That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
I do wonder whether the Lords will let the Swinson plan through. If parliament passes duly considered legislation that it thinks elections should require a 2/3rds majority, it's not really clear that it should be able to just pick that lock, or if it does, that it should be able to do so in a hurry and without reasonable discussion. Although I'd rather it passed it feels like the job of the upper house to at least slow this kind of thing down.
It does make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act so, on the "don't take the piss" principle, you could see it struck down, at least in theory.
The Lords could argue that HMG should proceed with the WAIB on a longer timetable for scrutiny and doesn't require an election since there was a comfortable majority at Second Reading. I'd be surprised if they did block it though.
Assuming GE is in short-term ish, the likely result, is Tories winning most seats but with no majority. This time they are unlikely to get DUP support (and if they do at what financial cost?).
However, despite appearances we shall not be exactly in the same place that we are now. This is because CP will not be able to command a majority and cannot therefore form a government.
This leaves two possibilities:
1) no majority can be formed by any party/s (presumably a second GE) 2) Labour form majority either with LD/SNP coalition or S&C arrangement. Corbyn is likely PM.
God, I wish this nightmare would end.
Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end. Brexit done by Christmas.
MarqueeMark said: "That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum."
I doubt that this is true. I think that if HOC decided that a ref is to happen the EU would be keen to amend the date again!
So it looks like brave Mr Glenn is on the brink of winning his bet.....?
Let's hope he can track down the counterparty.
If Boris was to win the election with a majority its possible we could have legislation passed and leave by 31st December?
Would be very tight, if they haven't started on the WAIB before the election, what with (presumably) another QS, and the looming Xmas recess. Business would welcome the additional time to prepare and I'd have thought a victorious Boris would stick with the January date? He has nothing more to gain in that scenario by bringing it forward and plopping our exit into the holiday period.
MarqueeMark said: "Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
No because if by a miracle Labour win or can form an agreement with others then a second vote would be held . The EU would grant a further extension .
There was never going to be a second vote with the current parliament so for Remainers it’s still a very low chance but higher than the current zero chance.
MarqueeMark said: "Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
Saying it will end when so little has actually been decided about our future relationship would be utterly dishonest.
Doubtless this is therefore what Bozo will try to do.
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
100 would surely be enough to deprive Johnson of a majority? Job done and we'd have a Remainer government. Albeit an unpredictable one.
I can’t see it unfortunately. I think the vote will be spread too thin.
That's the key isn't it?
Ideally the LibDems need a 50% share in 100 seats and less than 5% share in 500 seats (to avoid splitting the anti-Tory vote). That means a 12.5% share nationally.
This shows how misleading the raw poll share can be. Perhaps we should pay more attention to the regional shares (but smaller samples). We really need some constituency polling.
As an LD, I was initially slightly puzzled by the LD/SNP plans but it works if you believe there is, if not enthusiasm then at least a willingness to concede that a new Parliament is necessary to move things forward.
For those on the Remain side, it's a big risk but the current Parliament has a majority for a WA albeit not under the timetable Johnson wanted and possibly not even in an ideal world for this WA but the second reading showed the votes are probably there .
A more overtly pro-Remain parliament than even the current one seems the only prospect for those determined that Brexit can and must never happen.
The risk of course (and the polls suggest this is a big risk) is the Conservatives will win big and while that might please the Brexiteers and those who want us "over with", it's just the start of a process where Brexit is concerned and we have Johnson's domestic agenda which seems to consist of promising money for everything plus a tax cut. If this was coming from Labour, I wouldn't be surprised but it's all about Johnson trying to keep everyone happy.
Allegations by Panorama that EY as auditors helped to conceal $4bn of gold sales that were laundering drug profits. If true what the hell was going on in such a well run, establishment auditor? Quite bizarre.
Pretty much the same as most auditors? Not really interested in doing their job.
MarqueeMark said: "Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
They were assuming (as did I) that the EU would insist on a longer extension to avoid the hassle of continued extension requests. But they've misjudged badly. Should have set a more sensible date.
I'm new to the LibDems as you all know. But I do appreciate good politics when I see it, and the Swinson/Blackford accord is genius: 1. Both parties set to make gains in an election 2. Both parties happy to demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election 3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit 4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go 5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
I'm afraid the brutal reality is that outside Scotland, within the limits of what is likely to happen, the better the LDs do the larger the Tory majority will be. The same thing that happened in 1983.
