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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The General Election – identifying the top bell weather seats

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    So Corbyn will be able to say he wanted a GE, but due to a technicality with a programme motion it couldn't happen.

    I was there, but didn't lay any wreath.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited October 2019

    Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.

    In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.

    But...
    £350m a week for the NHS will help towards the £500m a week it will need to send to US drug companies

    If anything like that gets traction I don’t think anyone can guess how the election will end up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?

    Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests...
    They are not, but they want a December election, and realise that it's not compatible with that.
    Why? They are already on the register.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wee Smog about to move the Business Motion paving the way for the early GE. Amendment is selected.

    Which amendment ?
    Are we talking about an amendment to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, which doesn't in fact name a date?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wee Smog about to move the Business Motion paving the way for the early GE. Amendment is selected.

    Which amendment ?
    The Creasy amendment (allowing further amendments)
    Though it would need the DUP to have any hope of getting carried.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con + DUP + LD defeats EU citizens I think ?

    Why would the LDs be against EU citizens getting the vote? I think they are against kids voting, but surely they think having EU citizens getting the opportunity to nullify the referendum is in their interests...
    They are not, but they want a December election, and realise that it's not compatible with that.
    Why? They are already on the register.
    To put it more clearly, getting a bill through the HoC to hold the December election very probably isn't going to happen if they hold out for that condition.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Labour doesn’t sound that keen on the JRM business motion
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    The fact that d**ks like Fabricant represent us in parliament is such an indictment of our current voting system.

    Is it? I'm a PR backer but pretty sure we would still get dicks.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

    If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.

    That figure simply has to be wrong doesn't it? Quite apart from its inherent unbelievability, where did Ms Swindon get it from?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

    Why would either of them want to divulge their sources of income by becoming Peers or are they too well hidden?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Dec election drifting in the betting now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I think theres little doubt about that. If there were, he would have waited before trying what he has.
  • Oh god...

    Frenchman Jerome Garces to referee England's Rugby World Cup final against South Africa despite his controversial role in Wales' semi-final exit... with Nigel Owens out injured

    The Macron of rugby refs.

    Better him than a Welshman.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    SNP will support the Creasy amendment.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Heidi Allen not standing.
  • Spreadsheets by AndyJS will always be remembered with great fondness on PB.

    Andy, if you've got any other spreadsheets let me know, they will get published.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Creasy moves the amendment
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Spreadsheets by AndyJS will always be remembered with great fondness on PB.

    Andy, if you've got any other spreadsheets let me know, they will get published.

    He should charge a commission :D
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Dec election drifting in the betting now.

    Crazy. The election is going to happen regardless, it's just a question of who gets on the electoral register for it.

    Votes at 16 / for EU citizens is not going to be a "red line" for the Tories even if those amendments were to pass; they're too far down the election rabbit-hole now to back out.

    Not that the amendments are going to pass anyway.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Entirely fitting for a long term conch-ientious objector.
  • Pidcock, Lavery, RLB and Gardiner doing media - are they trying to lose?!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited October 2019

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

    If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.

    That figure simply has to be wrong doesn't it? Quite apart from its inherent unbelievability, where did Ms Swindon get it from?
    I've seen it (or something similar enough that I thought it was the same) a few times on twitter from different people. Edit: There is a chance I have just seen that tweet twice several hours apart but I could have sworn I saw something similar from somebody else on twitter (though they could be unreliable)

    Should have clarified (I do sometimes) that I can't personally vouch for the figure.

    Young people move about a lot, so are more likely to need to register again and a decent portion vote for the first time when they are young and so presumably register for the first time. You do get more sign ups when an election looks likely but it does sound like a big figure.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    So all we have to do is watch you, Mike, and see which way you're swinging?

    Funny, but I never had you marked down as a swinger but you can't always judge a book by the cover.

    Atb

    PtP (possibly first again.....)

    All eyes on whoever the constituents of Bedford are swapping their votes with
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

    Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925:
    Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours.
    (1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.
    (2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour
    (3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty.

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1
    Sounds like you can’t give cash for honours. Doesn’t say anything about backroom deals.
    If you think it applies only to cash, obviously you need to read it again. Or maybe just read it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Division on the Creasy amendment
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Spreadsheets by AndyJS will always be remembered with great fondness on PB.

    Andy, if you've got any other spreadsheets let me know, they will get published.

    Won a lot of us plenty of money. Andy deserves a knighthood.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Entirely fitting for a long term conch-ientious objector.
    Are Labour really planning for an election or are they playing a shell game?
  • https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1189067242551463936

    If Johnson is to be stopped the under 40's will be absolutely key.

