I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.
I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.
I really hope I’m wrong.
That would be hilarious and deserved.
How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.
Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
A differently hung Parliament is not impossible. The Lib Dems holding the balance of power would make a change of leadership of at least one of the main parties almost inevitable.
Differently hung sure but more hung seems unlikely.
Relative to today the Tories pretty much need to gain seats or head to the opposition benches. And I can't see there being so many independents as there are now.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote. Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?
If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.
They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
Don't count your chickens. This Parliament is more than capable of not being able to reach an agreement about what day of the week that the election takes place on. Indeed, it would be a fitting epitaph.
To me it has echoes of British Leyland strikes over how many minutes of 'washing up time' was to be allowed after tea breaks.
The addiction to having pointless disputes while public goodwill falls ever lower.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
But that's the point, isn't it? Johnson would be able to say, "see, Parliament's last action was to block Brexit." Whereas, as it is, that message is undermined by the fact they DID approve his bill.
One party it really isn't a gamble for is the SNP.
Heads Corbyn needs them for confidence and supply Tails the Tories win and a big boost for indyref2.
SNP actually still polling well below 2015 levels, if the Tories win they will block indyref2, if the LDs hold the balance of power they will block Corbyn as PM and indyref2.
The SNP need Corbyn to have most seats but need SNP only confidence and supply, unlikely on current polls
I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.
I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.
I really hope I’m wrong.
That would be hilarious and deserved.
How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.
Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
A differently hung Parliament is not impossible. The Lib Dems holding the balance of power would make a change of leadership of at least one of the main parties almost inevitable.
Differently hung sure but more hung seems unlikely.
Depends how you define it. A Parliament which required a change of party leader before a government could be formed might be one way.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
True, stating the obvious can become a bit tedious.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
But that's the point, isn't it? Johnson would be able to say, "see, Parliament's last action was to block Brexit." Whereas, as it is, that message is undermined by the fact they DID approve his bill.
Fine, but it makes the supposed fear his Brexit could still be approved if the day is the 12th a lie.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
F1: Verstappen's win odds down to 7, from 10 yesterday. Might still be worth considering, but obviously not so good, especially the each way (fifth the odds top 3).
Football: Leicester 4.5 to win without Liverpool/Manchester City. I really don't like adding more money to my accounts, but if I had more money in Betfair (having backed at 8 or suchlike) I'd be tempted to hedge at 5, then play hedge the favourite throughout the season.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
He can’t
Yawn.
Yawn, fall asleep, and in your dreams, imagine you are a LD/SNP/Lab/BXP spinner in charge of assembling evidence that Boris is a serial liar. When you wake up, you will no doubt find this is just what these parties have done.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
But that's the point, isn't it? Johnson would be able to say, "see, Parliament's last action was to block Brexit." Whereas, as it is, that message is undermined by the fact they DID approve his bill.
The public see
1. Boris got a deal - despite being told he wasn't trying/it was impossible.
2. He has tried to get that Deal through the House.
3. The House has played endless games to block it, because they are predominantly Remainers.
I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.
I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.
I really hope I’m wrong.
That would be hilarious and deserved.
How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.
Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
A differently hung Parliament is not impossible. The Lib Dems holding the balance of power would make a change of leadership of at least one of the main parties almost inevitable.
Differently hung sure but more hung seems unlikely.
Relative to today the Tories pretty much need to gain seats or head to the opposition benches. And I can't see there being so many independents as there are now.
Not quite. If the Tories merely won the same number of seats as they won in 2017, they could count on DUP support in voting down a new updated Benn Act to rule out leaving on 31st Jan 2020 should parliament not agree to the WAB or any other agreement. Johnson could count on his own MPs, in contrast to the vote on the Benn Act. That would leave open the possibility of Johnson heading back to the EU with restored leverage to seek some further concession that might bring the DUP onside in voting for a Johnson WAB Mk2.
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
A reasonable question. I suppose the answer is that the opposition wish to avoid the spectacle of Johnson posturing in the Commons for a couple of days just before the ensuing election.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say: "Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
He can’t
Yawn.
Yawn, fall asleep, and in your dreams, imagine you are a LD/SNP/Lab/BXP spinner in charge of assembling evidence that Boris is a serial liar. When you wake up, you will no doubt find this is just what these parties have done.
The voters aren't interested though. Which is what these spinners will discover.
