You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Sell Lib Dems?
They are 110-160 (there's a spread!) as it stands, that's probably about right.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
Winter begins on 21 Dec and ends on 21 March.
winter is a commonly used word, and has been around for longer than the laws of physics. like brexit, it means what people want it to mean. For me, december is a winter month, I'm not sure which laws of physics this infringes.
see also "midwinter" which means "the middle of winter" = 21st/22nd december
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
Instinctively I agree with this, but I am concerned that with the DUP possibly opposing everything including extension, there is a chance that a hung parliament can lead to no deal, which neither Tory nor Labour governments would.
I fear that Boris with a large majority will lead to a No Deal and no FTA with the EU either. The No Dealers have only reluctantly agreed to Boris's deal because they feared getting no Brexit otherwise. With a large majority I fear they will revert to what they really want.
No chance. A large majority that owe their seats to Boris will not have to rely on the Spartans. I actually think the bigger the Tory majority the more room Boris has to move bacl to the centre in tye FTA.
The (erroneous) thinking in 2017 was that the larger May's majority* the softer the Brexit she would pursue. Suffice to say that that thinking was wholly wrong. I think it is the same here, the larger the majority, the harsher the outcome.
The last free and fair election? What is he on about?
I assume the tactics of voter suppression (the need for ID under Johnson, and the changing of signing up to vote under Cameron) that are being used by successive Conservative governments.
Considering that in person voter fraud is basically nil, and postal voting will never be something you can sort with just "more ID", it is obviously just about making it harder for some people to vote.
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
Probably.
It seems recently the polls have alternated error. Hopefully the pattern continues
Pre-2010: Underestimated Labour Pre-2015: Underestimated Tories Pre-2017: Understimated Labour Pre-2019: ???
Under-estimated TIG. Soubry becoming Prime Minister after Johnson was the turn up that nobody could foresee
Does anyone know whether Bercow will be standing in Buckingham again? Because if not it means there won't be a Speaker after the election and the Father / Mother of the House will have to direct proceedings.
The last free and fair election? What is he on about?
I assume the tactics of voter suppression (the need for ID under Johnson, and the changing of signing up to vote under Cameron) that are being used by successive Conservative governments.
Considering that in person voter fraud is basically nil, and postal voting will never be something you can sort with just "more ID", it is obviously just about making it harder for some people to vote.
Ironic given that the poster above you was a victim of voter fraud.
If BBC comments are anything to go by it's a Tory landslide. There definitely seem to be less regular people willing to stick up for Labour than there were 2 years ago. But will they be willing to hold their nose and carry on their family tradition of ticking the Lab box?
Can we please stick to the 12th for the election? I'm busy both the weekend before and the weekend after the election, so the Thursday gives me the best chance of having some fun with my new yellow peril friends and some fun with Mr Heineken
If BBC comments are anything to go by it's a Tory landslide. There definitely seem to be less regular people willing to stick up for Labour than there were 2 years ago. But will they be willing to hold their nose and carry on their family tradition of ticking the Lab box?
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
Where's your landslide gone then
Still there with Yougov and Opinium
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
Except it does, because while the Tories are down 7%, Labour are down 15%+.....
And the difference in representation between FPTP and PR systems is not so great when under PR you exclude all parties getting under 5% from getting MPs.
The difference between FPTP and PR would be enough to ensure Bozo would not have an overall majority, or indeed a majority at all.
Obviously people who want a government with a majority that is artificially created by the voting system will be happy with our unrepresentative system but at least have the decency to admit it is not really fair or democratic.
It is both fair and democratic.
Every single constituency gets 1 MP. That is fair, everyone is treated the same.
Every MP is the most popular in their constituency. That is both fair and democratic.
Are you suggesting that it would be better if people who were not the most popular in their constituency gets seats? How is that more democratic or more fair than ensuring every single MP has a direct mandate from being the most popular?
More importantly, different constituencies have different concerns
In a PR system you would likely end up with identikit politicians with a London / big city focus (because that is where more votes are)
But an ex mining constituency in Nottinghamshire, for example, may have different issues that require a different representative
Yet the best bet on here, apparently, is backing the huge odds on that The Brexit Party behave exactly the same electorally as UKIP, in a completely different scenario
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
I think anything could happen during this campaign. Well, not anything, but a lot of unexpected things.
