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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Somehow I can't bring myself to believe that this wretched and dishonest Parliament will match Cawdor:


    "That very frankly he confess'd his treasons,
    Implored your highness' pardon and set forth
    A deep repentance: nothing in his life
    Became him like the leaving it; he died
    As one that had been studied in his death
    To throw away the dearest thing he owed,
    As 'twere a careless trifle."

    I fear that, as with everything else, this Parliament will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to judgement day, still trying to find just one more piece of indecision to inflict on us.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    edited October 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    We are a divided country, nothing reflects that better than parliaments gridlock. It may not only continue, but could get worse, there may not even be the majority for extension after an election - that could lead to no deal if there really is no majority for anything.
    I'm not in favour of unelected assemblies making decisions, but it might be an idea to let the House of Lords have an 'advisory' go at suggesting a way forward.
    Rory Stewart suggested a citizens assembly. I would far prefer that.
    We couldn't all assemble, so we would have to delegate to a workable number of representatives, say in the mid-600s, and send them to a suitable venue in, let's say, central London to debate and vote on the issues. Good plan.
    There is a big difference between how career politicians under the threat and patronage of the whip think and act, compared to how citizens elected by lot would to resolve Brexit.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I can't decide whether the one line bill is more absurd than the Act that makes one necessary.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    Johnson has already shown himself willing to abandon Northern Ireland, why not Scotland too?
  • I can't decide whether the one line bill is more absurd than the Act that makes one necessary.
    In one way he is right but FTPA is not exactly a long standing part of our constitution and does seem to have been writted with a particular parliament in mind that has passed. If that parliament could choose the FTPA, why should this parliament not be able to amend it?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So we are ignoring the signed letter Boris sent accepting the extension then?

    OK, sure.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    AndyJS said:

    A very honest Owen Smith on Newsnight last night, at 16 mins 10 secs:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0009tvn/newsnight-28102019

    I thought he was pretty good. It's not his fault Labour have a donkey leading them and he's right that Corbyn's pusillaninimity during the referendum is why we're in this situation now. It's therefore difficult for Remaiers to feel sorry for him now he's had the last few levers of power taken from him. Having said that we are where we are and he's a hell of a lot better than Johnson. So let's hope someone out there can organise the tactical vote.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    Johnson has already shown himself willing to abandon Northern Ireland, why not Scotland too?
    Sadly Bluekip are an English nationalist party, of course they would be delighted to permanently wipe 59 typically left leaning foreign seats from Westminster.
  • Alistair said:

    So we are ignoring the signed letter Boris sent accepting the extension then?

    OK, sure.

    The one with the power to decide if its ignored or not is Farage. Anyone elses view is probably irrelevant to the GE outcome.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So if Tom N-D is correct, No 10 may be about to compromise with the LibDems / SNP for Dec 10th or 11th. It sounds petty but in a way it's quite smart by both sides.

    10 and 11 Dec are Champions League football nights.
    Irrelevant
    Liverpool and Chelsea play Tuesday evening, Liverpool and Man City on the Wednesday.

    Both are likely to affect evening turnout.
    You know BT Sport Champions League viewing figures measure in the hundreds of thousands rather than millions? It's utterly irrelevant to turnout.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    BBC interviewer to Barry Gardiner: "So you're definitely going to vote against an election today?"

    BG: "Not at all".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So if Tom N-D is correct, No 10 may be about to compromise with the LibDems / SNP for Dec 10th or 11th. It sounds petty but in a way it's quite smart by both sides.

    10 and 11 Dec are Champions League football nights.
    Irrelevant
    Liverpool and Chelsea play Tuesday evening, Liverpool and Man City on the Wednesday.

    Both are likely to affect evening turnout.
    You know BT Sport Champions League viewing figures measure in the hundreds of thousands rather than millions? It's utterly irrelevant to turnout.
    Gives us something to do until the exit poll. Looks like a win win to me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    AndyJS said:

    BBC interviewer to Barry Gardiner: "So you're definitely going to vote against an election today?"

    BG: "Not at all".

    He's never quite worked out that Blinky in the Thick of it was a comic invention, not a role model.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    Why not, they would never do a full partnership with Tories but if guaranteed referendum powers transferred to Holyrood then they would be stupid not to take it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Don't count your chickens. This Parliament is more than capable of not being able to reach an agreement about what day of the week that the election takes place on. Indeed, it would be a fitting epitaph.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Alistair said:

    So we are ignoring the signed letter Boris sent accepting the extension then?

