Any Tory MPs who vote against a GE today because they say they want time for the WAB to go through will look awfully silly when the HOC continues to find reasons to block or delay the WAB.
I dont think the EU will be much pleased if the GE Bill is not approved today.
MPs will just try and add a Customs Union or EUref2 if no GE to the WAB
The WA cannot be ammended. Ammendments to the political declaration can be undone by a successor parliament. Boris is rushing to an election when his Brexit strategy has not definitively failed. I dislike comparisons to 1974 (Feb), 1983 or 2017, but I would say that the electorate probably don't like being bounced and are unimpressed by opportunism.
11 and 12 Dec will be the two most popular nights of the year for works Christmas parties. Just saying.
I thought Friday before Christmas was normally the most popular, the 20th, probably followed by the 13th? Though either way I doubt it affects things, people can vote before work, on [lunch] breaks, or after work and before the party, I doubt it will affect turnout. It might marginally affect the viewership of the results coming in but I don't think that's something we need to sweat about.
Plus a lot of parties will only get booked next month and if anyone is that bothered about it they can avoid the clash.
LOL – no chance. Parties and venues will have been booked for months, at least down here. You really have no idea.
No need to turn nasty, maybe learn to read what is written before you turn abusive saying someone has no idea. I didn't say all parties, I said a lot of parties and that is true. Every restaurant in my local area is currently advertising for Christmas Party bookings, if they were all already fully booked I don't think they'd be doing that!
Anyone bloody seething this morning at the state of our politicians? This tweet sums up my feelings. I have seen some crap from MPs over the years, but this arguing over the date of a GE that "saves face" is a new low....
Not really. The argument is a proxy for one about whether the election go ahead without any more votes on the WA, so it is of practical as well as symbolic significance.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
No they don't. There'd have to be such a thing as a bedroom tax in order to pay it.
There is a difference between a tax and a benefit. If someone in a council tax who is paying all taxes due but not claiming benefits has unoccupied rooms how much "tax" do they pay for their bedrooms?
We pay millions a year for the likes of Prince Andrew to consort with a nonce.
What's that got to do with the price of fish?
I'm also a Tory republican but there's still no such thing as a bedroom tax.
My staff Christmas lunch AND Christmas party is the 12th, so I'd really rather it be on the 9th so I can get properly ratarsed rather than door knocking...
I could just about get my head around the benefits of a December 8th election rather than December 12th.now that Boris has agreed to drop brexit legislation, is there any reason at all to be haggling over December 10th or 11th? Incidentally it's completely stupid that we are now planning to move election day from Thursday to a different midweek day. Elections should be on the weekend, Sunday ideally, it drives up voter turnout. If we are scrapping Thursday, let's move it to a weekend.
Isn't there a technique used in the legal profession where a third party guarantees an agreement between two parties who don't trust each other? Maybe they could do something like that.
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
Is this really what's driving him? I'm not so sure. I do take the point that he will want a majority post Brexit. But isn't the real issue the one alluded to by HYUFD, namely that he thinks the WAB will be successfully amended in Parliament and that it will no longer resemble his deal. The killer there is that the Brexiteers would hate an amended WAB that includes things like a customs union.
Boris has been pitching for a pre-Brexit election since September (remember the JFC meme?). The irony is the excuse reason Corbyn gave for turning it down is much the same Boris uses now: fear of amendment.
This election is the LDs' big chance to replace Labour as the main opposition party.
You really think that's even a remote possibility?
I hope so. It happened in Scotland, the odds are slim but it is more possible than its been in a long time.
The MPs like Watson who know Corbyn is awful, voted they had No Confidence in him, are not antisemitic and don't think its OK but still continue to stick with the Labour Party have nobody to blame but themselves if they are replaced by Lib Dem MPs.
From top to bottom the whole PLP are not fit for purpose and are cowards the lot of them. The Corbynite leadership for shrinking away from an election and the chance to win it and gain power. The anti-Corbynite PLP backbenchers for refusing to challenge Corbyn again and refusing to leave the party with Chuka and others.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
So, build more council homes then as we are doing in Epping Forest for the homeless.
