Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
Au contraire. A) Fridays are unpopular because that’s employees’ own time b) the final week is too late and many take those days off to use up holiday and/or do Christmas shopping.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
You are completely right and I don’t know why anyone’s arguing with you.
Will be fun this afternoon when it starts to dawn on events organisers...
Why? Vote in the morning. Get hammered at the works party in the evening. Stagger home to watch the results come in. What’s not to like?
Well of course, however many will put off voting in the morning then fail to make it home in the evening. That is 100% certain to be a scenario played out many times over.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
I think that is likely for many mps
There must be a good market for a twitter/facebook client that will filter out abuse. Not just MPs (and Meghan) but anyone in the public eye.
Bernard Ingham lamented that John Major's defensiveness was caused by his insistence on reading the papers, whereas Mrs Thatcher just read the suitably filtered press round-up.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
The sooner he gets out on the doorstep telling all those *diehard* remainers to f**** off and vote LibDem, the better....
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
Being an MP is tough. You cant go back on what got you elected in the way she did and not expect kickback from the voters. The nastiness, in my opinion, is her deception.
An MP should be able to exercise their judgment, rightly or wrongly, consistently or inconsistently without expecting threats of rape and murder.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
Boris will be offering tax cuts and spending for hospitals and the police and schools and above all to get Brexit done.
Boris will be Santa to May's Cruella Da Vil
Plus Boris will be Santa to Corbyn's Grinch.
Boris is the embodiment of can-do, up-beat Britain-is-Great optimism. Corbyn? Not so much....
It looks like Cummings has already moved to neuter rail as an issue.
Has Cummings ever run a party political campaign before? Playing the NHS card when you want people to vote Tory is very different to playing the NHS card when you want people to vote Leave.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
The astronomical definition, as such, exists only because it was easy for stone age society to measure with stone circles, but it didn't make much sense in its own terms. It would make more sense if the winter astronomical season had the winter solstice in the middle of the winter season. Then you'd have one dark season, one light season and two transition seasons.
But then spring would be colder than winter, or very close.
I’m an advocate of thermal seasons - which would run 10 Dec to 10 March and so on. The inaccurately named “meteorological season” has no basis in science and is simply a product of statistical convenience because it uses whole months of the year.
There's nothing wrong with statistical convenience, particularly when your definition of a thermal season is only valid for a small geographical area.
You're the one arguing for a single definition of the seasons and now you've introduced a new one.
I'd argue that you can use many definitions of the seasons depending on your purpose and it would be absurd to insist that your favourite definition was the One True Definition Of The Seasons.
I think there are about seven eight definitions that have some merit and use, and I've been meaning to define my own.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
12 Dec, voters go to work. Works Christmas party. Get smashed. Don’t make it home in time to vote. That will 100% be a scenario played out across the country.
12 Dec will be the most popular night of the year for works Christmas parties.
I thought the most popular was the last Friday before Christmas? 12th seems a bit early!
Au contraire. A) Fridays are unpopular because that’s employees’ own time b) the final week is too late and many take those days off to use up holiday and/or do Christmas shopping.
12 Dec will be the most popular day for works parties.
You are completely right and I don’t know why anyone’s arguing with you.
Will be fun this afternoon when it starts to dawn on events organisers...
Think of the poor civil servants. They can have the party but they can’t now have Friday off with a hangover.
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
Being an MP is tough. You cant go back on what got you elected in the way she did and not expect kickback from the voters. The nastiness, in my opinion, is her deception.
An MP should be able to exercise their judgment, rightly or wrongly, consistently or inconsistently without expecting threats of rape and murder.
Yes, they should will not be an MP for long if they do so.
I dont actually think that they should be allowed to do a U-Turn on what got them elected and defect to a party with the opposite policy without holding a by election.
Listening to a labour party activist they are going to be on the streets, knocking on doors, selling their message but he seems to be unaware that a december election changes the normal process especially with dark nights (4.00pm ish), prospect of bad weather, and a public that will hide behind the doors or slam them shut
It will be interesting to see if this election is won on social media and through the broadcast media rather than more traditional canvassing etc
From Guido: "Reports that after a lively meeting with Roland Rudd this morning People’s Vote staffers have now voted no confidence in him and their new chief executive Patrick Heneghan."