That’s not the traditional politicalbetting approach.
I think standard procedure is for all of us to outline various credible campaign events that lead to differing outcomes, so at least one of us can look clever after the results.
This is an election where Conservatives will storm to victory / Labour will surge like they did in 2017 / Lib Dems will make a huge breakthrough in swathes of the UK (delete as applicable).
You see, the MSM and most on here grossly underestimate Johnson / Corbyn / Swinson (delete as applicable) and do so at their peril / perfectly correctly (delete as applicable).
Johnson is a great campaigner / bumbling fool (delete as applicable) who will take the country by storm / come a cropper on a daily basis (delete as applicable). Whilst the more people see of Corbyn, the more they like him / hate him (delete as applicable). As for Swinson, well, Lib Dems will quickly realise they should've opted for Ed Davey / she's a better leader than Gladstone ever was (delete as applicable).
Lib Dems warning if Labour gerrymandering amendments passes the GE might be not be possible in December. So hold on to your betting slips for 2020 just in case.
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
I think anything could happen during this campaign. Well, not anything, but a lot of unexpected things.
That’s not the traditional politicalbetting approach.
I think standard procedure is for all of us to outline various credible campaign events that lead to differing outcomes, so at least one of us can look clever after the results.
The HY strategy is to predict with absolute certainty a single outcome then, when proved wrong, deny point blank that he ever made the prediction despite his views being a matter of record.
If BBC comments are anything to go by it's a Tory landslide. There definitely seem to be less regular people willing to stick up for Labour than there were 2 years ago. But will they be willing to hold their nose and carry on their family tradition of ticking the Lab box?
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Sell Lib Dems?
They are 110-160 (there's a spread!) as it stands, that's probably about right.
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
Except it does, because while the Tories are down 7%, Labour are down 15%+.....
And the difference in representation between FPTP and PR systems is not so great when under PR you exclude all parties getting under 5% from getting MPs.
The difference between FPTP and PR would be enough to ensure Bozo would not have an overall majority, or indeed a majority at all.
Obviously people who want a government with a majority that is artificially created by the voting system will be happy with our unrepresentative system but at least have the decency to admit it is not really fair or democratic.
It is both fair and democratic.
Every single constituency gets 1 MP. That is fair, everyone is treated the same.
Every MP is the most popular in their constituency. That is both fair and democratic.
Are you suggesting that it would be better if people who were not the most popular in their constituency gets seats? How is that more democratic or more fair than ensuring every single MP has a direct mandate from being the most popular?
More importantly, different constituencies have different concerns
In a PR system you would likely end up with identikit politicians with a London / big city focus (because that is where more votes are)
But an ex mining constituency in Nottinghamshire, for example, may have different issues that require a different representative
I mean, you could do something similar to the EU elections; large areas with a list system and PR. Or a mixed system like Germany.
There are lots of better ways to do this than FPTP.
It is easy to say that this election is impossible to call but it seems to me that is the reality. There are just too many imponderables. I suspect that there will be a fairly small number of important influencers. Firstly, can the Tories sell Johnson's deal. When Brexit was just a dream the leavers found selling it easy because they could make it all things to all people, Now we have a deal that is not so true. We know what Brexit is and many will not like it. That I suspect makes things more difficult for the government. Secondly. will the public swallow the normal Tory scare tactics of vote for us or you get the mad red man. If the narrative starts to gain traction that the beneficiaries of disillusioned votes are the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party that is a real problem for the Tories. I wonder if we could see Johnson doing a Thatcher and propping up the Labour party. The death of the labour party would be catastrophic for the Tories because it is such a powerful scare tactic to some, particularly with Corbyn as leader. But if it becomes apparent early on that labour will not get a majority you have to wonder if people will fall for it. Finally I wonder if either Swinson or Farage could actually capture the countries mood with their radical agendas. Fact is that the only way to end the chaos immediately is to revoke, even if we leave with Johnsons deal we still have years of toxic negotiations to go. Will that strike a cord? Will Farage run a campaign of 'we are the only true party of Brexit' and will that hit home? Its going to be fun and while in the end I suspect the status quo will not look that different after the election it is just possible that this will be the most explosively different election ever.
It is amazing to think he was Newsnight reporter for so many year.
Not really. Have you watched Newsnight?
