland
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Paul nuttall in the picture in those days when UKIP had voters. Under 100,000 this time round for the kippers
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Re the Brexit Party

    If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Excellent article. I'm holding fire on betting for now, except have bet a little on lib dems at under 40 seats. They're essentially a new party now and suspect they may do much better in votes rather than seats.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Any polls out yet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Speak for yourself, I know all. But I'm not telling.

    But being serious, but assumptions at the start of the campaign are

    1) I think more of the Labour ones will return than the Tories - the consequences of failure are higher

    2] I think they will.

    3) I think it will be a trend, and more effective than last time.

    4) Agreed, and they will have limited increases as a result.

    5) Depends how many seats they stand in. If it is a lot, they will cost the Tories the election. The deal is not exactly enthused over, and people love a simple rejection of the complex.

    6) Depends on the seat and if someone is a remainer who hates both or a leaver who hates both. Corbyn's apparent weakness within his own party might be come to be seen as a strength as his personal issues will seem less problematic.

    7) Wales will look like the Tories making a breakthrough, but won't.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Stocky said:

    viewcode said: "I am not @isam and cannot speak for him, but I think it was value betting. 'Value" is when the probability implied by the odds grossly mismatch what the punter believes to be the actual probability of the event. The bet is purchased on the assumption that the probability will eventually converge, enabling the bet to be traded out of at a profit. This is how professional gamblers make a profit and I think it's the only strategy that actually works.

    If you knew that already please accept my apologies, but it was a teaching moment and I thought other readers may appreciate the lesson."

    Yes, I did know that already - I was teasing isam.

    But seriously I`m reluctant to trade out of bets on the thinking that you are paying the bookie`s turn twice. Betfair heavily promotes its cashout facility as it is very lucrative.

    I`m happy to be educated otherwise on this point.

    If you find what you regard as a serious enough mismatch (an extreme example might be my 1000/1 on Romney), the bookie's turn is not really relevant.

    You're right about the cashout, particularly in a market with many variables (the Democratic nomination one, for example). Far better to determine you own lays on a case by case basis.
  • Paul nuttall in the picture in those days when UKIP had voters. Under 100,000 this time round for the kippers

    Please, it is His Excellency Professor Sir Paul Nuttall GCMG DSM, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of Federalists.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    PaulM said:

    Re the Brexit Party

    If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?

    First question is how many seats they will contest.
  • IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour. In Scotland

    It's funny, because it's true.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    PaulM said:

    Re the Brexit Party

    If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?

    Perhaps a welsh result.... failing that look at leave 70% plus seats held by labour, where disintegration of the WC vote could happen
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Paul nuttall in the picture in those days when UKIP had voters. Under 100,000 this time round for the kippers

    Please, it is His Excellency Professor Sir Paul Nuttall GCMG DSM, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of Federalists.
    I know him as the one before the one with the racey racist bird
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Yes, 1 will decide the election.

    3 doesn’t feel right to me. In a Brexit election I would expect the trend to continue, reflecting the replacement of class with age/education as the principal driver of voting behaviour. I would be amazed if swings are remotely uniform this time.

    On 4 I would expect swings in a pattern broadly the reverse of 2015. The LibDems will have big upside in areas of precious strength where they fell to third post-coalition. I’d also expect some big surges in Central and Inner London - the risk here is that these extra votes are wasted.

    LibDem success depends not only on their share rising but the Tories need to take a knock too, at least in the south, for them to start winning seats. This plays into 6.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    An excellent thread header - thorough, objective and admitting what the author doesn't know.

    I would add an eighth known unknown:

    - will Corbyn outperform as he did in 2017 or continue the collapse that we've seen this year?

    It's partly, but not explicitly, covered in 6).

    And a ninth:

    - to what extent will there be a Swinsgasm if the Lib Dems get more publicity during the campaign?

    Also partly covered in 4).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Fishing said:

    An excellent thread header - thorough, objective and admitting what the author doesn't know.

    I would add an eighth known unknown:

    - will Corbyn outperform as he did in 2017 or continue the collapse that we've seen this year?

    It's partly, but not explicitly, covered in 6).

    And a ninth:

    - to what extent will there be a Swinsgasm if the Lib Dems get more publicity during the campaign?

    Also partly covered in 4).

    Yes, but like the Tory rating, not be as high as before

    Moderately.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Ave_it said:

    Any polls out yet?