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It is not a low point it is a dishonest lie.
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
Being an MP is tough. You cant go back on what got you elected in the way she did and not expect kickback from the voters. The nastiness, in my opinion, is her deception.
An MP should be able to exercise their judgment, rightly or wrongly, consistently or inconsistently without expecting threats of rape and murder.
Yes, they should will not be an MP for long if they do so.
I dont actually think that they should be allowed to do a U-Turn on what got them elected and defect to a party with the opposite policy without holding a by election.
Its a view, many will agree, others will not. Argue for it. Dont excuse those who threaten, nearly always against women, when someone goes against their view, by saying they should expect threats and intimidation if they choose to do x or y.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
If Hammond was Tory leader yes Corbyn might become PM
They might have done Alastair Campbell the favour of extending the y-axis down a bit further in that graph?
I’m fascinated by Blunkett’s “fame” scores after so long (I always liked him I would just assume many would have forgotten).
I once had dinner sitting next to Blunkett, with his dog nuzzling my leg. He was a genuinely nice and decent guy, and we had a great conversation. But he was very partisan Labour and didn’t have that ability that many top level politicians have to put themselves above the party contest when off duty.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It is not a low point it is a dishonest lie.
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
My money is on her seat being a LibDem gain (edit/ even without Heidi, who would have been a shoo-in). If only there were some way to bet on it.
Listening to a labour party activist they are going to be on the streets, knocking on doors, selling their message but he seems to be unaware that a december election changes the normal process especially with dark nights (4.00pm ish), prospect of bad weather, and a public that will hide behind the doors or slam them shut
It will be interesting to see if this election is won on social media and through the broadcast media rather than more traditional canvassing etc
I doubt it. Electoral machines win elections. The ground game is key. I actually wonder how the Tories are going to find ground troops to canvass what have been safe Labour seats in the dark. I would not go to unfamilar places, possibly rough/violent as a Tory after a decade of austerity even if i was paid....
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It is not a low point it is a dishonest lie.
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
If threatening rape and murder of our MPs is not a low point what is?
When did decency stop being a thing? Just because you dont like their politics it shouldnt stop some empathy with the problem women MPs are facing and why many feel it is not worth it.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes
The new dimension of the coming GE is that for the first time the LibDems might be able to deploy serious amounts of money to their campaign.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
I understand it perfectly. Travelling by train means being locked up in a steel tube with people who are at best loud, smelly and annoying, and at worst are drunk, high, offensive and violent. Reserving a seat is a waste of time. It is not a pleasant Portillo journey conversing with the interesting and eccentric, it is a Hobbesian war of all against all. I hate, hate, hate trains.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the LDs could win it.
Yes, it's an intriguing 3-way fight, but how revealing that HYUFD (one of the most fanatically pro-Conservative posters ever to grace this Site) didn't even suggest it as a potential Con gain.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
The Potteries will be the sort of area where the Tories could do very well: two seats in Stoke on Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme, plus adjacent Crewe and Nantwich where the Labour majority is 48.
I think the first week will be vital. If Farage and the Brexit Party do not develop momentum in the first week it is done, Con majority nailed on.
Farage needs to be primed to be all over the media screaming betrayal at every oppertunity.
He can scream all he wants. It only gets traction if his arguments are compelling. If your read the Brexit Party's complaints about the Boris deal, it is 90% the transition period, which most Brexit supporters will shrug off as its transitional.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
If Hammond was Tory leader yes Corbyn might become PM
Some interesting things in that chart:
* Johnson is shown as a popular Remain supporter - presumably this is Alan, not Boris? * Corbyn is shown as more popular than Sturgeon, Ed Miliband and Cameron * Burnham and Blunkett are the most popular well-known Labour people. In general Burnham's move to Mayor has been very good for his reputation
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
Because Tories went on strike everywhere! European election read-across to this election is damned near pointless.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. I kept waiting for them to appear, and they never did. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
I don't think they'll repeat any of those mistakes, except for the Phil Hammond one obv. Javid won't be as convincing (and in any case they've thrown away much of their advantage on sound economics).