Plus the spare room subsidy was correctly removed for those who do not use rooms, most Buckingham Palace rooms are used for state events, receptions, dinners etc
Build a nice five bed three reception roomed detached house in the grounds and turn that palace into a full time museum if it can be economically renovated and show a profit from admission charges.
Where are you going to host state banquets, receptions, garden parties and investitures?
I respect the republican point of view, but moving in that direction wouldn’t actually save money.
In the palace, we could charge premium prices for viewing such events and turn the less interesting parts into some form of social housing.
Andy JS said: "This election is the LDs' big chance to replace Labour as the main opposition party."
Yes, I think you are right - this prompted me to look again at Electoral Calculus`s seat predictor and play around a bit.
I have Lindsay Hoyle at risk in Chorley. In 2017 he had a 7k majority over the Tories.
Does anyone know what would happen if he is elected Speaker then loses his seat?
New Parliament always elects a new Speaker. If the Speaker has been re-elected this is frequenty just a formality but if the old Speaker hasn't been re-elected it won't be.
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
Is this really what's driving him? I'm not so sure. I do take the point that he will want a majority post Brexit. But isn't the real issue the one alluded to by HYUFD, namely that he thinks the WAB will be successfully amended in Parliament and that it will no longer resemble his deal. The killer there is that the Brexiteers would hate an amended WAB that includes things like a customs union.
Boris has been pitching for a pre-Brexit election since September (remember the JFC meme?). The irony is the excuse reason Corbyn gave for turning it down is much the same Boris uses now: fear of amendment.
Which is more important to Boris? His deal or being PM?
Andy JS said: "This election is the LDs' big chance to replace Labour as the main opposition party."
Yes, I think you are right - this prompted me to look again at Electoral Calculus`s seat predictor and play around a bit.
I have Lindsay Hoyle at risk in Chorley. In 2017 he had a 7k majority over the Tories.
Does anyone know what would happen if he is elected Speaker then loses his seat?
New Parliament always elects a new Speaker. If the Speaker has been re-elected this is frequenty just a formality but if the old Speaker hasn't been re-elected it won't be.
Except convention says Hoyle won't then have the other parties stand against him.....
I could just about get my head around the benefits of a December 8th election rather than December 12th.now that Boris has agreed to drop brexit legislation, is there any reason at all to be haggling over December 10th or 11th? Incidentally it's completely stupid that we are now planning to move election day from Thursday to a different midweek day. Elections should be on the weekend, Sunday ideally, it drives up voter turnout. If we are scrapping Thursday, let's move it to a weekend.
I am not sure it is a childish argument about dates, but according to some it is a practical one about outstanding bills that need sorting before this parliament ends
Andy JS said: "This election is the LDs' big chance to replace Labour as the main opposition party."
Yes, I think you are right - this prompted me to look again at Electoral Calculus`s seat predictor and play around a bit.
I have Lindsay Hoyle at risk in Chorley. In 2017 he had a 7k majority over the Tories.
Does anyone know what would happen if he is elected Speaker then loses his seat?
New Parliament always elects a new Speaker. If the Speaker has been re-elected this is frequenty just a formality but if the old Speaker hasn't been re-elected it won't be.
Except convention says Hoyle won't then have the other parties stand against him.....
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
You think she was in receipt of the spare room subsidy to begin with?
The Windsor family are the biggest benefit recipients in the country.
The Windsor family generate more income from tourism and the Crown estates than any other family in the country
Do the French need a living royal family to draw in all the tourists to their former royal palaces? The tourist would still come even if the UK was a republic.
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
Where's your landslide gone then
Still there with Yougov and Opinium
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
I could just about get my head around the benefits of a December 8th election rather than December 12th.now that Boris has agreed to drop brexit legislation, is there any reason at all to be haggling over December 10th or 11th? Incidentally it's completely stupid that we are now planning to move election day from Thursday to a different midweek day. Elections should be on the weekend, Sunday ideally, it drives up voter turnout. If we are scrapping Thursday, let's move it to a weekend.
