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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The General Election – identifying the top bell weather seats

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Hello from Spain. Was keeping up with things on Twitter from poolside. Kids now back in so BBC Parliament on the laptop.

    Have tried to explain to my 11yr old son what's going on. He finds it very funny but very baffling. Especially when you try and explain why the MPs who wouldn't vote for an election yesterday to be held on the 12th may vote today for an election to be held on the 12th or 11th...

    He may yet get the vote by 6pm if he hangs on.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

    If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.

    That figure simply has to be wrong doesn't it? Quite apart from its inherent unbelievability, where did Ms Swindon get it from?
    Probably includes those who turn 18 who would be added to the register in any case. There are moire than 750,000 18 year olds in the UK.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/articles/being18in2018/2018-09-13
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Last news bulletin I heard was 11am, and the election was on.

    Am I now to understand that it is off?

    We're not sure. Could just be MPs wanting more say over the process... What could possibly go wrong with that? ;)
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    Didn’t the civil service yesterday say it’d take six months to get everything in order? But hey, why do things properly when you are seeking to achieve the biggest gerrymander in modern history. :D
    Point me to where the "civil service" officially said that please (as opposed to some ludicrous press report based on unnamed sources).

    Votes at 16 is a long-standing policy of several parties - just because it doesn't advantage the Tories doesn't make it a gerrymander.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
    I'm not sure.
    The business motion would have been defeated if the Creasy amendment had not been passed. I think this is about MPs wanting some control over the process; let's see what, if anything, they do with it.
    Perfectly conceivable they just want some insurance against Boris pulling a fast one again.
    The original government motion was pretty outrageous, wasn't it? A government bill on which amendments are not allowed.
    I thought it a bill on which only government amendments were allowed ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    This is all pantomime now, until the house moves into committee
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Anorak said:

    IanB2 said:


    He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
    I'm having this image of Nige and Greta on a slow boat to New York.

    Who would throw the other overboard first?
    I reckon Greta's a psychopath. She'd turn the ship north at gunpoint and feed Nigel to the first hungry polar bear they came across.
    No. NO. No no no. You are wrong. Guns are bad. Although, it is not guns that kill people. It is people that kill people.

    Oh, and polar bears. Sorry, Nigel..... I would have tried to stop it, but you know, I had no gun to scare it off....

    *sound of gun plopping into freezing water.....*
    Please tell me that is the barebones plotline of your upcoming film.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Labour amendment to extend franchise to EU citizens and 16-year-olds is likely to be *rejected* this afternoon

    The move would require money resolution (there is a cost to extending franchise) so is likely to be deemed 'out of scope'

    So it looks like Dec election very much on
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Last news bulletin I heard was 11am, and the election was on.

    Am I now to understand that it is off?

    Parliament having trouble making a decision. What’s new?
  • Hello from Spain. Was keeping up with things on Twitter from poolside. Kids now back in so BBC Parliament on the laptop.

    Have tried to explain to my 11yr old son what's going on. He finds it very funny but very baffling. Especially when you try and explain why the MPs who wouldn't vote for an election yesterday to be held on the 12th may vote today for an election to be held on the 12th or 11th...

    I was in Barcelona last week - where are you?
    El Campello near Alicante - father-in-law lives nearby so we're here every year at various times
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
    I'm not sure.
    The business motion would have been defeated if the Creasy amendment had not been passed. I think this is about MPs wanting some control over the process; let's see what, if anything, they do with it.
    Perfectly conceivable they just want some insurance against Boris pulling a fast one again.
    The original government motion was pretty outrageous, wasn't it? A government bill on which amendments are not allowed.
    I thought it a bill on which only government amendments were allowed ?
    Yes, I was simplifying slightly. I can't see why the government would want to amend its own bill, but, yes, you are right. My point still stands, though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If anyone's interested I've also done swing bellwether spreadsheets for 1997 to 2005 and 1983 to 1992.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
  • Jeremy Corbyn is going for this

    Labour divisions on full display
  • RobD said:

    Last news bulletin I heard was 11am, and the election was on.