    I think there's been one about Watford's survival chances.. not looking good...
  • Good piece Alastair.

    Regarding BXP - I think they're far more likely to poll single digits than high teens, primarily scooping up Leavers who would never under any circumstances vote Tory.

    May sound cold hearted but I frankly don't think many BXP voters give a shit about NI being cut adrift so long as they get out.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Any polls out yet?

    I think there's been one about Watford's survival chances.. not looking good...
    😠
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    BXP 0-9 seats still on offer at an amazing 1.17 on BFE
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Would be huge. Although even then might depend on which seats they stand in - it reduces the chance the Tories will see losses that cost them a majority, but the potential remains.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    perhaps there was a deal with the Tory Party all along that they would keep up the pretence that they would contest all seats so Corbyn would think he had a chance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kle4 said:

    Would be huge. Although even then might depend on which seats they stand in - it reduces the chance the Tories will see losses that cost them a majority, but the potential remains.
    Farage is this election's Ross Perot.

    Discuss. :smiley:
  • perhaps there was a deal with the Tory Party all along that they would keep up the pretence that they would contest all seats so Corbyn would think he had a chance.
    I think this is more like Corbyn going "BRING IT ON!" after his attempts to frustrate an election failed.

    This is a face saving attempt to suggest its your idea. When ever Arron Banks isn't backing the BXP it is dead and buried already whatever they say.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    On point 1 you'd expect Labour to retain non-tactical voters (i.e. normal ones...) apart from extreme leavers who are probably BXP if they stand and DNV otherwise. Still can't see many moving to the Tories who didn't already do that in 2017.

    For the Tories it feels much harder to judge. There is a good chunk of support, including former members, even MPs, who don't feel they can vote for a party that's swapped economic rationalism for populist nationalism. On the other hand there's a chunk of hard brexiters who seem to be happy with Boris's deal. Which of those groups is bigger?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Any polls out yet?

    I think there's been one about Watford's survival chances.. not looking good...
    😠
    Well you've been watching them.. you ought not to be surprised...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    The LibDems could take a third of the Labour 2017 Remain vote - and yet still hardly win any extra seats.

    The Tories could take a third of the Labour 2017 Leave vote and win a hat full.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    No money was spaffed, you do understand how a bet struck at 500/1 then trades at 16/1 can be profitable.

    Yeah, the trick is to find some mug to take it off your hands...
    The same people that are convinced that David Miliband is going to be next Labour leader?

    Also the name Andrew Yang will always be remembered with fondness by me.
    Not as much as Marco Rubio surely.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    Would be huge. Although even then might depend on which seats they stand in - it reduces the chance the Tories will see losses that cost them a majority, but the potential remains.
    Might cost the LDs some seats where BXP voters in remain territory go Con where BXP stand aside
  • As an aside I assume Charlie Elphick will be unable to stand as a Tory candidate in Dover and Deal as he is awaiting trial and suspended from the party.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    The LibDems could take a third of the Labour 2017 Remain vote - and yet still hardly win any extra seats.

    The Tories could take a third of the Labour 2017 Leave vote and win a hat full.

    in both cases, its a big IF
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Corbyn@990 - £5

    The bet I did not make.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    They'd better hurry up. It's less than two months to the election and polling slips have to be printed. Isn't there a point beyond which you can't withdraw your name?

    Incidentally, if Farage says to two hundred people "Bog off, I've decided you can't stand. Soz, xxx Nige", are they just going to do so or will they stand anyway?

    And...what about Jay Aston?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    viewcode said:

    They'd better hurry up. It's less than two months to the election and polling slips have to be printed. Isn't there a point beyond which you can't withdraw your name?

    Incidentally, if Farage says to two hundred people "Bog off, I've decided you can't stand. Soz, xxx Nige", are they just going to do so or will they stand anyway?

    And...what about Jay Aston?
    Nominations close on Thursday 14th November at 4pm.
  • Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament
  • As an aside I assume Charlie Elphick will be unable to stand as a Tory candidate in Dover and Deal as he is awaiting trial and suspended from the party.

    Wikipedia doesn't list a Tory candidate for 2019 yet. If its going to be a new candidate they need to get a move on.
  • Alistair said:


    No money was spaffed, you do understand how a bet struck at 500/1 then trades at 16/1 can be profitable.

    Yeah, the trick is to find some mug to take it off your hands...
    The same people that are convinced that David Miliband is going to be next Labour leader?