I used it to calculate the constituencies with the largest and smallest cumulative Lab to Con swing over the three elections.
It seems that Cannock Chase has the largest cumulative Con to Lab swing at +20% over the three elections. Bradford West has the smallest at -20%, i.e. a cumulative swing to Con of +20%.
Any Tory MPs who vote against a GE today because they say they want time for the WAB to go through will look awfully silly when the HOC continues to find reasons to block or delay the WAB.
I dont think the EU will be much pleased if the GE Bill is not approved today.
I used it to calculate the constituencies with the largest and smallest cumulative Lab to Con swing over the three elections.
It seems that Cannock Chase has the largest cumulative Con to Lab swing at +20% over the three elections. Bradford West has the smallest at -20%, i.e. a cumulative swing to Con of +20%.
Interesting re Cannock Chase and Bradford West.
I think this is the only totally original idea I've ever come up with: the idea of swing bellwethers.
Actually it might be helpful to highlight the seats in the list that are Con/Lab marginals. I might do that later.
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
Until any hour* Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: Business of the House (Motion) (*if the 7.00pm Business of the House and Deferred Divisions Motion is agreed to) Up to six hours from commencement of the Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: Business of the House Motion** Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: All Stages (**if the Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: Business of the House Motion is agreed to)
No debate Presentation of Public Petitions Until 7.30pm or for half an hour
Adjournment Debate: Mining of minerals in Barford (Matt Western)
I do worry that the pushing through legislation in a day tactic might become a trend rather than very rare occurrence. Depending how pliant the party and numbers in the lords, there could be high temptation in future
When Parliament wants to something done, it gets it done at lightning speed.....
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
In summary, then: We have a govt which has broken its central promise; an opposition which does not want an election to make them pay for it; two anti Brexit parties offering to break the deadlock in a way that could enable Brexit; & an EU which cannot do anything about any of it
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
"Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority" - which makes him different to every other ambitious politician how, precisely?
Isn't there a technique used in the legal profession where a third party guarantees an agreement between two parties who don't trust each other? Maybe they could do something like that.
The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Thanks for this.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
But that's the point, isn't it? Johnson would be able to say, "see, Parliament's last action was to block Brexit." Whereas, as it is, that message is undermined by the fact they DID approve his bill.
The public see
1. Boris got a deal - despite being told he wasn't trying/it was impossible.
2. He has tried to get that Deal through the House.
3. The House has played endless games to block it, because they are predominantly Remainers.
Not my view. Feedback from the doorsteps.
I'm sure that's true. And understandable. However, election campaigns do change views. Look what happened last time, where the position was similar!
There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
Isn't there a technique used in the legal profession where a third party guarantees an agreement between two parties who don't trust each other? Maybe they could do something like that.
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
"Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority" - which makes him different to every other ambitious politician how, precisely?
Ideally, all PMs would like to be PM with a large majority. I think Nick's point is Johnson ONLY wants to be PM with a healthy majority as he's got no interest in compromise and isn't good at it. It's the whole "world king" aspect of him.
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
Agreed.
It struck me reading yesterday's thread header that the LDs could not be primarily concerned about Brexit if they were putting lots of resources into bolstering their position in the Lab-Con marginal of Bedford. Their primary aim remains I think that of supplanting Labour as the main party opposing the Tories (in a PR based system of course). If the LDs deny Labour tactical anti Brexit votes and Labour loses badly, it puts the LDs closer to that goal.
I think that the LDs will be well pleased if they secure 50 seats at the GE and second places in say 150 more, with Labour reduced to around 200 seats. That would set the LDs up nicely for the future.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
This is all true, and a reflection of the parliamentary arithmetic. Once Johnson got a deal, the chance of a GONU, VONC or 2nd referendum in this parliament all but disappeared, having been plausible beforehand. It is now just about the timing and conditions of the election or accepting the Johnson deal as a price worth paying for carrying on with this parliament.
As with Brexit generally there are no good options available, so people have to seek out the least damaging.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
It is possible some people think like this. It would be extraordinary if it was so widespread and also changed peoples voting preferences.
Any Tory MPs who vote against a GE today because they say they want time for the WAB to go through will look awfully silly when the HOC continues to find reasons to block or delay the WAB.
I dont think the EU will be much pleased if the GE Bill is not approved today.