Except that would make it on the busiest shopping weekend of the year!
The crucial point there, once again, is that Boris is desperate for a pre-Brexit election because he knows the hard reality of straight bananas, bent cucumbers and blue passports would doom his premiership. Boris fears Project Fear was right.
Is this really what's driving him? I'm not so sure. I do take the point that he will want a majority post Brexit. But isn't the real issue the one alluded to by HYUFD, namely that he thinks the WAB will be successfully amended in Parliament and that it will no longer resemble his deal. The killer there is that the Brexiteers would hate an amended WAB that includes things like a customs union.
Boris has been pitching for a pre-Brexit election since September (remember the JFC meme?). The irony is the excuse reason Corbyn gave for turning it down is much the same Boris uses now: fear of amendment.
Which is more important to Boris? His deal or being PM?
Being Prime Minister is more important to Boris, who was never a headbanger Brexiteer.
One imagines the SNP's dream scenario is that 50+ SNP MPs are elected on a mandate of stopping Brexit and holding an independence referendum while simultaneously a majority of the UK Parliament thanks to England and Wales is won by the Conservatives that "drags Scotland out of the EU against its will".
The SNP will never openly admit it, but I don't think that is 'a worry' in their heart of hearts that is the perfect storm they would wish for.
[snip] There's also the view that we normally have GE's every 4-5 years. Since 2015 we've had two. When local councils are elected the councillors have to get on with whatever and they're dealt. Why can't/don't MP's?
I have an (admittedly niche) view that May did badly because she went out of the 4-5 year cycle and people went "Why do we need this?" An election now would be when we should have been having one without June 2017, so we are back in synch with when people expect an election.
It is possible some people think like this. It would be extraordinary if it was so widespread and also changed peoples voting preferences.
A sort of political circadian rhythm. Like when people's sleep circadian rhythms get broken, they get crabby with whoever woke them up (May in 2017). The political circadian rhythms are now telling people it is the right time to vote (Boris will benefit in 2019).
Niche, as I said.
I kind of could buy into the expectations of a 4/5 year cycle like a circadian rhythm. Just very confused why it determines which way people vote. Are you suggesting the swing voters main concern is the timing of the election rather than NHS, Brexit, economy?
I'm suggesting that when it's outside the natural rhythm of when an election feels "about right", voters get ornery....and logical arguments around weighing policy are less applicable.
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
Where's your landslide gone then
Still there with Yougov and Opinium
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
We also have to see how efficient his vote share is distributed, how efficient the opposition vote share is distributed and how much tactical voting happens.
I imagine some LDs and Greens and BXP will shift back to the big two, but how much probably matters less than where.
From earlier analysis wasn't there evidence suggesting that the Lab / LD targets were more disparate and therefore the vote share of Remain opposition votes was more efficient than the broad Leave vote?
Andy JS said: "This election is the LDs' big chance to replace Labour as the main opposition party."
Yes, I think you are right - this prompted me to look again at Electoral Calculus`s seat predictor and play around a bit.
I have Lindsay Hoyle at risk in Chorley. In 2017 he had a 7k majority over the Tories.
Does anyone know what would happen if he is elected Speaker then loses his seat?
New Parliament always elects a new Speaker. If the Speaker has been re-elected this is frequenty just a formality but if the old Speaker hasn't been re-elected it won't be.
Except convention says Hoyle won't then have the other parties stand against him.....
Convention is not always respected.
Though in Hoyle's case I think it would be.
Plaid say they'll stand against Bryant if he's elected. Not a big risk of that though I would have thought.
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
Where's your landslide gone then
Still there with Yougov and Opinium
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
Except it does, because while the Tories are down 7%, Labour are down 15%+.....
And the difference in representation between FPTP and PR systems is not so great when under PR you exclude all parties getting under 5% from getting MPs.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
You think she was in receipt of the spare room subsidy to begin with?
The Windsor family are the biggest benefit recipients in the country.