    OK, sure.

    The one with the power to decide if its ignored or not is Farage. Anyone elses view is probably irrelevant to the GE outcome.
    The one HY prediction I am sure many of us remember is that no Brexit on 31 October means Farage will be the next PM...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    Johnson has already shown himself willing to abandon Northern Ireland, why not Scotland too?
    He cares not a jot for Scotland, if it gets him what he wants he will ditch us pronto
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I can't decide which would be worse for Labour: most Labour MPs voting against an election but it goes through anyway, or Labour MPs being split 50/50 on an election and it goes through anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Don't count your chickens. This Parliament is more than capable of not being able to reach an agreement about what day of the week that the election takes place on. Indeed, it would be a fitting epitaph.
    Oh, I’m not counting anything.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Because the people are crying out for an election on a Champions League night in the run-up to Christmas or for some other reason?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    Somehow I can't bring myself to believe that this wretched and dishonest Parliament will match Cawdor:


    "That very frankly he confess'd his treasons,
    Implored your highness' pardon and set forth
    A deep repentance: nothing in his life
    Became him like the leaving it; he died
    As one that had been studied in his death
    To throw away the dearest thing he owed,
    As 'twere a careless trifle."

    I fear that, as with everything else, this Parliament will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to judgement day, still trying to find just one more piece of indecision to inflict on us.

    This is the most honest and alive parliament I can remember. If your idea of a good parliament is one where 40% or less of the vote gives a PM through patronage and Royal perogative the powers of an unfettered dictator then for your sake I hope you don't find yourself one of the disenfrachised 60% if Jeremy takes control
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Because the people are crying out for an election on a Champions League night in the run-up to Christmas or for some other reason?
    TBH I'm sure an election at Christmas will piss some people off, I wondered if abstaining might be a good tactical move so you can blame the fact we are having an election on other people without actually blocking it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Given that the SNP/LD proposal was driven by a precise timetable, ISTM that voting for a Dec 10 election today is the same as voting for a Dec 9 election yesterday, which Bozo could have done, had he been able to think on his feet.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    I can't decide which would be worse for Labour: most Labour MPs voting against an election but it goes through anyway, or Labour MPs being split 50/50 on an election and it goes through anyway.

    I doubt it will alter a single vote either way.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    Polly seems even more bonkers than usual. Writing her column from her Umbrian?? holiday home >?

    If people think that Corbyn might finish off the Labour Party (which seems to be a fairly common view around here), then it is surely equally plausible that Brexit might finish off the Conservative Party. I'm not convinced by either idea, even though both parties are pretty crap.
  • I can't decide whether the one line bill is more absurd than the Act that makes one necessary.
    You might disagree with the Act, but it isn't absurd. It has in fact stopped the PM from abusing what was a prerogative power to take Britain out without a deal to meet his self-imposed deadline.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Because the people are crying out for an election on a Champions League night in the run-up to Christmas or for some other reason?
    TBH I'm sure an election at Christmas will piss some people off, I wondered if abstaining might be a good tactical move so you can blame the fact we are having an election on other people without actually blocking it.
    I don't see why voting two weeks before Christmas is any sort of problem. If you have a social event or shopping trip planned you can vote in the morning. It might be an argument for avoiding Thursday as that is probably the most common late shopping day
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One party it really isn't a gamble for is the SNP.

    Heads Corbyn needs them for confidence and supply
    Tails the Tories win and a big boost for indyref2.

    SNP say they will consider the 12th, Chuka Umana says he won't.
    It absolutely can't be 12th December but 11th December is absolutely fine!?

    And that, in one sentence sums up the way MPs have gone totally mad! :D
  • DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    BBC interviewer to Barry Gardiner: "So you're definitely going to vote against an election today?"

    BG: "Not at all".