Newsnight is far worse today than in Mason's day. He has either completely lost his mind or it was one hell of an act he put on every night to sound vaguely reasonable rather than down with the capitalist pigs, break the system, last chance of free and fair election bollocks he spouts now.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. I kept waiting for them to appear, and they never did. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
I don't think they'll repeat any of those mistakes, except for the Phil Hammond one obv. Javid won't be as convincing (and in any case they've thrown away much of their advantage on sound economics).
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Sell Lib Dems?
They are 110-160 (there's a spread!) as it stands, that's probably about right.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
Boris will go full on, all-out attack against Corbyn. "He wants to spend billions on nationalising the railways. I want to send billions on the NHS. You must decide - which gives YOU the better value for money?"
NHS Top Trumps railways every time.
Easy to counter that. "The Tories want to spend millions on US drug companies. We will spend millions on helping you."
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
Thought you were smarter than buying that line.
Farage is the guy who would sell out the NHS.
Not in the popular imagination he's not. Same with the Cons and defence. Cons could cut our entire armed services leaving only a mini metro-mounted airgun and they would still be perceived as the party which protects our armed forces and sound on defence.
I have heard quite a few people who are not at all natural Corbynistas talk very approvingly of rail nationalisation. You (@MarqueeMark) underestimate I think the anger people feel at being ripped off - by rail companies, banks, energy companies etc - and the sense that the Tories are on their side. The Tories cosying up to Trump and being less than honest about what a GB/US FTA would mean feeds into that.
Ah. Ok. Just not on the news. It’s just that I think his activity (or lack of it) and the amount of airtime he’s given will make a difference (to state the obvious).
Anyone bloody seething this morning at the state of our politicians? This tweet sums up my feelings. I have seen some crap from MPs over the years, but this arguing over the date of a GE that "saves face" is a new low.
I am starting to come round to the view that we need to sweep the whole bloody lot of them away, which is most unlike me.
Absolutely not. I think the problem the two biggest parties, which gave too much power to their members, which in turn brought about a crazier members > crazier leader -> crazier members spiral of crazy.
Combine this with FPTP and it has the potential to be totally catastrophic, and long-standing parliamentarians are doing an excellent job of preventing everything going to shit, under extremely difficult circumstances.
Agreed. I think the precedent that Johnson is creating in forcing out so many MPs from his party in order to use FPTP to replace them with ideologically narrower lobby fodder is exceptionally dangerous for our politics.
It's not a problem with PR, where multiple different parties can compete fairly. Nor is it a risk in the US where the Primary system takes the control over selection away from a party leadership. In Britain it creates a real risk of narrowing the debate in the Commons and leaving people unrepresented.
You can just about make the case for FPTP in the UK with broad tent parties. Not otherwise.
I have a lot of sympathy for Boris over the whip suspension.
It was the governments flagship policy. He made the consequences clear up front.
The 21 individuals rebelled in full knowledge of the consequences (they thought they could get away with it like they/others had under May).
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
Of course. Leavers absolutely hate him, because he tells inconvenient truths. However, the irrational hatred of him is new, it didn't apply in 2016 to anything like the same extent.
Just returned from Town and the news that labour back the election confirming the end of this bankrupt and useless Parliament and it is just such a relief as it feels as if this is the moment things change
Boris wins a majority and we leave the EU on the 31st January or even the 1st January
In a hung Parliament a referendum will take place in Summer 2020
The idiotically named peoples vote dies with this Parliament
I would also expect this may seen the end of Corbyn as leader of the labour party in the early new year
I am really pleased that the new Parliament will be a result of the people speaking and will have democratic legitimacy
More importantly, different constituencies have different concerns
In a PR system you would likely end up with identikit politicians with a London / big city focus (because that is where more votes are)
But an ex mining constituency in Nottinghamshire, for example, may have different issues that require a different representative
Indeed.
If every constituency in the country had the same concerns and voted the same way then the election winner would get 650 seats and the opposition would get 0.
Under FPTP the choice belongs to local voters and no seat is ever truly "safe" even if people choose to vote the same way time and again that is their choice and there is absolutely nothing to stop them changing their minds. Just ask Scottish Labour.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Sell Lib Dems?
They are 110-160 (there's a spread!) as it stands, that's probably about right.
