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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a December general election is now even
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a December general election is now evens favourite
As can be seen from the betdata.io chart there’s an increasing belief amongst punters that there will be a December general election.
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It's basically a proxy bet on what comes out of Paris tomorrow
But why would any of the parties want a campaign straddling Xmas?
The WAB isn't going to pass and we aren't going to ND so why delay the election until January...makes no sense.
1. Until we know the Tory rebel and DUP position we still don't know if the Swinson/Blackford gambit gives Boris a majority in the Commons. Passing a ' not withstanding ' Act could still be difficult and it will be a Christmas Tree Bill for opposition and Lords amendments seeking to make Swinson/Blackford look bad for rushing through Tory legislation. The SNP have no peers.
2. Corbyn can counter move by simply signalling he'll let rebel Labour MPs progress the WAIB. Only a few more days of scrutiny closes off a December 12th election.
3. I'm still puzzled at the Chemistry of the Lib Dems and SNP delivering Boris' Christmas present even if the Physics now work. If Boris accepts the Swinson/Blackford offer it could all still get bogged down in detail.
That said Swinson/Blackford + the EUCO decision clearly justifies the price move on volatile Betfair.
https://twitter.com/RealDealBeal23/status/1188623160352092162
Apparently the crowd are favouring "lock him up".
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/oct/28/some-parts-of-uk-ageing-twice-as-fast-as-others-new-research-finds
1. I can't force the WAIB on to the table.
2. Even if Johnson does table it, if I submit any wrecking amendments it will get pulled.
3. I could run down the clock to 31/01 and try and go for Benn II but the EU might refuse a further extension risking no deal, or humiliating pleading to Johnson to allow a vote on the WAIB.
4. If I am in a remain seat then I could be ok at a pre-Brexit GE and there is a chance of parliament returning with a majority for R2.
5. If I am in a heavily leave seat i'd probably be getting similar MPs together and publicly calling for parliament to put the country first and vote through the WAIB unamended. Then hope voters have moved on to domestic issues at the next GE.
6. The Hail Mary of R2 or revoke don't have parliamentary support and would leave me extremely vulnerable to voter rage at the subsequent GE.
All roads seem to lead to a pre-Brexit GE.
DUP oppose.
LibDems want an election (though they might do better calling for an election than actually having one, as they might lose many of their defectors).
SNP wants an election to clean up in Scotland.
Conservatives need an election before Brexit, yet need to be seen to be pressing for Brexit against Parliament in order to see off the Brexit Party. The risk is losing a dozen seats to the SNP even before getting to England and Wales.
Labour does what?
And there might be a reason the Conservatives do not want to publish OBR forecasts.
The OBR had already started work on a fiscal and economic outlook to be published alongside the Chancellor's spending plans. Economists expected this to show a major deterioration in the public finances which could harm the Tories' reputation for managing Britain's books.
MPs and former top Treasury official Lord Nick Macpherson questioned if the Budget was called off to avoid negative headlines from the bleak update.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/25/publish-forecast-anyway-no-budget-mps-pressure-obr-reveal-economic/
Judging by the overnight coverage I'd say the December election, and specifically Dec 9th, is better than evens. I'm glad I got on this market a few weeks ago. Odds at the time were very favourable.
I suspect Labour may have to fall in line with the LibDem-SNP bill or they really will look like they are running scared. I also don't think there will be any amendments, or any that succeed.
"The EU is preparing to sign off on a Brexit extension to 31 January 2020 with an option for the UK to leave earlier if a deal is ratified, according to a leaked draft of the agreement seen by the Guardian."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/27/brexit-eu-prepares-grant-uk-three-month-extension
"Boris Johnson is increasingly confident of forcing a December general election after signalling he would accept a Brexit compromise put forward by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/27/lib-dems-offer-prime-minister-route-election/
Looking ahead, Brexit, if it does happen, could get very unpopular indeed quite quickly.
The Nato summit is an added complication, hence Monday December 9th.
https://www.politico.eu/article/league-wins-landslide-victory-in-italian-regional-election/
It might be that it is just to be different but am I missing something?
Its not like that could ever happen here....
Allegations by Panorama that EY as auditors helped to conceal $4bn of gold sales that were laundering drug profits. If true what the hell was going on in such a well run, establishment auditor? Quite bizarre.
Mr. JS, I saw that yesterday. Staggeringly level of bullshit from the Washington Post. The wretch in question led a genocidal organisation that crucified children and burnt prisoners alive.
He wasn't a stern Oxford don.
So the differences are the Lib Dem/SNP plan 1. Legally guarentees the date. 2. Kills the WAIB ensuring the entire Brexit issue is unresolved on polling day.
"The auditors discovered that Kaloti had paid out a total of $5.2bn (£4bn) in cash in 2012, but failed to report suspicious activity to the money laundering authorities."
Compare with Gordon Brown's sale of half the UK's gold reserves:
"Between 1999 and 2002 the Treasury sold 401 tonnes of gold - out of its 715-tonne holding - at an average price of $275 an ounce, generating about $3.5bn during the period."
Liverpool?
Labour's election strategy is going to be fun. What is their strategy? Target winning 80-odd seats it needs for a majority? Target 50 to become the largest party (even though it will have to work with the LibDems/SNP)? Or given its reputed internal polling, forget gains and try and save what it has got?
Labour could easily find that the great bulk of the money it spends at the coming election has been spaffed up a wall.
Tories are reportedly focussing on gaining 40. The LibDems perhaps somewhat less.
I’ve said for some time the Big 4 are effectively a cosy cartel, and very well-connected ones too, that lock out many far better British SMEs. But, I can’t see it changing any time soon.