    He's never quite worked out that Blinky in the Thick of it was a comic invention, not a role model.
    What, Barry Gardiner ISN'T a comic invention? I thought he was a Sacha Baron-Cohen character who was wheeled out now and then to provide light relief on otherwise serious current affairs shows? Well, you live and learn.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    Over the last 3 elections, Bedford has been the seat that has swung most closely in line with the national average:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#gid=0
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Keep delaying and eventually it wont happen. Remainers were on the ropes after Johnson got a deal and the ERG accepted it, but thanks to the DUP reaction and his lack of confidence, Boris has let remain make it to the next round of the fight. 1 in 4 seems about right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Because the people are crying out for an election on a Champions League night in the run-up to Christmas or for some other reason?
    TBH I'm sure an election at Christmas will piss some people off, I wondered if abstaining might be a good tactical move so you can blame the fact we are having an election on other people without actually blocking it.
    I don't see why voting two weeks before Christmas is any sort of problem. If you have a social event or shopping trip planned you can vote in the morning. It might be an argument for avoiding Thursday as that is probably the most common late shopping day
    The disruption to your day in having to take five minutes out to vote isn’t the issue. It is the demand that people engage with the campaign and the important choice in front of them, the filling of the holiday media with election campaign news and all the leafleting and canvassing when people are trying to prepare for Xmas that will be the issue.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour must be going for the "People not paying any attention whatsoever" and diehard vote.
    Is Adonis going to set up a filibuster ?

    If it looks like it’s going ahead anyway it wouldn’t surprise me if Labour jump too.

    They don’t want to be the only ones looking like they’re blocking an election.
    Don't count your chickens. This Parliament is more than capable of not being able to reach an agreement about what day of the week that the election takes place on. Indeed, it would be a fitting epitaph.
    It is quite surreal that the issue of whether there is a general election to seek a resolution of the issue that for 3 years has shaken the politics of the country to its core has boiled down to a resolution of the issue of whether or not the election is held up to 3 days earlier in the week than is normally the case.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One party it really isn't a gamble for is the SNP.

    Heads Corbyn needs them for confidence and supply
    Tails the Tories win and a big boost for indyref2.

    SNP say they will consider the 12th, Chuka Umana says he won't.
    It absolutely can't be 12th December but 11th December is absolutely fine!?

    And that, in one sentence sums up the way MPs have gone totally mad! :D
    They seem to think the 12th gives Johnson enough time to break his word and bring back the deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    The break down of the FTPA motion vote.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/28/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    The only real changes from last time are Johnson got more buy in from whipless Tories but lost the DUP. So little gain overall.

    So even those who would lose their jobs did back it, which is interesting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    AndyJS said:

    Over the last 3 elections, Bedford has been the seat that has swung most closely in line with the national average:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#gid=0

    So the LibDems are hoping the causation runs the other way? ;)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One party it really isn't a gamble for is the SNP.

    Heads Corbyn needs them for confidence and supply
    Tails the Tories win and a big boost for indyref2.

    SNP say they will consider the 12th, Chuka Umana says he won't.
    It absolutely can't be 12th December but 11th December is absolutely fine!?

    And that, in one sentence sums up the way MPs have gone totally mad! :D
    Or it might mean that one or both sides think there is a crucial difference between those two dates that will affect the result.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There are 54 SNP and LD MPs, although only 21 of them are required to vote for the bill today since the government had 299 votes yesterday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    kle4 said:

    The break down of the FTPA motion vote.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/28/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election

    The only real changes from last time are Johnson got more buy in from whipless Tories but lost the DUP. So little gain overall.

    So even those who would lose their jobs did back it, which is interesting.
    Their chances may be small, but they are higher the closer the election is to their resignation/defection and whatever prominence in the local media was thereby achieved.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I can't decide which would be worse for Labour: most Labour MPs voting against an election but it goes through anyway, or Labour MPs being split 50/50 on an election and it goes through anyway.

    I doubt it will alter a single vote either way.
    I agree in the long-term it won't matter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Hammond arguing against an election on R4
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Morning all.

    Does anyone have the timings for the HoC day?

    The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.

    Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.

    The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
    Thanks for this.

    I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188947840262955008?s=20
    What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    They did that 7 years ago didn't they?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/oct/15/scottish-independence-referendum-cameron-salmond
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    Johnson has already shown himself willing to abandon Northern Ireland, why not Scotland too?
    He cares not a jot for Scotland, if it gets him what he wants he will ditch us pronto
    I hope so. I'll buy a nice little apartment in Morningsde and remain in the EU and Johnson and his bunch of right wing ultras will be but a distant memory.

    Vive l'ecosse! Vive l'ecosse libre!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    Somehow I can't bring myself to believe that this wretched and dishonest Parliament will match Cawdor:


    "That very frankly he confess'd his treasons,
    Implored your highness' pardon and set forth
    A deep repentance: nothing in his life
    Became him like the leaving it; he died
    As one that had been studied in his death
    To throw away the dearest thing he owed,
    As 'twere a careless trifle."