Country before party remember. Not my fault that your party has rendered itself completely irrelevant to the real needs unelectable. The rest of us have to work really hard to provide a balance against the Tory landslide that #jc4pm chanters would still proclaim as a triumph because look how many Blairites lost their seats and now the proles will suffer the true injustice of capitalism and embrace True Socialism.
Screw that.
So you rush to call an election when the Tories are miles ahead, and call it "country before party"? That's cobblers, and your new romance is blinding you to it - the LibDems are obviously trying to maximise their seats as their first priority. Most parties do that most of the time, so it's not Original Sin, but it's delusional to pretend otherwise.
An election is coming - surely we both agree that the current impasse won't last until mid 2022? And Corbyn wants an election, as recently as Saturday week rushing up to Liverpool to demand one to a hall of cheering supporters.
Nor me. Must be a reason that we are not seeing because I think Tories have already made it clear that they will not support it.
Boris wants to get his plan through - which is fair enough. But when his plan fails I'm sure he'll quickly shift to the Swinson plan (or something very similar)
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
They were assuming (as did I) that the EU would insist on a longer extension to avoid the hassle of continued extension requests. But they've misjudged badly. Should have set a more sensible date.
It could have got very messy in parliament if they put forward a different date . If the Benn Act had asked for longer than 3 months it’s unlikely to have passed .
I do wonder whether the Lords will let the Swinson plan through. If parliament passes duly considered legislation that it thinks elections should require a 2/3rds majority, it's not really clear that it should be able to just pick that lock, or if it does, that it should be able to do so in a hurry and without reasonable discussion. Although I'd rather it passed it feels like the job of the upper house to at least slow this kind of thing down.
It does make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act so, on the "don't take the piss" principle, you could see it struck down, at least in theory.
The Lords could argue that HMG should proceed with the WAIB on a longer timetable for scrutiny and doesn't require an election since there was a comfortable majority at Second Reading. I'd be surprised if they did block it though.
The greater risk is that the Lords amends a bill in ways the government doesn't like, for example to extend the franchise to EU citizens and/or 16-17 year olds. The government might find this hard to reverse in the Commons. EU citizens are already on the electoral register (for local and EU elections) so giving them a GE vote would be very simple. On the other hand registering 16-17 year olds would be more challenging and might delay an election.
Nigelb said: "MarqueeMark said: Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
Stocky said: "If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!"
Country before party remember. Not my fault that your party has rendered itself completely irrelevant to the real needs unelectable. The rest of us have to work really hard to provide a balance against the Tory landslide that #jc4pm chanters would still proclaim as a triumph because look how many Blairites lost their seats and now the proles will suffer the true injustice of capitalism and embrace True Socialism.
Screw that.
So you rush to call an election when the Tories are miles ahead, and call it "country before party"? That's cobblers, and your new romance is blinding you to it - the LibDems are obviously trying to maximise their seats as their first priority. Most parties do that most of the time, so it's not Original Sin, but it's delusional to pretend otherwise.
An election is coming - surely we both agree that the current impasse won't last until mid 2022? And Corbyn wants an election, as recently as Saturday week rushing up to Liverpool to demand one to a hall of cheering supporters.
One of Corbyn's conditions is the Tories promising to avoid no deal in December 2020 if a trade agreement not concluded.
The Brexit Days are getting closer together, I think next ones are: * March 14 * April 7 * April 18 * April 24 * April 28 * April 30 * May 1 * May 1 * May 1 * (to be continued)
I'm new to the LibDems as you all know. But I do appreciate good politics when I see it, and the Swinson/Blackford accord is genius: 1. Both parties set to make gains in an election 2. Both parties happy to demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election 3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit 4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go 5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
I'm afraid the brutal reality is that outside Scotland, within the limits of what is likely to happen, the better the LDs do the larger the Tory majority will be. The same thing that happened in 1983.
The point here is that, without the SDP, a lot of that vote would have gone to the Tories. Which, as far as I can remember the mood of the time, is probably right - Foot was hardly a vote magnet for soft Tories.