MPs will just try and add a Customs Union or EUref2 if no GE to the WAB
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
"Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority" - which makes him different to every other ambitious politician how, precisely?
Ideally, all PMs would like to be PM with a large majority. I think Nick's point is Johnson ONLY wants to be PM with a healthy majority as he's got no interest in compromise and isn't good at it. It's the whole "world king" aspect of him.
Whereas Tony Blair wanted to go into politics to make a difference and bring about world peace? How did that pan out?
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
Boris will fight a more populist campaign than May but a general election fought on Brexit will be easier to fight than letting Corbyn try to fight one against austerity
Any Tory MPs who vote against a GE today because they say they want time for the WAB to go through will look awfully silly when the HOC continues to find reasons to block or delay the WAB.
I dont think the EU will be much pleased if the GE Bill is not approved today.
MPs will just try and add a Customs Union or EUref2 if no GE to the WAB
Which would get voted on and if successfully passed, then we have a Brexit which is a compromise pulling together as many wings as possible.
The ones that don't satisfy the House, don't get passed and the bill continues to trundle through on its way to becoming law.
It's not that complicated, y'know.
p.s. except, of course, that as ever this is all pandering to the nutjobs on the far right who, having screwed the Party are trying to screw the country.
Labour vote below the levels that Tony Blair achieved. Such is the deflation of Magic Grandpa's balloon. Corbyn's now looking more like a festive inflatable disovered behind the sofa in March.....
Canterbury will be one of the most interesting seats to watch. Labour majority = 187 votes. The MP may get an incumbency boost and the city is moving in a Labour direction due to the university influence.
Any Tory MPs who vote against a GE today because they say they want time for the WAB to go through will look awfully silly when the HOC continues to find reasons to block or delay the WAB.
I dont think the EU will be much pleased if the GE Bill is not approved today.
MPs will just try and add a Customs Union or EUref2 if no GE to the WAB
Which would get voted on and if successfully passed then we have a Brexit which is a compromise pulling together as many wings as possible.
The ones that don't satisfy the House, don't get passed and the bill continues to trundle through on its way to becoming law.
It's not that complicated, y'know.
No as Tory MPs would vote down a Customs Union as would LD and SNP MPs without EUref2 and Tory MPs and many Labour MPs from Leave seats would vote down EUref2
Interesting article by Raphael Behr. I was struck by the final para -
"The material benefits of Brexit are remote if they exist at all, and the costs high. There will be an instant of gratification for leavers on the day of symbolic escape from Europe, and relief for the bored agnostics. But those feelings will, I suspect, be weak and transient compared with the anguish and loss felt on the other side. Leavers will not thank politicians for Brexit, not with the passion and persistence of the remainers who will punish them for it."
I think this might be true. We often note (rightly) the passion on the Leave side but it is there and growing fast on the Remain side too. The loss of something intangible and not about economics. A European liberal progressive identity. It could be that post Brexit this becomes a stronger force than the insular nationalism that appears to be in the box seat right now.
Johnson's -55% being the lowest recorded for a party leader is quite encouraging. At least students still care whether their leaders are lying charlatans.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
See what you mean, but are people's memories that good? Also 'the last time we had an election it didn't solve anything!'
And, see Brenda from Bristol. There seems to have been an election of some sort going on for ever.
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
IMHO *all* the parties are now focusing on maximising their seat count at the impending election, and Brexit has become secondary. Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority - he sees an early election as great, given current polling, and why wouldn't he? Labour is looking at the polls and finding any excuse not to. Swinson and Blackford want an election while the polls are good, but don't want to be blamed for handing Johnson a fat majority, so they quibble about 9/10/11/12. The fact that no opposition party has a credible plan to get an Brexit outcome that they don't hate is being obscured.
"Johnson has always just wanted to be PM with a nice majority" - which makes him different to every other ambitious politician how, precisely?
Ideally, all PMs would like to be PM with a large majority. I think Nick's point is Johnson ONLY wants to be PM with a healthy majority as he's got no interest in compromise and isn't good at it. It's the whole "world king" aspect of him.
Whereas Tony Blair wanted to go into politics to make a difference and bring about world peace? How did that pan out?
Good for health service, education, employee rights, NI peace, gay rights, reducing homelessness and child poverty.
So if Tom N-D is correct, No 10 may be about to compromise with the LibDems / SNP for Dec 10th or 11th. It sounds petty but in a way it's quite smart by both sides.
