politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The General Election – identifying the top bell weather seats
Thanks to AndyJS for once again creating a very interesting and useful spreadsheet. He mentioned this on the previous the previous thread and I thought it deserved to be highlighted even more.
I looked at calculating Cook PV scores for various seats a while back and Bedford has consistently been 4-6 points more Labour than the nation. So Con need to be 7 points ahead of Lab nationally to guarantee a win there.
So what happens if Labour get their gerrymandering amendments through? The government (and Lib Dems) are saying it is impossible to make the required changes in time for December dates.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
Boris will be offering tax cuts and spending for hospitals and the police and schools and above all to get Brexit done.
Boris will be Santa to May's Cruella Da Vil
Plus Boris will be Santa to Corbyn's Grinch.
Boris is the embodiment of can-do, up-beat Britain-is-Great optimism. Corbyn? Not so much....
Corbyn sells a vision that its terrible now but he can it great again. Not in those words, but it's the same message.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I can understand that Tory strategy. I think Bradshaw was on a news channel saying he would be fighting an election yesterday. I cannot remember which channel as i watched at least 3 yesterday evening!
Thanks. He would be a big loss for Labour in the SW if he doesn't stand. Their Plymouth seats looks a tricky hold.
When the May landslide looked plausible I think there were only 1-2 seats in all the SW that looked winnable for labour (outside Bristol at least). I seem to recall people saying he had to be persuaded to stay on last time.
So what happens if Labour get their gerrymandering amendments through? The government (and Lib Dems) are saying it is impossible to make the required changes in time for December dates.
What are the amendments ?
The only one I can see getting through is a change of date to 9th.
So what happens if Labour get their gerrymandering amendments through? The government (and Lib Dems) are saying it is impossible to make the required changes in time for December dates.
What are the amendments ?
The only one I can see getting through is a change of date to 9th.
According to the BBC, they are talking about votes for 16/17 year old and EU citizens.
Seats that swing close to the national average are *nothing* seats, where neither the MP nor the aspiring alternatives have any local profile or local achievements to their name, where there are no local issues that override the national political environment, and where the campaigns of the parties make no differential impact. I am unconvinced such seats are much of a guide to the coming contest, not least because the emerging leave/remain division of electors adds an entirely new dimension to our political geography.
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
2nd para - it's effectively a wrecking amendment at this point.
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Have they been ruled in order yet?
Who decides that - Bercow or one of his deputies ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Have they been ruled in order yet?
Who decides that - Bercow or one of his deputies ?
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Have they been ruled in order yet?
Who decides that - Bercow or one of his deputies ?
Hoyle is chairing. Not sure how decisions work in practice - whether speaker advises in conjunction with clerks, or whether deputy speaker has sole discretion in those cases.
Frenchman Jerome Garces to referee England's Rugby World Cup final against South Africa despite his controversial role in Wales' semi-final exit... with Nigel Owens out injured
Yes, it would be hilarious. I fear though that Barry Sheerman is getting carried away, and we'll be denied this particular treat.
Surely once the leadership has made the decision to go into a General Election any MP who votes against that and to keep the Tories in office is at serious risk of losing the whip and not being a candidate at the election?
I wonder if this what Italians feel like about their political class?
The last time they swept away their political class they landed with years of Berlusconi. And thereafter various coalitions of nutty extremists. Hardly encouraging.
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
Are the LDs not very much in favour (in principle) of 16-year-olds voting?
Though everything is subordinate to the overriding principle of electing more Lib Dem MPs.
Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925: Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours. (1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour. (2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour (3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1
Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.
In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.
But...
The smart move would be for Labour to reverse weaponise the NHS against Brexit. The inverse of the £350m bus.
That secret NHS drugs negotiation with the US Government that Channel 4 dispatches has started to unearth (if it is as advertised) looks potentially very damaging.
Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925: Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours. (1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour. (2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour (3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1
Sounds like you can’t give cash for honours. Doesn’t say anything about backroom deals.
Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.
In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.
But...
The smart move would be for Labour to reverse weaponise the NHS against Brexit. The inverse of the £350m bus.