The difference now is that Labour and the LibDems are competing for the large pool of remain voters. So the chance that what people think happened in 1983 might actually happen in 2019 is clearly there. A lot will depend on whether the LibDems manage to decisively best Labour during the campaign, or vice versa (as in 2017), and/or whether there is a successful drive to get remain voters to vote tactically in the right places.
The Brexit Days are getting closer together, I think next ones are: * March 14 * April 7 * April 18 * April 24 * April 28 * April 30 * May 1 * May 1 * May 1 * (to be continued)
The "Tories' little helpers" tag will continue to paly well with committed Labour supporters but so what?
Aside from Brexit considerations many people will reflect on which was a better period of government, the 2010-2015 LD/Con coalition or the post-2015 unfettered Tories?
The Brexit Days are getting closer together, I think next ones are: * March 14 * April 7 * April 18 * April 24 * April 28 * April 30 * May 1 * May 1 * May 1 * (to be continued)
I'm new to the LibDems as you all know. But I do appreciate good politics when I see it, and the Swinson/Blackford accord is genius: 1. Both parties set to make gains in an election 2. Both parties happy to demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election 3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit 4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go 5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
I'm afraid the brutal reality is that outside Scotland, within the limits of what is likely to happen, the better the LDs do the larger the Tory majority will be. The same thing that happened in 1983.
The point here is that, without the SDP, a lot of that vote would have gone to the Tories. Which, as far as I can remember the mood of the time, is probably right - Foot was hardly a vote magnet for soft Tories.
The difference now is that Labour and the LibDems are competing for the large pool of remain voters. So the chance that what people think happened in 1983 might actually happen in 2019 is clearly there. A lot will depend on whether the LibDems manage to decisively best Labour during the campaign, or vice versa (as in 2017), and/or whether there is a successful drive to get remain voters to vote tactically in the right places.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I'm new to the LibDems as you all know. But I do appreciate good politics when I see it, and the Swinson/Blackford accord is genius: 1. Both parties set to make gains in an election 2. Both parties happy to demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election 3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit 4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go 5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
I'm afraid the brutal reality is that outside Scotland, within the limits of what is likely to happen, the better the LDs do the larger the Tory majority will be. The same thing that happened in 1983.
The point here is that, without the SDP, a lot of that vote would have gone to the Tories. Which, as far as I can remember the mood of the time, is probably right - Foot was hardly a vote magnet for soft Tories.
The difference now is that Labour and the LibDems are competing for the large pool of remain voters. So the chance that what people think happened in 1983 might actually happen in 2019 is clearly there. A lot will depend on whether the LibDems manage to decisively best Labour during the campaign, or vice versa (as in 2017), and/or whether there is a successful drive to get remain voters to vote tactically in the right places.
Which 'difference' assumes that there isn't a large pool of remain voters who will never vote for Corbyn.
I do wonder whether the Lords will let the Swinson plan through. If parliament passes duly considered legislation that it thinks elections should require a 2/3rds majority, it's not really clear that it should be able to just pick that lock, or if it does, that it should be able to do so in a hurry and without reasonable discussion. Although I'd rather it passed it feels like the job of the upper house to at least slow this kind of thing down.
It does make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act so, on the "don't take the piss" principle, you could see it struck down, at least in theory.
The Lords could argue that HMG should proceed with the WAIB on a longer timetable for scrutiny and doesn't require an election since there was a comfortable majority at Second Reading. I'd be surprised if they did block it though.
The greater risk is that the Lords amends a bill in ways the government doesn't like, for example to extend the franchise to EU citizens and/or 16-17 year olds. The government might find this hard to reverse in the Commons. EU citizens are already on the electoral register (for local and EU elections) so giving them a GE vote would be very simple. On the other hand registering 16-17 year olds would be more challenging and might delay an election.
Most 17 year olds should be on the register already. but very few 16 year olds. SO 16 would require some administrative effort and time to reconfigure the register. A phased move to 16 with 17 as an intermediate step for the immediate election might be do-able.
It seems to me that Corbyn's key aides want an early election because they know he isn't going to stick around well into 2020. And they can't be sure of the succession.
I do wonder whether the Lords will let the Swinson plan through. If parliament passes duly considered legislation that it thinks elections should require a 2/3rds majority, it's not really clear that it should be able to just pick that lock, or if it does, that it should be able to do so in a hurry and without reasonable discussion. Although I'd rather it passed it feels like the job of the upper house to at least slow this kind of thing down.
