Thank god, the madness of a non-thursday election has been avoided.
????
First, it hasn't yet. Labour haven't said which date they will go for. In fact they've explicitly said all of them are fine.
Second, the iconic veneration of sacred Thursday is a farce. It's no more special than any other day for the holding of an election. Sooner we boot it out the better.
FWIW I agree with whoever said we should vote on Sundays.
But not on the busiest shopping weekends of the year!
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
Instinctively I agree with this, but I am concerned that with the DUP possibly opposing everything including extension, there is a chance that a hung parliament can lead to no deal, which neither Tory nor Labour governments would.
Minority Labour administration propped up by confidence and supply from Libs SNP and one or two Alliance/SDLP from NI would be my bet for where this ends up.
Yes the rainbow coalition has been very successful in agreeing on how to work on Brexit.
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
Minority Labour administration propped up by confidence and supply from Libs SNP and one or two Alliance/SDLP from NI would be my bet for where this ends up.
Spoke about this on here the other day 33/1 with Sky bet
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
I asked the question, to no reply as it wasn't troll-inducing, of what might be the over/under % of turnout in the forthcoming election. Looking at recent thread headers I saw that TSE has tipped a high turnout. I had thought it would be low as people are surely bored to death of politics, and reluctant to vote in the same jokers who have paralysed the country for three and a half years.. 16/1 sub 60% looked good.
Although I guess the opposing argument of people being enthused to get it over with one way or the other is also reasonable.
I would have thought there is an opportuntity for people who haven't previously been MPs to do well on a "Do you really want to re elect the jokers who have dithered for the last god know how long?" ticket
My guess is that the public are more engaged than they have been for a long time and you can't say about the parties "they're all the same" so turnout will be the highest in decades.
They're kind of engaged, but I think they hate MPs more than ever, and some people, maybe a lot of people, hate all of them rather than the traditional 'enemy'
Indeed and voting gives them a chance to vent their hatred.
mr_claypole said: "Hmm this could go very pear shaped for Boris
Minority Labour administration propped up by confidence and supply from Libs SNP and one or two Alliance/SDLP from NI would be my bet for where this ends up."
Yep - I`ve posted similar sentiments on this forum a few times. This time Tories won`t (presumably) have the DUP.
When Labour's Chief Whip is sayimg "You can't have an election now - you'll get slaughtered...." then maybe Labour's prospects really are awful?
They are. Charge of the lightbrigade stuff.
Actually, the Light Brigade succeeded and took their objective. The battle was lost because the Heavy Brigade did not do their bit. It also did not help that they sent the Light Brigade to attack the wrong target...
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
God, no. Anything but please.
I think the voters will have had enough of hung Parliaments for a while.
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
Probably.
It seems recently the polls have alternated error. Hopefully the pattern continues
Pre-2010: Underestimated Labour Pre-2015: Underestimated Tories Pre-2017: Understimated Labour Pre-2019: ???
Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
Boris will go full on, all-out attack against Corbyn. "He wants to spend billions on nationalising the railways. I want to send billions on the NHS. You must decide - which gives YOU the better value for money?"
NHS Top Trumps railways every time.
Easy to counter that. "The Tories want to spend millions on US drug companies. We will spend millions on helping you."
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
I asked the question, to no reply as it wasn't troll-inducing, of what might be the over/under % of turnout in the forthcoming election. Looking at recent thread headers I saw that TSE has tipped a high turnout. I had thought it would be low as people are surely bored to death of politics, and reluctant to vote in the same jokers who have paralysed the country for three and a half years.. 16/1 sub 60% looked good.
Although I guess the opposing argument of people being enthused to get it over with one way or the other is also reasonable.
I would have thought there is an opportuntity for people who haven't previously been MPs to do well on a "Do you really want to re elect the jokers who have dithered for the last god know how long?" ticket
My guess is that the public are more engaged than they have been for a long time and you can't say about the parties "they're all the same" so turnout will be the highest in decades.
They're kind of engaged, but I think they hate MPs more than ever, and some people, maybe a lot of people, hate all of them rather than the traditional 'enemy'
Indeed and voting gives them a chance to vent their hatred.