The Windsor family generate more income from tourism and the Crown estates than any other family in the country
Do the French need a living royal family to draw in all the tourists to their former royal palaces? The tourist would still come even if the UK was a republic.
Of course that is the case!
Just look at the stats for the work's most visited castles/palaces: 1: Forbidden City (Beijing) gets 15.3 million annual visitors 2: The Louvre (Paris) 9.3 milion annual visitors 3: Grand Palace (Bangkok) 8 million annual visitors 4: Palace of Versailles (France) 7.5 million annual visitors
The UK's first entry is at number 7 7: Tower of London 2.9 million annual visitors 17: Edinburgh Castle 1.4 million annual visitors 19: Window Castle 1.3 million annual visitors
The Republic of France has two castles in the top 5, we barely scrape one into the top 10. The French Republic gets miles more tourism from its castles than we do, funny that!
OllyT said: "According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)"
This is not comparing apples with apples. May didn`t have BXP to compete with.
I wonder if we'll see Tories, especially women, not voting at all. Polling suggests that Boris has a negative factor there. Castle Point, one of the most surprising Labour gains in 1997 was held to be because the Tory candidate, the sitting MP, upset a significant section of the local female Tories.
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
Where's your landslide gone then
Still there with Yougov and Opinium
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
Except it does, because while the Tories are down 7%, Labour are down 15%+.....
And the difference in representation between FPTP and PR systems is not so great when under PR you exclude all parties getting under 5% from getting MPs.
Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”
No sympathy for him. Many of the 21 voted for the programme motion, he did not knowing that he would not regain the whip
I wonder if all the mps who rebelled against their whips ever thought for a minute they would have to face the consequences so quickly
Perhaps he can go and get a job with George Osborne
Philip_Thompson said: "Convention is not always respected.
Though in Hoyle's case I think it would be."
In that case I think Labour are dodging a bullet if Hoyle becomes speaker, because I reckon they could lose Chorley if it was competed.
Good reason for Tories not to vote for him....
Disagreed.
Hoyle will make an excellent Speaker and there is no good reason to not vote for him. If it comes down to just 1 MP making the difference after the election then it has been screwed up and the Tories won't be in any position to replace whoever has been chosen as Speaker so far better someone properly neutral like Hoyle than this Parliament choosing and then keeping someone who will be far more like Bercow.
... Oh and if the 1 seat is all the difference it won't be Hoyle's seat anyway! Hoyle only loses in a scenario where the Tories have gained a decent majority.
Anyone bloody seething this morning at the state of our politicians? This tweet sums up my feelings. I have seen some crap from MPs over the years, but this arguing over the date of a GE that "saves face" is a new low.
I am starting to come round to the view that we need to sweep the whole bloody lot of them away, which is most unlike me.
Absolutely not. I think the problem the two biggest parties, which gave too much power to their members, which in turn brought about a crazier members > crazier leader -> crazier members spiral of crazy.
Combine this with FPTP and it has the potential to be totally catastrophic, and long-standing parliamentarians are doing an excellent job of preventing everything going to shit, under extremely difficult circumstances.
If Parliament agrees a general election today wouldn't it make more sense for Bercow to stay on until dissolusion next week and have the Speaker electionon the first day back with the new Parliament?
If Parliament agrees a general election today wouldn't it make more sense for Bercow to stay on until dissolusion next week and have the Speaker electionon the first day back with the new Parliament?
Yes it would but Bercow is deliberately trying to get this Parliament to choose his successor to carry forward into the next.
OllyT said: "According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)"
This is not comparing apples with apples. May didn`t have BXP to compete with.
HYFUD seems to be believe that Bozo's arrival is akin to the second coming. I am simply pointing out that significantly less people support Bozo's Conservative Party than supported May's Conservative Party.
Wasn't the great one supposed to crush BXP back into the dust as his Brexit zeal shone through?
The fact that significant numbers are still supporting BXP simply means that like many of us they don't trust him either.
OllyT said: "According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)"
This is not comparing apples with apples. May didn`t have BXP to compete with.