It does make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act so, on the "don't take the piss" principle, you could see it struck down, at least in theory.
The Lords could argue that HMG should proceed with the WAIB on a longer timetable for scrutiny and doesn't require an election since there was a comfortable majority at Second Reading. I'd be surprised if they did block it though.
The greater risk is that the Lords amends a bill in ways the government doesn't like, for example to extend the franchise to EU citizens and/or 16-17 year olds. The government might find this hard to reverse in the Commons. EU citizens are already on the electoral register (for local and EU elections) so giving them a GE vote would be very simple. On the other hand registering 16-17 year olds would be more challenging and might delay an election.
The Lords are very unlikely to meddle with the franchise.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
I'm new to the LibDems as you all know. But I do appreciate good politics when I see it, and the Swinson/Blackford accord is genius: 1. Both parties setto demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election 3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit 4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go 5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
I'm afraid the brutal reality is that outside Scotland, within the limits of what is likely to happen, the better the LDs do the larger the Tory majority will be. The same thing that happened in 1983.
The point here is that, without the SDP, a lot of that vote would have gone to the Tories. Which, as far as I can remember the mood of the time, is probably right - Foot was hardly a vote magnet for soft Tories.
The difference now is that Labour and the LibDems are competing for the large pool of remain voters. So the chance that what people think happened in 1983 might actually happen in 2019 is clearly there. A lot will depend on whether the LibDems manage to decisively best Labour during the campaign, or vice versa (as in 2017), and/or whether there is a successful drive to get remain voters to vote tactically in the right places.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote by getting Tory remainers to lend them their votes they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
But on the ground Ports South is rather like Hallam - a Tory/LibDem marginal where Labour did exceptionally well to come through the middle in the unusual circumstances of 2017. I'd put money on Labour being third in both of those seats next time.
Where I agree with you is that Labour's campaign is essentially defensive and wont be looking for many gains. It follows from this that anyone concerned about Brexit who doesn't live in a Labour held seat should be looking to vote LibDem (or for the Remain Alliance, if there is one)
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
But how many seats are like Portsmouth South - very few I suggest. The Lib Dems will not be able to run an effective ground campaign in more than about 100 constituencies, they have neither the people nor the money to do more.
And what about the BXP? They've been pretty quiet recently but I don't think we should assume they have disappeared, I'd say they will take more votes from the Tories than UKIP did in 2017.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
MarqueeMark said: "Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
Saying it will end when so little has actually been decided about our future relationship would be utterly dishonest.
Doubtless this is therefore what Bozo will try to do.
Yes, as so many here have pointed out it would be the end of the beginning and the start of the serious stuff.
The only outcome that ends Brexit immediately is Revoke, but as is also regularly noted here it is not only unlikely but brings problems of a different nature.
The Brexit Days are getting closer together, I think next ones are: * March 14 * April 7 * April 18 * April 24 * April 28 * April 30 * May 1 * May 1 * May 1 * (to be continued)
The pattern could be alternating short/long extensions: short extension (to try to pass deal), long extension (who knows).
The first short extension was 14 days. This short extension is 92 days.
The first long extension was 202 days. The second long extension will be 1,327 days - 19th September 2023.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
So is Labour going to refuse to vote for an election today on the ground that it hasn't been signed, sealed and delivered yet - or because of the possibility of Son of No Deal at some point in the future?
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
Nick. Why on earth is Labour pretty clear that this is a defensive election? Could it be something to do with their failure to take a coherent position on Brexit? Or the fact that they are saddled with an unelectable Leader?
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Not true for the vote on the second reading of the WA.
I think the Lib DEms have a lot more polling info than they are letting on. Their canvassing has been massively upped in many areas plus the leafletting cult is doing what it loves best..delivering leaflets.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
But how many seats are like Portsmouth South - very few I suggest. The Lib Dems will not be able to run an effective ground campaign in more than about 100 constituencies, they have neither the people nor the money to do more.
And what about the BXP? They've been pretty quiet recently but I don't think we should assume they have disappeared, I'd say they will take more votes from the Tories than UKIP did in 2017.
The LibDems will rely, unusually, on the air war - which will be more important if the GE really is in mid December.