    I fear that, as with everything else, this Parliament will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to judgement day, still trying to find just one more piece of indecision to inflict on us.

    This is the most honest and alive parliament I can remember. If your idea of a good parliament is one where 40% or less of the vote gives a PM through patronage and Royal perogative the powers of an unfettered dictator then for your sake I hope you don't find yourself one of the disenfrachised 60% if Jeremy takes control
    It was, after all, a very traditional Tory who warned of "elective dictatorship".
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AndyJS said:

    Over the last 3 elections, Bedford has been the seat that has swung most closely in line with the national average:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#gid=0

    The power of Mike Smithson continues to amaze !!
  • Blackford on Sky jusy now wants the election and hopes for the 9th but not rejecting the 12th. Also accepts votes for 16s not practical on this timetable

    Election in December is coming - what are labour going to do. They have lost the initiative comprehensively and are being seen to be dragged to the ballot boxes kicking and screaming

    How on earth have labour got into this mess of it's own making
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    They did that 7 years ago didn't they?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/oct/15/scottish-independence-referendum-cameron-salmond
    They did but it's different electoral dynamics now
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Its clearly a risk but hes bought into his own myth making and given in to the temptation. If he cocks it up Brexit is over so it's not like there is much riding on it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    I'm not in favour of an early GE too but he is rather over selling it and the role of the Lords .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Interesting it was the LibDems who knew where was the loophole in the FTPA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:

    So we are ignoring the signed letter Boris sent accepting the extension then?

    OK, sure.

    It wasn't ignored, it was brought up, it just wasnt very newsworthy - the letter asking for it was the critical one since accepting the offer was mandatory.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    Wilson was a moderate.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    There are 54 SNP and LD MPs, although only 21 of them are required to vote for the bill today since the government had 299 votes yesterday.

    What is the DUP's position? Since the Government has committed to not proceeding with the WAB should today's motion pass, could they come back onside for the Government? (I am assuming that they weren't included in the total of 299 votes yesterday.)
  • IanB2 said:

    Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”

    No sympathy for him. Many of the 21 voted for the programme motion, he did not knowing that he would not regain the whip

    I wonder if all the mps who rebelled against their whips ever thought for a minute they would have to face the consequences so quickly
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    Somehow I can't bring myself to believe that this wretched and dishonest Parliament will match Cawdor:


    "That very frankly he confess'd his treasons,
    Implored your highness' pardon and set forth
    A deep repentance: nothing in his life
    Became him like the leaving it; he died
    As one that had been studied in his death
    To throw away the dearest thing he owed,
    As 'twere a careless trifle."

    I fear that, as with everything else, this Parliament will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to judgement day, still trying to find just one more piece of indecision to inflict on us.

    This is the most honest and alive parliament I can remember. If your idea of a good parliament is one where 40% or less of the vote gives a PM through patronage and Royal perogative the powers of an unfettered dictator then for your sake I hope you don't find yourself one of the disenfrachised 60% if Jeremy takes control
    "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times ..."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    A very honest Owen Smith on Newsnight last night, at 16 mins 10 secs:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0009tvn/newsnight-28102019

    I thought he was pretty good. It's not his fault Labour have a donkey leading them and he's right that Corbyn's pusillaninimity during the referendum is why we're in this situation now. It's therefore difficult for Remaiers to feel sorry for him now he's had the last few levers of power taken from him. Having said that we are where we are and he's a hell of a lot better than Johnson. So let's hope someone out there can organise the tactical vote.
    I think the public will be surprisingly effective in that regard. The hubris among the Tories is thick right now, and it means opponents know they need to work together

    As for Jones, didn't he lose faith with the Jezziah at the last election and regret it later?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    kle4 said:

    Morning all.

    Does anyone have the timings for the HoC day?

    The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.

    Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.

    The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
    Thanks for this.

    I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188947840262955008?s=20
    What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
    There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
  • Roger said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a wild question.

    Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?

    Johnson has already shown himself willing to abandon Northern Ireland, why not Scotland too?
    He cares not a jot for Scotland, if it gets him what he wants he will ditch us pronto
    I hope so. I'll buy a nice little apartment in Morningsde and remain in the EU and Johnson and his bunch of right wing ultras will be but a distant memory.