10 and 11 Dec are Champions League football nights.
12 December is a Europa League night - for Scotland, Celtic are away in Romania, while Rangers are at home with an 8PM kick-off and might go straight from work to the game. I wonder if that could reduce the Unionist vote
Isn't there a technique used in the legal profession where a third party guarantees an agreement between two parties who don't trust each other? Maybe they could do something like that.
escrow.
Thanks! An old employer of mine and one of their customers had an escrow agreement. I now realize it's because they didn't trust each other. Looking back it makes perfect sense.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
So, build more council homes then as we are doing in Epping Forest for the homeless.
Plus the spare room subsidy was correctly removed for those who do not use rooms, most Buckingham Palace rooms are used for state events, receptions, dinners etc
Jeremy: Mummy,mummy can we see the election yet? Jo Swinson: Not yet darling. You just play with your kindle for a few more miles and then Mummy will tell you when we get there.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
Assuming people's expectations weren't reset in 2017...
FWIW I also think this was a material factor two years ago, albeit not the most critical.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
It is possible some people think like this. It would be extraordinary if it was so widespread and also changed peoples voting preferences.
A sort of political circadian rhythm. Like when people's sleep circadian rhythms get broken, they get crabby with whoever woke them up (May in 2017). The political circadian rhythms are now telling people it is the right time to vote (Boris will benefit in 2019).
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
So, build more council homes then as we are doing in Epping Forest for the homeless.
Plus the spare room subsidy was correctly removed for those who do not use rooms, most Buckingham Palace rooms are used for state events, receptions, dinners etc
Build a nice five bed three reception roomed detached house in the grounds and turn that palace into a full time museum if it can be economically renovated and show a profit from admission charges.
11 and 12 Dec will be the two most popular nights of the year for works Christmas parties. Just saying.
I thought Friday before Christmas was normally the most popular, the 20th, probably followed by the 13th? Though either way I doubt it affects things, people can vote before work, on [lunch] breaks, or after work and before the party, I doubt it will affect turnout. It might marginally affect the viewership of the results coming in but I don't think that's something we need to sweat about.
Plus a lot of parties will only get booked next month and if anyone is that bothered about it they can avoid the clash.
I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.
I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.
I really hope I’m wrong.
That would be hilarious and deserved.
How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.
Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
A differently hung Parliament is not impossible. The Lib Dems holding the balance of power would make a change of leadership of at least one of the main parties almost inevitable.
Differently hung sure but more hung seems unlikely.
Relative to today the Tories pretty much need to gain seats or head to the opposition benches. And I can't see there being so many independents as there are now.
Not quite. If the Tories merely won the same number of seats as they won in 2017, they could count on DUP support in voting down a new updated Benn Act to rule out leaving on 31st Jan 2020 should parliament not agree to the WAB or any other agreement. Johnson could count on his own MPs, in contrast to the vote on the Benn Act. That would leave open the possibility of Johnson heading back to the EU with restored leverage to seek some further concession that might bring the DUP onside in voting for a Johnson WAB Mk2.
I agree but that's not what I said. I didn't say relative to 2017 I said relative to today.
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
Is this really what's driving him? I'm not so sure. I do take the point that he will want a majority post Brexit. But isn't the real issue the one alluded to by HYUFD, namely that he thinks the WAB will be successfully amended in Parliament and that it will no longer resemble his deal. The killer there is that the Brexiteers would hate an amended WAB that includes things like a customs union.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
So, build more council homes then as we are doing in Epping Forest for the homeless.
Plus the spare room subsidy was correctly removed for those who do not use rooms, most Buckingham Palace rooms are used for state events, receptions, dinners etc
Build a nice five bed three reception roomed detached house in the grounds and turn that palace into a full time museum if it can be economically renovated and show a profit from admission charges.
Where are you going to host state banquets, receptions, garden parties and investitures?
I respect the republican point of view, but moving in that direction wouldn’t actually save money.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
No they don't. There'd have to be such a thing as a bedroom tax in order to pay it.
There is a difference between a tax and a benefit. If someone in a council tax who is paying all taxes due but not claiming benefits has unoccupied rooms how much "tax" do they pay for their bedrooms?
11 and 12 Dec will be the two most popular nights of the year for works Christmas parties. Just saying.