There'll be a lot of remain-backing money potentially on offer to a Remain Alliance, not least from business - which (the Alliance) I hope and expect the LibDems to secure and spearhead - let's hope the LDs are able to scale up their national campaign accordingly.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
Last week I got a hand delivered Brexit Party booklet. Colour, multipaged, expensive. In addition a copy of The Brexiter newspaper ( which is produced by the Brexit Party ). A party delivering multipaged colour literature certainly hasn't disappeared.
Re Homelessness I went last week to a working group on a Winter nightshelter pilot project. Previously unthinkable in our locality and reliant on churches volunteering their buildings.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Not true for the vote on the second reading of the WA.
Depends on what you make of the apparent nods and winks inside Labour
Corbyn and McDonnell are not stupid, they know very well Boris will not take the high road like May did. By the time election day comes by this time, Corbyn will be painted as an IRA sympathising, Ayottolllah but kissing, ISIS supporting, father christmas stabbing terrorist.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbynista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
It is impossible to keep emotion out of betting but you have to try if you call yourself a pro. I do call myself a pro and therefore I try very hard.
On which topic -
If the Swinson plan succeeds I as a Labour supporter will be buying size of Tory majority on the spreads in size. I am already modestly long of it but I will be dropping the 'modestly' in the event of a snap election under these terms.
If the bill for Dec 9th passes Boris Johnson does not need to wait to see what is sitting under the tree for him on the 25th.
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
So much for the PBers claiming that Macron would not allow an extension. "Not this time!"
The EU should just take the clock out of the equation and tell the UK, once they have found a way to get parliament and the government to agree then Brexit takes place one month later.
Is the PM going to commit to leaving do or die on Jan 31? If so will the media actually get him to answer what this means? Resignation? If not, it opens up another attack line for Farage - the last one was a bluff and you cant trust the tories to deliver.....
The Brexit Days are getting closer together, I think next ones are: * March 14 * April 7 * April 18 * April 24 * April 28 * April 30 * May 1 * May 1 * May 1 * (to be continued)
The pattern could be alternating short/long extensions: short extension (to try to pass deal), long extension (who knows).
The first short extension was 14 days. This short extension is 92 days.
The first long extension was 202 days. The second long extension will be 1,327 days - 19th September 2023.
You heard it here first!
This feels more like a "have a general election" extension. Last time they said do not waste the time - and to be fair we changed PM who then agreed an alternative deal.
I'm not sure what the EU will do if nothing happens between now and the end of January.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
The opposite swing happened in 2015 - so clearly these things can happen.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Labour's Brexit message is going to be "a Tory majority guarantees a Hard Brexit; Labour are the only ones who'll even give you a hope of staying in".
IMO, that will be effective in squeezing the LibDem vote (the LDs really needed it to look like an ultra-hung parliament, with it looking like no chance of a Tory majority, for their strategy to work). But the question for me is whether, in spite of that, enough Labour Leave voters switch over to Johnson to give him a healthy majority anyway.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
Ptp. Somewhat at odds with Nick Palmer’s anecdotal experience!
I seem to recall, many moons ago, that Roger had some Dutch friends who he felt were a reliable bellwether for the state of uk politics. Roger, can you take some soundings.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbynista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
The LD/Labour battles within London - where the Tories are mostly out of the running - are going to be something to witness.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
The opposite swing happened in 2015 - so clearly these things can happen.
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
So much for the PBers claiming that Macron would not allow an extension. "Not this time!"
The EU should just take the clock out of the equation and tell the UK, once they have found a way to get parliament and the government to agree then Brexit takes place one month later.
It would be logical in many ways, but the short term pressure of a "deadline" does help politicians move their position, even if both sides know the deadline isnt real as an extension far preferable to no deal.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
I think the Lib DEms have a lot more polling info than they are letting on. Their canvassing has been massively upped in many areas plus the leafletting cult is doing what it loves best..delivering leaflets.
Council by-election results have been pretty solid for some time so they have little to fear.
kinabalu said: "If the Swinson plan succeeds I as a Labour supporter will be buying size of Tory majority on the spreads in size. I am already modestly long of it but I will be dropping the 'modestly' in the event of a snap election under these terms.