    That figure simply has to be wrong doesn't it? Quite apart from its inherent unbelievability, where did Ms Swindon get it from?
    Shirley some mistake - it must be 20 million people registering to VOTE JEZZA?!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Money still going on Eleanor Laing for next Speaker. Now 4/1.

    Anyone know why?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Brom said:

    Johnson has taken a huge gamble. Especially given the volatile nature of electorate.

    In theory, Corbyn should be shellacked.

    But...
    The smart move would be for Labour to reverse weaponise the NHS against Brexit. The inverse of the £350m bus.

    That secret NHS drugs negotiation with the US Government that Channel 4 dispatches has started to unearth (if it is as advertised) looks potentially very damaging.
    Channel 4 will throw everything they can at the Tories but I'm not sure most of the electorate will be listening.
    Dunno. Feels a bit Zimmerman telegram to me.

    It links NHS/American system and Brexit together in the worst possible way.

    My political clusterfuck antenna are going crazy over this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Nigelb said:
    So yes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    kle4 said:

    I think theres little doubt about that. If there were, he would have waited before trying what he has.

    Much confusion can be caused by a failure to recognize that this is the Boris Johnson Project with everything else, including Brexit, subservient to its single objective - the promotion of Brand Boris Johnson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Stocky said:

    Money still going on Eleanor Laing for next Speaker. Now 4/1.

    Anyone know why?

    If Tories win GE she probably gets more votes I'd assume . Hoyle wont be speaker in time as Bercow stays on, and in a big tory win might lose his seat
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    If Creasy goes through, the afternoon gets more interesting.

    Meanwhile there is a gathering mood to postpone the Speaker election until the next parliament
  • Pidcock, Lavery, RLB and Gardiner doing media - are they trying to lose?!
    The last line is the key one

    Insurgency

    They do not aim to win, they merely aim to stop the Tories winning.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Looks like the GE is off again. This parliament is a laughing stock.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    edited October 2019

    Pidcock, Lavery, RLB and Gardiner doing media - are they trying to lose?!
    The last line is the key one

    Insurgency

    They do not aim to win, they merely aim to stop the Tories winning.
    Pidcock, Lavery, RLB and Gardiner should guarantee not winning - no need to do anything else!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Entirely fitting for a long term conch-ientious objector.
    He is going to get a shell-acking...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kle4 says: " Hoyle wont be speaker in time as Bercow stays on, and in a big tory win might lose his seat"

    "as Bercow stays on"? Have I missed something?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Pidcock, Lavery, RLB and Gardiner doing media - are they trying to lose?!
    The last line is the key one

    Insurgency

    They do not aim to win, they merely aim to stop the Tories winning.
    I feel like that isn't what insurgency means...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    Negates Wee Smog’s attempt to close down this afternoons debate to amendments
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,899
    East Ham will never be a bell weather for anything - a bell something else, well, perhaps.

    I imagine Stephen Timms will be straining every sinew to defend his wafer-thin 39,883 majority.

    He's already scared off @HYUFD who apparently won't be door knocking so a small triumph for Labour in the opening skirmishes (or perhaps not).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    It would ensure that during the main debate on the bill MPs can propose amendments in the usual way. Under the government’s plan, only amendments from the government would be put to a vote. (courtesy Guardian live blog)
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    It's a wrecking one. If it passes, election off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A cloud on the horizon for the government:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1189181980572712962
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The government is hoping the noes win this vote?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Banterman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    It's a wrecking one. If it passes, election off.
    No, that’s too simplistic. It depends.
  • Pidcock, Lavery, RLB and Gardiner doing media - are they trying to lose?!
    The last line is the key one

    Insurgency

    They do not aim to win, they merely aim to stop the Tories winning.
    I feel like that isn't what insurgency means...
    Yeah, feel is probably the best word to use there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

    Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925:
    Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours.
    (1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.
    (2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour
    (3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty.

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1
    Sounds like you can’t give cash for honours. Doesn’t say anything about backroom deals.
    If you think it applies only to cash, obviously you need to read it again. Or maybe just read it.
    No need to be snide. Would you could call a backroom deal a “valuable consideration”?
  • Hello from Spain. Was keeping up with things on Twitter from poolside. Kids now back in so BBC Parliament on the laptop.

    Have tried to explain to my 11yr old son what's going on. He finds it very funny but very baffling. Especially when you try and explain why the MPs who wouldn't vote for an election yesterday to be held on the 12th may vote today for an election to be held on the 12th or 11th...
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019
    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Stocky said:

    kle4 says: " Hoyle wont be speaker in time as Bercow stays on, and in a big tory win might lose his seat"

    "as Bercow stays on"? Have I missed something?