    Vive l'ecosse! Vive l'ecosse libre!
    I stayed in digs in Morningside when I was a 17 year old starting my first job in Edinburgh

    They were happy days
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    That would be hilarious and deserved.
  • IanB2 said:

    Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”

    If he wanted to determine the future of the party maybe he should have stood in the recent leadership election?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Is it still possible to crash out on Halloween?

    (asking for a friend)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    Wilson was a moderate.
    Not by today's standards he wasn't, unless you think the Wilson governments had nothing to with abolishing capital punishment and legalising abortion, with sex equality, lowering the voting age, and certainly not nationalising half of British industry. Something something Overton window. Cont p94.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    “just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year”

    How does Mike get to 23%/fewer than 1 in 4?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    What happens to the Tory rebels if there’s an election.

    Will they get the whip restored?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    geoffw said:

    Is it still possible to crash out on Halloween?

    (asking for a friend)

    If you are still willing to lend them a bed for the night, yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One party it really isn't a gamble for is the SNP.

    Heads Corbyn needs them for confidence and supply
    Tails the Tories win and a big boost for indyref2.

    SNP say they will consider the 12th, Chuka Umana says he won't.
    It absolutely can't be 12th December but 11th December is absolutely fine!?

    And that, in one sentence sums up the way MPs have gone totally mad! :D
    They seem to think the 12th gives Johnson enough time to break his word and bring back the deal.
    There has to be a way, even not trusting him, to assure themselves he cannot do that.

    I'm sorry, but arguing over a day or two is just dumb, especially when the deal wont pass when an election is due.

    I dont but that's the real reason, it's just a pissing contest to see who gets their date .
  • I suppose the SNP and LDs could table an amendment for the 9th but does it really matter if the PM isn't bringing back the WAIB?
  • geoffw said:

    Is it still possible to crash out on Halloween?

    (asking for a friend)

    No.
  • I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    I agree and it is far from predictable

    Now knowing Boris is in it for himself, and he fails to win a majority so Jo Swinson says she will support him on a c & s in exchange for a referendum, what bets on him agreeing

    I would not be surprised if he did
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AndyJS said:

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    Wilson was a moderate.
    In hindsight - not necessarily how he was seen at the time....Mr "the pound in your pocket"....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting it was the LibDems who knew where was the loophole in the FTPA

    As a possible junior coalition partner next time around - and having been learned last time around that the senior partner is not to be trusted - they probably thought it worth studying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    nico67 said:

    What happens to the Tory rebels if there’s an election.

    Will they get the whip restored?

    Some of them I'd bet .
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited October 2019

    I suppose the SNP and LDs could table an amendment for the 9th but does it really matter if the PM isn't bringing back the WAIB?
    Depends if you trust Johnson and also trust corbyn, if the WAIB did come back to allow his leaver MPs to vote for it giving him a free run on the other issues and being able to forget brexit.
  • I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    That would be hilarious and deserved.
    How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.

    Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Imagine being a non anorak - one day 12th December rejected, the next day agreed . The optics of that alone are one reason I think they might say no, even though the procedure used is different.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The EU written procedure to confirm the extension should be finalized by 6 pm today .

  • IanB2 said:

    Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”

    No sympathy for him. Many of the 21 voted for the programme motion, he did not knowing that he would not regain the whip

    I wonder if all the mps who rebelled against their whips ever thought for a minute they would have to face the consequences so quickly
    Of course they did. Odds from the very start of Johnson's Premiership have been on an early election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    From the various opposition comments (including those of the SNP), it sounds mildly unlikely.
    Had it been the 9th, it would have passed with a large majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited October 2019
    On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.

    If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
  • geoffw said:

    Is it still possible to crash out on Halloween?

    (asking for a friend)

    No.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Morning all.

    Does anyone have the timings for the HoC day?

    The Government Business motion and programme are proposing to take all Commons stages of the early election bill today in a 6 hour block replacing all previous business. But we won't know exactly when it will start until we know what if any statements and UQs there are. And the 6 hour timetable is reliant on the programme passing.

    Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.

    The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
    Thanks for this.