If the bill for Dec 9th passes Boris Johnson does not need to wait to see what is sitting under the tree for him on the 25th."
Why are you so confident of this when we don`t know the extent of BXP involvement? If BXP field a candidate in every constituency I`ll make the bold claim now that the Tories have no chance - nil - of achieving a majority.
If BXP do not fight this election then I agree with you.
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
The opposite swing happened in 2015 - so clearly these things can happen.
Yes true. And I guess the student vote last time which clearly departed en bloc to Labour here is not made up of many of the same students as one assumes there’s a lot of churn in two years, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. The local MP whom I disagree with on just about everything is scandal free, competent, and there’s bugger all Plaid Cymru and Greens to squeeze.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbynista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
The LD/Labour battles within London - where the Tories are mostly out of the running - are going to be something to witness.
I find it amazing the Tories still have an MP in Wimbledon
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
ght be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The wae same to Labour.
I - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, ling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Agreed. Hampstead is in the heart of Remainia. I fear for Tulip.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
ght be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The wae same to Labour.
I - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, ling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Agreed. Hampstead is in the heart of Remainia. I fear for Tulip.
Is the PM going to commit to leaving do or die on Jan 31? If so will the media actually get him to answer what this means? Resignation? If not, it opens up another attack line for Farage - the last one was a bluff and you cant trust the tories to deliver.....
He'll commit to leaving well before 31st January (as long as GBP gives him a majority to do so)
Mr. Above, BP seems to have rather died down in the polls, though. Plus Farage doesn't exactly have a stellar FPTP record.
True, it may well not happen but their last spike was after the Tories failed to deliver on the promised March 31st deadline. They do not need to get to the same levels as then, just an increase of 3% or so from here could be enough to stop the Tories forming a govt.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
Ptp. Somewhat at odds with Nick Palmer’s anecdotal experience!
I seem to recall, many moons ago, that Roger had some Dutch friends who he felt were a reliable bellwether for the state of uk politics. Roger, can you take some soundings.
😃
Dutch Bellweather? Is this some sort of crossword clue, or a new contraceptive device of which I am unaware?
Nice to hear from you again. Will you be appearing a little more regularly now that Villa are back in the elite and you need no longer feel ashamed?
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
That may be so, but some polls have Labour losing nearly half their GE2017 vote, and if something like that does happen then there are going to be much bigger swings then we are used to seeing.
It is impossible to keep emotion out of betting but you have to try if you call yourself a pro. I do call myself a pro and therefore I try very hard.
On which topic -
If the Swinson plan succeeds I as a Labour supporter will be buying size of Tory majority on the spreads in size. I am already modestly long of it but I will be dropping the 'modestly' in the event of a snap election under these terms.
If the bill for Dec 9th passes Boris Johnson does not need to wait to see what is sitting under the tree for him on the 25th.
I still think there’s residual value in Labour majority bets. Not because I think it will happen but because there’s space for a bubble when Corbyn does ok in a debate, at which point I can take my winnings and look elsewhere.
Is the PM going to commit to leaving do or die on Jan 31? If so will the media actually get him to answer what this means? Resignation? If not, it opens up another attack line for Farage - the last one was a bluff and you cant trust the tories to deliver.....
He'll commit to leaving well before 31st January (as long as GBP gives him a majority to do so)
So weaker than his original and failed pledge.....
Comments
The dream hangs on just . Off to play Ode to Joy !
That date of 31st January in the Benn Act looks like a weird one. As some of us said so at the time. It only allows an election - or Boris's Deal to pass. It has royally stuffed second referendum.
The Lords could argue that HMG should proceed with the WAIB on a longer timetable for scrutiny and doesn't require an election since there was a comfortable majority at Second Reading. I'd be surprised if they did block it though.
Unlikely, but not impossible.
Also, another extension could happen.
You know what you have to do!
I doubt that this is true. I think that if HOC decided that a ref is to happen the EU would be keen to amend the date again!
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
There was never going to be a second vote with the current parliament so for Remainers it’s still a very low chance but higher than the current zero chance.
Doubtless this is therefore what Bozo will try to do.
Ideally the LibDems need a 50% share in 100 seats and less than 5% share in 500 seats (to avoid splitting the anti-Tory vote). That means a 12.5% share nationally.