    Am I now to understand that it is off?

    Parliament having trouble making a decision. What’s new?
    LOL.

    Jez appears to be up for it, though. Bring it on, as Wendy Alexander once said.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited October 2019

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    Didn’t the civil service yesterday say it’d take six months to get everything in order? But hey, why do things properly when you are seeking to achieve the biggest gerrymander in modern history. :D
    Point me to where the "civil service" officially said that please (as opposed to some ludicrous press report based on unnamed sources).

    Votes at 16 is a long-standing policy of several parties - just because it doesn't advantage the Tories doesn't make it a gerrymander.
    If top journalists can quote sources, so can I. As for your second point, perhaps if they win an election on a manifesto for this change they can go ahead with it?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    This means Halesowen is the tipping point seat at number 326?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
    I'm not sure.
    The business motion would have been defeated if the Creasy amendment had not been passed. I think this is about MPs wanting some control over the process; let's see what, if anything, they do with it.
    Perfectly conceivable they just want some insurance against Boris pulling a fast one again.
    The original government motion was pretty outrageous, wasn't it? A government bill on which amendments are not allowed.
    I thought it a bill on which only government amendments were allowed ?
    Not any more
  • "Labour want an election as no deal is off the table" says Corbyn.

    "I don't want an election as no deal is still on the table" says a random Labour backbencher

    *Giggles*
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Lol @ Corbyn claiming ignorance of the coming amendments
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
    Thanks. Never noticed until this week.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    marke09 said:

    Labour amendment to extend franchise to EU citizens and 16-year-olds is likely to be *rejected* this afternoon

    The move would require money resolution (there is a cost to extending franchise) so is likely to be deemed 'out of scope'

    So it looks like Dec election very much on

    When do we get the Ant election?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Ms Swinson is off at the hairdressers. @Richard_Nabavi insisted yesterday, that she should get a hairstyle he approves of.

    Now I understand, it was a cunning ruse to derail Parliament by making her miss crucial votes...

    :D:D
    I do wish some on here would grow up.
    Some people on here need to lighten up.

    The whole political situation has reached the stage of farcical comedy and it was you who brought up the subject of her washing her hair.

    Pot. Kettle.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    Didn’t the civil service yesterday say it’d take six months to get everything in order? But hey, why do things properly when you are seeking to achieve the biggest gerrymander in modern history. :D
    Point me to where the "civil service" officially said that please (as opposed to some ludicrous press report based on unnamed sources).

    Votes at 16 is a long-standing policy of several parties - just because it doesn't advantage the Tories doesn't make it a gerrymander.
    If its a policy why don't they put it in their manifesto and if they win they can implement that policy.
  • Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    I'm more worried about his accent :lol:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunuone said:

    This means Halesowen is the tipping point seat at number 326?

    Not really because the list is just which seats have most closely matched the national swing over the last 3 elections. The half-way point doesn't mean anything in this case.
  • Surely Labour can’t substantively split on this vote? That would be idiotic. If it’s a dead cert thanks to the other parties then backbenchers have to vote with the leadership don’t they? Why open an attack line?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    Didn’t the civil service yesterday say it’d take six months to get everything in order? But hey, why do things properly when you are seeking to achieve the biggest gerrymander in modern history. :D
    Point me to where the "civil service" officially said that please (as opposed to some ludicrous press report based on unnamed sources).

    Votes at 16 is a long-standing policy of several parties - just because it doesn't advantage the Tories doesn't make it a gerrymander.
    If too journalists can quote sources, so can I. As for your second point, perhaps if they win an election on a manifesto for this change they can go ahead with it?
    If there's a Commons majority for a something (and actually I doubt there is on this) then enough MPs have been elected who take the position to do it. That's the same on any issue.