    I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188947840262955008?s=20
    What silliness. All about not appearing to 'win' over the date, with fig leafs for other reasons.
    There is a genuine argument about the 9th vs. the 12th, as Johnson has made clear his wish to bring back the WA for another vote prior to a GE. The rest is just arguing for the sake of it.
    It wouldn't pass, what matter if he brought it back?
  • nichomar said:

    I suppose the SNP and LDs could table an amendment for the 9th but does it really matter if the PM isn't bringing back the WAIB?
    Depends if you trust Johnson
    Yes. He wouldn't want to start an election campaign with a clear and obvious lie. The second this bill passes we are in an election campaign, if he brings back the WAIB having promised 12 hours earlier not to do so then he woud be castigated for lying on something that was entirely in his control - and it still wouldn't pass.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    Wilson was a moderate.
    Not by today's standards he wasn't, unless you think the Wilson governments had nothing to with abolishing capital punishment and legalising abortion, with sex equality, lowering the voting age, and certainly not nationalising half of British industry. Something something Overton window. Cont p94.
    By the standards of the day he was.
  • geoffw said:

    Is it still possible to crash out on Halloween?

    (asking for a friend)

    No - the extension has been formally accepted by the PM so A50 is extended to 31st January
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275

    AndyJS said:

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    Wilson was a moderate.
    Not by today's standards he wasn't, unless you think the Wilson governments had nothing to with abolishing capital punishment and legalising abortion, with sex equality, lowering the voting age, and certainly not nationalising half of British industry. Something something Overton window. Cont p94.
    Yes Callaghan was a moderate, as was Healey, Wilson less so but Wilson was certainly more moderate than Foot and Benn were and Corbyn is
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    I do worry that the pushing through legislation in a day tactic might become a trend rather than very rare occurrence. Depending how pliant the party and numbers in the lords, there could be high temptation in future
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    That would be hilarious and deserved.
    How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.

    Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
    A differently hung Parliament is not impossible.
    The Lib Dems holding the balance of power would make a change of leadership of at least one of the main parties almost inevitable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Nigelb said:

    From the various opposition comments (including those of the SNP), it sounds mildly unlikely.
    Had it been the 9th, it would have passed with a large majority.
    Indeed. The mystery here is why Bozo didn't simply back the SNP/LD proposal for the 9th. A filibuster in the Lords seemed most unlikely, on a matter concerning a GE over which the Lords has no right to meddle.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    There are 54 SNP and LD MPs, although only 21 of them are required to vote for the bill today since the government had 299 votes yesterday.

    What is the DUP's position? Since the Government has committed to not proceeding with the WAB should today's motion pass, could they come back onside for the Government? (I am assuming that they weren't included in the total of 299 votes yesterday.)
    Don't know. Yesterday they abstained I think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    Agree - this feels a lot like 1974.

    PM who is clearly not in control of events asking the electorate "who's in charge?' - severe risk he gets the same answer as Heath.
    No it does not, that was 2017 and it is MPs refusing to respect democracy Boris is taking on not the unions. Boris does not have a majority as Heath did in 1974 and May did in 2017.

    May was Heath, Boris is Thatcher, Corbyn Foot, this election will be more 1983 than 1974
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    nico67 said:

    The EU written procedure to confirm the extension should be finalized by 6 pm today .

    And a vote in the Commons isn't needed, after May's government cunningly amended Cooper/Letwin in the Lords.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I have a bad feeling about an early election in December.

    I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

    That would be hilarious and deserved.
    How could we get an even more hung Parliament than the one we currently have? It doesn't seem numerically possible to me.

    Tories currently have 288. If on Friday 13th [anyone notice that yet?] we see they still have 288 then I don't think Boris will be returning to the Palace to kiss the Queen's hand again.
    There we get into some magical alchemy. Just because Boris Johnson does not command the confidence of the Commons doesn't mean that anyone else does. The Lib Dems and the SNP are not going to allow a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn to survive for any length of time. There is no agreement among those who Leavers wrongly label Remainers about what should be done next. Better yet, there would be a whole new intake, none of whose views anyone would yet really know. Parliament really would be more hung than now if the Conservatives have anything like 288 seats after the next election.
  • HYUFD said:

    On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.

    If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal

    Where's your landslide gone then
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Blackford on Sky jusy now wants the election and hopes for the 9th but not rejecting the 12th. Also accepts votes for 16s not practical on this timetable

    Election in December is coming - what are labour going to do. They have lost the initiative comprehensively and are being seen to be dragged to the ballot boxes kicking and screaming

    How on earth have labour got into this mess of it's own making

    It's worth noting that back in September, polling showed that those intending to vote Labour backed an early general election by a margin of two to one, no different from the average across all parties. It can't be doing Labour any good to be so obviously facing in the opposite direction to the opinions of those whose support it is courting.
This discussion has been closed.