    Possibility he delays standing down for a few days . Possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Banterman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    It's a wrecking one. If it passes, election off.
    Yet again Corbyn wimps out of an election.

    Only this time he went on national TV and said he was ready and would be campaigning for a radical plan all over the UK etc etc.

    These people are beyond words.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Hello from Spain. Was keeping up with things on Twitter from poolside. Kids now back in so BBC Parliament on the laptop.

    Have tried to explain to my 11yr old son what's going on. He finds it very funny but very baffling. Especially when you try and explain why the MPs who wouldn't vote for an election yesterday to be held on the 12th may vote today for an election to be held on the 12th or 11th...

    The date of the election at the end is immaterial but the amount of time remaining before dissolution to (potentially) do evil things is very material. Bottom line: no-one trusts Bozo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    IanB2 said:


    He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
    I'm having this image of Nige and Greta on a slow boat to New York.

    Who would throw the other overboard first?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Looks like Creasy is carried
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    312-295
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Amended motion carried, now to the substantive
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Looks like these are the Brexit Party's demands.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1189171951002148865

    Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925:
    Punishment of abuses in connection with the grant of honours.
    (1)If any person accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain from any person, for himself or for any other person, or for any purpose, any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.
    (2)If any person gives, or agrees or proposes to give, or offers to any person any gift, money or valuable consideration as an inducement or reward for procuring or assisting or endeavouring to procure the grant of a dignity or title of honour to any person, or otherwise in connection with such a grant, he shall be guilty of a misdemeanour
    (3)Any person guilty of a misdemeanour under this Act shall be liable on conviction on indictment to imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or to a fine not exceeding five hundred pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, or on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or to a fine not exceeding fifty pounds, or to both such imprisonment and such fine, and where the person convicted (whether on indictment or summarily) received any such gift, money, or consideration as aforesaid which is capable of forfeiture, he shall in addition to any other punishment be liable to forfeit the same to His Majesty.

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo5/15-16/72/section/1
    Sounds like you can’t give cash for honours. Doesn’t say anything about backroom deals.
    If you think it applies only to cash, obviously you need to read it again. Or maybe just read it.
    "There was no quid pro quo"...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Business motion uncontested, but amendments allowed as usual.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    So, GE off?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    PM to move second reading
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited October 2019

    So, GE off?

    Not necessarily, depends on what amendments if any are moved, selected and carried at committee stage

    List of amendments will be published before the house moves into committee stage
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Maybe they're symbolic amendments. Everyone knows 16 and 17 year olds can't be added in time for a December election, but supporters of the idea seem to want to talk about it anyway, maybe just to annoy the Tories.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Dec 2019 GE heading upwards on BF.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    For those who'd forgotten the details (or never knew - like me) the reason for the ding-dong over the exact date, it's laid out here.
    https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/28/election-showdown-future-of-brexit-comes-down-to-fight-over
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Lots of absences - pairing or absentees?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    Still strong odds on at 1.33 - drifting though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    If you have a profit on a Dec 2019/2019 election, I would lay some of it off now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    edited October 2019

    Banterman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    It's a wrecking one. If it passes, election off.
    Yet again Corbyn wimps out of an election.

    Only this time he went on national TV and said he was ready and would be campaigning for a radical plan all over the UK etc etc.

    These people are beyond words.
    Sky are reporting that Lindsay Hoyle will select the amendments and the December GE is still on the table

    It depends on how mps especially lib dems, snp vote in regard to the amendments and even Lindsay Hoyle may not allow votes for 16s at it is a wrecking amendment
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Lots of absences - pairing or absentees?

    How do you get the vote info so fast ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    IanB2 said:


    He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
    I'm having this image of Nige and Greta on a slow boat to New York.

    Who would throw the other overboard first?
    I reckon Greta's a psychopath. She'd turn the ship north at gunpoint and feed Nigel to the first hungry polar bear they came across.
  • Banterman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Whats Creasy amendment for again ?

    It's a wrecking one. If it passes, election off.
    Yet again Corbyn wimps out of an election.

    Only this time he went on national TV and said he was ready and would be campaigning for a radical plan all over the UK etc etc.

    These people are beyond words.
    The PM wants an election on terms that are different to those that happen by default.

    Why on earth should the opposition accept his choice of election terms rather than parliaments? There is nothing wrong with the Creasy amendment, if it wrecks the election that would solely be because the PM refuses to negotiate and compromise. Without the votes in our sovereign body, he needs to negotiate and compromise, that is how the system works, we are not yet a dictatorship.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
    I'm not sure.
    The business motion would have been defeated if the Creasy amendment had not been passed. I think this is about MPs wanting some control over the process; let's see what, if anything, they do with it.
    Perfectly conceivable they just want some insurance against Boris pulling a fast one again.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Ms Swinson is off at the hairdressers. @Richard_Nabavi insisted yesterday, that she should get a hairstyle he approves of.