Yet the best bet on here, apparently, is backing the huge odds on that The Brexit Party behave exactly the same electorally as UKIP, in a completely different scenario
I am sure their fresh new leader won’t be constrained by his track record.
If I were advising Boris I'd tell him to get the message out early that the election is very wide open and an opportunity for both sides to persuade the public. I'd advise him to emphasise that he has taken a huge personal risk to break the deadlock.
The media love a 'comeback' narrative and one of the grave mistakes May made was letting the first two weeks of her GE campaign follow a landslide narrative. When the narrative turned mid-GE backing the outsider became more fashionable and in the public's minds a vote for Corbyn became risk-free.
Boris needs to approach this as a genuine two-horse race and drive home the reality that a small majority is what the country needs. I think the closer he can paint the race the better his chances of a majority are.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
You also don't know what the actual conversation was, or whether the people twittering had the wrong carriage or whatever.
Yet the best bet on here, apparently, is backing the huge odds on that The Brexit Party behave exactly the same electorally as UKIP, in a completely different scenario
The BXP are worse than UKIP in their prime.
UKIP in their prime were the only party backing Brexit. Now the Tories are backing Brexit and the only party that can achieve Brexit.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
You also don't know what the actual conversation was, or whether the people twittering had the wrong carriage or whatever.
Would the conductor have given them a seat in first had they simply had the wrong carriage?
I think that's belatedly smart by Labour. As Lewis Goodall points out anyway, four days into the campaign literally no one will remember this week's arguing about the date or how we got there.
12/12 is incredibly close to Christmas though. Blimey.
Can you plausibly open parliament before Christmas or is all of December a write off?
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
You also don't know what the actual conversation was, or whether the people twittering had the wrong carriage or whatever.
This story has been around for long enough with enough media coverage that the situation appears straightforward. It will be interesting to see what happens when the couple are recognised, since I expect they are currently unaware of their expanding renown.
If I were advising Boris I'd tell him to get the message out early that the election is very wide open and an opportunity for both sides to persuade the public. I'd advise him to emphasise that he has taken a huge personal risk to break the deadlock.
The media love a 'comeback' narrative and one of the grave mistakes May made was letting the first two weeks of her GE campaign follow a landslide narrative. When the narrative turned mid-GE backing the outsider became more fashionable and in the public's minds a vote for Corbyn became risk-free.
Boris needs to approach this as a genuine two-horse race and drive home the reality that a small majority is what the country needs. I think the closer he can paint the race the better his chances of a majority are.
I think he’ll almost try and campaign from opposition as the change candidate - “they won’t let me do all these wonderful things”. And then, as you say, emphasise the power of “them” and that “they” may win and take it all way/ cynical but effective.
Anyone betting against the Brexit party winning seats in numbers should keep a close eye on the Welsh valleys. If they are to start picking up seats in numbers, those are among the first that will fall to them.
The priority for the LDs is to overtake Labour during the first half of campaign, because then they could have a go at challenging the Tories in the second half.
Yet the best bet on here, apparently, is backing the huge odds on that The Brexit Party behave exactly the same electorally as UKIP, in a completely different scenario
I am sure their fresh new leader won’t be constrained by his track record.
He won't be! It's embarrassing for a supposed betting discussion to roll out that old trope, given that on 5 of the 7 occasions he was probably 100/1 to win.
The only time Farage had a realistic chance of winning a seat, Conservatives had to resort to electoral criminality to beat him
"Sentencing Little, the judge Mr Justice Edis accused Conservative party headquarters of “a culture of convenient self-deception” and “inadequate supervision” which allowed Little to break the law.
“Mrs Little acted dishonestly by preparing [election] returns she knew were not completed nor accurate,” he said. She has received a nine-month suspended sentence and fined £5,000.
Edis said Little falsified documents then presented them to Mackinlay and his election agent Nathan Gray for signing, which “they did so in good faith not knowing what she had done”."
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
There are many definitions of the seasons and there is one that makes December 9-12th in Autumn, but most do not. So I think you should say "arguably" rather than "technically".
Though most of the campaign will happen in November, and many postal ballots will be cast before the date of the election itself, so there are many dimensions to such a designation.
MarqueeMark said: "Good reason for Tories not to vote for him...."
Stocky said: "That`s interesting - do you think that tactical voting like this may produce a surprise choice for Speaker? I had Hoyle as nailed on."