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
If you have a choice for lunch: sandwich, sushi or soup ...
Then I would vote sushi. However if it comes 5 votes soup, 2 votes sushi, 4 votes sandwich then I accept that soup was the most popular option in that vote . . . even if I and the other sushi voter may have had sandwich as their second choice it isn't what we chose.
Its possible to have other variants to FPTP that seek to meet the same objective like the Australian or French voting systems but FPTP does the job too.
You are a logic-free zone and it feels utterly pointless getting into a discussion with you.
But I suppose the letter saga already demonstrated that...
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
Will Cummings be running the Tory election campaign?
Well Lynton Crosby won't be involved but I wouldnt be surprised to see Andrew Hirst who ran Sco Mo's succesful campaign get on board. You'd imagine Cummings will want plenty of control though, given how well he did in the ref he'd be looking forward to a Brexit election.
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
Boris will go full on, all-out attack against Corbyn. "He wants to spend billions on nationalising the railways. I want to send billions on the NHS. You must decide - which gives YOU the better value for money?"
NHS Top Trumps railways every time.
Easy to counter that. "The Tories want to spend millions on US drug companies. We will spend millions on helping you."
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
ANd we know that Boris and Trump are bosom pals... or like to portray themselves that way. That offers a very obvious line of attack that Boris is Trump's way in to the UK infrastructure.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No.
I will be challenging a Conservative or Labour Government from day one and I imagine our good friend @HYUFD will be on the barricades (verbally) if Labour were to win a majority and will be defending a Conservative Government to the hilt from said day.
Politics has a habit of surprising - if you had told a newly elected or re-elected Conservative MP on the night of Thatcher's third GE win in 1987 that not only would she be out within three and a half years but it would be the MPs themselves who would get rid of her, I doubt you'd have been given any credence.
All sounds quite tiring. I’m looking forward to sitting down with a cuppa and TMS in the new year rather than endless arguing about politics. (Cyclefree: look away, that’s a cricket reference).
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
Instinctively I agree with this, but I am concerned that with the DUP possibly opposing everything including extension, there is a chance that a hung parliament can lead to no deal, which neither Tory nor Labour governments would.
I fear that Boris with a large majority will lead to a No Deal and no FTA with the EU either. The No Dealers have only reluctantly agreed to Boris's deal because they feared getting no Brexit otherwise. With a large majority I fear they will revert to what they really want.
I don't think personal attacks on Corbyn are a good idea for the Tories. They patently didn't work in 2017. Best to stick to policy from their point of view.
mr_claypole said: "Hmm this could go very pear shaped for Boris
Minority Labour administration propped up by confidence and supply from Libs SNP and one or two Alliance/SDLP from NI would be my bet for where this ends up."
Yep - I`ve posted similar sentiments on this forum a few times. This time Tories won`t (presumably) have the DUP.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
No. Autum starts on the 1st September and finishes on the 30th November. Three months for each. (Don't get me started on this. My wife and I argue every three months. She views the seasons as 21st December to 20th March for winter... and so on.... we laugh now... mostly) And as for my brother's insane approach to the seasons (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb - Winter, Mar, Apr - Spring.. etc)......
Will Cummings be running the Tory election campaign?
Well Lynton Crosby won't be involved but I wouldnt be surprised to see Andrew Hirst who ran Sco Mo's succesful campaign get on board. You'd imagine Cummings will want plenty of control though, given how well he did in the ref he'd be looking forward to a Brexit election.
Why won't Crosby be involved? He's been involved both with the Tories and Boris in the past.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
There is no such thing as the meteorological definition, that’s just Met Office spin. The seasons are set by the cosmos. There is a Met Office definition, but government agencies have no power to defy the laws of physics.
Winter begins on 21 Dec and ends on 21 March.
That's rather a loose post. There certainly 'is' a meteorological definition. All winter records around the world use it as a standard.
If you stop for a second and think about it, 'winter' is both astronomical and meteorological. It functions by definition of the earth's orbit around the sun AND by climatic changes. As a case in point, the four seasons don't exist in tropical regions, despite their orbit being identical to those where they do.
I move in weather circles so I guess I'm not used to the rather quaint old idea of winter beginning with the solstice.