    Now I understand, it was a cunning ruse to derail Parliament by making her miss crucial votes...

    :D:D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Pulpstar said:

    Lots of absences - pairing or absentees?

    How do you get the vote info so fast ?
    Got the parliament.uk live feed going in the background.
  • RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
    I'm not sure.
    The business motion would have been defeated if the Creasy amendment had not been passed. I think this is about MPs wanting some control over the process; let's see what, if anything, they do with it.
    Perfectly conceivable they just want some insurance against Boris pulling a fast one again.
    Bozo’s past potency feeds directly to his impotence today...
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    BJ is rubbish. Embarrasingly bad!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Anorak said:

    IanB2 said:


    He should have gone by sea. Slower, for sure, but I am sure he would have been able to afford a Cunard internet package.
    I'm having this image of Nige and Greta on a slow boat to New York.

    Who would throw the other overboard first?
    I reckon Greta's a psychopath. She'd turn the ship north at gunpoint and feed Nigel to the first hungry polar bear they came across.
    No. NO. No no no. You are wrong. Guns are bad. Although, it is not guns that kill people. It is people that kill people.

    Oh, and polar bears. Sorry, Nigel..... I would have tried to stop it, but you know, I had no gun to scare it off....

    *sound of gun plopping into freezing water.....*
  • Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    "So, GE off?"

    I suspect so - Labour are going to kill it via amendments.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189185582762582019

    Feels dead to me.
    I'm not sure.
    The business motion would have been defeated if the Creasy amendment had not been passed. I think this is about MPs wanting some control over the process; let's see what, if anything, they do with it.
    Perfectly conceivable they just want some insurance against Boris pulling a fast one again.
    The original government motion was pretty outrageous, wasn't it? A government bill on which amendments are not allowed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited October 2019

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    Didn’t the civil service yesterday say it’d take six months to get everything in order? But hey, why do things properly when you are seeking to achieve the biggest gerrymander in modern history. :D
  • The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Ms Swinson is off at the hairdressers. @Richard_Nabavi insisted yesterday, that she should get a hairstyle he approves of.

    Now I understand, it was a cunning ruse to derail Parliament by making her miss crucial votes...

    :D:D
    I do wish some on here would grow up.

    It was a perfectly sensible question, her absence having been noted on the floor of the House. She wants an election and has it in her gift to avoid the amendments that might kill it and play the grownup.
  • Hello from Spain. Was keeping up with things on Twitter from poolside. Kids now back in so BBC Parliament on the laptop.

    Have tried to explain to my 11yr old son what's going on. He finds it very funny but very baffling. Especially when you try and explain why the MPs who wouldn't vote for an election yesterday to be held on the 12th may vote today for an election to be held on the 12th or 11th...

    I was in Barcelona last week - where are you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Swinson will have been behind scenes discussing amendments, as those MPs who raised her absence very well knew.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I wonder if the existing voter base would like to be consulted before 16/17 year olds and EU citizens are added to the franchise.

    I kind of think they might. Maybe there should be a ref.....
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    We should not be seeking to make such a major constitutional change at this point in time.

    There are those who want a debate - which is fine - I believe they are wrong. 18 is a perfectly legitimate age to become an adult. And voting is a right that should only come with the advent of adulthood.

    Other than the special case of Irish citizens, why should the UK offer GE voting rights to EU nationals - when that is a right that is not afforded in any other EU nation?

    A national debate on such issues - fine. Trying to rush it through now is just wrong. The timing does not allow for a seemly extension of the franchise to new groups even it were desirable.

    Serious commentators do not believe that there is adequate time for this sort of extension to take place in a fair way.
  • Last news bulletin I heard was 11am, and the election was on.

    Am I now to understand that it is off?
  • RobD said:

    The absence of Swinson was interesting. Are enough washing their hair to let the Gvt win?

    Edit - nope. Here we got with the votes at 16 and EU amendments.

    Both of those are wrecking amendments as that isn’t feasible before the date listed in the bill.
    Why aren't they feasible?

    EU electors are already on the electoral register and, while 16-17 year olds would need to hurry up to register, there's no reason the election couldn't go ahead despite many not having done so.

    They may not be desirable for Johnson... and may be enough for him to vote against his own election plan. But they are certainly feasible in practical terms.
    They are more feasible and less damaging than no deal Brexit would have been, plenty were content to inflict that on us.
This discussion has been closed.