HYFUD seems to be believe that Bozo's arrival is akin to the second coming. I am simply pointing out that significantly less people support Bozo's Conservative Party than supported May's Conservative Party.
That's not correct.
Far more people in 2019 support Boris's Conservative Party than supported May's Conservative Party in 2019.
If Parliament agrees a general election today wouldn't it make more sense for Bercow to stay on until dissolusion next week and have the Speaker electionon the first day back with the new Parliament?
Yes it would but Bercow is deliberately trying to get this Parliament to choose his successor to carry forward into the next.
Any way the government can suspend the Speakers election on Monday?
If Parliament agrees a general election today wouldn't it make more sense for Bercow to stay on until dissolusion next week and have the Speaker electionon the first day back with the new Parliament?
Sense and this Parliament are a contradiction Gin but yes very practical
If Parliament agrees a general election today wouldn't it make more sense for Bercow to stay on until dissolusion next week and have the Speaker electionon the first day back with the new Parliament?
Yes it would but Bercow is deliberately trying to get this Parliament to choose his successor to carry forward into the next.
Anyway the government can suspend the Speakers election on Monday?
I suppose dissolution before the Speaker's Election will void the matter. But Bercow could try and ram in his successors election during the wash up I think.
OllyT said: "According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)"
This is not comparing apples with apples. May didn`t have BXP to compete with.
HYFUD seems to be believe that Bozo's arrival is akin to the second coming. I am simply pointing out that significantly less people support Bozo's Conservative Party than supported May's Conservative Party.
Yes but then HY told us that Bozo was a man of principle who would surely resign rather than be forced to extend Brexit for another time - despite the evidence starting everyone in the face that he's a self-obsessed narcissist interested only in his own power and position.
Is Soubry even going to bother running for Change UK in Broxtowe now ?
Is her personal vote enough to save her deposit?
Yes. I'm not an admirer, but she's seen as socially liberal and hard-working and reliably anti-Brexit, all of which appeal to part of the Broxtowe electorate. She has offended loads of people but she definitely has her fans. The question is how many will actually vote for her and what part of the electorate - but I do expect her to at least nudge 10%. Both Tories and Labour are extremely well-organised there and it's genuinely hard to predict who will actually win. The Tories should on current polling be favourites but they rejected local candidates and picked someone with no local connections.
MarqueeMark said: "Good reason for Tories not to vote for him...."
Stocky said: "That`s interesting - do you think that tactical voting like this may produce a surprise choice for Speaker? I had Hoyle as nailed on."
"Absolutely......"
Eleanor Laing`s been taking money this morning. This who you have in mind ?????
Works for me....
Laing was an @HYUFD tip iirc. Anyway, I now need to take the profit or let it ride. Or wait till I have time away from work to reassess all the runners and riders. And it is not even the busiest day for works Christmas parties!
Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”
No sympathy for him. Many of the 21 voted for the programme motion, he did not knowing that he would not regain the whip
I wonder if all the mps who rebelled against their whips ever thought for a minute they would have to face the consequences so quickly
Perhaps he can go and get a job with George Osborne
Since he has a brain, a spine, principles and is not insane, there is no place for him in this iteration of the Conservative party.
Except it is the LibDems and the SNP who are using the delay to hammer home their "Boris Johnson can't be trusted" meme. Yawn.
How gullible do you have to be to have a scrap of trust in the man? Idiocy, pure and simple.
If they place a quantum of trust in Johnson then they will richly deserve the inevitable and imminent betrayal that will come their way. He'll drown them in fucking ball sauce like he did to that Arcuri woman.
So what? The state effectively owns council homes and those residents pay the bedroom tax.
You think she was in receipt of the spare room subsidy to begin with?
The Windsor family are the biggest benefit recipients in the country.
The Windsor family generate more income from tourism and the Crown estates than any other family in the country
Do the French need a living royal family to draw in all the tourists to their former royal palaces? The tourist would still come even if the UK was a republic.