Good afternoon all.
Which bit of low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment and a vastly reduced deficit is the Tories throwing away any of their advantage on sound economics.
The bits which started going wrong when Hammond left No 11.
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
Being an MP is tough. You cant go back on what got you elected in the way she did and not expect kickback from the voters. The nastiness, in my opinion, is her deception.
An MP should be able to exercise their judgment, rightly or wrongly, consistently or inconsistently without expecting threats of rape and murder.
Yes, they should will not be an MP for long if they do so.
I dont actually think that they should be allowed to do a U-Turn on what got them elected and defect to a party with the opposite policy without holding a by election.
You are entitled to that opinion, but it is not in either the law or the constitution.
You do, however, appear to be condoning activities which are blatantly illegal.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
The Potteries will be the sort of area where the Tories could do very well: two seats in Stoke on Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme, plus adjacent Crewe and Nantwich where the Labour majority is 48.
West Midlands is the key to a healthy Tory majority. Time for places like Coventry, Wolverhampton and maybe even Brum itself to start showing some love for Boris.....
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It is not a low point it is a dishonest lie.
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
If threatening rape and murder of our MPs is not a low point what is?
When did decency stop being a thing? Just because you dont like their politics it shouldnt stop some empathy with the problem women MPs are facing and why many feel it is not worth it.
Anyone threatening rape and murder is a criminal and should be prosecuted - no ifs, no buts, no prevarication.
That has absolutely nothing to do with an MP standing down because they know they would be humiliated in the ballot box.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
Make her Speaker - and you can put your feet up!
We hope
It is on current polling
Not when you apply some intelligence and look at the age and ethnicity profile of the seat.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
To be fair, I don't think @HYUFD is going to be running their campaign.
I am running the Epping campaign
Good luck HYUFD
Thank you (though only Epping town itself) but Eleanor Laing should be safe and will mainly be in marginals like Chingford, Enfield Southgate, Ilford North, Thurrock, Colchester, Brentford and Harlow
Make her Speaker - and you can put your feet up!
We hope
One less blinkered Brexit zealot on the floor of the house.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
TL;DR
The elderly couple are jerks (there’s another story about their behaviour in thread)
The conductor handled it well upgrading the family to first class
Why did the tweeter think that the couple’s “posh voice” has anything to do with anything?
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Not so sure. A LD win requires a level of Labour collapse that would be horrific for them further north......
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
She stood on a ticket of respecting the referendum result and said to hold a second referendum would be to make the UK "the kind of banana republic that I don't want to live in"
Then voted against leaving, defected without holding a by election, and campaigned for a second referendum. She should have been disallowed from standing for parliament ever again on the back of that. Now she can retire to the fluffyness of the family business, good riddance.
Good news for the Tories.....
I think Heidi Allen's behaviour, and the lack of criticism that accompanied it, prove that old men will still forgive a pretty lady anything
Anna Soubry receives a lot more public criticism...
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It is not a low point it is a dishonest lie.
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
If threatening rape and murder of our MPs is not a low point what is?
When did decency stop being a thing? Just because you dont like their politics it shouldnt stop some empathy with the problem women MPs are facing and why many feel it is not worth it.
Anyone threatening rape and murder is a criminal and should be prosecuted - no ifs, no buts, no prevarication.
That has absolutely nothing to do with an MP standing down because they know they would be humiliated in the ballot box.
She is leaving. You are completely guessing at her reasons for doing so, purely for a cheap political point that encourages the criminals. Thats me done on this one.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Wrong. In the European Parliament elections Kensington went LD and the country went Brexit Party, Kensington could again go LD as the country goes Tory and for Boris
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Not so sure. A LD win requires a level of Labour collapse that would be horrific for them further north......
The differing geography of the swings in the coming election will be critical. That’s why people who cut and paste the last opinion poll into seat projection software are wasting their time,
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Not so sure. A LD win requires a level of Labour collapse that would be horrific for them further north......