    Also the name Andrew Yang will always be remembered with fondness by me.
    Not as much as Marco Rubio surely.
    Yeah, thank goodness for that, I would have been going to the poorhouse but for Marco Rubio.

    Explains why I'm so bullish on Trump this time.

    #FightingTheLastWar
  • Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn@990 - £5

    The bet I did not make.

    Could have been worse, you could have been the one laying Corbyn at 990.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    kle4 said:

    Would be huge. Although even then might depend on which seats they stand in - it reduces the chance the Tories will see losses that cost them a majority, but the potential remains.
    Depends if it also comes with a recommendtion to "vote for the candidate in your seat pledging to ensure Brexit." That effectively is Farage saying "Vote Tory" in virtually all seats. Which would be a thing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited October 2019

    Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
    Calling gay men 'tank topped bum boys' is not modern nor liberal.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Not sure what to think about BXP tactically standing down candidates. I could see a LD/Lab line of “your local Conservative candidate has been endorsed by Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party” being very successful in peeling off moderate soft-Remain Conservative voters...
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    The LibDems could take a third of the Labour 2017 Remain vote - and yet still hardly win any extra seats.

    The Tories could take a third of the Labour 2017 Leave vote and win a hat full.

    Not sure - you'd have to look at the geographical distribution of the Labour remain vote to back that up, but it seems likely there's going to be a high level of tactical voting among those who are politically engaged enough to prioritise remain. So a third of the Labour 2017 remain vote would likely see Labour massively reduced in seats where the Lib Dems can win and hardly touched in seats where they can't.

    I agree on the second point.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    IanB2 said:

    BXP 0-9 seats still on offer at an amazing 1.17 on BFE
    If Farage wants to stand at all he should stand in the leave-iest LD-LAB marginal he can find. No idea where that is.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PaulM said:

    Re the Brexit Party

    If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?

    Thurrock, Hartlepool.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
    2015 - Modern liberal Remainer Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian Remainer May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Brexiteer Boris as Tory leader = ???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    Fair enough, it's not all about BXP choosing to stand - Boris needs to maintain his polling, and Corbyn improve his, both of which might make BXP irrelevant.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019

    Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    I completely agree, though I suppose it might split the difference if Farage endorses Boris.

    That said it would presumably drive off other voters, and I would have though Boris would like to be able to position himself as between a manufactured choice of Farage on one extreme and Remain on the other. I’d think that’s the best way to make Farage a “used to be Labour but..” depository.
  • Looking at the teams the 12/5 on Arsenal to win tonight looks like free money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895

    Not sure what to think about BXP tactically standing down candidates. I could see a LD/Lab line of “your local Conservative candidate has been endorsed by Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party” being very successful in peeling off moderate soft-Remain Conservative voters...

    To the Lib Dems maybe. Not to Labour :)

    A soft pedalled BXP helps the Tories overall though I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    viewcode said:

    They'd better hurry up. It's less than two months to the election and polling slips have to be printed. Isn't there a point beyond which you can't withdraw your name?

    Incidentally, if Farage says to two hundred people "Bog off, I've decided you can't stand. Soz, xxx Nige", are they just going to do so or will they stand anyway?

    And...what about Jay Aston?
    Having her mind made up for her?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    Jeremy Corbyn plays the class war card in a letter to his supporters 'We both know Britain is run for the selfish interests of the top 1 per cent. Our Government works only for the ultra-rich, our media is rigged in their pockets and our systems are rigged to make their lives better and ours worse. This isn't fair. But we can make it fair.'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-2019-boris-johnson-and-jeremy-corbyn-in-nhs-war-of-words-on-day-one-of-campaign-a4274466.html
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Drutt said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP 0-9 seats still on offer at an amazing 1.17 on BFE
    If Farage wants to stand at all he should stand in the leave-iest LD-LAB marginal he can find. No idea where that is.
    Burnley probably
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2019
    Barack Obama challenges 'woke' culture

    Before withdrawing from the race, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand went on television to apologise for using the term "illegal alien" in the past.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50239261

    Isn't illegal alien the bloody legal definition in the US of somebody not born in the US there illegally? Not quite the same as pretending you are native American, and by doing so further your academic career, only to find you ain't much more native American than the average man in the street.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Corbyn plays the class war card in a letter to his supporters 'We both know Britain is run for the selfish interests of the top 1 per cent. Our Government works only for the ultra-rich, our media is rigged in their pockets and our systems are rigged to make their lives better and ours worse. This isn't fair. But we can make it fair.'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-2019-boris-johnson-and-jeremy-corbyn-in-nhs-war-of-words-on-day-one-of-campaign-a4274466.html

    In today's other shocks, Boris Johnson talks about 'getting Brexit done' and refers to 'dither and delay'.
  • viewcode said:

    They'd better hurry up. It's less than two months to the election and polling slips have to be printed. Isn't there a point beyond which you can't withdraw your name?