Exactly, if the idea is that tourists come to the UK to see the Royal family the most are going to be disappointed because they won't see them. I doubt visitor numbers to say Windsor castle vary one jot whether Liz is there or not.
Versailles draws huge numbers. I am not sure but do the plebs ever even get to visit Balmoral or Sandringham?
I expect a significant dip in support for the monarchy when the current incumbent shuffles off the throne
Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”
No sympathy for him. Many of the 21 voted for the programme motion, he did not knowing that he would not regain the whip
I wonder if all the mps who rebelled against their whips ever thought for a minute they would have to face the consequences so quickly
Perhaps he can go and get a job with George Osborne
Since he has a brain, a spine, principles and is not insane, there is no place for him in this iteration of the Conservative party.
I see no evidence of his sanity from his time in 11 Downing St blocking no deal preparations while spending billions on Trident. No deal was always a more likely risk than global nuclear war.
Is Soubry even going to bother running for Change UK in Broxtowe now ?
Is her personal vote enough to save her deposit?
Yes. I'm not an admirer, but she's seen as socially liberal and hard-working and reliably anti-Brexit, all of which appeal to part of the Broxtowe electorate. She has offended loads of people but she definitely has her fans. The question is how many will actually vote for her and what part of the electorate - but I do expect her to at least nudge 10%. Both Tories and Labour are extremely well-organised there and it's genuinely hard to predict who will actually win. The Tories should on current polling be favourites but they rejected local candidates and picked someone with no local connections.
Soubry at least needs the LibDems to stand down surely?
Is Soubry even going to bother running for Change UK in Broxtowe now ?
Is her personal vote enough to save her deposit?
Yes. I'm not an admirer, but she's seen as socially liberal and hard-working and reliably anti-Brexit, all of which appeal to part of the Broxtowe electorate. She has offended loads of people but she definitely has her fans. The question is how many will actually vote for her and what part of the electorate - but I do expect her to at least nudge 10%. Both Tories and Labour are extremely well-organised there and it's genuinely hard to predict who will actually win. The Tories should on current polling be favourites but they rejected local candidates and picked someone with no local connections.
I think that's fair. Despite her faults, I quite like her... and the suggestions from some here that she's bonkers have a touch of the pot and kettle about them.
On most current polling the Tories will pick up more Labour seats than they lose seats to the LDs and SNP. The Boris Deal is also more popular than the May Deal in the polling, especially with Leavers with whom it is now also preferred to No Deal which the May Deal was not so that makes it more likely to be an effective Brexit solution and the Deal will pass with a Tory majority.
If the DUP held the balance of power again and with the 21 anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit candidates, it would most likely be No Deal
Where's your landslide gone then
Still there with Yougov and Opinium
According to the Britain Elects poll tracker Tories are polling at 35%. That is well behind what May got in 2017 (42%)
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
Except it does, because while the Tories are down 7%, Labour are down 15%+.....
And the difference in representation between FPTP and PR systems is not so great when under PR you exclude all parties getting under 5% from getting MPs.
The difference between FPTP and PR would be enough to ensure Bozo would not have an overall majority, or indeed a majority at all.
Obviously people who want a government with a majority that is artificially created by the voting system will be happy with our unrepresentative system but at least have the decency to admit it is not really fair or democratic.
So I found the following in just a few moments. The prediction about Macron was not a bad one in fact, but your failure to acknowledge you were wrong and your insistence that opinions are facts in mind blowing. You really do have some serious issues. This is very Plato like:
All from HYUFD on 19 October:
And Macron will then veto further extensions if the commons has not voted for a deal by then end of the week
If the commons refuses to vote for the deal or for an EUref2 or GE Macron will veto a further extension. No question.
And macron will veto further extension meaning no deal
Macron vetos further extensions and we go Brexit with no deal....
No need macron will veto further extensions by the end of the week
If the commons has not voted for Boris’ deal an EUref2 or GE by the end of the week the French Government have rightly made it clear they will veto a further extension and no deal Brexit it is.