    Your point is silly in any event - the logical conclusion is only a majority government can make ANY proposal in Commons, and then only if it was in the manifesto. Yet lots of measures that pass Commons weren't in any manifesto.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    IanB2 said:

    Lol @ Corbyn claiming ignorance of the coming amendments

    Lol lol now minutes later he’s taking about the coming amendments, including for EU citizens and for 16/17 year olds
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    IanB2 said:

    This is all pantomime now, until the house moves into committee

    What time is that happening?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited October 2019

    Hello from Spain. Was keeping up with things on Twitter from poolside. Kids now back in so BBC Parliament on the laptop.

    Have tried to explain to my 11yr old son what's going on. He finds it very funny but very baffling. Especially when you try and explain why the MPs who wouldn't vote for an election yesterday to be held on the 12th may vote today for an election to be held on the 12th or 11th...

    I was in Barcelona last week - where are you?
    El Campello near Alicante - father-in-law lives nearby so we're here every year at various times
    102km north of me beautiful day today
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
    Why stop at citizens of Bulgaria? Why not citizens of Russia or China?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    The PM wants an election on terms that are different to those that happen by default.

    Why on earth should the opposition accept his choice of election terms rather than parliaments? There is nothing wrong with the Creasy amendment, if it wrecks the election that would solely be because the PM refuses to negotiate and compromise. Without the votes in our sovereign body, he needs to negotiate and compromise, that is how the system works, we are not yet a dictatorship.

    The 'default' terms are an election in May 2022.
    So, yes, I suppose the PM does want terms different from default.

    But we're proposing government paralysis for the next two and a half years? No budgets? Limping from EU extension to EU extension laid down by Hilary Benn once a quarter?

    Must admit, the lack of income tax does appeal, but I don't think it'll help with the smooth running of the state.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Corbyn closes by hoping that the amendments that he knows nothing about are carried.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Ms Swinson is off at the hairdressers. @Richard_Nabavi insisted yesterday, that she should get a hairstyle he approves of.

    Now I understand, it was a cunning ruse to derail Parliament by making her miss crucial votes...

    :D:D
    I do wish some on here would grow up.
    Some people on here need to lighten up.

    The whole political situation has reached the stage of farcical comedy and it was you who brought up the subject of her washing her hair.

    Pot. Kettle.
    When have I ever mentioned her washing her hair?

    Edit - Sorry that was me just now! Hadn’t even noticed it as it’s just everyday language.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Little busy just now but looking forward to perusing this article.
  • IanB2 said:

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
    As a black plastic spectacle wearer of expensive thin high index lenses I've mentally pleaded with him to take them back to Specsavers for ages. Can't be doing his eyesight any good.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    We should not be seeking to make such a major constitutional change at this point in time.

    There are those who want a debate - which is fine - I believe they are wrong. 18 is a perfectly legitimate age to become an adult. And voting is a right that should only come with the advent of adulthood.

    Other than the special case of Irish citizens, why should the UK offer GE voting rights to EU nationals - when that is a right that is not afforded in any other EU nation?

    A national debate on such issues - fine. Trying to rush it through now is just wrong. The timing does not allow for a seemly extension of the franchise to new groups even it were desirable.

    Serious commentators do not believe that there is adequate time for this sort of extension to take place in a fair way.
    Correct, though, question, can't some Commonwealth nationals vote in a GE (and Malta and Cyprus are both Commonwealth, as well as EU)?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
    Why stop at citizens of Bulgaria? Why not citizens of Russia or China?
    and livestock and the deceased.
  • Surely Labour can’t substantively split on this vote? That would be idiotic. If it’s a dead cert thanks to the other parties then backbenchers have to vote with the leadership don’t they? Why open an attack line?

    Because the backbenches think the leader is a wazzock but are so frit that they won't do anything about it
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    I'm more worried about his accent :lol:
    Why his accent? Sounds the same to me! What have i missed?