This shows how misleading the raw poll share can be. Perhaps we should pay more attention to the regional shares (but smaller samples). We really need some constituency polling.
As an LD, I was initially slightly puzzled by the LD/SNP plans but it works if you believe there is, if not enthusiasm then at least a willingness to concede that a new Parliament is necessary to move things forward.
For those on the Remain side, it's a big risk but the current Parliament has a majority for a WA albeit not under the timetable Johnson wanted and possibly not even in an ideal world for this WA but the second reading showed the votes are probably there .
A more overtly pro-Remain parliament than even the current one seems the only prospect for those determined that Brexit can and must never happen.
The risk of course (and the polls suggest this is a big risk) is the Conservatives will win big and while that might please the Brexiteers and those who want us "over with", it's just the start of a process where Brexit is concerned and we have Johnson's domestic agenda which seems to consist of promising money for everything plus a tax cut. If this was coming from Labour, I wouldn't be surprised but it's all about Johnson trying to keep everyone happy.
Stocky said: "If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!"
"Which it is."
Agreed
That seems unlikely to be met.
* March 14
* April 7
* April 18
* April 24
* April 28
* April 30
* May 1
* May 1
* May 1
* (to be continued)
The difference now is that Labour and the LibDems are competing for the large pool of remain voters. So the chance that what people think happened in 1983 might actually happen in 2019 is clearly there. A lot will depend on whether the LibDems manage to decisively best Labour during the campaign, or vice versa (as in 2017), and/or whether there is a successful drive to get remain voters to vote tactically in the right places.
Aside from Brexit considerations many people will reflect on which was a better period of government, the 2010-2015 LD/Con coalition or the post-2015 unfettered Tories?
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote by getting Tory remainers to lend them their votes they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
Where I agree with you is that Labour's campaign is essentially defensive and wont be looking for many gains. It follows from this that anyone concerned about Brexit who doesn't live in a Labour held seat should be looking to vote LibDem (or for the Remain Alliance, if there is one)
And what about the BXP? They've been pretty quiet recently but I don't think we should assume they have disappeared, I'd say they will take more votes from the Tories than UKIP did in 2017.
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The only outcome that ends Brexit immediately is Revoke, but as is also regularly noted here it is not only unlikely but brings problems of a different nature.
The first short extension was 14 days. This short extension is 92 days.
The first long extension was 202 days. The second long extension will be 1,327 days - 19th September 2023.
You heard it here first!
There'll be a lot of remain-backing money potentially on offer to a Remain Alliance, not least from business - which (the Alliance) I hope and expect the LibDems to secure and spearhead - let's hope the LDs are able to scale up their national campaign accordingly.
Re Homelessness I went last week to a working group on a Winter nightshelter pilot project. Previously unthinkable in our locality and reliant on churches volunteering their buildings.
Some of which may or may not be true.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbynista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
On which topic -
If the Swinson plan succeeds I as a Labour supporter will be buying size of Tory majority on the spreads in size. I am already modestly long of it but I will be dropping the 'modestly' in the event of a snap election under these terms.
If the bill for Dec 9th passes Boris Johnson does not need to wait to see what is sitting under the tree for him on the 25th.
The EU should just take the clock out of the equation and tell the UK, once they have found a way to get parliament and the government to agree then Brexit takes place one month later.
I'm not sure what the EU will do if nothing happens between now and the end of January.
IMO, that will be effective in squeezing the LibDem vote (the LDs really needed it to look like an ultra-hung parliament, with it looking like no chance of a Tory majority, for their strategy to work). But the question for me is whether, in spite of that, enough Labour Leave voters switch over to Johnson to give him a healthy majority anyway.
I seem to recall, many moons ago, that Roger had some Dutch friends who he felt were a reliable bellwether for the state of uk politics. Roger, can you take some soundings.
😃
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
If the bill for Dec 9th passes Boris Johnson does not need to wait to see what is sitting under the tree for him on the 25th."
Why are you so confident of this when we don`t know the extent of BXP involvement? If BXP field a candidate in every constituency I`ll make the bold claim now that the Tories have no chance - nil - of achieving a majority.
If BXP do not fight this election then I agree with you.
Well - McDonnell isn`t.
Nice to hear from you again. Will you be appearing a little more regularly now that Villa are back in the elite and you need no longer feel ashamed?