Winter in my book and most meteorologists' books is 01st December to end February = the three coldest months.
But, end of the shortest day, it's hair splitting. You call Dec 12th autumn, I call it winter. Ben Bradshaw calls it Advent, which is rather cute.
mr_claypole said: "Hmm this could go very pear shaped for Boris
Minority Labour administration propped up by confidence and supply from Libs SNP and one or two Alliance/SDLP from NI would be my bet for where this ends up."
Yep - I`ve posted similar sentiments on this forum a few times. This time Tories won`t (presumably) have the DUP.
The DUP will not trust Boris ever again.
In any case, there might be rather fewer MPs from the DUP in the next Parliament. With 72% of the Northern Irish now opposed to Brexit and even a plurality of unionists, they look vulnerable to a multi-pronged pincer movement.
- There will be lots of tactical voting - Momentum and youth activism will see Labour outperform their polls - Tories have no policies on house prices and student debt - Most important of all, Tories seem complacent
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
I think NOM will be favourite, but obviously hard to take seriously anyone who waffles on about chlorinated chicken and other conspiracy nonsense.
Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
Boris will go full on, all-out attack against Corbyn. "He wants to spend billions on nationalising the railways. I want to send billions on the NHS. You must decide - which gives YOU the better value for money?"
NHS Top Trumps railways every time.
Easy to counter that. "The Tories want to spend millions on US drug companies. We will spend millions on helping you."
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
Instinctively I agree with this, but I am concerned that with the DUP possibly opposing everything including extension, there is a chance that a hung parliament can lead to no deal, which neither Tory nor Labour governments would.
I fear that Boris with a large majority will lead to a No Deal and no FTA with the EU either. The No Dealers have only reluctantly agreed to Boris's deal because they feared getting no Brexit otherwise. With a large majority I fear they will revert to what they really want.
I think Boris always wanted a deal, he always said he wanted a deal and he has agreed a deal.
The no dealers are a tiny minority and have already signed up to Boris's deal. If Boris get a large majority on a basis of implementing his deal of course he will implement his deal and any naysayers would be sidelined.
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
I think anything could happen during this campaign. Well, not anything, but a lot of unexpected things.
Will Cummings be running the Tory election campaign?
Well Lynton Crosby won't be involved but I wouldnt be surprised to see Andrew Hirst who ran Sco Mo's succesful campaign get on board. You'd imagine Cummings will want plenty of control though, given how well he did in the ref he'd be looking forward to a Brexit election.
Why won't Crosby be involved? He's been involved both with the Tories and Boris in the past.
can't be sure but Harry Cole suggested the other month that him and Boris had parted ways.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No.
I will be challenging a Conservative or Labour Government from day one and I imagine our good friend @HYUFD will be on the barricades (verbally) if Labour were to win a majority and will be defending a Conservative Government to the hilt from said day.
Politics has a habit of surprising - if you had told a newly elected or re-elected Conservative MP on the night of Thatcher's third GE win in 1987 that not only would she be out within three and a half years but it would be the MPs themselves who would get rid of her, I doubt you'd have been given any credence.
All sounds quite tiring. I’m looking forward to sitting down with a cuppa and TMS in the new year rather than endless arguing about politics. (Cyclefree: look away, that’s a cricket reference).
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
I suspect there will be 3 or 4 different election campaigns run here.
Most people don’t care about Brexit, other than they wish it would go away.
Climate, the NHS, the economy, cost of childcare, Celtic nationalism.. all of those could take off in different ways as well.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
Ah, good point! In the astronomical definition you're absolutely right. December 21st is the start of winter, running to March 20th.
Meteorological winter is 01st December to end of February.
I think the voters will be more interested in the meteorological side of things as they battle their way to the polling station.
The campaign and associated wall to wall media coverage during the build up to the holidays will annoy people far more than having to go to vote.
21% Ipsos gap between leader satisfaction, same as 1987. Points to about 12% difference in the result, the relationship is pretty consistent over the years.
Or you can do it via net satisfied, 42 points difference. That's more like 97 or 83 (a little less though). Regression of those says 14% result gap.