    I think Bill Cash is an arsehole. Shame he does not retire. He would not be missed...

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Ms Swinson is off at the hairdressers. @Richard_Nabavi insisted yesterday, that she should get a hairstyle he approves of.

    Now I understand, it was a cunning ruse to derail Parliament by making her miss crucial votes...

    :D:D
    I do wish some on here would grow up.
    Some people on here need to lighten up.

    The whole political situation has reached the stage of farcical comedy and it was you who brought up the subject of her washing her hair.

    Pot. Kettle.
    When have I ever mentioned her washing her hair?

    Edit - Sorry that was me just now! Hadn’t even noticed it as it’s just everyday language.
    Well, I guess you get a point for amending that comment, and not just scrubbing it from existence. :smiley:
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
    Why stop at citizens of Bulgaria? Why not citizens of Russia or China?
    Let's face it, they should never have let coloureds vote.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Blackford stands up to speak and about 50 MPs get up and leave the chamber.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn closes by hoping that the amendments that he knows nothing about are carried.

    Corbyn is a duplicitous bastard, no different to many MP's but he has it off to a fine art.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    IanB2 said:

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
    As a black plastic spectacle wearer of expensive thin high index lenses I've mentally pleaded with him to take them back to Specsavers for ages. Can't be doing his eyesight any good.
    Oh yeah. A bit 'Mad Eye Moody', now you mention it.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Looking at the votes on Creasy amendment

    Ex Tories voting for it were Bebb, Clarke, Greening, Grieve, P Hammond, Sandbach

    Boles, Burt, Gauke, Letwin, Rudd and Rory Stewart abstained


  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Chris said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
    Why stop at citizens of Bulgaria? Why not citizens of Russia or China?
    Let's face it, they should never have let coloureds vote.
    Or play football, according to Bulgarian public opinion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    So yesterday Labour voted against a motion to dissolve Parliament and have an election on 12th December but today they are voting for a bill to, err, dissolve Parliament and have a 12th December election.

    Am I missing something?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    Didn’t the civil service yesterday say it’d take six months to get everything in order? But hey, why do things properly when you are seeking to achieve the biggest gerrymander in modern history. :D
    Point me to where the "civil service" officially said that please (as opposed to some ludicrous press report based on unnamed sources).

    Votes at 16 is a long-standing policy of several parties - just because it doesn't advantage the Tories doesn't make it a gerrymander.
    If too journalists can quote sources, so can I. As for your second point, perhaps if they win an election on a manifesto for this change they can go ahead with it?
    I believe it was in the both the last Labour and Lib Dem manifestos (likewise the SNP ?), so they're quite entitled to argue for it - though I think only Labour are shaping to die in a ditch over it right now.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Interesting watching the Betfair Dec 19 GE market as those speeches were being made.

    It took a quite a length of time for the implications of Corbyn backing amendments on voting rights to filter through to the price.

    Dec 19 went from 1.15 out to 1.4 but verrrry slowly.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    IanB2 said:

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
    As a black plastic spectacle wearer of expensive thin high index lenses I've mentally pleaded with him to take them back to Specsavers for ages. Can't be doing his eyesight any good.
    Aren't glasses supposed to be like that? My current glasses have both lenses the same, as an average of the prescription for both eyes, but the previous ones had different lenses. Has there been a change of mind by opticians?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    IanB2 said:

    Corbyn closes by hoping that the amendments that he knows nothing about are carried.

    Corbyn is a duplicitous bastard, no different to many MP's but he has it off to a fine art.
    I think the PM is worse. Some politicians are duplicitous and seem to have a hide so thick, they have no embarrasement. When you hear about the antics of some MPs, one wonders how they dare to turn up in the chamber. Some of them have no shame...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Corbo going for Vas and Veuc - good for him. I raised this idea last night. Great idea!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Chris said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
    Why stop at citizens of Bulgaria? Why not citizens of Russia or China?
    Let's face it, they should never have let coloureds vote.
    I can imagine yourself driving a minibus full of toddlers to a polling station in order to help the remain cause. Any gerrymandering will do.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Corbo going for Vas and Veuc - good for him. I raised this idea last night. Great idea!