Hammond: “ I am not prepared to give up on my party, just because a bunch of people from Vote Leave have [sic] been parachuted in and are now calling the shots”
No sympathy for him. Many of the 21 voted for the programme motion, he did not knowing that he would not regain the whip
I wonder if all the mps who rebelled against their whips ever thought for a minute they would have to face the consequences so quickly
Perhaps he can go and get a job with George Osborne
Since he has a brain, a spine, principles and is not insane, there is no place for him in this iteration of the Conservative party.
I see no evidence of his sanity from his time in 11 Downing St blocking no deal preparations while spending billions on Trident. No deal was always a more likely risk than global nuclear war.
At that stage the lunatics did not have control of the asylum.
Comments
Yes, I think you are right - this prompted me to look again at Electoral Calculus`s seat predictor and play around a bit.
I have Lindsay Hoyle at risk in Chorley. In 2017 he had a 7k majority over the Tories.
Does anyone know what would happen if he is elected Speaker then loses his seat?
I wonder if we will get the Dec election. Logic says that if both Swinson and Sturgeon are determined to have one, it will happen.
My hunch still says No to a Christmas GE. Not sure why I remain unconvinced but I am. It just feels wrong.
I'm also a Tory republican but there's still no such thing as a bedroom tax.
AndyJS said:
"This election is the LDs' big chance to replace Labour as the main opposition party."
"You really think that's even a remote possibility?"
Well - it`s fair to say that far more people in UK are liberal than collectivist. By a large margin.
Labour has been punching over its weight forever and LibDems underperforming.
As a believer in voting according to one`s ideology if we had to stick with FPTP I`d prefer the two largest parties to be CP and LD.
The MPs like Watson who know Corbyn is awful, voted they had No Confidence in him, are not antisemitic and don't think its OK but still continue to stick with the Labour Party have nobody to blame but themselves if they are replaced by Lib Dem MPs.
From top to bottom the whole PLP are not fit for purpose and are cowards the lot of them. The Corbynite leadership for shrinking away from an election and the chance to win it and gain power. The anti-Corbynite PLP backbenchers for refusing to challenge Corbyn again and refusing to leave the party with Chuka and others.
We are not worthy.
Though in Hoyle's case I think it would be.
Do the French need a living royal family to draw in all the tourists to their former royal palaces? The tourist would still come even if the UK was a republic.
Bozo looks good because the opposition is now more split than in 2017 but in reality he is far less popular than May was.
If we had a fair PR voting system Bozo would be looking at far less seats than May would have won in 2017. The only thing that is going to give Bozo a landslide is the fact that we have an electoral system that doesn't reflect how people voted.
Though in Hoyle's case I think it would be."
In that case I think Labour are dodging a bullet if Hoyle becomes speaker, because I reckon they could lose Chorley if it was competed.
Surely the BBC is not that naive?
One imagines the SNP's dream scenario is that 50+ SNP MPs are elected on a mandate of stopping Brexit and holding an independence referendum while simultaneously a majority of the UK Parliament thanks to England and Wales is won by the Conservatives that "drags Scotland out of the EU against its will".
The SNP will never openly admit it, but I don't think that is 'a worry' in their heart of hearts that is the perfect storm they would wish for.
I imagine some LDs and Greens and BXP will shift back to the big two, but how much probably matters less than where.
From earlier analysis wasn't there evidence suggesting that the Lab / LD targets were more disparate and therefore the vote share of Remain opposition votes was more efficient than the broad Leave vote?
This is not comparing apples with apples. May didn`t have BXP to compete with.
That`s interesting - do you think that tactical voting like this may produce a surprise choice for Speaker? I had Hoyle as nailed on.
And the difference in representation between FPTP and PR systems is not so great when under PR you exclude all parties getting under 5% from getting MPs.
Pulpstar said:
"Is Soubry even going to bother running for Change UK in Broxtowe now ?"
"Yes - she confirmed she will stand again on Sky this morning"
She`s deluded. Her chance of being elected are roughly ........ nil.