"Absolutely......"
Eleanor Laing`s been taking money this morning. This who you have in mind ?????
Works for me....
Laing was an @HYUFD tip iirc. Anyway, I now need to take the profit or let it ride. Or wait till I have time away from work to reassess all the runners and riders. And it is not even the busiest day for works Christmas parties!
Eleanor Laing now generally 4/1 against for next Speaker -- Paddy went 14/1 just yesterday.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Sell Lib Dems?
They are 110-160 (there's a spread!) as it stands, that's probably about right.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
IMO it's best not to make judgements in these cases unless you're actually there and know the full details. We don't know whether the old people were suffering from an illness or something like that, for example.
Irrelevant, really.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
You also don't know what the actual conversation was, or whether the people twittering had the wrong carriage or whatever.
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
I don't - genuinely don't - know what you're struggling with here.
Just returned from Town and the news that labour back the election confirming the end of this bankrupt and useless Parliament and it is just such a relief as it feels as if this is the moment things change
Boris wins a majority and we leave the EU on the 31st January or even the 1st January
In a hung Parliament a referendum will take place in Summer 2020
The idiotically named peoples vote dies with this Parliament
I would also expect this may seen the end of Corbyn as leader of the labour party in the early new year
I am really pleased that the new Parliament will be a result of the people speaking and will have democratic legitimacy
MarqueeMark said: "Good reason for Tories not to vote for him...."
Stocky said: "That`s interesting - do you think that tactical voting like this may produce a surprise choice for Speaker? I had Hoyle as nailed on."
"Absolutely......"
Eleanor Laing`s been taking money this morning. This who you have in mind ?????
Works for me....
Laing was an @HYUFD tip iirc. Anyway, I now need to take the profit or let it ride. Or wait till I have time away from work to reassess all the runners and riders. And it is not even the busiest day for works Christmas parties!
Eleanor Laing now generally 4/1 against for next Speaker -- Paddy went 14/1 just yesterday.
Hoyle 1/2 Laing 4/1 Harman 4/1 Bryant 16/1
Laing & Harman are 7/2 on Betfair so ...
Laing is an excellent tip, I expect they wont elect until an election and if there is a Tory majority it will be Laing. 4/1 is obviously far better odds than evens on a Tory majority. Feel sorry for Hoyle as he's a very good deputy.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
If I were advising Boris I'd tell him to get the message out early that the election is very wide open and an opportunity for both sides to persuade the public. I'd advise him to emphasise that he has taken a huge personal risk to break the deadlock.
The media love a 'comeback' narrative and one of the grave mistakes May made was letting the first two weeks of her GE campaign follow a landslide narrative. When the narrative turned mid-GE backing the outsider became more fashionable and in the public's minds a vote for Corbyn became risk-free.
Boris needs to approach this as a genuine two-horse race and drive home the reality that a small majority is what the country needs. I think the closer he can paint the race the better his chances of a majority are.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
There are many definitions of the seasons and there is one that makes December 9-12th in Autumn, but most do not. So I think you should say "arguably" rather than "technically".
Though most of the campaign will happen in November, and many postal ballots will be cast before the date of the election itself, so there are many dimensions to such a designation.
It was a joke based on Mysticrose using technically before me, didn't realise it'd start such a debate!
Just returned from Town and the news that labour back the election confirming the end of this bankrupt and useless Parliament and it is just such a relief as it feels as if this is the moment things change
Boris wins a majority and we leave the EU on the 31st January or even the 1st January
In a hung Parliament a referendum will take place in Summer 2020
The idiotically named peoples vote dies with this Parliament
I would also expect this may seen the end of Corbyn as leader of the labour party in the early new year
I am really pleased that the new Parliament will be a result of the people speaking and will have democratic legitimacy
And I am very laid back about the outcome
IMO they made a mistake using that name.
Yes. At one point a few weeks ago they were using the much better 'confirmatory referendum', but that seems to have gone away.
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
Just returned from Town and the news that labour back the election confirming the end of this bankrupt and useless Parliament and it is just such a relief as it feels as if this is the moment things change...
It is the successive governments you have supported which have been bankrupt and useless.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
Comments
How many tory leaders has he seen off by now? I've lost count.