Exactly, Remainers going LD and Leavers going Tory spells Tory sweep of Labour marginals
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Wrong. In the European Parliament elections Kensington went LD and the country went Brexit Party, Kensington could again go LD as the country goes Tory and for Boris
Have you evaluated any other potential circumstances in which Kensington goes LD?
MPs who don't want to MPs because of the threats and the violence and the abuse.
What a low point our country has reached. I fear for our democracy. And I'm not convinced it isn't going to get worse.
It is not a low point it is a dishonest lie.
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
If threatening rape and murder of our MPs is not a low point what is?
When did decency stop being a thing? Just because you dont like their politics it shouldnt stop some empathy with the problem women MPs are facing and why many feel it is not worth it.
Anyone threatening rape and murder is a criminal and should be prosecuted - no ifs, no buts, no prevarication.
That has absolutely nothing to do with an MP standing down because they know they would be humiliated in the ballot box.
She is leaving. You are completely guessing at her reasons for doing so, purely for a cheap political point that encourages the criminals. Thats me done on this one.
Absolute codswallop.
She is leaving because an election has been called and saying so has nothing to do with criminal behaviour. She hasn't quit mid term and was quite prepared it seems to see another 2.5 years out.
But aren't Labour also wanting to play silly buggers and amend for kids to vote, EU citizens to vote, anybody who is much more likely to vote Labour to get a vote....
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
The Potteries will be the sort of area where the Tories could do very well: two seats in Stoke on Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme, plus adjacent Crewe and Nantwich where the Labour majority is 48.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
They didn't do personal attacks in 2017, amazingly. Nor did they lay into the lunatic policies. They even disallowed the excellent Phil Hammond from going on the media to point out how daft their economic policies were. It was an absolutely catastrophic campaign which gave Labour a free ride.
According to the the leaked People's Vote polling, the 'excellent' Hammond is even less popular than Corbyn...
If Hammond was Tory leader yes Corbyn might become PM
Some interesting things in that chart:
* Johnson is shown as a popular Remain supporter - presumably this is Alan, not Boris? * Corbyn is shown as more popular than Sturgeon, Ed Miliband and Cameron * Burnham and Blunkett are the most popular well-known Labour people. In general Burnham's move to Mayor has been very good for his reputation
Labour made a big mistake not picking Burnham in 2015 as leader
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Not so sure. A LD win requires a level of Labour collapse that would be horrific for them further north......
The differing geography of the swings in the coming election will be critical. That’s why people who cut and paste the last opinion poll into seat projection software are wasting their time,
Agreed.
Another thing to bear in mind is that there has been almost no scrutiny so far of the LibDem leadership & policies.
Both the Tories & Labour will be attacking ferociously in the campaign. I don't see Labour have any reason to go easy on the LibDems now, as it is the LibDems that decided to go for an election.
Ben Bradshaw, like Sheerman, extremely unhappy with election. Extremely.
Wonder if he will stand again?
Both are standing again. Barry sheerman has been in the local paper on the frontpage on a frequent basis with a lot of non stories of late. As a vetran politician he knows the value of getting on the front page near an election for any reason. No such thing as bad publicity...
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
I can understand that Tory strategy. I think Bradshaw was on a news channel saying he would be fighting an election yesterday. I cannot remember which channel as i watched at least 3 yesterday evening!
Thanks. He would be a big loss for Labour in the SW if he doesn't stand. Their Plymouth seats looks a tricky hold.
When the May landslide looked plausible I think there were only 1-2 seats in all the SW that looked winnable for labour (outside Bristol at least). I seem to recall people saying he had to be persuaded to stay on last time.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Wrong. In the European Parliament elections Kensington went LD and the country went Brexit Party, Kensington could again go LD as the country goes Tory and for Boris
Are you seriously extrapolating from the European elections to a GE?
Even by your standards, HYUFD, that it is some stretch! The Tories hardly bothered to show up in the Europeans.