    Incidentally, if Farage says to two hundred people "Bog off, I've decided you can't stand. Soz, xxx Nige", are they just going to do so or will they stand anyway?

    And...what about Jay Aston?
    Having her mind made up for her?
    I heard she's quit, as she Can't Stand The Heat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Barack Obama challenges 'woke' culture

    Before withdrawing from the race, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand went on television to apologise for using the term "illegal alien" in the past.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50239261

    Isn't illegal alien the bloody legal definition in the US of somebody not born in the US there illegally?

    One of my favourite Genesis tracks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
    I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.

    They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.

    Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Drutt said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP 0-9 seats still on offer at an amazing 1.17 on BFE
    If Farage wants to stand at all he should stand in the leave-iest LD-LAB marginal he can find. No idea where that is.
    I know the Tories were second there in 2015 but I'm guessing Burnley.
  • Could someone tell SPIN to pull their finger out? 80% of election markets perma-suspended.

    Con Seats and Lab seats are both up, so there's no excuse for Con-Lab supremacy to be suspended other than an attempt to get double house margin out of people who really want to place that bet.
  • AndyJS said:

    Barack Obama challenges 'woke' culture

    Before withdrawing from the race, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand went on television to apologise for using the term "illegal alien" in the past.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50239261

    Isn't illegal alien the bloody legal definition in the US of somebody not born in the US there illegally?

    One of my favourite Genesis tracks.
    I haven't heard "Woke Culture". Clearly they were many years ahead of their time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    In a parallel universe, where Cameron had been talked out of his stupid referendum by Osborne, Soubry would be about to become Tory MP in Rushcliffe.
  • Is this what a black swan looks like?

    Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.

    In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.

    In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/boris-johnson-knew-of-potential-conflict-of-interest-says-jennifer-arcuri?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    Objectively they should do so if they want to live up to their name.

    Otherwise they should rename themselves the No Deal Party.

    If they do withdraw in most constituencies, I'd say a working Con Maj is highly likely.

    PM Boris until 2023-4 at least.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    You will not be hearing my forecast of a 60 seat Con majority after this point.

    Come on Jez!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Are there are c40 leaver seats where TBP would be the only realistic challenger to Labour?

    Huge bonus for the Tories if so.

    If they are legitimate Tory targets then the news is not so good.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    AndyJS said:

    PaulM said:

    Re the Brexit Party

    If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?

    Thurrock, Hartlepool.
    and thereafter somewhere in Lincs or Derbys at a guess.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    perhaps there was a deal with the Tory Party all along that they would keep up the pretence that they would contest all seats so Corbyn would think he had a chance.
    Well if they concentrate on Labour seats they are obviously helping the Tories, whether there is an agreement in place or not. I wonder if it will work? Seems a rather obvious ploy and Labour could use it against them on the doorsteps.
  • Is this what a black swan looks like?

    Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.

    In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.

    In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/boris-johnson-knew-of-potential-conflict-of-interest-says-jennifer-arcuri?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Amazing timing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Labour are 100-1 against in Aberdeen South, a seat they held from 1997 to 2010.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    perhaps there was a deal with the Tory Party all along that they would keep up the pretence that they would contest all seats so Corbyn would think he had a chance.

    And doubly ironic if in practice BXP would have taken more votes from Labour
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    I see Trump is conflicted about dogs. One of them is an American hero but other ones are pathetic and die whimpering like a dirty rotten Muslim terrorist.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.

    They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.

    Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.

    Media coverage will depend on how many seats they stand in if it’s 40 then they will be virtually ignored.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
    I still expect May to have got a higher voteshare than Boris or Cameron but Boris to get a majority as Cameron did in 2015
    In light of this post we should all pile on a Labour landslide.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Such a shame he didn’t quite make the 50.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    SunnyJim said:

    Are there are c40 leaver seats where TBP would be the only realistic challenger to Labour?