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
That absolute majority of respondents who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson should worry the Conservatives. Are they going to be comfortable seeing him canter to an overall majority? And if not, what are they going to do?
So where is the value likely to be in the betting? Fewer LibDem seats than hyped? Undercooked SNP? Fewer Tories Han hyped?
Start from the principle that no one knows anything, then look to see what received wisdom is on any particular subject, then bet against it.
Yes that seems right. I’ve made more than I should have trading in and out of election dates, and the Labour Gvt/Labour majority odds seem destined to come in.
I guess we’ll know more when we know when things like the debates are (they tend to increase volatility) and one would hope some complex polling will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
HYUFD fondly reminds us of his one happy call, so I thought I'd immodestly mention 6 months ago that I posted here that we'd have to have an autumn election. Technically this is a winter election.
Set that against my less felicitous tips. Ken Clarke as PM being one such
And as I'm also fond of pointing out, if you try often enough eventually you'll stick the donkey's tail on the correct spot.
Isn't this technically an autumn election?
No. Autum starts on the 1st September and finishes on the 30th November. Three months for each. (Don't get me started on this. My wife and I argue every three months. She views the seasons as 21st December to 20th March for winter... and so on.... we laugh now... mostly) And as for my brother's insane approach to the seasons (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb - Winter, Mar, Apr - Spring.. etc)......
Your wife is right for two reasons.
1: Winter begins with the winter solstice 2: She is your wife, she is always right, did you not get the memo?
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
Probably.
It seems recently the polls have alternated error. Hopefully the pattern continues
Pre-2010: Underestimated Labour Pre-2015: Underestimated Tories Pre-2017: Understimated Labour Pre-2019: ???
There's a touch more subtlety to it than that.
The final polls of 2010 were pretty much bang on, with errors not much larger than MOE and a tendency to over-estimate the lib dems and underestimate both others, although Labour more than Tory. The polls, however, were not static through the campaign - the Cleggasm.
The polls of 2015 were remarkably static through the campaign but were systemically out - Tories were probably comfortably ahead from around the Newark by-election. Note that the Tories were underestimated by almost twice the amount that Labour were over-estimated.
2017? Yes, the polls before the campaign missed their mark but the final polls were accurate for Tories and Lib Dems. Its UKIP and Others that are over-estimated.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
Instinctively I agree with this, but I am concerned that with the DUP possibly opposing everything including extension, there is a chance that a hung parliament can lead to no deal, which neither Tory nor Labour governments would.
I fear that Boris with a large majority will lead to a No Deal and no FTA with the EU either. The No Dealers have only reluctantly agreed to Boris's deal because they feared getting no Brexit otherwise. With a large majority I fear they will revert to what they really want.
No chance. A large majority that owe their seats to Boris will not have to rely on the Spartans. I actually think the bigger the Tory majority the more room Boris has to move bacl to the centre in tye FTA.
- There will be lots of tactical voting - Momentum and youth activism will see Labour outperform their polls - Tories have no policies on house prices and student debt - Most important of all, Tories seem complacent
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
I think anything could happen during this campaign. Well, not anything, but a lot of unexpected things.
Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
Boris will go full on, all-out attack against Corbyn. "He wants to spend billions on nationalising the railways. I want to send billions on the NHS. You must decide - which gives YOU the better value for money?"
NHS Top Trumps railways every time.
Easy to counter that. "The Tories want to spend millions on US drug companies. We will spend millions on helping you."
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
Thought you were smarter than buying that line.
Farage is the guy who would sell out the NHS.
We've just had a poll showing most voters are not as smart as you but their votes still count.
Fwiw, unfortunately from a Labour POV (for now), I think YouGov are the 'gold standard'. They didn't do too badly in the 2017 election; although their final poll showed a sudden move to a Tory 7-point lead, their polls before that had generally been showing 3-5% leads, much better than a lot of the other pollsters. And they got this year's Euros almost spot-on.
Will Cummings be running the Tory election campaign?
Well Lynton Crosby won't be involved but I wouldnt be surprised to see Andrew Hirst who ran Sco Mo's succesful campaign get on board. You'd imagine Cummings will want plenty of control though, given how well he did in the ref he'd be looking forward to a Brexit election.