    Brilliant, sounds like he's frit and trying to kill the election through amendments. Hope the SNP and Tories can get it over the line.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    The Tories should accept the amendments. Let’s do it! Vas and Veuc, all-in, an election for every citizen!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Brom said:

    Corbo going for Vas and Veuc - good for him. I raised this idea last night. Great idea!

    Brilliant, sounds like he's frit and trying to kill the election through amendments. Hope the SNP and Tories can get it over the line.
    SNP MPs have already signed the "votes at 16" amendment, although no LibDems on there.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    SNP supporting December 12th
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    DavidL said:

    So yesterday Labour voted against a motion to dissolve Parliament and have an election on 12th December but today they are voting for a bill to, err, dissolve Parliament and have a 12th December election.

    Am I missing something?

    Wait for the amendments
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    DavidL said:

    So yesterday Labour voted against a motion to dissolve Parliament and have an election on 12th December but today they are voting for a bill to, err, dissolve Parliament and have a 12th December election.

    Am I missing something?

    Well, the 2/3 motion under FTPA doesn't specify a date for one thing. As the precise date is apparently a big bone of contention between the Tory party and their collaborators, that might be a relevant point.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    The Tories should accept the amendments. Let’s do it! Vas and Veuc, all-in, an election for every citizen!

    Lol, crazy talk. Literally no one wants that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    Jeremy has eye problems, Boris has lie problems.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Anorak said:

    IanB2 said:


    He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
    I'm having this image of Nige and Greta on a slow boat to New York.

    Who would throw the other overboard first?
    I reckon Greta's a psychopath. She'd turn the ship north at gunpoint and feed Nigel to the first hungry polar bear they came across.
    I like her more all the time.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Looks like the GE is disappearing over the horizon.

    The opposition parties will need to decide how to proceed with Brexit; the ball is completely in their court for either revoke, R2 or ND.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Brom said:

    Chris said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    No chance, they know the public is against letting kids vote and they know there would be on election if they insist upon it.
    Why stop at citizens of Bulgaria? Why not citizens of Russia or China?
    Let's face it, they should never have let coloureds vote.
    I can imagine yourself driving a minibus full of toddlers to a polling station in order to help the remain cause. Any gerrymandering will do.
    I can imagine yourself driving a minibus mowing down Remain voters outside a polling station, and reversing over them - several times - as they scream in helpless agony.

    But perhaps we shouldn't let our imaginations run away with us.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SunnyJim said:

    Looks like the GE is disappearing over the horizon.

    The opposition parties will need to decide how to proceed with Brexit; the ball is completely in their court for either revoke, R2 or ND.

    You don't really think the government would cancel the election just because 16 and 17-year-olds get to vote, do you?
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    VEUC would lose the Tories the election. Will VAS and VEUC really go through, wham, committee stage treated as a formality? What a coup!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    SunnyJim said:

    Interesting watching the Betfair Dec 19 GE market as those speeches were being made.

    It took a quite a length of time for the implications of Corbyn backing amendments on voting rights to filter through to the price.

    Dec 19 went from 1.15 out to 1.4 but verrrry slowly.

    It's a bettors paradise if you can surf it.

    Which I'm not even trying to.
  • Are the DUP keen on votes for children? I'd have thought not.
  • DavidL said:

    So yesterday Labour voted against a motion to dissolve Parliament and have an election on 12th December but today they are voting for a bill to, err, dissolve Parliament and have a 12th December election.

    Am I missing something?

    Explaining this to my 11 year old son earlier had him roaring with laughter. "That's so stupid"
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
  • The PM wants an election on terms that are different to those that happen by default.