Big word 'might'
Just look at the stats for the work's most visited castles/palaces:
1: Forbidden City (Beijing) gets 15.3 million annual visitors
2: The Louvre (Paris) 9.3 milion annual visitors
3: Grand Palace (Bangkok) 8 million annual visitors
4: Palace of Versailles (France) 7.5 million annual visitors
The UK's first entry is at number 7
7: Tower of London 2.9 million annual visitors
17: Edinburgh Castle 1.4 million annual visitors
19: Window Castle 1.3 million annual visitors
The Republic of France has two castles in the top 5, we barely scrape one into the top 10. The French Republic gets miles more tourism from its castles than we do, funny that!
Castle Point, one of the most surprising Labour gains in 1997 was held to be because the Tory candidate, the sitting MP, upset a significant section of the local female Tories.
Soubry lost the plot years ago. All she has left to lose now politically is her seat.
You don't want to be fiddling with your laces when the start gun pops.
http://britainelects.com/
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/35.1/25.4/18.1/11.3/4/4/0/1
Lab, LDem, SNP, PC, G Remain Tactical Voting:
Con 279
Lab 224
LDem 71
SNP 53
PC 4
G 1
Con BXP Leave Tactical Voting:
Cons 415
Lab 134
SNP 47
LDem 32
PC 3
G 1
Assuming No Tactical Voting:
Con 352
Lab 180
SNP 50
LDem 45
PC 4
G 1
Both sides tactical voting:
Con 338
Lab 183
SNP 53
LDem 53
PC 4
G 1
I assume the actual result will be somewhere between the first and last examples, as I don't see Remainers not tactical voting.
Stocky said: "That`s interesting - do you think that tactical voting like this may produce a surprise choice for Speaker? I had Hoyle as nailed on."
"Absolutely......"
Eleanor Laing`s been taking money this morning. This who you have in mind ?????
Hoyle will make an excellent Speaker and there is no good reason to not vote for him. If it comes down to just 1 MP making the difference after the election then it has been screwed up and the Tories won't be in any position to replace whoever has been chosen as Speaker so far better someone properly neutral like Hoyle than this Parliament choosing and then keeping someone who will be far more like Bercow.
... Oh and if the 1 seat is all the difference it won't be Hoyle's seat anyway! Hoyle only loses in a scenario where the Tories have gained a decent majority.
But I have adjusted my betting profile so Dec is OK too in that sense now.
Combine this with FPTP and it has the potential to be totally catastrophic, and long-standing parliamentarians are doing an excellent job of preventing everything going to shit, under extremely difficult circumstances.
Wasn't the great one supposed to crush BXP back into the dust as his Brexit zeal shone through?
The fact that significant numbers are still supporting BXP simply means that like many of us they don't trust him either.
Far more people in 2019 support Boris's Conservative Party than supported May's Conservative Party in 2019.
Do you want an election in December then?
It is looking ON.
Oh god.
Versailles draws huge numbers. I am not sure but do the plebs ever even get to visit Balmoral or Sandringham?
I expect a significant dip in support for the monarchy when the current incumbent shuffles off the throne
The more pertinent question is in whose favour they are currently misleading.
Despite her faults, I quite like her... and the suggestions from some here that she's bonkers have a touch of the pot and kettle about them.
Obviously people who want a government with a majority that is artificially created by the voting system will be happy with our unrepresentative system but at least have the decency to admit it is not really fair or democratic.
@HYUFD
So I found the following in just a few moments. The prediction about Macron was not a bad one in fact, but your failure to acknowledge you were wrong and your insistence that opinions are facts in mind blowing. You really do have some serious issues. This is very Plato like:
All from HYUFD on 19 October:
And Macron will then veto further extensions if the commons has not voted for a deal by then end of the week
If the commons refuses to vote for the deal or for an EUref2 or GE Macron will veto a further extension. No question.
And macron will veto further extension meaning no deal
Macron vetos further extensions and we go Brexit with no deal....
No need macron will veto further extensions by the end of the week
If the commons has not voted for Boris’ deal an EUref2 or GE by the end of the week the French Government have rightly made it clear they will veto a further extension and no deal Brexit it is.