Why won't Crosby be involved? He's been involved both with the Tories and Boris in the past.
can't be sure but Harry Cole suggested the other month that him and Boris had parted ways.
Won't stop a phone call to get him back involved again if both are interested.
21% Ipsos gap between leader satisfaction, same as 1987. Points to about 12% difference in the result, the relationship is pretty consistent over the years.
Or you can do it via net satisfied, 42 points difference. That's more like 97 or 83 (a little less though). Regression of those says 14% result gap.
The group I think quite a bit about are the 30+% (possibly 40+% if the don't knows on both sides overlap) of people who are dissatisfied with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn:
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
That absolute majority of respondents who are dissatisfied with Boris Johnson should worry the Conservatives. Are they going to be comfortable seeing him canter to an overall majority? And if not, what are they going to do?
I can never divine what these things mean. Who is satisfied in Boris but dissatisfied in the Government? Does that imply some see Parliament as “Government” and him as “change”? Hard to know.
So where is the value likely to be in the betting? Fewer LibDem seats than hyped? Undercooked SNP? Fewer Tories Han hyped?
Start from the principle that no one knows anything, then look to see what received wisdom is on any particular subject, then bet against it.
Yes that seems right. I’ve made more than I should have trading in and out of election dates, and the Labour Gvt/Labour majority odds seem destined to come in.
I guess we’ll know more when we know when things like the debates are (they tend to increase volatility) and one would hope some complex polling will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
One of my better bits of betting advice was on Saturday, when I pointed out that the drift of prices for 2019 seemed overdone. Umbrellas are cheapest when it doesn't look like rain.
I see NOM has come in a tadge (from 2.32 yday to 2.22 now).
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
So where is the value likely to be in the betting? Fewer LibDem seats than hyped? Undercooked SNP? Fewer Tories Han hyped?
Start from the principle that no one knows anything, then look to see what received wisdom is on any particular subject, then bet against it.
Yes that seems right. I’ve made more than I should have trading in and out of election dates, and the Labour Gvt/Labour majority odds seem destined to come in.
I guess we’ll know more when we know when things like the debates are (they tend to increase volatility) and one would hope some complex polling will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
One of my better bits of betting advice was on Saturday, when I pointed out that the drift of prices for 2019 seemed overdone. Umbrellas are cheapest when it doesn't look like rain.
Nevertheless buying a cheap umbrella doesn’t guarantee rain.
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
Probably.
It seems recently the polls have alternated error. Hopefully the pattern continues
Pre-2010: Underestimated Labour Pre-2015: Underestimated Tories Pre-2017: Understimated Labour Pre-2019: ???
There's a touch more subtlety to it than that.
The final polls of 2010 were pretty much bang on, with errors not much larger than MOE and a tendency to over-estimate the lib dems and underestimate both others, although Labour more than Tory. The polls, however, were not static through the campaign - the Cleggasm.
The polls of 2015 were remarkably static through the campaign but were systemically out - Tories were probably comfortably ahead from around the Newark by-election. Note that the Tories were underestimated by almost twice the amount that Labour were over-estimated.
2017? Yes, the polls before the campaign missed their mark but the final polls were accurate for Tories and Lib Dems. Its UKIP and Others that are over-estimated.
If you have a choice for lunch: sandwich, sushi or soup ...
Then I would vote sushi. However if it comes 5 votes soup, 2 votes sushi, 4 votes sandwich then I accept that soup was the most popular option in that vote . . . even if I and the other sushi voter may have had sandwich as their second choice it isn't what we chose.
Would you not wish to clarify the type of soup before voting for sushi?
French onion is one thing, for example, but oxtail is something else. Or it could be mulligatawny.
Wouldn’t it be a blessed relief if the election sees a government elected with a stable majority, promises not to hold any referenda on anything ever and we can all switch off, safe in the knowledge the die is cast for the next 4-5 years no matter what we think or do.
No. The next government, whichever it is, will almost certainly do great harm if it has a substantial majority. The only question is what harm.
Agree wholeheartedly.
A hung Parliament is my hope with both Corbyn and Johnson out on their ear.
