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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling finds fewer than 1 in 4 think that Brexit will happen by Jan 31st 2020
The latest extension of the Article 50 process is the third time this has happened and, as the latest YouGov polling shows, just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/28/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election
The only real changes from last time are Johnson got more buy in from whipless Tories but lost the DUP. So little gain overall.
Polly Toynbee"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/election-boris-johnson-tories-labour
This thread seems to be a case of the wish being father to the thought, at least on current polling.
For some reason it doesn't mention that Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition are polling about 15-20 points lower than they were at the last election, when they were still 60 seats behind the Conservatives. That, surely, is the salient feature of the political scene at the moment. It could evaporate during the campaign, or it could not reflect what will actually happen, but all analyses should surely start from this fact?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0009tvn/newsnight-28102019
"Can someone explain why there's such a ding dong over 9th Dec and 12th Dec cause I can't work it out?"
...........................................................................................
Obviously they want a different festive ding dong merrily on high general election ....
If passed it would be adequate progressive cover for opposition parties delivering Boris' election. If defeated it provides the SNP and Lib Dems cover to pull the plug if they've got cold feet. Votes at 16 from next May delivers most of the oppositions bang for their buck while avoiding the smell of altering the franchise just weeks before a vote.
Doesn’t he realise Polly won’t write her own headlines ?
French referee for the final:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/oct/29/rugby-world-cup-final-referee-jerome-garces
Does anyone have the timings for the HoC day?
Doesn't he realise that there is at least a sporting chance that headlines for Polly's pieces will accurately summarise the contents of Polly's pieces, irrespective of who writes them?
Or that he could read the piece in question and learn they this is in fact the case here?
Ah, my coat...
Watching the statement last night there seemed genuine and wide spread unease on the Tory backbenches about the Government pulling the WAIB and from Labour MPs who'd voted for 2nd Reading. We'll have to see if what Boris has promised the SNP/LDs to get their support doesn't repel enough Tories to make it pointless.
The fact the Government isn't publishing the bill till this morning, the same day it will clear the Commons, was also winding up many MPs.
Honestly if the world cup final was between France and Wales I'd be cheering for France.
I think the reason they're not publishing it until this morning is because they may have reached an overnight deal with the LibDems & SNP?
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188947840262955008?s=20
We may end up praising the ERG as putting the national interest first.
'something to ease Brexit depressions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50127713, an app to solve political disagreements'
What was striking was that there wasn't a single LD MP in the chamber for the Rees-Mogg statement and only a handful of SNP MP with Wishart not Blackford leading.
You could read that erie absence as either a sign they were all off negotiating behind the scenes or the wheels were coming off.
Brexit and its aftermath might finish the Tories off, for their historic crime of leading the country astray with lies and false visions. In their victory may be their demise.
I think the electorate will conspire to deprive Boris of a majority and we’ll have a even more hung Parliament that the one we currently have.
I really hope I’m wrong.
To be fair, she was once partnered up with Mark Clarke. That would mess anyone up.
Can’t Her Majesty take it into her own hands and dissolve this rotten and indecisive Parliament once and for all?
The one-line bill becomes an Act and fixes the date, meaning No Deal comes off the table and the WAB falls.
So whilst it's easy to lash-out on social media, it's also lazy thinking.
Boris acts like one, although he's too dishonest and otherwise flawed. Countries casting about like Britain is at the moment need to have a care who they decide has emerged as leader; see Germany in the early 30's.
Made my day.
Extraordinary that people believe before Jan 31st is ahead of Jan 31st exactly. Surely even this wretched govt wouldnt try and do Brexit on new years day?
Guess they did think April Fools Day and Haloween were suitable.
To be honest I’m just in it for the ‘bantz’ right now.
Both are likely to affect evening turnout.
In effect 60% of the electorate is *very* open to three little words.
" Don't trust him "
" Not his Brexit "
If those arguments land then it comes down to whether that 60% can organise itself tactically to block his majority.
That's not a prediction - who makes those these days - just an observation your senario is highly credible and currently underpriced imho.
Totally irrelevant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50184281
One big plus is that Cummings knows more about campaign governance and data than virtually anyone else.
Provided he’s restrained from venting expletives in the headlines every day, that’s a huge advantage.
Heads Corbyn needs them for confidence and supply
Tails the Tories win and a big boost for indyref2.
But perhaps I’m giving Mr. Wickham too much credit.
Celtic, Arsenal, wolves and Man United all play on Thursday Dec 12th night.
Mon 9th has West Ham vs Arsenal, but that is an easier fixture to move.
Every day it was worse, more cringeworthy and painful.
However, if 'we' decide to take Brexit off the table for 6-12 months, like you I'd go for some form of citizens assembly.
The risk comes if Conservative+DUP have a majority against extension, thus emboldening the ERG to join the DUP to vote against the deal in favour of no deal.
However, that behaviour might provoke different Conservative MPs into rebelling for an extension in order to save the deal.
I assume the Tory manifesto with more police, schools and hospitals is ready and waiting.
BoZo also has to defend his crap deal, and there will be plenty of forensic exposure of issues, such as last nights Dispatches programme. He is not good at detail and policy. Waffle and Bluster will not do.
https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1189081269533061120?s=21
Could a section 30 deal ever be cooked up between SNP and the Tories ?