Con largest party. With teeny tiny majority (sub-10).
see also "midwinter" which means "the middle of winter" = 21st/22nd december
*ha haha hahahahaha hahahahahahahahahaha
Considering that in person voter fraud is basically nil, and postal voting will never be something you can sort with just "more ID", it is obviously just about making it harder for some people to vote.
EDIT: Did Keir Starmer not show up, or is he just out of shot?
In a PR system you would likely end up with identikit politicians with a London / big city focus (because that is where more votes are)
But an ex mining constituency in Nottinghamshire, for example, may have different issues that require a different representative
You see, the MSM and most on here grossly underestimate Johnson / Corbyn / Swinson (delete as applicable) and do so at their peril / perfectly correctly (delete as applicable).
Johnson is a great campaigner / bumbling fool (delete as applicable) who will take the country by storm / come a cropper on a daily basis (delete as applicable). Whilst the more people see of Corbyn, the more they like him / hate him (delete as applicable). As for Swinson, well, Lib Dems will quickly realise they should've opted for Ed Davey / she's a better leader than Gladstone ever was (delete as applicable).
Labour really are a shambles
Labour have slumped when their team have had the motivation of a dead camel (e.g. 1983, 2010, 2015).
Corbyn and the left are fired up for this. They really hate Johnson and his team and all they stand for.
It's going to be interesting.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1189146711937241090?s=20
There are lots of better ways to do this than FPTP.
Boris is trying to game the split to get a Tory majority, but it’s almost as likely the split pincers his game and deprives him of one.
I don't think they'll repeat any of those mistakes, except for the Phil Hammond one obv. Javid won't be as convincing (and in any case they've thrown away much of their advantage on sound economics).
https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1189144490059194368
Use the passive voice and we may have a different answer.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1188936379570511873
One set of people booked a seat. The other didn't.
What did fail was basic politeness.
It was the governments flagship policy. He made the consequences clear up front.
The 21 individuals rebelled in full knowledge of the consequences (they thought they could get away with it like they/others had under May).
Actions have consequences as I tell my daughter
Boris wins a majority and we leave the EU on the 31st January or even the 1st January
In a hung Parliament a referendum will take place in Summer 2020
The idiotically named peoples vote dies with this Parliament
I would also expect this may seen the end of Corbyn as leader of the labour party in the early new year
I am really pleased that the new Parliament will be a result of the people speaking and will have democratic legitimacy
And I am very laid back about the outcome
If every constituency in the country had the same concerns and voted the same way then the election winner would get 650 seats and the opposition would get 0.
Under FPTP the choice belongs to local voters and no seat is ever truly "safe" even if people choose to vote the same way time and again that is their choice and there is absolutely nothing to stop them changing their minds. Just ask Scottish Labour.
The media love a 'comeback' narrative and one of the grave mistakes May made was letting the first two weeks of her GE campaign follow a landslide narrative. When the narrative turned mid-GE backing the outsider became more fashionable and in the public's minds a vote for Corbyn became risk-free.
Boris needs to approach this as a genuine two-horse race and drive home the reality that a small majority is what the country needs. I think the closer he can paint the race the better his chances of a majority are.
UKIP in their prime were the only party backing Brexit. Now the Tories are backing Brexit and the only party that can achieve Brexit.
That would be in keeping with everything that has gone before......
The only time Farage had a realistic chance of winning a seat, Conservatives had to resort to electoral criminality to beat him
"Sentencing Little, the judge Mr Justice Edis accused Conservative party headquarters of “a culture of convenient self-deception” and “inadequate supervision” which allowed Little to break the law.
“Mrs Little acted dishonestly by preparing [election] returns she knew were not completed nor accurate,” he said. She has received a nine-month suspended sentence and fined £5,000.
Edis said Little falsified documents then presented them to Mackinlay and his election agent Nathan Gray for signing, which “they did so in good faith not knowing what she had done”."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/craig-mackinlay-tory-mp-cleared-breaking-2015-general-election-expenses-rules
Though most of the campaign will happen in November, and many postal ballots will be cast before the date of the election itself, so there are many dimensions to such a designation.
Hoyle 1/2
Laing 4/1
Harman 4/1
Bryant 16/1
Laing & Harman are 7/2 on Betfair so ...
I don't - genuinely don't - know what you're struggling with here.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FE9C/production/_109408156_byelaws.jpg
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.