Instinctively I agree with this, but I am concerned that with the DUP possibly opposing everything including extension, there is a chance that a hung parliament can lead to no deal, which neither Tory nor Labour governments would.
I fear that Boris with a large majority will lead to a No Deal and no FTA with the EU either. The No Dealers have only reluctantly agreed to Boris's deal because they feared getting no Brexit otherwise. With a large majority I fear they will revert to what they really want.
No chance. A large majority that owe their seats to Boris will not have to rely on the Spartans. I actually think the bigger the Tory majority the more room Boris has to move bacl to the centre in tye FTA.
Maybe.
Depends on who those new MPs are. My feeling is that a No Deal Brexit / Britain having nothing to do with the EU and focusing on the US belief has now entered the Tory party's soul and Boris, even if he wanted to - and I have my doubts that he does - will do nothing to steer it back.
He will ride the tiger rather than try to control it.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
The Tories are probably clever enough not to make the same mistakes Mrs May made in 2017. But that doesn't mean they won't make a lot of different mistakes.
Probably.
It seems recently the polls have alternated error. Hopefully the pattern continues
Pre-2010: Underestimated Labour Pre-2015: Underestimated Tories Pre-2017: Understimated Labour Pre-2019: ???
There's a touch more subtlety to it than that.
The final polls of 2010 were pretty much bang on, with errors not much larger than MOE and a tendency to over-estimate the lib dems and underestimate both others, although Labour more than Tory. The polls, however, were not static through the campaign - the Cleggasm.
The polls of 2015 were remarkably static through the campaign but were systemically out - Tories were probably comfortably ahead from around the Newark by-election. Note that the Tories were underestimated by almost twice the amount that Labour were over-estimated.
2017? Yes, the polls before the campaign missed their mark but the final polls were accurate for Tories and Lib Dems. Its UKIP and Others that are over-estimated.
*stick to final polls *look at both sides of the coin
Yes, it is the mid term hypothetical polls that are the putaways. Betting on the back of them would see a massive loss compared to results in the last decade or so. As the Election gets nearer, the polls get more accurate because more normal people who aren't obsessed with politics have a view,and they balance out the political obsessives guesses as to what might happen.
Close to 2015 GE the polls swung quite markedly to the Cons, and I backed Con Minority as a result!
Pre Jo Cox's murder, Leave were gaining in the polls, and Labour closed the gap in 2017. It is the pre campaign polls that are not worth looking at.
How much squeezing can we see happening in a GE now?
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
Have you considered that the LDs might squeeze Labour?
No
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
I think anything could happen during this campaign. Well, not anything, but a lot of unexpected things.
That’s not the traditional politicalbetting approach.
I think standard procedure is for all of us to outline various credible campaign events that lead to differing outcomes, so at least one of us can look clever after the results.
So where is the value likely to be in the betting? Fewer LibDem seats than hyped? Undercooked SNP? Fewer Tories Han hyped?
Start from the principle that no one knows anything, then look to see what received wisdom is on any particular subject, then bet against it.
Yes that seems right. I’ve made more than I should have trading in and out of election dates, and the Labour Gvt/Labour majority odds seem destined to come in.
I guess we’ll know more when we know when things like the debates are (they tend to increase volatility) and one would hope some complex polling will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
One of my better bits of betting advice was on Saturday, when I pointed out that the drift of prices for 2019 seemed overdone. Umbrellas are cheapest when it doesn't look like rain.
Nevertheless buying a cheap umbrella doesn’t guarantee rain.
As ever, one simply has to avoid spending more on one’s umbrella collection than one can afford to lose. Whenever I wish I’d bet substantially more on a winner I remind myself of the poo I had to climb out of on election night 2017 (the odds on a Labour Gvt that night coming in the next day mostly saved me).
Corbyn is going to be box office again. That doesn't mean he will win much but this is going to be exciting. He'll be pumped with a really radical agenda and I think he will do enough to deprive Johnson of an outright.
Things like nationalisation of the railways will hit a huge spot.
Just my take.
Boris will go full on, all-out attack against Corbyn. "He wants to spend billions on nationalising the railways. I want to send billions on the NHS. You must decide - which gives YOU the better value for money?"
