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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The General Election – identifying the top bell weather seats

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:
    But he puts chocolate on his coffee....
    Some of the best people...
    Incoming in 5,4,3......
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    This thread has voted for an election
  • Deidre Brock (SNP) giving a very funny speech.

    I like the line "we will burn that bride when we get to it"
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    My intro to PB was finding it through a recommendation on Twitter, around the time of the Glasgow East by-election. I won a nice sum, thanks to advice on here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Glasgow_East_by-election

    It would be nice if this current predicament draws to some sort of conclusion, and we can get back to trying to win money...

    Mine was 2006 when the bookies horribly mispriced the London council elections. Tories at odds of 5/1 and 6/1 in Bexley and Croydon and the like.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Will the government accept 9th December if the amendment passes? (I think they should)
    Chuka just said that the government may adjust their date to a compromise

    So to the end, this parliament is arguing over 3 days

    Put it out of it's misery now
    You talk as though all of this were happening independent of a rotten government and its rotten predecessor.
    It is a rotten parliament. Each and everyone of them

    Time for a total re-boot

    And I am relaxed at the outcome. Either Boris wins and we leave or there will be a referendum (not the absurd named peoples vote) in Summer 2020
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    IanB2 said:

    Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on @LBC:

    “I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election.

    Assuming this is a post-WWII record then that's not too hard to achieve if both the SNP and Liberal Democrats do well in the same election for the first time.

    It does mean that if the Tories have any majority that Labour would have to be on a very low number of seats.

    I wonder who PBers would tip for coming third in MPs - SNP or Liberal Democrats?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    IanB2 said:

    Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on @LBC:

    “I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election.

    He was my politics professor in 1987 and said the same then !
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on @LBC:

    “I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election.

    When did SNP have their breakthrough - 2015?

    If so that was when the LibDems collapsed

    All he’s saying is SNP reclaim their peak plus some LibDem recovery - not a bold prediction
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Cat Smith would benefit from a bit of coaching in pitch and intonation.
  • I assume that as Lindsay Hoyle has ruled all amendments apart from the date, the HOLs speaker will follow suit
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    GIN1138 said:

    Will the government accept 9th December if the amendment passes? (I think they should)
    Chuka just said that the government may adjust their date to a compromise

    So to the end, this parliament is arguing over 3 days

    Put it out of it's misery now
    [Pedantic point about apostrophes redacted]
  • viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Will the government accept 9th December if the amendment passes? (I think they should)
    Chuka just said that the government may adjust their date to a compromise

    So to the end, this parliament is arguing over 3 days

    Put it out of it's misery now
    [Pedantic point about apostrophes redacted]
    Thank you
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Code, when proofing my own work, the discovery of errant apostrophes (especially "it's" for the possessive) is horrendous. Probably the most loathsome of mistakes to make.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on @LBC:

    “I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election.

    He was my politics professor in 1987 and said the same then !
    He’s usually right.

    I take his predictions very seriously.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    I would put all of that at 18.

    Adopt a child at 18? That feels wrong.

    I think the desire for perfect consistency in these matter is misplaced.
    I think this is key.
    After all, the human brain is developing through adolescence to the age of 25 or even 30.
    Adulthood is not a threshold, it's a journey. It's a change in state that occurs gradually over a prolonged period of time.
    Of course the legal system, justice system, health system, education system and, yes, electoral system needs to place thresholds at one point or another, but aside from the desire for imposed artificial neatness, there's no reason why the thresholds for everything need to be in the same position. It's just our desire to pigeonhole and categorise things neatly that makes us want to do things (according to Kahnemann and Twesrky, it's the desire to reduce cognitive load: if we can just chuck things into a pigeonhole that we made earlier, we don't have to think. If that pigeonhole isn't a perfect fit or even relevant, well, so be it).

    I do not know where I am on votes for 16-year-olds. I feel highly skeptical on it, but is that just because I grew up with 18 as the done thing?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited October 2019
    I have just watched Corbyn announce the start of his campaign. He's an attractive politician and I suspect we're all underestimating him. What's more his followers adore him. You can see it. I think in the midst of all the criticism and spending so much time on the back foot it was easy to forget his qualities. He has an aura and an honesty that could be quite a USP.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Roger said:

    I have just watched Corbyn announce the start of his campaign. He's an attractive politician and I suspect we're all underestimating him. What's more his followers adore him. You can see it. I think in the midst of all the criticism and always being on the back foot it was easy to forget his qualities. He has an aura and an honesty and in to days politics that could be quite a USP.

    He is the most unpopular leader of the opposition in history.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Roger said:

    I have just watched Corbyn announce the start of his campaign. He's an attractive politician and I suspect we're all underestimating him. What's more his followers adore him. You can see it. I think in the midst of all the criticism and always being on the back foot it was easy to forget his qualities. He has an aura and an honesty and in to days politics that could be quite a USP.

    I don't see the appeal of such devotion, frankly, and his qualities were not so apparenty that he remained happily anonymous on the back benches for 30 years,

    However, you are right that he is underestimated and that adoration, however much I do not understand it, is useful.

    But it does have limitations, and there are reasons he has spent years struggling with his own MPs and poor ratings - MPs want an easy life, they don't express such concerns without reservations being genuine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    I would put all of that at 18.

    Adopt a child at 18? That feels wrong.

    I think the desire for perfect consistency in these matter is misplaced.
    Perfect consistency may not be reasonable, but more consistency than we have at present is not, and there are many things where the basic question of if we think they are children or adults would see changes to the age limits.
  • Roger said:

    I have just watched Corbyn announce the start of his campaign. He's an attractive politician and I suspect we're all underestimating him. What's more his followers adore him. You can see it. I think in the midst of all the criticism and spending so much time on the back foot it was easy to forget his qualities. He has an aura and an honesty that could be quite a USP.

    Honesty? Can't even get his story straight about a wreath.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on @LBC:

    “I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election.

    He was my politics professor in 1987 and said the same then !
    He’s usually right.

    I take his predictions very seriously.
    Oh yes he's great. He does tend to be optimistic where the LibDems are concerned though.
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