I thought Friday before Christmas was normally the most popular, the 20th, probably followed by the 13th? Though either way I doubt it affects things, people can vote before work, on [lunch] breaks, or after work and before the party, I doubt it will affect turnout. It might marginally affect the viewership of the results coming in but I don't think that's something we need to sweat about.
Plus a lot of parties will only get booked next month and if anyone is that bothered about it they can avoid the clash.
LOL – no chance. Parties and venues will have been booked for months, at least down here. You really have no idea.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
So, build more council homes then as we are doing in Epping Forest for the homeless.
Plus the spare room subsidy was correctly removed for those who do not use rooms, most Buckingham Palace rooms are used for state events, receptions, dinners etc
Build a nice five bed three reception roomed detached house in the grounds and turn that palace into a full time museum if it can be economically renovated and show a profit from admission charges.
Where are you going to host state banquets, receptions, garden parties and investitures?
I respect the republican point of view, but moving in that direction wouldn’t actually save money.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
It is possible some people think like this. It would be extraordinary if it was so widespread and also changed peoples voting preferences.
A sort of political circadian rhythm. Like when people's sleep circadian rhythms get broken, they get crabby with whoever woke them up (May in 2017). The political circadian rhythms are now telling people it is the right time to vote (Boris will benefit in 2019).
Niche, as I said.
I kind of could buy into the expectations of a 4/5 year cycle like a circadian rhythm. Just very confused why it determines which way people vote. Are you suggesting the swing voters main concern is the timing of the election rather than NHS, Brexit, economy?
Her Majesty is over 65 and so is exempt from the Bedroom Tax. The policy being everything to do with punishing the ' wrong ' sort of claimants and nothing to do with disincentiving having ' spare ' rooms.
Anyone bloody seething this morning at the state of our politicians? This tweet sums up my feelings. I have seen some crap from MPs over the years, but this arguing over the date of a GE that "saves face" is a new low.
I am starting to come round to the view that we need to sweep the whole bloody lot of them away, which is most unlike me.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
No they don't. There'd have to be such a thing as a bedroom tax in order to pay it.
There is a difference between a tax and a benefit. If someone in a council tax who is paying all taxes due but not claiming benefits has unoccupied rooms how much "tax" do they pay for their bedrooms?
We pay millions a year for the likes of Prince Andrew to consort with a nonce.
Comments
Relative to today the Tories pretty much need to gain seats or head to the opposition benches. And I can't see there being so many independents as there are now.
FWIW, this is what the Drew Hendry SNP had to say:
"Boris Johnson simply can't be trusted. We must wait and see what is put down," he said, adding that the reason his party backed a 9 December poll was to stop "Brexit but also this terrible Brexit [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill."
The addiction to having pointless disputes while public goodwill falls ever lower.
The SNP need Corbyn to have most seats but need SNP only confidence and supply, unlikely on current polls
A Parliament which required a change of party leader before a government could be formed might be one way.
After the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the voting age was set at 15 and remained there for about 20 or 25 years. They raised it to 18 a few years ago.
Football: Leicester 4.5 to win without Liverpool/Manchester City. I really don't like adding more money to my accounts, but if I had more money in Betfair (having backed at 8 or suchlike) I'd be tempted to hedge at 5, then play hedge the favourite throughout the season.
1. Boris got a deal - despite being told he wasn't trying/it was impossible.
2. He has tried to get that Deal through the House.
3. The House has played endless games to block it, because they are predominantly Remainers.
Not my view. Feedback from the doorsteps.
I used it to calculate the constituencies with the largest and smallest cumulative Lab to Con swing over the three elections.
It seems that Cannock Chase has the largest cumulative Con to Lab swing at +20% over the three elections. Bradford West has the smallest at -20%, i.e. a cumulative swing to Con of +20%.
House of Commons
Main Chamber
11:30am
Oral questions
Health and Social Care (including Topical Questions)
Legislation
Animal Welfare (Sentencing) Bill: 2nd reading
Adjournment
Mining of minerals in Barford"
https://www.parliament.uk/business/commons/
Any Tory MPs who vote against a GE today because they say they want time for the WAB to go through will look awfully silly when the HOC continues to find reasons to block or delay the WAB.
I dont think the EU will be much pleased if the GE Bill is not approved today.
I think this is the only totally original idea I've ever come up with: the idea of swing bellwethers.