    Huge bonus for the Tories if so.

    If they are legitimate Tory targets then the news is not so good.

    There are seats where there's not really any realistic challenger to Labour which are heavily leave. I guess those are the best bet. The difficulty is maybe that most of the remain voters in those seats are Labour voters, and it's hard to say how many of the Labour leavers care that much about leaving. Maybe enough for a BXP win if given a clear run but by no means certain.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    PaulM said:

    Re the Brexit Party

    If they were to win any seats, which would be the most likely ? Alastair previously suggetsed they would win 4, and apparently 0 is better than evens, which suggest that the bookies think they will win at least one. If so which is the most likely candidate ?

    Thurrock, Hartlepool.
    and thereafter somewhere in Lincs or Derbys at a guess.
    To be fair, I can see a couple of the seats in rural Norfolk or Cambridgeshire falling for Brexit (especially the seats with Wisbech and Kings Lynn). It's very small c conservative and very leave.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    kinabalu said:

    You will not be hearing my forecast of a 60 seat Con majority after this point.

    Come on Jez!

    Why? Is he having trouble performing?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    SunnyJim said:

    Are there are c40 leaver seats where TBP would be the only realistic challenger to Labour?

    Huge bonus for the Tories if so.

    If they are legitimate Tory targets then the news is not so good.

    Well it might not be.

    I can't help thinking that the Brexit Party's residual vote at the moment is Labour leaning leavers. The Tory inclined leavers have already gone home. So if the TBP pull candidates I think it will help Labour rather than the Tories. (Good prediction - it can't be falsified.)
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    nichomar said:

    I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.

    They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.

    Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.

    Media coverage will depend on how many seats they stand in if it’s 40 then they will be virtually ignored.
    Does it work like that? I would have said that if the Vote Leave machine is behind Boris they will be virtually ignored by the media if they stand in 600 seats; if it's behind BXP they will be all over BBC News even if they only stand in 20.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2019
    Russian actress sitting in business class is dragged off her flight after branding fellow passengers 'plebs' who 'buy tickets with air miles'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7631261/Russian-actress-dragged-flight-branding-fellow-passengers-plebs.html

    She's quite right, got to keep the riff raff out of business class.... especially two bit celebs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    Looking at the teams the 12/5 on Arsenal to win tonight looks like free money.

    It’s also the first Liverpool v Arsenal fixture I’ve missed since August 2012, which was the last time Arsenal won at Anfield.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    SunnyJim said:

    Are there are c40 leaver seats where TBP would be the only realistic challenger to Labour?

    Huge bonus for the Tories if so.

    If they are legitimate Tory targets then the news is not so good.

    Well it might not be.

    I can't help thinking that the Brexit Party's residual vote at the moment is Labour leaning leavers. The Tory inclined leavers have already gone home. So if the TBP pull candidates I think it will help Labour rather than the Tories. (Good prediction - it can't be falsified.)
    I would agree. I don’t think, for example, that they would win Darlington or Bishop Auckland but especially in the latter they could easily steal enough Labour votes to let the Tories win by default.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    Thanks to stocky, noneoftheabove, Paul and SirNorfolk for pointing out the (negatively) related nature of two parts of my Gove PM punt.

    As you're all making the same point I'll very seriously reconsider whether to back it, and there's every chance I'll be thanking you for £5 saved in the new year.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour are 100-1 against in Aberdeen South, a seat they held from 1997 to 2010.

    One of my two interests in Scotland. You got both right in 2017. I hear it'll be between SNP and Lib Dem.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited October 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Looking at the teams the 12/5 on Arsenal to win tonight looks like free money.

    It’s also the first Liverpool v Arsenal fixture I’ve missed since August 2012, which was the last time Arsenal won at Anfield.
    Liverpool v Arsenal league cup matches haunt me.

    In December 2006 I drove to Liverpool in bad weather to watch the match only to see it postponed, and then we lost the rescheduled match 6-3.
  • SunnyJim said:

    Are there are c40 leaver seats where TBP would be the only realistic challenger to Labour?

    Huge bonus for the Tories if so.

    If they are legitimate Tory targets then the news is not so good.

    Well it might not be.

    I can't help thinking that the Brexit Party's residual vote at the moment is Labour leaning leavers. The Tory inclined leavers have already gone home. So if the TBP pull candidates I think it will help Labour rather than the Tories. (Good prediction - it can't be falsified.)
    This feels trivially pollable.