Listening to a labour party activist they are going to be on the streets, knocking on doors, selling their message but he seems to be unaware that a december election changes the normal process especially with dark nights (4.00pm ish), prospect of bad weather, and a public that will hide behind the doors or slam them shut
It will be interesting to see if this election is won on social media and through the broadcast media rather than more traditional canvassing etc
When was an election last won on "traditional canvassing etc" rather than the media?
Answers invited from people of retirement age or older ...
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Not so sure. A LD win requires a level of Labour collapse that would be horrific for them further north......
The differing geography of the swings in the coming election will be critical. That’s why people who cut and paste the last opinion poll into seat projection software are wasting their time,
Agreed.
Another thing to bear in mind is that there has been almost no scrutiny so far of the LibDem leadership & policies.
Both the Tories & Labour will be attacking ferociously in the campaign. I don't see Labour have any reason to go easy on the LibDems now, as it is the LibDems that decided to go for an election.
This will hardly favour tactical voting.
Given the circumstances, both LibDems and Labour would be sensible to go easy on each other. Whether they are sensible remains to be seen.
I'm not at all sure that the Conservatives have thought through the optics. An election in which they're campaigning screeching about Singapore-on-Thames, invading Spain and capital punishment for benefit claimants is going to sit ill with the usual festive idea of tidings of goodwill to all men.
Boris will be offering tax cuts and spending for hospitals and the police and schools and above all to get Brexit done.
Boris will be Santa to May's Cruella Da Vil
Plus Boris will be Santa to Corbyn's Grinch.
Boris is the embodiment of can-do, up-beat Britain-is-Great optimism. Corbyn? Not so much....
Corbyn sells a vision that its terrible now but he can it great again. Not in those words, but it's the same message.
Notice almost all the high profile defectors to the LDs are standing in wealthy parts of central London, a shrewd move from the LDs to target peak Remain.
Gyimah could gain Kensington from Labour
Hang on. Labour won by 20 votes (sic) from Conservatives last time round. Are you saying the Conservatives won't be taking it this time?
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
I think the Tories will take lots of Labour seats in Leave areas in the Midlands, Wales and the North and a few in London and the South.
The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
Answer the bloody question! Are you are saying the Conservatives won't win Kensington, the narrowest Lab/Con marginal in the Country?
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
I think the Tories could win a majority of 100 and still see Kensington go LD not Tory yes.
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
The Potteries will be the sort of area where the Tories could do very well: two seats in Stoke on Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme, plus adjacent Crewe and Nantwich where the Labour majority is 48.
The Tories could sweep the Potteries
Be nice if they did something useful for a change. Cleaning is a much maligned occupation.
Are any Lib Dems worried about Heidi Allen's decision? I was always suspicious of those saying South Cambs will go yellow, on the face of it it looks quite Tory to me. If she was willing to put up with founding her own party and then joining the Lib Dems Im amazed she's standing down entirely for the reasons she cites.
Surely she must have had huge doubts about being able to win her seat?
Not that this suggests Lib Dem local polling is bad everywhere but it could mean that the defectors such as Wollaston are a lot less popular locally than those such as Swinson who stood on a lib dem platform in 2017. Defectors beware...
If Kensington goes LD, Tories have not got a majority of 100.
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
How apparently affluent inner London votes tells us nothing about how core Tory Britain votes. Apparently affluent inner London is Remainer central: not only do they all want to stay in, but they're astonishingly diverse ethnically and socially. and really really really want to stay in.
They're the polar opposite of traditionally "posh" Tory seats in the suburbs or Angleterre Profonde.
When I see LD gains on election night in K&C and the Cities, I'll assume we're on for at least 50 but merely matching 2010. Not until Somerset NE will I start thinking we're purging Britain of the horror Johnson's wrought.
But maybe he's throwing away a majority of 30 that would have allowed him to get his deal through, and to ride on in triumph.
Maybe he's following in Theresa May's footsteps, and trusting too much in the seductive opinion-poll promise of an easy win?
Boris could not get his Deal through without Labour MPs adding a Customs Union or EUref2 rendering it worthless, so a general election to get a Tory majority it must be
Only I was reliably informed that Bradshaw was intent on making 2015 his last term. Had to have his arm twisted a bit in 2017.