Actually it might be helpful to highlight the seats in the list that are Con/Lab marginals. I might do that later.
11.30am Prayers
Afterwards Oral Questions: Health and Social Care
12.30pm Urgent Questions, Ministerial Statements (if any)
No debate Presentation of Bills
Until any hour* Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: Business of the House (Motion)
(*if the 7.00pm Business of the House and Deferred Divisions Motion is agreed to)
Up to six hours from commencement of the Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: Business of the House Motion**
Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: All Stages
(**if the Early Parliamentary General Election Bill: Business of the House Motion is agreed to)
No debate Presentation of Public Petitions
Until 7.30pm or for half an hour
Adjournment Debate: Mining of minerals in Barford (Matt Western)
In summary, then: We have a govt which has broken its central promise; an opposition which does not want an election to make them pay for it; two anti Brexit parties offering to break the deadlock in a way that could enable Brexit; & an EU which cannot do anything about any of it
https://twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1189106375856668672?s=21
However, election campaigns do change views. Look what happened last time, where the position was similar!
There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
Do you think Jacks ARSE may make a reappearance for this election?
https://order-order.com/2019/10/29/student-vote-irrelevant/
It struck me reading yesterday's thread header that the LDs could not be primarily concerned about Brexit if they were putting lots of resources into bolstering their position in the Lab-Con marginal of Bedford. Their primary aim remains I think that of supplanting Labour as the main party opposing the Tories (in a PR based system of course). If the LDs deny Labour tactical anti Brexit votes and Labour loses badly, it puts the LDs closer to that goal.
I think that the LDs will be well pleased if they secure 50 seats at the GE and second places in say 150 more, with Labour reduced to around 200 seats. That would set the LDs up nicely for the future.
https://www.youthsight.com/blog/labours-vote-share-and-jeremy-corbyns-popularity-drops
As with Brexit generally there are no good options available, so people have to seek out the least damaging.
The ones that don't satisfy the House, don't get passed and the bill continues to trundle through on its way to becoming law.
It's not that complicated, y'know.
p.s. except, of course, that as ever this is all pandering to the nutjobs on the far right who, having screwed the Party are trying to screw the country.
Yes, Friday night is the weekend so won’t be anywhere as popular for work dos
"The material benefits of Brexit are remote if they exist at all, and the costs high. There will be an instant of gratification for leavers on the day of symbolic escape from Europe, and relief for the bored agnostics. But those feelings will, I suspect, be weak and transient compared with the anguish and loss felt on the other side. Leavers will not thank politicians for Brexit, not with the passion and persistence of the remainers who will punish them for it."
I think this might be true. We often note (rightly) the passion on the Leave side but it is there and growing fast on the Remain side too. The loss of something intangible and not about economics. A European liberal progressive identity. It could be that post Brexit this becomes a stronger force than the insular nationalism that appears to be in the box seat right now.
I'm feeling sunny side up today as you can see.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/remain-identity-survive-brexit-young-generation
Also 'the last time we had an election it didn't solve anything!'
And, see Brenda from Bristol. There seems to have been an election of some sort going on for ever.
Plus the spare room subsidy was correctly removed for those who do not use rooms, most Buckingham Palace rooms are used for state events, receptions, dinners etc
Jo Swinson: Not yet darling. You just play with your kindle for a few more miles and then Mummy will tell you when we get there.
FWIW I also think this was a material factor two years ago, albeit not the most critical.
Niche, as I said.
Interesting innovation of having to rapidly react without time to think to choices such as "Tory majority and Brexit" versus "Corbyn as PM".
The last question was "Would you vote the same if you were drunk or sober Y/N"!!
https://www.youthsight.com/blog/labours-vote-share-and-jeremy-corbyns-popularity-drops
Plus a lot of parties will only get booked next month and if anyone is that bothered about it they can avoid the clash.
I respect the republican point of view, but moving in that direction wouldn’t actually save money.
There is a difference between a tax and a benefit. If someone in a council tax who is paying all taxes due but not claiming benefits has unoccupied rooms how much "tax" do they pay for their bedrooms?
Anyone bloody seething this morning at the state of our politicians? This tweet sums up my feelings. I have seen some crap from MPs over the years, but this arguing over the date of a GE that "saves face" is a new low.
I am starting to come round to the view that we need to sweep the whole bloody lot of them away, which is most unlike me.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1189112722778013696