    Do we know from YouGov crosstabs who current TBP supporters voted for in 2017, for example?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Polruan said:

    nichomar said:

    I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.

    They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.

    Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.

    Media coverage will depend on how many seats they stand in if it’s 40 then they will be virtually ignored.
    Does it work like that? I would have said that if the Vote Leave machine is behind Boris they will be virtually ignored by the media if they stand in 600 seats; if it's behind BXP they will be all over BBC News even if they only stand in 20.
    Media coverage is based on last GE performance, other recent elections and the number of seats they are contesting. It’s not a matter of broadcasters choice but I believe, I might be wrong, determined by the electoral commission. I think the key point is he has 600+ candidates selected and already up and running who would be royally pissed off if they were pulled. Tice is the real bankroller of TBP not banks and it is small change to him.
  • viewcode said:

    They'd better hurry up. It's less than two months to the election and polling slips have to be printed. Isn't there a point beyond which you can't withdraw your name?

    Incidentally, if Farage says to two hundred people "Bog off, I've decided you can't stand. Soz, xxx Nige", are they just going to do so or will they stand anyway?

    And...what about Jay Aston?
    She's in The Land of Make Believe
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Is this what a black swan looks like?

    Boris Johnson was aware there was a potential conflict of interest in his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri, the US businesswoman has claimed, on the eve of the publication of an inquiry into how she secured a £100,000 government grant.

    In an interview for Bloomberg Businessweek, Arcuri also said that a senior official at the then London mayor’s promotional agency London & Partners (L&P) was renting a room in her Shoreditch live/work space in 2013. Around that time Johnson visited Arcuri in the property and the agency was sponsoring her events.

    In a further embarrassment to the prime minister, Arcuri said Johnson was aware of her business links to the former city trader and Libor-rigger, Tom Hayes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/boris-johnson-knew-of-potential-conflict-of-interest-says-jennifer-arcuri?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    So there is a God.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Roger said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour are 100-1 against in Aberdeen South, a seat they held from 1997 to 2010.

    One of my two interests in Scotland. You got both right in 2017. I hear it'll be between SNP and Lib Dem.
    Can't remember which two they were - Banff and Buchan for the Tories and Edinburgh South for Labour maybe ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    nichomar said:

    Polruan said:

    nichomar said:

    I imagine the BXP would get more seats and more attention, on a thirty seat strategy than they would on a stand everywhere strategy.

    They have a few well known names the media just love - Claire Fox, Annunziata, Widdicome (Kate Hoey....???), and Nige himself.

    Widders/Hoey/Fox versus Cooper in Normanton,the media would be all over it.

    Media coverage will depend on how many seats they stand in if it’s 40 then they will be virtually ignored.
    Does it work like that? I would have said that if the Vote Leave machine is behind Boris they will be virtually ignored by the media if they stand in 600 seats; if it's behind BXP they will be all over BBC News even if they only stand in 20.
    Media coverage is based on last GE performance, other recent elections and the number of seats they are contesting. It’s not a matter of broadcasters choice but I believe, I might be wrong, determined by the electoral commission. I think the key point is he has 600+ candidates selected and already up and running who would be royally pissed off if they were pulled. Tice is the real bankroller of TBP not banks and it is small change to him.
    It does almost feel like a testing of the waters to see how all those candidates react to potentially being told to stand down, and then confirming they are not being stood down if it seems like they will kick up a fuss.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Drutt said:

    IanB2 said:

    BXP 0-9 seats still on offer at an amazing 1.17 on BFE
    If Farage wants to stand at all he should stand in the leave-iest LD-LAB marginal he can find. No idea where that is.
    Burnley probably
    Hartlepool! HOUSE!
  • Worth remembering

    2015 - UKIP stood in 624 constituencies and polled 12.6% = Tory majority

    2017 - UKIP stood in 378 constituencies and polled 1.8% = Hung Parliament

    2015 - Modern liberal Cameron as Tory leader = Tory majority
    2017 - Vile authoritarian May as leader = Hung Parliament
    2019 - Modern liberal Boris as Tory leader = ???
    Calling gay men 'tank topped bum boys' is not modern nor liberal.
    Being the leading Tory calling for gays to get equal marriage before Cameron or anyone else is both modern and liberal though.
This discussion has been closed.