There's some huge housing developments going on all around Exeter. Assuming they are within the constituency boundaries, then the Tories must have long term hopes of making it close once his large personal vote isn't there.
If we are talking about the same large scale developments, Mr Mark, they are not in the Exeter constituency. They are in East Devon and Central Devon. But I was under the impression that they had lots of affordable housing anyway.
She is exhausted by the invasion of privacy, nastiness and threats. There is a world of difference between those two statements.
Being an MP is tough. You cant go back on what got you elected in the way she did and not expect kickback from the voters. The nastiness, in my opinion, is her deception.
An MP should be able to exercise their judgment, rightly or wrongly, consistently or inconsistently without expecting threats of rape and murder.
Yes, they should will not be an MP for long if they do so.
I dont actually think that they should be allowed to do a U-Turn on what got them elected and defect to a party with the opposite policy without holding a by election.
Its a view, many will agree, others will not. Argue for it. Dont excuse those who threaten, nearly always against women, when someone goes against their view, by saying they should expect threats and intimidation if they choose to do x or y.
And don’t imply people who haven’t done so have excused anyone for anything
Anyone on the YouGov panel (and who knows if they're doing a poll atm)? It will be cute to see PBTories get excited when they show a 20-point Tory lead.
Valerie Vaz is struggling to form sentences right now.
How did she ever get elected?
She was very poor.
I genuinely couldn’t understand the point she was making. What was the line about repealing the Act? How does that make sense? “We want an election, and we want a far more complex Bill to replace the FTPA to achieve it”.
So yesterday Labour voted against a motion to dissolve Parliament and have an election on 12th December but today they are voting for a bill to, err, dissolve Parliament and have a 12th December election.
At the precise moment you asked your question, I was at a bus stop in Mdina waiting rather impatiently for a 186.
There are, to my knowledge, two PMs who never actually attended Parliament while in office. One was Lord Goderich, 1827-28. His predecessor died while Parliament was in recess, and he had a nervous breakdown before it was recalled.
The other was the Marquis of Bath, who was PM for the princely sum of two days in February 1746, returning the commission when he was unable to form a cabinet. One pamphlet drily called him, ‘ the most wise and honest of all administrations, the minister having ... never transacted one rash thing; and, what is more marvellous, left as much money in the T[reasur]y as he found in it.’
Of course, in terms of percentage I would expect the lowest would be one of our own time. A certain Anthony Charles Lynton Blair attended less than 2% of all debates in the Commons while PM. One magazine had to defend naming him Parliamentarian of the Year after this emerged, and the editor said he only gave Blair the award to annoy Gordon Brown.
Fortunately that editor was such a twat he disappeared without trace In journalism. Anyone know what he’s doing now? His name was Boris Johnson.
Comments
It's not inconceivable Eleanor will be the Speaker before the GE begins so hunt out those white rosettes.
If the LibDem surge is on, her seat is already high on the list. And I am sure the LD candidate will have Heidi’s public endorsement.
Just how many seats you reckon you are going to win then?
https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/1189150040817917954?s=19
Bernard Ingham lamented that John Major's defensiveness was caused by his insistence on reading the papers, whereas Mrs Thatcher just read the suitably filtered press round-up.
He will take a bunch of votes if labour.
Boris is the embodiment of can-do, up-beat Britain-is-Great optimism. Corbyn? Not so much....
You're the one arguing for a single definition of the seasons and now you've introduced a new one.
I'd argue that you can use many definitions of the seasons depending on your purpose and it would be absurd to insist that your favourite definition was the One True Definition Of The Seasons.
I think there are about
seveneight definitions that have some merit and use, and I've been meaning to define my own.The LDs though will take some Tory and Labour seats in central London and a few other Remain areas like St Albans and Cheltenham.
Remember on current polls the Tories have their biggest lead over Labour at a general election since 1983 on average but the Tory lead over the LDs is the smallest since 2010
I dont actually think that they should be allowed to do a U-Turn on what got them elected and defect to a party with the opposite policy without holding a by election.