NHS Top Trumps railways every time.
Easy to counter that. "The Tories want to spend millions on US drug companies. We will spend millions on helping you."
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
Thought you were smarter than buying that line.
Farage is the guy who would sell out the NHS.
Not in the popular imagination he's not. Same with the Cons and defence. Cons could cut our entire armed services leaving only a mini metro-mounted airgun and they would still be perceived as the party which protects our armed forces and sound on defence.
So where is the value likely to be in the betting? Fewer LibDem seats than hyped? Undercooked SNP? Fewer Tories Han hyped?
Start from the principle that no one knows anything, then look to see what received wisdom is on any particular subject, then bet against it.
Yes that seems right. I’ve made more than I should have trading in and out of election dates, and the Labour Gvt/Labour majority odds seem destined to come in.
I guess we’ll know more when we know when things like the debates are (they tend to increase volatility) and one would hope some complex polling will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
One of my better bits of betting advice was on Saturday, when I pointed out that the drift of prices for 2019 seemed overdone. Umbrellas are cheapest when it doesn't look like rain.
It’s really annoying to have to shred my beautiful all-green post 2019 GE position, but I have.
I should end up about £250 up (as opposed to over £600 up) but it’s still a nice profit and a bird in the hand.
If you have a choice for lunch: sandwich, sushi or soup ...
Then I would vote sushi. However if it comes 5 votes soup, 2 votes sushi, 4 votes sandwich then I accept that soup was the most popular option in that vote . . . even if I and the other sushi voter may have had sandwich as their second choice it isn't what we chose.
Would you not wish to clarify the type of soup before voting for sushi?
French onion is one thing, for example, but oxtail is something else. Or it could be mulligatawny.
I'm not a big soup fan either way and I love sushi, but if you want to campaign for soup before I vote I'm OK with that.
EDIT: On the other hand one of the best meals I've ever had in my life was an Icelandic Soup in Rekjavik that included all kinds of seafood. It was to die for, incredible!
Comments
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1183716749088296960
What are they going to do in an election? We have no sense of intensity of dissatisfaction on both sides from these figures. But that intensity question may be very important indeed in the coming weeks.
Winter begins on 21 Dec and ends on 21 March.
Minority Labour administration propped up by confidence and supply from Libs SNP and one or two Alliance/SDLP from NI would be my bet for where this ends up."
Yep - I`ve posted similar sentiments on this forum a few times. This time Tories won`t (presumably) have the DUP.
Obvs Tories can squeeze BXP a bit more, and Lab can squeeze Greens and maybe some Nats in Wales, but I think the big question is who can squeeze LD votes more? Tories who want Cameroon voters who are afraid of Corbyn or Labour who want voters who dislike Johnson?
My tuppence is Labour will squeeze LDs more than Tories do, but both will squeeze them a bit. I think a hung parliament is likely, with Tories largest party but unable to govern. Probs another GE before June 2020.
"That joke isn't funny any more...."
Win power and she is in Cabinet.
Lose, and she is in running for Jezza's job.
It seems recently the polls have alternated error. Hopefully the pattern continues
Pre-2010: Underestimated Labour
Pre-2015: Underestimated Tories
Pre-2017: Understimated Labour
Pre-2019: ???
Railway nationalisation is really quite popular. Cosying up to Trump and greedy US drug companies is not.
EG OMRLP, independent, LDs, UKIP, BXP
I'm now going to have to sign up to the BXP to get their material. It could be really important.
Now where is that nose-peg?
If he agrees its game on!
But I suppose the letter saga already demonstrated that...
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-s-conservatives-hire-kiwi-gurus-who-worked-on-morrison-s-shock-win-20191008-p52yia.html
Edit: To be less flippant; not on a national level. Maybe in certain seats, but I would assume Lab will squeeze at a national level overall.
This is the endgame. I think he'll want to delay it until the New Year if he can [I don't know anything about his medical condition]
(Don't get me started on this. My wife and I argue every three months. She views the seasons as 21st December to 20th March for winter... and so on.... we laugh now... mostly)
And as for my brother's insane approach to the seasons (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb - Winter, Mar, Apr - Spring.. etc)......