That secret NHS drugs negotiation with the US Government that Channel 4 dispatches has started to unearth (if it is as advertised) looks potentially very damaging.
Channel 4 will throw everything they can at the Tories but I'm not sure most of the electorate will be listening.
F*cking hell. Labour. Their leader, who wants to PM, has just been on TV not an hour ago saying he is rearing to go and this will be a manifesto for radical change etc etc.
Boris says he has pulled WAB and unlikely to be time after today for NI budget bill and WAB. However could Boris pull some stunt like bringing a meaningful vote before parliament rises?
Oh bless him, he does look cheerful. It’s win win for him one feels. If he wins, he gets a short but interesting go at being PM. If he loses he is FREE.
If he loses badly he will resign the Labour leadership, but there could be a hung parliament in which the distribution of seats makes it hard for either him or the Tory leader to form a government - a GE result that leaves things the way an FTPA VONC might leave them but without the 14-day endstop. Just saying...for those who like uncertainty! An election in December followed by another one in January! LOL
Nobody has told Momentum that Labour are now trying to back out of it as fast as they can.
Reverse ferret.
LOL, what a surprise that you're overreacting again.
Defeating the programme motion would only mean the government comes back tomorrow with a different one, which MPs could amend more easily (to enfranchise more people / to gerrymander the electorate, depending on your viewpoint). The election is happening regardless of the route there.
F*cking hell. Labour. Their leader, who wants to PM, has just been on TV not an hour ago saying he is rearing to go and this will be a manifesto for radical change etc etc.
That's the correct thing to do if the goal is to amend the motion to the point where the *government* pulls it, then play the KFC card back at them.
F*cking hell. Labour. Their leader, who wants to PM, has just been on TV not an hour ago saying he is rearing to go and this will be a manifesto for radical change etc etc.
Pretty standard politics (including almost every aspect of Johnson’s behaviour over the last 3 months) isn’t it? Say how much you want to do x, find a way of avoiding x happening, find someone to blame for stopping you from doing x which would have been popular and which you so desperately wanted to do.... and repeat.
The fact that d**ks like Fabricant represent us in parliament is such an indictment of our current voting system.
You'd think so, but then you have a great voting system like STV used in Ireland and the voters only go and use it to elect people like the Healy-Rae dynasty and the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail duopoly hangs on.
Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests...
They are not, but they want a December election, and realise that it's not compatible with that.
Comments
Funny, but I never had you marked down as a swinger but you can't always judge a book by the cover.
Atb
PtP (possibly first again.....)
Do I win the race to be first pedant, and point out that a bellwether is a sheep not a climatic condition?
Bedford it is. Shall we have a PB competition on the result in Bedford?
The only one I can see getting through is a change of date to 9th.
If either passes, the government are saying it is impossible to organize by 12th December. Adding EU citizens is another 3 million voters.
He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189146672640811008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpsh9APpxls
Let's do this!
Frenchman Jerome Garces to referee England's Rugby World Cup final against South Africa despite his controversial role in Wales' semi-final exit... with Nigel Owens out injured
The Macron of rugby refs.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865
The last time they swept away their political class they landed with years of Berlusconi. And thereafter various coalitions of nutty extremists. Hardly encouraging.
Though everything is subordinate to the overriding principle of electing more Lib Dem MPs.
In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.
But...
Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours.
(1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.
(2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour
(3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224
That secret NHS drugs negotiation with the US Government that Channel 4 dispatches has started to unearth (if it is as advertised) looks potentially very damaging.
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1189167720899764224
Quite like the hashtag
#DitchJohnson
If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1189174100884897793
Reverse ferret.
Panic has set in.
Defeating the programme motion would only mean the government comes back tomorrow with a different one, which MPs could amend more easily (to enfranchise more people / to gerrymander the electorate, depending on your viewpoint). The election is happening regardless of the route there.
Please don't go
We love you so
And we want you to know
...
Please don't go (Bercow)
Hilarious if after trying 4 or 5 times to get a GE Boris lost though.