It will be interesting to see if this election is won on social media and through the broadcast media rather than more traditional canvassing etc
If with no hint of an election coming she took the Chiltern Hundreds saying she couldn't be an MP anymore because of the 'abuse' then yes that would be a low point. Standing down at an election she knows she will lose is meaningless.
This is a seat the Tories held with a 9k majority in 1997. Not exactly a swing seat.
You must be fighting a very defensive war!
Remember Kensington voted LD in the European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1189163100081184768
When did decency stop being a thing? Just because you dont like their politics it shouldnt stop some empathy with the problem women MPs are facing and why many feel it is not worth it.
It certainly sets expectations low.
* Johnson is shown as a popular Remain supporter - presumably this is Alan, not Boris?
* Corbyn is shown as more popular than Sturgeon, Ed Miliband and Cameron
* Burnham and Blunkett are the most popular well-known Labour people. In general Burnham's move to Mayor has been very good for his reputation
You do, however, appear to be condoning activities which are blatantly illegal.
That has absolutely nothing to do with an MP standing down because they know they would be humiliated in the ballot box.
One less blinkered Brexit zealot on the floor of the house.
The elderly couple are jerks (there’s another story about their behaviour in thread)
The conductor handled it well upgrading the family to first class
Why did the tweeter think that the couple’s “posh voice” has anything to do with anything?
They probably haven't got a majority at all.
Gov't tables bill for 12th December
Opposition amends to 9th December
Amended bill for 9th goes through by acclaim ?
She is leaving because an election has been called and saying so has nothing to do with criminal behaviour. She hasn't quit mid term and was quite prepared it seems to see another 2.5 years out.
Another thing to bear in mind is that there has been almost no scrutiny so far of the LibDem leadership & policies.
Both the Tories & Labour will be attacking ferociously in the campaign. I don't see Labour have any reason to go easy on the LibDems now, as it is the LibDems that decided to go for an election.
This will hardly favour tactical voting.
Even by your standards, HYUFD, that it is some stretch! The Tories hardly bothered to show up in the Europeans.
You are a wag.
Answers invited from people of retirement age or older ...
Surely she must have had huge doubts about being able to win her seat?
Not that this suggests Lib Dem local polling is bad everywhere but it could mean that the defectors such as Wollaston are a lot less popular locally than those such as Swinson who stood on a lib dem platform in 2017. Defectors beware...
They're the polar opposite of traditionally "posh" Tory seats in the suburbs or Angleterre Profonde.
When I see LD gains on election night in K&C and the Cities, I'll assume we're on for at least 50 but merely matching 2010. Not until Somerset NE will I start thinking we're purging Britain of the horror Johnson's wrought.
But maybe he's throwing away a majority of 30 that would have allowed him to get his deal through, and to ride on in triumph.
Maybe he's following in Theresa May's footsteps, and trusting too much in the seductive opinion-poll promise of an easy win?
How did she ever get elected?
Regional politics would also have a chance of coming alive.
Am I missing something?
At the precise moment you asked your question, I was at a bus stop in Mdina waiting rather impatiently for a 186.
There are, to my knowledge, two PMs who never actually attended Parliament while in office. One was Lord Goderich, 1827-28. His predecessor died while Parliament was in recess, and he had a nervous breakdown before it was recalled.
The other was the Marquis of Bath, who was PM for the princely sum of two days in February 1746, returning the commission when he was unable to form a cabinet. One pamphlet drily called him, ‘ the most wise and honest of all administrations, the minister having ... never transacted one rash thing; and, what is more marvellous, left as much money in the T[reasur]y as he found in it.’
Of course, in terms of percentage I would expect the lowest would be one of our own time. A certain Anthony Charles Lynton Blair attended less than 2% of all debates in the Commons while PM. One magazine had to defend naming him Parliamentarian of the Year after this emerged, and the editor said he only gave Blair the award to annoy Gordon Brown.
Fortunately that editor was such a twat he disappeared without trace In journalism. Anyone know what he’s doing now? His name was Boris Johnson.