I suspect not with current polling.
For me this is a no-brainer. For all Cons out there - you heard it here first. Watch with horror as Lab momentum (both small and large "m") takes hold and a wave of anti-Boris, anti-Big Business, anti-austerity, anti-chlorinated chicken feeling takes hold and it ends up being a damned close run thing.
If you stop for a second and think about it, 'winter' is both astronomical and meteorological. It functions by definition of the earth's orbit around the sun AND by climatic changes. As a case in point, the four seasons don't exist in tropical regions, despite their orbit being identical to those where they do.
I move in weather circles so I guess I'm not used to the rather quaint old idea of winter beginning with the solstice.
Winter in my book and most meteorologists' books is 01st December to end February = the three coldest months.
But, end of the shortest day, it's hair splitting. You call Dec 12th autumn, I call it winter. Ben Bradshaw calls it Advent, which is rather cute.
- There will be lots of tactical voting
- Momentum and youth activism will see Labour outperform their polls
- Tories have no policies on house prices and student debt
- Most important of all, Tories seem complacent
Farage is the guy who would sell out the NHS.
https://twitter.com/alexhern/status/1189130693567303680
Link to the affected (and pregnant mother), whose thread started this.
https://twitter.com/Manda_like_wine/status/1186574340541825024
The no dealers are a tiny minority and have already signed up to Boris's deal. If Boris get a large majority on a basis of implementing his deal of course he will implement his deal and any naysayers would be sidelined.
Most people don’t care about Brexit, other than they wish it would go away.
Climate, the NHS, the economy, cost of childcare, Celtic nationalism.. all of those could take off in different ways as well.
No, I said he gets....
I guess we’ll know more when we know when things like the debates are (they tend to increase volatility) and one would hope some complex polling will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
1: Winter begins with the winter solstice
2: She is your wife, she is always right, did you not get the memo?
The final polls of 2010 were pretty much bang on, with errors not much larger than MOE and a tendency to over-estimate the lib dems and underestimate both others, although Labour more than Tory. The polls, however, were not static through the campaign - the Cleggasm.
See here:
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/accuracy-of-the-final-polls/
The polls of 2015 were remarkably static through the campaign but were systemically out - Tories were probably comfortably ahead from around the Newark by-election. Note that the Tories were underestimated by almost twice the amount that Labour were over-estimated.
See here:
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/general-election-7-may-2015/
2017? Yes, the polls before the campaign missed their mark but the final polls were accurate for Tories and Lib Dems. Its UKIP and Others that are over-estimated.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/general-election-8-june-2017/
Summary
*stick to final polls
*look at both sides of the coin
Banter era politics.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-nhs-us-trump-trade-deal-brexit-poll-a9173761.html
French onion is one thing, for example, but oxtail is something else. Or it could be mulligatawny.
Depends on who those new MPs are. My feeling is that a No Deal Brexit / Britain having nothing to do with the EU and focusing on the US belief has now entered the Tory party's soul and Boris, even if he wanted to - and I have my doubts that he does - will do nothing to steer it back.
He will ride the tiger rather than try to control it.
You book a seat, you get the seat. You sit in the wrong seat? You move when the right person arrives*. I've never seen anything as jaw-dropping as that.
*I mean, you can work out what seats have not been taken and safely sit in them but, with things like split ticketing, always book in advance, always book a seat.
Close to 2015 GE the polls swung quite markedly to the Cons, and I backed Con Minority as a result!
Pre Jo Cox's murder, Leave were gaining in the polls, and Labour closed the gap in 2017. It is the pre campaign polls that are not worth looking at.
I think standard procedure is for all of us to outline various credible campaign events that lead to differing outcomes, so at least one of us can look clever after the results.
He'll be safely on his allotment by January if the polls are even remotely correct on his ratings.
HYPERBOLE KLAXON
I should end up about £250 up (as opposed to over £600 up) but it’s still a nice profit and a bird in the hand.
EDIT: On the other hand one of the best meals I've ever had in my life was an Icelandic Soup in Rekjavik that included all kinds of seafood. It was to die for, incredible!