    Why on earth should the opposition accept his choice of election terms rather than parliaments? There is nothing wrong with the Creasy amendment, if it wrecks the election that would solely be because the PM refuses to negotiate and compromise. Without the votes in our sovereign body, he needs to negotiate and compromise, that is how the system works, we are not yet a dictatorship.

    The 'default' terms are an election in May 2022.
    So, yes, I suppose the PM does want terms different from default.

    But we're proposing government paralysis for the next two and a half years? No budgets? Limping from EU extension to EU extension laid down by Hilary Benn once a quarter?

    Must admit, the lack of income tax does appeal, but I don't think it'll help with the smooth running of the state.
    Just proposing the radical suggestion that the PM stops believing (despite all the evidence of the last year to the contrary) that the PM gets to decide everything and instead accepts the reality of parliamentary arithmetic and tries to do things via negotiation and compromise, whether that is calling an election, delivering Brexit or managing our taxation.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Brom said:

    The Tories should accept the amendments. Let’s do it! Vas and Veuc, all-in, an election for every citizen!

    Lol, crazy talk. Literally no one wants that.
    Incorrect. I do for one. I reckon there are thousands more with me.

    I think you meant “I don’t want that”.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    SunnyJim said:

    Looks like the GE is disappearing over the horizon.

    The opposition parties will need to decide how to proceed with Brexit; the ball is completely in their court for either revoke, R2 or ND.

    Perhaps the first priority is scrutinising the government's legislation for a general election properly. After all, this must be the government's priority, as it's chosen to bring this forward rather than concluding the WAIB.

    However, there are some thorny issues here, and it may take some time. But that's what parliament's here for, after all.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Is there pollling on support in the country for votes for EU citizens and 16/17 year olds?

    What to the current (soon to be diluted) electorate think?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    The Tories frit? Threatening to pull an election bill after all that bluster. FFS.
  • Corbo going for Vas and Veuc - good for him. I raised this idea last night. Great idea!

    Changing the system for short term gain is indeed typical of Corbyn.

    But the fact remains that both votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens are a moral and consitutional abomination.
  • Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    I'm more worried about his accent :lol:
    Why his accent? Sounds the same to me! What have i missed?

    I think Bill Cash is an arsehole. Shame he does not retire. He would not be missed...

    He'll just end up in the Lords, still talking endlessly about nowt.
  • IanB2 said:

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
    As a black plastic spectacle wearer of expensive thin high index lenses I've mentally pleaded with him to take them back to Specsavers for ages. Can't be doing his eyesight any good.
    Aren't glasses supposed to be like that? My current glasses have both lenses the same, as an average of the prescription for both eyes, but the previous ones had different lenses. Has there been a change of mind by opticians?
    Different strength lenses for differing prescriptions in each eye? Sure - I have that. Lenses though should be lined up so that your eye points through the focus centre of the lens. Corbyn's bent frame means one eye isn't able to focus properly as not looking through the correct part of the lens

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    DavidL said:

    So yesterday Labour voted against a motion to dissolve Parliament and have an election on 12th December but today they are voting for a bill to, err, dissolve Parliament and have a 12th December election.

    Am I missing something?

    Explaining this to my 11 year old son earlier had him roaring with laughter. "That's so stupid"
    So he does understand it. :smile:
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    SunnyJim said:

    Looks like the GE is disappearing over the horizon.

    The opposition parties will need to decide how to proceed with Brexit; the ball is completely in their court for either revoke, R2 or ND.

    I don't think they have the votes to get the amendments through, even if they are called. GE still very much on.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    PaulM said:

    Looking at the votes on Creasy amendment

    Ex Tories voting for it were Bebb, Clarke, Greening, Grieve, P Hammond, Sandbach

    Boles, Burt, Gauke, Letwin, Rudd and Rory Stewart abstained


    Does anyone really believe the likes of Clarke, Hammond etc in their claims that the WAB could ever have passed if reliant on their votes?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    edited October 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Just out of interest has anyone else noticed the lense in the glasses of JC's right hand eye or if you are watching on tv the lense on the left. It is radically different to the other lense. Hope he is ok!