Too many vested interests.
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
Durham? Maybe one seat.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/10/mexico-post-race-analysis-2019.html
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1188717516375416832?s=20
https://twitter.com/rymmomtaz/status/1188712977337405441?s=21
The only way to a second vote is through an election, this parliament will never vote for that and even if it did who would enact the legislation.
So all this bile directed at Jo Swinson is ridiculous. If anyone is messing up the the Remain cause it’s Labour , without an election there is a good chance the deal will eventually get through .
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1188575702175698946?s=20
From my experience I would say that there is no reason to think the other major firms are any different. The Cartel needs to be broken up.
If anything it shows huge integrity.
"The ethics committee launched an inquiry after conservative blog RedState reported allegations that Ms Hill had an affair with one of her congressional aides, a man.
The same blog separately reported claims that Ms Hill, who is bisexual, had also engaged in a three-way consensual romance with a female campaign staff member and her husband. It published naked images of the politician."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50203735
And as the series of tweets show , the French didn’t want to be blamed for a no deal.
How much more would our gold be worth had Brown not done that then?
Why on earth did she allow naked photos of herself ?
And, although many seem to find this shocking, also know astonishingly little about the businesses and industries they advise or audit as well.
Labour’s best shot is to allow Brexit through and then seek to get elected on the back of the ensuing economic damage. That would push the LibDems to relying upon “we told you so”, which is rarely a sound basis for an election.
Going for an early election is the LibDems’ best shot. It’s the only chance of stopping Brexit and the best chance of shafting Labour - which is still a requirement for their best long term political strategy. The LibDems can never become the party of the working class but they can become the party of the young - which is how the country is now polarising as per the ageing article someone linked downthread.
There is a clear risk of a 1983 type result, allowing Brexit to proceed, but that’s not really worse an outcome than Brexit proceeding prior to an election. And running Labour close or beating them could set in chain the long awaited realignment of the left.
A December election with its weather and dark evenings handicaps Labour’s advantage of activists on the ground. And a pre-Brexit vote puts maximum pressure on Tory remainers.
The only chance of delaying Brexit is to throw all the pieces in the air and see how they fall. Likely to be unsuccessful though, as even a messy mix of MPs isn't going to lead the EU to think we are going to be a settled member of The Project. We are best let go.
1. Both parties set to make gains in an election
2. Both parties happy to demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election
3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit
4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go
5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
Or he rejects 12th, gives the Tories a chance to go for 9th, pre-Brexit, or to dig in, but it out of his control and LD/SNP get the electoral consequence of the deal not going through.
You don't remember the Murraymints add, do you? I can still whistle it.
Admittedly, they didn't pre-announce the scale of their sales so as to help crash the market!
It’s the last roll of the dice . Better to have a small chance than none at all.
So around $15.5bn ?
You’ve seen the deal , it’s your call that or Revoke.
Barrow is hyper marginal. The situation with John Woodcock is a complicating factor. Will he stand ? Will he get any votes if he does ? And who will he take them from ? I think the honest answer is no one knows. Labour's local government base has held up well.
Westmorland and Lonsdale is slightly different having been Conservative 1832 to 2005. South Lakeland DC was also very unusual in the area in voting Remain. I think the key issue is whether Farron's renewed relentless local focus post leadership will repair his radically reduced majority.
Copeland has already gone to the Tories at the 2017 by-election so wouldn't be a gain. But it is a ' Cummings ' seat in it was Labour for 70 years and has seen slow but relentless demographic change. The Independent elected Mayor was reelected in a landslide in May and is less than subtly using his bully pulpit to boost the Tory incumbent. Though Labour have a majority of councillors still and the Labour PPC is high calibre.
Those four Cumbrian seats but especially the three coastal heavily Leave ones are a microcosm of the Cummings strategy.
And it beats hanging around waiting for something to turn up, which has been the default mode of British politics for the last three years.
As I said yesterday a Boris majority government taking us out on the 1st January 2020, in accordance of the likely EU response to the Benn letter, is fine by me but also a summer 2020 referendum is also fine by me and I would accept the result without dissent
Oral questions
Home Affairs (including Topical Questions)
Motion
Early Parliamentary General Election
Legislation
Environment Bill: 2nd reading
Motion
Section 3(2) of the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2019
Adjournment
Provision of the service by Southern Water in Tunbridge Wells constituency"
https://www.parliament.uk/business/commons/
The combining of the words Lib Dems and Integrity creates an oxymoron of the highest order.
The game therefore is ensuring their seats swing to other remain parties rather than other leave parties. And the 19 Labour MPs not only allowed to vote for the WA but in one case continuing to be a shadow minister without any sanctions at all HAS spooked remain parties - you want proof that Corbyn is happy to let Brexit happen here it is.
That is going to be the message you hear on every doorstep conversation from ANY of the remain parties in any seat. If you have a remain Labour MP it doesn't matter what they say look at what they do. Labour would negotiate a deal to leave the EU and if you think you can trust the party to back remain in the confirmatory referendum on their deal look to the 19 MPs who backed Johnson's WA with Corbyn's blessing.
You might be picking up dissident Tory votes instead? But certainly you're putting off the tactical Labour vote, and I suspect that's why the LibDem score in most polls is off the boil.
Kudos.
https://www.ft.com/content/89305db0-fed6-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e
She will do better than farron did, but will be similarly disappointed. Tories are already getting hubristic, and labour will use that to recover position just like last time.not quite as effectively I'd bet, but well enough.
Once the government finds that it doesn't need an asset it should sell it. Guessing what's going up and what's going down isn't its job, and there's no reason why it should be better at it than the markets.