    It’s been that way for some time
    As a black plastic spectacle wearer of expensive thin high index lenses I've mentally pleaded with him to take them back to Specsavers for ages. Can't be doing his eyesight any good.
    Aren't glasses supposed to be like that? My current glasses have both lenses the same, as an average of the prescription for both eyes, but the previous ones had different lenses. Has there been a change of mind by opticians?
    https://twitter.com/ronwindward/status/1188902378898112517?s=19

    Jezza wears glasses for reading, not usually for distance. If you look at his right optic, the horizontal lines are visible. This is a temporary prism used to treat double vision. It is possible that this has now been replaced by a prescribed prism, hence the asymmetry in his lenses.

    A prism alters the position of the image, hence the asymmetry of the eyes in the picture. The frame looks straight to me.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kinabalu said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Interesting watching the Betfair Dec 19 GE market as those speeches were being made.

    It took a quite a length of time for the implications of Corbyn backing amendments on voting rights to filter through to the price.

    Dec 19 went from 1.15 out to 1.4 but verrrry slowly.

    It's a bettors paradise if you can surf it.

    Which I'm not even trying to.
    I got out last night. Felt pretty foolish this morning. Now, not so much.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    edited October 2019

    Are the DUP keen on votes for children? I'd have thought not.

    They're not even keen on votes for catholics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Can the PB Tories explain their principled objection to Vas and Veuc?
  • PaulM said:

    Looking at the votes on Creasy amendment

    Ex Tories voting for it were Bebb, Clarke, Greening, Grieve, P Hammond, Sandbach

    Boles, Burt, Gauke, Letwin, Rudd and Rory Stewart abstained


    Does anyone really believe the likes of Clarke, Hammond etc in their claims that the WAB could ever have passed if reliant on their votes?
    No.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited October 2019
    Vicky Ford over enjoyed today’s lunch given the way she is slurring her words and forgetting where she is in her speech?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Danny565 said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Looks like the GE is disappearing over the horizon.

    The opposition parties will need to decide how to proceed with Brexit; the ball is completely in their court for either revoke, R2 or ND.

    You don't really think the government would cancel the election just because 16 and 17-year-olds get to vote, do you?
    It would appear that way.

    Frit. Frit. Frit.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    The Tories should accept the amendments. Let’s do it! Vas and Veuc, all-in, an election for every citizen!

    Lol, crazy talk. Literally no one wants that.
    Incorrect. I do for one. I reckon there are thousands more with me.

    I think you meant “I don’t want that”.
    Thousands says it all! So you think a Romanian living in the UK for a few years should get to vote both in both a UK General election and a Romanian election? Essentially any foreigner living in the UK wouldn't need to take up citizenship and could have a say in how 2 countries were run.

    Those supporting it clearly have ulterior motives and amazing how they want it rushed through when they wanted to see Brexit drawn out forever.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Danny565 said:

    Brom said:

    Corbo going for Vas and Veuc - good for him. I raised this idea last night. Great idea!

    Brilliant, sounds like he's frit and trying to kill the election through amendments. Hope the SNP and Tories can get it over the line.
    SNP MPs have already signed the "votes at 16" amendment, although no LibDems on there.
    Vas and Veuc are both long-standing LIB and SNP policies as I understand it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    The idea that EU citizens should be given the right to vote in our national election for the first time when Parliament has already approved in principle a deal to allow us to leave the EU is just so off the wall that it must surely be getting put forward as a bet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Can the PB Tories explain their principled objection to Vas and Veuc?

    Can anybody make a case for that isn't based on them sniggering about the naked political gerrymandering?
This discussion has been closed.